How PaceMap Reads a Race
A series of articles on how a race is read before it is run, one layer at a time.
Every claim here is measured against the betting market before it is published, and the ones that fail are dropped. New articles are added as that work is done. A growing library, not a manifesto.
The part you do by feel
Most of a layered read is craft. One part of it is genuinely hard to do by hand, and that is the part worth automating.
What the draw is actually worth
The standard draw guides conflate the stall with the quality drawn there. Held quality constant, the picture changes.
What the figures don't say
A finishing position is the answer to a question, not a description of a run. The in-running prose carries information the figures cannot.
When form is information
Going, trip and course preference are not yes-or-no. The honest read is when form is information about today and when it is not.
Race shape before runners
Race shape is not commentary written afterwards. It is a rating factor that can be modelled before the race runs.
A rating is a sentence
The Official Rating is a sentence compressed to a word. Keeping the structure is what lets the other layers correct it.