Every map we publish is scored against what actually happened. These are the figures, including the months that were worse. We have not found anyone else in this market who publishes theirs.
6,918 races across 1,114 meetings · results to 28 October 2026
Why “within one” is the weaker number
The four groups are ordered, so being one out is a near miss. But that makes the figure easy to game: a model that simply put every runner in midfield — saying nothing about the race at all — would score 86.9% within one, better than we do. We publish it because you asked what the number is, not because it is the good one.
The test that means something is the shuffled map: the same groups, the same number of horses in each, assigned at random. That removes the only thing we claim to do — put the right horse in the right group — and keeps everything else. Against it the map is ahead on both measures, by 5.6 points exact and 7.4 points within one, over 63,698 runners.
| Month | Races | Runners | Right group | Within one | Named leader led |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | 977 | 9,223 | 32.4% | 75.5% | 34.8% |
| May 2026 | 940 | 8,679 | 32.1% | 75.5% | 34.5% |
| June 2026 | 973 | 8,942 | 30.4% | 73.1% | 23.6% |
| July 2026 | 1,029 | 8,952 | 28.0% | 71.6% | 18.6% |
| August 2026 | 983 | 8,814 | 29.8% | 73.9% | 30.2% |
| September 2026 | 1,033 | 9,851 | 34.6% | 75.6% | 34.1% |
| October 2026 | 983 | 9,237 | 36.6% | 76.4% | 32.3% |
Every runner is placed in one of four groups before the race: led, prominent, midfield or held up. Afterwards, the in-running comment — the official note on how the horse actually ran — is read back and turned into the same four groups. The map is right when the two agree.
That is a deliberately hard test, and the comment is written by someone with no interest in whether we were right. Nothing here is scored against our own judgement of how a race went. It is also why both figures are shown beside what the same map scores when the horses are shuffled: on four ordered groups, a raw percentage on its own can be made to look like anything.
What this is not. It is not a strike rate and not a profit figure. PaceMap does not tip and these numbers say nothing about whether a bet would have won. They say how often the race was read correctly, which is the only thing we claim to do.
The figures are rebuilt automatically as results come in, from the same files that produce the result shown on every past race. How the maps are built →
Judge it yourself.
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