Archive›Aintree · 10 April 2026

Aintree

10 April 2026 · 7 races

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1:45 — William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)

2m4f · Soft · HCAP · 22 runners

Lead contested: Swindon Village v Top JimmyFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Top Jimmy led, as the map showed.

Wellington Arch won at 7.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

12 of 22 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Swindon VillageTop Jimmy

Prominent · 9

Wellington ArchJoyeuseFingle BridgeFiercely ProudCaptain TeagueJet To VegasHot FussBowmoreJazzy Matty

Midfield · 4

TrustintimesSir GalahadBallykinlarIke Sport

Hold Up · 7

Favour And FortuneRambo TIndeevar BleuAct Of AuthorityFiveonefiveFaivoirEmid'io Pepe

Swindon Village and Top Jimmy will contest the early lead, with Top Jimmy's front-running style likely to dominate given his recent aggressive tactics. Nine runners want prominent positions including Captain Teague, Joyeuse, and Wellington Arch, creating a bunched field through the middle stages that will compress behind the leaders. The pace will be honest but not frantic over 2m4f, with the real race beginning after the second-last hurdle when the prominent pack engages. This setup clearly favours hold-up horses who can avoid the early traffic and finish strongly, as the bunched prominent runners will create interference when the pace quickens.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Thrive

60% probability

If the prominent pack bunches and creates traffic problems from 3 out

The early honest pace set by Top Jimmy and Swindon Village will string out the field nicely, allowing patient hold-up riders to pick their way through. Late-running types like Indeevar Bleu and Act Of Authority can use their proven stamina to power past tiring leaders.

Indeevar BleuFavour And FortuneAct Of AuthorityRambo T

Prominent Tactical Winner

25% probability

If one of the prominent runners can secure a clean run and avoid interference

Captain Teague or Wellington Arch could use their forward positions to strike at the right moment, avoiding the squeeze that catches others. Their prominent style lets them respond when the pace lifts without being caught in traffic.

Wellington ArchCaptain TeagueHot FussFiercely Proud

Front Runner Stays On

10% probability

If Top Jimmy or Swindon Village can maintain a steady gallop without being pressed too hard early

The leaders could steal a march if the prominent pack hesitates or gets tangled up behind them. Top Jimmy's proven stamina at this trip could see him hold on if not pressured into a speed duel.

Top JimmySwindon VillageTrustintimesJet To Vegas

Pace Collapse Favours Closers

5% probability

If both front runners go too fast or fade dramatically, leaving a slow pace

A tactical race would emerge with hold-up horses having too much to do from the back, potentially allowing mid-division runners to capitalize. This unlikely scenario would need multiple pace angles to fail.

BallykinlarIke SportBowmoreFaivoir

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Top Jimmy's jumping reliability after his fatal fall in the Imperial Cup when his technique deserted him under pressure

WATCH

Traffic problems developing from 3 out as nine prominent runners including Captain Teague, Joyeuse, and Wellington Arch converge in limited racing room

WATCH

Indeevar Bleu's fitness after 105-day absence and wind surgery, though his fresh record suggests he can perform first time back

NOTE

French import Emid'io Pepe making his British debut for Dan Skelton after 115 days off and three wins in France

NOTE

Lewis Saunders' 5lb claim helping Act Of Authority get into the race off just 159lbs effective weight with cheekpieces applied

2:20 — William Hill Mildmay Novices' Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race)

3m1f · Soft · G1 · 8 runners

Lead contested: Regent's Stroll v Miami MagicFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Jordans Cross and Miami Magic led, as the map showed.

Gold Dancer won at 4.33 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Regent's StrollMiami Magic

Prominent · 3

Gold DancerJordans CrossCrest Of Fortune

Midfield · 1

Doyen Quest

Hold Up · 2

SalverWendigo

Regent's Stroll and Miami Magic will ensure a genuine gallop from the start, with both confirmed front-runners likely to dispute the early lead over this staying trip. Doyen Quest also tends to lead which could create additional pressure up front, forcing a strong pace throughout the first two miles. The combination of the testing 3m1f distance, good to soft conditions, and multiple pace-setters will create a stamina test that should suit the hold-up performers. This race shape clearly favours the closers and hold-up horses who can conserve energy early and finish strongly.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Early Pace

45% probability

If Regent's Stroll and Miami Magic both go forward aggressively from the start

The pace will be genuine throughout, setting up the race perfectly for the hold-up horses who can pick off tiring leaders in the final half-mile. Salver and Wendigo's patient tactics become a major asset as front-runners weaken.

SalverWendigoGold DancerDoyen Quest

Moderate Gallop Setup

30% probability

If one of the main pace-setters settles more than expected early

The race unfolds at a more measured tempo allowing prominent racers to get into contention without over-racing. Gold Dancer and Jordans Cross can position ideally to strike turning for home.

Gold DancerJordans CrossWendigoMiami Magic

Pace Collapse Late

15% probability

If the early leaders go too fast and tie up dramatically in the final furlong

Regent's Stroll and Miami Magic burn each other out with their early battle, creating opportunities for horses finishing from further back. The stamina test becomes extreme favouring only the strongest stayers.

SalverGold DancerWendigoCrest Of Fortune

Front Runner Survives

10% probability

If Miami Magic or Regent's Stroll can steal a march and avoid early pace pressure

One of the leaders gets an easier time than expected and has enough left to repel late challenges. The tactical battle fails to materialise as planned.

Miami MagicRegent's StrollWendigoJordans Cross

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Regent's Stroll must wear his hood to maintain focus after losing concentration when going hoodless at Newbury

WATCH

Doyen Quest's 82-day absence could leave him vulnerable for fitness in this competitive Grade 1 contest

NOTE

Miami Magic and Regent's Stroll's early battle will set the tactical tone for how the entire race unfolds

WATCH

Jordans Cross showed promise before his Cheltenham fall but this represents a significant step up in class

NOTE

Gold Dancer's recent form revival suggests Willie Mullins has found the key to unlocking his earlier promise

2:55 — ThatPrizeGuy Top Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race)

2m½f · Soft · G1 · 6 runners

Lead contested: Sober Glory v SinnatraFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Sinnatra and Sober Glory led, as the map showed.

Storming George won at 17.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Sober GlorySinnatra

Prominent · 1

La Conquiere

Midfield · 1

Storming George

Hold Up · 2

Baron NoirStarting Fifteen

Sober Glory and Sinnatra are both confirmed leaders who will contest the early pace, with Sober Glory having looked best when making the running and Sinnatra showing natural speed despite his recent longer distance win. La Conquiere will sit prominent just behind these two, while Baron Noir, Starting Fifteen and Storming George all prefer to come from behind. The dual pace angle should create an honest gallop over this sharp 2m½f trip, with the leaders potentially setting it up for the hold-up horses if they get embroiled in a speed duel. This pace scenario clearly favours the hold-up merchants who can capitalize on any early burn-up between the front-runners.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Capitalize

45% probability

If Sober Glory and Sinnatra engage in early pace duel

The sustained early gallop will stretch the field and tire the leaders, allowing the patient runners to pick up the pieces in the final half-mile. Baron Noir and Storming George are perfectly positioned to benefit from this likely tactical setup.

Baron NoirStorming GeorgeStarting FifteenLa Conquiere

Sober Glory Dominates Solo

30% probability

If Sinnatra fails to match Sober Glory's early pace

Sober Glory gets an uncontested lead and can dictate fractions to suit his running, utilizing his progressive profile and strong front-running record. His versatility on ground and impressive recent form make him hard to peg back when controlling the race.

Sober GloryLa ConquiereBaron NoirSinnatra

Pace Collapses Early

15% probability

If both leaders go too conservatively in opening stages

A slowly-run race becomes a sprint finish where natural speed and class tell, favoring those with tactical pace who can quicken. La Conquiere's prominent style and Sinnatra's underlying speed could prove decisive in a bunched finish.

SinnatraLa ConquiereSober GloryBaron Noir

Starting Fifteen Surprises

10% probability

If the Irish raider gets a perfect stalking trip

Starting Fifteen times his run to perfection from his hold-up position while the market leaders neutralize each other up front. His Christmas win shows he has the ability when things fall right, despite his long absence.

Starting FifteenBaron NoirStorming GeorgeSober Glory

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Sober Glory and Sinnatra both going forward early - if they engage in speed duel it sets up perfectly for closers

WATCH

Starting Fifteen's 68-day absence and tendency to be free-going could see him poorly positioned or ring-rusty

NOTE

La Conquiere stepping up to face males for first time after exclusive campaign against mares

WATCH

Baron Noir and Storming George both relying on pace scenario - if leaders go steady they'll have work to do

NOTE

Tom Bellamy takes over on Baron Noir while Harry Skelton maintains partnership with Sinnatra for in-form Dan Skelton yard

3:30 — JCB Melling Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race)

2m4f · Soft · G1 · 7 runners

Gidleigh Park to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Solness led; the map had Gidleigh Park in front.

Grey Dawning won at 6.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Gidleigh Park

Prominent · 3

Heart WoodSolnessL'Eau du Sud

Midfield · 2

JPR OneSaint Segal

Hold Up · 1

Grey Dawning

Gidleigh Park will set the pace as the sole confirmed front-runner, with Saint Segal potentially challenging him early given his progressive front-running style this season. The prominent quartet of Heart Wood, L'Eau du Sud, JPR One and Solness will track the leaders in the first half, while Grey Dawning sits patiently at the back as the only hold-up runner. With just one pure leader and good ground conditions, this sets up a sustainable gallop that won't overly compromise the early pace-setters. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners and pace-pressers who can position close enough to strike turning for home, as Grey Dawning faces a significant task from the rear in a small, competitive field.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Power Play

45% probability

If Heart Wood or L'Eau du Sud track the pace perfectly and kick approaching two out

These Dan Skelton/De Bromhead runners have the class and tactical speed to exploit the moderate early gallop. Their Grade 1 credentials shine when they can position ideally behind a single front-runner.

Heart WoodL'Eau du SudJPR OneSolness

Pace Collapse Finish

30% probability

If Gidleigh Park and Saint Segal go too fast early or fade turning for home

The race becomes a sprint from the last fence, suiting Grey Dawning's devastating finishing kick from the rear. His hold-up style becomes an asset when the early pace burns out.

Grey DawningSolnessHeart WoodJPR One

Front End Holds

15% probability

If Gidleigh Park maintains a steady tempo and stays resolute in the final furlong

The 83-day break could have freshened him perfectly for Harry Fry, and with no serious pace pressure he gets first run. Saint Segal's progressive season also makes him dangerous if tracking the leader.

Gidleigh ParkSaint SegalL'Eau du SudHeart Wood

Solness Strikes Late

10% probability

If the pace is steady and Solness gets the strong gallop he needs over this trip

The return of cheekpieces and softer conditions suit this Joseph O'Brien runner perfectly. His class emerges in a truly-run race where his stamina kicks in.

SolnessJPR OneHeart WoodGrey Dawning

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Gidleigh Park could have the race at his mercy if making a clean jump at the last fence with first run on the field

WATCH

Grey Dawning needs the pace to collapse or strong early tempo to unleash his finishing kick from the rear

NOTE

Saint Segal's jumping under pressure will be crucial if he tries to match strides with Gidleigh Park early

NOTE

Heart Wood and L'Eau du Sud's positioning turning for home determines if either can use their Grade 1 class

WATCH

Solness needs to settle better than his last run when the visor made him too keen throughout

4:05 — Randox Topham Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)

2m5f · Soft · HCAP · 30 runners

6 vying for the leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Madara and Mahons Glory and Il Est Francais led, as the map showed.

Will The Wise won at 10.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

10 of 27 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 6

Il Est FrancaisIle AtlantiqueComing Up EasyConflatedMahons GloryLisnamult Lad

Prominent · 12

MatataHitmanCroke ParkEldorado AllenWill The WiseAddragooleSoul IconViroflayPrairie WolfO'Moore ParkBill BaxterTeddy Blue

Midfield · 4

Theatre NativePrimozPour Les FillesIndiana Jones

Hold Up · 8

Gentleman De MeeMadaraBoombawnBooster BobPeaky BoyThe King Of PrsJipcotExcello

Il Est Francais, Ile Atlantique, Conflated, Mahons Glory, Lisnamult Lad and Coming Up Easy will ensure a relentless gallop from the start in this ultra-competitive handicap. The sustained pace over 2m5f on soft ground will test stamina reserves to the maximum, with the large field creating additional interference and forcing horses to race keenly. Hold-up horses like Madara, Gentleman De Mee and Boombawn will benefit from the strong gallop stretching the field, allowing them to pick off tiring leaders. This race shape strongly favours patient hold-up performers who can stay the trip and have the class to quicken when others weaken.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Gallop Suits Closers

55% probability

If the six confirmed front-runners maintain a brutal gallop throughout

The pace will collapse the field in the final half-mile, setting up perfectly for classy hold-up horses to sweep past exhausted leaders. Madara and Gentleman De Mee have the class and stamina to capitalize on this scenario.

MadaraGentleman De MeeBoombawnExcello

Tactical Battle Benefits Class

25% probability

If early leaders get pulled up by jockeys concerned about the pace

The race becomes more tactical with prominent racers able to conserve energy for a sustained drive from 3f out. Matata and Will The Wise can dictate terms and prove hard to peg back.

MatataWill The WiseViroflayPrairie Wolf

Front Runner Steals It

12% probability

If one pacemaker gets a crucial few lengths advantage turning for home

Il Est Francais or Coming Up Easy could exploit their class advantage by getting first run on exhausted chasers. The soft ground will make it harder for closers to reel them in.

Il Est FrancaisComing Up EasyMahons GloryConflated

Carnage Creates Outsider

8% probability

If multiple fallers and mistakes eliminate market leaders

The race becomes a war of attrition where a lightly-weighted outsider with stamina can emerge from the chaos. Primoz or Teddy Blue could benefit from others' misfortunes.

PrimozTeddy BlueJipcotBill Baxter

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Il Est Francais and Coming Up Easy both return after 100+ days off which could leave them short of peak fitness

WATCH

Madara faces 10lb rise from Cheltenham win but Harry Skelton's booking over stablemate Boombawn is telling

WATCH

The six confirmed front-runners will create early carnage if they all go too fast from the start

NOTE

Will The Wise retains the tongue-tie that helped him finish second to Madara at Cheltenham

NOTE

Viroflay carries 5lb claimer Miss Olive Nicholls which reduces his burden significantly in this competitive heat

4:40 — Oddschecker Sefton Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race)

3m½f · Soft · G1 · 13 runners

6 vying for the leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Dalston Lad led, as the map showed.

Zeus Power won at 4.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 6

Johnny's JuryZeus PowerNo Drama This EndDalston LadGood Girl KathleenTalk To The Man

Prominent · 4

Mondoui'boyKripticjimFrankie JohnCatchintsavo

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 3

Shadow PaddyHarbour IslandSeaniecon

Six confirmed front runners (Johnny's Jury, Zeus Power, No Drama This End, Good Girl Kathleen, Talk To The Man, Dalston Lad) will create a ferocious gallop from the start in this Grade 1 over 3m½f on soft ground. The pace will be relentless early with multiple leaders vying for position, before the combination of stamina demands and testing conditions takes its toll after the final flight. This brutal tempo will set up perfectly for the hold-up horses and prominent racers with tactical speed, as the early leaders are likely to pay for their exertions in the closing stages.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Gallop Collapse

55% probability

If the six front runners engage in early pace warfare

The relentless gallop will crack most leaders in the final 2f, allowing closers like Seaniecon and Harbour Island to pick up the pieces with their superior finishing kicks. Hold-up horses will benefit most from this stamina-sapping scenario.

SeanieconHarbour IslandMondoui'boyKripticjim

Dominant Front Runner

25% probability

If one leader breaks clear early and avoids the pace duel

A horse like No Drama This End or Dalston Lad could dictate terms alone and use their class to repel late challengers. Their proven Grade 1/2 ability becomes decisive when not compromised by pace pressure.

No Drama This EndDalston LadJohnny's JuryZeus Power

Tactical Prominent Win

15% probability

If prominent racers avoid the early battle but stay close enough

Horses like Mondoui'boy and Kripticjim can track the pace war from ideal positions 3-4 lengths off the lead. They'll have enough left to strike when the leaders weaken but won't need the ground that pure hold-up horses require.

Mondoui'boyKripticjimFrankie JohnCatchintsavo

Pace Holds Strong

5% probability

If the soft ground prevents the early pace from being truly destructive

The leaders maintain their advantage to the line with one proving best of the front rank. This requires the going to ride slower than it appears and stamina to hold out.

Johnny's JuryZeus PowerNo Drama This EndTalk To The Man

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Johnny's Jury, Zeus Power, and No Drama This End all want to lead early - if they engage in a speed duel it will set up the race for closers

WATCH

Dalston Lad hasn't run for 55 days while Shadow Paddy is returning from a 174-day absence - both face fitness questions

WATCH

Good Girl Kathleen showed disappointing form when favourite last time and her 62-day break adds uncertainty

NOTE

Seaniecon and Harbour Island will be held up early - watch for them to be given plenty of room to mount their challenges

NOTE

The soft ground could play slower than advertised - if the early pace isn't strong enough, prominent runners like Mondoui'boy become more dangerous

5:15 — Debenhams Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys' And Amateur Riders' Race) (GBB Race)

2m½f · Soft · HCAP · 22 runners

Pourquoi Pas Papa to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Captain Ryan Matt led; the map had Pourquoi Pas Papa in front.

Laafi won at 21.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up.

7 of 21 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Pourquoi Pas Papa

Prominent · 9

Captain Ryan MattRubber BallLitleangel DuseuilStaticSherminatorEhteyatWandering EgoMelonHarry Lowes

Midfield · 5

GooloogongNo Ordinary JoeAfadilMr McLoughlanStar Of Guiting

Hold Up · 7

Wild Bill HickokLaafiThe Mighty CeltWreckless EricLast KingdomCharlusHamsiyann

Pourquoi Pas Papa is the only confirmed front runner in this 22-runner field, giving him an uncontested lead early on. However, 9 horses want prominent positions including Sherminator, Harry Lowes, Static, Litleangel Duseuil and Wandering Ego, creating a wall of runners tracking the leader and inevitable congestion turning for home. The large field and soft ground will create a searching test of stamina, with hold-up horses like Wreckless Eric, The Mighty Celt and Star Of Guiting getting the perfect setup. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can navigate the traffic and produce late kicks when the prominent brigade weakens.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Heroes Strike

55% probability

If the prominent pack goes hard chasing Pourquoi Pas Papa and creates a strong pace

The large field splits the pace nicely and hold-up horses get perfect cover before unleashing finishing kicks when the leaders weaken. Patient riders on proven finishers capitalize as the prominent brigade pays for their exertions.

Wreckless EricThe Mighty CeltStar Of GuitingLast Kingdom

Prominent Power Play

25% probability

If the 9 prominent runners settle well and avoid early scrimmaging behind Pourquoi Pas Papa

The mid-race congestion isn't as severe as feared and a prominent runner with tactical speed can kick clear before the hold-up horses get organized. Class and current form tell in the finish.

SherminatorHarry LowesLitleangel DuseuilStatic

Lone Leader Lasts

12% probability

If Pourquoi Pas Papa gets soft fractions and the prominent pack hesitates to take him on

The leader builds an unassailable advantage while the field behind argues, and his stamina reserves prove decisive on the testing ground. The chasing pack leaves their runs too late.

Pourquoi Pas PapaWandering EgoMelonStatic

Traffic Chaos Helps

8% probability

If the prominent congestion causes serious interference and stops several fancied runners

A horse that gets a clear run or switches wide avoids the trouble that befalls the market leaders. An unfancied runner with the right trip capitalizes on others' misfortune.

GooloogongAfadilEhteyatMr McLoughlan

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for severe interference 2-3 out when 9 prominent runners including Sherminator, Static, and Litleangel Duseuil hit the front rank simultaneously

WATCH

Monitor if Pourquoi Pas Papa gets uncontested fractions early as the only leader, could steal crucial advantage

WATCH

Observe amateur rider Mr J L Gleeson on Captain Ryan Matt in the prominent pack - inexperience could cause trouble in big field

NOTE

Check market support for Wild Bill Hickok returning after 167 days - any confidence suggests hidden ability

NOTE

Watch for late moves from Wreckless Eric and The Mighty Celt who both need the race to develop into a staying test

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 10 April 2026.

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