Archive›Aintree · 15 May 2026

Aintree

15 May 2026 · 8 races

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4:35 — Inkerman London Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m1f · Good · NOV · 6 runners

3 vying for the leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Jet Renegade led; the map had Road To Wembley and Maskarvel and Phantom Gold in front.

Road To Wembley won at 1.80 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Road To WembleyMaskarvelPhantom Gold

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 1

Into Battle

Hold Up · 2

Red NileJet Renegade

Road To Wembley, Maskarvel and Phantom Gold will ensure a strong gallop from the outset in this small field. Road To Wembley brings proven 2m1f class and Sean Bowen's tactical awareness, while Maskarvel has been consistent in similar company but carries less weight. The trio will stretch the field early, creating a searching test of stamina over Aintree's demanding hurdles track. This genuine pace heavily favours the hold-up horses who can pick up the pieces, particularly those with proven tactical speed.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Benefit

65% probability

If the three pace-setters maintain a strong gallop throughout

The sustained pace will find out the stamina reserves of the leaders, allowing Red Nile and Into Battle to use their superior class ratings and finishing kicks. Both have the tactical speed to close from off the pace when the leaders weaken.

Red NileInto BattleRoad To WembleyJet Renegade

Road To Wembley Sustains

20% probability

If Road To Wembley can control the pace and outlast his rivals

Sean Bowen's tactical nous could see him dictate terms from the front, using his horse's proven 2m1f ability to stretch clear when the others weaken. His recent Aintree experience and higher weight rating give him the edge over fellow leaders.

Road To WembleyMaskarvelInto BattleRed Nile

Maskarvel Outbattles Leaders

10% probability

If Maskarvel's consistent form and weight advantage tells

The lighter-weighted runner could prove toughest of the pace-setters, with Jonathan Burke able to sit just off Road To Wembley before striking. His regular placed efforts suggest he's overdue a win in this grade.

MaskarvelPhantom GoldRoad To WembleyInto Battle

Jet Renegade Late Surge

5% probability

If the pace collapses and Jet Renegade finds his best form

A messy tactical affair could suit the inconsistent hold-up runner if he recaptures his best efforts from earlier in the season. However, his poor recent form and trainer's current struggle make this unlikely.

Jet RenegadeRed NileInto BattleRoad To Wembley

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Road To Wembley could dictate the entire race if Sean Bowen gets first run on the leaders and sustains his kick

WATCH

Red Nile's fitness after 735 days layoff remains a major unknown despite his superior class rating

NOTE

Maskarvel's weight advantage could prove decisive if he can stay with Road To Wembley's early pace-setting

WATCH

Into Battle needs the pace to be strong enough to set up his finishing kick from his typical hold-up position

NOTE

Phantom Gold's headgear suggests connections expect improvement but the class gap looks significant

5:10 — Ha Civils Franny Blennerhassett Memorial Mares' Handicap Hurdle

2m4f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

I C U In My Dreams to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Roaring Home and Magical Maggie led; the map had I C U In My Dreams in front.

Roaring Home won at 6.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield.

2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

I C U In My Dreams

Prominent · 3

Masked DanceMagical MaggieAtlantic City

Midfield · 2

Roaring HomeGolden Glance

Hold Up · 2

My ChiquitaMermaids Cave

I C U In My Dreams will lead unopposed from the start, with no other confirmed front runners in this small field of eight. The prominent runners Magical Maggie, Atlantic City and Masked Dance will track behind but are unlikely to pressure the leader early over this extended 2m4f trip. This sets up a controlled pace that will build gradually, with the real action coming from the turn as the hold-up horses My Chiquita, Roaring Home, Mermaids Cave and Golden Glance attempt to close from off the pace. This tactical scenario strongly favours the hold-up horses who can time their challenges late against a vulnerable leader.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If I C U In My Dreams sets uncontested fractions and fades turning for home...

The patient riders on My Chiquita, Roaring Home and Mermaids Cave will have perfectly timed their runs to sweep past a weakening leader. This plays directly into the strengths of the hold-up brigade who thrive when allowed to close late.

My ChiquitaMermaids CaveRoaring HomeMagical Maggie

Prominent Pair Strike

20% probability

If Magical Maggie or Atlantic City press forward earlier than expected to put pressure on the leader...

One of the prominent runners seizes the initiative approaching two out and has enough left to hold off the late closers. The race becomes more genuinely run, suiting those who can combine early positioning with stamina.

Atlantic CityMagical MaggieMasked DanceMy Chiquita

Leader Maintains Advantage

10% probability

If I C U In My Dreams gets soft fractions and kicks clear before the field can organize...

The front runner exploits the tactical nature of the race by stealing crucial lengths before the hold-up horses can respond. The lack of early pace pressure allows the leader to find a winning turn of foot.

I C U In My DreamsMasked DanceAtlantic CityMagical Maggie

Pace Collapse Scramble

5% probability

If the early pace is exceptionally slow and the race becomes a sprint finish...

The race turns into a messy affair where positioning and luck matter more than tactics. Any horse able to find racing room and maintain momentum could prevail in a blanket finish.

Masked DanceAtlantic CityMy ChiquitaRoaring Home

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

I C U In My Dreams getting uncontested lead - if fractions are too soft early the field may not catch the leader

WATCH

My Chiquita's fitness after 246-day layoff - any signs of rustiness could derail the hold-up scenario

NOTE

Atlantic City's positioning from the start - needs to be closer than usual given the likely lack of early pace

NOTE

Roaring Home's jumping rhythm early - must travel smoothly to be effective in the closing stages

WATCH

The overall pace through the first mile - if too slow it completely changes the tactical complexion

5:45 — #hameansmore Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m4f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

The Flier Begley likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Southoftheborder won at 5.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

The Flier Begley

Prominent · 3

ParisencoreBleu d'EnferBreizh River

Midfield · 2

Fringill DikeSouthoftheborder

Hold Up · 3

GenoisCoastguard StationMy Noble Lord

The Flier Begley is the sole confirmed pace-setter and will dictate proceedings from the front without pressure, creating a sustainable gallop throughout the 2m4f trip. With seven prominent runners bunched behind including Parisencore, Southoftheborder, Bleu d'Enfer, Fringill Dike and Breizh River, the pace will be genuine but controlled rather than frantic. The three hold-up horses (Coastguard Station, My Noble Lord, Genois) will rely on the sustained gallop setting up their finishing kicks. This race shape strongly favours the prominent runners who can track the pace and kick clear before the closers get organised.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

55% probability

If The Flier Begley maintains a solid gallop and the prominent brigade stay handy

The sustained pace will suit those tracking just behind the leader, allowing them to strike before the back-markers can mount their challenge. Horses like Southoftheborder and Breizh River are perfectly positioned to exploit this tactical advantage.

SouthoftheborderBreizh RiverParisencoreBleu d'Enfer

Hold-Up Horses Strike

25% probability

If the pace becomes too steady in the middle sections allowing closers to get into contention

The lack of early pressure would enable the hold-up horses to close the gap and unleash their finishing speed in the final furlong. Genois and My Noble Lord have the class and finishing kick to capitalise on such circumstances.

GenoisMy Noble LordCoastguard StationSouthoftheborder

Front Runner Stays

12% probability

If The Flier Begley finds the sustained pace suits his stamina and stays clear

His uncontested lead could prove decisive if the chasers fail to coordinate their challenges effectively. The 11-year-old's experience at Aintree and lack of early pressure would play into his hands perfectly.

The Flier BegleyParisencoreBreizh RiverGenois

Pace Collapse Surprise

8% probability

If the early pace becomes crawling slow and turns into a sprint finish

A tactical affair would completely change the complexion, potentially favouring horses with the best turn of foot regardless of position. This would be the least likely outcome given The Flier Begley's front-running style but could suit the classier animals.

My Noble LordGenoisFringill DikeCoastguard Station

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

The Flier Begley dictating a steady pace could compromise the hold-up horses' chances completely

WATCH

Fringill Dike wearing blinkers for the first time - could either spark improvement or cause over-racing

NOTE

Breizh River and Southoftheborder both in good recent form and perfectly positioned tactically behind the leader

WATCH

My Noble Lord is the youngest horse in the field at five years old - stamina for 2m4f still to be fully proven

NOTE

Genois needs the pace to be genuine throughout to show his best - any slowing up could blunt his finishing kick

6:20 — Hatfields Jaguar Land Rover Handicap Hurdle

2m4f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

Fingal's Hill to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Static led; the map had Fingal's Hill in front.

Ike Sport won at 4.50 — was held up, as the map had it.

3 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Fingal's Hill

Prominent · 4

Brewin'upastormStaticLuttrell LadLightningupourdays

Midfield · 3

SmokeringinthedarkEl GalacticoBreak Point

Hold Up · 3

Rambo TIke SportLast Kingdom

Fingal's Hill will set the pace from the front with no obvious challengers for the early lead, creating a controlled tempo throughout. The prominent runners Brewin'upastorm, Static, Lightningupourdays and Luttrell Lad will track behind but won't apply significant early pressure. With a large contingent of hold-up horses including Rambo T, Smokeringinthedark, El Galactico, Ike Sport, Last Kingdom and Break Point, the race will develop into a steady gallop building to a finish where stamina and tactical positioning matter most. This sustainable pace and competitive finish strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can avoid the scramble.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Front Running

45% probability

If Fingal's Hill maintains a steady tempo without significant early pressure from the prominent pack.

The veteran gets an uncontested lead and can dictate terms, while the hold-up brigade face a wall of horses in the straight. Front-runners and prominent racers benefit from cleaner runs and avoided traffic.

Fingal's HillStaticBrewin'upastormLightningupourdays

Late Hold-Up Surge

30% probability

If the pace becomes too slow and the large hold-up contingent can organise a collective late charge.

The patient tactics pay dividends as fresh legs sweep past tiring leaders in the final furlong. Class horses with finishing kicks capitalise on over-generous fractions set by Fingal's Hill.

El GalacticoRambo TSmokeringinthedarkIke Sport

Prominent Tracker Victory

15% probability

If Brewin'upastorm or Static apply enough pressure to prevent Fingal's Hill from getting too comfortable.

The race becomes truly run with early positioning crucial, favouring those who can sit handy without doing too much work. The prominent horses get first run on the leader while avoiding the hold-up traffic.

Brewin'upastormStaticLightningupourdaysLuttrell Lad

Pace Collapse Scramble

10% probability

If Fingal's Hill goes too slowly and creates a messy sprint finish with traffic problems.

The race becomes a lottery with positioning and racing room decisive rather than merit. Horses drawn well or finding gaps benefit while better horses get trapped.

Break PointLast KingdomStaticLightningupourdays

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Fingal's Hill setting too slow a pace early could create chaotic finish favouring wrong horses with traffic problems deciding outcome

WATCH

Brewin'upastorm and Static are the main threats to press Fingal's Hill but if they sit too quiet the pace becomes uncompetitive

NOTE

El Galactico and Smokeringinthedark need the prominent horses to ensure adequate gallop for their hold-up tactics to be effective

WATCH

Break Point's 249-day absence makes him a fitness concern despite useful form when fresh previously

NOTE

The hold-up contingent of six horses could create significant traffic problems in straight if pace is steady throughout

6:55 — Huyton Asphalt Franny Blennerhassett Memorial Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

3m1f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Lead contested: Bumpy Evans v Taxus BaccataHISTORIC

How it ran

Jacks Parrot led; the map had Bumpy Evans and Taxus Baccata in front.

Taxus Baccata won at 8.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Bumpy EvansTaxus Baccata

Prominent · 4

CalimysticLoughderg RoccoErne RiverMy Bobby Dazzler

Midfield · 1

Aboutdamntime

Hold Up · 3

FortunedefortunataRegardeJacks Parrot

Bumpy Evans and Taxus Baccata will contest the early lead, with Bumpy Evans likely to take them along at a strong gallop given his recent aggressive front-running form. Four runners (Calimystic, Erne River, Loughderg Rocco, My Bobby Dazzler) all want prominent positions, creating serious traffic problems approaching the business end. The sustained pace from the dual leaders will stretch the field, but the prominent congestion means positioning battles will be crucial 3-4 furlongs out. This race shape strongly favours the hold-up horses who can avoid the early scrimmaging and deliver their challenge late when the pace casualties emerge.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If the early pace is genuine and the prominent runners get caught in traffic

The strong gallop from Bumpy Evans and Taxus Baccata will find out the prominent brigade, while clean runs from the back prove decisive. Late-closers can sweep past tiring pace-setters and congested prominent runners.

Jacks ParrotRegardeAboutdamntimeFortunedefortunata

Prominent Position Perfect

25% probability

If one of the prominent runners secures an ideal position just off the pace

The winner threads between the leaders without getting stuck behind the wall of prominent runners. Superior class tells when they get first run on the leaders.

CalimysticLoughderg RoccoMy Bobby DazzlerErne River

Front Runner Survives

15% probability

If Bumpy Evans or Taxus Baccata gets loose on the front end

The leader builds an unassailable advantage while the prominent runners mark each other out of it. The hold-up horses have too much ground to make up.

Bumpy EvansTaxus BaccataCalimysticMy Bobby Dazzler

Pace Collapse Surprise

5% probability

If both leaders go too fast early and stop quickly

The race becomes a sprint finish between whoever avoided the early pace battle. Mid-division runners who stayed out of trouble inherit the race.

My Bobby DazzlerLoughderg RoccoRegardeJacks Parrot

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch Calimystic and Loughderg Rocco getting trapped behind the wall of prominent runners 3 furlongs out

WATCH

Monitor if Bumpy Evans goes too fast early trying to dominate Taxus Baccata and burns out

NOTE

Check if Jacks Parrot and Regarde can secure clean passages from their hold-up positions

WATCH

Observe whether the prominent quartet creates a bottleneck turning for home

NOTE

Note if Charlie Maggs can position Fortunedefortunata properly in this tactical puzzle

7:30 — Mental Health Awareness Week Handicap Hurdle (Div I)

2m1f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

Lead contested: Grey Skies v Spartan TimesHISTORIC

How it ran

Grey Skies led, as the map showed.

A Good Yomp won at 10.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Grey SkiesSpartan Times

Prominent · 3

Lively CitizenJuan BermudezBook Of Secrets

Midfield · 3

Land Of PuntPrometheanA Good Yomp

Hold Up · 3

JamadaUhtred RagnarsonTheophilos

Grey Skies and Spartan Times will ensure a genuine gallop from the start, with both confirmed front-runners likely to dispute the early lead over this testing 2m1f trip. The honest pace will stretch the field out and create a true test of stamina, particularly with 11 runners providing good depth. This sustained gallop will expose any fitness doubts and favor horses with proven staying power who can quicken off a strong pace. The race shape strongly favors prominent racers and hold-up horses with tactical speed, as pure front-runners may pay for the early exertions.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Sustained gallop holds

45% probability

If Grey Skies and Spartan Times maintain a solid pace throughout without one capitulating early

The strong pace plays to the strengths of horses who can travel well behind the leaders and have a turn of foot. Jamada and Uhtred Ragnarson can use their hold-up styles to maximum effect off this gallop.

JamadaUhtred RagnarsonJuan BermudezLand Of Punt

Front runners collapse late

30% probability

If the early pace battle between Grey Skies and Spartan Times becomes unsustainable in the final half-mile

The leaders tie up badly allowing hold-up horses to sweep past, with stamina at a premium over this trip. A Good Yomp and Land Of Punt can capitalize with their patient tactics and strong-staying profiles.

A Good YompLand Of PuntPrometheanUhtred Ragnarson

Spartan Times dominates throughout

15% probability

If Spartan Times gets an uncontested lead with Grey Skies failing to go the pace early

The recent winner can dictate terms and prove too tough from the front, using superior fitness from his recent 13-day break. His front-running style becomes a major asset rather than a liability in this scenario.

Spartan TimesGrey SkiesLively CitizenBook Of Secrets

Muddling pace develops

10% probability

If neither Grey Skies nor Spartan Times shows early speed or one pulls up early

The pace collapses into a sprint finish favoring horses with natural tactical speed from prominent positions. Lively Citizen and Juan Bermudez can use their pace-pressing styles to maximum advantage in a slowly-run affair.

Lively CitizenJuan BermudezBook Of SecretsA Good Yomp

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Theophilos returning after 364 days off represents a complete unknown quantity despite showing previous ability

WATCH

Grey Skies at age 10 may struggle to cope with sustained pace pressure from fresher front-running rival Spartan Times

WATCH

Book Of Secrets has disappointed in recent runs and faces additional pressure with inexperienced 10lb claimer taking over

NOTE

Uhtred Ragnarson's jumping after 121-day break will be crucial given Alan King's horses sometimes need runs after layoffs

NOTE

A Good Yomp with 10lb claimer Dillon Butler could be underestimated given his strong staying profile and light weight

8:05 — Mental Health Awareness Week Handicap Hurdle (Div II)

2m1f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Disguisedlimit to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Caelan led; the map had Disguisedlimit in front.

Guet Apens won at 3.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Disguisedlimit

Prominent · 3

Roarin' SuccessEmerald TimeMr Lincoln

Midfield · 3

MapleZephlynMojo Ego

Hold Up · 3

CaelanInappropriateGuet Apens

Disguisedlimit will take them along at a sustainable tempo with minimal early pressure, as the only confirmed front-runner faces a field dominated by hold-up horses. Emerald Time, Mr Lincoln and Roarin' Success may sit prominent but won't challenge Disguisedlimit's early lead. With seven hold-up horses (Guet Apens, Caelan, Mojo Ego, Inappropriate, Maple, Zephlyn) plus Disguisedlimit staying on, this sets up a classic scenario where the pace-setter gets a soft lead before the cavalry charge arrives. This race shape strongly favours front-running tactics, as Disguisedlimit can dictate throughout and potentially steal a march on the crowded pack of closers.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Disguisedlimit Controls Throughout

65% probability

If Disguisedlimit gets the expected soft lead and maintains a steady gallop without serious early pressure

The leader can dictate fractions and kick clear when the hold-up brigade still have ground to make up. Ryan Mania can time his effort perfectly from the front while the pack gets in each other's way.

DisguisedlimitEmerald TimeRoarin' SuccessMaple

Hold-Up Horse Surge

20% probability

If the prominent runners apply more pressure than expected or Disguisedlimit weakens significantly

The packed field of closers get their ideal setup with a strong pace to aim at in the final furlong. Quality horses like Guet Apens and Caelan can unleash their finishing kicks.

Guet ApensCaelanInappropriateMojo Ego

Prominent Pair Strike

10% probability

If Emerald Time or Mr Lincoln press forward earlier than expected and sustain their effort

The mid-pack runners get first run on the leader while avoiding the traffic problems that will hit the hold-up horses. Tom Bellamy's experience on Emerald Time could prove decisive.

Emerald TimeMr LincolnRoarin' SuccessDisguisedlimit

Pace Collapse Finish

5% probability

If Disguisedlimit goes too slow early and multiple horses hit the front together

A messy finish develops with several horses in contention but no clear pace advantage. The best horse on the day wins through class rather than tactics.

MapleZephlynInappropriateCaelan

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Disguisedlimit's fitness after 55-day break - any signs of blowing up could trigger dramatic late collapse

WATCH

Traffic problems developing in final two furlongs as seven hold-up horses try to find racing room simultaneously

NOTE

How aggressively Emerald Time and Mr Lincoln position themselves early could determine if Disguisedlimit gets soft lead

WATCH

Charlie Maggs(3) claiming 3lbs on Roarin' Success but inexperience could cost vital lengths at crucial moments

NOTE

Ground conditions remain consistent Good across card so no late changes expected to suit specific horses

8:40 — "Point To Point" Bumper National Hunt Flat Race (Amateur Jockeys' Race) (GBB Race)

2m1f · Good · CLS4 · 16 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 15 May 2026.

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