Archive›Ascot · 9 May 2026

Ascot

9 May 2026 · 7 races

✓ Historic — full access

Read from the in-running comments·How often this is right →

1:10 — Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

6f · Good · NOV · 10 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

1:45 — Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% British EBF Fillies' Handicap

1m · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Alobayyah to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Radiant Beauty and Quamby led; the map had Alobayyah in front.

Radiant Beauty won at 4.50 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Alobayyah

Prominent · 4

DeedaydivaRadiant BeautySong N DanceElectrifarhh

Midfield · 2

QuambyJannas Journey

Hold Up · 3

ZghartaPolitelyBella Perla

Alobayyah will set the pace from the front without pressure, creating a sustainable rhythm that should see her stay prominent throughout. Four horses (Deedaydiva, Electrifarhh, Radiant Beauty, Song N Dance) will jostle for prominent positions behind the leader, creating congestion and potential traffic problems entering the straight. The hold-up contingent (Zgharta, Jannas Journey, Bella Perla, Politely) will need luck in running as the prominent group compresses. This setup strongly favours the lone front-runner Alobayyah and any hold-up horses that can secure clean passages late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dominates

45% probability

If Alobayyah maintains her lead and the prominent group gets bunched up 2-3 furlongs out

The uncontested leader capitalizes on her tactical advantage while the congested prominent group struggles for racing room. Hold-up horses with clear runs can pick up the pieces but may lack time to catch the winner.

AlobayyahZghartaJannas JourneyBella Perla

Prominent Group Collapse

25% probability

If the four prominent runners interfere with each other in a scramble for position

The pace becomes messy with multiple horses trying to press forward simultaneously, creating ideal conditions for closers. Patient tactics from the rear prove decisive as the early pace crumbles.

PolitelyBella PerlaZghartaJannas Journey

Late Surge Success

20% probability

If Zgharta or another hold-up horse gets a dream run through the field

The higher-rated closers utilize their class advantage with perfectly timed runs from off the pace. The sustainable early gallop sets up perfectly for their finishing kicks.

ZghartaJannas JourneySong N DancePolitely

Prominent Breaks Clear

10% probability

If Song N Dance or Radiant Beauty escapes the congestion and presses Alobayyah

One of the in-form prominent runners finds racing room and kicks clear of the pack with sustained pressure. Their recent winning form proves decisive in a tactical battle.

Song N DanceRadiant BeautyDeedaydivaElectrifarhh

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Alobayyah's 207-day absence could leave her vulnerable despite tactical advantage if fitness is lacking

WATCH

The four prominent runners creating a mid-race bottleneck that could compromise their chances 2-3 furlongs out

NOTE

Zgharta's ability to secure racing room from her hold-up position given the likely pace congestion ahead

WATCH

Song N Dance and Radiant Beauty both race freely which could see them get involved in the prominent pile-up

NOTE

Politely carrying just 122lbs as the only 3yo against older fillies gives her a significant weight edge

2:20 — Carey Group Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap)

7f · Good · HCAP · 29 runners

Golden Mind likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Nostrum led; the map had Golden Mind in front.

The Wizard Of Eye won at 21.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

13 of 27 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Golden Mind

Prominent · 11

Royal ZabeelTen PoundsSerengetiGreat AcclaimPellitoryKhafizStar AnthemShiplakeMorte PointJordan ElectricsHumam

Midfield · 8

MudbirTribal ChiefNostrumNikovoStorm FreeShafdarJumbyAalto

Hold Up · 9

Witch HunterCompletely RandomThe Wizard Of EyePopmasterHouquetotHickoryDefence MinisterYorkshireSo Darn Hot

Golden Mind is the only confirmed front runner in this 29-runner handicap, likely to get an uncontested lead with prominent runners Ten Pounds, Great Acclaim, Khafiz and Jordan Electrics sitting just behind but unlikely to pressure the early pace. This sustainable tempo will allow the large field of hold-up horses to get into contention, creating a cavalry charge in the final two furlongs as runners fan out across Ascot's wide straight. The combination of one lone leader and 20+ hold-up horses in a large field strongly favours closers who can finish fast from off the pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Sustainable Pace Favours Closers

60% probability

If Golden Mind gets an easy lead and the pace stays moderate through halfway

The large pack of hold-up horses will get perfect positioning to unleash late runs, with the wide Ascot straight allowing multiple horses to challenge simultaneously. Premium on finishing speed over early pace.

Defence MinisterThe Wizard Of EyeMudbirHickory

Prominent Runners Apply Pressure

25% probability

If Ten Pounds or Great Acclaim decide to press Golden Mind early

A faster pace will stretch the field and favour horses with tactical speed who can sit prominent and quicken. Those too far back may struggle to make up the ground in time.

Great AcclaimKhafizTen PoundsShiplake

Golden Mind Wire-to-Wire

10% probability

If the front runner maintains a strong gallop and the closers leave their runs too late

With 138lbs top weight but proven stamina, Golden Mind could exploit the tactical speed and sustain his effort to the line. The packed field behind may get in each other's way.

Golden MindTen PoundsGreat AcclaimRoyal Zabeel

Pace Collapses Into Sprint

5% probability

If Golden Mind goes too slow early and no prominent runner takes up the running

The race becomes a 2-furlong dash where pure speed trumps stamina, suiting horses who have shown sprint pace over shorter trips. The 7f distance becomes academic.

Completely RandomSo Darn HotStorm FreeHumam

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Golden Mind must be monitored early to see if he can dictate terms uncontested or if prominent runners press him

WATCH

Ten Pounds and Great Acclaim both need watching for tactical adjustments after previous racing-too-keen issues

NOTE

The Wizard Of Eye returning after 187 days but has previous winning course form off this exact rating

WATCH

Defence Minister and other lightly-raced 4yos could prove well-handicapped if building on recent improvement

NOTE

Jordan Electrics stepping up in trip at age 10 after encouraging 7f debut suggests market confidence worth noting

2:55 — Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% Italy Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m4f · Good · HCAP · 15 runners

Gordon Grey to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Gordon Grey led, as the map showed.

Wine Dark Sea won at 17.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Gordon Grey

Prominent · 6

KirchnerAl Wasl StormBoatswainWhatsgoingonmarvinValedictorySerenity Blue

Midfield · 4

HermeticBulletinClassical AllusionWine Dark Sea

Hold Up · 4

Siempre ArturoOpportunityToo SoonIn The Breeze

Gordon Grey provides the only confirmed front-running threat in this 15-runner field, giving him an uncontested lead through the early stages at a sustainable gallop. The real danger develops behind as six horses (Boatswain, Kirchner, Valedictory, Serenity Blue, Al Wasl Storm, Whatsgoingonmarvin) all want prominent positions, creating a congested pack 2-3 lengths off the leader. This congestion will cause interference and positional compromises 2-3 furlongs out as they fan wide or get shuffled back. The race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can avoid the prominent traffic and Gordon Grey if he can maintain his uncontested advantage.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Lone Leader Dominates

40% probability

If Gordon Grey maintains his uncontested lead without pressure through halfway.

The moderate early gallop allows him to conserve energy while the prominent pack behind squabbles for position, leaving him with enough in reserve to repel late challenges. His recent hat-trick form and tactical advantage prove decisive.

Gordon GreyToo SoonClassical AllusionBulletin

Hold-Up Heroes Strike

35% probability

If the prominent congestion causes significant interference turning for home.

The pace quickens as the prominent runners fan out and jostle 2-3 furlongs out, perfectly setting up the race for closers with clear runs. Oisin Murphy and James Doyle navigate the traffic expertly on their hold-up mounts.

Classical AllusionBulletinOpportunityIn The Breeze

Prominent Survivor Emerges

15% probability

If one of the prominent runners secures an ideal position without traffic problems.

Valedictory or Al Wasl Storm travel kindly just off the pace and find racing room when it matters, benefiting from their class edge over rivals. The Gosden/Burrows training gives them the tactical edge in the finish.

ValedictoryAl Wasl StormSerenity BlueKirchner

Pace Collapse Surprise

10% probability

If Gordon Grey stops quickly and the prominent pack goes too slow early.

The lack of genuine pace allows a midfield horse to make steady progress and exploit the tactical muddle. Wine Dark Sea or Hermetic benefit from the crawling gallop that negates early positioning.

Wine Dark SeaHermeticSiempre ArturoOpportunity

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Gordon Grey's early position is crucial - if he's pressured or goes too fast early, his advantage disappears completely.

WATCH

The prominent pack of six horses will cause significant interference 2-3 furlongs out as they fan wide for racing room.

NOTE

Classical Allusion and Opportunity both return from long breaks but hold-up styles mask fitness concerns better than prominent runners.

WATCH

Valedictory needs Billy Loughnane to secure the ideal spot just behind the leader without getting trapped in the prominent congestion.

NOTE

In The Breeze's recent stable transfer to Henrietta Knight and immediate improvement suggests he's primed for another bold showing.

3:30 — Royal Ascot Local Schools Art Competition Handicap

1m2f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Sintra to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Sintra led, as the map showed.

Sintra won at 5.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Sintra

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 2

Enemy AgentDevil's Peak

Hold Up · 2

Waterford CastleSassicaia

Sintra is the sole confirmed front-runner and will likely dictate terms from the start, with the other four runners all preferring hold-up tactics. This creates an uncontested lead scenario where Sintra can roll along at a comfortable tempo without early pressure. The lack of pace pressure means the leaders can conserve energy for a sustained finish, while the quartet of hold-up horses will need to rely on turn of foot from off the pace. This race shape strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can track Sintra closely, as the hold-up horses may struggle to make up ground against a horse with an uncontested advantage.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

45% probability

If Sintra gets an easy lead without early pressure from the hold-up brigade

Sintra controls the fractions throughout and kicks clear in the straight while the hold-up horses struggle to close from too far back. His progressive profile and front-running style perfectly suits this tactical scenario.

SintraWaterford CastleSassicaiaDevil's Peak

Late Closer Strikes

30% probability

If one of the hold-up horses produces exceptional turn of foot despite the tactical disadvantage

The pace becomes just moderate enough for a hold-up horse with superior class to overcome the positional deficit in the final furlong. Waterford Castle or Sassicaia most likely to benefit from superior RPR figures.

Waterford CastleSassicaiaSintraDevil's Peak

Prominent Tracker Prevails

15% probability

If a hold-up horse positions closer than usual to negate Sintra's tactical advantage

One of the better-rated hold-up runners shadows Sintra throughout and uses superior finishing speed when the pace lifts. This requires tactical awareness from connections to break normal running patterns.

Devil's PeakEnemy AgentSintraWaterford Castle

Pace Collapse Finish

10% probability

If Sintra goes too fast early or the hold-up horses apply unexpected pressure

The early pace becomes unsustainable and multiple horses finish strongly, turning it into a pure stamina test over the final two furlongs. The highest-rated closers would benefit most from this development.

Waterford CastleSassicaiaDevil's PeakSintra

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Sintra getting an uncontested lead could prove decisive given the tactical mismatch against four hold-up runners

WATCH

Watch for any of the hold-up horses positioning closer to the pace than their normal running style suggests

WATCH

Waterford Castle's superior RPR rating could overcome tactical disadvantage if the pace becomes genuinely strong

NOTE

Enemy Agent's inexperience and 28-day break makes him vulnerable in a tactically demanding scenario

NOTE

Monitor early fractions to see if Sintra exploits his positional advantage or allows the field to stay in contention

4:05 — Mariner Systems Fillies' Handicap

1m2f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Venetia led, as the map showed.

Venetia won at 12.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

TrystNanino NiyatiVenetia

Prominent · 2

NagaMoon Angel

Midfield · 1

Room Fourteen

Hold Up · 3

Lady RidgewoodBint KilfrushRuby Wedding

Tryst, Nanino Niyati and Venetia will all want to lead, creating a fierce early battle that should result in a strong gallop from the outset. The sustained pace over 1m2f will test stamina reserves, particularly with Tryst and Venetia both stepping up in trip under testing conditions. This demanding gallop will stretch the field and expose any weaknesses in staying power. The strong pace clearly favours hold-up horses like Bint Kilfrush, Lady Ridgewood and Room Fourteen who can sit off the early burn and deliver late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Pace Collapses Leaders

45% probability

If the three front-runners go too fast early and tie up in the final furlong

The sustained battle between Tryst, Nanino Niyati and Venetia will empty their tanks, allowing the patient hold-up horses to sweep past them late. Room Fourteen and Bint Kilfrush are perfectly positioned to capitalize with their closing kicks.

Room FourteenBint KilfrushLady RidgewoodRuby Wedding

Prominent Horses Dominate

30% probability

If Naga and Moon Angel can sit just off the pace and avoid the early speed duel

These two can track the leaders without getting embroiled in the early battle, then use their class to strike in the final two furlongs. Naga's hat-trick seeking form and Moon Angel's course experience could prove decisive.

NagaMoon AngelTrystRoom Fourteen

Front Runner Survives

15% probability

If one of the pace-setters can dictate terms and see off their rivals

Tryst's recent good form or Venetia's step up in trip could allow one to break clear of their pace rivals and maintain the advantage. The winner would need to show superior stamina to the others who contested the early pace.

TrystVenetiaNagaNanino Niyati

Tactical Pace Benefits All

10% probability

If the three leaders respect each other and settle into a more manageable rhythm

A steadier early pace would neutralize the advantage of the hold-up horses and allow all running styles to have a chance. This would bring Ruby Wedding and Lady Ridgewood more into play alongside the pace angles.

Ruby WeddingLady RidgewoodVenetiaMoon Angel

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if Tryst, Nanino Niyati and Venetia fail to engage early, as this would completely change the race dynamic

WATCH

Moon Angel's 266-day absence makes her hard to assess despite previous course form over similar distances

NOTE

Room Fourteen's hood retention after her breakthrough win suggests connections expect another forward show

WATCH

Ruby Wedding represents Andrew Balding who has strong 14-day form, making her handicap debut significant

NOTE

Naga's hat-trick bid gives her strong momentum but prominent runners need the right pace scenario

4:40 — Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% Blue Handicap

6f · Good · HCAP · 19 runners

Lord Roxby likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Azure Zain and Fantasy Master led; the map had Lord Roxby in front.

Azure Zain won at 19.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield.

9 of 18 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Lord Roxby

Prominent · 5

Twilight JetTrue PromiseTokyo JoeThunderous LoveFantasy Master

Midfield · 7

The Bitter MooseRage Of ThunderAzure ZainHecticDicko The LegendSerenity DreamNeyva's Angel

Hold Up · 6

Daring LegendCressida WildesJuan Les PinsCajetanWaistcoatArantes Nascimento

Lord Roxby will take the field along from the front with minimal pressure, joined potentially by Fantasy Master, True Promise, Twilight Jet and Tokyo Joe in the early positions. With 13 hold-up horses in the field, the pace will be steady rather than fierce, allowing the front group to dictate terms. The large contingent of hold-up runners will create congestion in behind as they seek racing room in the final two furlongs. This race shape strongly favors prominent runners who can avoid the traffic and hold-up horses with proven tactical speed to navigate the scramble.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Running

45% probability

If Lord Roxby gets an easy lead with minimal early pressure

The pace becomes pedestrian allowing him to kick clear turning for home, while the mass of hold-up horses get caught in traffic behind. Prominent runners tracking the pace get first run on the leaders.

Lord RoxbyTrue PromiseFantasy MasterTokyo Joe

Hold-Up Traffic Nightmare

30% probability

If the 13 hold-up horses create a wall of traffic in the final furlong

Racing room becomes premium with many fancied runners getting checked or having to switch multiple times. The few horses with early pace positions or those finding gaps prosper.

Juan Les PinsThunderous LoveDicko The LegendRage Of Thunder

Pace Collapse Sprint

15% probability

If multiple prominent runners engage Lord Roxby early creating honest fractions

The early leaders come back to the field in the final furlong as the race becomes a sprint finish. Hold-up horses with tactical speed can time their runs perfectly.

Tokyo JoeNeyva's AngelArantes NascimentoAzure Zain

Clean Sectional Battle

10% probability

If the field spreads across the track minimizing interference

The race becomes a pure speed test with minimal traffic problems allowing each horse to show their true ability. Class and current form become the deciding factors.

Juan Les PinsFantasy MasterDaring LegendTrue Promise

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Lord Roxby could steal this if getting uncontested lead with 13 hold-up horses behind him

WATCH

Traffic problems inevitable with 13 hold-up runners in 19-horse field on straight Ascot track

WATCH

Fantasy Master returning from 156-day break but Robert Cowell stable in form

NOTE

Juan Les Pins has strong recent form but must overcome crowded field positioning

NOTE

Multiple horses stepping up in class including Tokyo Joe and Neyva's Angel from recent wins

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 9 May 2026.

Tonight’s free races, in your inbox

Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.

One email a day. Unsubscribe whenever. Every race, every meeting →