Archive›Ayr · 17 April 2026

Ayr

17 April 2026 · 7 races

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1:45 — Slater Menswear Handicap Hurdle

2m · Soft · HCAP · 15 runners

4 vying for the leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Newtown Rambler led, as the map showed.

Tuppence won at 19.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 4

Castle IversBertie's BalletNewtown RamblerTriple Crown Ted

Prominent · 5

The Gray GhostMagna VictorGinger MailDance ThiefTuppence

Midfield · 2

Ravenscraig CastleBelaya River

Hold Up · 4

Bibe MusSecret ForceCaballo De GuerraLance Les Des

Castle Ivers, Triple Crown Ted, Bertie's Ballet and Newtown Rambler will ensure a strong gallop from the start, with at least three of these confirmed front-runners likely to dispute the early lead. The pace will be testing throughout on this soft ground over 2 miles, creating a stamina examination that will sort out the field. The strong early gallop will stretch the field and expose any that lack genuine staying power. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses and prominent racers with proven stamina, as the pace-setters will likely weaken in the closing stages.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Heroes Prevail

45% probability

If the pace-setters go too fast early and collapse in the final half-mile

The strong gallop will set up perfectly for horses ridden with restraint who can stay the trip strongly. Late-running types like Bibe Mus, Secret Force and Caballo De Guerra will have their chance to sweep up the pieces.

Bibe MusSecret ForceCaballo De GuerraLance Les Des

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If one of the handy horses can sit just off the pace and time their challenge

A horse like The Gray Ghost or Magna Victor tracking the leaders could find the perfect position to strike when the front-runners weaken. Their tactical speed from a prominent position will prove decisive.

The Gray GhostMagna VictorGinger MailDance Thief

Front Runner Survives

15% probability

If one pace-setter proves stronger than the others and maintains galloping room

Castle Ivers or Triple Crown Ted could dictate terms and prove too tough to peg back if getting first run on their rivals. Their class and tactical advantage from the front will be hard to overcome.

Castle IversTriple Crown TedBertie's BalletNewtown Rambler

Lightweight Surprise

10% probability

If the pace becomes too strong for the big weights and a lightly-weighted runner stays on

Belaya River or Tuppence could benefit from their weight advantage if the gallop becomes punishing enough to stop the market leaders. The handicapper's assistance combined with stamina will prove telling.

Belaya RiverTuppenceRavenscraig CastleDance Thief

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Castle Ivers returning from 512 days absence - fitness levels unknown despite his class advantage

WATCH

Bertie's Ballet and Newtown Rambler both likely to contest the early lead which could compromise both their chances

NOTE

Triple Crown Ted was confidently handled when second here last time suggesting connections expected more to come

WATCH

Bibe Mus returning from 38 days off for Paul Nicholls who is operating at 18% strike-rate with his runners

NOTE

Secret Force and Caballo De Guerra both wear headgear changes which could aid their settling and tactical positioning

2:20 — Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m½f · Soft · HCAP · 9 runners

Lead contested: Throatlash v Tanking AlongHISTORIC

How it ran

Risk De Pluie led; the map had Throatlash and Tanking Along in front.

Pleasington won at 7.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

ThroatlashTanking Along

Prominent · 3

Risk De PluieKoukeoMarty McFly

Midfield · 1

Ballyfort

Hold Up · 3

PleasingtonThe GrafterStuntman Steve

Throatlash and Tanking Along will contest the early lead, with both horses natural front-runners who need to dictate terms. Throatlash's aggressive style and Tanking Along's progressive form suggest they'll set a solid gallop from the off. The soft ground and 2m½f trip will test stamina reserves, likely creating a searching pace that could crack some rivals before the home turn. This honest tempo strongly favours prominent racers and hold-up horses with proven stamina, as pure speed horses will struggle to sustain their effort in the testing conditions.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Throatlash Dominates Early

40% probability

If Throatlash jumps cleanly and avoids the mistakes that caused his Haydock fall

His front-running style will capitalize on the soft ground that suits him perfectly, and weaker stayers will be cooked by halfway. The honest gallop plays directly into the hands of proven stayers like The Grafter and Risk De Pluie who can pick up the pieces.

ThroatlashThe GrafterRisk De PluieMarty McFly

Competitive Pace Battle

35% probability

If both Throatlash and Tanking Along go hard early and compromise each other

The dual pace angle creates a strong gallop that sets up the race perfectly for hold-up horses with tactical speed. Pleasington and Ballyfort can use their class and finishing kick to sweep past tiring leaders in the straight.

PleasingtonBallyfortThe GrafterKoukeo

Tanking Along Takes Charge

15% probability

If Throatlash makes early errors or is restrained, leaving Tanking Along alone in front

The progressive 7-year-old can utilize his improved jumping and left-handed course preference to control the race from the front. His modest rating means the weight relief combined with the tactical advantage could prove decisive against classier but less well-positioned rivals.

Tanking AlongMarty McFlyThe GrafterRisk De Pluie

Messy Pace Collapse

10% probability

If both front-runners fall or make significant jumping errors early in the race

The field will bunch up and create a sprint finish that doesn't suit most of these stamina-laden performers. Only horses with natural pace like Koukeo or Marty McFly can capitalize on the changed complexion, though the soft ground still demands stamina.

KoukeoMarty McFlyPleasingtonBallyfort

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Throatlash must jump much cleaner than his Haydock fall suggests, as early mistakes will immediately compromise his front-running tactics

WATCH

The pace battle between Throatlash and Tanking Along could become unsustainably fast and set up the race for back-markers with stamina

NOTE

Marty McFly's four-race winning streak faces its biggest test with the 7lb penalty and significant class rise from previous targets

WATCH

The Grafter's hold-up style needs the pace to be strong enough to bring stamina into play over this extended trip

NOTE

Koukeo's confidence must be rebuilt after two disappointing runs when previously unbeaten over fences in his first two chase starts

2:55 — Abbott Risk Consulting Ltd Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m · Soft · CLS4 · 8 runners

Green Angel to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Penn Avenue led; the map had Green Angel in front.

Dropematthestation won at 3.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Green Angel

Prominent · 3

LirionBohemond AntiochDropematthestation

Midfield · 2

LinaleneMagna Patch

Hold Up · 2

CulzeanPenn Avenue

Green Angel will lead from the start with no other confirmed front runners to pressure him, creating a comfortable sustainable pace through the first mile. The prominent runners Lirion, Dropematthestation, Linalene, and Bohemond Antioch will track behind in a pack, while Penn Avenue and Culzean sit at the back as hold-up horses. With Green Angel allowed to dictate terms unchallenged, the race will develop into a tactical affair that strongly favours the prominent runners who can position just behind the leader and kick when ready. This race shape clearly benefits prominent runners who can travel well and have something left to finish.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

55% probability

If Green Angel sets uncontested fractions and the prominent pack travels well.

The pace-tracking horses get first run on the tiring leader turning for home, with the best of them having enough left to hold off any late challengers. Lirion and Dropematthestation are perfectly positioned to exploit this scenario.

LirionDropematthestationLinaleneBohemond Antioch

Late Surge Success

25% probability

If the pace becomes crawling and kicks late.

The hold-up horses get maximum benefit from a sprint finish where early position matters less than finishing kick. Penn Avenue's flat speed becomes crucial in a dash to the line.

Penn AvenueCulzeanLirionBohemond Antioch

Front Runner Wire-to-Wire

12% probability

If Green Angel gets soft early fractions and finds more when challenged.

The leader uses his uncontested position to build an unassailable advantage, holding on despite late pressure. His recent course form at the distance gives him the edge in a staying battle.

Green AngelLirionDropematthestationLinalene

Pace Collapse Chaos

8% probability

If Green Angel stops quickly and the prominent pack comes back to the field.

The entire complexion changes when the pace dissolves, creating a muddled finish where any horse can win. The best stayers benefit from the messy development.

Bohemond AntiochDropematthestationPenn AvenueLinalene

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Green Angel setting crawling fractions early - if he's not moving freely in the first half-mile he may not last home.

WATCH

Lirion and Dropematthestation traveling strongly approaching two out - both have the tactical advantage to strike first.

NOTE

Penn Avenue's position turning in - needs to be within striking distance to use her flat speed effectively.

WATCH

Bohemond Antioch jumping fluently after his 112-day absence - any jumping errors will compromise his chances from prominent position.

NOTE

The pace through the first mile - if Green Angel goes too fast early the race opens up for all horses behind him.

3:30 — Hillhouse Quarry Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m4½f · Soft · HCAP · 9 runners

Lead contested: Twinjets v MyretownHISTORIC

How it ran

Twinjets led, as the map showed.

Twinjets won at 7.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

TwinjetsMyretown

Prominent · 3

Califet En VolDonnachaIl Ridoto

Midfield · 1

Hombre De Guerra

Hold Up · 3

JipcotHoe Joly SmokeDubai Days

Twinjets and Myretown will ensure genuine pace from the start, with both confirmed front-runners likely to go forward and contest the early lead. This honest gallop over 2m4½f on soft ground will create a searching test of stamina, particularly through the closing stages where the pace will tell. The strong early pace will stretch the field and create opportunities for those with tactical speed to move through the race. This setup clearly favours prominent racers and hold-up horses who can finish strongly, as the early pace battle will soften up the leaders for late challengers.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Prevail

45% probability

If the early pace between Twinjets and Myretown is genuinely strong and honest

The soft ground and sustained gallop will find out the leaders in the final half-mile, allowing patient hold-up performers to close with late runs. Horses like Hoe Joly Smoke, Jipcot and Dubai Days can use their finishing kicks to maximum effect.

Hoe Joly SmokeJipcotDubai DaysHombre De Guerra

Prominent Tracker Wins

30% probability

If one horse can track the pace without getting embroiled in the early battle

A prominent runner like Donnacha or Il Ridoto can position perfectly behind the leaders before striking with a well-timed challenge. They avoid the pace war but stay close enough to pounce when the leaders weaken.

DonnachaIl RidotoCalifet En VolHoe Joly Smoke

Front Runner Survives

15% probability

If Twinjets gets first run and kicks clear before Myretown can respond

His class and recent form suggest he can dominate from the front if he gets an uncontested lead. The Paul Nicholls runner has won two in a row previously and showed he's back to form at Newbury.

TwinjetsMyretownDonnachaIl Ridoto

Pace Collapse Chaos

10% probability

If both leaders go too hard early and come back badly

A moderate pace from tired leaders allows an unfancied hold-up horse to sneak through when others have used their ammunition. This chaotic finish suits the outsiders with something left in the tank.

Hombre De GuerraDubai DaysJipcotCalifet En Vol

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Myretown is prone to making bad blunders and has been heavily defeated on his last two starts, making him unreliable despite home advantage

WATCH

Both Twinjets and Myretown going forward together could set up a pace duel that compromises both front-runners if they get competitive early

NOTE

Il Ridoto wears first-time tongue-tie and top-clip suggesting Paul Nicholls expects significant improvement from this prominent runner

WATCH

Hoe Joly Smoke returns from wind surgery after 55 days off, which could either unlock improvement or indicate ongoing issues

NOTE

Dubai Days has an excellent Ayr record with five wins from 11 visits and won over course and distance on soft ground in February

4:05 — Coral Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m5½f · Soft · HCAP · 14 runners

4 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Phantomofthepoints led, as the map showed.

Knomorediamonds won at 26.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 4

PhantomofthepointsThe Four SixesCame From NowhereSpectacularsunrise

Prominent · 5

SanilamA Perfect DayEagles ReprieveCaptain ButlerKnomorediamonds

Midfield · 1

Minella Missile

Hold Up · 4

Jony RSaracen BeauSerious OperatorIrandando Has

The Four Sixes, Phantomofthepoints, Came From Nowhere and Spectacularsunrise will ensure a strong gallop from the outset, with all four confirmed front-runners likely to press for an early advantage. The extended 2m5½f trip on soft ground will test stamina reserves as the pace inevitably tells in the closing stages. This robust early gallop will stretch the field and create a searching test of staying power. Hold-up horses with proven stamina will be perfectly positioned to capitalise as the pace-setters weaken, making this a race that strongly favours late-closing types.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If the strong early pace sets up perfectly for closers

The multiple front-runners will ensure a searching gallop that plays into the hands of patient ride merchants who can pick off tiring leaders. Saracen Beau and Jony R possess the class and closing kick to capitalise when the pace collapses.

Saracen BeauJony RSerious OperatorMinella Missile

Front Runner Survives

20% probability

If one pace-setter gets first run on rivals

Came From Nowhere's recent hat-trick attempt suggests he has the stamina reserves to outlast his fellow front-runners. His proven soft ground form and tongue-tie equipment give him the edge in a stamina duel.

Came From NowherePhantomofthepointsThe Four SixesSpectacularsunrise

Prominent Tracker Strikes

10% probability

If a horse can sit just off the pace and time their run

Sanilam's recent course win and hood application suggest he can track the leaders before striking late. Eagles Reprieve has the right profile to sit handy and benefit from the strong gallop.

SanilamEagles ReprieveA Perfect DayCaptain Butler

Pace Collapses Completely

5% probability

If the front-runners go too fast too early

The multiple pace angles could create suicidal fractions that allow a complete outsider to pick up the pieces. Knomorediamonds has been running well in defeat and could benefit from a truly-run race.

KnomorediamondsCaptain ButlerA Perfect DayEagles Reprieve

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

The Four Sixes and Phantomofthepoints both show concerning recent form despite being front-runners with the highest ratings

WATCH

Came From Nowhere carries top weight despite excellent recent form and may not handle the pace battle

NOTE

Saracen Beau represents the strongest hold-up threat with Danny McMenamin's 70% strike-rate for trainer Nicky Richards

WATCH

Multiple horses returning from lengthy absences including Spectacularsunrise (48d) and Knomorediamonds (60d) in this competitive field

NOTE

Eagles Reprieve and Knomorediamonds both benefit from claiming jockeys reducing their effective weights significantly

4:43 — Get Home Safe With Thistle Cabs Handicap Hurdle

3m½f · Soft · HCAP · 17 runners

Lead contested: Rocheval v Society SoldierHISTORIC

How it ran

Draco Malfoy led; the map had Rocheval and Society Soldier in front.

Alentejo won at 8.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it.

5 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

RochevalSociety Soldier

Prominent · 7

Draco MalfoyJust EnnemiBilly Boi BlueAlentejoI Am MaxIrish ChampDon Rafael

Midfield · 3

Shoeshine BoyHawthorn StreetPatriotik

Hold Up · 5

Woodland ParkHidden HistoryWhistle Stop TourKent De ThaixEyed

Rocheval and Society Soldier will contest the early lead, with both having genuine front-running styles that should create an honest gallop over this extended trip. Seven horses want prominent positions (Alentejo, I Am Max, Draco Malfoy, Billy Boi Blue, Irish Champ, Don Rafael, Just Ennemi, Shoeshine Boy) creating severe traffic problems turning for home. The genuine pace and soft ground will stretch the field, creating a searching test that will expose those not staying the trip. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can avoid the early scrimmaging and pick off tired leaders in the final half-mile.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses prevail

45% probability

If the early pace is strong and the prominent brigade gets tangled up 2-3 out.

The genuine gallop and soft conditions will find out non-stayers among the pace-setters, allowing patient riders to sweep past tired leaders. Hold-up specialists with proven stamina will capitalize on the honest pace scenario.

EyedWoodland ParkHidden HistoryKent De Thaix

Front-runners steal it

25% probability

If Rocheval or Society Soldier gets an uncontested lead and slows the pace mid-race.

A tactical affair would suit the pace-setters who can dictate terms and kick clear when the field is still bunched. The leader will have enough left to resist late challenges on the testing ground.

Society SoldierRochevalDon RafaelShoeshine Boy

Prominent tactics triumph

20% probability

If the early pace collapses and the prominent runners avoid traffic problems.

The seven prominent runners will benefit from a moderate gallop that doesn't stretch their stamina, positioning them perfectly to strike turning for home. Those tracking the pace will have first run on the hold-up horses.

I Am MaxDraco MalfoyKent De ThaixIrish Champ

Complete pace collapse

10% probability

If both front-runners are pulled back early creating a crawling pace.

The race becomes a sprint finish where class and tactical positioning matter more than stamina, suiting horses with high ratings who can quicken. Fresh horses returning from breaks will have the edge in a dash to the line.

Hidden HistoryJust EnnemiWhistle Stop TourAlentejo

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Traffic chaos likely 2-3 out with Alentejo, I Am Max, Draco Malfoy, and five others all wanting prominent positions

WATCH

Society Soldier and Rocheval must be allowed to dictate the pace or the race becomes a messy tactical affair

NOTE

Woodland Park and Eyed are the most reliable hold-up performers if the pace becomes genuinely strong

WATCH

Several horses including Hidden History and Just Ennemi returning from wind operations need market confidence

NOTE

Shoeshine Boy's course form is exceptional but his February disappointment needs explaining

5:15 — Jardine Utilities Race To Repair 'Hands & Heels' Handicap Hurdle (Conditional/Amateurs') (RE Series)

2m4½f · Soft · HCAP · 10 runners

Kap Boy to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Guchen led; the map had Kap Boy in front.

Balboa won at 4.33 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Kap Boy

Prominent · 3

GuchenPaso DobleNice One Eric

Midfield · 3

BalboaTravis WheatleyRickety Gate

Hold Up · 3

WestoftignesSummergroundsThankyouandplease

Kap Boy is the sole confirmed front runner and should get an uncontested lead with Guchen, Paso Doble and Nice One Eric settling in prominent positions but unlikely to pressure early. The mid-race tempo should be moderate over 2m4½f on soft ground, allowing the large group of hold-up horses (Summergrounds, Balboa, Travis Wheatley, Westoftignes, Rickety Gate, Thankyouandplease) to travel comfortably in behind. With only one natural leader and several strong finishers, this becomes a tactical affair where the pace may not be strong enough to expose the closers. This race shape clearly favours hold-up horses who can produce a strong finish, as Kap Boy may have too much to do alone up front against multiple talented finishers.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If the pace proves moderate with Kap Boy uncontested early

The lack of early pressure allows multiple closers to arrive with winning chances, creating a blanket finish where class and current form separate the finishers. Travis Wheatley and Balboa benefit most from their dangerous low weights and finishing kicks.

Travis WheatleyBalboaWestoftignesSummergrounds

Front Runner Steals

25% probability

If Kap Boy gets away with soft fractions and the closers leave it too late

His class advantage and tactical position prove decisive when the hold-up brigade fails to mount a serious challenge until too late. Guchen's prominent position gives him the best chance to respond if Kap Boy weakens.

Kap BoyGuchenNice One EricPaso Doble

Prominent Runners Strike

12% probability

If Guchen or Nice One Eric improve the pace from halfway

This creates the perfect scenario for horses that can sit handy and quicken, catching Kap Boy when he tires while staying ahead of the back-markers. The moderate early pace followed by acceleration suits their profiles perfectly.

GuchenNice One EricPaso DobleTravis Wheatley

Pace Collapses Completely

8% probability

If the race becomes a crawling tactical affair throughout

The race turns into a sprint finish where the freshest horse or best turn of foot wins regardless of running style. Summergrounds' fresh condition after 75 days off could prove decisive in such circumstances.

SummergroundsThankyouandpleaseKap BoyBalboa

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Travis Wheatley retaining cheekpieces after transformed front-running win could repeat tactics and steal race

WATCH

Kap Boy getting uncontested lead through early stages may prove hard to peg back despite large field of closers

NOTE

Guchen's partnership with Aamilah Aswat continuing after two wins suggests confident connections

WATCH

Balboa dropping to career-low mark of 106 makes him dangerous despite lack of recent wins

NOTE

Summergrounds returning after 75-day break to defend title suggests trainer timing return carefully

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 17 April 2026.

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