Archive›Ayr · 18 April 2026

Ayr

18 April 2026 · 7 races

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1:10 — Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)

2m½f · Soft · HCAP · 9 runners

4 vying for the leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Matata led; the map had Traprain Law and Sans Bruit and Palacio and Classic Maestro in front.

Moudan won at 5.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 4

Traprain LawSans BruitPalacioClassic Maestro

Prominent · 4

MatataCalicoMoudanLe Nez Creux

Midfield · 1

Aeros Luck

Hold Up · 0

None

Traprain Law, Sans Bruit, Classic Maestro and Palacio will create a relentless early gallop with four confirmed front-runners in a small field. The soft ground at 2m½f will test stamina reserves as this quartet battle for position through the early stages. With only Matata, Calico, Le Nez Creux, Aeros Luck and Moudan sitting behind them, the pace will be honest throughout. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers and hold-up horses who can capitalise on the expected pace collapse from over-racing leaders.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Pace Collapse Finish

45% probability

If the four front-runners go too hard early and tie up from 3 out

The relentless gallop will find out the leaders' stamina reserves on soft ground, allowing prominent racers with tactical speed to pick up the pieces. Horses like Matata and Calico who can track the pace without committing fully early will have the fitness edge late.

MatataCalicoAeros LuckMoudan

Strong Gallop Survivor

35% probability

If one of the leaders can dictate fractions and control the tempo

Traprain Law or Palacio could use their class advantage to set sustainable fractions and kick clear when the others falter. Their recent soft ground form suggests they can handle the conditions better than their front-running rivals.

Traprain LawPalacioSans BruitClassic Maestro

Late Closer Strikes

15% probability

If the pace is even stronger than expected and all leaders stop

Le Nez Creux coming back from a long break could benefit from the strongest possible gallop to set up his finishing kick. The Cromwell-trained horse has the class to capitalise if given the perfect setup from those in front.

Le Nez CreuxMoudanMatataAeros Luck

Front Runner Wire Job

5% probability

If the soft ground plays slower than expected and one leader gets away

Sans Bruit or Classic Maestro could steal a march if the ground doesn't take its toll as expected. This scenario requires the pace to be less punishing than the evidence suggests it will be.

Sans BruitClassic MaestroTraprain LawPalacio

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for traffic problems at the third-last fence with four prominent runners (Matata, Calico, Le Nez Creux, Aeros Luck) likely converging from similar positions

WATCH

Monitor how quickly Traprain Law and Sans Bruit commit early - if they both want the lead it could set up a suicidal pace

NOTE

Le Nez Creux returning from 153 days off could either be primed for a big run or need the race badly

WATCH

Classic Maestro wearing a visor for the first time suggests connections trying to find improvement but could backfire if he over-races

NOTE

Amateur jockey Lucas Murphy on Aeros Luck could struggle to position his mount effectively when the pace quickens

1:45 — CPMS Novices' Champion Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

3m · Soft · HCAP · 15 runners

4 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Big John Wayne and Kdeux Saint Fray led, as the map showed.

Pounding Poet won at 19.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up.

4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 4

MilcreeDiamond DealerCaughtinyourtranceBig John Wayne

Prominent · 5

Califet En VolKdeux Saint FrayAyikoWalking On AirJust Over Land

Midfield · 2

I Wish YouBlakey Boy

Hold Up · 4

Gamesters GuyAl KalilaYoung JackPounding Poet

Milcree, Diamond Dealer, and Caughtinyourtrance will ensure a strong gallop from the outset, with Big John Wayne likely to join the pace-forcing if needed. This quartet of confirmed front-runners will create a searching test of stamina over 3 miles on soft ground, with the pace likely to be honest throughout rather than stop-start. The relentless gallop will set up the race for the hold-up horses and those who can produce sustained finishing kicks. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses and late closers who can capitalise on the expected pace collapse in the final half-mile.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Pace Collapse

60% probability

If the four leaders go too hard and crack from 3f out

The sustained gallop tells on the pace-setters as hold-up horses sweep past with fresh legs in the closing stages. Gamesters Guy, I Wish You, and Al Kalila are perfectly positioned to exploit the pace scenario.

Gamesters GuyI Wish YouAl KalilaYoung Jack

Tactical Battle

25% probability

If the pace-setters moderate the gallop and stay competitive

A more measured tempo allows some front-runners to stay in contention while prominent racers get the best of both worlds. Diamond Dealer and Califet En Vol can capitalise on their class advantage.

Diamond DealerCalifet En VolKdeux Saint FrayAyiko

Front Runner Dominance

10% probability

If one pace-setter breaks clear and maintains the advantage

Milcree or Diamond Dealer establish a commanding lead that the hold-up horses cannot peg back despite the strong pace. The winner comes from those who can sustain their effort from the front.

MilcreeDiamond DealerCaughtinyourtranceBig John Wayne

Complete Pace Meltdown

5% probability

If the gallop becomes unsustainably fast from the start

All four leaders stop to a walk in the straight, creating chaos and allowing a mid-division runner to pick up the pieces. Just Over Land benefits from avoiding the early pace battle entirely.

Just Over LandWalking On AirPounding PoetBlakey Boy

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Milcree and Diamond Dealer could set unsustainable fractions if both commit to leading from the start

WATCH

Ayiko has been pulled up recently and represents an unreliable yard despite having perfect soft going form

WATCH

Pounding Poet returns after 110 days absence and has poor soft going record despite his class advantage

NOTE

Kdeux Saint Fray wears headgear for the first time which could indicate recent issues or improvement

NOTE

Gamesters Guy's 44-day break might leave him short of peak fitness despite his excellent soft going credentials

2:20 — Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) (GBB Race)

2m · Soft · G2 · 10 runners

Lead contested: Tellherthename v Secret SquirrelHISTORIC

How it ran

Ooh Betty led; the map had Tellherthename and Secret Squirrel in front.

Dedicated Hero won at 13.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.

2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

TellherthenameSecret Squirrel

Prominent · 4

Tutti QuantiCaptain HugoWelsh ChargerOoh Betty

Midfield · 1

Dedicated Hero

Hold Up · 3

Gibbs IslandQueenie St ClairAll In You

Secret Squirrel and Tellherthename will set a genuine pace from the off, with both confirmed leaders unlikely to compromise. The soft ground at 2m over hurdles will create a demanding test, while Tutti Quanti, Captain Hugo, Ooh Betty, Dedicated Hero and Welsh Charger all wanting prominent positions means inevitable congestion approaching the final two flights. This honest gallop combined with ground conditions will expose any weaknesses in stamina and jumping under pressure. The race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can avoid the early traffic and produce late speed when others are stopping.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runners Collapse Late

45% probability

If Secret Squirrel and Tellherthename go too fast early and fade from 2 out

The genuine pace and soft conditions take their toll on the leaders, allowing closers with fresh legs to sweep past in the final furlong. Hold-up specialists like Gibbs Island and All In You are perfectly positioned to capitalize.

Gibbs IslandAll In YouQueenie St ClairTutti Quanti

Prominent Horses Prevail

30% probability

If the pace setters moderate their speed and prominent runners avoid traffic

Captain Hugo and Tutti Quanti get ideal positions tracking the leaders without over-racing, then assert when the pace lifts approaching the last. Their class and tactical positioning proves decisive over the staying-on hold-up horses.

Captain HugoTutti QuantiDedicated HeroOoh Betty

Traffic Chaos Benefits Patient

15% probability

If the six prominent runners create a wall and interfere with each other 2-3 out

The bunching of so many forward-going types causes checking and lost momentum for those caught in the melee. Queenie St Clair and Gibbs Island, held up out the back, find clear runs down the outside to exploit the chaos.

Queenie St ClairGibbs IslandAll In YouWelsh Charger

Wire-to-Wire Shock

10% probability

If Secret Squirrel gets an uncontested lead and kicks clear at the last

Jonathan Burke lets Secret Squirrel bowl along at his own rhythm without pressure, then the 7-year-old finds extra on the soft ground he handles well. The field leaves their runs too late to peg back the gutsy front-runner.

Secret SquirrelTellherthenameCaptain HugoTutti Quanti

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Secret Squirrel and Tellherthename disputing the early lead - if they go too fast both will be sitting ducks late on

WATCH

Traffic developing 2 furlongs out with six horses wanting prominent positions - several will get hampered or checked

WATCH

Tutti Quanti's jumping under pressure - has fallen before and Harry Cobden needs to keep him balanced in the heat of battle

NOTE

Captain Hugo's fitness after 49 days off following his excellent Ascot win - any signs of rustiness could be costly

NOTE

Gibbs Island finding a clear run from the back - Tom Lacey's 5-year-old needs luck in running to showcase his finishing kick

2:55 — Jordan Electrics Ltd Seafield Trophy Mares' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)

3m½f · Soft · HCAP · 10 runners

Lead contested: Pinot Rouge v Princess KeriHISTORIC

How it ran

Princess Keri led, as the map showed.

Game Colours won at 11.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Pinot RougePrincess Keri

Prominent · 4

World Of FortunesHolly HartingoGame ColoursLove Of Neymore

Midfield · 2

Fox's FancyAzahara Palace

Hold Up · 2

TwistthenightawayStarlyte

Pinot Rouge and Princess Keri will dispute the early lead, with Princess Keri's superior recent form likely seeing her dictate terms through the first circuit. The prominent brigade of World Of Fortunes, Love Of Neymore, Game Colours, Holly Hartingo, Fox's Fancy and Azahara Palace creates significant congestion behind the leaders, setting up traffic problems approaching the business end. Only Starlyte and Twistthenightaway are committed hold-up performers who can avoid the early scrimmaging. This pace scenario and tactical setup strongly favours the hold-up horses who can find clear water late when the prominent runners get in each other's way.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Prosper

55% probability

If the prominent pack gets tangled up from 3 out as expected

Starlyte and Twistthenightaway benefit from cleaner passages while the six prominent runners jostle for position in a bunched field. The sustained gallop set by Princess Keri perfectly sets up these closers over this stamina-sapping trip.

StarlyteTwistthenightawayWorld Of FortunesGame Colours

Early Leader Lasts

25% probability

If Princess Keri gets soft sectionals and kicks clear turning in

Her superior recent form and Harry Cobden's tactical nous allows her to steal crucial lengths before the field can organize, holding off late challenges. The two wins from four soft ground starts this year gives her the edge.

Princess KeriWorld Of FortunesHolly HartingoFox's Fancy

Prominent Pair Dominates

12% probability

If World Of Fortunes and Game Colours secure the best pitches behind the leaders

Their class ratings of 137-138 RPR tell as they avoid the worst of the traffic problems that engulf the other prominent runners. World Of Fortunes' excellent soft ground record (12/15) proves decisive.

World Of FortunesGame ColoursLove Of NeymoreHolly Hartingo

Pace Collapses Early

8% probability

If both Pinot Rouge and Princess Keri fade quickly from the front

The lack of genuine early pace allows the prominent runners to settle better and finish stronger than expected. Fox's Fancy's recent Ayr win and Love Of Neymore's headgear change become significant factors.

Fox's FancyLove Of NeymoreHolly HartingoAzahara Palace

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Princess Keri and Pinot Rouge early - if neither shows early pace the race dynamic completely changes

WATCH

Traffic problems developing from 3 out when six prominent runners converge on limited racing room

NOTE

Starlyte and Twistthenightaway positioning early - need to be within striking distance turning in to capitalise

WATCH

World Of Fortunes settling - if keen early his chance diminishes significantly in this stamina test

NOTE

Game Colours' tongue-tie debut - any head-shaking or discomfort negates his class advantage

3:35 — Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)

4m · Soft · HCAP · 21 runners

Quebecois to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Isaac Des Obeaux and Quebecois led, as the map showed.

Kap Vert won at 21.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

9 of 16 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Quebecois

Prominent · 8

Blaze The WayIsaac Des ObeauxRoad To HomeOur PowerHerakles WestwoodKatate DoriStolen SilverMaximilian

Midfield · 6

Kim RoqueCollectors ItemKap VertGit MakerPromontoryMagna Sam

Hold Up · 6

King Of AnswersAsk BrewsterMontregardFamous BridgeGabbys CrossChasingouttheblues

Quebecois is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 21-runner Scottish Grand National, giving him a crucial tactical advantage to dictate terms without early pressure. With most others adopting prominent or hold-up styles, the pace is likely to be steady early before building through the middle stages as the field spreads out over Ayr's stamina-sapping 4m trip on testing soft ground. The large field and marathon distance will create natural attrition, with jumping errors and stamina failures likely to thin the pack significantly. This race shape strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can secure good positions early and avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will plague hold-up horses in the closing stages.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Quebecois Controls Throughout

45% probability

If Quebecois jumps cleanly and sets an even gallop without serious challenge for the lead.

His uncontested front-running will allow him to conserve energy while others jostle for position behind, then he can kick clear when the pace lifts approaching the business end. The tactical advantage of controlling the race from the front proves decisive in this stamina test.

QuebecoisIsaac Des ObeauxMaximilianRoad To Home

Prominent Racers Prevail

30% probability

If the pace becomes strong enough to blunt Quebecois's kick but not so fast as to set up the hold-up horses.

The prominent racers like Isaac Des Obeaux and Maximilian can track the pace without over-exerting, then have enough left to outstay the leader in the final furlong. Their superior class ratings shine through when positioned to strike.

Isaac Des ObeauxMaximilianGit MakerKatate Dori

Hold-Up Horse Strikes

15% probability

If the early pace is genuinely strong and creates significant gaps, allowing a talented stayer to weave through.

Montregard or King Of Answers can benefit from a truly-run race where the early leaders have gone too fast, but they need serious traffic luck through the field. Their class and finishing kick becomes effective only if the race sets up perfectly.

MontregardKing Of AnswersChasingoutthebluesAsk Brewster

Attrition Creates Surprise

10% probability

If multiple fallers and mistakes eliminate the leading contenders, leaving the race wide open for a longshot.

The sheer chaos of 21 runners over 4m on soft ground produces enough carnage to bring outsiders like Chasingouttheblues or Kap Vert into contention through avoiding trouble. Position and luck matter more than pure ability in this scenario.

ChasingoutthebluesKap VertPromontoryGabbys Cross

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Quebecois jumping - any early mistake eliminates his tactical advantage and opens the race significantly

WATCH

Traffic problems for hold-up horses Montregard and King Of Answers - large field creates positioning nightmares over 4m

NOTE

Isaac Des Obeaux and Maximilian tracking positions behind Quebecois - need to be handy turning for home to use their class

WATCH

Blaze The Way and top weights struggling with burden on soft ground as race develops through middle stages

NOTE

Chasingouttheblues making progress from rear - low weight could bring him into play if race becomes truly run

4:15 — Stagecoach Your Designated Driver Novices' Hurdle (Winners Of One) (GBB Race)

2m5½f · Soft · NOV · 9 runners

Lead contested: Timesareachanging v Stride OnHISTORIC

How it ran

Allfor led; the map had Timesareachanging and Stride On in front.

Apache Tribe won at 1.83 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

TimesareachangingStride On

Prominent · 4

Laguna BeachLeader CrikAllforOur Boy Stan

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 3

Apache TribeWest Hill VerdeQueens Secret

Timesareachanging and Stride On will contest the early lead, with four prominent runners (Laguna Beach, Allfor, Our Boy Stan) creating congestion behind them. The honest gallop these front-runners establish should produce a true test, particularly given the soft ground and 2m5½f trip. Traffic problems are likely 2-3 out as the prominent brigade gets shuffled, while the three hold-up horses (Apache Tribe, Queens Secret, West Hill Verde) get cleaner runs from off the pace. This race shape strongly favours the hold-up horses who can avoid the early scrimmaging and finish strongly.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses dominate

45% probability

If the early pace is honest and traffic problems emerge in the prominent pack

The front-runners set it up perfectly for the closers who get clear runs and superior finishing kicks. Apache Tribe and West Hill Verde's class tells with clean passages.

Apache TribeWest Hill VerdeQueens SecretLaguna Beach

Prominent runner survives congestion

30% probability

If one of the prominent runners gets a dream run through the traffic

Laguna Beach or Our Boy Stan threads through cleanly while others get hampered. The soft ground aids their staying power over this extended trip.

Laguna BeachOur Boy StanTimesareachangingStride On

Front-runner gets away

15% probability

If Timesareachanging or Stride On gets an uncontested lead and kicks clear

With the prominent pack stuck behind them, the leader gets first run and holds on grimly. Their proven soft ground form gives them the edge.

TimesareachangingStride OnApache TribeWest Hill Verde

Pace collapses into sprint

10% probability

If both front-runners go too fast early and come back to the field quickly

The race becomes a tactical affair with no true pace, suiting the most talented horse regardless of position. Class prevails over tactics in a messy finish.

Apache TribeTimesareachangingWest Hill VerdeLaguna Beach

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Timesareachanging and Stride On going too fast early could set up a perfect scenario for the hold-up horses behind

WATCH

Traffic problems at the 2-furlong pole when four prominent runners try to improve position simultaneously

NOTE

Apache Tribe's jumping under pressure as Elliott's horses can be rusty returning from lengthy breaks

WATCH

West Hill Verde getting a clear run as Mullins horses often need everything to fall right

NOTE

Our Boy Stan's fitness levels after 127 days off, which is unusually long for the Pauling stable

4:48 — Golf Inn Prestwick Luxury Accommodation Open National Hunt Flat Race (Cat 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)

2m · Soft · CLS2 · 12 runners

4 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Coconut Man and Busted Springs led, as the map showed.

Skerry Hill won at 2.75 — raced midfield, where the map had it led.

3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 4

Skerry HillLe Cold GreyCoconut ManJardin De Tunis

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 4

Close HouseBusted SpringsSea TempestKershaw

Hold Up · 4

Brady HartsfieldKeops Des BordesFinisk PrideOld Habits

Skerry Hill, Le Cold Grey, Jardin De Tunis and Coconut Man will ensure a strong gallop from the start in this 2m contest on testing soft ground. These four confirmed front-runners will set a searching pace that should strip away the weak and test stamina reserves thoroughly. The relentless tempo will expose any fitness doubts and make life difficult for hold-up horses who need to make up significant ground. This race shape strongly favours horses with tactical speed who can track the pace prominently rather than those relying on late kicks from the rear.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Sustained Gallop Dominates

45% probability

If the four leaders maintain a fierce gallop throughout without weakening significantly.

The relentless tempo becomes unsustainable for most, with only the classiest staying types surviving to contest the finish. Prominent racers with proven stamina reserves will have the decisive advantage over hold-up horses left with too much to do.

Brady HartsfieldKeops Des BordesFinisk PrideOld Habits

Early Pace Collapses

30% probability

If Skerry Hill and Le Cold Grey fade early leaving a moderate tempo.

The race becomes more tactical with a sprint finish, allowing the stronger finishers to come from behind and showcase their turn of foot. Hold-up horses get the easier lead they need to mount their challenges.

Old HabitsFinisk PrideKeops Des BordesBrady Hartsfield

One Leader Dominates

15% probability

If Coconut Man or Jardin De Tunis gets a soft lead after rivals fade.

The winner steals a march by dictating terms from the front, building an unassailable advantage that late closers cannot peg back. Front-running tactics prove decisive on the testing ground.

Coconut ManJardin De TunisSkerry HillLe Cold Grey

Chaos and Scrimmaging

10% probability

If the four leaders interfere with each other early or stumble on the soft ground.

The pace becomes stop-start with tactical positioning crucial, creating opportunities for patient hold-up horses to pick up the pieces. The race falls apart tactically, suiting those with the best finishing kicks.

Old HabitsKeops Des BordesSea TempestFinisk Pride

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Skerry Hill could be vulnerable after 169-day layoff despite his front-running style being ideal for dictating terms

WATCH

Close House and Busted Springs are complete unknowns who could upset calculations if ready to win on debut

NOTE

Brady Hartsfield's 4lb weight allowance could prove decisive in a competitive finish between the hold-up horses

WATCH

The soft ground may deteriorate further given the race sequence, potentially favouring the most proven soft ground performers

NOTE

Old Habits needs to overcome both fitness concerns and the strong early pace to showcase his proven class advantage

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 18 April 2026.

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