Archive›Ayr · 20 May 2026

Ayr

20 May 2026 · 8 races

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Read from the in-running comments·How often this is right →

1:42 — Absolut Tabasco Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)

5f · Good · CLS4 · 4 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

2:12 — Kronenbourg 1664 Handicap

6f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Goal Line likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Wee Mary and A Lady Forever led; the map had Goal Line in front.

Jet Warrior won at 7.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Goal Line

Prominent · 1

A Lady Forever

Midfield · 5

Wee MarySummerstorms DreamDoon The GlenCanaria SunBernie The Bear

Hold Up · 3

Jet WarriorClassy ClaretsSiviez

Goal Line appears the only natural early pace angle with his prominent style, but lacks the tactical speed to dominate from the front in a field dominated by hold-up horses. With Wee Mary, A Lady Forever, Canaria Sun, Jet Warrior, Doon The Glen, Siviez, Classy Clarets, Summerstorms Dream and Bernie The Bear all preferring to come from behind, this will develop into a messy, stop-start affair over 6f. The lack of genuine pace pressure means the race will be run at a moderate gallop before turning into a sprint finish. This tactical setup strongly favours the hold-up horses who can produce their best work late, with those able to find gaps and finish fastest holding all the cards.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Sprint Finish

65% probability

If the early pace is moderate as expected with Goal Line unable to stretch the field...

The race becomes a cavalry charge in the final 2f with hold-up horses sweeping past a fading pace angle. Those with the best turn of foot and tactical speed from off the pace will dominate the finish.

Classy ClaretsWee MarySummerstorms DreamCanaria Sun

Prominent Horse Survives

20% probability

If Goal Line or A Lady Forever can establish a more genuine gallop than expected...

The early pace becomes more testing, thinning out the large pack of hold-up horses and allowing a prominently-raced horse to see out the 6f trip. The moderate pace scenario fails to materialise.

A Lady ForeverGoal LineClassy ClaretsWee Mary

Late Surge Chaos

10% probability

If the field splits tactically with some forced to race wide or get blocked for runs...

The sprint finish becomes compromised by traffic problems, favouring those who get clear runs or race on the outside throughout. Position at the business end matters more than pure ability.

SiviezJet WarriorDoon The GlenSummerstorms Dream

Pace Collapse Shock

5% probability

If Goal Line fades early leaving no pace at all in the race...

The gallop becomes pedestrian for 4f before an extreme sprint finish where only the fastest finishers survive. Pure speed from the back trumps all other considerations.

Canaria SunClassy ClaretsWee MarySummerstorms Dream

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Goal Line could set unsustainably fast fractions if over-racing early, compromising his stamina reserves

WATCH

Watch for Classy Clarets to get a smooth passage from the back as his recent win suggests improved form

NOTE

Jet Warrior removal of cheekpieces after improved run could impact his effectiveness

WATCH

Jim Goldie treble chance with Wee Mary, Doon The Glen and Summerstorms Dream all holding strong claims

NOTE

Track bias could develop favouring one side if the field splits, impacting hold-up horses differently

2:42 — Schweppes Cherry Pepper Handicap

1m1f · Good · HCAP · 12 runners

Good Morning Alex to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Ayr Poet led; the map had Good Morning Alex in front.

Footwork won at 5.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Good Morning Alex

Prominent · 5

FootworkLivonianSpirit Of AcklamCisco DiscoAyr Poet

Midfield · 2

MotawaaredDingwall

Hold Up · 4

CandonomoreNorthwest PassagePearl EyeJujubella

Good Morning Alex will take them along at a steady tempo without early pressure, as the five prominent runners (Livonian, Footwork, Spirit Of Acklam, Ayr Poet, Cisco Disco) will likely settle just behind rather than challenge the confirmed leader. This creates a moderate early pace that quickens significantly from 3f out when the prominent brigade engages, setting up a tactical finish. The large hold-up contingent (Candonomore, Pearl Eye, Jujubella, Dingwall, Northwest Passage, Motawaared) will find themselves with plenty to do in the straight as the race unfolds. This pace shape strongly favours prominent racers who can track the pace and kick when it matters, avoiding both the isolation of leading and the traffic problems of coming from behind.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Tactical Strike

55% probability

If the prominent runners settle kindly behind Good Morning Alex and time their challenges perfectly

The moderate early pace allows trackers to conserve energy before unleashing decisive moves from 3f out, avoiding the late traffic that will engulf hold-up horses. Footwork, Spirit Of Acklam and Livonian are perfectly positioned to exploit this scenario.

FootworkSpirit Of AcklamLivonianAyr Poet

Hold-Up Hero Emerges

25% probability

If the pace collapses completely and Good Morning Alex goes too slowly early

A crawling pace becomes a sprint from 2f out, allowing one classy hold-up horse to weave through and strike late when others have shot their bolt. Candonomore or Pearl Eye could capitalise on superior class in a slowly-run race.

CandonomorePearl EyeNorthwest PassageJujubella

Front Runner Kicks Clear

12% probability

If Good Morning Alex gets an easy lead and the prominent runners fail to engage early enough

The leader gets first run on his rivals and opens up a decisive advantage when the pace lifts, holding on as late challengers close but fall short. Good Morning Alex exploits tactical naivety from his pursuers.

Good Morning AlexCisco DiscoFootworkDingwall

Pace Meltdown Chaos

8% probability

If multiple prominent runners go forward early and create a fierce early gallop

The pace becomes unsustainably fast, causing the early leaders to collapse dramatically and allowing a patient hold-up horse to pick up the pieces in a time-test finish. Only horses with proven stamina reserves survive the early burn-up.

Northwest PassageJujubellaDingwallMotawaared

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Good Morning Alex could get too easy a lead if the five prominent runners are too respectful early

WATCH

Spirit Of Acklam returning from 354-day absence despite strong course record, fitness a major concern

NOTE

Candonomore starting for new connections after purchase, potential stable confidence indicator worth noting

WATCH

Traffic problems likely for hold-up horses when prominent runners engage from 3f out

NOTE

Jim Goldie has three runners (Pearl Eye, Ayr Poet, Motawaared) suggesting one could be fancied at bigger odds

3:12 — Altos Tequila Handicap

5f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Donald likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Classy Al led; the map had Donald in front.

Military Girl won at 3.25 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Donald

Prominent · 1

Hi Lord

Midfield · 4

Water Of LeithMilitary GirlHenery HawkThunderstorm Katie

Hold Up · 2

Jm JhingreeClassy Al

Donald will break from the gates and attempt to control this race from the front, with Hi Lord likely to sit just behind him in second position. With no other confirmed front runners in the field, Donald should get an uncontested lead and be able to dictate fractions that suit his needs. The hold-up brigade including Water Of Leith, Military Girl, Thunderstorm Katie, Jm Jhingree, Classy Al and Henery Hawk will all need to rely on the pace being strong enough to set up their finishing kicks. This tactical scenario strongly favours the prominent runners who can sit close to Donald and avoid getting caught behind the large pack of hold-up horses.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Donald Controls Throughout

45% probability

If Donald gets an easy uncontested lead and can dictate moderate fractions

Donald will have too much in reserve for the closers over this minimum trip, while Hi Lord can track him into the straight and benefit from the tactical advantage. The hold-up horses will find themselves with too much ground to make up in the final two furlongs.

DonaldHi LordMilitary GirlThunderstorm Katie

Hold-Up Horses Prevail

30% probability

If Donald goes too fast early or the pace becomes genuinely strong through Hi Lord pressing

The sustained gallop will set up perfectly for the closers to unleash their finishing kicks. Military Girl and Thunderstorm Katie both have the tactical speed to capitalize when the leaders weaken.

Military GirlThunderstorm KatieWater Of LeithHenery Hawk

Hi Lord Times Run Perfectly

15% probability

If Hi Lord can get the perfect trip tracking Donald before quickening at the furlong pole

Gary Harrison's runner can use his recent win as a springboard and benefit from having Donald as a pacemaker. The proximity to the pace gives him a crucial edge over the deep closers who must make up more ground.

Hi LordDonaldMilitary GirlClassy Al

Outsider Benefits From Chaos

10% probability

If the pace collapses completely or there's significant interference in the home straight

Henery Hawk could benefit from his AW form translating and any tactical mishaps ahead of him. Classy Al knows this track intimately and could steal it if the favorites don't deliver.

Henery HawkClassy AlJm JhingreeWater Of Leith

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for Donald getting an uncontested lead as this would give him a significant tactical edge over the hold-up majority

WATCH

Monitor Hi Lord's early positioning - if he can slot in behind Donald he gets the perfect stalking trip

WATCH

Check if Military Girl can secure a clean passage in the final furlong as she'll need clear running to deploy her finishing kick

NOTE

Observe Thunderstorm Katie's early positioning given her hold-up style needs pace development from the prominent runners

NOTE

Watch Henery Hawk's turf adaptation as his AW form suggests ability but his 0-20 turf record raises questions about surface suitability

3:42 — Tennent's Lager Handicap

1m · Good · HCAP · 12 runners

Lead contested: Degale v Garden OasisHISTORIC

How it ran

Garden Oasis and Degale led, as the map showed.

Geo won at 13.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.

4 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

DegaleGarden Oasis

Prominent · 2

Return To UnitSir Paul Ramsey

Midfield · 4

Hale EndRedarnaPenelope's SisterGeo

Hold Up · 4

KaleidoPriaposJannas JourneyMr Mistoffelees

Garden Oasis and Degale will contest the early lead, with Garden Oasis being the more aggressive front-runner based on his style profile. This honest gallop will string out the field over the mile trip, creating a searching test that should expose any fitness doubts. The presence of two confirmed pace-setters ensures no dawdling early fractions, which will set up the race for horses that can position prominently or those with a devastating turn of foot from mid-division. This pace scenario strongly favours prominent racers and those hold-up horses with proven staying power who can capitalize on the inevitable weakening of the early leaders.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Sustained Strong Gallop

45% probability

If Garden Oasis and Degale maintain their duel beyond halfway

The relentless pace will find out any stamina deficiencies and favor horses positioned to strike in the final two furlongs. Prominent racers with tactical speed and proven stayers from off the pace will thrive.

Return To UnitHale EndSir Paul RamseyPriapos

Early Collapse Setup

30% probability

If one of the front-runners folds early leaving a moderate pace

Garden Oasis could dominate if Degale weakens, while the reduced pace helps closers but may not provide enough tempo for a strong finish. Front-runners and those just behind the pace gain a significant advantage.

Garden OasisReturn To UnitDegaleSir Paul Ramsey

Closing Kick Required

15% probability

If the pace becomes truly searching and multiple horses weaken in the final quarter-mile

Only horses with genuine class and a sharp turn of foot will be effective in the final furlong. This scenario demands horses with proven finishing kicks who can accelerate off a solid tempo.

Hale EndJannas JourneyKaleidoPriapos

Messy Pace Compromise

10% probability

If both leaders go too fast early and die dramatically

The race becomes tactical with no clear pace-setter, potentially suiting horses that can adapt to changing circumstances mid-race. Versatile types who can quicken from any position hold the advantage.

Sir Paul RamseyMr MistoffeleesReturn To UnitPenelope's Sister

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Garden Oasis could dictate terms if Degale fails to go with him early, potentially getting first run on his rivals

WATCH

Return To Unit's fitness after 217-day absence will be crucial given his prominent racing style and class advantage

NOTE

Hale End's ability to secure a good position from his hold-up style could determine his chances in a strong pace

WATCH

The combination of Rhys Elliott's 5lb claim and Jannas Journey's hold-up style may prove problematic in a tactical affair

NOTE

Redarna's exceptional course record makes him dangerous despite recent poor form if the pace sets up correctly

4:12 — Birra Poretti Handicap (Div I)

7f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Mr Cool likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Kelpie Grey led; the map had Mr Cool in front.

Roaring Ralph won at 5.50 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Mr Cool

Prominent · 2

Kelpie GreyElizabeth Bay

Midfield · 3

NovakMaui BreezeRoyal Blaze

Hold Up · 3

Roaring RalphAl MuqdadValentine Catcher

Mr Cool appears the sole confirmed front-runner in this nine-runner field, likely to set a sustainable tempo without early pressure. Kelpie Grey and Elizabeth Bay may track prominently but neither is aggressive enough to challenge the lead early. The majority of the field (Al Muqdad, Novak, Maui Breeze, Royal Blaze, Roaring Ralph, Valentine Catcher) are hold-up horses who will settle behind the modest pace. This creates a tactical race where the prominent runners and strong travellers will have a significant advantage over pure hold-up horses who need a stronger gallop.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

45% probability

If Mr Cool sets steady fractions and prominent trackers get first run

The measured pace allows Kelpie Grey and Elizabeth Bay to travel comfortably before quickening, while hold-up horses struggle to make up ground in the straight. Mr Cool's sustainable tempo becomes the perfect setup for horses racing handy.

Mr CoolKelpie GreyElizabeth BayValentine Catcher

Hold-Up Surge Late

30% probability

If the pace becomes crawling and collapses completely in the final two furlongs

The lack of early speed creates a sprint finish where the strongest finishers can overcome their poor positions. Roaring Ralph and Al Muqdad benefit from their recent AW form translating to a tactical finish.

Roaring RalphAl MuqdadRoyal BlazeNovak

Front-Runner Steals It

15% probability

If Mr Cool is allowed completely uncontested fractions through halfway

The Charlie Johnston runner gets such an easy lead that he builds an unassailable advantage, with the field too far back to mount a serious challenge. His recent Kempton second suggests he retains enough ability when getting things his own way.

Mr CoolElizabeth BayKelpie GreyValentine Catcher

Pace Collapse Chaos

10% probability

If multiple horses try to make late moves simultaneously in a messy finish

The steady tempo suddenly ignites into a cavalry charge where the horse with the best turn of foot prevails regardless of position. Royal Blaze's stamina-laden pedigree could be decisive in a scrambled finish.

Royal BlazeNovakMaui BreezeAl Muqdad

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Mr Cool faces no obvious pace pressure which could allow him to dictate terms completely throughout

WATCH

Roaring Ralph's recent AW winning streak may not translate effectively to this turf assignment

NOTE

Maui Breeze returns from 105-day break with inexperienced 3lb claimer taking over riding duties

WATCH

Elizabeth Bay makes seasonal reappearance after 225 days off for trainer with poor recent strike rate

NOTE

Multiple hold-up horses could create traffic problems in the straight if the pace becomes too steady

4:42 — Birra Poretti Handicap (Div II)

7f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Tattie Bogle likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Qazaq led; the map had Tattie Bogle in front.

Native Honey won at 5.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Tattie Bogle

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 5

QazaqMacedonianHabrdiRwenearlytheredadGolden Valour

Hold Up · 3

GreatPension PotNative Honey

Tattie Bogle will likely set the early tempo from his prominent position, with no other confirmed front runners to pressure him early. The pace should be sustainable rather than fierce, allowing the field to stay relatively compact through the middle stages. With eight of nine runners adopting hold-up tactics, there will be significant traffic problems in the straight as they all look for racing room simultaneously. This setup strongly favours prominent racers and those with proven tactical speed to position well early, while pure hold-up horses face a nightmare scenario.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

45% probability

If Tattie Bogle gets an easy lead and isn't pressured early

The pace becomes too slow for the hold-up brigade to make up ground, and Tattie Bogle has enough left to repel late challengers. His recent Musselburgh win came in similar circumstances over this distance.

Tattie BogleHabrdiGreatNative Honey

Traffic Chaos Suits Patient Types

30% probability

If the hold-up horses get badly hampered in running and only a few get clear runs

The race becomes a lottery where positioning and luck matter more than ability, favouring those who get the clearest passage. Patient jockeys who wait longest for gaps will benefit most.

QazaqGreatHabrdiMacedonian

Strong Pace Helps Closers

15% probability

If several horses challenge Tattie Bogle early and force a strong gallop

The genuine pace will set up perfectly for the hold-up horses to sweep past tired leaders in the final furlong. Those with the best finishing kicks will capitalise on the early speed.

Native HoneyMacedonianPension PotRwenearlytheredad

Moderate Pace Suits All

10% probability

If Tattie Bogle sets a steady tempo but gets joined by other prominent racers

The race develops into a fair test where class and current form become the deciding factors rather than tactics. Recent winners and those showing improved form will come to the fore.

HabrdiTattie BogleGreatQazaq

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for traffic problems in the straight with eight hold-up horses needing room simultaneously - several will get badly hampered

WATCH

Monitor Tattie Bogle's early pace-setting - if he gets too easy a lead the hold-up brigade may struggle to reel him in

NOTE

Check how Macedonian and Rwenearlytheredad handle their returns from lengthy breaks after 40+ days off

WATCH

Golden Valour at 10 years old faces a big ask returning after almost seven months away from the track

NOTE

Watch for Habrdi to reproduce his recent course second - he's the main danger to the pace-setter

5:15 — Oasis Summer Fruits Apprentice Handicap

1m · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Glorious Kitty likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Glorious Kitty led, as the map showed.

Glorious Kitty won at 5.50 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Glorious Kitty

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 5

LovetteTap DancerSophiesticateSouth RoadEvelyn's Phoenix

Hold Up · 2

Wolf Of BadenochMwafaq

Glorious Kitty will lead this small field with no other confirmed pace horses to pressure her early. The prominent runner can dictate terms through steady fractions, allowing the large pack of hold-up horses (Wolf Of Badenoch, Mwafaq, Sophiesticate, Tap Dancer, Lovette, South Road, Evelyn's Phoenix) to settle behind. With seven hold-up runners needing to improve positions in the straight, traffic problems are inevitable on Ayr's turning track. This tactical setup clearly favours prominent/pace runners who avoid the closing scramble, giving Glorious Kitty a significant positional advantage despite her poor recent strike rate.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Holds

45% probability

If Glorious Kitty gets soft fractions and stays strong late.

The mare dictates ideal splits without pressure and kicks clear when the hold-up brigade gets shuffled back in traffic. Her recent placed efforts show she runs her race when positioned well early.

Glorious KittyEvelyn's PhoenixMwafaq

Late Closer Finds Gap

30% probability

If the pace collapses and traffic opens for a finisher.

Wolf Of Badenoch or Mwafaq threads through as others get stopped, capitalizing on class or recent form improvement. The reduced marks and fitness advantages tell late when gaps appear.

Wolf Of BadenochMwafaqEvelyn's PhoenixTap Dancer

Pace Duel Develops

15% probability

If another runner challenges Glorious Kitty early and creates faster fractions.

The increased tempo sets up perfectly for a strong closer like Wolf Of Badenoch to sweep past tired leaders. His class edge from higher-grade racing becomes decisive in a truly-run race.

Wolf Of BadenochEvelyn's PhoenixMwafaqTap Dancer

Longshot Strikes

10% probability

If the favourites disappoint and a bigger-priced runner capitalizes.

South Road or Sophiesticate finds improvement from handicap relief or returning to preferred conditions. The open nature of low-grade handicaps allows for surprise results when form horses falter.

South RoadSophiesticateTap DancerLovette

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Glorious Kitty's jumping - if she breaks slowly or gets headed early, her entire advantage disappears in this tactical setup

WATCH

Traffic problems in straight - with seven hold-up runners bunched together, several will get hampered when making moves

WATCH

Wolf Of Badenoch's market support - any shortening suggests connections expect bounce-back from this reduced mark

NOTE

Mwafaq and Evelyn's Phoenix positions turning in - both have shown recent form improvement and need clear runs

NOTE

Pace through first half-mile - if Glorious Kitty goes too fast early she becomes vulnerable to late closers

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 20 May 2026.

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