Tullyegan JetLeva ThomasinaHowaya CodgeHolly's ThunderShirleynightingaleIts All YellowMysilverriverfealeStrong ContenderIdomything
Hold Up · 5
UrinmydreamsLost FeaturesCool As A CatSarah's ExpressDictionary Corner
Poetic Twist is the only confirmed front runner in this 18-runner maiden hurdle and should be allowed to dictate terms uncontested through the early stages. With most rivals showing hold-up or unknown styles, and several having fading tendencies, the pace is likely to be steady rather than searching. The lack of early pressure will create a tactical affair where positioning becomes crucial, with the field bunching up approaching the final bend before a sprint finish unfolds. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers and those with tactical speed who can get into contention early, as hold-up horses will struggle to make ground in a slowly-run race with 18 runners.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Poetic Twist dominates
45% probability
If the favourite gets an uncontested lead and finds the soft ground to his liking.
Elliott's charge can exploit his class advantage with tactical speed from the front, controlling the tempo throughout. The lack of early pace pressure allows him to quicken when it matters and hold off challengers up the straight.
Poetic TwistEchinaceaCrystabelSarah's Express
B
Prominent challenger strikes
30% probability
If one of the prominent racers can track Poetic Twist and outstay him in testing ground.
Crystabel or Echinacea can sit just behind the leader and use their tactical positioning advantage. The soft going becomes a leveller, allowing lesser-rated horses to close the gap on class through stamina.
CrystabelEchinaceaPoetic TwistMysilverriverfeale
C
Hold-up horse springs surprise
15% probability
If the pace collapses completely and a closer gets a dream run through.
Strong Contender or Sarah's Express benefit from a truly-run race where stamina matters more than class. The large field creates opportunities for patient riders to find gaps and make late progress.
If Poetic Twist fails to handle the ground or makes jumping errors under pressure.
The race opens up dramatically with the favourite struggling, allowing an unfancied runner like Idomything to transfer flat form. Chaos in a big field creates opportunities for those at huge odds to sneak through.
IdomythingLost FeaturesCool As A CatIts All Yellow
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Poetic Twist must handle the testing ground better than recent Ayr effort where pace collapsed
WATCH
Echinacea's flat form transfer to hurdles is key with multiple place efforts at longer trips
NOTE
Market support for any of the unraced runners, particularly Holly's Thunder given connections
WATCH
Late jockey declarations could indicate stable confidence, especially for Dreaper runners
NOTE
Any horse that gets squeezed out early in this big field will struggle to recover in testing ground
TribalPuck OutMessire Des BordesCullagh LadAlwaysgoinhomeCloonbonniffeOrchard Cross
Hold Up · 5
Small FryLoyal TouchAncient MythDeep WarriorDahab
Butterfly Mountain is the only confirmed front-runner in this 18-runner maiden hurdle field, likely to get an uncontested lead with most rivals adopting prominent or hold-up tactics. With soft ground favoring sustained galloping over quick acceleration, the lone leader should dictate a steady tempo that builds gradually. Master Haku, Appy Getaway, and Bulgaden Castle can track the pace in the second rank, while multiple hold-up horses like the Flat recruits will need gaps and momentum late. This race shape strongly favors prominent runners who can position handily and kick when the pace lifts, as they avoid both the exposure of leading and the traffic problems facing back-markers in a large field.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Runners Dominate
45% probability
If Master Haku or Appy Getaway can track Butterfly Mountain's steady pace and strike approaching the final flight.
The soft ground suits sustained galloping over sharp acceleration, allowing handy horses to build momentum without facing the exposure of leading or needing late gaps. Elliott's Master Haku has proven hurdles form while Appy Getaway brings winning bumper credentials.
If one of the newcomers like Cullagh Lad or Tribal shows natural jumping ability and benefits from the steady pace.
First-time hurdlers often surprise in maidens when connections find the right opportunity, and the uncontested lead creates an ideal learning environment. The Mahler bloodline of Cullagh Lad or Harzand breeding of Tribal could translate to jumping prowess.
Cullagh LadTribalAlwaysgoinhomeMessire Des Bordes
C
Hold-up Horse Springs Late
15% probability
If the pace becomes genuinely strong and one of the Flat recruits like Small Fry finds gaps in the closing stages.
O'Brien's Small Fry has the highest Flat rating among the newcomers and proven stamina from the Irish Cesarewitch, potentially suiting this trip if the race sets up for closers. Soft ground could help his stamina-laden profile overcome the tactical disadvantage.
Small FryAncient MythLoyal TouchDahab
D
Front Runner Wire-to-Wire
10% probability
If Butterfly Mountain improves dramatically from previous efforts and the field fails to mount serious pressure.
The uncontested lead scenario occasionally produces shock winners in weak maidens, especially when the pace-setter gets confidence from jumping well. However, Butterfly Mountain's poor recent form makes this the least likely outcome despite the tactical advantage.
Butterfly Mountain could steal this if given completely uncontested lead and the field sleeps
WATCH
Watch for market moves on the newcomers Cullagh Lad and Tribal as stable confidence indicators
NOTE
Master Haku's jumping will be key as his class advantage only matters if he handles the obstacles cleanly
NOTE
Any late jockey changes among the reserves could signal live chances for Messire Des Bordes or Deep Warrior
WATCH
Ground conditions may worsen further, potentially favoring the stamina-heavy Flat recruits over speed horses
6:00 — McGrath Limestone Works Handicap Hurdle
2m1f · Soft · HCAP · 14 runners
Becasse likeliest to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Becasse
Prominent · 2
WholelotofbusinessShe Is Electric
Midfield · 7
Teed UpSonny MayPositive EnergyHigh Court CaveCatch The BeastGive Him A ChancePiccolo Player
Hold Up · 4
Arch EmpireFrankendaelSopelanaMiss Manzor
Becasse and Wholelotofbusiness will set a reasonable tempo from the front, with both capable of sustaining their efforts without excessive early pressure in this large field. The majority of runners are hold-up horses who will need the race to develop, creating potential traffic problems and relying on the pace-setters to provide a strong enough gallop. With 11 of the 14 runners carrying hold-up or midfield styles, the early leaders won't face much pressure until the final stages. This race shape clearly favours the prominent/leading horses who can avoid the scramble and have clear sailing throughout.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Front runners dominate
55% probability
If Becasse and Wholelotofbusiness maintain their positions without interference
The lack of early pace pressure allows them to dictate terms and kick clear when the hold-up brigade are still organizing behind them. The soft ground suits their stamina-based profiles and they can exploit positional advantage.
BecasseWholelotofbusinessSopelanaArch Empire
B
Hold-up traffic chaos
25% probability
If the large field bunches up turning for home creating a cavalry charge
Multiple hold-up horses get in each other's way while the best handlers find gaps late. Class and experience become decisive factors in navigating the crowded finish.
FrankendaelHigh Court CaveMiss ManzorGive Him A Chance
C
Prominent tracker strikes
12% probability
If She Is Electric or Sopelana track the leaders perfectly
They get an ideal tow behind the pace-setters before producing superior finishing kicks. The 11-year-old She Is Electric uses her experience while Sopelana's recent Punchestown win gives him confidence.
SopelanaShe Is ElectricBecassePiccolo Player
D
Outsider emerges late
8% probability
If the pace collapses and a big-priced hold-up horse finds clear running
Teed Up or Positive Energy benefit from a messy race where form gets turned upside down. Their higher ratings come to the fore when others have used up energy in traffic.
Positive EnergyTeed UpCatch The BeastSonny May
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Piccolo Player running again after just one day creates serious fitness concerns for any chance
WATCH
Traffic problems inevitable with 11 hold-up horses needing room, watch for interference in straight
NOTE
Becasse and Wholelotofbusiness early positions crucial as they control pace for large pursuing field
WATCH
Miss Manzor and Frankendael both returning after 300+ day absences making fitness unpredictable
NOTE
Soft going consistent across card gives all runners fair conditions without ground advantage
6:30 — BOYLE Sports Supporting Irish Racing Mares Handicap Hurdle
2m5½f · Soft · HCAP · 10 runners
Shadys Lady to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Shadys Lady
Prominent · 4
Carry On HeidiKatie DanielsJoshua's DaylamiLadiam
Midfield · 2
ElsannahAndyourbirdcansing
Hold Up · 3
DameauscottlestownCobra QueenMaxios Prime
Shadys Lady will take this along as the sole confirmed front-runner, setting a sustainable gallop without pressure early. The real congestion comes behind with Carry On Heidi, Joshua's Daylami, Katie Daniels, and Ladiam all wanting prominent positions - this creates a bunching issue approaching the business end with traffic problems likely 2-3 out. The relatively honest pace should set up perfectly for the hold-up horses like Dameauscottlestown, Cobra Queen, and Elsannah to unleash late kicks. This race shape strongly favours horses that can settle and produce sustained finishes from off the pace.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
55% probability
If the prominent horses get tangled up in traffic 2-3 out as expected
The patient riders on the hold-up horses can pick their way through and time their challenges perfectly. The honest early gallop from Shadys Lady gives them the perfect setup to unleash telling late runs.
DameauscottlestownCobra QueenElsannahMaxios Prime
B
Front Running Pays Off
25% probability
If Shadys Lady maintains her gallop and the field fails to close
Her sustainable pace becomes a winning weapon as she keeps finding when challenged. The soft ground may slow down the closers enough for her to hold on grimly.
Shadys LadyKatie DanielsCarry On HeidiJoshua's Daylami
C
Prominent Horse Breaks Clear
12% probability
If one of the prominent runners avoids the traffic and gets first run
They can steal a march while the hold-up horses are still finding racing room behind the struggling pack. Carry On Heidi or Katie Daniels could exploit their forward positions.
Carry On HeidiKatie DanielsLadiamJoshua's Daylami
D
Pace Collapses Early
8% probability
If Shadys Lady stops quickly and no one takes up the running
The race becomes a messy sprint where any horse with a turn of foot can win regardless of position. This chaos scenario opens the door for any runner with pace to burn.
Maxios PrimeAndyourbirdcansingElsannahLadiam
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch for a cavalry charge of hold-up horses led by Dameauscottlestown and Cobra Queen if the prominent runners get tangled up
WATCH
Monitor if Shadys Lady gets an easy lead as she could prove hard to peel back on this soft ground
NOTE
Keep an eye on the 2-3 out marker where the prominent traffic jam is likely to develop with four horses wanting that spot
WATCH
Watch for any market moves on the long-absent Cobra Queen given De Bromhead's ability with returners
NOTE
Check if Joshua's Daylami shows any ring rustiness given the 362-day layoff before backing any prominent scenarios
7:00 — Sherry Fitzgerald Mayo Handicap Hurdle
2m5½f · Soft · HCAP · 19 runners
Made In The Woods to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Made In The Woods
Prominent · 4
Mr DibbsIt's Time AgainJoe's TurnMax Time
Midfield · 8
Ballinaboola GoldGolden OrderYoursimplythebestThe Son Of BregaLa TeneWild As FireEddies PrideDontdooddson
Hold Up · 6
Atlantic GambleIlltakehimmyselfDolly WatkinsSock It To MeRanger BillyCeltic Crossing
Made In The Woods is the sole confirmed front-runner and will lead uncontested from the outset, setting a sustainable gallop over this marathon trip on soft ground. With only It's Time Again and Mr Dibbs likely to race prominently behind the leader, the bulk of this 19-runner field will settle in midfield or towards the rear. The lack of early pace pressure means Made In The Woods can dictate fractions and potentially steal a march, while the large field and soft conditions will create a strung-out affair where those held up face traffic problems. This tactical scenario strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable scramble behind.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Front Runner Dominates
45% probability
If Made In The Woods gets an easy lead and kicks clear turning for home
The veteran can exploit his uncontested advantage and soft ground preference to build an unassailable lead. Hold-up horses struggle to make up ground through the packed field on testing ground.
Made In The WoodsIt's Time AgainMr DibbsJoe's Turn
B
Late Surge Succeeds
30% probability
If the pace collapses and hold-up horses get racing room in the straight
Quality hold-up performers like Dolly Watkins and Atlantic Gamble can unleash finishing kicks despite traffic concerns. The soft ground plays to their stamina reserves over this extended trip.
Dolly WatkinsAtlantic GambleRanger BillySock It To Me
C
Prominent Tactics Win
15% probability
If the leaders maintain a solid gallop but fade in the final furlong
Horses racing in fourth to eighth position can strike the perfect balance between avoiding trouble and staying close enough to pounce. This tactical positioning proves optimal in a messy finish.
It's Time AgainMr DibbsJoe's TurnLa Tene
D
Complete Outsider Shock
10% probability
If the market leaders all disappoint and a forgotten runner emerges
A lightly-weighted improver like La Tene or Yoursimplythebest produces career-best efforts when others falter. The competitive handicap nature allows for surprise winners from the pack.
La TeneYoursimplythebestDontdooddsonGolden Order
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Made In The Woods getting too easy a lead in front - if he's allowed to bowl along unchallenged he could steal this from the front
WATCH
Traffic problems in the straight with 19 runners on soft ground - hold-up horses like Dolly Watkins and Atlantic Gamble need clear runs
NOTE
It's Time Again and Mr Dibbs for fitness first time back - both have been off extended spells and may need the run
NOTE
La Tene building on recent Clonmel third - lightly raced and could be ahead of the handicapper for in-form trainer
WATCH
Multiple horses with fade warnings under pressure - expect several to weaken tamely in the closing stages despite being prominent early
7:30 — Lodge At Ashford Castle Handicap Hurdle
2m5½f · Soft · HCAP · 14 runners
Mi Lucky Cailin likeliest to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Mi Lucky Cailin
Prominent · 1
Lady Bluebird
Midfield · 8
It's Never SimpleFree FlowingBobbysingindabluesLow StyleBrave CroghaWithout ExceptionLissen To The LadyJohnny Cakes
Hold Up · 4
JerkSurvivors SisterIamagetawaySky And Sand
Mi Lucky Cailin will make the running from Lady Bluebird, with no other confirmed pace pressers in this 14-runner field. This sets up a sustainable tempo through the early stages, allowing the leaders to dictate terms without severe pressure. The large field of hold-up horses including Survivors Sister, It's Never Simple, and Sky And Sand will need to navigate traffic problems in the straight. This tactical scenario strongly favours prominent racers and those that can secure good early positions over pure hold-up horses who face positioning nightmares.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Sustainable Pace Setup
45% probability
If Mi Lucky Cailin and Lady Bluebird control the tempo without fierce early pressure
The leaders get an uncontested run to the business end where their fitness tells, while the hold-up brigade gets trapped behind the large field. Early positioning proves decisive as traffic becomes the main obstacle.
Mi Lucky CailinLady BluebirdLissen To The LadyJohnny Cakes
B
Traffic Chaos Benefits Class
30% probability
If the large field of hold-up horses creates a cavalry charge from the back
Superior horses like Survivors Sister and It's Never Simple find gaps when it matters most, using their class edge to overcome positioning disadvantages. The sustained pace suits their finishing kicks.
Survivors SisterIt's Never SimpleJerkSky And Sand
C
Front Two Collapse Late
15% probability
If Mi Lucky Cailin and Lady Bluebird go too fast trying to shake off the field
The pace setters tie up in the final half-mile, creating opportunities for the best-positioned hold-up horses who avoided early trouble. Those with tactical speed like Sky And Sand benefit most.
Sky And SandFree FlowingLow StyleWithout Exception
D
Shock Outsider Strikes
10% probability
If the pace collapses completely and a forgotten horse gets a dream run
A lightly-weighted runner like Johnny Cakes or Without Exception capitalizes on the perfect setup, sneaking through on the rail while favorites get blocked. Weight relief becomes the decisive factor.
Johnny CakesWithout ExceptionBobbysingindabluesBrave Crogha
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Mi Lucky Cailin must handle the 166lbs burden as the only front-runner, any signs of laboring could open floodgates
WATCH
Survivors Sister bolted up by 22 lengths last win but was pulled up when stepped up in class, form reliability questionable
NOTE
It's Never Simple wears tongue-tie for first time and has history of fading in finish, watch for sustained effort
WATCH
Multiple hold-up horses including Sky And Sand and Jerk returning from long breaks, fitness levels uncertain
NOTE
Amateur and claiming jockeys on Bobbysingindablues, Lady Bluebird, and Brave Crogha may struggle with pace positioning in large field
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.