Minella Post led; the map had Coolishael in front.
Colliers Quay won at 6.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Coolishael
Prominent · 1
Minella Post
Midfield · 11
NoharmintryingMyhero La ColmineLexennaElusive TruceDon't Tell PaddyColliers QuayBeyond ForgivenessLeva DevaLastofthenativesGreen GrassDiscrete
Hold Up · 5
VargasTommy Go MaithSankofaRoll It RoisinNothintodowithme
Coolishael is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 18-runner maiden hurdle and, critically, is tagged as racing out of role at the head of affairs — meaning even the one horse expected to lead may not do so with full conviction or natural comfort. With no other confirmed front-runner pressing for the lead, the early pace is likely to be steady and uncontested, creating a single-file procession on good ground at Ballinrobe over 2m2½f. The field holds considerably more hold-up types than the race map can accommodate at the rear — Leva Deva, Lastofthenatives, Green Grass, and Discrete are all genuine hold-up horses redistributed into midfield positions they will not naturally find, meaning the race shape behind Coolishael is likely to be bunched and traffic-prone. A controlled tempo with one horse controlling from the front on decent ground will suit horses that can travel prominently or in a handy position off a slow pace, rather than those relying on a strong gallop to deliver a late run.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Coolishael Controls Unchallenged
52% probability
If Coolishael leads without serious pressure and dictates a steady, sustainable tempo throughout.
Coolishael sets the fractions from the front on good ground, and without any rival applying early pressure the race turns into a test of jumping and staying power from the head of affairs; horses able to travel prominently just off the pace are ideally positioned to pounce at the second-last. Prominent-style horses like Minella Post and Colliers Quay, who can race handily without fighting for position, benefit most from a soft early gallop that rewards fluency and a well-timed challenge.
CoolishaelMinella PostColliers QuayVargas
B
Handy Midfield Horse Pounces
28% probability
If the pace is moderate enough that a horse tracking the leader in third or fourth position coasts into contention and wins going away.
A slow early tempo compresses the field and allows a horse sitting just off the pace to avoid any jumping errors from the front while saving enough for the run-in; on good ground over this trip the winner is often a horse that jumps the last two hurdles fluently from a prominent position. Vargas, trained by Gordon Elliott and carrying strong market expectation, and Colliers Quay both profile as horses who could slot into this prime midfield-to-prominent position.
VargasColliers QuayMinella PostBeyond Forgiveness
C
Late Closer Threads Through
13% probability
If traffic issues among the redistributed midfield pack create a split that allows a genuine hold-up horse to weave through.
The overcrowded midfield — stuffed with true hold-up horses such as Leva Deva, Lastofthenatives, and Green Grass pushed out of their natural rear position — creates a chaotic mid-race order, and if any one of them can find a clear passage on the run to two out a late run becomes possible. This scenario is materially discounted because these horses are not true midfield racers and are likely to be disadvantaged by the traffic and the slow early pace that will have already done its damage by the time gaps appear.
LastofthenativesSankofaGreen GrassRoll It Roisin
D
Unknown Debutant Lands Gamble
7% probability
If one of the unraced or lightly raced unknown-style runners — Noharmintrying, Myhero La Colmine, Elusive Truce, or Don't Tell Paddy — is vastly superior on debut.
A well-prepared unknown quantity from a yard with live form could exploit a modest pace by travelling in the right position without the baggage of established form lines; on good ground in a weak maiden the bar is not high. This is low probability because none of these horses have a known running style that fits a definable scenario and the tactical uncertainty is very high.
NoharmintryingMyhero La ColmineElusive TruceDon't Tell Paddy
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Coolishael is the only confirmed front-runner but is tagged as racing out of role — watch whether it actually shows up at the head of affairs at the start, because if it drops away from the lead the pace collapses entirely and the race becomes a sprint from the last.
WATCH
The midfield is dangerously overcrowded with redistributed hold-up types (Leva Deva, Lastofthenatives, Green Grass, Discrete) — watch for a traffic pile-up or interference between the third-last and second-last hurdle as these horses try to find gaps that do not exist.
WATCH
Noharmintrying's trainer Aidan Anthony Howard is 2/3 in the 14-day window — watch market moves on this debutant, as a well-backed newcomer from a yard in form could be carrying significant stable confidence regardless of the pace map uncertainty.
NOTE
Vargas for Gordon Elliott is the highest-profile hold-up type in the field — watch whether Josh Williamson tries to push up from the midfield slot rather than sitting deep, as a pace-change decision early could significantly alter how much of a run this horse gets.
NOTE
Minella Post is the only prominent-style horse apart from Coolishael that has consistent good-ground runs on the board — watch its jumping, as a horse that travels fluently in second or third off the lone front-runner is best placed to win this race if Coolishael's lead is not extreme.
5:26 — Hollymount Nursing Home Handicap Hurdle
2m2½f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners
Manoir De Mirande likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Ocean Murphy led; the map had Manoir De Mirande in front.
Ocean Murphy won at 3.50 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Manoir De Mirande
Prominent · 1
William F Browne
Midfield · 2
Ocean MurphyNile Star
Hold Up · 2
O'Grady CrackerHoundsworth
Manoir De Mirande is the sole confirmed front runner in a field of six and, with no rival likely to push for the lead, will dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop around Ballinrobe's tight circuit over 2m2½f on Good ground. William F Browne is the only other horse with prominent tendencies and may track Manoir De Mirande, but he brings a poor recent record and is unlikely to apply meaningful pressure. The hold-up contingent — O'Grady Cracker, Houndsworth, Ocean Murphy and Nile Star — is oversized relative to the pace on offer, meaning the rear of the field will be congested and closers will need to navigate traffic before they can challenge. This race shape strongly favours Manoir De Mirande and any horse capable of racing prominently in an uncontested lead scenario, as a single front runner setting a measured tempo on Good ground is the classic recipe for a front-runner's day; true hold-up horses face extra risk because the field holds more hold-up types than genuine back-markers, and Ocean Murphy and Nile Star — both redistributed to midfield from their natural rear position — are least likely to secure the ground they need to finish best.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Manoir De Mirande Controls
69% probability
If Manoir De Mirande secures the lead unchallenged and dictates a steady, rhythm-friendly gallop throughout.
Manoir De Mirande, in excellent recent form (two wins from last three over 18f on Good), bowls along in front and uses the Ballinrobe track to his advantage, never coming off the bridle until he presses the button; the prominent runners behind him lack the firepower to close the gap when he extends.
Manoir De MirandeWilliam F BrowneO'Grady CrackerOcean Murphy
B
Prominent Challenger Pegs Back
16% probability
If William F Browne or another prominent type tracks Manoir De Mirande closely enough to apply pressure in the straight and force a battle.
A contested front-end duel depletes Manoir De Mirande's reserves late, cracking open the race for a horse able to travel prominently without expending early energy; O'Grady Cracker, coming off back-to-back wins, would be best placed to sweep past a tiring leader from just off the pace.
O'Grady CrackerWilliam F BrowneManoir De MirandeOcean Murphy
C
Closers Swoop Late
10% probability
If the pace is surprisingly strong and Manoir De Mirande ties up in the final flight, leaving the race to a horse produced with a late run.
Ocean Murphy arrives on the back of two wins over 20f on Good and has the stamina profile to finish powerfully; however, both Ocean Murphy and Nile Star are redistributed from true hold-up positions and may not secure the clear run needed, making this scenario fragile.
Ocean MurphyO'Grady CrackerHoundsworthNile Star
D
Attrition Claims Outsider
5% probability
If the race unravels through jumping errors or fallers, reducing the field and handing an opportunity to a lesser-fancied runner.
Houndsworth won over 16f on Good and carries a 7lb claim for Alan King, giving a lightly weighted profile that could benefit from chaos; Nile Star has shown a recurring tendency to fade and is the least likely beneficiary here.
HoundsworthNile StarWilliam F BrowneO'Grady Cracker
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Manoir De Mirande's lead must be monitored at the top of the home straight — if he quickens smoothly there without challenge, the race is effectively over; any sign of a jumping error or a shortening stride is the only trigger for the scenarios behind him.
WATCH
O'Grady Cracker and Houndsworth will likely be jostling for position in a congested hold-up group; watch for crowding on the final bend as multiple closers attempt to fan wide simultaneously, which could cost ground at a crucial moment.
WATCH
Ocean Murphy's jockey Darragh O'Keeffe may be forced to commit earlier than ideal given the midfield mapping; if O'Keeffe can't find a clear run between the last two hurdles, his powerful finishing style is negated.
NOTE
William F Browne's five-day turnaround is unusually quick for a horse with a 7R560 recent sequence — watch how he travels in the first half mile; if he is struggling to keep tabs on Manoir De Mirande before halfway, he becomes irrelevant.
NOTE
Nile Star's 43-day absence and habitual late fade make him the most likely horse to drop away under pressure on the run-in; jockey Shane Markey (7) will need to produce a tactically precise ride to extract any value.
6:00 — Paddy Smyth Memorial Mares Maiden Hurdle
2m6½f · Good · MDN · 13 runners
Ronnie's Rascal likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Clash Gold led; the map had Ronnie's Rascal in front.
Amina won at 2.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Run For PowerI Dont Really CareGunner GirlFree A Minute
Ronnie's Rascal is the confirmed front-runner and, with Willie Mullins' booking of Brian Hayes, will be sent to make the running from flag to flag over this 2m6½f trip on Good ground at Ballinrobe. Goodgollymissholly, Amina, Cool Native, and Doesthatmakesense are all prominent-style types who will push for position behind the leader, creating a competitive early sectional that should produce a genuinely honest gallop rather than a dawdle. The field holds more prominent and hold-up types than can all find their natural position — Clash Gold, a true hold-up horse redistributed to midfield on the map, is most likely to end up racing slightly further back than its rivals would prefer, limiting its ability to produce a late run off a true pace. This race shape — a single, consistent front-runner setting a sustainable rhythm on Good ground over a staying trip — most favours horses with a prominent running style who can track the pace efficiently, travel into contention turning for home, and sustain their effort through the final obstacles without needing a strong late sprint.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Honest Pace, Prominent Wins
62% probability
If Ronnie's Rascal sets a genuine but sustainable gallop and the prominent trackers travel comfortably throughout.
Goodgollymissholly and Amina, both proven prominent types on Good ground, will be ideally placed to challenge in the straight having raced within striking distance throughout; the honest pace over 2m6½f on a sound surface suits those with proven stamina and clean jumping.
GoodgollymisshollyAminaCool NativeCastle Garden
B
Pace Collapses, Late Surge
18% probability
If Ronnie's Rascal goes too hard early and the field concertinas in the final mile.
A collapse in the leader's stamina reserve would open the door for horses who have been restrained slightly off the pace, allowing Cool Native or Castle Garden to pick up the pieces with fresh legs; this is the scenario where Clash Gold's natural hold-up profile becomes a genuine asset rather than a liability.
Cool NativeCastle GardenClash GoldLabondance
C
Front Runner Dominates
13% probability
If Ronnie's Rascal is allowed to control proceedings at a comfortable clip and none of the prominent types can close the gap.
With a Mullins-trained hurdler on Good ground and Brian Hayes dictating every fraction, Ronnie's Rascal could simply control the race from the front and win on the bridle; this scenario is tempered by its STYLE_FIT tag suggesting it may not reproduce its best in this tactical role in a competitive field.
Ronnie's RascalGoodgollymisshollyAminaCool Native
D
Attrition, Improver Lands
7% probability
If the extended 2m6½f trip and a testing honest gallop cause wholesale fatigue, leaving the race to a lightly-raced unexposed type.
Daphne Blake or Castle Garden, both lightly raced and carrying unknown ceilings, could benefit if the race becomes a stamina test that exposes the limitations of more exposed rivals; this scenario is unlikely but possible given the number of horses with uninspiring recent form strings in this maiden.
Castle GardenDaphne BlakeLabondanceI Dont Really Care
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch Goodgollymissholly and Amina at the early stages — both will push for position behind Ronnie's Rascal and if either gets a comfortable berth in second or third, they hold the clearest profile to challenge from the front rank in the straight.
WATCH
Monitor Clash Gold's position jumping off — as a genuine hold-up horse redistributed to midfield on the map, if it gets shuffled back to its natural position at the rear it may lack the straight-line room to deliver its best finishing effort over this trip.
WATCH
Ronnie's Rascal's early gallop rate is key — if Brian Hayes sends it clear and the pace becomes too strong too soon on Good ground, the prominent pack will come under pressure a long way from home and the race could be thrown wide open.
NOTE
Castle Garden and Daphne Blake are both lightly-raced unknowns ridden by strong jockeys (Slevin and Shinnick) — either could outrun their experience if their unexposed stamina profile matches the 2m6½f trip.
NOTE
The Doesthatmakesense and Free A Minute fade flags are worth tracking in running — both carry prominent/hold-up styles with proven tendency to stop late, and in a genuine gallop at this trip they are likely to be swallowed up in the final half-mile.
6:30 — Jerry McDonnell Memorial Handicap Hurdle
2m6½f · Good · HCAP · 19 runners
Giorgia Rose likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Ancient Myth led; the map had Giorgia Rose in front.
Princess Felicia won at 4.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.
8 of 16 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Giorgia Rose
Prominent · 4
Joshua ChamberlainMy Good PalIt's Time AgainRanger Billy
Midfield · 8
ChanceitluckyBlackwater SoldierFine PrintBut What About MePhildanteTawny LeaTantrum BoyPrincess Felicia
Giorgia Rose is the sole confirmed front-runner in a 19-runner field and, crucially, faces no genuine pace rival likely to challenge her for the lead — she should settle into a comfortable, controlled rhythm from the front over this 2m6½f trip on Good ground. The pace she generates will be honest but not frantic, creating a clean gallop that rewards horses able to travel prominently without expending excessive early energy. My Good Pal, Joshua Chamberlain, Ranger Billy and It's Time Again are the likely prominent trackers, meaning the front quarter of the field will be fairly compact and organised. This race shape — a single controlled front-runner, solid prominent cover, and a big field — strongly favours prominent-to-midfield runners with good stamina reserves who can challenge from the home turn rather than late-finishing hold-up types who will face significant traffic and too much ground to make up. The field holds considerably more true hold-up types than the race shape can accommodate at the rear: Chanceitlucky, Fine Print, Phildante, Princess Felicia and Tawny Lea are all genuine closers repositioned into a midfield mapping, with Giorgia Rose and My Good Pal most likely to dictate and secure their natural positions.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Giorgia Rose Controls
48% probability
If Giorgia Rose is allowed to bowl along uncontested and sets a measured, sustainable gallop that saps the stamina of those tracking.
Giorgia Rose uses her prominent style to lead from the front, and with no meaningful pressure, dictates pace and jumps well to keep rivals honest — prominent trackers who travel smoothly into the home turn are perfectly positioned.
Giorgia RoseMy Good PalJoshua ChamberlainRanger Billy
B
Prominent Trackers Pounce
28% probability
If the pace is just strong enough to stretch the field and the prominent-to-midfield movers travel fluently throughout.
My Good Pal and Joshua Chamberlain track Giorgia Rose comfortably and challenge from the second-last, their class and stamina at this trip proving decisive in a finish between prominent handlers.
My Good PalJoshua ChamberlainRanger BillyGerrys Wish
C
Midfield Stayer Lands It
15% probability
If the gallop is genuinely strong enough to cause attrition at the front and a well-handicapped stayer picks through beaten rivals.
Gerrys Wish or Phildante, both with strong form over similar distances on Good ground, travel through the pack on the bridle and hit the front at a crucial moment when the leaders begin to tie up.
Gerrys WishPhildanteChanceitluckyFine Print
D
Closers Pounce Late
9% probability
If the early pace is surprisingly hot and the front rank burns out, leaving the extreme hold-up runners with a clear passage.
This is the least likely shape given that true closers like Chanceitlucky, Tawny Lea and Fine Print are all out of their natural position in this race map and face the twin challenges of a manageable pace and significant traffic in a big field.
ChanceitluckyFine PrintTawny LeaPrincess Felicia
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Giorgia Rose is uncontested in front and if Emmet Mullins's mare jumps cleanly from the off and settles into her rhythm, she could prove very difficult to peg back in this shape — watch how composed she looks at the top of the home straight.
WATCH
My Good Pal's trainer Gavin Cromwell is firing on all cylinders (7/27 T14) and this horse has the style and stamina to be dangerous tracking the leader — watch whether Mr B M Coonan gets a clean position behind the pace from the first hurdle.
WATCH
Jack Kennedy on Gerrys Wish for Gordon Elliott is a booking that commands attention in any race; watch whether Kennedy can position this consistent Good-ground stayer close enough to challenge from the home turn rather than being left with too much to do.
NOTE
With 19 runners, the sheer volume of hold-up horses repositioned into midfield — including Chanceitlucky, Fine Print and Phildante — means traffic congestion turning for home is a significant risk; watch for crowding inside the final four hurdles that could end winning chances prematurely.
NOTE
Ranger Billy's booking of J J Slevin for the Heffernan yard is a notable jockey upgrade worth monitoring — if Slevin can get this prominent ten-year-old into his natural rhythm early, the placed form over 22f on Good suggests he may be underestimated at a handicap mark of 84.
7:00 — BOYLE Sports Home Of The Early Payout Steeplechase
2m1f · Good · DEFAULT · 6 runners
Runcok to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Runcok led, as the map showed.
Bunting won at 1.91 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Runcok
Prominent · 2
Jazzy MattyAddragoole
Midfield · 2
Ma Jacks HillBunting
Hold Up · 1
Bowensonfire
Runcok is the sole confirmed front-runner in this six-horse field and, with no genuine rival to push him along, he should be able to dictate a measured, controlled gallop from the front on Good ground over 2m1f at Ballinrobe. Addragoole, Jazzy Matty, Ma Jacks Hill, and Bunting all carry prominent tendencies, but the field holds more forward-going types than can realistically secure that territory — Ma Jacks Hill and Bunting are both true prominent racers who will find themselves shuffled into midfield roles they do not naturally fill, reducing their effectiveness. Bowensonfire is the only genuine hold-up horse, giving the race a compressed mid-pack shape where several horses will be racing out of their preferred positions. This race shape strongly favours Runcok if he travels well in front, and — because the pace is unlikely to be strong enough to stretch the field — it also rewards prominent types like Addragoole and Jazzy Matty who can land close to him without expending excess energy, making class and jumping fluency the decisive late factors rather than any late sprint from held-up horses.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Runcok Controls From Front
68% probability
If Runcok travels comfortably in front and the prominent horses cannot sustain a challenge turning in.
Runcok sets a manageable pace unchallenged, arrives at the final fences full of running, and his Good-ground form and sole front-runner status make him near-impossible to dislodge; this shape rewards front-running class and clean jumping.
RuncokAddragooleJazzy MattyBowensonfire
B
Prominent Horse Pegs Back Leader
17% probability
If a prominent racer — most likely Addragoole or Jazzy Matty — tracks Runcok closely and outjumps or outclasses him in the final half-mile.
Runcok's lead is sustainable but not unassailable, and a classier rival sitting a length off his girth can pounce at the second-last; Addragoole's OR of 140 and recent win form on Good gives this thread the most credibility.
AddragooleJazzy MattyRuncokBowensonfire
C
Hold-Up Horse Swoops Late
9% probability
If the gallop is genuinely strong enough to string the field out and Bowensonfire is produced with a sustained late run.
Bowensonfire, handled by Jack Kennedy and with placed form at this distance on Good, is the only true closer in the race and needs a strong pace to overhaul the leaders; this scenario is constrained by the likelihood of Runcok keeping things comfortable.
BowensonfireAddragooleJazzy Matty
D
Compressed Finish — Midfielders Strike
6% probability
If Ma Jacks Hill or Bunting, despite racing out of their natural prominent role, find enough room to challenge in the closing stages.
Both horses are effectively racing out of role in the midfield they are mapped to, suppressing their chance; a messy or falsely-run race could bring them back into contention, but their redistribution flags mean this is the least bankable shape.
Ma Jacks HillBuntingAddragooleRuncok
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Runcok's jumping — if he makes an error at a key fence in front, Addragoole or Jazzy Matty are positioned to capitalise immediately given how close they will be tracking him.
WATCH
Bowensonfire ran just two days ago; monitor market moves and any jockey/trainer comments, as a horse this fresh to back-to-back runs may not be at peak sharpness for a chasing effort.
WATCH
Ma Jacks Hill and Bunting — both natural prominent types — may jostle for position in the early stages as they attempt to recover their preferred spot, risking interference or wasted energy in the first half-mile.
NOTE
The Good-ground going report is consistent across all races at Ballinrobe today, so no runner faces a going surprise, but Jazzy Matty's sim-going record of 11/15 runs on this surface is the strongest in the field and worth noting if the race is truly run to suit prominent types.
7:30 — Corrib Oil Beginners Steeplechase
2m7½f · Good · DEFAULT · 9 runners
Slurricane likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Rusty Harkness and Maverick Mack led; the map had Slurricane in front.
Rusty Harkness won at 3.50 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Slurricane
Prominent · 3
Rusty HarknessMickie AngelJeroboam Machin
Midfield · 2
Fou De ToiKevin's Pride
Hold Up · 3
Maverick MackDonnie DevitoJolie Jewel
Slurricane is the confirmed front-runner and will set sail from the front in what is a 2m7½f beginners' chase on good ground at Ballinrobe — a trip and surface that rewards a measured, economical gallop rather than a tearaway pace. With Slurricane largely uncontested up front, the tempo is expected to be sustainable and controlled, meaning the race will unfold as a genuine test of jumping accuracy and staying stamina rather than a speed-driven affair. This field holds more prominent types than can all secure their natural position: Fou De Toi and Kevin's Pride are genuine front-runners remapped to midfield on the shape chart, with Jeroboam Machin and Rusty Harkness the prominent horses most likely to actually slot in behind Slurricane. The tactical verdict is clear — with a lone front-runner dictating a true but unforced gallop, this race shape strongly favours hold-up horses and genuine stayers who travel kindly and finish well, particularly those with demonstrated form on good ground at extended distances.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Slurricane Controls, Stayers Finish
63% probability
If Slurricane bowls along at a fair clip unchallenged and the race develops into a searching test of stamina in the final mile.
Slurricane sets an uncontested pace that suits those travelling efficiently off it, leaving the race to be decided between hold-up horses and genuine prominent types who can close strongly over the last few fences; the extended 2m7½f on good ground rewards horses who conserve energy through the race. Hold-up types Donnie Devito and Jolie Jewel, with demonstrated form at this sort of trip on good ground, are best placed to capitalise.
If Jeroboam Machin or Rusty Harkness jump well throughout and are able to press Slurricane into the home turn, forcing a decisive move before the last.
A sharper middle section of the race compresses the field and rewards horses that have been travelling comfortably in the prominent positions throughout rather than having to make up ground late; good jumping becomes the decisive variable over the final three fences. Rusty Harkness, with recent winning form at this sort of trip on good ground, and Jeroboam Machin, consistent in good-ground conditions, are the primary beneficiaries.
If the pace collapses in the straight and hold-up horses find a clear run to deliver their challenge from off the pace in the final half-mile.
Maverick Mack, trained by Gordon Elliott and held up off a moderate gallop, could arrive late if the front-runners stop in front of him; however, his recent form string includes a fall and a pulled-up, introducing significant uncertainty around his current jumping reliability. The scenario is possible but depends on better jumping from Maverick Mack than his recent outings suggest and a genuine collapse in pace from Slurricane.
Maverick MackDonnie DevitoJolie JewelFou De Toi
D
Redistributed Types Disrupt Shape
7% probability
If Fou De Toi or Kevin's Pride push forward aggressively and succeed in taking their natural prominent position, injecting more pressure into the early pace than anticipated.
A more truly-run gallop than the single front-runner map suggests would stretch the field earlier and potentially leave Slurricane vulnerable, favouring horses that have the class to sustain a higher cruising speed; both Fou De Toi and Kevin's Pride carry [STYLE_FIT] flags indicating they are racing out of their preferred role in the projected shape, making this scenario inherently less probable. Rusty Harkness and Jeroboam Machin, capable of racing prominently at a proper gallop, would be the main beneficiaries if the pace truly heats up.
Kevin's PrideRusty HarknessFou De ToiJeroboam Machin
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Slurricane's form figures (0-9-10-8-14) are deeply concerning for a horse set to lead throughout — watch whether he retains any enthusiasm jumping and whether he starts to be reeled in from three out, triggering a chaotic reshuffle in the home straight.
WATCH
Maverick Mack's jumping record (fall, pulled-up in recent runs) is a live risk around Ballinrobe's fences over 2m7½f — any jumping error from him could cause interference for hold-up horses travelling behind him.
WATCH
Fou De Toi and Kevin's Pride are genuine prominent types who may attempt to push forward at the start despite the map placing them in midfield — if either succeeds, the early gallop could be sharper than anticipated and alter the entire race shape.
NOTE
Rusty Harkness (Darragh O'Keeffe, de Bromhead) arrives in the best verifiable form in the field with a win and a second in his last two; watch how he travels in the prominent group as an indicator of whether Slurricane's pace is genuinely sustainable or not.
NOTE
Donnie Devito's trainer Ross O'Sullivan also saddles Slurricane — watch for any team tactics and whether Gilligan on Donnie Devito is instructed to track Slurricane closely, which could give the hold-up horse a significant positional advantage in the straight.
8:00 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Flat Race
2m½f · Good · DEFAULT · 12 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.