Archive›Ballinrobe · 8 May 2026

Ballinrobe

8 May 2026 · 8 races

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4:40 — Harrington Concrete & Quarries Optional Claiming Race

1m1½f · Good To Soft · DEFAULT · 11 runners

Borora Aura likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Borora Aura and Divelment led, as the map showed.

Personified won at 3.50 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Borora Aura

Prominent · 1

Aurevoir Tristesse

Midfield · 6

Moon AuraIncredible ArmySchoolyard DaysLilo PelekaiDarwin's AngelRoyal Sapphire

Hold Up · 3

DivelmentPersonifiedTeologia

Borora Aura is the only confirmed front runner in this field and should get an uncontested lead with no early pressure expected. The prominent runners Aurevoir Tristesse may track close, but the majority of this field comprises hold-up horses including Divelment, Personified, Teologia, and the Foley pair. This creates a slow early gallop that will build into a sprint finish over the final 3-4 furlongs. The tactical setup strongly favors front runners and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will plague the large pack of hold-up horses.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Running

45% probability

If Borora Aura gets an easy lead and the pace stays moderate throughout

The lack of early pace pressure allows the leader to dictate terms and kick clear when the field comes under pressure. Hold-up horses get caught in traffic behind a wall of horses with similar tactics.

Borora AuraMoon AuraAurevoir TristessePersonified

Late Prominent Surge

30% probability

If Aurevoir Tristesse or Moon Aura can track the leader without overracing

The prominent runners get first run on the weakening leader while avoiding the scrimmaging further back. They benefit from a solid pace foundation without the energy expenditure of making it.

Aurevoir TristesseMoon AuraBorora AuraPersonified

Hold-Up Horse Clear Run

15% probability

If the pace collapses completely and one hold-up horse gets a dream passage

Divelment or Personified could benefit from superior class if they get racing room that most of their hold-up rivals won't find. The slow pace becomes a sprint where raw ability trumps position.

DivelmentPersonifiedIncredible ArmyTeologia

Pace Collapse Scramble

10% probability

If multiple hold-up horses get clear runs simultaneously in a slowly-run race

The race becomes a pure sprint finish where the best horse on the day can overcome tactical disadvantages. Traffic problems still eliminate several contenders but don't decide the entire outcome.

PersonifiedIncredible ArmyTeologiaDivelment

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for Borora Aura getting too easy a lead early - if unchallenged through halfway could prove hard to peg back

WATCH

Monitor the pack of hold-up horses for traffic problems turning for home - many will get stopped in their runs

NOTE

Check if Aurevoir Tristesse settles kindly in cheekpieces or gets too keen tracking the leaders

WATCH

Watch for Divelment and Personified getting clear passages - they need racing room to show their ability

NOTE

Observe if Moon Aura handles the step up in trip or shows signs of stopping in the final furlong

5:15 — Brian Forkan Construction Maiden

1m1½f · Good To Soft · MDN · 8 runners

Glamazon likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Glamazon and Pass The Buck led, as the map showed.

Glamazon won at 3.50 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Glamazon

Prominent · 1

Avec Grand Plaisir

Midfield · 4

Cascade CanyonLord AusPriorstownPremier Princess

Hold Up · 2

MaxminelliPass The Buck

Glamazon is the sole confirmed front runner and will dictate terms from the gates, with Avec Grand Plaisir the only other prominent runner likely to track her early. This creates a soft pace scenario with minimal early pressure, allowing the leaders to control fractions through the first mile. The large contingent of hold-up horses (Maxminelli, Cascade Canyon, Priorstown, Lord Aus, Premier Princess, Pass The Buck) will need to mount late challenges from off the pace. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners and those who can travel just behind the pace, as the lack of early speed will make it difficult for hold-up horses to pick up the pieces.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Glamazon Controls Throughout

45% probability

If Glamazon gets an uncontested lead and maintains her rhythm

She can dictate comfortable fractions and prove hard to peg back, with any prominent tracker like Avec Grand Plaisir struggling to get past. The soft pace plays directly into the hands of those who can stay handy early.

GlamazonAvec Grand PlaisirMaxminelliPriorstown

Late Cavalry Charge

25% probability

If the pace becomes pedestrian enough to allow closers to strike

The hold-up horses can time their runs perfectly as the leaders falter, with Maxminelli and Priorstown benefiting from the step up in trip. Pass The Buck could also emerge late if the tempo suits his style.

MaxminelliPriorstownPass The BuckCascade Canyon

Tactical Battle

20% probability

If Avec Grand Plaisir or another runner pressures Glamazon early

A genuine pace develops that sets up the race for a strong closer, with the De Bromhead-trained Maxminelli best placed to capitalise. The hold-up horses finally get the race shape they need.

MaxminelliPass The BuckPriorstownLord Aus

Surprise Package

10% probability

If one of the outsiders shows significant improvement

Cascade Canyon or Lord Aus could spring a shock if they handle the step up in trip better than expected. The maiden nature of the contest leaves room for an unexposed runner to emerge.

Cascade CanyonLord AusPremier PrincessAvec Grand Plaisir

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if Glamazon gets pressured early as she's unproven under sustained pressure and could fold quickly

WATCH

Monitor Maxminelli's position turning for home as he needs to be close enough to strike given his hold-up style

WATCH

Check if Lord Aus misses the break again as slow starts have been a pattern and will be costly in a small field

NOTE

Observe Pass The Buck in the final furlong as his fading tendency could resurface despite the longer trip

NOTE

Watch Cascade Canyon's early position as his running style is unclear and could determine his chances

5:50 — SIS, Supporting Irish Racing Maiden

1m1½f · Good To Soft · MDN · 10 runners

Mano Chicago likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Mano Chicago and North Ocean led, as the map showed.

Marmeladova won at 13.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Mano Chicago

Prominent · 3

NavinskyWild SapphireNorth Ocean

Midfield · 3

NelliestarRyans HopeZammawar

Hold Up · 3

Cracking CloudMarmeladovaGlendower

Mano Chicago will take them along at a steady clip from the front, with Wild Sapphire, North Ocean, and Navinsky tracking close behind in the prominent positions. The pace will be sustainable rather than fierce given the distance and maiden nature, with no obvious speed horses to apply early pressure. This creates a race where the prominent runners can dictate terms and kick from the front, while the hold-up horses like Cracking Cloud face a stiff task coming from behind on yielding ground. The race shape clearly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can position well early and avoid traffic problems.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runners Dominate

60% probability

If Mano Chicago and Wild Sapphire settle well in the first two positions without early pressure

The sustainable early pace allows the prominent pair to save energy for a decisive move turning for home, making it difficult for closers to pick them up. The yielding ground compounds the advantage for horses that avoid having to make ground late.

Mano ChicagoWild SapphireNavinskyNorth Ocean

Late Closer Strikes

25% probability

If the early pace becomes too slow and the front runners stop kicking

Cracking Cloud gets the perfect setup from his hold-up style, finding racing room in the straight to sweep past tiring leaders. The longer distance plays to his stamina strengths when others fade.

Cracking CloudMarmeladovaWild SapphireMano Chicago

Navinsky Bounces Back

10% probability

If the cheekpieces sharpen up Navinsky and he overcomes his fading tendency

His class edge from that neck second at Navan resurfaces with the headgear helping him see out the trip properly. The prominent position gives him every chance to strike when it matters.

NavinskyNorth OceanWild SapphireMano Chicago

Unconsidered Winner

5% probability

If the market leaders all underperform and a bigger price strikes

One of the lesser-fancied horses finds significant improvement or benefits from a chaotic pace scenario. The maiden nature means any horse could find dramatic improvement.

North OceanGlendowerCracking CloudRyans Hope

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Mano Chicago could steal a march if he gets an uncontested lead and the others are slow to respond

WATCH

North Ocean's market moves given his mammoth break and gelding operation since last run

NOTE

Navinsky's early positioning as cheekpieces debut - needs to stay prominent rather than get outpaced

WATCH

Cracking Cloud finding racing room in straight given likely lack of early pace to help closers

NOTE

Wild Sapphire's settling given his prominent style and need to recapture debut form level

6:22 — MG Plant Sales Handicap

1m1½f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 13 runners

A Pretty Penny to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

A Pretty Penny and Accelereight led, as the map showed.

A Pretty Penny won at 7.50 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

A Pretty Penny

Prominent · 1

Dawson Street

Midfield · 7

AccelereightPoint CartwrightSurvivor's CodeHiltons PassSwift CharmBalance Of TradeCoul Dore

Hold Up · 4

MeridenGuildhall GraduateFemme BeautyTenacious

A Pretty Penny is the only confirmed front runner in this 13-runner field and should get an uncontested lead at a sustainable gallop. The majority of the field are hold-up horses including Tenacious, Survivor's Code, and Balance Of Trade, with only Dawson Street showing prominent tendencies to potentially sit second. This creates a pedestrian early pace with the field bunched up behind A Pretty Penny into the home straight. The lack of early pace pressure heavily favours front runners and prominent racers who can position close to the pace without expending energy.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Wins

45% probability

If A Pretty Penny gets soft fractions and isn't headed early in the straight

She gets first run on the field and the hold-up horses have too much ground to make up on the testing ground. The lack of pace pressure allows her to dictate throughout and kick clear when it matters.

A Pretty PennyDawson StreetTenaciousSurvivor's Code

Late Closer Strikes

30% probability

If the pace is genuinely slow and the field comes home in a bunch

The hold-up horses get the perfect scenario with everyone still in contention turning in, allowing the best stayer to come widest and latest. Tenacious or Balance Of Trade benefit most from this compressed finish.

TenaciousBalance Of TradeSurvivor's CodeA Pretty Penny

Prominent Runner Profits

15% probability

If Dawson Street or another horse challenges A Pretty Penny mid-race

The early leader gets softened up by sustained pressure, creating the ideal setup for a horse tracking the pace to pounce. Dawson Street is best positioned to exploit this scenario with his prominent style.

Dawson StreetAccelereightA Pretty PennyGuildhall Graduate

Maiden Breakthrough

10% probability

If the experienced handicappers fail to handle the step up in trip or testing conditions

One of the lightly raced types like Meriden or Point Cartwright finds significant improvement on handicap debut. The soft ground and extended distance could unlock untapped potential in these unexposed sorts.

MeridenPoint CartwrightGuildhall GraduateFemme Beauty

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

A Pretty Penny's market support will reveal if connections expect her to handle the step up to 1m1½f after looking held at shorter trips

WATCH

Tenacious traded at long odds despite solid last-start form - any market contraction suggests the cheekpieces addition is significant

NOTE

Guildhall Graduate and Dawson Street both return from lengthy absences, any market confidence indicates home work has been impressive

WATCH

The going description conflict between 'Good to Soft' and 'Yielding' throughout - actual conditions will impact the hold-up horses significantly

NOTE

Survivor's Code's blinkers application suggests connections are concerned about her focus after failing to back up her breakthrough win

6:52 — Burleigh Accountancy Group Handicap

1m1½f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 10 runners

Expound to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Hexagonal and Expound led, as the map showed.

Lough Leane won at 5.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Expound

Prominent · 2

Glen To GlenAnnie's Angel

Midfield · 4

HexagonalMedieval NightLa Tulipe NoireLough Leane

Hold Up · 3

Flying FortressMerlin The WizardLoingseoir

Expound is the sole confirmed front-runner and will control proceedings from the gate, setting a sustainable gallop without pressure in the early stages. The prominent horses Glen To Glen and Annie's Angel will track just behind, while the large contingent of hold-up horses including Flying Fortress, Merlin The Wizard, and Loingseoir will settle towards the rear. With only one natural pace-setter over this extended trip on yielding ground, the tempo will be measured early before quickening from the 3f pole. This race shape strongly favours the hold-up horses who can exploit the anticipated slow early fractions and strong late kick.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses dominate

55% probability

If Expound sets conservative fractions unchallenged through the middle stages

The pace will be too slow for the prominent runners to sustain their positions, allowing the patient hold-up brigade to unleash telling late runs. Flying Fortress and Merlin The Wizard are perfectly positioned to exploit this tactical scenario.

Flying FortressMerlin The WizardLoingseoirMedieval Night

Prominent pressure cooker

25% probability

If Glen To Glen or Annie's Angel press Expound from an early stage

The increased tempo will stretch the field and prevent the hold-up horses from closing effectively in the testing conditions. Glen To Glen's class edge becomes decisive in a strongly-run race.

Glen To GlenAnnie's AngelExpoundFlying Fortress

Expound controls wire-to-wire

12% probability

If Expound maintains his lead unchallenged and kicks clear approaching the final furlong

His course-and-distance winning experience and proven ability at this trip allows him to repel late challengers on ground that suits. The 2023 winner repeats with tactical superiority.

ExpoundGlen To GlenAnnie's AngelFlying Fortress

Chaos in closing stages

8% probability

If the early pace is pedestrian and multiple hold-up horses launch simultaneous late bids

A bunched field turning for home creates traffic problems and allows an unfancied hold-up horse to steal through on the rails. Lough Leane or Medieval Night could capitalize on the melee.

Lough LeaneMedieval NightHexagonalLa Tulipe Noire

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Flying Fortress could be overbet given his 216-day absence despite his fresh record

WATCH

Expound's ability to sustain his gallop will determine whether hold-up horses get their ideal race setup

NOTE

Glen To Glen's early positioning will indicate whether the prominent runners intend to pressure the leader

WATCH

Traffic problems likely in the straight with seven hold-up horses converging from the rear

NOTE

Medieval Night's adaptation to new stable methods after his Weld departure needs monitoring

7:22 — McGrath Limestone Works Handicap

1m1½f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 17 runners

Jawhary likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Tero d'Rosa and Smooth led; the map had Jawhary in front.

Tero d'Rosa won at 7.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Jawhary

Prominent · 4

She's IdealCuckaloo HillSmoothKartayaz

Midfield · 7

Tero d'RosaStarting MondayDeuteronomyPiatra NeamtEthelwulfCalamintTasmanian Girl

Hold Up · 5

Majestic KingSayidah New BayIn The MinusMiss AustralieThru The Gap

Jawhary is the sole natural front runner in this 17-runner field and should be allowed to dictate terms uncontested early. With prominent runners like She's Ideal, Kartayaz, Smooth and Cuckaloo Hill likely settling just behind, the pace will be sustainable rather than furious. The large field of hold-up horses including Majestic King, Starting Monday, and In The Minus will create a cavalry charge from the back as they try to navigate traffic on the turn. This race shape strongly favors prominent racers who can track the pace and kick clear before the hold-up brigade gets organized.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Tracker Wins

55% probability

If Jawhary sets steady fractions and prominent runners get first run

She's Ideal or similar prominent types can capitalize on good positioning to strike before the back markers unleash their finishing kicks. The sustainable pace allows these horses to have energy left for a decisive move approaching the final furlong.

She's IdealKartayazJawharySmooth

Hold-Up Hero Emerges

25% probability

If the pace becomes genuinely slow and the field bunches up

Majestic King or Starting Monday can time their run perfectly as the race becomes a sprint finish. Their superior class tells when given a proper test of acceleration over the final two furlongs.

Majestic KingStarting MondayIn The MinusSayidah New Bay

Front Runner Steals It

12% probability

If Jawhary gets easy lead fractions and kicks clear turning in

The 8-year-old's recent all-weather form translates to turf as he builds an unassailable advantage before tired legs can respond. His proven stamina over this trip becomes the decisive factor in a tactical affair.

JawharyShe's IdealMajestic King

Traffic Chaos Benefits Outsider

8% probability

If the large field creates a scramble and favorites get hampered

A horse like Calamint or Tero d'Rosa finds clear sailing while better-fancied runners get shuffled back or blocked for runs. The race falls apart tactically and an unexpected winner emerges from the mayhem.

CalamintTero d'RosaDeuteronomyEthelwulf

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Majestic King may not handle quick 3-day turnaround after Tuesday's easy win at Gowran

WATCH

Starting Monday faces nightmare draw in stall 17 with hold-up style in large field

NOTE

Jawhary's turf form is questionable as recent success has been confined to all-weather surfaces

WATCH

Multiple hold-up horses with fading tendencies could find 1m1½f trip stretching stamina

NOTE

Several runners returning from lengthy breaks including In The Minus (279 days) and Tasmanian Girl (321 days) may need the run

7:52 — BOYLE Sports Home Of The Early Payout Maiden

1m5f · Good To Soft · MDN · 10 runners

Battling Siki to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Oust led; the map had Battling Siki in front.

Trojan Fighter won at 2.62 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Battling Siki

Prominent · 4

Trojan FighterBallyadamOustMust Meet Cecil

Midfield · 2

ChairmanforlifeSir Trancealot

Hold Up · 3

NothingbutadreamGoodie GirlDiligo

Battling Siki will lead from the start with no other confirmed front-runners to challenge him early, likely setting a measured pace over the extended 1m5f trip. The congestion comes behind with Ballyadam, Must Meet Cecil, Oust and Trojan Fighter all wanting prominent positions, creating potential traffic problems approaching the home turn. This sustainable early tempo will allow the hold-up horses Goodie Girl, Diligo and Nothingbutadream to get into contention late. The race shape clearly favours prominent runners who can secure good positions early and hold-up horses who can pick off a moderate gallop, while midfield runners face the greatest tactical challenge.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Power Play

45% probability

If Ballyadam or Trojan Fighter track Battling Siki in the clear without getting shuffled back

The quality prominent runners avoid the traffic and kick clear from ideal positions, with their class telling over the lesser opposition late on. Battling Siki's honest gallop sets them up perfectly for a sustained finish.

BallyadamTrojan FighterBattling SikiOust

Hold-Up Heroes Strike

30% probability

If the early pace stays very modest and the field bunches up turning for home

Diligo and Goodie Girl get the perfect setup to unleash late runs, with their finishing kicks proving decisive over horses committed too early. The lack of early pressure allows closers to pick off tired leaders.

DiligoGoodie GirlBallyadamTrojan Fighter

Leader Lasts Home

15% probability

If Battling Siki gets an uncontested lead and the prominent pack get stuck in traffic

The front-runner builds an unassailable advantage while the fancied runners behind struggle for racing room in the straight. His honest gallop becomes winning tactics when the quality can't get clear runs.

Battling SikiOustMust Meet CecilBallyadam

Complete Traffic Chaos

10% probability

If the prominent congestion creates a complete scramble turning for home with multiple hard-luck stories

The race becomes a lottery with positioning crucial, potentially allowing an outsider like Chairmanforlife with Shane Foley's tactical nous to steal through on the rails. Class counts for little when no horse gets an ideal trip.

ChairmanforlifeSir TrancealotDiligoGoodie Girl

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Traffic problems 2-3 furlongs out when Ballyadam, Must Meet Cecil, Oust and Trojan Fighter all converge for prominent positions

WATCH

Battling Siki's stamina reserves on this yielding ground having weakened late on similar conditions last time out

NOTE

Diligo's jump from the stalls after being slow to break and wandering badly on his Gowran Park debut

WATCH

Goodie Girl's fitness levels returning from 160-day absence making her Flat debut at age eight

NOTE

Shane Foley's tactical ride on unfancied Chairmanforlife who could benefit if the pace collapses

8:22 — KOG Logistics Handicap

1m5f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 14 runners

Eben Zaabeel likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Carthusian led; the map had Eben Zaabeel in front.

Satono Chevalier won at 26.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Eben Zaabeel

Prominent · 3

Granville StreetSteps In The SandMr Rango

Midfield · 6

SuperficialSatono ChevalierJustenziaLiberateGood Onya MateMigdam

Hold Up · 4

Pillar Of HopeAmplitudeAvondaleCarthusian

Eben Zaabeel is the only confirmed front runner and will face no early pressure, allowing him to dictate a comfortable tempo through the early stages. Granville Street and Steps In The Sand may sit prominently but are unlikely to challenge for the lead, while Mr Rango could press if needed. The large field of 14 runners includes many hold-up horses who will rely on the pace scenario unfolding favorably. This setup strongly favors horses that can sit off the pace and deliver late kicks, as the uncontested leader creates an ideal target for closers to aim at.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Closers' Paradise

55% probability

If Eben Zaabeel sets a steady tempo without pressure and the field remains bunched

The pace will be honest but not demanding, setting up perfectly for the numerous hold-up horses to unleash finishing kicks. Late-running types like Carthusian, Satono Chevalier, and Amplitude will have optimal conditions to showcase their turn of foot.

CarthusianSatono ChevalierAmplitudePillar Of Hope

Honest Gallop Suits

25% probability

If the pace becomes genuinely testing with multiple horses tracking closer to Eben Zaabeel

A more demanding gallop will stretch the field and favor horses with stamina and tactical speed over pure finishing kicks. This scenario benefits those who can travel well in midfield and maintain their effort to the line.

Steps In The SandJustenziaSuperficialAvondale

Leader Dominates Soft

12% probability

If the yielding ground plays to Eben Zaabeel's advantage and he quickens clear turning in

The combination of uncontested lead and testing ground could allow the front runner to build an unassailable advantage. Horses with proven soft ground form become crucial as others struggle with the conditions.

Eben ZaabeelMr RangoSteps In The SandMigdam

Sprint Finish Surprise

8% probability

If the race becomes tactical early with multiple horses content to sit and the pace collapses

A slowly-run race would turn into a pure sprint finish where early position becomes crucial and stamina counts for little. Prominent runners and those with gate speed would hold significant advantages over pure stayers.

Granville StreetSuperficialMr RangoGood Onya Mate

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Carthusian making handicap debut could be well-handicapped given solid maiden form and Mrs Harrington's patient approach

WATCH

Steps In The Sand returning from 226-day break may need the run despite strong form sequence last summer

NOTE

Eben Zaabeel wearing hood for first time suggests connections trying to sharpen up the only pace angle

NOTE

Watch for market moves on Amplitude who has ability but needs to bounce back from recent poor effort

WATCH

Good Oyna Mate faces significant step up in class making handicap debut with minimal recent form to assess

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 8 May 2026.

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