Presentandcounting led; the map had My Noble Lord in front.
Country Park won at 4.20 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
0 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
My Noble Lord
Prominent · 1
Lermoos Legend
Midfield · 1
Le Gentleman
Hold Up · 2
PresentandcountingCountry Park
My Noble Lord is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with Lermoos Legend and Le Gentleman both natural prominent types, there is more pace-seeking energy in this five-runner field than positions allow — My Noble Lord is likeliest to secure the lead, with Lermoos Legend and Le Gentleman likely to be shuffled back slightly from their natural roles. The field holds more front-running and prominent types than can all get their position; My Noble Lord holds the clearest claim to the front, Lermoos Legend the next best, while Le Gentleman is the most likely to be displaced into an unnatural midfield berth. On Good ground over 2m4½f at Bangor, a single controlled leader sets a measured, sustainable gallop — no pressure from rivals keen to dominate, no scrambling for position. This shape classically favours hold-up horses with the ability to close from off the pace in the straight, meaning Presentandcounting and Country Park, both genuine hold-up types with strong Good-ground form, are structurally best placed to capitalise.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Steady Lead, Late Closers
70% probability
If My Noble Lord dictates an uncontested, controlled pace and hold-up runners have energy to pick off the leaders from two out.
If My Noble Lord dictates an uncontested, controlled pace and hold-up runners have energy to pick off the leaders from two out.
My Noble Lord sets the tempo entirely alone — if his early sectionals are slow, watch for Country Park and Presentandcounting being caught too far back to launch a meaningful challenge.
WATCH
Le Gentleman's redistribution to midfield means Jack Tudor will need to make a decision early about whether to chase My Noble Lord or accept an unnatural hold-up role — an awkward tactical compromise for a horse that wins from the front.
WATCH
Presentandcounting has not run for 51 days; fitness over a testing 2m4½f chase trip on Good ground is the key fitness watch-point for this hold-up type who needs to be at peak sharpness to close.
NOTE
Lermoos Legend is listed as a non-runner — if a late declaration is confirmed, the entire pace dynamic shifts as a second prominent type enters to press My Noble Lord, increasing the chance of a contested gallop (Scenario C).
6:33 — Wrexham Evening Handicap Chase
3m · Good · HCAP · 10 runners
Slaney Opera likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Est Illic led; the map had Slaney Opera in front.
Glenmalure Flyer won at 4.33 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up.
0 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Slaney Opera is the lone confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine challenger for the lead, will dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop from the front over this 3m trip on Good ground at Bangor. Radharc Na Slaine is the only other prominent-style runner and may push forward to track closely, but neither horse is likely to inject significant early pressure, meaning the pace will be steady and the field will bunch behind them through the early stages. The field holds considerably more hold-up types than the race shape can accommodate at the rear — Friends Don't Ask, Est Illic, Henry Box Brown, Rockvale, and Shuile Warrior are all genuine come-from-behind horses who will be squeezed into a congested midfield pack rather than finding their natural deep position. With a lone front-runner setting a measured tempo over a staying trip on a fair surface, this race shape strongly favours patient, well-positioned horses who can travel into the race from the prominent-to-midfield group and sustain their effort up the straight — runners able to get a clear run from second or third will be advantaged over those stuck in traffic further back.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Slaney Opera Dictates Unchallenged
58% probability
If Slaney Opera is allowed to coast in front at a controlled pace with Radharc Na Slaine tracking and no horse making a sustained bid to close until the final turn.
If Slaney Opera is allowed to coast in front at a controlled pace with Radharc Na Slaine tracking and no horse making a sustained bid to close until the final turn.
Slaney OperaRadharc Na SlaineFriends Don't AskEst Illic
B
Prominent Tracker Swoops Late
22% probability
If the pace is genuinely steady enough that a horse sitting second or third off the leader travels through the race on the bridle and produces a decisive late challenge.
If the pace is genuinely steady enough that a horse sitting second or third off the leader travels through the race on the bridle and produces a decisive late challenge.
Radharc Na SlaineFriends Don't AskEst IllicRockvale
C
Hold-Up Horse Finds Late Gap
12% probability
If the pace is genuinely slow enough that the rear group gets a tow into the race and a clear run materialises for a finisher in the home straight.
If the pace is genuinely slow enough that the rear group gets a tow into the race and a clear run materialises for a finisher in the home straight.
Est IllicHenry Box BrownRockvaleDazzlelikethis
D
Pace Collapse, Chaos Finish
8% probability
If Slaney Opera sets a pace that proves too fast for the conditions or falls at a fence, causing the race to open up for a horse that has been travelling kindly in the pack.
If Slaney Opera sets a pace that proves too fast for the conditions or falls at a fence, causing the race to open up for a horse that has been travelling kindly in the pack.
Radharc Na SlaineRockvaleVinnie O'NeilDazzlelikethis
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch Slaney Opera's jumping under Kielan Woods — if it makes a significant error early, the race opens up dramatically given there is no other confirmed front-runner to take over.
WATCH
Radharc Na Slaine (Conor Ring) is the horse most likely to challenge Slaney Opera for the lead or sit a close second; if it tracks smoothly through the early stages on Good ground, its 13/15 sim-going record makes it a significant threat in the straight.
WATCH
The cluster of redistributed hold-up horses (Friends Don't Ask, Est Illic, Henry Box Brown, Rockvale, Shuile Warrior) will create traffic congestion in the midfield — watch for horses finding themselves trapped on the rail at the top of the home straight with nowhere to go.
NOTE
Henry Box Brown (Ellis Collier, 5lb claimer) unseated last time out — monitor its jumping at the early fences; a horse returning from a fall with a less experienced pilot at a jumping track is a risk factor for the whole field behind it.
NOTE
Glenmalure Flyer returns from 570 days off under Harry Skelton — even for a top jump jockey, a horse absent that long over 3m Good ground with a known finishing fade is a significant stamina query from the top of the straight onwards.
7:08 — Wrexham Lager Mares' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)
2m3½f · Good · CLS4 · 7 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
7:43 — Bangor-On-Dee Handicap Hurdle
2m3½f · Good · HCAP · 4 runners
Supreme Yeats likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Il Va De Soi led; the map had Supreme Yeats in front.
Supreme Yeats won at 7.50 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Supreme Yeats
Prominent · 1
Crystal Glance
Midfield · 1
Summergrounds
Hold Up · 1
Il Va De Soi
Supreme Yeats is the lone confirmed front-runner here and, with only four runners on Good ground over 2m3½f, he is almost certain to dictate from the front without any genuine pressure from the field. Crystal Glance is a prominent-going type who will likely track Supreme Yeats in second, while Summergrounds — a natural front-runner redistributed to midfield on the map because the field holds more prominent types than the race shape can accommodate — is unlikely to secure that berth and will be shuffled further back than ideal. Il Va De Soi, a genuine hold-up horse, will settle at the rear and rely on a well-judged ride from Theo Gillard to arrive late. The absence of a pace duel, coupled with Good ground and a small field, strongly favours horses capable of travelling prominently and switching off, with stamina and jump accuracy coming to the fore in the final half-mile — the profile of a prominent racer with sound jumping rather than a closer waiting on others to fold.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Supreme Yeats Controls Cleanly
70% probability
If Supreme Yeats bowls along at a true but sustainable gallop and jumps accurately throughout, pinching a decisive advantage by the home turn.
If Supreme Yeats bowls along at a true but sustainable gallop and jumps accurately throughout, pinching a decisive advantage by the home turn.
Supreme YeatsCrystal GlanceIl Va De SoiSummergrounds
B
Crystal Glance Pounces Late
15% probability
If Supreme Yeats jumps untidily or fades inside the final two hurdles, allowing Crystal Glance to collar him off a prominent pitch.
If Supreme Yeats jumps untidily or fades inside the final two hurdles, allowing Crystal Glance to collar him off a prominent pitch.
Crystal GlanceSupreme YeatsIl Va De SoiSummergrounds
C
Il Va De Soi Swoops Late
10% probability
If the early pace is strong enough to string the field out and Il Va De Soi produces a sustained run from the rear on ground that fully suits.
If the early pace is strong enough to string the field out and Il Va De Soi produces a sustained run from the rear on ground that fully suits.
Il Va De SoiCrystal GlanceSupreme YeatsSummergrounds
D
Summergrounds Bounces Back
5% probability
If the field crawls and Summergrounds is allowed to find a prominent position despite the redistribution and his 70-day absence.
If the field crawls and Summergrounds is allowed to find a prominent position despite the redistribution and his 70-day absence.
SummergroundsCrystal GlanceIl Va De SoiSupreme Yeats
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Supreme Yeats — watch his jumping closely throughout; if he makes a significant error at any of the hurdles in the back straight it could instantly change the dynamic of this otherwise processional race shape.
WATCH
Summergrounds — his 70-day absence combined with a switch to Good ground (all recent form on Soft) means fitness and going suitability are genuine questions; a flat or laboured jump early would confirm he is not at his best.
WATCH
Il Va De Soi — monitor in-running position; if the tempo is modest and he is more than five lengths off the pace after halfway, the hold-up tactics may be impossible to make pay in a four-runner field.
NOTE
Crystal Glance — watch whether Jack Tudor pushes him to go with Supreme Yeats immediately or settles just behind; the former risks a pace battle that suits the front-runner, the latter is the smarter tactical play given Good ground and a small field.
8:18 — Rachel Jones Memorial Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)
2m½f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners
Centurion's Sister likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Into Battle led; the map had Centurion's Sister in front.
Into Battle won at 3.50 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
0 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Centurion's Sister
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 2
American EmpirePrettylady
Hold Up · 2
Into BattleEvening Tess
Centurion's Sister is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine rivals for the lead in a five-runner field, Danny McMenamin can dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop from the front over this 2m½f trip on good ground. That uncontested lead creates a classic set-pace scenario where Centurion's Sister will travel comfortably throughout, facing no early pressure and dictating the fractions through the Bangor bends. The three true hold-up horses — Into Battle, American Empire, and Prettylady — will track from behind, but because the map holds more hold-up types than the rear can accommodate, American Empire and Prettylady have been pushed into midfield positions that are not truly their natural habitat, meaning their style-fit is compromised. This race shape — a single, uncontested front-runner controlling a modest tempo — squarely favours hold-up horses with the class and finishing kick to reel in the leader late, with Evening Tess and Into Battle best placed to exploit that profile on going they handle well.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Lead, Closers Strike
68% probability
If Centurion's Sister bowls along uncontested and the strong-finishing hold-up types get a clear run from the second-last.
If Centurion's Sister bowls along uncontested and the strong-finishing hold-up types get a clear run from the second-last.
If American Empire or Prettylady settle better than expected in their redistributed midfield slots and produce a sustained run from three out.
If American Empire or Prettylady settle better than expected in their redistributed midfield slots and produce a sustained run from three out.
American EmpirePrettyladyInto BattleCenturion's Sister
D
Chaos — Jumping Errors
6% probability
If one or more runners makes significant jumping errors that reshuffle the field and open up ground for a horse tracking wide or travelling strongly.
If one or more runners makes significant jumping errors that reshuffle the field and open up ground for a horse tracking wide or travelling strongly.
Evening TessInto BattleAmerican EmpirePrettylady
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Centurion's Sister settles uncontested at the front — watch whether Danny McMenamin tries to steal the race by injecting pace from three out, which could catch the hold-up horses flat-footed.
WATCH
American Empire and Prettylady are being asked to race in midfield rather than their natural rear positions — watch for unsettled behaviour early or a failure to travel, which would effectively remove them from contention before the race is half-run.
WATCH
Into Battle has had 42 days off and could need the run — watch how sharply Robert Dunne asks him to quicken from the second-last, as a slightly ring-rusty performance could see him fail to close the gap in time.
NOTE
Evening Tess arrives on the back of a recent win and the Skelton yard is in strong form (T14: 13/23) — watch her jumping throughout, as a clean round from a horse of her profile in this small field could make the result straightforward if the tempo is right.
NOTE
With only five runners on good ground at Bangor, the field is likely to bunch in the back straight — watch for traffic issues developing approaching the home turn, particularly around the redistributed midfield runners who may not get the cleanest of passages.
8:53 — Tom Jones Live At Chester Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle
2m7f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners
Innisfree Lass likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Rock Hurley led; the map had Innisfree Lass in front.
Rock Hurley won at 3.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield.
2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Innisfree Lass is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 2m7f conditional jockeys' handicap hurdle and, with no rival likely to press her hard, she should control a steady, sustainable gallop from the front over this stamina-testing trip on good ground at Bangor. The field is loaded with hold-up types — Rock Hurley, Golden Glance, Jay Bee Whiskey, and The Kings Soldier are all genuine closers who have been redistributed to midfield on the map simply because there is no room to show them all at the rear — meaning the true nature of this race is a lone leader followed by a pack of horses racing closer than they would prefer. With Innisfree Lass setting a controlled tempo and no credible prominent rival to push her wide or quicken the pace, the race will likely be run at a measured gallop that suits a front-runner who stays well, before the chasing pack mounts a challenge from two out. This race shape strongly favours Innisfree Lass if she can convert her natural lead, but a sustained-run, stamina-based finish from two out could also play into the hands of any closer who travels fluently in the pack — with the critical caveat that the redistributed hold-up horses will be racing out of their most comfortable position, which undermines their chance in a shape that depends on a true late run from off the pace.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Innisfree Lass Controls
58% probability
If Innisfree Lass bowls along at a comfortable clip and no rival forces a test of pace early.
If Innisfree Lass bowls along at a comfortable clip and no rival forces a test of pace early.
If several of the redistributed hold-up horses push forward early, creating an uncharacteristically pressured and messy pace scenario.
If several of the redistributed hold-up horses push forward early, creating an uncharacteristically pressured and messy pace scenario.
Golden GlanceRoxboro RiverJay Bee WhiskeyRock Hurley
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Innisfree Lass has run just once on good ground in her last 15 starts for zero wins or places — if she struggles to handle the faster surface her solo-lead advantage could evaporate entirely, dramatically opening the race.
WATCH
With five genuinely redistibuted hold-up types (Rock Hurley, Golden Glance, Jay Bee Whiskey, The Kings Soldier, plus Collingham and Roxboro River), watch the early stages closely — if several push forward against their nature, the first-circuit gallop could become far more pressured than the pace map suggests.
WATCH
Jay Bee Whiskey's 584-day absence and mid-race pulled-up run make him a significant safety consideration in a conditional jockeys' hurdle — watch for erratic jumping or early signs of distress that could compromise horses tracking him.
NOTE
Athena's Dream's 8lb claim for Megan Bevan is the largest weight relief in the race and brings her into a competitive weight bracket at 145lbs — if she travels fluently in midfield she could emerge as a value factor in the straight even without a strong going or trip profile.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.