Archive›Bangor-on-Dee · 4 September 2026

Bangor-on-Dee

4 September 2026 · 7 races

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1:40 — North Wales Business Day Novices' Hurdle Race (gbb Race)

2m3½f · Good · NOV · 5 runners

Hoe Joly Smoke likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Hoe Joly Smoke led, as the map showed.

Hoe Joly Smoke won at 2.62 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Hoe Joly Smoke

Prominent · 1

Iamyouare

Midfield · 1

Sovereignlightcafe

Hold Up · 2

Whinny HoustonThat Old Chestnut

Hoe Joly Smoke is the sole confirmed front-runner in this five-runner novice hurdle and, with no meaningful pressure anticipated, will dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop throughout the 2m3½f trip on Good ground at Bangor. Iamyouare, a prominent-racing type, will look to track closely and will be the most likely threat to Hoe Joly Smoke's early supremacy, keeping tabs from second or third. The three hold-up horses — Sovereignlightcafe, That Old Chestnut, and Whinny Houston — are all tagged with finishing concerns or redistribution caveats, meaning genuine sustained late challenges from the rear are unlikely to materialise cleanly. This race shape strongly favours a prominent-to-lead profile: a controlled pace set by Hoe Joly Smoke that rewards horses travelling well in the first two or three, with limited genuine closer ammunition behind. The field holds more hold-up types than can meaningfully deliver from the rear — Sovereignlightcafe is a true hold-up horse mapped to midfield due to field composition, and is unlikely to secure a position that suits its natural style.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hoe Joly Smoke Controls

72% probability

If Hoe Joly Smoke bowls along at a comfortable tempo unchallenged and Iamyouare cannot sustain pressure over the final two hurdles.

Hoe Joly Smoke settles in front under Harry Skelton, sets a fair but unhurried pace, and the Dan Skelton yard's superior jumping experience at this trip proves decisive in a race run to suit the leader. Iamyouare is best-placed to give chase but may lack the class ceiling to reel in a horse in control of its own destiny at Good ground.

Hoe Joly SmokeIamyouareThat Old ChestnutSovereignlightcafe

Prominent War Swamps Leader

14% probability

If Iamyouare presses Hoe Joly Smoke aggressively from the outset, creating a faster-than-expected tempo that drains both.

A genuine battle up front would compromise Hoe Joly Smoke's stamina reserves and open the door for a fast-finishing hold-up horse, though the closers in this field carry significant question marks about their ability to deliver in that role. Iamyouare, who has the form, course-distance profile, and amateur jockey confidence, could still emerge as the dominant force if the front two burn each other off.

IamyouareThat Old ChestnutSovereignlightcafeHoe Joly Smoke

Hold-Up Horse Pounces Late

9% probability

If the pace is genuinely strong throughout and Sovereignlightcafe or That Old Chestnut finds a clear run to pick up the pieces.

This scenario requires a faster-run race than the pace map projects and genuine staying power from horses that carry fade warnings and redistribution caveats — both significant obstacles to probability. Sovereignlightcafe has not run for 251 days and That Old Chestnut's limited Good-ground form makes this a low-confidence outcome.

SovereignlightcafeThat Old ChestnutIamyouareWhinny Houston

Race Falls Apart At Finish

5% probability

If jumping errors or fatigue cause the front two to capitulate in the closing stages, handing the race to a surviving stayer.

Whinny Houston and That Old Chestnut have poor recent records and fading profiles, but in a race that disintegrates late they could inherit a placing through attrition rather than merit. This scenario demands multiple mishaps and is the least likely given the quality and experience of Hoe Joly Smoke and Skelton's record at keeping horses competitive.

Whinny HoustonThat Old ChestnutIamyouareSovereignlightcafe

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch whether Iamyouare's prominent style puts immediate pressure on Hoe Joly Smoke at the start — if Mr Harry Brown commits hard from flag-fall, the tempo could rise sharply and undermine the favourite's control.

WATCH

Sovereignlightcafe returns after 251 days off and is a natural hold-up horse awkwardly placed by field composition — monitor whether Patrick Wadge attempts to push forward rather than drop to the rear, as that tactical friction could disrupt early order.

WATCH

Both That Old Chestnut and Whinny Houston carry confirmed fade warnings — if either makes a significant move between the third-last and second-last hurdle without sustaining it, they could cause interference for horses travelling behind them.

NOTE

Hoe Joly Smoke runs in a first-time tongue-tie — watch its early jumping and whether the headgear change produces noticeably sharper or more erratic jumping behaviour in the opening mile.

2:15 — Genesis Wealth Management Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase

2m4½f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Soldier In Mayo to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Rockvale led; the map had Soldier In Mayo in front.

Delgany Second Now won at 1.44 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Soldier In Mayo

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 5

MoonlightintheparkRule Me InHiero SportDelgany Second NowRockvale

Hold Up · 2

My Bobby's LassBarry Fife

Soldier In Mayo is the sole confirmed front-runner in this eight-runner novices' handicap chase and, with no genuine rival to press him from the outset, he is expected to bowl along at a controlled, measured gallop over 2m4½f on good ground at Bangor. The field is unusually loaded with hold-up types — Moonlightinthepark, Rule Me In, Hiero Sport, Rockvale, and Delgany Second Now all prefer to race from the rear, meaning the mid-to-late stages will feature a mass of horses making their move simultaneously rather than any sustained pressure on the leader through the early and middle sections. My Bobby's Lass and Barry Fife will track from off the pace but neither is likely to hustle Soldier In Mayo into an injudicious gallop. This race shape strongly favours the lone front-runner and any horse capable of travelling prominently without getting into a fight for position — sustainable fractions on good ground over this trip at Bangor suit a relaxed, well-placed jumper who can dictate tempo and quicken away from the last. The field holds materially more hold-up horses than can all settle into their natural rear-of-field position; of those redistributed, Delgany Second Now (Harry Skelton, in-form Skelton yard, recent consecutive wins) and Hiero Sport are the most likely to forge closer than their natural style suggests.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Soldier In Mayo Dictates

58% probability

If Soldier In Mayo sets an uncontested, controlled gallop and the hold-up pack fail to reel him in from the last fence.

Soldier In Mayo bowls along in front on a comfortable lead, jumps fluently, and with no rival to press him through the middle stages he dictates every yard of the contest; on good ground over this trip his jumping efficiency becomes a weapon rather than a liability.

Soldier In MayoDelgany Second NowMy Bobby's LassHiero Sport

Prominent Stalker Pounces

22% probability

If a horse tracking Soldier In Mayo in second or third looms alongside at the second-last and outstays him up the run-in.

My Bobby's Lass or Delgany Second Now, travelling smoothly just off the pace, presses the leader from three out and the sustained challenge breaks Soldier In Mayo's rhythm late; the winner here is one who travels with cover and can produce a clean jump at the last.

My Bobby's LassDelgany Second NowHiero SportSoldier In Mayo

Hold-Up Finisher Collects

13% probability

If the gallop is fast enough to soften the principals and a late-running hold-up horse finishes strongest from off the pace.

Hiero Sport or Rule Me In, given a patient ride and settling into their natural rhythm despite the crowded field, launch a sustained run from the final mile; this scenario requires the front end to have gone hard enough to come back — unlikely but possible on good ground with a solo front-runner setting his own fractions.

Hiero SportRule Me InMoonlightintheparkRockvale

Attrition And Errors

7% probability

If the jumping test produces casualties, unseaters, or significant errors that reshuffle the race entirely in the final mile.

In a novice chasing context with Barry Fife's jumping record (pulled-up recently) and several inexperienced fencers in the pack, errors at key fences could open the door to whoever survives cleanest; the winner under this scenario is the most reliable jumper left standing rather than the fastest finisher.

Barry FifeRockvaleMoonlightintheparkRule Me In

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Soldier In Mayo's jumping must be monitored from the first fence — if he makes early errors he surrenders the positional advantage that makes him dangerous and the race shape collapses entirely.

WATCH

Delgany Second Now ran just seven days ago; watch the pre-race ring to assess freshness, as a quick turnaround for a four-year-old novice chaser over 2m4½f on a track new to him carries physical risk despite his form.

WATCH

Barry Fife's jumping record includes a recent pull-up and his form figures in similar company are inconsistent — watch him at the fences in the back straight where Bangor's chase track can expose novice errors.

NOTE

The mass of hold-up horses (five runners tagged as redistributed) means the final bend could be congested as they all simultaneously ask for their effort — watch for traffic problems between the last two fences that could benefit whoever is out in front.

NOTE

My Bobby's Lass returns from 436 days off; watch her in the preliminary stages and early in the race for any sign she has retained condition — if she travels sweetly through the first mile her good-ground record makes her a significant threat late.

2:50 — Goffs Yorton Sale 10th September Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)

3m · Good · HCAP · 6 runners

Presentandcounting to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Presentandcounting led, as the map showed.

Tamarind Bay won at 2.25 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Presentandcounting

Prominent · 2

Tamarind BayRegal Renaissance

Midfield · 1

Thickthorn Tom

Hold Up · 2

Sure TouchHomme Public

Presentandcounting is the sole confirmed front-runner in this six-runner field and, with no other horse likely to press him hard from the outset, he should be able to control tempo from the front over the full 3m at Bangor on good ground. Tamarind Bay and Regal Renaissance are the prominent types most likely to track him closely from early on, forming a compact lead group that sets a manageable, rhythm-based gallop rather than a searching test. Behind them, Sure Touch and Homme Public will look to travel in rear and produce their efforts late, while Thickthorn Tom — a genuine hold-up horse redistributed to mapped midfield — is unlikely to find the same position at the back that his form demands, which tempers his chance in a shape that suits closers. The tactical verdict is clear: with a single honest pace-setter controlling an uncontested gallop on a fair surface, this race shape most strongly favours prominent racers who can travel within themselves behind Presentandcounting and produce a fluent jumping challenge from two out, rewarding Tamarind Bay and Regal Renaissance above the true hold-up types. The field holds more hold-up horses than the map can place at the rear, and Thickthorn Tom is the one most likely to find himself racing out of his natural role.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Types Dominate

70% probability

If Presentandcounting leads at a controlled gallop and the prominent duo of Tamarind Bay and Regal Renaissance track smoothly throughout.

Presentandcounting sets an uncontested pace that flatters horses travelling on his heels, and with no pressure forcing a sprint, those positioned just off the lead have the energy reserves to assert from the second-last fence; good-ground form for both protagonists adds confidence.

Tamarind BayRegal RenaissancePresentandcountingSure Touch

Front Runner Stays On

14% probability

If Presentandcounting dictates an unusually slow tempo, controls every fence cleanly and simply outstays the field up the straight.

At 12 years old Presentandcounting carries the lowest weight and has an outstanding record of placing in similar good-ground chases, and a dawdle that nullifies the closers' finishing kicks plays directly into his ability to jump and gallop relentlessly; only a dramatic stamina collapse in the final half-mile would stop him.

PresentandcountingTamarind BayRegal RenaissanceSure Touch

Hold-Up Finisher Pounces

10% probability

If the pace is fast enough to string out the field and the closers have clear daylight to produce a late challenge.

Sure Touch has a winning run over good ground at a similar trip and brings hold-up credentials, while Homme Public has placed at three miles on good before; however both must find more than their recent form suggests and depend on a stronger gallop than one lone pace-setter is likely to create.

Sure TouchHomme PublicTamarind BayRegal Renaissance

Chaos And Attrition

6% probability

If jumping errors or a rough-and-tumble race of fallers reduces the field and creates a lottery finish.

With six runners over 3m of fences, any jumping mishap at a crucial point — particularly in the lead group — could hand the initiative to whoever survives intact; Thickthorn Tom, despite likely racing out of his natural hold-up role, has raw winning form and the Skelton yard's recent 14-day strike rate could see him capitalise on a depleted field.

Thickthorn TomSure TouchHomme PublicPresentandcounting

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Thickthorn Tom has won five of his last six but is a genuine hold-up horse likely to be forced into a midfield position that does not suit — watch whether Harry Skelton can find enough cover or whether the horse gets competitive and races too freely.

WATCH

Presentandcounting's control of tempo is the pivot of the entire race: if he sets a very slow gallop the closers (Sure Touch, Homme Public) may never get into it — watch the pace from the first fence to judge whether the hold-up horses are viable.

WATCH

Regal Renaissance has a very strong recent record but jumps up in trip to 3m today for the first time in this sequence — watch his jumping in the final mile to see if stamina becomes an issue.

NOTE

Tamarind Bay ran only 20 days ago and carries the second-highest weight in the field at 163lbs; monitor his jumping fluency early to gauge whether fatigue or the burden affects his prominent racing style in the closing stages.

NOTE

The going report confirms Good across all seven races at Bangor today — conditions are genuinely consistent, so any runner whose trainer entered specifically for this surface (particularly Presentandcounting's 14/15 good-ground record) should be taken at face value.

3:25 — Du Construction Handicap Hurdle Race

2m7f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Ernest Gray likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Roger Pol led; the map had Ernest Gray in front.

Ernest Gray won at 3.25 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Ernest Gray

Prominent · 1

Kiwi de Cotte

Midfield · 1

Speed Davis

Hold Up · 2

Roger PolSecret Trix

Ernest Gray is the confirmed front-runner here and, with only Kiwi de Cotte as a genuine prominent challenger, he faces no serious early pressure and should be permitted to set a comfortable, controlled gallop throughout. Kiwi de Cotte (Harry Skelton) will track closely in second, creating a compact two-horse lead group that dictates a steady, sustainable tempo over this 2m7f trip on good ground. The hold-up trio of Roger Pol, Secret Trix, and Speed Davis will be strung out behind, though Speed Davis — a true hold-up type redistributed to midfield on the map — is unlikely to find the true rear position his style demands, meaning the closers' end of the field is less straightforward than it appears. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers who travel into an honest gallop and quicken off it, rather than late finishers asked to make up ground against a front end that will never be overhauled at a sprint finish in a small field.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Front Sets Up Prominents

71% probability

If Ernest Gray dictates a measured gallop and Kiwi de Cotte tracks him closely throughout, the race is run entirely to suit horses who travel prominently.

Ernest Gray leads at his own pace with Kiwi de Cotte poised just off his quarters, and the combination of good ground and a manageable tempo means both are travelling well into the straight; the hold-up horses are asked a question too late over this trip.

Ernest GrayKiwi de CotteRoger PolSecret Trix

Hold-Up Horses Pounce Late

14% probability

If the front pair push along hard enough to compromise each other and the pace becomes genuinely strong, the closers get a proper target to hunt down.

Roger Pol and Secret Trix, both proven on good ground and consistent at this sort of trip, would be the primary beneficiaries of a stronger-than-expected gallop that finds out the leaders inside the final two flights; their superior late reserves become a genuine weapon.

Roger PolSecret TrixSpeed DavisErnest Gray

Skelton Jockey Move Lands

11% probability

If Harry Skelton times Kiwi de Cotte's challenge to perfection and Ernest Gray fades from the front in the closing stages.

Kiwi de Cotte's strong recent form — four runs on good ground all producing respectable finishes including two wins — combined with the Skelton team's proven tactical acumen could see him sweep past a tiring leader in the straight; the 6-year-old's youth and freshness after only 20 days since his last run could prove decisive.

Kiwi de CotteErnest GrayRoger PolSecret Trix

Messy Race, Outsider Strikes

4% probability

If the race falls apart through a tactical muddle, jumping errors, or a significant incident that scrambles the expected running order.

Speed Davis, though a genuine hold-up type who will struggle to find his natural position in this small field, carries form figures of 1-1 within the last year and could theoretically capitalise on a chaotic scenario; the low-mileage field of just five runners makes a clean race likely, keeping this scenario at the margins.

Speed DavisRoger PolSecret TrixKiwi de Cotte

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Ernest Gray has dominated the early pace map but his recent form figures (166-42) suggest he gets caught close home — watch whether Tom Cannon allows him to coast or is forced to up the tempo to hold Kiwi de Cotte off entering the straight.

WATCH

Kiwi de Cotte shaped with promise last time but has pulled up once (the P in his form) and is a young horse over 2m7f for the first time — watch his jumping under Harry Skelton, particularly if he is keen early tracking the leader.

WATCH

Speed Davis is physically a hold-up horse racing in a small field at a likely steady pace, which means he may find himself shuffled wider and closer to the pace than suits him — watch his position at the halfway point as a clue to whether he can get competitive.

NOTE

Roger Pol has a strong place record on good ground but has not won since finishing first at 24f on good; the combination of his age (8), hold-up style, and the likely steady tempo means watch whether Isabelle Ryder (5lb claimer) attempts to push forward earlier than usual to compensate.

NOTE

Secret Trix's tongue strap is back on after consistent placed efforts — if the gallop is genuinely strong rather than crawling, her late runs become viable; she is the one hold-up horse whose form consistency gives her a realistic chance if the pace scenario shifts.

4:00 — Kinsey Anniversary Mares' Handicap Hurdle Race

2m½f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners

Northern Rose likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Jammy Jay led; the map had Northern Rose in front.

Prettylady won at 17.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Northern Rose

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 3

I Heard A RumourDaring To DreamMiss Fedora

Hold Up · 2

Jammy JayPrettylady

Northern Rose is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine challenger disputing the lead, she will set a sustainable, controlled gallop from the outset on good ground at Bangor. The pace is unlikely to be fierce — a single front-runner allowed to bowl along unchallenged typically produces a moderate tempo that suits horses who can sit close to the action rather than those asking questions from the back. Jammy Jay, Prettylady, I Heard A Rumour, Daring To Dream, and Miss Fedora are all natural hold-up or deep hold-up types, meaning a small, contained field of six will see several of them forced closer to the pace than they would ideally choose. This race shape — one uncontested leader, modest gallop, compact field — heavily favours prominent and close-tracking profiles who can exploit the steady tempo and attack from a handy position, rather than genuine closers who need a searching pace to generate momentum from the rear.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Northern Rose Controls Cleanly

68% probability

If Northern Rose is allowed to dictate an uncontested lead at a comfortable clip and the field does not collectively quicken on her.

Northern Rose bowls along in front, the moderate gallop keeps the race falsely run and she is never seriously pressured, turning for home with a decisive advantage; her recent course form on good going and her headgear (tongue-tie/pull-through) suggest she handles these conditions well and her prominent style is perfectly suited to this shape.

Northern RosePrettyladyJammy JayI Heard A Rumour

Close Trackers Pounce

18% probability

If the pace is just honest enough for a horse tracking in second or third to produce a winning late surge past Northern Rose.

A runner sitting a length or two off Northern Rose's shoulder conserves energy through a steady gallop before producing a decisive jump at the last hurdle and pulling clear on the run-in; Prettylady, with her two recent wins and positive course form on good ground, is the most naturally equipped to execute this move from a handy position.

PrettyladyJammy JayNorthern RoseI Heard A Rumour

Hold-Up Horse Gets Lucky Gap

9% probability

If the pace collapses late and a hold-up horse finds an unobstructed run to the line from the back.

The moderate tempo means hold-up types carry too much ground to make up, but if Northern Rose ties up dramatically on the run-in a closer could appear late; Jammy Jay has the highest OR in the field and her good-going form (two places from three runs on good) gives her the best chance of capitalising if a gap appears.

Jammy JayI Heard A RumourPrettyladyDaring To Dream

Pace Collapses, Field Bunches

5% probability

If Northern Rose sets an unusually slow tempo that produces a sprint finish where fitness and class separate the field.

A truly dawdling gallop compresses the field entirely, turning the race into a flat-out dash from two out; in this shape OR and fitness of the freshest, classiest runner matters most, and Jammy Jay's higher rating edges an argument though no runner is ideally profiled for a pure sprint test.

Jammy JayPrettyladyNorthern RoseDaring To Dream

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Northern Rose (James Davies) — watch whether she is allowed to stride out unchallenged from the off; if she gets a soft lead she could prove very hard to reel in before the last.

WATCH

Prettylady — watch her early position; if Jack Tudor can place her within two lengths of Northern Rose rather than being buried in a bunch, her recent winning form makes her the most dangerous threat in the field.

WATCH

I Heard A Rumour — 171 days off the track is a significant concern; watch for any signs of race-rustiness early, particularly at the hurdles, which would confirm she is essentially a non-runner for winning purposes today.

NOTE

Jammy Jay — watch whether Ben Poste attempts to position her closer than her natural style suggests, given the small field; if she is still four or more lengths adrift entering the back straight the steady pace is likely to count against her.

NOTE

Miss Fedora and Daring To Dream — watch for crowding on the first bend with five hold-up types in a six-runner field; a bump or shuffle-back early could effectively end any winning chance for either runner before the race has properly started.

4:35 — Lexus Wrexham Open 2026 Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)

3m · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Lead contested: Back In The Bay v Limerick LeaderHISTORIC

How it ran

Limerick Leader led, as the map showed.

Limerick Leader won at 9.50 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Back In The BayLimerick Leader

Prominent · 2

Post ChaiseRidin Solo

Midfield · 2

Royal TimeBahtiyar

Hold Up · 2

Harrys HopeDepalma

Back In The Bay and Limerick Leader are confirmed front-runners who will contest the lead from the off over this 3m Bangor trip, creating an honest, pressured gallop on good ground with neither likely to give way willingly. Post Chaise and Ridin Solo will push up prominently into the slipstream, meaning the early order will be genuinely competitive and the pace sustained throughout rather than falsely dawdling. This race shape — a genuinely run 3m on good ground with multiple pace angles — classically suits hold-up horses who can travel sweetly off the tempo and produce a late, measured challenge, making Harrys Hope and Depalma the profile types to concentrate on. This field contains more hold-up horses than the rear of the field can naturally accommodate; Royal Time and Bahtiyar are true hold-up types redistributed to midfield on the map, and in practice Back In The Bay and Limerick Leader are most likely to actually secure the front two positions.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Honest pace, stayers grind

54% probability

If Back In The Bay and Limerick Leader set a genuine contested gallop that grinds rivals into the turf from three out

The sustained tempo over 3m on good ground burns off the prominent types and leaves the race to genuine stayers who can switch gears late; Harrys Hope, with strong good-ground form and a hold-up style, is ideally placed to pick off the leaders.

Harrys HopeDepalmaPost ChaiseRidin Solo

Front two dominate unchallenged

22% probability

If one of the pace setters gains a clear break mid-race and the hold-up horses cannot close the gap from the third last

Back In The Bay, with ten runs on good ground and strong course-form, is the likelier of the two pace men to convert a front-running break into a winning effort if rivals idle in behind; Limerick Leader's consistent placing record on good ground makes him the natural second string in this shape.

Back In The BayLimerick LeaderPost ChaiseRidin Solo

Prominent types swoop

15% probability

If the pace fractures or the front two tire quickly, allowing Post Chaise or Ridin Solo to take over from a stalking position at the second last

Post Chaise's return from 554 days off is a clear unknown but he has winning form on good and this trip suits; Ridin Solo has been consistently placed at Bangor-level distances and could benefit if given a soft lead from a prominent berth.

Post ChaiseRidin SoloBack In The BayHarrys Hope

Late closers pounce

9% probability

If the early pace is genuinely fierce and all front-rankers stop, allowing a late-running type to sweep through

Royal Time and Bahtiyar are the natural beneficiaries in this shape but both are mapped out of their true hold-up role and face the challenge of travelling mid-division rather than off the back; their discounted STYLE_FIT tempers confidence in this scenario and it requires an unusually strong pace collapse to land.

Royal TimeBahtiyarHarrys HopeDepalma

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Back In The Bay and Limerick Leader — watch whether they genuinely fight for the lead from the first fence; if either concedes early, the pace scenario collapses and the whole race map shifts.

WATCH

Post Chaise — 554 days off the track is a major fitness unknown; if he runs flat from a prominent position it opens the race wide for the hold-up horses behind him.

WATCH

Depalma — Harry Skelton's booking is eye-catching and the yard is in form, but zero places from seven runs on good ground is a persistent pattern that cannot be ignored if he is to outrun his odds.

NOTE

Royal Time — watch his jumping at the first few fences; if he is slow or untidy early, he will lose his midfield mapping entirely and race further back than intended, making his redistribution position even less natural.

NOTE

Harrys Hope — monitor his position turning for home; if Ben Jones has him covered up in the last group of horses approaching the third last, the 3m trip and sustained gallop should bring him into the race exactly when his rivals tire.

5:10 — Sun Racing Summer Jumps Championship Handicap Hurdle Race

2m3½f · Good · HCAP · 12 runners

Bobby Socks likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Faded Fantasy led; the map had Bobby Socks in front.

Ballynoe Boy won at 4.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Bobby Socks

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 7

EyeeyeBallynoe BoyLord CauvelliereCappa LassCawthorne CrackerDante's InfernoLucky In Taipan

Hold Up · 4

Faded FantasyPresent FairAshdown ForestLa Lolita

Bobby Socks is the lone confirmed front-runner in a 12-runner field and, with no genuine rival likely to press her for the lead on Good ground over 2m3½f at Bangor, she can dictate an honest but uncontested gallop throughout. The substantial majority of this field are true hold-up types by nature — Eyeeye, Ballynoe Boy, Lord Cauvelliere, Cappa Lass, Cawthorne Cracker, Dante's Inferno and Lucky In Taipan are all genuine rear-of-field horses who cannot all settle in their preferred position and several will be shuffled into midfield against their instincts. With pace-pressure minimal and a clear lead available, the race shape strongly favours horses who can travel prominently or make smooth headway from a close-up position before the final two hurdles, rather than those needing a strong end-to-end gallop to bring them into contention from far back.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Bobby Socks Front Controls

52% probability

If Bobby Socks dictates an uncontested, measured gallop and the field trails in a strung-out line.

Bobby Socks rolls along at her own pace on Good ground she handles, setting a rhythm that suits prominent racers who can simply track and pounce, while true hold-up horses in the rear struggle to land a late blow without the strong pace they need.

Bobby SocksAshdown ForestLa LolitaBallynoe Boy

Prominent Horses Dominate

24% probability

If the pace is steady enough that close-up tracking horses swoop past Bobby Socks approaching the last and the race becomes a battle between those who raced handy.

With a gentle gallop, the horses who travel in the first half-dozen have all the energy conserved at the finish; true hold-up horses forced to cover ground from midfield arrive too late to threaten those already in position.

La LolitaAshdown ForestBobby SocksBallynoe Boy

Hold-Up Horse Late Surge

14% probability

If the pace quickens mid-race and the gallop becomes genuinely strong enough to string the field, opening a gap for a hold-up horse to close.

This is the shape least likely to materialise given Bobby Socks is solitary at the head and unlikely to be pressured, but a genuine horse who gets a true test could pick off tiring front-runners; those redistributed from hold-up roles face the added burden of racing out of position.

Ballynoe BoyLa LolitaFaded FantasyPresent Fair

Race Falls Apart Chaotically

10% probability

If multiple horses make aggressive moves to close early, disrupting Bobby Socks's rhythm and causing a bunching finish.

A chaotic mid-race surge from the crowded midfield could result in a messy finish over the final two hurdles; horses with reliable jumping and tactical flexibility cope best when the pattern breaks down unpredictably.

Ashdown ForestLa LolitaCawthorne CrackerDante's Inferno

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Bobby Socks (Sean Quinlan) has an uncontested lead and could exploit it fully — watch whether she is allowed to bowl along unchallenged from the second hurdle, as that scenario makes her very difficult to peg back.

WATCH

Ashdown Forest (Harry Skelton/Dan Skelton) is the sharpest danger if he travels prominently as expected — watch whether Skelton positions him within striking range of Bobby Socks by the top of the straight, as that is the profile this race shape rewards.

WATCH

La Lolita (James Bowen) is fit off 12 days and her Good-ground form is consistent — if she gets a prominent pitch early rather than being blocked in by the congested midfield, she is capable of asserting between the last two hurdles.

NOTE

The crowded mid-to-rear group — Eyeeye, Ballynoe Boy, Lord Cauvelliere, Cappa Lass, Cawthorne Cracker, Dante's Inferno and Lucky In Taipan — will all be jostling for the same space with none able to occupy their natural rear position; watch for traffic issues and interference approaching the fourth-last hurdle.

NOTE

Ballynoe Boy (Danny McMenamin/Nicky Richards) is the most interesting of the redistributed hold-up horses given he won six runs ago on Good; if the pace somehow increases mid-race and he finds daylight turning for home, he represents the most credible latecomer threat in the field.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 4 September 2026.

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