Archive›Bath · 12 May 2026

Bath

12 May 2026 · 6 races

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2:20 — RJ King & Sons EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (B/C/D) (EBF Restricted Qualifier) (GBB)

5f · Good · NOV · 7 runners

Jolly Good Fellows to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Devon Angel and Jolly Good Fellows led, as the map showed.

Sovereign Glory won at 4.33 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Jolly Good Fellows

Prominent · 3

Seed Ya LaterPasserineSovereign Glory

Midfield · 3

Our FellaSuper TuscanDevon Angel

Hold Up · 0

None

Jolly Good Fellows will dictate from the front with no other confirmed speed horses, creating a controlled tempo early. The prominent runners Sovereign Glory, Super Tuscan, Seed Ya Later and Passerine will track behind but none are aggressive early types. With limited pace pressure, Jolly Good Fellows can set sustainable fractions and kick clear in the straight. This setup strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can position close to the pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Jolly Good Fellows Repeats

45% probability

If Jolly Good Fellows gets an uncontested lead and sets her own fractions

She can dictate terms from flag to finish and prove too strong late, replicating last week's victory. The lack of early pace pressure allows her to conserve energy for a decisive move.

Jolly Good FellowsSeed Ya LaterSovereign GlorySuper Tuscan

Prominent Challengers Strike

30% probability

If the prominent runners track closer than expected and put pressure on the leader

Seed Ya Later or Sovereign Glory can strike from ideal positions behind the pace-setter. Their superior ratings advantage tells in a sustained drive to the line.

Seed Ya LaterSovereign GloryJolly Good FellowsPasserine

Crawling Pace Suits Holdups

15% probability

If Jolly Good Fellows sets an overly pedestrian tempo that becomes tactical

The race becomes a sprint finish where Our Fella's unknown ability could emerge. A slowly-run race neutralizes the front-runner's advantage and opens up possibilities.

Our FellaPasserineJolly Good FellowsSeed Ya Later

Leader Folds Under Pressure

10% probability

If multiple horses challenge Jolly Good Fellows simultaneously from the 2f pole

The pace-setter's limitations show as she's swamped by better-rated rivals. Super Tuscan could benefit from the strong pace having shown early speed before.

Super TuscanSeed Ya LaterSovereign GloryPasserine

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Jolly Good Fellows faces the risk of a quick turnaround after just 8 days since her last victory

WATCH

Super Tuscan's early speed could disrupt the expected scenario if he presses Jolly Good Fellows early

NOTE

Our Fella's debut for highly-rated connections could spring a surprise given his unknown ability

NOTE

Track conditions showing Good To Firm across all distances favours the proven course performers

WATCH

The lack of genuine early pace beyond Jolly Good Fellows could create a falsely-run race

2:50 — Bath Mind Charity "Confined" Handicap (No Win Since The 2025 Flat Turf Season)

5½f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Lead contested: Candy Warhol v Under CurfewHISTORIC

How it ran

Candy Warhol led, as the map showed.

Thurso won at 2.62 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Candy WarholUnder Curfew

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 4

The Feminine UrgeHidden VerseDapperlingSome Nightmare

Hold Up · 2

ThursoDanger Alert

Candy Warhol and Under Curfew are both confirmed front-runners who will contest the early lead in this small field of eight. With seven hold-up horses behind them, the pace is likely to be honest but not suicidal, as the two leaders may not need to go flat out early. The absence of prominent runners means a clear gap between the front pair and the rest, creating a tactical race where those able to track the leaders closely will have an advantage. This race shape strongly favours horses with enough pace to position prominently or those who can quicken effectively from midfield, rather than genuine hold-up horses who may get too far behind.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front-runners dominate field

45% probability

If Candy Warhol and Under Curfew set sensible fractions without killing each other

The honest gallop suits their stamina while seven hold-up horses leave themselves too much to do from the rear. The leaders get first run and prove hard to peg back over this sharp 5½f trip.

Candy WarholUnder CurfewHidden VerseThe Feminine Urge

Hold-up horses storm home

30% probability

If the pace becomes too strong between the two front-runners or they go too slow early

Either a hot pace sets up the closers perfectly or a slow pace allows them to use their turn of foot. The class horses from the rear get the perfect setup to unleash late.

Hidden VerseThe Feminine UrgeDanger AlertThurso

Pace collapse favours positioning

15% probability

If both front-runners fold tamely leaving a tactical finish

The race becomes a sprint from the 2f pole with those best positioned to strike. Horses who can track the pace without being trapped wide benefit most.

Danger AlertThursoSome NightmareDapperling

Chaos creates surprise winner

10% probability

If traffic problems or interference disrupt the fancied runners' passages

The race becomes a lottery where gate position and luck in running matter more than ability. An outsider who gets a clear run benefits from others' misfortune.

Some NightmareDapperlingUnder CurfewCandy Warhol

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if Candy Warhol and Under Curfew go too fast early, as this could set up a dramatic late charge from the hold-up horses

WATCH

Monitor Hidden Verse's positioning through the race as he needs to be closer than usual on this sharp track to be effective

NOTE

Keep an eye on Danger Alert who returns from a long break with cheekpieces and a dropping handicap mark

WATCH

Watch for traffic problems in the straight as six hold-up horses will all be looking for racing room simultaneously

NOTE

Observe if Under Curfew shows the same front-running tactics as usual or drops back like he did at Windsor last time

3:20 — Best Cleaning Group Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)

5½f · Good · CLS4 · 5 runners

Queen Sana to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Queen Sana led, as the map showed.

Noble Vow won at 2.10 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Queen Sana

Prominent · 1

In The City

Midfield · 1

Far From Fern

Hold Up · 2

Noble VowPrincess Of Limnos

Queen Sana will take the lead from the break and dictate throughout, with no other committed front-runners to challenge her early. In The City will track just behind in second, while Noble Vow and Princess Of Limnos settle further back. The pace will be controlled rather than frantic, allowing Queen Sana to string the field out down the back straight before the final sprint unfolds. This tactical setup strongly favours prominent runners who can track the leader and hold-up horses who get a true test of stamina, as the sustained gallop will find out the pure speed merchants.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Pace Holds

45% probability

If Queen Sana maintains her lead without being seriously challenged until the final furlong

The even tempo allows her to kick again when threatened, while In The City gets first run from his tracking position. Both prominent runners benefit from the lack of early pace pressure.

Queen SanaIn The CityNoble VowPrincess Of Limnos

Late Surge Succeeds

30% probability

If the moderate early pace sets up a strong late kick from the back markers

Noble Vow overcomes his pulling tendencies by settling better, while the sustained gallop brings stamina into play. The hold-up horses get the perfect scenario with plenty left in the tank.

Noble VowPrincess Of LimnosQueen SanaIn The City

Front Runner Collapse

15% probability

If Queen Sana ties up after her recent quick return or gets pressured more than expected

In The City inherits the lead and has enough left to repel late challengers, benefiting from his patient tactics. The race falls apart for connections between leader and closers.

In The CityNoble VowFar From FernPrincess Of Limnos

Surprise Debut Winner

10% probability

If Far From Fern shows significantly more ability than his breeding suggests and benefits from the race dynamics

The newcomer finds the sustained pace ideal for a staying type making his debut, while the exposed runners fail to capitalize. Professional debut rides sometimes spring surprises in weak maidens.

Far From FernIn The CityQueen SanaNoble Vow

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Noble Vow settling early behind the pace rather than fighting Pat Dobbs, as his recent pulling habits have compromised his finishing kick.

WATCH

Queen Sana's jumping and early pace-setting, as any hesitation from the gates allows In The City to take closer order.

WATCH

In The City's fitness levels after 293 days off, particularly whether he can sustain his challenge in the final furlong.

NOTE

Far From Fern's market moves and early positioning, as any confidence or ability shown could signal future potential.

NOTE

Princess Of Limnos staying on in the final stages rather than fading, which would represent significant improvement from previous efforts.

3:50 — Pockets At Bath Handicap

1m3½f · Good · HCAP · 4 runners

Hibernate likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Electric Bass and Bobby Dassler led; the map had Hibernate in front.

Hibernate won at 2.62 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Hibernate

Prominent · 1

Electric Bass

Midfield · 1

Bobby Dassler

Hold Up · 1

Raintown

Hibernate will take them along from the front after winning by dictating the pace at Yarmouth, with Electric Bass, and Bobby Dassler likely to sit prominently behind him in this small field. Raintown will track from the rear as the only confirmed hold-up performer. With just one natural leader and three prominent runners not applying immediate pressure, this sets up a steady tempo that will quicken late. This pace scenario strongly favors the hold-up horse Raintown, who can use his finishing kick when the race develops into a sprint from the back of the field.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Raintown Kicks Late

45% probability

If Hibernate sets modest fractions without serious pressure from the prominent trio.

The race becomes a staying test where Raintown's fresh legs and hold-up style prove decisive in the final two furlongs. David Probert can time his challenge perfectly as the leaders tire.

RaintownElectric BassBobby Dassler

Front Runner Dominates

30% probability

If Hibernate maintains his Yarmouth form and gets easy sectionals on the front end.

The leader kicks clear approaching the final furlong as the small field fails to mount a serious challenge to his sustained pace. Rossa Ryan repeats the front-running tactics that worked perfectly last time.

HibernateBobby Dassler

Prominent Battle

15% probability

If Electric Bass or Bobby Dassler press Hibernate early and force stronger sectionals.

The pace quickens significantly with multiple horses vying for position, setting up a driving finish between the prominent runners. Jack Mitchell or Christian Howarth capitalize on their forward positions.

Electric BassBobby DasslerHibernate

Pace Collapse

10% probability

If all three prominent runners get into an early speed duel pressuring Hibernate.

The tempo becomes unsustainably fast through the middle sections, allowing Raintown to sweep past tired leaders. The small field works against itself with too much early pace.

RaintownElectric Bass

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Hibernate's ability to handle the 9lb swing from his claiming win will determine if he can repeat his front-running dominance

WATCH

Electric Bass breaking his maiden tag after 12 attempts if the pace setup allows him to strike from his prominent position

NOTE

Raintown's fitness levels second time back after three months off, having needed his recent Bath comeback run

WATCH

Bobby Dassler's course advantage and 80-1 runner-up form here last week making him dangerous at big odds again

NOTE

The small field creating tactical complications where one horse could potentially steal a march on the others

4:23 — Clyde And Co Handicap

1m2f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Prodigal Son to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Prodigal Son and Criminal led, as the map showed.

Party Island won at 5.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Prodigal Son

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 2

Galaxy WonderParty Island

Hold Up · 2

CriminalPremier

Prodigal Son will take this field along as the sole natural front runner, with no other pace pressure allowing him to dictate fractions. The four hold-up horses (Criminal, Party Island, Premier, Galaxy Wonder) will all settle behind in a bunched group, creating a compressed field through the middle stages. This small field dynamic with uncontested leadership sets up a tactical battle where the front runner can control the tempo completely. This race shape strongly favours the front runner profile, as Prodigal Son can steal a march without pace pressure and make his stamina concerns irrelevant.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prodigal Son Controls

55% probability

If Prodigal Son gets soft fractions and kicks clear approaching the straight

The lack of pace pressure allows him to save energy early and have enough left to resist the late challenge. His tactical advantage from controlling the tempo outweighs stamina doubts over this longer trip.

Prodigal SonGalaxy WonderParty IslandPremier

Late Cavalry Charge

25% probability

If the hold-up brigade gets into a rhythm and Prodigal Son stops in the final furlong

Galaxy Wonder and Party Island time their runs perfectly as the leader's stamina gives way. The compressed field behind unleashes multiple challengers who overwhelm the tiring front runner.

Galaxy WonderParty IslandCriminalPremier

Criminal's Headgear Impact

12% probability

If Criminal's first-time headgear transforms his effort and he gets a dream trip

The headgear sharpens his focus dramatically and he finds the turn of foot that's been missing. His recent AW near-miss form translates perfectly to this tactical scenario under the new setup.

CriminalGalaxy WonderParty IslandProdigal Son

Premier Returns Fresh

8% probability

If Premier's 252-day break and wind surgery prove significantly beneficial

His class edge shows through after the long rest and wind operation, making up for ring rustiness with raw ability. The tactical pace setup suits his hold-up style perfectly as he storms home late.

PremierCriminalGalaxy WonderParty Island

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if Prodigal Son gets any early pressure from the hold-up horses trying to sit closer, as this would compromise his tactical advantage completely

WATCH

Watch Criminal's early behaviour with first-time headgear as any settling issues could ruin his chances in this small tactical field

WATCH

Watch Premier for signs of fitness after 252 days off, as any ring rustiness will be exposed in this pace setup

NOTE

Watch the pace through the middle stages as the bunched hold-up quartet could create interference problems turning for home

NOTE

Watch Galaxy Wonder's position turning in as his hat-trick bid depends on finding clear running room from his hold-up style

5:00 — Download The Fairplay App Now Handicap

1m · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Kondratiev Wave likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

My Ambition and Vecchio led; the map had Kondratiev Wave in front.

Nammos won at 21.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Kondratiev Wave

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 6

Lady Of The IslesRoviniaNammosHavana ClubPurple SkyVecchio

Hold Up · 3

Thapa VcRacing DemonMy Ambition

Kondratiev Wave is the lone confirmed front runner and will likely dictate terms from the start without serious pressure. The majority of the field are hold-up horses (Thapa Vc, Racing Demon, Nammos, Lady Of The Isles, My Ambition, Havana Club, Purple Sky, Rovinia, Vecchio) who will sit off the pace and rely on late runs. With only one genuine pace-setter and a cluster of closers, this creates a tactical disadvantage for the hold-up brigade who may find themselves with too much ground to make up if Kondratiev Wave gets loose on the lead. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners and the lone front runner, as the lack of early pace pressure allows them to control the tempo and kick clear when it matters.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dominates

55% probability

If Kondratiev Wave gets an uncontested lead and dictates soft fractions.

The 9-year-old can use his tactical advantage to control the race and prove too strong for the hold-up horses who face a difficult task from off the pace. His string of good AW form translates well to this tactical scenario where he holds all the cards.

Kondratiev WaveMy AmbitionThapa VcHavana Club

Late Charge Succeeds

25% probability

If the hold-up horses can get close enough to mount a serious challenge in the final furlong.

Despite the tactical disadvantage, class horses like My Ambition and Thapa Vc could use their superior ability to reel in the leader if he goes too slow early. The C&D experience of My Ambition becomes crucial in this grinding finish.

My AmbitionThapa VcRacing DemonKondratiev Wave

Improving Closer Strikes

12% probability

If one of the lesser-fancied hold-up horses produces a career-best effort.

Havana Club showed real promise when just a head behind here last time despite a slow start, and without the hood he could time his run perfectly. Racing Demon's C&D wins and return to his favoured 1m trip could see him overcome his slow-start habit.

Havana ClubRacing DemonMy AmbitionKondratiev Wave

Pace Collapse Chaos

8% probability

If Kondratiev Wave goes too fast early or stops quickly, creating a blanket finish.

The front runner's tactics backfire and the race becomes a lottery among the hold-up horses, with any of them capable of picking up the pieces. Form and class go out the window in a messy sprint finish where positioning proves decisive.

Lady Of The IslesNammosPurple SkyRovinia

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Kondratiev Wave breaking clear early and getting uncontested fractions - if he leads by 3+ lengths turning for home he'll be very hard to catch

WATCH

My Ambition and Thapa Vc getting squeezed for racing room in the straight as multiple hold-up horses look for the same gap

WATCH

Racing Demon's starting position from the stalls - his slow-start habit becomes even more costly in a race lacking early pace

NOTE

Havana Club's early positioning without the hood - previous slow starts have cost him but removal of headgear might help his alertness

NOTE

The pace through the first half-mile - if Kondratiev Wave goes too steadily the hold-up horses get a better chance, if he goes too fast he's vulnerable late

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 12 May 2026.

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