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Bath

13 September 2026 · 8 races

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2:05 — Royal Bath & West Society Apprentice Handicap Stakes

1m2f · Good · HCAP · 14 runners

3 vying for the leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Shifra led; the map had Bobby Dassler and Pepper Fizz and Time For Action in front.

Shifra won at 4.33 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Bobby DasslerPepper FizzTime For Action

Prominent · 5

Rogers DreamLauncestonGalactic GlowShifraClaytons Kolatonic

Midfield · 4

Gert LushRavenswellKaaressFitzmaurice

Hold Up · 2

Warriors ChoiceKev

Bobby Dassler, Pepper Fizz, and Time For Action are all confirmed front-runners in a 14-runner field, creating a near-certain strong gallop from the outset over 1m2f on Good ground at Bath. Bath's uphill finish and the sustained pace these three will generate means the race is almost certain to be stamina-testing, with the lead group likely to burn each other off before the straight — all three carry fade flags, reinforcing that the lead will collapse late. This shape strongly favours genuine off-pace runners who can travel comfortably through a true gallop and produce a sustained finish, particularly midfield-to-prominent types with proven stamina at 10f-plus on Good ground. The field holds more front-running and prominent types than can all secure their preferred berths — Galactic Glow, Rogers Dream, Shifra, and Launceston will all want to press forward, meaning traffic and position battles will compress the prominent group early and those who can settle slightly off the pace are best placed.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Pace Collapse, Finishers Rule

46% probability

If Bobby Dassler, Pepper Fizz, and Time For Action burn each other out at a genuine gallop, leaving the lead spent entering the straight.

The three front-runners take the race apart up front, fading in the final two furlongs as the field masses behind them; genuine midfielders who have settled in the slipstream and can sustain their run up Bath's punishing hill hold every advantage.

Gert LushClaytons KolatonicShifraFitzmaurice

Prominent Stalker Lands Blow

28% probability

If one of the prominent trackers sits close enough to the pace to avoid traffic but far enough back to avoid the burn, stealing the initiative before the closers wind up.

A horse in the second rank — racing prominently but not leading — avoids the carnage as the front three tire and pounces decisively before the true off-pace finishers can close; this suits horses with proven Good-ground form at this trip who can quicken from a handy position.

ShifraLauncestonRogers DreamGalactic Glow

Strong Pace, Single Leader Survives

16% probability

If one of the three front-runners (most likely Bobby Dassler, who has the best front-running profile) manages to control the tempo rather than race flat out, conserving enough to hold on.

Rather than an all-out war, the pace proves honest but not suicidal, and a lead horse with the class to dictate on its own terms outstays the closers up the hill; Bobby Dassler's previous win at the front and course experience make him the primary candidate if this shape materialises.

Bobby DasslerPepper FizzGalactic GlowRogers Dream

Closers Pounce Late

10% probability

If the pace is so fierce that the entire prominent group is swallowed up and hold-up horses get a clean run through to the front in the final furlong.

With Kev the only runner mapped to a genuine hold-up position — and tagged with a style-fit discount indicating it is not truly a natural hold-up runner — this shape depends on horses racing out of their natural role and is therefore the least reliable outcome.

KaaressWarriors ChoiceKevRavenswell

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Bobby Dassler, Pepper Fizz, and Time For Action will fight for the early lead from flags — watch for a fierce opening half-mile that could set a scorching pace and destroy their own chances, leaving the race wide open for chasers.

WATCH

Galactic Glow, Rogers Dream, Shifra, and Launceston all want prominent positions in a field that cannot accommodate them all — a crowded, scrimmaging early break could cost any of these runners several lengths before settling.

WATCH

Kaaress is running in only its second race on Good ground from 12 starts and carries a visor — watch for an erratic or unbalanced early run that could compromise its midfield position in a fast-moving race.

NOTE

Gert Lush has finished 2nd in four of its last six runs without converting — watch whether Owen Lewis (5lb claim) can get the horse into a rhythm slightly sooner than usual to finally turn consistent placing into a win.

NOTE

Warriors Choice and Ravenswell both carry fade flags and are the two most likely to drop away dramatically in the straight — their trajectories in the final two furlongs will signal clearly how severe the pace burn has been for the backmarkers.

2:40 — Loud Hire Nursery Handicap Stakes

1m · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

Lead contested: Thunda Struck v Q T BoyHISTORICDraw: L+M · SLIGHT

How it ran

Q T Boy led, as the map showed.

Q T Boy won at 2.50 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Thunda StruckQ T Boy

Prominent · 3

Amethyst StarGobletClear Horizon

Midfield · 3

Secret FliteDark ReignAllaboutthelunch

Hold Up · 3

Magical LifeGravastarZonneveld

Thunda Struck (draw 8) and Q T Boy (draw 2) are both confirmed front-runners and will contest the early lead from opposite ends of the draw, creating a genuinely contested gallop on good ground over a flat mile at Bath. With two pace-setters pushing each other through the early stages, the tempo should be honest rather than suicidal, but enough to stretch the field and set up a test of stamina in the closing stages. This scenario inherently favours runners who can travel prominently without leading — able to sit just off the pace and pounce — or genuine late closers with enough class to pick up the pieces if the speed horses tie each other up. Clear Horizon and Amethyst Star are best placed to exploit a prominent position just off the duel, while Magical Life from the rear is the beneficiary if the pace truly burns. The field holds more hold-up types than can all be accommodated at the back — Allaboutthelunch is a genuine hold-up horse in truth, redistributed into a midfield mapping because the rear is oversubscribed, and its chance must be discounted accordingly given it is unlikely to settle into its natural position.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Contested Pace, Prominent Pounce

55% probability

If Thunda Struck and Q T Boy fight for the lead and burn each other off, leaving a well-positioned prominent runner to pick up the pieces.

The two front-runners push the tempo through the first half-mile, tying each other up before the straight, and the horse sitting just behind them on the bridle makes a decisive move turning in. On good ground at Bath's flat mile, prominent types with good stamina figures inherit the race as the pace-setters capitulate late.

Clear HorizonAmethyst StarSecret FliteGoblet

Front Runner Dictates

22% probability

If one of Thunda Struck or Q T Boy dominates early and the other drops away, allowing a controlled solo lead.

The surviving front-runner settles into a comfortable rhythm after the early battle, dictating an honest but not brutal pace and proving hard to reel in off the front. Bath's flat mile with no severe undulations does not inherently undermine a front-runner who gets a clear lead by the halfway point.

Thunda StruckQ T BoyAmethyst StarClear Horizon

Closers Sweep Late

15% probability

If the early duel between Thunda Struck and Q T Boy is fierce enough to leave the pace a genuine burning wreck, inviting a late sweep.

Both front-runners exhaust each other significantly, opening the door for Magical Life — the Strand Scorecard's top-rated selection — to close powerfully from the rear on good ground, with her recent win over 8f giving her the trip credentials. Clear Horizon could also pick up minor honours as the pace-setters capitulate in the final furlong.

Magical LifeClear HorizonGobletSecret Flite

Midfield Grind, Form Holds

8% probability

If the pace is moderate and the race turns into a tactical grind where class and OR differences prove decisive.

A steadier gallop compresses the field, reducing the advantage of any one running style and rewarding the horse with the strongest recent form figures. Dark Reign or Secret Flite, both OR-competitive midfield types, could pick up minor berths, though neither has shown the form peak to win at this level without a pace collapse.

Dark ReignSecret FliteGravastarZonneveld

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Thunda Struck and Q T Boy are on a collision course for the lead — watch whether one blinks early or they genuinely trade blows, as the outcome of that duel determines the entire race shape.

WATCH

Clear Horizon is partnered by 5lb claimer Olivia Tubb, and the combination of inexperienced pilot and a contested pace could see her lose her prominent pitch entering the back straight — position through the first two furlongs is key.

WATCH

Magical Life breaks from stall 1 on the inside rail — watch for a potential pocket or traffic issue if the field compresses early and she cannot find a clear run into the straight from the rear.

NOTE

Allaboutthelunch's true hold-up nature means it may be caught in traffic in midfield where it has been mapped — if it cannot get back to its natural station, it is effectively racing without a role and should be treated with skepticism in running.

NOTE

Dark Reign is flagged as fading in the finish — if the early pace is genuinely contested and the race develops into a stamina test in the final two furlongs, watch for him dropping out sharply and potentially causing interference to closers coming from behind.

3:15 — Loud Hire Staging Hire Bath Summer Stayers' Series Final Handicap Stakes (Series Final - Qualified Horses Only) (GBBPlus Race)

1m6f · Good · HCAP · 14 runners

Lead contested: Curran v LusakaHISTORIC

How it ran

Boilermaker led; the map had Curran and Lusaka in front.

Boilermaker won at 2.38 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

CurranLusaka

Prominent · 6

TaritinoBoilermakerBelle Of KtFair DinkumTwo Plus TwoThe Craftymaster

Midfield · 2

Percy JonesCorsican Caper

Hold Up · 4

Noble GraceBasiletteVirtual HugBuck Barrow

Curran and Lusaka are the two confirmed front-runners in a 14-runner field, setting up a genuinely contested early gallop at 1m6f on Good ground at Bath — a course where an honest pace at this trip typically stretches the field and tests stamina reserves late. Six of the 14 runners want a prominent pitch, creating significant early congestion in the first half-mile; this compression raises the risk of traffic issues approaching the final two furlongs, which can cost hold-up horses dearly on a track that offers limited room for manoeuvre. With an honest tempo set by two genuine front-runners, the race shape most favours prominent stalkers who can track the pace without burning energy early and then quicken efficiently off it — Boilermaker, The Craftymaster and Belle Of Kt profile well in this mould. The field contains more genuine hold-up and rear-of-field types than the map can accommodate comfortably: Corsican Caper is a true hold-up horse displaced into a midfield mapping because the rear positions are overcrowded, meaning it will almost certainly race out of its optimal role and its chance must be discounted accordingly.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Stalkers Dominate

52% probability

If Curran and Lusaka set a strong but honest gallop and the prominent group track them efficiently without burning early.

The steady pressure from two genuine pace-setters over 1m6f on Good ground creates a true-run race that exposes lack of stamina in the rearguard, while those travelling just behind the leaders into the straight have the positional advantage to quicken clear; Boilermaker's recent back-to-back wins, The Craftymaster's course-and-distance form and Belle Of Kt's high-class finishing record all suit this shape.

BoilermakerThe CraftymasterBelle Of KtFair Dinkum

Leaders Grind Rivals Down

22% probability

If Curran or Lusaka dictates from the front without being seriously pressured once the early scramble settles.

A strong pace-setter who secures a clear lead by halfway can exploit the stamina test on a flat track, controlling fractions and weakening rivals who sit too close; Curran's recent course win and Strand top selection rating make this credible, and Lusaka's go-forward profile gives it each-way claims if Curran leads alone.

CurranLusakaThe CraftymasterBoilermaker

Hold-Up Sweep From Deep

18% probability

If the early pace proves fast enough to cause leaders to tie up in the final furlong and closers get a clear run.

Virtual Hug and Noble Grace are the natural beneficiaries if the race truly falls apart late, with both horses suited by a strongly-run staying test; however, traffic risk two furlongs out is genuine given the congestion, meaning a clear passage cannot be assumed, and this shape requires near-perfect execution from riders at the back of the field.

Virtual HugNoble GraceBasiletteBuck Barrow

Pace Collapses, Midfield Profits

8% probability

If the contested lead causes Curran and Lusaka to burn each other out early and the race fragments, gifting midfielders an unexpected advantage.

Percy Jones and Two Plus Two have the stamina profiles and midfield habits to pick up the pieces if the front end implodes, though neither has the class or finishing acceleration to win a truly well-run race; this is a low-probability outcome given Bath's flat, galloping nature tends to reward controlled-pace scenarios rather than extreme collapses.

Two Plus TwoPercy JonesTaritinoFair Dinkum

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Curran (stall 12) and Lusaka (stall 2) are on opposite flanks — watch for a sustained early duel across the track that strings the field out and creates traffic chaos for prominent horses trying to settle.|

WATCH

The Craftymaster (stall 6) is positioned between both pace-setters on the draw; if it gets squeezed early in the prominent group crush, it risks burning more energy than its course-winning form would normally require.|

WATCH

Virtual Hug and Noble Grace are both true hold-up horses attempting 1m6f from the rear — if the prominent group stacks up two furlongs out as projected, they face a wall of horses with limited course width to find a gap.|

NOTE

Boilermaker is a 3-year-old giving significant weight to older rivals under the conditions — Luke Morris will need to judge the pace precisely, but if the weight-for-age swing is manageable at this trip on Good, the recent back-to-back winning form makes it the most dangerous prominent stalker.|

NOTE

Corsican Caper's redistribution means it will likely race two to three lengths closer to the pace than it wants; connections and punters should note its finishing effort may be compromised before the straight even arrives.|

3:50 — Loud Hire Production Services Bath Summer Sprint Series Final Handicap Stakes (Series Final - Qualified Horses Only)

5½f · Good · HCAP · 17 runners

Coast to leadHISTORICDraw: L · STRONG

How it ran

Coast led, as the map showed.

Rinky Tinky Tinky won at 17.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.

10 of 17 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Coast

Prominent · 7

MortuboNordic GloryGeemannLegendsofthelandBig Time RascalSub ThirteenHonour Your Dreams

Midfield · 4

The Feminine UrgeSouthbankRinky Tinky TinkyMy Boy Jack

Hold Up · 5

Neptune LegendDark SunSioux WarriorCougar ForceSisters In The Sky

Coast is the lone confirmed front-runner and, from stall 4 (favoured draw), should lead uncontested early, setting a sustainable gallop that is unlikely to be truly punishing. However, there is significant prominent congestion — Mortubo, Legendsoftheland, Big Time Rascal, Geemann, Nordic Glory, Sub Thirteen, and Honour Your Dreams all want to race prominently — meaning the first two furlongs will be scrappy and the rail positions in the favoured low draws will be fiercely contested, creating a real traffic squeeze 2-3 furlongs out. The field holds more prominent types than can all secure their natural position, and Mortubo (stall 5, FAVOURED) and Geemann (stall 9) are best-placed drawn-wise to actually get prominent berths, while wider-drawn prompters like Legendsoftheland (15) and Nordic Glory (16) face an uphill task reaching those positions from the outside. With Coast setting an honest but not frantic tempo and prominent types fighting for position, this race shape favours hold-up horses with good tactical speed who can sit just off the early scrum and produce a clean late run — specifically those drawn in low-to-middle stalls who can track through cleanly.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Coast leads, prominent wall

55% probability

If Coast dictates a moderate tempo and the prominent pack settles into a grouped chase behind, setting up a straight sprint for position.

Coast's uncontested lead at a Fair pace compresses the field into a wall of prominent horses turning in, rewarding those who track the pace economically from low draws and deliver a crisp finishing effort; the favoured low-side draw becomes decisive as horses punch clear on the stand rail.

MortuboGeemannDark SunRinky Tinky Tinky

Pace collapses, closers pounce

20% probability

If the prominent logjam forces a faster-than-expected early tempo as horses battle for position, leaving Coast and frontrunners spent.

The scramble for prominent positions 3f out burns fuel prematurely, creating a gap for genuine hold-up horses in the final furlong as the leader fades; this suits horses with a clean passage from low-to-mid draws who have been covered up.

Dark SunSisters In The SkyNeptune LegendSioux Warrior

Wide draw overcomes bias

15% probability

If the rail advantage is negated by traffic trouble among low-drawn horses, allowing high-drawn runners to swoop down the middle late.

A congested rail in the early exchanges forces low-drawn horses to check or switch, briefly opening a racing lane wider out in the straight for prominent types from bigger stalls who get a clear passage; it is not the likely shape but the prominent logjam makes it live.

LegendsofthelandHonour Your DreamsNordic GloryThe Feminine Urge

My Boy Jack lands late

10% probability

If the field goes hard enough and long enough early that a true back-marker can pick through beaten rivals in the final 100 yards.

My Boy Jack's redistributed midfield mapping reflects genuine hold-up instincts, and only a truly strong pace and clear passage would allow such a runner to arrive late with winning momentum; this is the least-likely shape given Coast is unlikely to set a suicidal gallop.

My Boy JackNeptune LegendCougar ForceSioux Warrior

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Prominent logjam danger: Mortubo, Big Time Rascal, Geemann, Nordic Glory, and Legendsoftheland all want to be prominent — expect significant early shoving between stalls 5-16, with horses crossing and checking inside the first furlong and real traffic danger 2-3f out.|

WATCH

Coast (stall 4) carries a fade-in-finish flag and has zero wins from 15 Good-ground starts — if the leader deflates earlier than expected after 3f, the prominent wall will hit a wall of slow horses before the turn and the race could get muddled quickly.|

WATCH

Legendsoftheland (stall 15) and Honour Your Dreams (stall 17) are prominent types stacked in the worst draws in the field — watch whether either horse bleeds early energy crossing to the rail or drops back into traffic, which would effectively remove them from the race shape despite their form credentials.|

NOTE

Rinky Tinky Tinky (stall 1) and Sisters In The Sky (stall 3) both get the prime low draws without needing to fight for them — if the favoured rail produces any meaningful advantage on the day, these two are best placed structurally to exploit it throughout the 5½f.|

NOTE

My Boy Jack's visor and genuine hold-up profile means Olivia Haines (7lb claim) must resist any temptation to go forward from stall 2 — if the filly is ridden to her natural style the stall advantage is wasted, but if she settles correctly she could be a late factor.|

4:25 — Loud Hire Equipment Rental Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)

5f · Good · CLS5 · 7 runners

Lead contested: Big Hitter v On The Queue TeeHISTORICDraw: L · STRONG

How it ran

Crimson Blaze led; the map had Big Hitter and On The Queue Tee in front.

Big Hitter won at 1.62 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Big HitterOn The Queue Tee

Prominent · 2

RomidijoCrimson Blaze

Midfield · 1

Sacred Rhythm

Hold Up · 2

Cotai JauntAdelaides Turn

Big Hitter (draw 4, NEUTRAL) and On The Queue Tee (draw 5, AGAINST) are both confirmed front-runners, setting up a genuinely contested pace from the break over this sharp 5f at Bath. On The Queue Tee draws against the favoured low side, which may blunt her ability to dictate alone, while Big Hitter sits in a more central berth and carries the higher OR (76 vs 65), giving her the edge in any early battle for the lead. The resulting honest gallop is unlikely to be suicidal but will be genuine enough to put pressure on one-paced rivals and leave little margin for error in the finish. This race shape most favours prominent-to-lead types drawn low who can track the pace comfortably and sprint past a briefly headed leader — Romidijo's low draw (1, FAVOURED) and prominent style make her ideally positioned to exploit any contest up front.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Big Hitter Controls, Wins

62% probability

If Big Hitter repels On The Queue Tee's early challenge and sets a strong but sustainable gallop from a central draw.

Big Hitter's higher OR and recent placed form at 5f on Good ground suggest she has the class to hold her rivals at a pressured but manageable pace; from draw 4 she can angle toward the favoured low rail and find the extra gear she has shown previously.

Big HitterRomidijoOn The Queue TeeSacred Rhythm

Low-Draw Closer Pounces

20% probability

If the front-runner duel burns off Big Hitter and On The Queue Tee, allowing a low-drawn tracker to sweep past.

Romidijo from stall 1 is perfectly positioned to track the pace on the favoured side and time a run if the leaders briefly tie each other up; her two placings in similar Good-ground 5f contests confirm she handles the conditions and can quicken late.

RomidijoSacred RhythmBig HitterCotai Jaunt

On The Queue Tee Leads Wire

12% probability

If On The Queue Tee overcomes her unfavoured draw to seize the initiative unchallenged and sets a softer pace.

A softer gallop would suit her stamina-over-speed profile, and if Big Hitter misses the break or is ridden more conservatively, On The Queue Tee can dictate from the front and hold every rival at bay to the line.

On The Queue TeeBig HitterRomidijoCrimson Blaze

Outsider Lands a Blow

6% probability

If the front-runners burn each other out completely and an unconsidered runner from further back catches the leaders napping.

Sacred Rhythm (draw 2, FAVOURED) has the benefit of the low rail from midfield and is lightly raced enough to be unexposed; Cotai Jaunt's hold-up style and fresh yard (11 days since last run) give her an outside each-way chance if the pace collapses in the final furlong.

Sacred RhythmCotai JauntAdelaides TurnCrimson Blaze

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch Big Hitter vs On The Queue Tee at the break — if On The Queue Tee pushes hard from stall 5 to match Big Hitter's early pace, both leaders risk racing too freely, which would dramatically open the door for Romidijo from stall 1 to swoop late.

WATCH

Romidijo's draw (1) on the favoured low rail at Bath is a major tactical weapon — watch whether Jack Callan settles him just off the pace or commits early, as the ride pattern will determine whether he has enough left to reel in Big Hitter in the final furlong.

WATCH

On The Queue Tee's unfavoured stall 5 draw is a structural disadvantage on this course — watch the early stages to see if Jason Watson angles sharply left to access the low rail, as that manoeuvre could compromise her position and rhythm against a fresher Big Hitter.

NOTE

Sacred Rhythm (stall 2) is the most notable unknown in the race — a lightly-raced filly with just one run, she could improve sharply second time out and her low draw gives her every chance to sit handy; if the front-runners do tie each other up, she is the most likely beneficiary outside the top two.

NOTE

Crimson Blaze and Adelaides Turn both carry fade flags and are drawn wide (stalls 6 and 7) — if either makes the frame it would likely indicate the pace collapsed completely, but both face a difficult combination of style, draw, and form concerns that make them unlikely movers.

5:00 — Loud Hire Sound And Lighting Hire Handicap Stakes

5f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners

Recon Mission to leadHISTORICDraw: L · STRONG

How it ran

Recon Mission led, as the map showed.

Macanudo won at 5.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Recon Mission

Prominent · 5

MacanudoTen CuidadoOuter EdgeWedgewoodSymbol Of Hope

Midfield · 3

It's A Mugs GameSpirited DancerLochaber

Hold Up · 4

Ken BruleeJackie BrownPrincess Of LimnosBluesy Moon

Recon Mission breaks from stall 1 (favoured draw) and is the only confirmed front-runner in the field, meaning he should stride into an uncontested lead from the outset over this flat Bath 5f. With no genuine challenger disputing the pace, Luke Morris can control tempo entirely, setting a sustainable gallop that plays directly to Recon Mission's proven front-running profile — his Good-ground form reads six runs with a win and three places, underlining the surface suits. Behind him, prominent types Macanudo (stall 4), Symbol Of Hope (stall 2) and Wedgewood (stall 3) will press forward from the favoured low draws, creating a small cluster of chasers without disrupting the leader. This race shape — a lone, uncontested pace-setter on a flat, good-ground track — overwhelmingly favours front-runners and prominent racers drawn low who can slot in behind and maximise the favoured rail.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Recon Mission Controls Cleanly

62% probability

If Recon Mission dictates a comfortable, uncontested lead from stall 1 and the prominent chasers never close the gap.

Morris sets an honest but manageable pace, and with no rival pressing him, Recon Mission simply runs his rivals flat on Good ground — his best surface — and his 5f record at this level is the class reference point in the field. Prominent chasers drawn low (Macanudo, Wedgewood) plug on for minor honours but the leader has too much rope.

Recon MissionMacanudoWedgewoodSymbol Of Hope

Low-Draw Prominent Pounce

20% probability

If Recon Mission fades in the final furlong and a low-drawn prominent runner swoops from close range.

Macanudo (stall 4, P) or Wedgewood (stall 3, P) tracks the leader through the race from the inside, benefits from the favoured draw, and collects if the front-runner stops — both have shown the ability to finish off races at this trip. Wedgewood's recent form of 122 is compelling and the STRAND Scorecard marks him as the chief danger.

WedgewoodMacanudoSymbol Of HopeTen Cuidado

Closer Hits Late

11% probability

If the early pace is hot enough to string the field out and a hold-up horse delivers a telling late run.

Ken Brulee (stall 6) has course-and-distance winning form on Good ground and is the most credible hold-up type with class credentials in the back half of the field; Jackie Brown (stall 13) faces a tough against-draw but has shown strong finishing ability. The against-draw burden and flat-track nature of Bath limit the upside for closers when pace is modest.

Ken BruleeJackie BrownSpirited DancerPrincess Of Limnos

Pace Collapse Scramble

7% probability

If multiple prominent types push the early pace, Recon Mission is crowded out and the race becomes a ragged sprint.

With Macanudo, Symbol Of Hope, Wedgewood and Ten Cuidado all showing prominent tendencies, a scrappy start could unsettle Recon Mission, compressing the field and opening the door to any horse that finds a clear run. This remains unlikely given Recon Mission's low-draw advantage and Morris's experience, but mid-draw midfielders like Spirited Dancer could profit from the chaos.

Spirited DancerIt's A Mugs GameOuter EdgeLochaber

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Wedgewood (stall 3) is the STRAND danger — watch for Marco Ghiani slotting into the favoured inside rail and if Recon Mission shows any sign of weakening inside the final furlong, Wedgewood is best placed to pounce.

WATCH

Ten Cuidado (stall 12) wears a visor for the first time at this level and is unexposed over 5f — if the gear sparks an early dash, he could push the pace harder than anticipated and compress the lead for Recon Mission.

WATCH

Ken Brulee (stall 6) owns the strongest similar-going win record in the field (2W from 13) and if pace is genuinely strong early, his hold-up finishing ability could make him dangerous late — watch his position at the 2f pole.

NOTE

The draw bias is stark: stalls 1-4 account for four of the five most interesting runners; if any of these suffer interference at the break, reassess the race shape entirely as the moderate pace would then benefit a different profile.

NOTE

Bluesy Moon's fade flag combined with stall 11 means any punter tracking field position at halfway should watch for her dropping away sharply — her trajectory backwards may signal which horses are travelling best turning for home.

5:30 — Loud Hire Supporting Bath Racecourse Handicap Stakes (Div I)

1m · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

Lead contested: Sant Alessio v Port ErinHISTORICDraw: L+M · SLIGHT

How it ran

Footstepinthewoods and Oviedo led; the map had Sant Alessio and Port Erin in front.

Footstepinthewoods won at 6.00 — led, where the map had it was held up.

0 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Sant AlessioPort Erin

Prominent · 3

RatingTonalOviedo

Midfield · 3

Denby's DreamRed MoonBlue Hero

Hold Up · 3

DecalogueFootstepinthewoodsRisen Again

Sant Alessio (draw 1) and Port Erin (draw 6) are both confirmed front-runners and will contest the early lead from the outset, creating a genuinely contested gallop rather than an artificial dawdle — on Good ground at Bath over a mile this produces a honest, even tempo that rarely collapses entirely. Oviedo (Prominent, draw 3) and Rating (Prominent, draw 4) sit just behind the pace, ideally placed to pounce if the two leaders soften each other, while Tonal (draw 11) must work wider from an outer prominent berth. Port Erin carries a noted tendency to fade in the finish, meaning Sant Alessio is likely the more durable pace-setter, but if he is pushed hard early both may be vulnerable to a prominently-ridden horse travelling under restraint. This race shape — a genuine contested pace on good ground — most favours horses racing Prominently who can sit just off the heat and produce their finish in the final two furlongs; hold-up horses face additional complications because the field contains more true hold-up types than the map can accommodate at the rear, with Blue Hero, Red Moon, and Denby's Dream all likely to be pushed forward out of their natural position, meaning the true late-closers are fewer than they appear and the prominent profile is structurally advantaged.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Contested Pace, Prominent Wins

52% probability

If Sant Alessio and Port Erin push each other from the gate and the Prominent horses travel smoothly just off the heat.

The two leaders burn each other out over the first half-mile on good ground, leaving Oviedo and Rating perfectly poised to inherit the lead entering the final two furlongs with energy in reserve. This shape is the structural favourite given the confirmed dual-pace setup and rewards horses who can dictate their own rhythm without expending early energy.

OviedoRatingTonalRisen Again

Front-Runner Dictates Solo

22% probability

If Sant Alessio gains a clear early advantage and Port Erin settles for a secondary role or capitulates after the first furlong.

Without genuine pressure, Sant Alessio controls tempo and slows the early fractions enough to conserve energy for the home straight, making him very hard to peg back. Oviedo, tracking closely from draw 3, remains the biggest threat to pounce, but a solo Sant Alessio at his own pace is a different proposition from a pressured one.

Sant AlessioOviedoRatingTonal

Leaders Fold, Midfield Sweeps

17% probability

If the early pace proves genuinely hot and both front-runners fold turning for home, opening a gap for those just behind.

Rating and Tonal, racing prominently but with more restraint than the leaders, are best positioned to capitalise as the pace collapses in the final quarter-mile. Risen Again, a genuine hold-up type whose recent form at this trip on good ground is strong, could also arrive late if the tempo is truly searching.

RatingRisen AgainTonalDecalogue

Late Closers Steal It

9% probability

If the pace implodes spectacularly and the race is run at a falsely honest tempo that still leaves something for the genuine hold-up horses.

This scenario requires Footstepsinthewoods or Decalogue to find clear daylight from a chaotic finish, but several ostensible closers — Blue Hero, Red Moon, Denby's Dream — are actually racing out of their natural rear-of-field role and are unlikely to be truly last, reducing the pool of genuine late finishers. The scenario is structurally weakened by the redistribution effect and should be treated as a low-probability outlier.

FootstepsinthewoodsDecalogueBlue HeroRed Moon

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Port Erin's fade-in-finish flag combined with Sant Alessio's pressure means watch for both leaders stopping quickly inside the final two furlongs — any prominent horse (Oviedo, Rating) still travelling at that point will be very hard to beat.

WATCH

Tonal's wide draw (11) on a right-handed track means watch his early positioning — if Callan is forced to use energy tracking across to the stands rail, it will compromise his run in the straight.

WATCH

Blue Hero, Red Moon and Denby's Dream are all true hold-up horses racing out of their natural rear position — if any of them are pushed forward into a midfield scrap early, watch for erratic running or a compromised finish as their energy management is disrupted.

NOTE

Oviedo's apprentice rider Wonnacott claims 5lb — watch whether that weight advantage is fully exploited from draw 3, as any stumble out of the gate or early traffic would negate a key structural edge in what looks a strong pace scenario for the Prominent profile.

NOTE

Going is uniformly Good across all eight Bath races today — no meaningful surface deterioration expected by the 5:30, so no individual horse gains a late-going edge; the pace map holds as constructed.

6:00 — Loud Hire Supporting Bath Racecourse Handicap Stakes (Div II)

1m · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

Lead contested: Danehill Star v Grimese's SpecialHISTORICDraw: L+M · SLIGHT

How it ran

Danehill Star and Grimese's Special led, as the map showed.

Danehill Star won at 9.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

6 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Danehill StarGrimese's Special

Prominent · 4

Dappled LightDark RosaSagremorMr Tony

Midfield · 2

ChelioStation Bar

Hold Up · 3

EutropiaFlag CarrierAlbus Anne

Danehill Star and Grimese's Special are the two confirmed front-runners, and with both likely to press for the lead from the gates, an honest-to-brisk gallop is the expected shape over Bath's flat mile on good ground. Danehill Star, drawn 10, has the class edge of the two pace-setters and should establish the rhythm, with Grimese's Special (draw 8, a 7lb claimer) likely to track or push alongside before fading; that genuine early fractions will stretch the field and compress the race into a stamina test in the final two furlongs. The field holds more front-running and prominent types than can realistically all get their desired position — Chelio and Station Bar are natural prominent/hold-up horses redistributed in the map because the race shape pushes them rearward against their will, with Dappled Light and Dark Rosa the most likely to actually secure a tracking berth behind the front two. This pace shape strongly favours the prompt, on-pace prominent riders who can travel in the slipstream of a genuine gallop and produce a sustained finish — closers from deep will need everything to go their way given the field size and the likely traffic, while confirmed hold-up types face the most uncertainty.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Contested Lead, Prominent Win

54% probability

If Danehill Star and Grimese's Special set an honest pace and a prominent tracker picks them off in the straight.

The two front-runners burn each other up, leaving the race wide open for a horse that has travelled smoothly just off the pace; on Good ground at Bath the straight is long enough for a prominent horse with a good recent record to sustain a run to the line. Dappled Light's five-run sequence of placings and wins at 8f on Good ground makes this profile tailor-made, with Mr Tony's recent winning form also suiting a race run at a solid clip.

Dappled LightMr TonyDark RosaDanehill Star

Danehill Star Dictates, Wins

22% probability

If Grimese's Special fades early and Danehill Star controls a moderate-to-honest pace from the front without being seriously pressed.

Danehill Star, who has won on Good ground at 8f and shown strong form figures of 1-2-3 in his last five outings, would be able to set a comfortable tempo and hold enough in reserve to repel challengers in the straight. Tony Carroll's recent 3-from-38 14-day strike rate is modest but Danehill Star's own form is strong enough to win a race at this level if handed a free lead.

Danehill StarDappled LightMr TonyDark Rosa

Late Closers Pounce

15% probability

If the pace is truly searching and the front-runners tie each other up, creating an opening for a hold-up finisher to weave through late.

Eutropia has shown a pattern of placing from off the pace on Good ground (three placings in similar conditions) and Flag Carrier's single win came on Good ground at 8f, so both carry some relevance if the race develops into a true test. However, genuine hold-up horses are a diminished group here given redistribution, and Bath's flat mile does not always reward late closers who get stuck in traffic with 11 runners.

EutropiaFlag CarrierDark RosaAlbus Anne

Chaos — Pace Collapse

9% probability

If Grimese's Special or Danehill Star goes too fast, the field bunches, and a midfield type who sits comfortably benefits from a scrambled finish.

Station Bar won at 8f on Firm ground recently and has Youth on its side as a 3-year-old, but its redistribution from a natural hold-up role means it cannot be trusted to produce its best from a compressed race shape where it rarely secures ideal positioning. Sagremor, though yet to win, has placed from midfield and could pick up pieces if the race completely falls apart at the front.

Station BarSagremorChelioDark Rosa

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Danehill Star and Grimese's Special — watch whether they go head-to-head from the gates or one yields; if Danehill Star grabs a soft lead unchallenged, his chance escalates sharply and Scenario B becomes more likely.

WATCH

Chelio and Station Bar — both are natural-style horses racing out of their preferred position in this field; if either is seen travelling strongly in an uncharacteristically deep position early, consider whether they can deliver a finishing effort from an unfamiliar role.

WATCH

Mr Tony — 67 days off the track is the single biggest unknown for the Strand top pick; watch market moves before the off as a sign of stable confidence, and note whether the hood has the desired sharpening effect on his jumping from the stalls.

NOTE

Dappled Light — back-to-back wins at 8f on Good ground means she is the most in-form prominent type in the race; watch whether Darragh Keenan slots her immediately behind the two front-runners from draw 2, as that position would be ideal.

NOTE

Flag Carrier — 41 days off and a return to Good ground after a poor effort at 16f on Soft; if the market shortens significantly from an opening price, the gelding's previous win at 8f on Good becomes more relevant than his recent form suggests.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 13 September 2026.

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