Archive›Bath · 17 April 2026

Bath

17 April 2026 · 8 races

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Read from the in-running comments·How often this is right →

4:15 — Blackmore Build And Design Handicap

2m1f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Man Of The Sea to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Lusaka led; the map had Man Of The Sea in front.

No More Bolero won at 4.33 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Man Of The Sea

Prominent · 2

Peking OperaNo More Bolero

Midfield · 2

Bashful BoyThe Craftymaster

Hold Up · 2

EducatorLusaka

Man Of The Sea takes the field along from the front with no obvious challengers for the early lead, creating a controlled tempo over the extended distance. Peking Opera and No More Bolero may track in behind but neither are natural pace forcers, while the bulk of the field (Educator, Bashful Boy, The Craftymaster, Lusaka) are hold-up merchants who need the race to come to them. With minimal early pace pressure, Man Of The Sea can dictate fractions and potentially steal a march, while the hold-up brigade risk getting caught flat-footed if the tempo is too sedate. This race shape clearly favours the front-runner and any prominent racers who can position themselves handy, as the abundance of hold-up horses creates a tactical logjam behind.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Controls

45% probability

If Man Of The Sea gets an uncontested lead and maintains a steady but not excessive tempo

The 10-year-old can use his tactical advantage to build an insurmountable lead while the hold-up horses struggle to organize a coherent challenge from the back. His recent course win and proven stamina make him perfectly suited to exploit this weak pace scenario.

Man Of The SeaPeking OperaNo More BoleroEducator

Late Surge Prevails

30% probability

If the pace becomes genuinely slow and bunches the field up for a sprint finish

The quality hold-up horses get their preferred scenario with Educator and Bashful Boy able to unleash their superior turn of foot in the final furlong. Hollie Doyle's tactical acumen on Educator becomes crucial in timing the late challenge perfectly.

EducatorBashful BoyThe CraftymasterLusaka

Prominent Tracker Strikes

15% probability

If Peking Opera or No More Bolero position themselves perfectly behind the leader and pounce late

The former Listed winner Peking Opera uses class to tell, stalking Man Of The Sea before finding extra gear that the front-runner cannot match. This scenario requires perfect positioning from Queally to avoid getting caught in the hold-up traffic.

Peking OperaNo More BoleroMan Of The SeaEducator

Unconventional Winner Emerges

10% probability

If the race develops into a messy tactical affair with multiple false starts in the straight

The Craftymaster or Lusaka benefit from the chaos, with their recent AW form translating well to this tactical puzzle. Their lower weights become telling factors when the principals neutralize each other through poor positioning.

The CraftymasterLusakaBashful BoyMan Of The Sea

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Man Of The Sea must be monitored early - if he gets a soft lead unchallenged, the hold-up horses may have left themselves too much to do

WATCH

The pace development in the first half-mile is crucial - with so many hold-up horses, any dawdling tempo plays into the front-runner's hands

WATCH

Watch Peking Opera's position turning for home - his class advantage only counts if Queally can find a clear run through the hold-up traffic

NOTE

The Craftymaster's low weight could be significant if this becomes a messy tactical affair with multiple runners still in contention late

NOTE

Educator's finishing kick needs monitoring - if the pace is genuine early, her hold-up style becomes much more potent

4:50 — Blackmore Building Contractors British EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (Bands C/D) (GBB Race)

5f · Good · NOV · 16 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

5:20 — MJ Church Handicap

5½f · Good · HCAP · 12 runners

Connie's Rose to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Connie's Rose led, as the map showed.

Justcallmepete won at 7.50 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Connie's Rose

Prominent · 5

Hunky DoryArabian CobraMr LightsideJax EdgeSafari Dream

Midfield · 2

StrikeMumayaz

Hold Up · 4

JustcallmepeteMoe's LegacyToolatetonegotiateAces Wild

Connie's Rose is the sole confirmed front-runner and will dictate a comfortable early gallop without pressure. Behind her, five horses (Mr Lightside, Arabian Cobra, Jax Edge, Hunky Dory, Safari Dream) all want prominent positions, creating congestion and scrimmaging through the first 2-3 furlongs. This congestion will compromise some prominent runners and allow the patient hold-up horses like Strike, Moe's Legacy, Justcallmepete, and Mumayaz to get clear runs approaching the final furlong. The race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can avoid the early traffic and finish with late runs.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If the prominent runners get tangled up in traffic 2-3 furlongs out

The patient types get clear runs while the scrimmagers pay for their early positioning battles. Strike, Moe's Legacy and Mumayaz can unleash finishing kicks.

StrikeMoe's LegacyMumayazJustcallmepete

Connie's Rose Wire-To-Wire

25% probability

If Connie's Rose gets an uncontested lead and the prominent pack doesn't organize

She builds an unassailable advantage while the chasers fight each other, holding on despite her 179-day layoff. The front-runner's tactics prove perfect for the chaotic field behind.

Connie's RoseArabian CobraMr LightsideSafari Dream

Prominent Runner Breaks Clear

12% probability

If one of the prominent horses avoids the early traffic and gets first run

Arabian Cobra or Hunky Dory escapes the congestion cleanly and kicks clear before the hold-up horses can respond. Their class tells in the closing stages.

Arabian CobraHunky DoryJax EdgeMr Lightside

Complete Pace Collapse

8% probability

If Connie's Rose goes too slow and all prominent runners wait too long

The race becomes a sprint from the 2f pole with no horse having a clear tactical advantage. Form and fitness become the deciding factors rather than running style.

JustcallmepeteHunky DoryStrikeArabian Cobra

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for traffic chaos 2-3 furlongs out when five prominent runners (Mr Lightside, Arabian Cobra, Jax Edge, Hunky Dory, Safari Dream) converge

WATCH

Monitor Connie's Rose's early fractions - if too slow she invites trouble, if too fast she may not last home after 179 days off

NOTE

Track which prominent horses get squeezed in the early battle as this will determine the winners

WATCH

Several key contenders (Strike, Aces Wild, Jax Edge) return after 165+ day breaks with fitness questions

NOTE

Watch for Moe's Legacy and Mumayaz to be held up longest as they have the best recent form among the patient types

5:52 — Wight Event Toilets Hire Handicap

5½f · Good · HCAP · 15 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Grey Horizon led; the map had Starmade and Marcellinus and Red Snapper in front.

Marcellinus won at 4.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it led.

3 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

StarmadeMarcellinusRed Snapper

Prominent · 6

Blue OrbitAkabusiRomeo MontagueGrey HorizonCampenaertsQuantum Power

Midfield · 2

CoyyCarefree Dream

Hold Up · 4

AlvinWedonttellliesNoble VowConcert

Starmade, Marcellinus and Red Snapper will ensure a strong gallop from the flag, with six prominent runners (Blue Orbit, Coyy, Romeo Montague, Campenaerts, Grey Horizon, Akabusi, Quantum Power, Carefree Dream) creating serious congestion behind the leaders. The pace will be testing over this sharp 5½f at Bath, with the prominent pack likely to encounter traffic problems turning for home. This setup strongly favours the hold-up horses who can avoid the early scrimmaging - Wedonttelllies, Noble Vow, Concert and Alvin have the tactical advantage to pick off tired leaders in the final furlong.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses profit

45% probability

If the three confirmed leaders set a strong gallop and the prominent pack encounters traffic

The testing pace will set up perfectly for Wedonttelllies, Noble Vow, Concert and Alvin to sweep past tiring front-runners. These hold-up horses avoid the early congestion and have proven finishing kicks.

WedonttellliesAlvinNoble VowConcert

Front-runners steal it

25% probability

If one of the three leaders gets an easy time by going clear early

Red Snapper or Starmade could dictate terms if they escape the pack, with their natural speed proving decisive over this sharp track. The hold-up horses would need the pace to collapse completely to reel them in.

Red SnapperStarmadeMarcellinusBlue Orbit

Prominent runners prevail

20% probability

If the prominent pack can navigate the traffic and the pace isn't as strong as expected

Blue Orbit returning from a wind operation or Campenaerts dropping in class could time their challenge perfectly from prominent positions. They avoid both the early burn of the leaders and the ground-making task of hold-up horses.

Blue OrbitCampenaertsRomeo MontagueGrey Horizon

Pace collapses early

10% probability

If the three leaders go too fast and burn out before halfway

The entire field would come with late runs but those with the best turn of foot would prevail in a sprint finish. This would particularly suit Concert who has shown good late pace on recent efforts.

ConcertNoble VowWedonttellliesQuantum Power

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Starmade and Marcellinus both return from long breaks as natural leaders - if either shows ring-rust the pace could collapse completely

WATCH

Blue Orbit and Coyy have both had wind operations during their breaks which could significantly impact their performance

WATCH

Six prominent runners will create serious congestion 2-3 furlongs out where the track narrows - positioning will be crucial

NOTE

Red Snapper carries just 119lbs with 3lb claimer Laura Coughlan and has course winning form - could steal this from the front

NOTE

Wedonttelllies and Alvin are the only hold-up horses with recent form - both showed strong late pace in their latest runs

6:22 — Unibet Supports Bath Racecourse Restricted Maiden Stakes (Bands C/D) (GBB Race)

1m · Good · CLS4 · 7 runners

Tough Date likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Ourbren and Miss Mambo led; the map had Tough Date in front.

Ourbren won at 1.20 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Tough Date

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 4

Malakai KiteMiss MamboOcean ForceLamlash

Hold Up · 2

Three No TrumpsOurbren

Tough Date will lead uncontested from the start with his prominent style, creating a steady, sustainable pace throughout the 1m trip. The field behind will string out with Ourbren, Ocean Force, Three No Trumps, Miss Mambo and Lamlash all adopting hold-up tactics, leaving no early pressure on the leader. This honest gallop will favour prominent runners who can sit close to the pace, as the field will have plenty to do from midfield and beyond against an uncontested front-runner. Hold-up horses face a significant tactical disadvantage with no early pace pressure to set up their late kick.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

45% probability

If Tough Date maintains a steady tempo without early pressure from the field

The lack of pace pressure allows him to dictate terms and kick clear in the straight, making it difficult for hold-up horses to close the gap. His recent third at this C&D shows he handles the track and trip effectively.

Tough DateMalakai KiteOurbrenThree No Trumps

Hold-Up Quality Prevails

30% probability

If the class difference proves decisive despite tactical disadvantage

Ourbren and Three No Trumps overcome the unfavorable pace scenario through superior ability, with their higher ratings allowing them to close strongly. The good going conditions help their finishing kicks from off the pace.

OurbrenThree No TrumpsTough DateMalakai Kite

Lightly Raced Improver Strikes

15% probability

If Malakai Kite shows natural improvement from his debut experiences

The unknown quantity benefits from sitting closer to the pace than the other hold-up horses, allowing him to strike when the rest are still working their way into contention. His pedigree suggests this trip and conditions should suit.

Malakai KiteTough DateOurbrenOcean Force

Pace Collapse Upset

10% probability

If Tough Date fails to handle the step up in class and fades dramatically

The front-runner's limitations are exposed against stronger opposition, creating a scramble where any of the hold-up horses can capitalize. Miss Mambo or Ocean Force could sneak through at big prices in a messy finish.

Miss MamboOcean ForceOurbrenLamlash

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Tough Date could steal this if he gets uncontested lead as expected with no early pace pressure

WATCH

Ourbren needs to overcome tactical disadvantage of sitting behind honest pace with his hold-up style

WATCH

Malakai Kite's running style remains unknown which could be crucial in determining his chances

NOTE

Ocean Force's 140lb weight burden looks punitive for a horse with limited exposed ability

NOTE

Miss Mambo has shown no progress in three starts and appears outclassed in this company

6:52 — Silvershine Turf Services Handicap

1m · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

Lead contested: Silver State v TrioHISTORIC

How it ran

Silver State led, as the map showed.

Silver State won at 9.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Silver StateTrio

Prominent · 3

TewkesburyCrafty BlueHalla Bil Zain

Midfield · 3

FootholdGrand PierAtalanta Mist

Hold Up · 3

Chapman's PeakGlasgow KissArmstrong

Silver State and Trio are both confirmed front-runners who will contest the early pace, ensuring an honest gallop from the start. With both pace-setters carrying 135lbs and 133lbs respectively, they're likely to soften each other up through the middle sections of this 1m contest on good to firm ground. The sustained pace will create a strong test of stamina in the final 2f, with the race likely to develop into a sprint finish between horses that have conserved energy. This pace scenario strongly favours hold-up horses and patient tactics, as the early leaders will have done the donkey work.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

60% probability

If Silver State and Trio engage in their expected pace duel through the first 6f

The sustained gallop will set up perfectly for the hold-up brigade to sweep past the tiring leaders in the final furlong. Armstrong and Chapman's Peak, both proven over the trip with strong finishing kicks, will benefit most from this tactical setup.

ArmstrongChapman's PeakGrand PierGlasgow Kiss

Front-Runners Collapse Early

25% probability

If both Silver State and Trio go too fast early and crack before the 2f pole

The pace will completely fall apart, turning this into a messy tactical affair where prominent racers can dictate terms. Crafty Blue and Tewkesbury will be perfectly positioned to capitalise on the pace collapse and control the finish.

Crafty BlueHalla Bil ZainTewkesburyFoothold

One Pace-Setter Survives

10% probability

If either Silver State or Trio gets first run on their rival and kicks clear

The surviving front-runner will have stolen a march on the field and proven too strong for the closers. Silver State's recent form edge gives him the better chance of executing this front-running strategy successfully.

Silver StateTrioArmstrongCrafty Blue

Moderate Pace Suits All

5% probability

If both front-runners show unexpected restraint and settle into a steady rhythm

The race becomes a level playing field where class and current form become the deciding factors rather than tactics. This neutralises the tactical angles and brings multiple running styles into contention.

Chapman's PeakArmstrongSilver StateCrafty Blue

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Silver State and Trio must be monitored closely in the opening 2f - if they go suicidally fast, the race will fall apart completely

WATCH

Armstrong carries significant market confidence on his second handicap start but any signs of ring rustiness could derail his chances

NOTE

Tewkesbury's jumping from the stalls is crucial given his slow start last time in a tactical race like this

WATCH

Chapman's Peak faces a fitness test after 170 days off but Jamie Spencer's booking suggests strong stable confidence

NOTE

The hold-up horses Grand Pier, Foothold and Glasgow Kiss need the predicted strong pace to materialise to show their best

7:22 — Try Unibet's New Racing Betbuilder Handicap (Div I)

1m · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Rating likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Fact Or Fable led; the map had Rating in front.

Galaxy Wonder won at 1.83 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Rating

Prominent · 2

Fact Or FableEye Of The Water

Midfield · 3

Dappled LightAlways FearlessOasis Sunrise

Hold Up · 3

Galaxy WonderPitneyMy Ambition

My Ambition appears the most likely pace-setter given his front-running second at Lingfield and triple C&D winning record, with Rating and Eye Of The Water potentially joining him in the early positions. With limited early pace in this handicap field, the tempo should be sustainable rather than fierce, allowing the leaders to dictate terms through measured fractions. The lack of genuine speed horses means those who can get into contention early will have a significant tactical advantage, making this a race that strongly favours prominent runners and front-runners over hold-up horses who rely on a strong gallop.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dominates

45% probability

If My Ambition or Rating establish an uncontested lead and maintain steady fractions

The leader dictates comfortable splits and has enough left to repel late challengers on this sharp Bath track. Hold-up horses struggle to make up ground against the modest pace and rails-to-stands kick.

My AmbitionRatingPitneyGalaxy Wonder

Prominent Battle

30% probability

If Rating and Eye Of The Water press My Ambition early, creating a three-way speed duel

The increased early pace stretches the field and sets up the race for a closer who can find the right passage through. Those who can travel just behind the speed battle are perfectly positioned to strike.

PitneyGalaxy WonderAlways FearlessOasis Sunrise

Late Surge Prevails

15% probability

If the early pace collapses completely with My Ambition going too slow through the middle stages

The race becomes a sprint finish where class and recent form matter most over track position. Horses with tactical speed from midfield can quicken past tiring leaders.

Galaxy WonderAlways FearlessDappled LightMy Ambition

Outsider Ambush

10% probability

If the handicapper has been overly harsh on the market leaders and an unconsidered runner finds improvement

A horse returning from a break or stepping up significantly on recent form capitalizes on a soft pace scenario. The winner emerges from an unexpected source at rewarding odds.

Dappled LightFact Or FableOasis SunriseEye Of The Water

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

My Ambition breaking smartly and establishing an easy lead could set up an unassailable front-running victory

WATCH

Rating settling worse than expected would remove a key pace element and make the race even more tactical

WATCH

Galaxy Wonder traveling strongly into the straight after his recent progressive AW form suggests continued improvement

NOTE

Dappled Light's early positioning will reveal whether the long break has affected his usual hold-up racing style

NOTE

Always Fearless showing his recent Wolverhampton sharpness in the preliminaries after disappointing subsequent runs

7:52 — Try Unibet's New Racing Betbuilder Handicap (Div II)

1m · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Weston Court to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Judge Frank and Weston Court led, as the map showed.

Eutropia won at 3.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Weston Court

Prominent · 2

KevJudge Frank

Midfield · 3

EutropiaHavana TobouggalooToo Much Trevor

Hold Up · 3

Study UpAnnexationAjrad

Weston Court is the sole confirmed front-runner and should get an uncontested lead with Judge Frank and Kev the only prominent runners likely to track him. The lack of early pace will create a sustainable tempo through the middle sections, allowing the hold-up horses (Study Up, Annexation, Ajrad, Havana Tobouggaloo, Too Much Trevor, Eutropia) to get into contention turning for home. This controlled pace strongly favours closers who can quicken off a solid tempo, as the leaders will have plenty left for the finish but won't have built an unassailable advantage.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Pace Favours Closers

55% probability

If Weston Court gets an easy lead and sustainable fractions...

The hold-up horses get perfect conditions to close with quickening pace over the final 2f. Annexation and Eutropia benefit most from being able to unleash finishing kicks off the steady gallop.

AnnexationEutropiaStudy UpAjrad

Front Runner Dominates

25% probability

If Weston Court builds decisive advantage and stays on strongly...

The lack of early pressure allows him to control completely and kick clear when challenged. Judge Frank may chase him home but can't match the sustained drive of the leader.

Weston CourtJudge FrankKevAnnexation

Prominent Duo Take Over

12% probability

If Judge Frank and Kev press Weston Court from early stages...

The increased tempo burns off the front-runner's finishing kick and sets up the race for horses tracking the pace. Judge Frank's recent form edge gives him slight advantage over Kev.

Judge FrankKevAnnexationEutropia

Outsider Strikes Late

8% probability

If the pace collapses completely in the final furlong...

A horse with a big finishing kick from the back exploits the stop-start nature. Study Up or Too Much Trevor could benefit from the chaotic finish despite their recent poor form.

Study UpToo Much TrevorHavana TobouggalooAjrad

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if Weston Court gets pressed early by Judge Frank or Kev - could compromise his stamina reserves for the finish

WATCH

Monitor Havana Tobouggaloo's market support given her 163-day absence and stable change to Zoe Hawkins

NOTE

Check if Study Up shows early alertness with the headgear applied after his recent disappointing efforts

WATCH

Observe Too Much Trevor's starting position - his poor fresh record makes fitness a major concern

NOTE

Watch for Annexation travelling kindly in the rear group as sign of his recent revival continuing

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 17 April 2026.

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