Archive›Bath · 27 April 2026

Bath

27 April 2026 · 7 races

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2:00 — Download The Fairplay App Apprentice Handicap

1m3½f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Endofastorm likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Endofastorm and Bohemian Breeze led, as the map showed.

Moon Over The Sea won at 3.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Endofastorm

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 5

KnightmareMoon Over The SeaMarinakisMy O MyItsgottobefun

Hold Up · 2

Bohemian BreezeQaaeadd

Endofastorm is the only confirmed front-runner and will set a sustainable pace without pressure from the early stages. The remaining seven runners all show hold-up tendencies, creating a scenario where the pace-setter gets an easy lead into the home straight. With good to firm ground suiting Bath's downhill finish, the lack of pace pressure means Endofastorm can dictate terms and save energy for a strong finish. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners and early pace-setters who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will emerge when seven hold-up horses converge in the final two furlongs.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Lead Holds

60% probability

If Endofastorm gets an easy early lead without harassment from the field

The pace-setter conserves energy through soft fractions and has enough left to repel late challenges down Bath's demanding hill. Hold-up horses get bunched up behind and struggle to make up the ground on good to firm going.

EndofastormMoon Over The SeaBohemian BreezeQaaeadd

Late Surge Prevails

25% probability

If the slow pace allows multiple hold-up horses to unleash finishing kicks simultaneously

The lack of early pace means several closers arrive with one devastating run, overwhelming the tiring leader. Class and finishing speed become decisive factors in a bunched finish.

Bohemian BreezeMoon Over The SeaQaaeaddMarinakis

Traffic Chaos Benefits

10% probability

If the field gets severely bunched turning for home with multiple horses looking for racing room

Several fancied runners get hampered in the melee while one or two find clear passage to capitalize. The race becomes more about luck and position than ability.

ItsgottobefunKnightmareMy O MyMarinakis

Shock Outsider Strikes

5% probability

If the obvious contenders underperform or encounter trouble in running

A lesser-fancied runner with fresh conditions or improved fitness takes advantage of a moderate pace and weak competition. Recent course experience or stable confidence proves crucial.

My O MyKnightmareItsgottobefunQaaeadd

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Endofastorm could steal this if getting uncontested fractions given his Bath course record and lack of pace pressure

WATCH

Traffic problems are inevitable when seven hold-up horses converge in the home straight on Bath's narrow track

NOTE

Moon Over The Sea's recent AW form translating to turf with only 17 days since last run

WATCH

Several apprentice jockeys could struggle with tactical positioning in a slowly-run race requiring split-second decisions

NOTE

Good to firm ground conditions favour horses with proven turf form over recent AW specialists making the switch

2:30 — Silvershine Turf Services Handicap

1m2f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Rating likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Party Island and Rating and Bobby Dassler led, as the map showed.

Party Island won at 3.75 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Rating

Prominent · 1

Bobby Dassler

Midfield · 3

Party IslandMoby QuickPaps Of Jura

Hold Up · 2

RaintownThapa Vc

Rating sits as the lone prominent runner with Bobby Dassler potentially joining him, creating a sustainable pace without early pressure. The remaining five runners - Party Island, Thapa Vc, Raintown, Moby Quick, and Paps Of Jura - all adopt hold-up tactics, setting up a race where the leaders can dictate terms. With such a heavy concentration of hold-up horses, Rating can control the tempo and kick clear when the backmarkers are still organizing their challenges. This pace dynamic strongly favours the early positioned horses who can avoid traffic and time their moves effectively.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Rating Controls Tempo

45% probability

If Rating and Bobby Dassler establish a comfortable early lead without pressure from the hold-up brigade.

Rating can dictate a steady pace before quickening, while the packed field of hold-up horses creates traffic problems in the straight. The early leaders benefit from a clear run while the backmarkers struggle for racing room.

RatingBobby DasslerParty IslandThapa Vc

Hold-Up Horse Charges

30% probability

If the early pace becomes genuinely strong and sets up the race for a closer to pick off tired leaders.

Party Island or Thapa Vc can capitalize on their proven class and finishing kicks to sweep past weakening front-runners. The experienced campaigners have the tactical speed to navigate through traffic when gaps appear.

Party IslandThapa VcRatingMoby Quick

Raintown Resurgence

15% probability

If Raintown's 88-day absence proves beneficial and he shows renewed vigor off his reduced mark.

Despite the long layoff, his class on his day could see him produce a bold performance when the others have shown their limitations. The drop in weights and fresh legs might prove decisive in a slowly-run affair.

RaintownParty IslandRatingThapa Vc

Pace Collapses Completely

10% probability

If Rating goes too slow early and the race becomes a sprint finish where any horse can win.

The lack of natural pace setters creates a messy finale where track position and luck in running becomes paramount. Moby Quick or Bobby Dassler could benefit from being closer to the pace when the sprint develops.

Moby QuickBobby DasslerPaps Of JuraRating

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Rating must be watched for market support as the lone pace-setter in a race perfectly set up for his front-running style.

WATCH

Party Island deserves close attention given his solid recent form and proven ability to finish strongly from off the pace.

WATCH

Track positioning will be crucial in the straight as five hold-up horses converge simultaneously on the leaders.

NOTE

Raintown's market position after his long absence will indicate connections' confidence in his current wellbeing.

NOTE

The pace through the early stages will determine if this becomes a tactical crawl or genuine test of stamina.

3:00 — Silvershine Turf Services Support Bath Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)

5½f · Good · CLS4 · 8 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

3:30 — Mark Futcher Half-Century Handicap

5f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Alkuwarrior to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Alvin and Solar Invincible and Guernsey Angel and Alkuwarrior led, as the map showed.

Alvin won at 3.75 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Alkuwarrior

Prominent · 4

Saucy JaneGuernsey AngelDuskauraSolar Invincible

Midfield · 2

ArtistaLondon Is Blue

Hold Up · 3

Comic StripAlvinAngel Numbers

Alkuwarrior will lead uncontested from the start, setting a comfortable pace over this sprint trip. Four horses - Saucy Jane, Duskaura, Solar Invincible and Guernsey Angel - will fight for prominent positions behind the leader, creating congestion and potential traffic problems turning into the straight. The hold-up horses Comic Strip, Angel Numbers, Artista, London Is Blue and Alvin will need clear runs in the final two furlongs to deploy their finishing kicks. This race shape strongly favours the front-runner and prominent racers who can secure clear racing room, as the hold-up brigade face significant traffic concerns with seven runners needing late gaps.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dominates

45% probability

If Alkuwarrior gets an uncontested lead and maintains stamina

The leader gets first run on his rivals while the prominent pack squabble behind, with hold-up horses trapped in traffic turning for home. Alkuwarrior's 252-day absence becomes irrelevant as tactical position trumps fitness concerns.

AlkuwarriorSolar InvincibleSaucy JaneDuskaura

Prominent Pack Prevails

30% probability

If the prominent runners sort themselves out without serious interference

Solar Invincible and Saucy Jane get clear runs from their forward positions while Alkuwarrior weakens and the hold-up horses get caught in traffic. Recent course winner Solar Invincible benefits from proven track form and cheekpieces.

Solar InvincibleSaucy JaneDuskauraGuernsey Angel

Hold-Up Hero Finds Gap

18% probability

If the prominent runners create enough pace to set up a strong finish

Comic Strip finds the rail run that transforms his AW form to turf, with Alvin benefiting from his proven 5f speed despite the wide draw creating early positioning problems. The sustained pace exposes stamina doubts in the front division.

Comic StripAlvinAngel NumbersLondon Is Blue

Pace Collapses Early

7% probability

If Alkuwarrior goes too fast early or the prominent runners fail to pressure

The race becomes a sprint from the 2f marker, suiting closers who normally need more pace but can now use raw speed. London Is Blue's Brighton wins become relevant as he gets the fast-finishing scenario his turf form suggests he needs.

London Is BlueAngel NumbersArtistaComic Strip

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Traffic nightmare developing 2f out as Comic Strip, Angel Numbers, Artista and London Is Blue all need the same inside gaps

WATCH

Alkuwarrior's market moves given 252-day absence - any support suggests stable confidence despite long break

WATCH

Solar Invincible's early positioning crucial as cheekpieces wearer needs to avoid getting shuffled back from prominent spot

NOTE

Pat Cosgrave's tactics on Guernsey Angel - whether he drops her in or uses her early speed for prominent position

NOTE

Comic Strip finding racing room on the rail as his hold-up style needs the perfect run to overcome traffic concerns

4:00 — Bet Now With fairplaybet.co.uk Handicap

5f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

So Smart to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Solar Edge and Toolatetonegotiate led; the map had So Smart in front.

Solar Edge won at 8.50 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

So Smart

Prominent · 1

Solar Edge

Midfield · 3

ToolatetonegotiateThe Feminine UrgeDiamondsinthesand

Hold Up · 2

The Thames BoatmanMoe's Legacy

So Smart will take the field along as the only confirmed front-runner, with Solar Edge likely to track him in second through the early stages. With limited pace pressure from just these two early leaders, So Smart can dictate comfortable fractions without being harried. The five hold-up horses (The Thames Boatman, Moe's Legacy, Toolatetonegotiate, The Feminine Urge, Diamondsinthesand) will settle behind and rely on a finishing kick over this minimum trip. This tactical setup clearly favours the front-runner and prominent racer who can avoid traffic problems and control the tempo.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

So Smart Controls Tempo

45% probability

If So Smart gets an easy lead without early pressure from Solar Edge

So Smart can dictate steady fractions and have enough left to resist late challenges, while Solar Edge benefits from the perfect tracking position. The hold-up horses face the usual 5f problem of limited time to make up ground from the rear.

So SmartSolar EdgeThe Feminine UrgeMoe's Legacy

Contested Early Pace

30% probability

If Solar Edge or another runner pushes So Smart from the start

Both early leaders could weaken in the final furlong, opening the door for the best finishers to sweep past. The Feminine Urge and Moe's Legacy have the class to capitalize on a strong pace collapse.

The Feminine UrgeMoe's LegacyThe Thames BoatmanToolatetonegotiate

Hold-up Horses Traffic

15% probability

If the field bunches up turning for home with multiple hold-up runners seeking room

Several of the back-markers will find trouble in running, allowing the leaders to maintain their advantage. So Smart's front-running position becomes even more valuable when others are shuffling for racing room.

So SmartSolar EdgeThe Thames BoatmanDiamondsinthesand

Pace Collapse Late

10% probability

If So Smart goes too fast early or Solar Edge forces a strong gallop

The entire field could come back to the hold-up horses in a sprint finish. Diamondsinthesand's light weight and The Thames Boatman's second-place finish here last year become crucial factors.

DiamondsinthesandThe Thames BoatmanToolatetonegotiateThe Feminine Urge

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

So Smart could get an uncontested lead if Solar Edge doesn't engage early, making the front-runner very hard to peg back

WATCH

Solar Edge's long absence of 145 days creates serious fitness doubts despite his prominent running style suiting the race shape

NOTE

The Feminine Urge showed promising signs on stable debut and could improve significantly for Grace Harris second time out

WATCH

Multiple hold-up horses could create a traffic jam in the home straight with limited room for five runners to make their moves

NOTE

Diamondsinthesand's 18lb weight advantage over the top-weighted runners gives her a significant pull at the weights

4:30 — Signs Express Handicap

1m · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Lead contested: Eupator v Special GhaiyyathHISTORIC

How it ran

Special Ghaiyyath led, as the map showed.

Candonomore won at 2.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

EupatorSpecial Ghaiyyath

Prominent · 1

Aspull

Midfield · 2

NakaahaHappy Banner

Hold Up · 2

CandonomoreCaledonian

Eupator and Special Ghaiyyath will contest the early lead in this small field, with both confirmed front runners likely to ensure an honest gallop from the start. The pace should be solid rather than frantic given only two natural leaders, allowing the quartet of hold-up horses (Happy Banner, Candonomore, Nakaaha, Caledonian) to get into contention. With most of the field preferring to come from off the pace, this sets up ideally for the prominent runners and those with tactical speed to position themselves handy - specifically benefiting horses like Aspull who can race in second or third and strike when the pace-setters weaken.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Pace Collapse Benefits Closers

45% probability

If the two front runners go too hard early and tie each other up

The hold-up horses will have plenty to aim at in the straight with the leaders coming back to them. Candonomore and Nakaaha are perfectly positioned to benefit from this tactical setup.

CandonomoreNakaahaHappy BannerCaledonian

Prominent Runner Strikes

35% probability

If Aspull can track the pace and time his run perfectly

The front two will set it up for something sitting third or fourth to come through. Aspull's prominent style and quality jockey booking suggests he can exploit this position.

AspullSpecial GhaiyyathEupatorCandonomore

Front Runner Survives

12% probability

If Special Ghaiyyath can dictate a measured pace and kick clear

His recent form and change of yard suggests improvement, and controlling the tempo from the front could see him hold on. The lack of early pressure might allow him to conserve energy for a late kick.

Special GhaiyyathEupatorAspullCandonomore

Outsider Ambush

8% probability

If the pace is messy and one of the bigger prices gets first run

Caledonian or Happy Banner could exploit any tactical errors with their hold-up styles. Long absences or stable changes sometimes produce surprise improvers in small competitive handicaps.

CaledonianHappy BannerNakaahaAspull

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if Special Ghaiyyath and Eupator go too fast early - this will set up the race perfectly for the closers

WATCH

Monitor Aspull's market moves as gelded horses returning from breaks can show significant improvement

NOTE

Check Candonomore's position turning in as he's clearly the form horse and will be hard to beat if getting first run

NOTE

Observe if Nakaaha travels better than at Doncaster as she may have been rusty that day

WATCH

Watch for any late money on Caledonian given his low mileage and stable returning him after a long break

5:00 — Signs Express Proudly Support Bath Racecourse Handicap

1m · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Miss Mambo likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Takeitorleaveit and Denby's Dream led; the map had Miss Mambo in front.

Takeitorleaveit won at 3.75 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Miss Mambo

Prominent · 2

Beryl's GirlTakeitorleaveit

Midfield · 2

Arvana BelleMali Star

Hold Up · 2

ZoustellarDenby's Dream

Miss Mambo and the prominent contingent (Beryl's Girl, Arvana Belle, Takeitorleaveit) will contest the early lead, but with only seven runners this creates a measured rather than frantic gallop. The hold-up pair Zoustellar and Denby's Dream will track from the rear, while Mali Star sits midfield. With multiple prominent runners willing to take it on early, the pace should be honest without being suicidal, setting up a staying test over the final two furlongs. This tactical setup clearly favours the hold-up horses who can capitalise on the pace battle ahead of them.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses capitalise

60% probability

If the prominent runners engage in pace pressure from halfway

The early leaders burn each other out in a sustained battle, allowing the patient back-markers to pick up the pieces. Zoustellar and Denby's Dream benefit from their tactical position and finishing kick.

ZoustellarDenby's DreamMali StarMiss Mambo

Prominent tactics prevail

25% probability

If Miss Mambo or Takeitorleaveit establish a soft lead without pressure

The winner dictates terms from the front, keeping enough in reserve to repel late challengers. The hold-up horses are left with too much ground to make up.

Miss MamboTakeitorleaveitArvana BelleBeryl's Girl

Sprint finish develops

10% probability

If the pace becomes pedestrian with all prominent runners checking each other

The race becomes a tactical affair turning into a sprint finish where raw speed trumps stamina. Fresh legs and finishing pace become crucial over tactical positioning.

Denby's DreamTakeitorleaveitZoustellarMiss Mambo

Staying test emerges

5% probability

If genuine end-to-end gallop develops from flag fall

The sustained pace finds out stamina limitations, favouring horses with proven staying ability at the trip. Course specialists and those with mile form come to the fore.

Beryl's GirlArvana BelleMiss MamboMali Star

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Zoustellar's finishing kick if the prominent runners engage early - his hold-up style perfectly suited to capitalise

WATCH

Miss Mambo's early positioning - if she can establish an uncontested lead her C&D form makes her dangerous

NOTE

Takeitorleaveit's market support given his previous C&D success when prominent

WATCH

The pace battle between multiple prominent runners creating opportunities for back-markers

NOTE

Beryl's Girl's fitness after 226 days off despite her promising juvenile form at the venue

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 27 April 2026.

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