Archive›Bath · 29 April 2026

Bath

29 April 2026 · 8 races

✓ Historic — full access

Read from the in-running comments·How often this is right →

4:10 — Bet Now With fairplaybet.co.uk Handicap

5½f · Firm · HCAP · 6 runners

Thecoffeepoddotco to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Silver Wraith led; the map had Thecoffeepoddotco in front.

Silver Wraith won at 4.50 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Thecoffeepoddotco

Prominent · 2

AddarellaSavannah Smiles

Midfield · 1

Correspondence

Hold Up · 2

Silver WraithMoe's Legacy

Thecoffeepoddotco is the sole confirmed front runner and will dictate terms from the rail, likely getting an uncontested lead with Addarella and Savannah Smiles settling just behind in prominent positions. The firm ground and 5½f distance creates a sustainable gallop that won't burn out the early pace. With four of six runners adopting hold-up tactics (Silver Wraith, Moe's Legacy, Correspondence all need cover), the lack of early pressure allows the pace angle to control the race rhythm. This race shape clearly favours front runners and prominent racers who can position close to the pace without having to make up significant ground.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Lead Holds

45% probability

If Thecoffeepoddotco gets soft fractions and isn't pressed early by the prominent runners

The confirmed pace-setter controls the tempo on firm ground over this sharp 5½f trip, with hold-up horses left with too much to do from the back. Thecoffeepoddotco's proven front-running style at this distance becomes decisive when not under pressure.

ThecoffeepoddotcoAddarellaSavannah SmilesSilver Wraith

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If Addarella or Savannah Smiles track the leader closely and time their challenge perfectly

The prominent runners get the ideal trip behind the leader and kick clear when the hold-up brigade are still struggling for racing room. Their tactical positioning proves superior to both the uncontested leader and the deep closers.

AddarellaSavannah SmilesThecoffeepoddotcoSilver Wraith

Late Closer Swoops

15% probability

If the early pace collapses and the firm ground favours sustained finishing kicks

Silver Wraith or Moe's Legacy benefit from a slow early gallop that sets up their preferred finishing kick. The lack of early pace allows them to close the gap despite their hold-up styles.

Silver WraithMoe's LegacyCorrespondenceAddarella

Complete Pace Collapse

10% probability

If Thecoffeepoddotco goes too slowly early and gets swamped by multiple challengers

The race becomes a sprint finish with all six runners converging in the final furlong. The form horses with recent wins get up in a blanket finish despite poor tactical positions.

Moe's LegacySilver WraithSavannah SmilesThecoffeepoddotco

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Thecoffeepoddotco must be watched for any early pressure from Addarella or Savannah Smiles that could compromise the soft lead

WATCH

Correspondence has shown hanging tendencies and may drift right under pressure, potentially interfering with other runners

NOTE

Addarella's settling instructions under new trainer Scott Dixon could determine if she tracks the leader or drops back further

NOTE

Silver Wraith needs significant pace development early to make her hold-up style effective after 202 days off

WATCH

Moe's Legacy running back quickly after just 2 days may show effects of the quick turnaround in the closing stages

4:45 — Download The Fairplay App Now EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (Band D) (EBF Restricted Qualifier) (GBB)

5½f · Firm · CLS5 · 11 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

5:20 — Watch Live Racing On fairplaybet.co.uk "Confined" Handicap (No Win Since The 2025 Flat Turf Season)

5f · Firm · HCAP · 6 runners

Lead contested: Law Of Average v Connie's RoseHISTORIC

How it ran

Law Of Average led, as the map showed.

Law Of Average won at 4.50 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Law Of AverageConnie's Rose

Prominent · 1

Binadham

Midfield · 1

Some Nightmare

Hold Up · 2

Rogue BulletCayman Tai

Law Of Average and Connie's Rose will contest the early lead in this small field, with both confirmed front-runners likely to set a solid gallop over the minimum trip. The firm ground and 5f distance means the pace will be honest from the start, with little room for tactical maneuvering. With only six runners and two natural leaders, the hold-up horses (Cayman Tai, Rogue Bullet, Some Nightmare) will need to be positioned closer than usual to have any chance. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers and horses with early speed, as those settling behind the pace will struggle to make up ground in such a small field over this sharp distance.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runners Battle

45% probability

If Law Of Average and Connie's Rose engage early and maintain strong gallop throughout

The two leaders will set genuine pace that suits their front-running styles, with the winner coming from this pair. Connie's Rose has superior course form with two wins at this track and distance, while Law Of Average drops significantly in grade.

Connie's RoseLaw Of AverageBinadhamSome Nightmare

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If the front-runners go too fast and weaken in final furlong

Binadham can track the early pace from his preferred prominent position and strike when the leaders tire. His recent form shows consistency and the prominent style perfectly suits this scenario with pace collapse ahead.

BinadhamSome NightmareConnie's RoseLaw Of Average

Hold-Up Horse Surprise

15% probability

If the early pace is moderate allowing back-markers to close

Rogue Bullet or Cayman Tai could benefit from a steadier tempo that allows their hold-up style to be effective. The small field means they won't be too far back even from their usual patient tactics.

Rogue BulletCayman TaiBinadhamConnie's Rose

Pace Collapse Special

10% probability

If both front-runners completely fold leaving race wide open

Some Nightmare's veteran experience could prove decisive if the pace setters capitulate completely. His turf record is strong and the light weight would help in a slowly-run finish.

Some NightmareCayman TaiBinadhamRogue Bullet

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Connie's Rose and Law Of Average must be monitored for early pace battle intensity as both need to lead

WATCH

Rogue Bullet's fitness after 187-day absence could be crucial given his hold-up style needs strong finish

NOTE

Binadham's positioning in early stages will indicate if he can bridge gap between leaders and hold-up horses

WATCH

Small field dynamics mean hold-up horses Cayman Tai and Some Nightmare may be closer than usual early

NOTE

Firm going conditions suit most runners but may particularly favor Connie's Rose given her course-and-distance wins

5:50 — Fairplay Daily Price Boosts Handicap

1m2f · Firm · HCAP · 7 runners

Endofastorm likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Endofastorm and Silkies Sib led, as the map showed.

Eutropia won at 3.50 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Endofastorm

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 4

Silkies SibCrafterWhiteley WayChourmo

Hold Up · 2

EutropiaRacing Demon

Endofastorm is the only confirmed front-runner in this 7-runner field and should get an easy lead without pace pressure. With six hold-up horses behind him, the pace will be steady to moderate through the early stages, allowing tactical horses like Eutropia and Silkies Sib to settle well. The lack of early pace means the race will likely become a sprint from the 3f pole when the field closes up behind the leader. This sustainable pace scenario strongly favours horses with a sharp turn of foot who can quicken off steady fractions, giving the edge to late-running types with proven acceleration.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Sustainable Pace Scenario

45% probability

If Endofastorm sets uncontested fractions and the field remains bunched turning for home

The race becomes a test of who has the sharpest kick when the tempo lifts late, suiting horses like Eutropia who thrived off similar pace at Lingfield. Hold-up horses with proven acceleration will have every chance to unleash their finishing speed.

EutropiaSilkies SibChourmoRacing Demon

Leader Gets Away

25% probability

If Endofastorm's 77-day break pays dividends and he maintains momentum when challenged

His two-day turnaround could work in his favour if the pace stays honest, and his runner-up effort here on Monday suggests he's found form. The prominent runner could prove hard to peg back if he kicks clear approaching the final furlong.

EndofastormEutropiaRacing DemonWhiteley Way

Messy Slow Burn

20% probability

If the lack of early pace creates a stop-start rhythm with multiple horses making their moves simultaneously

This tactical affair would favour the most experienced campaigners who can find gaps and time their runs, with Chourmo's class edge potentially telling. Horses drawn poorly or caught in traffic will struggle in a bunched finish.

ChourmoRacing DemonCrafterEutropia

Early Collapse

10% probability

If Endofastorm fails to handle the quick turnaround or doesn't lead as expected

The race would become even more tactical with no obvious leader, creating a crawling pace that could set up any horse with a decent turn of foot. This chaos scenario would be hardest to predict but could suit an improver like Whiteley Way.

Whiteley WaySilkies SibEutropiaChourmo

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if Endofastorm fails to take up the running early, as this would create a leaderless race with unpredictable pace dynamics

WATCH

Monitor Racing Demon's behaviour at the start given his history of bolting to post and missing breaks when returning from breaks

NOTE

Watch how Silkies Sib settles after pulling hard at Leicester, as her ability to relax could determine if she can quicken late

WATCH

Keep an eye on Eutropia's position turning in, as she needs room to unleash her finishing kick and could get trapped in traffic

NOTE

Watch for Chourmo travelling strongly through the race, as his class could tell if he's fresh enough after the 65-day break

6:20 — fairplaybet.co.uk Bet £20 Get £20 Free Bets Handicap

1m · Firm · HCAP · 6 runners

Prodigal Son to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Prodigal Son and Darvel led, as the map showed.

Prodigal Son won at 23.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Prodigal Son

Prominent · 1

Redredrobin

Midfield · 2

Magical MerlinMy Ambition

Hold Up · 2

Signcastle CityDarvel

Prodigal Son is the sole confirmed front runner and will dictate terms from the start, likely getting an uncontested lead in this small field. With five hold-up horses (Signcastle City, Magical Merlin, Darvel, My Ambition) and only one prominent runner (Redredrobin), the pace will be sustainable rather than testing. The tactical setup creates a patient race where the speed will only quicken late, but the lack of early pressure on Prodigal Son means he could steal a march if allowed easy fractions. This race shape strongly favours the front runner and any horse that can get a forward position early.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Runner Wins

45% probability

If Prodigal Son gets soft early fractions and kicks clear

The lone leader dictates comfortable splits and has enough left to resist the late challengers. His 140-day break is negated by the tactical advantage of an uncontested lead.

Prodigal SonMy AmbitionSigncastle CityMagical Merlin

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If Redredrobin settles prominently behind Prodigal Son

The 9yo course winner uses her forward position to strike when the pace quickens, benefiting from race fitness and the tactical edge of tracking the leader. Hold-up horses struggle to make up the ground in time.

RedredrobinProdigal SonMy AmbitionSigncastle City

Strong Closer Prevails

15% probability

If the pace becomes genuinely testing mid-race

My Ambition's proven course form and Hollie Doyle's tactical nous see him time his run perfectly from the back. His recent AW form translates well and he benefits from the weight relief.

My AmbitionSigncastle CityRedredrobinDarvel

Pace Collapse Suits All

10% probability

If Prodigal Son sets crawling fractions throughout

The race becomes a sprint finish where any horse can win, but Magical Merlin's proven ability at the trip when fresh gives her the edge. The slow pace negates positional advantages completely.

Magical MerlinDarvelProdigal SonMy Ambition

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Prodigal Son could steal this if allowed to bowl along at his own pace without any early pressure from the field

WATCH

Redredrobin's fitness after 293 days off - if she's ready, her prominent style and course form make her very dangerous

NOTE

My Ambition's weight advantage and Hollie Doyle's tactical skill could be decisive if the race develops into a proper test

WATCH

Magical Merlin bouncing back from poor AW reappearance - trainer Harry Charlton's runners often improve significantly second time out

NOTE

The firm going suits most runners but watch for any horse that gets outpaced if Prodigal Son quickens the tempo

6:55 — Fairplay Handicap

1m · Firm · HCAP · 7 runners

Lady Lauren likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Lady Lauren led, as the map showed.

Mohmentous won at 6.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Lady Lauren

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 4

Dash Of ClassSkyolaireMohmentousPalazzo Ducale

Hold Up · 2

Atalanta MistAplaceinthesun

Lady Lauren is the sole natural front-runner in this field and should get an uncontested lead, setting a comfortable tempo without early pressure. With six hold-up horses behind her, the pace will be steady early before intensifying from the 3f pole as the field closes in. The tactical shape strongly favours front-running Lady Lauren who can dictate terms, while the hold-up horses face the challenge of making up ground against a horse with first run on firm ground. This race setup clearly benefits the early pace-setter over the large pack of hold-up runners.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Lady Lauren Wires Field

65% probability

If Lady Lauren breaks cleanly and establishes her lead without interference.

She controls the tempo completely and has enough in reserve to hold off late challengers who face traffic problems in a bunched finish. The 227-day break works in her favour as she returns fresh with previous course form.

Lady LaurenDash Of ClassMohmentous

Strong Late Surge

20% probability

If Lady Lauren sets too strong a pace or ties up in the final furlong.

The hold-up horses get ideal pace to aim at and Dash Of Class or Mohmentous time their runs perfectly. The bunched nature creates opportunities for the best finishers.

Dash Of ClassMohmentousAtalanta MistLady Lauren

Tactical Breakdown

10% probability

If Lady Lauren is headed early or doesn't lead as expected.

The pace collapses with no genuine leader, creating a messy tactical affair that suits horses who can adapt. Experience becomes crucial in a slowly-run race with a sprint finish.

SkyolaireAplaceinthesunLady LaurenPalazzo Ducale

Moderate Pace Suits

5% probability

If Lady Lauren sets steady fractions but multiple horses challenge simultaneously.

The even tempo allows several hold-up horses to deliver strong finishing kicks together. Class and current form separate the contenders in a competitive finish.

Atalanta MistDash Of ClassMohmentousLady Lauren

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Lady Lauren's break from the gates is crucial - any tardiness destroys her tactical advantage and race-winning chance

WATCH

Monitor the early pace Lady Lauren sets - if too fast she becomes vulnerable to late closers in final furlong

WATCH

Watch for traffic problems in the straight with six hold-up horses likely bunched together seeking racing room

NOTE

Skyolaire's fitness after 197 days off will show early - any signs of rustiness rule out winning chances

NOTE

Dash Of Class needs clear running room given his hold-up style and recent improved handicap form

7:30 — Watch Live Racing On fairplaybet.co.uk Handicap (Div I)

1m · Firm · HCAP · 10 runners

Fact Or Fable to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Man Is King and Huntly Lodge led; the map had Fact Or Fable in front.

Brinton won at 5.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Fact Or Fable

Prominent · 4

BrintonScenarioMan Is KingHuntly Lodge

Midfield · 2

Havana's DreamFrontpagemoos

Hold Up · 3

Simba's GiftHavana ClubToo Much Trevor

Fact Or Fable will lead unchallenged early, setting a sustainable gallop on this firm ground over Bath's demanding 1m circuit. Behind him, Brinton, Scenario, Man Is King, and Huntly Lodge will jostle for prominent positions, creating congestion and tactical complications approaching the home turn. The real danger emerges 2-3 furlongs out when the hold-up horses—Havana Club, Simba's Gift, Too Much Trevor, and others—launch their challenges simultaneously into limited racing room. This pace setup strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can secure good positions early and avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will compromise late-running horses.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Sustains

45% probability

If Fact Or Fable maintains his lead without serious early pressure and the pace stays honest.

The 9-year-old veteran uses his C&D experience and tactical advantage to hold off late challenges, while prominent runners like Brinton and Scenario benefit from tracking the solid gallop. Hold-up horses get caught in traffic as multiple runners converge late.

Fact Or FableBrintonScenarioMan Is King

Prominent Battle

30% probability

If the quartet of prominent runners engage in early tactical warfare behind Fact Or Fable.

The increased pace stretches the field and creates gaps for the better hold-up horses to exploit, particularly Havana Club who won over C&D last year. Scenario's recent C&D winner form gives her the edge in a sustained drive.

ScenarioHavana ClubBrintonSimba's Gift

Hold-Up Horse Traffic

15% probability

If the pace collapses early and becomes a sprint finish with multiple hold-up runners converging.

Havana Club's class advantage shows as he navigates the inevitable congestion better than rivals, while Too Much Trevor and Simba's Gift get blocked at crucial moments. The tactical mess favours experience and racing luck.

Havana ClubToo Much TrevorHuntly LodgeFrontpagemoos

Maiden Breakthrough

10% probability

If the exposed handicappers underperform and competitive maidens find improvement.

Huntly Lodge or Too Much Trevor finally break their maiden status in a race where the favorites fail to fire on firm ground. The 56-day break works in Huntly Lodge's favor as the lesser-exposed runner finds significant improvement.

Huntly LodgeToo Much TrevorSimba's GiftMan Is King

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for traffic chaos 2f out as Havana Club, Simba's Gift, Too Much Trevor and Frontpagemoos all need racing room simultaneously

WATCH

Monitor if Brinton and Scenario engage too early with each other, potentially setting up the race for Fact Or Fable's sustained kick

NOTE

Check Fact Or Fable's jumping from the gates as his early lead is crucial to avoiding the prominent traffic behind him

WATCH

Observe Huntly Lodge's position turning for home as his 7f recent runs suggest he needs the longer trip to show his best

NOTE

Watch for Scenario's trademark late surge as she attempts to repeat her recent C&D winning tactics under Billy Loughnane

8:00 — Watch Live Racing On fairplaybet.co.uk Handicap (Div II)

1m · Firm · HCAP · 9 runners

Lead contested: Grand Harbour v Weston CourtHISTORIC

How it ran

Weston Court led, as the map showed.

Oasis Sunrise won at 3.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Grand HarbourWeston Court

Prominent · 2

Havana MojitoEye Of The Water

Midfield · 2

StoneacreClipsham Noble

Hold Up · 3

Redhot WhisperOasis SunriseBaynoona

Grand Harbour and Weston Court will contest the early lead in this small field, with both having confirmed front-running styles but neither possessing the tactical speed to get away from the field. The honest early pace they set will suit the prominent runners like Havana Mojito and Eye Of The Water to track just behind, while the hold-up horses face the challenge of finding gaps in a compact field of nine. On firm ground over Bath's straight mile, this setup clearly favours prominent runners who can position close enough to strike when the leaders tire, rather than hold-up horses who need more pace collapse than this race will provide.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Tracker Strikes

45% probability

If the early pace is honest but sustainable through halfway

The prominent runners get first run on the tiring leaders while hold-up horses are still making ground from too far back. Eye Of The Water and Havana Mojito are perfectly placed to capitalize when Grand Harbour and Weston Court begin to weaken.

Eye Of The WaterHavana MojitoBaynoonaOasis Sunrise

Hold-Up Horses Prevail

30% probability

If the two leaders go too fast early and collapse dramatically

The strong early pace sets up perfectly for the closers who can pick up the pieces in the final two furlongs. Oasis Sunrise gets her preferred scenario while Baynoona can use her sole course and distance win as a blueprint.

Oasis SunriseBaynoonaRedhot WhisperClipsham Noble

Leader Gets Away

15% probability

If Grand Harbour or Weston Court gets an uncontested lead and slows the pace

The front-runner can dictate terms and kick clear when they choose, leaving the field chasing shadows. Grand Harbour's better recent form gives him the edge over Weston Court who has been struggling.

Grand HarbourWeston CourtEye Of The WaterHavana Mojito

Longshot Surprise

10% probability

If the main contenders neutralize each other through positioning battles

The race becomes messy with horses getting in each other's way, allowing an outsider to slip through. Redhot Whisper showed some form last time while Clipsham Noble could benefit from the move to new connections.

Redhot WhisperClipsham NobleStoneacreGrand Harbour

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Weston Court could set a suicidal pace as he desperately seeks to bounce back from his 25-length defeat here 12 days ago

WATCH

Havana Mojito faces a fitness test after 176 days off but his trainer John Gallagher has a good strike rate of 1 from 6 recently

NOTE

Grand Harbour's front-running style could be crucial if he can get first run on his rivals given the small field size

WATCH

Oasis Sunrise needs the leaders to go fast enough early to set up her hold-up style on ground that clearly suits her best

NOTE

Eye Of The Water's multiple Bath placings make him the most reliable each-way option in this competitive handicap

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 29 April 2026.

Tonight’s free races, in your inbox

Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.

One email a day. Unsubscribe whenever. Every race, every meeting →