1:45 — Lee Shaughnessy 60th Birthday Amateur Jockeys' Handicap
1m · Good · HCAP · 11 runners
Alazwar likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Man Is King led; the map had Alazwar in front.
Man Is King won at 9.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Alazwar
Prominent · 1
Man Is King
Midfield · 6
AmathusKing Of The DanceCiotogNever DreamWrist ArtScarfo
Hold Up · 3
Pay AttentionRomanovichSaturnalia
Alazwar sits as the sole confirmed front-runner with Man Is King the only other prominent runner, setting up a potentially uncontested lead scenario. With nine hold-up horses behind this thin pace, Alazwar can dictate fractions without early pressure and kick clear when the field closes late. The lack of pace pressure means the leaders can conserve energy for a strong finish while the hold-up brigade faces a wall of traffic in the straight. This race shape strongly favours the front-running and prominent runners who can secure clear racing room.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Front Running
65% probability
If Alazwar leads unchallenged through moderate early fractions
Alazwar controls the tempo completely and has enough left to repel late challengers, while Man Is King benefits from the prominent position. The mass of hold-up horses struggle to make ground against horses who've conserved energy up front.
AlazwarMan Is KingRomanovichPay Attention
B
Pace Collapse Sprint
20% probability
If both Alazwar and Man Is King go too steady early
The race becomes a sprint finish where the classier hold-up horses can unleash their turn of foot. Pay Attention and Romanovich have the highest ratings to capitalize when the pace collapses completely.
Pay AttentionRomanovichKing Of The DanceCiotog
C
Traffic Nightmare Scenario
10% probability
If the field bunches up turning for home with leaders still there
Alazwar maintains his advantage while most hold-up horses get shuffled back in traffic problems. Only those with the best positions like King Of The Dance can thread through for minor placings.
AlazwarKing Of The DanceNever DreamCiotog
D
Early Pace Duel
5% probability
If Man Is King or another runner challenges Alazwar early
The early pace becomes too strong and both leaders weaken, allowing the best of the hold-up horses to sweep past. Romanovich's recent win and Pay Attention's class edge them forward.
RomanovichPay AttentionCiotogNever Dream
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch if Man Is King or any other runner goes with Alazwar early as it could set up completely different race dynamics
WATCH
Watch the break from the stalls as nine hold-up horses could cause early interference and positioning issues
WATCH
Watch Alazwar's early fractions as he could steal an unassailable advantage if allowed to coast
NOTE
Watch Pay Attention for market support given the long absence but clear class edge
NOTE
Watch for scrimmaging in the straight as the hold-up brigade will all be finishing at once
2:15 — Blast Event Hire EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (Band D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)
5f · Good · CLS3 · 13 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
2:50 — Blackmore Building Contractors Handicap
5f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners
Lead contested: Ruby's Profit v Angel SharedHISTORIC
How it ran
Regal Envoy and Sturlasson led; the map had Ruby's Profit and Angel Shared in front.
Regal Envoy won at 6.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Ruby's ProfitAngel Shared
Prominent · 3
FideliusSturlassonRegal Envoy
Midfield · 1
Marty Hopkirk
Hold Up · 2
Desert CopMoulin Booj
Ruby's Profit and Angel Shared will contest the early lead with both confirmed front runners committed to dictating from the gate. This honest gallop will stretch the field over 5f at Bath, creating genuine tempo from start to finish. The prominent runners Fidelius, Regal Envoy, Marty Hopkirk and Sturlasson will track the leaders closely, while hold-up horses Moulin Booj and Desert Cop face a tactical disadvantage. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can sit handy behind the pace-setters and strike when the front duo weaken.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Runners Strike
45% probability
If the early pace is genuine between Ruby's Profit and Angel Shared
The leaders will weaken in the final furlong allowing prominent runners with tactical speed to take over. Fidelius and Regal Envoy are perfectly positioned to exploit this scenario with their proven ability to finish strongly from handy positions.
FideliusRegal EnvoyMarty HopkirkSturlasson
B
Front Runner Survives
30% probability
If one of Ruby's Profit or Angel Shared gets first run on their rival
The winner will have enough left to hold off the late challengers having controlled the tempo. Angel Shared's recent Goodwood form suggests she can sustain her effort better than Ruby's Profit who disappointed last time.
Angel SharedRuby's ProfitFideliusRegal Envoy
C
Hold-Up Horses Charge
15% probability
If the early pace is very strong and the field comes back to the closers
Moulin Booj and Desert Cop will have too much ground to make up despite their finishing kicks. The 5f trip at Bath rarely allows for dramatic come-from-behind victories when the pace is honest.
Desert CopMoulin BoojFideliusSturlasson
D
Messy Pace Suits All
10% probability
If Ruby's Profit and Angel Shared go too fast early and tie up badly
The race becomes a lottery with moderate pace allowing any running style to win. This would particularly suit horses like Sturlasson who has tactical speed but lacks the finishing kick of the main contenders.
SturlassonMarty HopkirkDesert CopMoulin Booj
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Ruby's Profit could set unsustainable fractions if taking on Angel Shared too aggressively early which would compromise both leaders
WATCH
Fidelius breaking slowly from the stalls would force him further back than ideal against this confirmed pace
NOTE
Desert Cop being held up too far back early when honest pace likely to stretch the field throughout
WATCH
Angel Shared and Ruby's Profit both missing the break would create false pace and change the entire complexion
NOTE
Moulin Booj getting closer to the pace than usual which would suggest connections expect stronger tempo
3:25 — Pins And Putts Handicap
5f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners
Smooth Silesie to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Over Spiced led; the map had Smooth Silesie in front.
Over Spiced won at 4.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Smooth Silesie
Prominent · 1
Over Spiced
Midfield · 2
Aces WildDiomed Spirit
Hold Up · 2
ToolatetonegotiateTees Aggregates
Smooth Silesie will take this field along at a comfortable tempo from the front, with Over Spiced likely to race prominently in second. With four hold-up horses (Aces Wild, Toolatetonegotiate, Diomed Spirit, Tees Aggregates) content to settle behind, there's minimal early pressure on the leader. The pace will be honest but not searingly quick, setting up a tactical finish where positioning matters more than pure speed. This measured gallop strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can dictate terms without being harassed.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Smooth Leader Dominance
45% probability
If Smooth Silesie gets an uncontested lead and kicks clear turning for home
The front-runner exploits the lack of early pace pressure to control the race completely, building an unassailable advantage. Hold-up horses find too much to do against a horse who has conserved energy by setting his own fractions.
If Over Spiced tracks the leader perfectly and strikes decisively in the final furlong
The speedy filly uses her proven 5f handicap winning ability to time her challenge perfectly from her ideal stalking position. Her recent return run sharpness gives her the edge over rustier rivals in a driving finish.
Over SpicedSmooth SilesieAces WildToolatetonegotiate
C
Hold-up Horse Surge
15% probability
If the early pace collapses completely and becomes crawling
The moderate early gallop turns into a sprint finish where the best closing kick wins rather than tactical positioning. Aces Wild's recent good form and proven 5f ability could see him time his run to perfection.
If Smooth Silesie fails to lead or gets headed early by Over Spiced creating chaos
The anticipated pace scenario falls apart when the expected leader doesn't perform his role, creating a messy tactical affair. This opens the door for an outsider like Diomed Spirit to benefit from the confusion at generous odds.
Diomed SpiritTees AggregatesOver SpicedAces Wild
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
If Smooth Silesie doesn't take up the early running as expected, the entire pace dynamic collapses
WATCH
Over Spiced's behaviour in the early stages after racing too freely last time will determine her chances
NOTE
The positioning of the four hold-up horses turning for home - they need to be within striking distance to matter
WATCH
Harry Davies on Smooth Silesie getting the fractions right - too slow early could backfire, too fast plays into hold-up hands
NOTE
Any market moves for Diomed Spirit given his outsider status but proven 5f ability at this track
4:00 — Carers Centre Charity Handicap (Bath Summer Sprint Series Qualifier)
5½f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners
Sands Of Seve likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Sands Of Seve led, as the map showed.
Miss Magic Dragon won at 9.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Sands Of Seve
Prominent · 3
TakincareofbiznessRogue RebellionCougar Force
Midfield · 3
Miss Magic DragonBaileys OntherocksMiss Ayala
Hold Up · 3
Ken BruleeCape ToronadaMagnificent Mel
Sands Of Seve is the sole confirmed front runner and will dictate terms from the rail, likely getting an uncontested lead in this small field. The prominent runners Takincareofbizness, Cougar Force, and Rogue Rebellion will track behind but none are aggressive pace pressers, allowing Sands Of Seve to control the tempo. With six hold-up horses including Baileys Ontherocks, Miss Ayala, Ken Brulee, Cape Toronada, and Magnificent Mel sitting at the back, there's a clear pace divide that will create a sustainable gallop followed by a cavalry charge finish. This race shape strongly favours the hold-up horses who will benefit from the even tempo and get first run on the leaders turning for home.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
55% probability
If Sands Of Seve sets a steady pace without pressure from the prominent group
The backmarkers get the perfect setup with even fractions before unleashing their finishing kicks, while the front group becomes sitting ducks. Baileys Ontherocks and Miss Ayala are perfectly positioned to exploit this tactical advantage.
If one of the prominent runners applies more pressure than expected, creating a stronger gallop
Takincareofbizness or Rogue Rebellion capitalize on their forward positions while the hold-up horses find the pace too strong to reel in. The increased tempo plays to horses already handy rather than those needing to make up ground.
TakincareofbiznessRogue RebellionSands Of SeveCougar Force
C
Front Runner Holds On
12% probability
If Sands Of Seve gets very soft fractions and the hold-up horses leave their runs too late
The leader maintains enough in reserve to repel late challenges, benefiting from Robert Cowell's training and Harry Davies knowing the tactical situation. The closers get there too late despite the setup.
Sands Of SeveTakincareofbiznessMagnificent MelBaileys Ontherocks
D
Pace Collapse Upset
8% probability
If the pace becomes pedestrian early with no one willing to commit
The race becomes a pure sprint from the 2f pole where any horse can win regardless of running style. An outsider with a turn of foot like Miss Magic Dragon could capitalise on the chaos.
Miss Magic DragonCape ToronadaKen BruleeCougar Force
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Sands Of Seve could get very soft fractions as the sole leader with no pressure from behind, making him dangerous despite his front-running vulnerability
WATCH
Takincareofbizness showed good recent form with a second place 6 days ago and his prominent style could catch the hold-up horses napping if they wait too long
NOTE
Miss Magic Dragon's uncertain running style and Pat Cosgrave booking suggests connections expect improvement, making her interesting at a price
WATCH
The large group of hold-up horses could get in each other's way in the finish if they all come with runs simultaneously
NOTE
William Carson riding Cape Toronada despite his poor recent form might indicate the horse is better than his ratings suggest
4:35 — Lee's 60th - Still Horsing Around Handicap (Bath Summer Stayers' Series Qualifier)
1m3½f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners
Mrembo likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Bobby Dassler led; the map had Mrembo in front.
Virtual Hug won at 7.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.
2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Mrembo
Prominent · 1
Bobby Dassler
Midfield · 4
MaywedanceBuck BarrowKnightmareVirtual Hug
Hold Up · 3
BeauneBohemian BreezeTwo Plus Two
Mrembo and Bobby Dassler are the only prominent/forward runners in this field of 9, which creates a sustainable early tempo without pressure. With 7 hold-up horses sitting behind this modest pace, the race will develop into a patient affair with most runners waiting to make their moves. The lack of genuine speed means the race will be run at a searching gallop over this 1m3½f trip on good to firm ground. This tactical setup strongly favours the hold-up horses who can time their challenges late, as the modest early pace will leave plenty in the tank for the closing stages.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Patient Hold-Up Victory
55% probability
If the early pace stays steady with Mrembo and Bobby Dassler not going too hard
The 7 hold-up horses get the perfect setup to unleash finishing kicks over the final 3 furlongs. Class horses like Beaune and Two Plus Two can showcase their stamina and turn of foot when it matters.
BeauneTwo Plus TwoVirtual HugBuck Barrow
B
Forward Runner Survives
25% probability
If Mrembo kicks clear turning for home and the hold-up brigade leave it too late
The 7-year-old gets first run on his rivals and has enough left to hold off the late challengers. Bobby Dassler could also benefit from tracking the leader throughout.
MremboBobby DasslerBeauneKnightmare
C
Tactical Mess Unfolds
12% probability
If both prominent runners go too slow and create a sprint finish from the 2-furlong pole
The race becomes a lottery with positioning crucial as 9 horses converge in a bunched finish. The best-drawn and luckiest in running prevails over pure ability.
KnightmareMaywedanceVirtual HugBuck Barrow
D
Early Pace Collapse
8% probability
If neither Mrembo nor Bobby Dassler show early speed and the field crawls along
Someone from the hold-up ranks is forced to make the running earlier than ideal, disrupting their preferred tactics. This creates an even more extreme test of stamina.
BeauneTwo Plus TwoBohemian BreezeVirtual Hug
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Mrembo could get an uncontested lead with Bobby Dassler's poor recent form, making the favourite very hard to peg back
WATCH
Two Plus Two faces fitness concerns after 347 days off despite his class advantage over this trip
NOTE
Virtual Hug's 0-18 turf record on the Flat makes him hard to trust despite his AW and hurdles ability
WATCH
The 5lb and 3lb claiming jockeys on Mrembo and Bobby Dassler could affect the early pace-setting battle
NOTE
Beaune's 0-9 turf record conflicts with his strong recent AW form over similar distances
5:10 — Droneart Show May 8th Handicap
1m · Good · HCAP · 10 runners
Alice's Influence to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Alice's Influence led, as the map showed.
Sail On Sailor won at 6.00 — was held up, as the map had it.
4 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Alice's Influence
Prominent · 1
Shes Got The Blues
Midfield · 5
Mali StarGrand EchoHenfieldResalahLady Of Clover
Hold Up · 3
Sail On SailorMarvelingPam's Sonnet
Alice's Influence will lead unopposed with only Shes Got The Blues offering any early pace from a prominent position. The rest are hold-up horses who will be content to sit behind what should be a steady, uncontested tempo through the early stages. With 8 of 10 runners preferring to come from off the pace, Alice's Influence can dictate terms without pressure until the business end. This race shape strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will plague the majority hold-up brigade in the straight.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Leader Scores
45% probability
If Alice's Influence maintains her recent improvement and gets the expected soft lead
She can control the race from the front and has already shown winning form over this trip on good going. The hold-up horses will struggle to organize behind her with so many needing room at once.
Alice's InfluenceShes Got The BluesLady Of CloverMali Star
B
Hold-Up Horses Prevail
30% probability
If the pace becomes too slow early and Alice's Influence stops in front
The better hold-up horses with tactical speed will sweep past a weakening leader. Lady Of Clover and Mali Star have both shown improved form recently and can benefit from the expected strong pace.
Lady Of CloverMali StarSail On SailorGrand Echo
C
Prominent Tracker Strikes
15% probability
If Shes Got The Blues can sit close enough to Alice's Influence without overracing
She gets first run on the leader while avoiding the traffic that will engulf the rear division. Her recent form shows consistent placed efforts and the step up in trip should suit.
Shes Got The BluesAlice's InfluenceLady Of CloverSail On Sailor
D
Outsider Surprise Package
10% probability
If the pace collapses completely and becomes a sprint finish
One of the bigger-priced hold-up horses like Marveling or Henfield could benefit from a true-run race at longer odds. The handicapper may have been lenient with the improving types.
MarvelingHenfieldGrand EchoPam's Sonnet
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Alice's Influence jumping slowly from the stalls could ruin her tactical advantage and allow unexpected early pace.
WATCH
Traffic problems developing in the straight with 8 hold-up horses needing room simultaneously behind a slow pace.
WATCH
Shes Got The Blues overracing in the early stages trying to stay close to Alice's Influence.
NOTE
Mali Star's position turning for home as she needs a clear passage to utilize her finishing kick.
NOTE
Early pace development to confirm whether Alice's Influence gets the expected uncontested lead.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.