Archive›Bath · 5 June 2026

Bath

5 June 2026 · 8 races

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5:00 — Larkhall Construction Handicap (Bath Summer Stayers' Series Qualifier)

1m6f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Curran to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Abando led; the map had Curran in front.

Curran won at 23.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Curran

Prominent · 1

No More Bolero

Midfield · 4

LusakaTaritinoGolden GardenKotari

Hold Up · 2

Percy JonesAbando

Curran is the sole confirmed front runner and will likely dictate from flagfall, with No More Bolero tracking prominently in second. With six hold-up horses behind them, Curran can roll along at a sustainable gallop without early pressure, potentially setting up a situation where the leaders aren't softened up sufficiently. The lack of pace pressure in the early stages means prominent runners like No More Bolero can sit in ideal position, while the large pack of hold-up horses will face a traffic-laden finish. This race shape strongly favours front runners and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable late scramble.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Wins

45% probability

If Curran gets an easy lead without being challenged early

The front runner can dictate fractions and kick clear when the field comes under pressure, while the hold-up brigade gets caught in traffic. Curran's style perfectly suits controlling the race from the front.

CurranNo More BoleroTaritinoLusaka

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If No More Bolero sits perfectly behind Curran and pounces late

The prominent runner gets the perfect trip tracking the leader before moving smoothly past in the final furlong. This course-and-distance winner can exploit the ideal tactical position.

No More BoleroLusakaCurranTaritino

Hold-Up Horse Threads Through

15% probability

If the pace becomes genuinely slow and one closer times their run perfectly

A patient ride from off the pace can work if the early tempo is crawling and allows time to weave through the pack. Taritino's proven stamina could be decisive in a slowly-run staying test.

TaritinoKotariPercy JonesGolden Garden

Complete Pace Collapse

10% probability

If Curran stops completely and No More Bolero also weakens

The race becomes a sprint finish between tired leaders and hold-up horses who left their runs too late. This creates chaos where any of the closers could emerge from the melee.

Percy JonesGolden GardenAbandoKotari

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Curran's wind surgery and stable debut tail-end finish raise serious fitness concerns despite tactical advantage

WATCH

No More Bolero's prominent style could be negated if he gets too keen tracking the uncontested leader

NOTE

Taritino returning after 236 days but has won twice over hurdles since last flat run

WATCH

Percy Jones has never won on turf in 22 attempts and was well beaten on reappearance

NOTE

Track the early pace as Curran may go too slow or too fast without pressure from other front runners

5:35 — Juddmonte EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Band D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB)

5½f · Good · CLS2 · 12 runners

Bill The Bull to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Bill The Bull led, as the map showed.

Bill The Bull won at 1.57 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Bill The Bull

Prominent · 1

Graceful George

Midfield · 6

Texas CrownSouth WestLucky LarryGolden OasisTemple CourtTaseem

Hold Up · 4

Invincible IsaacKatie's CavalierHoli ScarlettMadentine

Bill The Bull will be the sole confirmed pace-setter in this maiden field, giving him an uncontested lead through the early stages at a sustainable gallop. With no other natural front-runners to pressure him, the pace is likely to be steady rather than fierce, allowing Bill The Bull to dictate terms from the front. The race will develop into a tactical affair where horses need to position well behind the leader, with the real action beginning in the final two furlongs when the field starts to close. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers and the lone front-runner, as they will have positional advantages without facing early pace pressure that could compromise their finishing kick.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Wins

45% probability

If Bill The Bull maintains his sustainable pace without serious pressure until the final furlong.

His superior race fitness and tactical advantage from the front proves decisive as the newcomers and exposed horses behind cannot mount a strong enough challenge. The lack of early pace pressure preserves his energy for a strong finish.

Bill The BullGraceful GeorgeSouth WestLucky Larry

Prominent Closer Strikes

30% probability

If Graceful George can track Bill The Bull in second position and time his challenge perfectly.

The experienced runner uses his proven ability to sit handy and strike late, benefiting from the steady pace while having enough tactical speed to reel in the leader. His drop back to 5½f with cheekpieces added provides the necessary sharpening.

Graceful GeorgeBill The BullSouth WestTexas Crown

Newcomer Surprise

15% probability

If one of the well-bred debutants shows natural early speed to track the leader closely.

South West or Lucky Larry demonstrates immediate ability to sit prominent and has enough natural talent to quicken past tiring rivals in the final stages. The steady pace set by Bill The Bull suits a horse making a debut who can position well without being asked early questions.

South WestLucky LarryBill The BullTexas Crown

Hold-Up Horse Rallies

10% probability

If the pace becomes slower than expected and one of the hold-up horses gets a perfect trip through traffic.

Katie's Cavalier or Invincible Isaac benefits from sitting last, getting a clear run, and having enough finishing speed to make up ground when others have used their energy positioning closer to the pace. The tactical race becomes a sprint finish where pure speed matters most.

Katie's CavalierInvincible IsaacGraceful GeorgeBill The Bull

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Bill The Bull could get an easy lead and prove hard to peg back if no horse goes with him early

WATCH

Lucky Larry and South West are complete unknowns who could show immediate natural ability on debut

NOTE

Graceful George has tactical speed to sit second and challenge late if the pace becomes steady

WATCH

Katie's Cavalier dropping back to 5½f after modest 5f debut might not have the pace for this shorter trip

NOTE

Temple Court and Invincible Isaac both gelded since poor runs and could show improvement with headgear changes

6:05 — Hampton By Hilton Bath City Handicap (Bath Summer Sprint Series Qualifier)

5½f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

Geemann likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Apex Star and Gal led; the map had Geemann in front.

Mortubo won at 13.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up.

2 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Geemann

Prominent · 3

StolenApex StarForever Glamorous

Midfield · 4

GalRogue RebellionTickettothestarsSnow Day

Hold Up · 3

MortuboLuna BeauxMiss Magic Dragon

Geemann stands as the sole confirmed pace-setter but carries fade-in-finish warnings and returns from 248 days off, creating uncertainty about sustained pressure. Forever Glamorous, Gal, Apex Star, Rogue Rebellion and Stolen all show prominent tendencies but several carry similar fade warnings, suggesting the early pace may collapse rather than sustain. With most runners preferring hold-up tactics and the likely pace scenario being moderate early before weakening, this race strongly favours horses that can settle off the pace and deliver late kicks. The abundance of hold-up horses combined with questionable pace reliability creates a tactical setup that benefits patient, finishing types.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If Geemann sets moderate pace but fades as expected and prominent runners fail to sustain pressure.

The race becomes a sprint finish from the back with patient riders able to time their challenges perfectly through a weakening field. Hold-up specialists get ideal positioning to unleash finishing kicks in the final furlong.

Miss Magic DragonTickettothestarsMortuboLuna Beaux

Pace Collapses Early

25% probability

If Geemann fails to lead effectively and prominent runners are reluctant to commit early.

The race becomes messy with no clear pace-setter, creating a stop-start rhythm that suits versatile types who can adapt. Horses with tactical speed to move into contention mid-race gain crucial advantages.

Forever GlamorousRogue RebellionApex StarMiss Magic Dragon

Sustained Early Pressure

12% probability

If multiple prominent runners (Forever Glamorous, Apex Star, Rogue Rebellion) all commit to press Geemann from the start.

The aggressive early pace sets up a true test of stamina over this sprint trip, favouring horses with proven staying power at the distance. Late runners get perfect pace to aim at but need genuine class to reel in survivors.

Luna BeauxTickettothestarsMiss Magic DragonMortubo

Front Running Success

8% probability

If Geemann overcomes his fade warnings and gets an easy lead with soft fractions throughout.

The returning gelding utilizes his class advantage and natural pace to control proceedings unchallenged. Prominent runners get first crack at the leader while hold-up horses face an impossible task against a horse who doesn't come back.

GeemannForever GlamorousApex StarRogue Rebellion

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Geemann may fold quickly if pressed early given his extended absence and fade warnings, leaving race without pace

WATCH

Forever Glamorous and Rogue Rebellion could clash for prominent positions early, potentially compromising both chances

WATCH

Miss Magic Dragon may get too far back if pace is slow, as hold-up horses need genuine pace to aim at

NOTE

Gal's betting movement crucial given 212-day absence and stable debut for Mark Loughnane connections

NOTE

Stolen's settling ability key after racing too freely last time, cheekpieces removal suggests tactical change

6:40 — RUHX Handicap

5½f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Lazzar likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Jax Edge led; the map had Lazzar in front.

Jax Edge won at 5.50 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Lazzar

Prominent · 3

The Flying SeagullJax EdgeTiger Tulip

Midfield · 3

Glamour ShowManhattan MirageSavannah Smiles

Hold Up · 3

LequintoStrikeEmporess

Lazzar looks the most likely pace-setter with his prominent style and front-running tendencies, though he's struggled on turf recently and may not sustain strong pressure. The Flying Seagull, Jax Edge, Glamour Show and Tiger Tulip will likely sit prominent positions, creating a decent early gallop over this 5½f sprint trip. With multiple prominent runners and limited confirmed hold-up horses, the pace should be honest but not destructively fast. This race shape favors prominent racers who can track the pace and strike in the final furlong, as pure front-runners may be vulnerable and hold-up horses face a strong gallop to overcome.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Tracker Prevails

45% probability

If Lazzar sets genuine pace but gets caught late

The honest gallop allows prominent racers to position perfectly and outkick the leader in the final 100 yards. Strike and Lequinto benefit from their hold-up styles if the pace is strong enough to bring them into it late.

The Flying SeagullGlamour ShowJax EdgeStrike

Front Runner Dominates

30% probability

If Lazzar gets an easy lead and kicks clear

With limited early pressure, the leader gets first run and holds on as prominent horses struggle to make up ground. The lack of genuine early pace plays into front-running tactics.

LazzarJax EdgeThe Flying SeagullTiger Tulip

Hold-Up Horse Strikes

15% probability

If the prominent group goes too fast early

Strong early pace between multiple prominent runners sets up perfectly for the hold-up specialists. Strike and Lequinto get the perfect scenario with a collapse in front.

StrikeLequintoManhattan MirageSavannah Smiles

Outsider Benefits From Chaos

10% probability

If favorite prominent runners interfere with each other

Tactical errors or traffic problems among the market leaders create openings for unconsidered runners. The pace becomes messy rather than tactical.

Tiger TulipSavannah SmilesEmporessManhattan Mirage

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Lazzar may not handle the turf surface as all four wins have come on all-weather tracks

WATCH

The Flying Seagull often attracts market support but has a history of underperforming when backed

WATCH

Both Manhattan Mirage and Emporess return from lengthy breaks exceeding 230 days off track

NOTE

Strike prefers firmer ground conditions and may be inconvenienced by the good going

NOTE

Multiple prominent runners could create early tactical battles that compromise each other's chances

7:15 — Mitchell & Co Classified Stakes (Div I)

5½f · Good · DEFAULT · 9 runners

Dion Baker to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Symbol Of Hope and Payforanother Daay led; the map had Dion Baker in front.

Dion Baker won at 3.12 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Dion Baker

Prominent · 4

WedgewoodPorfinRokuniPayforanother Daay

Midfield · 1

Coco Hill

Hold Up · 3

Magnificent MelSymbol Of HopeJackie Brown

Dion Baker holds the front-running monopoly and can dictate a sustainable tempo after his Brighton victory, with no genuine pace pressure expected early. Four horses (Wedgewood, Porfin, Rokuni, Coco Hill) want prominent positions creating congestion and traffic problems 2-3 furlongs out on Bath's tight circuit. The hold-up contingent (Jackie Brown, Symbol Of Hope, Magnificent Mel) may struggle to find racing room in the sprint finish. This tactical setup clearly favours the confirmed front-runner who can avoid the squeeze and those who can secure an early prominent position without getting trapped.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Dion Baker Dominates

45% probability

If Dion Baker jumps smartly and faces no early pressure from the prominent brigade

Baker controls the tempo unchallenged and kicks clear when the prominent horses start battling each other in the congested pack behind. His class edge from the Brighton win proves decisive when he gets an uncontested lead.

Dion BakerWedgewoodPorfinRokuni

Prominent Battle Royal

30% probability

If multiple prominent runners (Wedgewood/Porfin/Rokuni) press Dion Baker early and create genuine pace

The increased tempo sets up perfectly for a closer with Wedgewood's course form giving him the edge over the other prominent runners. Jackie Brown or Magnificent Mel could benefit from the strong pace but need significant luck in running.

WedgewoodJackie BrownMagnificent MelPorfin

Traffic Chaos Finish

15% probability

If the four prominent runners create a wall across the track with hold-up horses trapped behind

The race becomes a lottery with positioning crucial and several runners having legitimate excuses. Whoever gets the clearest run in the final furlong wins by default rather than merit.

RokuniSymbol Of HopePayforanother DaayCoco Hill

Outsider Ambush

10% probability

If the pace collapses completely and becomes a sprint from the 2f marker

A hold-up horse with tactical speed like Symbol Of Hope uses his course knowledge to find the right gap. His Bath record (seven wins here) becomes the deciding factor in a slowly-run tactical affair.

Symbol Of HopeJackie BrownMagnificent MelWedgewood

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for traffic problems 2-3 furlongs out when Wedgewood, Porfin, Rokuni and Coco Hill converge in the prominent positions

WATCH

Monitor how quickly Dion Baker breaks from the stalls as any sluggish start invites pressure from the prominent brigade

NOTE

Observe Jackie Brown's early positioning as her hold-up style needs the race to develop into a sprint to be competitive

WATCH

Check if Magnificent Mel can secure a clear run given her 3-year-old inexperience in handling traffic problems

NOTE

Watch Symbol Of Hope for any signs of his old Bath brilliance returning after two months off the track

7:50 — Mitchell & Co Classified Stakes (Div II)

5½f · Good · DEFAULT · 9 runners

Coast to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Ken Brulee led; the map had Coast in front.

Port Hedland won at 5.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Coast

Prominent · 1

Addmann

Midfield · 4

Little Miss MagicI Was ThinkingPort HedlandChiedozie

Hold Up · 3

Spirited DancerKen BruleeSisters In The Sky

Coast will lead unopposed from the gates with Addmann potentially tracking in second early before fading. The single front-runner Coast will dictate comfortable fractions without pressure, creating a sustainable pace that allows the hold-up brigade to close late. With eight hold-up horses including Ken Brulee, Sisters In The Sky, and Spirited Dancer all needing to come from behind, the race sets up perfectly for late closers. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can produce their best work in the final furlong when Coast begins to tire.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Coast Controls Throughout

45% probability

If Coast maintains sustainable fractions and sees out the trip strongly

Coast's uncontested lead allows her to kick clear turning for home before the closers can get to her. Her recent better form at Brighton and tactical advantage prove decisive.

CoastKen BruleeSisters In The SkySpirited Dancer

Late Charge Prevails

35% probability

If Coast's stamina gives way in the final furlong under sustained pressure

The hold-up horses get the perfect setup behind honest pace and sweep past a tiring leader late. Ken Brulee's recent win and strong course record for Sisters In The Sky become crucial.

Ken BruleeSisters In The SkySpirited DancerCoast

Moderate Pace Backfires

12% probability

If Coast goes too slowly early and multiple horses challenge simultaneously

The gentle pace allows too many to stay in contention turning for home, creating a cavalry charge finish. Port Hedland's course form and Little Miss Magic's 5f speed could surprise at bigger odds.

Port HedlandLittle Miss MagicKen BruleeSisters In The Sky

Addmann Shows Early

8% probability

If Addmann puts pressure on Coast early before predictably weakening

The rare prominent runner creates faster fractions than expected, setting up the race for closers with the most finishing speed. I Was Thinking's fresh return could be the difference despite turf debut concerns.

I Was ThinkingSpirited DancerKen BruleeCoast

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Coast's early fractions will determine everything - if she goes too fast early, she becomes very vulnerable late

WATCH

Ken Brulee's jumping from the gates could be crucial given his hold-up style needs the right position early

WATCH

Sisters In The Sky may need luck in running from her wide draw given her come-from-behind style

NOTE

Addmann's early position will show if he's improved from the break or remains the same fading type

NOTE

The pace through the first two furlongs will reveal whether Coast can sustain her advantage to the line

8:25 — Bath University Handicap

1m2f · Good · HCAP · 14 runners

Shirakawa likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Skyolaire and Three Builders led; the map had Shirakawa in front.

Shirakawa won at 10.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Shirakawa

Prominent · 2

Emerald CoastElora Prince

Midfield · 7

Mali StarCastlekeelyAtalanta MistThree BuildersMaryland StarSkyolaireA Daughters Love

Hold Up · 4

RajbelloNew ObjectiveEthereal CharmUs Officer

Shirakawa and Elora Prince will likely set the early pace, with Emerald Coast also showing prominent tendencies, but this looks a modest pace given the lack of confirmed front-runners. The majority of this field are hold-up horses who will be looking to come with late runs, creating a potentially messy finish as multiple horses try to find racing room simultaneously. With 11 of the 14 runners showing hold-up or midfield styles, the early leaders will have breathing space to establish a rhythm before facing challenges. This pace setup strongly favors prominent runners and those who can race handily rather than get buried in traffic.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Early Lead

45% probability

If Shirakawa or another prominent runner gets an easy time in front with soft fractions

The lack of early pressure allows the pace-setter to kick clear when challenged, while hold-up horses struggle to make up ground from the back of a large field. Those racing closer to the pace have first run on the field when the sprint develops.

ShirakawaMali StarAtalanta MistEmerald Coast

Traffic Problems Late

30% probability

If the large field bunches up turning for home with multiple hold-up horses looking for gaps

Several fancied runners get checked or have to switch wide, allowing a horse with a clear run or one that's been prominent throughout to capitalize. The pace may collapse but positioning proves more important than raw finishing speed.

Elora PrinceThree BuildersUs OfficerSkyolaire

Strong Gallop Throughout

15% probability

If Shirakawa sets a genuine pace and Emerald Coast or Mali Star press the leader from early

The honest pace stretches the field and allows the best stayers to come through, with those racing handy having the tactical advantage. Late closers get their chance but need to be good enough to reel in horses that have had perfect trips.

Mali StarAtalanta MistRajbelloEthereal Charm

Slow Pace Sprint

10% probability

If no horse wants the lead and they crawl through the early stages

The race becomes a sprint from the 3f pole with the entire field still in contention, suiting horses with the best turn of foot regardless of their usual style. Hold-up horses finally get the scenario they need but must have genuine class to capitalize.

New ObjectiveCastlekeelyA Daughters LoveMaryland Star

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Shirakawa and Elora Prince could get too easy a lead if other prominent runners fail to go forward early

WATCH

Traffic problems are highly likely given 11 hold-up horses in a 14-runner field on Bath's tight track

NOTE

Us Officer's return from 276-day absence with new headgear makes him hard to assess

WATCH

Mali Star and Atalanta Mist both have strong course form but need to overcome their hold-up styles

NOTE

Multiple horses making debuts for new trainers including Elora Prince and New Objective add uncertainty

9:00 — Thank You To Bath University Handicap

1m2f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Man Is King likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Bobby Dassler led; the map had Man Is King in front.

Man Is King won at 5.00. One of the race scenarios named it.

6 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Man Is King

Prominent · 1

Douglas Dc

Midfield · 5

Crimson RoadGalactic GlowCity EscapeBobby DasslerMoonlit Cloud

Hold Up · 3

Nuptown GirlFour FiftyRevich

Man Is King is the sole confirmed front runner and will dictate terms from the start, likely setting a measured pace without pressure given most rivals prefer hold-up tactics. With eight of ten runners showing hold-up tendencies (Revich, Nuptown Girl, Four Fifty, City Escape, Crimson Road, Galactic Glow, Moonlit Cloud, Bobby Dassler), only Douglas Dc offers any early support in a prominent role. The lack of early pace will create a tactical affair with a bunched field turning for home, setting up a sprint finish over the final two furlongs. This race shape strongly favours front runners and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will engulf the hold-up brigade.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Man Is King Controls

45% probability

If Man Is King gets an uncontested lead and kicks clear turning for home

He dictates ideal fractions and has first run on the field, with Douglas Dc best placed to respond from his prominent position. The hold-up horses get caught in traffic and can't mount effective challenges.

Man Is KingDouglas DcBobby DasslerGalactic Glow

Hold-Up Sprint Finish

30% probability

If the pace becomes even slower than expected and all hold-up horses get clear runs

The race becomes a pure sprint with Moonlit Cloud and Galactic Glow using their Bath course experience to navigate the finish. Man Is King gets swamped by superior finishing speed in the final furlong.

Moonlit CloudGalactic GlowMan Is KingCity Escape

Tactical Mess Unfolds

15% probability

If multiple hold-up horses get blocked and only a few find clear passages

The race becomes a lottery with Nuptown Girl and Four Fifty benefiting from superior jockey partnerships (Hornby/Queally) to find racing room. Course specialists like Galactic Glow suffer in the melee despite their local knowledge.

Nuptown GirlFour FiftyMan Is KingDouglas Dc

Early Pace Surprise

10% probability

If Douglas Dc or another runner challenges Man Is King early and forces stronger fractions

The increased tempo plays into the hands of proven stayers like Crimson Road and Bobby Dassler who have recent 1m2f+ form. Man Is King gets pressured off his ideal tactics and fades in the final furlong.

Crimson RoadBobby DasslerDouglas DcMoonlit Cloud

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Man Is King breaking smartly and getting an uncontested lead could prove decisive given the lack of early pace pressure

WATCH

Douglas Dc's early positioning will determine if Man Is King faces any pressure or gets a completely solo lead

NOTE

Hold-up horses Galactic Glow and Moonlit Cloud drawing wide may struggle to get competitive positions from their preferred tactics

WATCH

Jockey bookings of Rob Hornby on Nuptown Girl and Tom Queally on Four Fifty suggest market confidence despite concerning form profiles

NOTE

Going remains good across all distances at Bath which may disadvantage Galactic Glow whose wins came on softer surfaces

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 5 June 2026.

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