Suspicious Mindz will likely lead from the gates with minimal early pressure, as most prominent runners (Flawless Fusion, New Radical, Gold Inn) prefer to track rather than contest the lead. The sustainable early pace will allow Suspicious Mindz to control fractions through the first half-mile before the field begins to close from the 3f marker. With several hold-up performers (Karrygrant, Templenoe, Prince Andorra) needing to make late ground on soft turf that can blunt finishing kicks, this controlled tempo clearly favours prominent runners who can position close to the pace and kick when it matters.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Pace Suits Trackers
55% probability
If Suspicious Mindz sets moderate fractions without early pressure from prominent runners
The sustainable tempo allows trackers to position ideally and time their challenges, while hold-up horses struggle to make up ground on the soft surface. Prominent runners with tactical speed prove superior to deep closers in these conditions.
If Suspicious Mindz maintains his lead and kicks clear turning for home
The controlled early pace leaves him with plenty in reserve for a decisive move, while soft ground conditions hinder the closing kicks of hold-up runners. His tactical advantage from the front proves insurmountable.
Suspicious MindzFlawless FusionNew RadicalGold Inn
C
Hold-Up Horse Charges Late
12% probability
If the pace becomes genuinely slow and hold-up horses get ideal racing room
Karrygrant or Templenoe can unleash their finishing kicks to maximum effect when the early pace collapses. Their superior class ratings can overcome positioning disadvantages.
KarrygrantTemplenoePrince AndorraSuspicious Mindz
D
Maiden Surprise Victory
8% probability
If the established form horses fail to fire and an unexposed runner steps forward
Borora Aura's unknown quantities or Priorstown's lightly-raced profile could produce improvement beyond current ratings. Soft conditions may suit an improver better than exposed rivals.
Borora AuraPriorstownHalon BayNew Radical
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Suspicious Mindz could steal this if allowed uncontested lead - watch if prominent runners fail to track him closely early
WATCH
Karrygrant has perfect soft ground record and could be value if getting clear run from hold-up position in straight
NOTE
Flawless Fusion represents strongest form on ratings and sits ideally placed to track the likely leader throughout
WATCH
Borora Aura's high official rating suggests ability but complete unknown with inexperienced rider aboard
NOTE
New Radical making only second career start and could improve significantly but faces stiff task against more experienced rivals
4:48 — Mac Tar Handicap
1m · Soft · HCAP · 13 runners
Dervo Annie to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Dream Legend and Gold Find led; the map had Dervo Annie in front.
Dream Legend won at 41.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield.
3 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Dervo Annie
Prominent · 4
Spirit HonourGlamazonNephin MountainElora Prince
Midfield · 4
Smart SiouxImnotleavinyouDream LegendBalance Of Trade
Hold Up · 4
PersonifiedGold FindThe Love MachineElly Bay
Dervo Annie will lead from the gates with minimal pressure, as the only confirmed front-runner in this 13-runner field. Glamazon, Spirit Honour, Nephin Mountain and Elora Prince should track in prominent positions behind the leader, but none are aggressive enough to seriously challenge early. The large hold-up contingent including The Love Machine, Personified, Elly Bay and Balance Of Trade will settle at the back, relying on a finishing kick. This lack of pace pressure suits patient hold-up horses who can exploit the anticipated moderate gallop and time their runs late.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Sustained Gallop Setup
65% probability
If Dervo Annie maintains a steady tempo without folding and the prominent trackers don't apply serious pressure.
The moderate pace allows hold-up horses to conserve energy and unleash superior finishing kicks in the final two furlongs. Patient riders can pick their moment and exploit the lack of early burn-up.
The Love MachinePersonifiedBalance Of TradeElly Bay
B
Front Collapse Special
20% probability
If Dervo Annie fades dramatically in the final furlong as her recent form suggests she might.
The pacesetter's capitulation creates a tactical void that allows prominent racers to inherit the lead without having expended energy in early battles. Those tracking closest can pounce when the leader weakens.
GlamazonSpirit HonourNephin MountainElora Prince
C
Late Pace Injection
12% probability
If the prominent group decides to increase the tempo from the three-furlong pole to prevent a sprint finish.
The increased gallop stretches out the field and makes it harder for hold-up horses to bridge the gap from their rearward positions. Those already in touch can benefit from the honest pace.
Spirit HonourNephin MountainGlamazonElora Prince
D
Messy Scramble Home
3% probability
If Dervo Annie stops completely and multiple hold-up horses get trapped behind a wall of fading runners.
Poor positioning and traffic problems prevent the best finishers from delivering their kicks, allowing any horse with clear running to capitalise. Racing room becomes more important than raw ability.
Elora PrinceBalance Of TradeGold FindDream Legend
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Dervo Annie's stamina reserves after 129 days off, as any early fade leaves the race wide open tactically
WATCH
Traffic problems for The Love Machine and other hold-up horses if the pace stays moderate and the field bunches
NOTE
Personified's positioning early on, as O'Brien horses often improve significantly for recent racing experience
WATCH
Weather conditions on the day, as any further rain could disadvantage horses without proven soft ground form
NOTE
How aggressively the prominent group tracks Dervo Annie, as passive tactics will set up hold-up finishers perfectly
5:23 — BOYLE Sports Handicap
1m · Soft · HCAP · 14 runners
Romantic War to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Goldrush Kid led; the map had Romantic War in front.
Lahore Da King won at 15.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Romantic War
Prominent · 5
Lahore Da KingSelective PowerSuerteGoldrush KidUncle Albert
Midfield · 4
Summer IslandQueen AethelflaedKevin The GreatGiselles Defence
Hold Up · 4
MehmanBay Of DreamsLohengrinKakori
Romantic War will lead unchallenged early with Goldrush Kid, Suerte, Lahore Da King and Selective Power settling in behind but unlikely to pressure the pace given the field composition. The majority of runners are hold-up types including Mehman, Queen Aethelflaed, Bay Of Dreams, Summer Island and Kakori who will settle at the back. This creates a slow, tactical affair where the pace will collapse in the straight as the back markers make their moves. The race strongly favours hold-up horses with a finishing kick who can exploit the modest early gallop.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-up horses dominate
65% probability
If Romantic War sets uncontested fractions and the field bunches turning in
The pace collapses completely allowing the best finishers to sweep past tired leaders. Quality hold-up performers like Mehman, Bay Of Dreams and Summer Island get ideal conditions to unleash their kicks.
MehmanBay Of DreamsSummer IslandQueen Aethelflaed
B
Prominent tracker wins
20% probability
If one of the prominent runners pressures Romantic War enough to create honest pace
Goldrush Kid or Lahore Da King get first run on the tiring leader while avoiding the traffic that snares the hold-up brigade. The winner comes from those tracking the pace.
Lahore Da KingGoldrush KidSuerteSelective Power
C
Front runner survives
10% probability
If Romantic War gets soft fractions and kicks clear before the field responds
The low-rated leader exploits his 12lb weight advantage and sustains his effort long enough. Hold-up horses leave their runs too late on the testing ground.
Romantic WarUncle AlbertGoldrush KidSuerte
D
Improving sort surprises
5% probability
If the race becomes a sprint finish where class tells over tactics
A horse showing recent improvement like Giselles Defence or Kevin The Great finds extra under pressure. The soft ground levels the playing field for exposed performers.
Kevin The GreatGiselles DefenceKakoriLohengrin
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Romantic War could steal this if allowed completely uncontested fractions and the field switches off
WATCH
Mehman's recent consistency makes him dangerous if getting the expected slow pace scenario
NOTE
Watch for Bay Of Dreams to be produced late given his class and the likelihood of a sprint finish
WATCH
Goldrush Kid and Lahore Da King need tracking as the main threats to exploit forward positions
NOTE
Queen Aethelflaed's fitness after 115 days off could be the key factor in her chances despite the yard form
5:55 — BOYLE Sports Handicap
5f · Soft · HCAP · 18 runners
Baggot Street to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Alnofoor and Art Of Unity led; the map had Baggot Street in front.
Alnofoor won at 6.50 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
6 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Baggot Street
Prominent · 6
Jordan BreezeGirl Is On FirePolar BearPlatino BiancoArt Of UnitySteel Magnolia
Midfield · 6
Apache StarNever Shout NeverIryna's StarHappy HenryHalf NutzShe's A Gift
Baggot Street is the sole confirmed front runner and will dictate terms from the start without early pressure in this 18-runner field. The prominent runners Polar Bear, Girl Is On Fire, Art Of Unity, Steel Magnolia, Jordan Breeze, and Platino Bianco will sit just behind, but none are natural pace pressers. With 12 hold-up horses including Alnofoor, Jazzit, Never Shout Never, and Apache Star, the early gallop will be comfortable before a cavalry charge develops in the final two furlongs. This sustainable pace followed by a sprint finish heavily favours hold-up horses who can produce their best turn of foot late.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Swarm Late
65% probability
If Baggot Street sets uncontested fractions and the field bunches entering the final furlong
The patient riders unleash their mounts simultaneously creating a wall of finishers. Superior staying power and tactical positioning from the back decides the outcome.
AlnofoorJazzitNever Shout NeverApache Star
B
Prominent Runners Control
20% probability
If the prominent quartet applies more pressure than expected and maintains strong positions turning in
The early pace becomes more genuine, suiting horses who can travel strongly throughout. The hold-up brigade faces too much ground to make up.
Jordan BreezeArt Of UnityPolar BearSteel Magnolia
C
Baggot Street Wire-To-Wire
10% probability
If the leader kicks clear entering the straight and the chasers fail to organize an effective response
The front runner capitalizes on the soft ground and sectional advantage. Late closers leave their runs too late on the testing surface.
Baggot StreetJordan BreezeArt Of UnityPolar Bear
D
Pace Collapse Sprint
5% probability
If Baggot Street goes too slow early and multiple prominent runners surge forward simultaneously
A messy mid-race battle develops with changes of pace throughout. The race becomes a pure sprint from two furlongs out favoring natural speed.
Girl Is On FireSteel MagnoliaPlatino BiancoJordan Breeze
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Baggot Street must be monitored early as any sustained pressure will compromise his stamina reserves
WATCH
Jordan Breeze could be overbet given her forward style may not suit if the pace becomes genuinely run
NOTE
Art Of Unity's soft ground prowess makes her dangerous if she can secure ideal prominent position
WATCH
Multiple hold-up horses including Simmering Seas, Glen Breeze and Iryna's Star carry fade warnings in their profiles
NOTE
The 18-runner field size creates potential traffic problems for hold-up horses if they get too far back
6:30 — His Majesty's Cup Handicap
5f · Soft · HCAP · 12 runners
Mc Loven to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Cuban Grey led; the map had Mc Loven in front.
Bay Of Supremacy won at 3.75 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Mc Loven
Prominent · 5
AmiataVenetianCuban GreyBay Of SupremacyMint Man
Midfield · 2
AsdanaKilmood Susan
Hold Up · 4
NezeehBeauty QueenSporting HeroAurora Nova
Mc Loven will take them along from the front at a steady gallop on the yielding to soft ground over this sharp 5f trip. Cuban Grey, Amiata, Venetian, Mint Man and Asdana will create serious congestion in the prominent positions, with five horses wanting to track the leader closely. This weight of numbers tracking the pace will create interference problems turning for home, while the hold-up horses Beauty Queen, Sporting Hero, Nezeeh and Aurora Nova will struggle to get clear runs in the home straight. The race shape strongly favours front-running and prominent racers who can secure clear sailing positions early.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Front runners dominate completely
45% probability
If Mc Loven dictates uncontested fractions and the prominent pack gets tangled up
The leader will have too much in hand while the prominent horses interfere with each other. Those tracking closest without traffic problems will pick up the pieces.
Mc LovenBay Of SupremacyCuban GreyMint Man
B
Prominent racer strikes late
35% probability
If the pace congestion sorts itself out and one prominent runner gets first run
A horse like Amiata or Cuban Grey will benefit from Mc Loven's honest pace and kick clear of the melee. The hold-up horses still won't get there in time.
AmiataCuban GreyVenetianBay Of Supremacy
C
Hold-up horse finds gaps
12% probability
If the prominent pack completely collapses into chaos and gaps appear late
Beauty Queen or Nezeeh will thread through tired horses in the final furlong. This requires the pace to be unsustainably strong and perfect late navigation.
Beauty QueenNezeehSporting HeroAurora Nova
D
Pace collapse benefits closers
8% probability
If Mc Loven goes too fast early and the prominent horses fold completely
The entire front division will come back dramatically to the hold-up runners. Aurora Nova and Sporting Hero will benefit from the comprehensive pace meltdown.
Aurora NovaSporting HeroBeauty QueenNezeeh
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Cuban Grey, Amiata, Venetian, Mint Man and Asdana will create a five-horse scrum tracking Mc Loven - interference inevitable
WATCH
Beauty Queen and Nezeeh must find gaps late but the pace scenario suggests little room will develop
NOTE
Bay Of Supremacy could benefit from the chaos as a three-year-old with tactical pace from the outside
WATCH
Mc Loven's recent form is patchy despite getting ideal front-running scenario
NOTE
The yielding to soft ground will emphasize stamina over speed, potentially helping the hold-up division more than usual
7:00 — Paddy Woods Memorial Apprentice Handicap
1m3½f · Soft · HCAP · 14 runners
Radar Ahead likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Radar Ahead led, as the map showed.
Putapoundinthejar won at 6.00 — was held up, as the map had it.
6 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Radar Ahead
Prominent · 2
Baila ConmigoBridgehead
Midfield · 7
AlmenfeeJustenziaObscenityThru The GapMystic RoseDesert FriendTara Power
Radar Ahead will take the field along as the sole confirmed front runner, joined by prominent runners Bridgehead and Baila Conmigo in the early exchanges. With most of the field holding up including quality operators like Justenzia, Lagoon Nebula, and Superficial, the pace will be sustainable rather than fierce over this extended trip on soft turf. The lack of early pace pressure means Radar Ahead can dictate terms, but the large hold-up contingent will be winding up late over the final three furlongs. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can finish, as the modest early gallop will leave plenty in reserve for those coming from behind.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Brigade Dominates
55% probability
If the pace stays steady as expected with Radar Ahead unchallenged early
The sustainable gallop allows the talented hold-up horses to unleash their finishing kicks, with the soft ground suiting their stamina profiles. Quality back-markers like Justenzia and Lagoon Nebula can time their runs perfectly.
JustenziaLagoon NebulaSuperficialDesert Friend
B
Front End Surprise
25% probability
If Radar Ahead gets an easy lead and the hold-up horses fail to organize
The leader can steal a march turning for home before the back-markers get into gear on the testing ground. Prominent racers who can stay in touch early get first run on those held up.
Radar AheadBridgeheadBaila ConmigoObscenity
C
Desert Friend Special
12% probability
If the veteran finds his 2022 form with the tongue-tie helping
His recent all-weather win suggests he's back to form, and the soft ground suits his staying style perfectly. The 10-year-old gets a significant weight pull and his trainer has an excellent strike rate.
Desert FriendTara PowerPutapoundinthejarMystic Rose
D
Pace Collapses Completely
8% probability
If even the hold-up horses go too early and fatigue sets in
The combination of soft ground and extended distance catches out the field, allowing a complete outsider to pick up the pieces. Horses who settle best and stay strongest benefit from others' mistakes.
AlmenfeeThru The GapGood Onya MateMystic Rose
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Radar Ahead may get too easy a time in front if the prominent horses don't engage early enough
WATCH
Justenzia's hold-up style perfectly suits this race shape but must handle the extended trip
NOTE
Desert Friend at huge odds with tongue-tie and soft ground form could outrun expectations significantly
WATCH
Several horses including Good Onya Mate and Thru The Gap show recent patterns of fading in finishes
NOTE
The large field of 14 on soft turf could cause traffic problems for hold-up horses in the straight
7:30 — David McKeown A1 Generators Maiden
1m3½f · Soft · MDN · 17 runners
Battling Siki to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Joe Cool led; the map had Battling Siki in front.
Tim Toe won at 8.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
6 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Battling Siki
Prominent · 7
Tim ToeMust Meet CecilGood DealBeechingstokeLady MairenLuker's TippleJannah Star
Battling Siki will take this race by the throat from the start as the sole confirmed front runner, but won't be pressured early which allows sustainable fractions. The real carnage happens behind where Tim Toe, Beechingstoke, Luker's Tipple, Good Deal, Lady Mairen, Must Meet Cecil, and Forthill all want prominent positions - creating a traffic jam 2-3 furlongs out when the pace lifts. Captain Conby, Jet Renegade, Grennanstown Lady, and Joe Cool sit patiently at the back with clear water. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can exploit the inevitable prominent runner pile-up when the serious running begins.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Traffic Chaos
45% probability
If the seven prominent runners bunch together turning for home as expected
The leaders compromise each other in a scramble while the patient hold-up horses sweep through with clear runs. Captain Conby and Joe Cool benefit most from this tactical meltdown.
Captain ConbyJoe CoolJet RenegadeGrennanstown Lady
B
Battling Siki Stays On
25% probability
If the lone leader maintains his advantage while the field behind gets stuck in traffic
The front runner capitalizes on the sustainable pace and messy pursuit to hold his advantage to the line. Battling Siki proves that sometimes the simple option works best.
Battling SikiTim ToeGood DealMust Meet Cecil
C
Late Closer Surge
20% probability
If one of the back markers gets a dream run through gaps when others are blocked
The patient tactics pay dividends as traffic problems allow a swooper to come from last to first. Jet Renegade or Grennanstown Lady time their challenge perfectly.
If one of the seven prominent runners avoids the traffic and maintains momentum
Despite the congestion, a well-positioned prominent runner like Tim Toe or Good Deal navigates clear of trouble. Superior class tells when getting first run on the leaders.
Tim ToeGood DealLady MairenForthill
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch for a cavalry charge of hold-up horses in the final two furlongs as Captain Conby, Joe Cool, and Jet Renegade exploit traffic problems
WATCH
Monitor if Battling Siki gets too easy a lead early as the prominent runners focus on scrimmaging with each other
WATCH
Check if any of the seven prominent runners can secure an early position without getting trapped in the inevitable squeeze
NOTE
Observe whether the soft ground favours the patient types over those who need to use energy fighting for position early
NOTE
Watch for late gaps opening up on the outside as the prominent runners bunch together on the rail
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.