Monntie and Manoir De Mirande are the confirmed front runners here, with Monntie showing consistent early pace on flat tracks and Manoir De Mirande having led in recent hurdles starts. These two will ensure a solid early gallop over the first mile, with prominent runners Ole Ole, Walk Win, Littlebeen and Whats New tracking close behind. The pace should be honest rather than breakneck, setting up a stamina test from 3f out where the hold-up horses can make their challenge. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners and forward-going types who can sit handy and kick, rather than pure hold-up horses who may find too much to do.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Runners Dominate
55% probability
If the early pace is honest but not excessive, allowing prominent types to stay in touch
The handy horses can travel well and have first run on the hold-up brigade when the race begins in earnest. Ole Ole, Whats New and Littlebeen are perfectly positioned to capitalise.
Ole OleWhats NewLittlebeenChief Josef
B
Front Runners Battle
25% probability
If Monntie and Manoir De Mirande go too hard early and compromise each other
The early leaders weaken late, but their aggressive pace also inconveniences the hold-up horses. One of the front two may still prevail if they have enough left.
Manoir De MirandeMonntieOle OleTry Them
C
Hold-Up Horses Strike
15% probability
If the early pace is moderate and the front runners don't commit fully
The race becomes a sprint from 2f out, allowing the closers to unleash their finishing kicks. Try Them and Chief Josef have shown ability to finish strongly.
Try ThemChief JosefMedieval NightPilgrims Walk
D
Outsider Surprise
5% probability
If the market fancies struggle with the ground or jumping, opening the door
A lightly-raced type or unconsidered runner benefits from the pace collapse of others. The maidens' unpredictable nature allows for a shock result.
Messire Des BordesStar Of KilbrideFinns FirstFree Vango
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Manoir De Mirande and Monntie could go off too fast early if both commit to leading, compromising their finishing kicks
WATCH
Medieval Night and Monntie both return from very long layoffs which raises serious fitness questions in a competitive maiden
NOTE
Ole Ole has been consistent in similar company and could benefit from the likely strong early pace
WATCH
Several lightly-raced horses including Messire Des Bordes and Star Of Kilbride could improve significantly from their debuts
NOTE
The 7lb claiming jockeys on Littlebeen and Chief Josef provide valuable weight relief in a tight handicap
2:40 — William Hill Each Way Extra Challenge Series Maiden Hurdle
2m1f · Good To Soft · MDN · 19 runners
Lead contested: Grandy Lane v SticktothescriptHISTORIC
How it ran
Sticktothescript led, as the map showed.
Two Pair won at 8.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
6 of 16 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Grandy LaneSticktothescript
Prominent · 6
Jazz ForeverTwo PairJr MahonFollowing OrdersChanceawetmorningJury Foreman
Grandy Lane and Sticktothescript will ensure a genuine pace from the start, with both confirmed front-runners likely to dispute the early lead over this stamina-testing 2m1f trip. The honest gallop they create will stretch the field and expose any fitness doubts in this large maiden field. Following Orders and Two Pair sit prominent to track the pace, while the hold-up brigade including Kasper Hauser, Laxxio and Speedy Box will need the leaders to come back to them. This pace scenario strongly favours prominent racers and those with tactical speed to position close enough without getting involved in the early battle.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Honest Pace Suits Prominents
45% probability
If Grandy Lane and Sticktothescript maintain honest fractions without going too fast early
The genuine gallop plays to horses that can sit handy without getting embroiled in the lead battle, allowing them to strike when the early pace-setters weaken. Following Orders and Two Pair are perfectly positioned to capitalize with their prominent styles.
Following OrdersTwo PairJury ForemanJr Mahon
B
Leaders Collapse Late
25% probability
If the two front-runners go too hard early and come back dramatically in the final furlong
The strong early pace will set up the race for closers with enough tactical pace to get into contention before the hill. Kasper Hauser's high RPR of 124 and Glenrush Bay's form make them best equipped to benefit from this collapse.
Kasper HauserGlenrush BayLaxxioZuzukel
C
Front Runner Stays Strong
20% probability
If either Grandy Lane or Sticktothescript can dictate at a controlled tempo and maintain their kick
The leader gets an easy time in front and has enough left to repel challenges, particularly if they can utilize the rail and make others come around them. Recent form suggests both have the class to make all if getting the fractions right.
If the pace becomes stop-start with neither leader able to establish control
The lack of rhythm will play into the hands of an adaptable horse with tactical speed who can quicken off any pace. Maxwell Smart's win from similar ratings and Chanceawetmorning's Gordon Elliott stable form make them capable of capitalizing.
Grandy Lane and Sticktothescript for how fast they go in the first half-mile - if they sprint clear early, they'll come back to the field dramatically
WATCH
Following Orders for any signs of ring-rustiness given the 211-day layoff, though Roche's booking suggests he's ready
NOTE
Kasper Hauser and Glenrush Bay for how quickly they can get into the race from their hold-up positions
WATCH
The ground conditions throughout the day - if it continues to ride yielding, it will favour the hold-up horses more than the current going description suggests
NOTE
Two Pair and Jr Mahon for the impact of their significant weight advantages with Paul Nolan and Ian Donoghue both having recent winners
3:15 — Boardsmill Stud Mares Handicap Hurdle
2m1f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 10 runners
Disco Dancer likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Fedneys Park and Eastern Wind led; the map had Disco Dancer in front.
Fiver Friday won at 1.91 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Disco Dancer
Prominent · 3
TheflyingbeeEastern WindMo Ghille Mar
Midfield · 3
Fedneys ParkPatty O'FarrellSimple Things
Hold Up · 3
Fiver FridayFortunate LightingCleopatra's Needle
Disco Dancer will look to dictate from the front with her proven pace-setting ability, likely accompanied by the prominent racers Theflyingbee, Patty O'Farrell, and Eastern Wind who will track close behind. With limited early pace pressure, Disco Dancer can control the tempo and stretch the field out, creating a searching gallop that will test stamina reserves. The hold-up horses Fiver Friday, Simple Things, Fortunate Lighting, and Cleopatra's Needle will need the pace to collapse to mount their typical late charges. This controlled tempo strongly favours the prominent racers who can track the pace without being stretched and kick when Disco Dancer begins to tire.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Pace Suits Trackers
45% probability
If Disco Dancer sets steady fractions without being pressured early
The prominent runners can sit comfortably behind before striking in the final furlong when the leader weakens. This tactical advantage nullifies the hold-up horses who rely on a collapse.
TheflyingbeePatty O'FarrellEastern WindMo Ghille Mar
B
Front Runner Dominates
30% probability
If Disco Dancer gets an easy lead and quickens before the field can respond
Her class advantage tells as she builds an unassailable advantage turning for home. The prominent runners are caught flat-footed by the acceleration while hold-up horses have too much ground to make up.
Disco DancerEastern WindTheflyingbeePatty O'Farrell
C
Late Charge Prevails
15% probability
If the pace becomes genuinely strong with prominent runners pressuring Disco Dancer throughout
The early leaders weaken dramatically in the final two furlongs, allowing the patient hold-up horses to sweep past. Fiver Friday's proven finishing kick becomes decisive when others have emptied their tanks.
Fiver FridayCleopatra's NeedleFortunate LightingSimple Things
D
Pace Collapses Completely
10% probability
If Disco Dancer goes too slow early and the field bunches up turning for home
A cavalry charge ensues with little separating the field, favouring horses with the strongest recent form regardless of running style. The race becomes a sprint finish where class and condition matter most.
Disco Dancer's jumping under pressure - any mistakes could hand the initiative to prominent trackers
WATCH
Theflyingbee's fitness after 83-day break combined with inexperienced 7lb claimer in tactical race
WATCH
Eastern Wind carrying 5lb claimer after 173-day absence in race requiring tactical nous
NOTE
Simple Things wearing hood for first time which could sharpen her finishing kick significantly
NOTE
Track Fiver Friday early - if tracking closer than usual it suggests connections expect stronger pace
3:50 — Sean & Margaret McManus Memorial 110 Series Final Handicap Hurdle
2m1f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 13 runners
Lead contested: Marlpark v Blue ReedHISTORIC
How it ran
Blue Reed led, as the map showed.
Take Stock won at 8.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up.
5 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
MarlparkBlue Reed
Prominent · 5
Something NobleGalavanting GeorgeSyracus Du HouxCouldntmakeitupMon Sheriffe
Midfield · 2
Kinturk NelsonJaynemax
Hold Up · 4
Take StockDairy ForceHigh NotionsTsavo Park
Marlpark and Blue Reed will contest the early lead, with Marlpark's recent front-running form and Blue Reed's natural pace-pressing style ensuring a genuine gallop from the start. Something Noble and the prominent brigade (Syracus Du Houx, Mon Sheriffe, Galavanting George) will sit handy in the pack, while the hold-up horses (Dairy Force, Tsavo Park, Take Stock, High Notions, Jaynemax) face the challenge of picking up the pieces. With two confirmed front-runners and a competitive field, the pace should be honest throughout. This race shape favours prominent runners who can track the pace without getting embroiled in the early battle, as they can strike when the leaders tire.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Runners Strike
45% probability
If the pace is honest but not suicidal between Marlpark and Blue Reed
Something Noble can reproduce his shock 25-1 win from this course last month, tracking the pace before delivering his trademark late surge. The prominent position allows horses like Syracus Du Houx and Galavanting George to pick off tiring leaders.
Something NobleSyracus Du HouxGalavanting GeorgeMon Sheriffe
B
Hold-up horses prevail
30% probability
If the early pace between the leaders becomes too strong and burns them out
Dairy Force benefits from Jack Kennedy's tactical nous and Gordon Elliott's excellent recent form, sweeping through tired horses in the final furlong. The strong pace sets up perfectly for closers with the stamina to last home.
Dairy ForceHigh NotionsTake StockTsavo Park
C
Front-runners dominate
15% probability
If Marlpark and Blue Reed can settle into a rhythm without destroying each other early
The leaders can exploit the yielding ground and maintain their advantage to the line, with the handicapper potentially underestimating their current form. Marlpark's recent second at this track gives him a fitness edge.
MarlparkBlue ReedSomething NobleCouldntmakeitup
D
Pace collapses completely
10% probability
If both Marlpark and Blue Reed fail to go forward or encounter early trouble
The race becomes a tactical affair with no genuine pace, suiting horses that can quicken from any position regardless of running style. This scenario benefits the most talented horses who can adapt to any pace scenario.
Something NobleDairy ForceSyracus Du HouxHigh Notions
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Marlpark and Blue Reed may go too fast early and compromise each other's chances if neither settles
WATCH
Something Noble carries top-weight but inexperienced claimer Eoghan Finegan takes over from recent winning rider
WATCH
Dairy Force drops back to hurdles after disappointing chase run but Elliott's 10 winners from 97 runners shows stable form
NOTE
Take Stock and Galavanting George both trained by Gavin Cromwell who could have strong hand if pace unfolds correctly
NOTE
Jaynemax's tendency to fade in finish makes him vulnerable if the pace is strong throughout this staying contest
4:25 — Tony Marmion Memorial Handicap Hurdle
2m1f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 19 runners
Concert Party likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Bella Union won at 23.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it.
8 of 16 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Concert Party
Prominent · 3
Krishna BellevueHarley StreetSekifi
Midfield · 9
ZarushioBallinearla GirlSpread The FaithOde To JoyBoston BreezeBoston BobbyAtlantic WonderGetaway BlondieBella Union
Hold Up · 6
Pourquoi PoiJuralityPenny JarOcean Of DreamsTropical TwistStruck Oil
Concert Party represents the only confirmed front-runner in this 19-runner field, likely to set an uncontested lead with Krishna Bellevue and Sekifi offering the only prominent support. The lack of early pace pressure should allow Concert Party to dictate terms through steady sectionals, creating a tactical affair rather than a stamina test. With most of the field adopting hold-up tactics, the race will develop into a patient waiting game before a late surge. This moderate pace scenario strongly favours prominent racers and those hold-up horses with proven finishing kicks over pure stayers who need a stronger gallop.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Front Runner Holds
45% probability
If Concert Party faces no early pressure and maintains the lead turning for home
Concert Party can control the tempo completely and kick clear when the field challenges, while the patient tactics suit proven finishers with tactical speed. The moderate pace eliminates stamina advantages and rewards horses who can quicken.
Concert PartyBallinearla GirlOcean Of DreamsOde To Joy
B
Late Surge Swamps Leader
35% probability
If the hold-up brigade times their challenge perfectly in the final 2f
The patient pace allows the back markers to conserve energy for one decisive move, overwhelming Concert Party's finishing kick. Class and recent form become decisive factors in a bunch finish.
Pourquoi PoiTropical TwistBoston BobbyJurality
C
Prominent Duo Battle Home
15% probability
If Krishna Bellevue and Concert Party engage in a prolonged duel from 3f out
Their early battle sets up the race for a closer with tactical speed, but the stronger pace also brings stamina into play. The prominent pair's early exertions create opportunities for those just behind the pace.
Ballinearla GirlOcean Of DreamsConcert PartyKrishna Bellevue
D
Pace Collapses Completely
5% probability
If Concert Party goes too slowly and the field remains bunched turning in
The lack of tempo creates a cavalry charge finish where positioning and luck matter more than ability. Any horse can win in the resulting lottery, favouring those drawn well with strong jockeys.
Atlantic WonderBoston BobbyBella UnionStruck Oil
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Concert Party must be monitored early - if challenged for the lead by Krishna Bellevue or Sekifi, the race dynamics change completely
WATCH
Several hold-up horses including Krishna Bellevue, Harley Street and Atlantic Wonder show clear tendencies to fade in the finish
NOTE
Multiple horses returning from breaks over 100 days including Pourquoi Poi, Penny Jar and Boston Bobby need to show ring-rustiness won't impact them
WATCH
The amateur and claiming jockeys on Krishna Bellevue, Harley Street and Ocean Of Dreams could struggle with tactical positioning in a big field
NOTE
Ballinearla Girl and Ode To Joy both showed good recent course form and represent the most reliable recent indicators
5:00 — Pat & Eddie Smith Memorial (Q.R.) Handicap Hurdle
3m · Good To Soft · HCAP · 19 runners
Insouciant Dallier likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Large Steps led; the map had Insouciant Dallier in front.
Midleton Rare won at 7.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up.
6 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Large StepsGangster GrannyHey BabbsLucy JordanWhatafoolbelievesMistyburn
Hold Up · 6
Can HappenPriory ParkGlenmalure LadyThe Shanty FieldIts Not Over YetMidleton Rare
Insouciant Dallier will dictate terms from the front with Money Heist, Clonbury Bridge, Dinoland, Schiehallion and Gallant George all sitting prominent, creating a genuine pace through the early stages of this 3m test. The large field of 19 runners means the pace will be solid rather than crawling, with multiple prominent runners ensuring no easy lead for Insouciant Dallier. With 11 hold-up horses including Priory Park, Glenmalure Lady, Its Not Over Yet and Can Happen all needing to be delivered late, the sustained pace over 3m will set up perfectly for the patient tactics. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can finish from off the pace.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
65% probability
If the prominent runners maintain a solid gallop and several fade in the final half-mile
The sustained pace will suit patient riders perfectly, with the large field creating cover for late runs. Hold-up specialists like Priory Park, Its Not Over Yet and Glenmalure Lady can pick off tiring leaders.
Priory ParkIts Not Over YetGlenmalure LadyCan Happen
B
Prominent Runner Stays
20% probability
If one of the forward horses manages the pace cleverly and kicks clear
Money Heist or Clonbury Bridge could dictate on their own terms if the pace becomes more moderate. Their class edge would tell in a tactical finish.
If Insouciant Dallier gets an easy lead and the field goes to sleep early
A slow pace would negate the stamina test and allow the leader to build an unassailable advantage. The 3m trip becomes less of a factor.
Insouciant DallierMoney HeistClonbury BridgeGallant George
D
Chaos and Surprise
5% probability
If multiple fallers or interference disrupts the race flow significantly
A scrappy contest could see an outsider benefit from a clear run when others are hampered. Long-priced hold-up horses get their chance.
Hey BabbsGangster GrannyThe Shanty FieldLucy Jordan
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Multiple horses have fading tendencies (Gallant George, Gangster Granny, Large Steps, Midleton Rare, Whatafoolbelieves, Mistyburn) suggesting pace could be very strong early
WATCH
Insouciant Dallier could get an uncontested lead if the prominent horses are reluctant to press, changing the race dynamic completely
NOTE
Several trainers have poor recent form including McLoughlin (0/11), Hanlon (0/12), and McConnell (0/19) affecting multiple runners
WATCH
Lucy Jordan has no jockey declared which could indicate late withdrawal or tactical uncertainty
NOTE
The 7lb claiming jockeys on Money Heist, Priory Park, Glenmalure Lady and others could prove significant in a tight finish
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.