2:15 — Macan At Porsche Centre Hull EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)
5f · Good · NOV · 14 runners
4 vying for the leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Tiggywinkle led; the map had Classy Jaguar and Ard As A Rock and Lexington Boom and Spectacular Diver in front.
Lexington Boom won at 4.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
0 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 4
Classy JaguarArd As A RockLexington BoomSpectacular Diver
Prominent · 2
Desert OutlawTrue Charm
Midfield · 4
UbettabequeenTaj Mahal PalaceOne More TildaMugheer
Hold Up · 4
TiggywinkleScottys RocketNeedin' UMubehir
Classy Jaguar, Ard As A Rock, and Lexington Boom are all confirmed front-runners in a 14-runner field over Beverley's stiff 5f on good-to-firm ground, guaranteeing an honest, pressured gallop from the outset with no chance of false dawdling. Spectacular Diver also carries front-running tendencies, meaning the early dash for position will be fiercely contested and the pace will be relentless rather than manufactured. The strong gallop on a track that already tests stamina at this trip will stretch horses with raw speed but limited reserves, compressing the field and rewarding those who travel efficiently rather than those who burn early. This race shape squarely favours prominent-to-midfield types who can slot in behind the pace battle, conserve energy through the first two furlongs, and sustain their effort up the stiff Beverley climb — hold-up horses with a genuine late kick are the primary beneficiaries, provided they don't get caught too far back in a 14-runner field.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Pace War Suits Closers
44% probability
If the three front-runners burn each other off inside the first two furlongs and the strong pace sets up a genuine test of stamina.
The frantic duel between Classy Jaguar, Ard As A Rock, and Lexington Boom drains the principals, leaving the race to those who travelled smoothly in mid-division or held up and picked up the pieces late. Beverley's stiff uphill finish amplifies this effect, giving stamina-laden hold-up horses a clear route past spent leaders.
MubehirNeedin' UTrue CharmDesert Outlaw
B
Prominent Horse Threads Through
28% probability
If one prominent-tracking runner settles just off the pace leaders and times their run to catch the fading pace horses inside the final furlong.
A horse like Desert Outlaw or True Charm, sitting two or three lengths off the speed in a handy position, avoids the worst of the early pace battle while still maintaining contact, then swoops as the pace horses tie up.
If one of the confirmed leaders — most likely Lexington Boom given two consecutive runner-up finishes — produces enough tactical variation to find a lead on the inner and is not swamped by the scramble.
Lexington Boom's back-to-back placed efforts show genuine ability to sustain effort, and if the other leaders cancel each other out scrambling for the rail, the calmest of the trio could find a clean lead and hold on up the hill. Good-to-firm ground suits this profile and rewards clean-jumping, well-balanced sprinters who don't fight for their position.
Lexington BoomClassy JaguarArd As A RockSpectacular Diver
D
Debutants Spring Surprise
10% probability
If one of the unraced or lightly raced unknown-style runners — Mugheer, Taj Mahal Palace, Ubettabequeen, or One More Tilda — possesses raw talent that overrides the pace dynamic entirely.
With K.R. Burke's Mugheer and Tim Easterby's Ubettabequeen completely unexposed, a debutant with natural ability and a strong gallop to aim at could produce a winning debut performance, as Beverley 5f on fast ground frequently sees well-bred types flourish fresh. The pace-collapse scenario makes this more plausible than the raw probability implies, as a fresh horse running into a spent field can appear to travel through the race untested.
MugheerUbettabequeenTaj Mahal PalaceOne More Tilda
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Lexington Boom's two runner-up finishes are the strongest recent exposed form in the race and if Classy Jaguar and Ard As A Rock engage in a speed duel on the far side, Lexington Boom could slip into a clean lead uncontested — watch whether Oliver Stammers positions quietly or fights for supremacy at the break.
KEY
Mugheer and Ubettabequeen are both K.R. Burke and Tim Easterby debutants respectively with zero known style — either could land on either end of the positional spectrum, and a strongly-bred unknown with natural pace could make the pace analysis redundant entirely.
WATCH
Spectacular Diver has not run for 70 days and is a front-running type; if Tim Easterby has him wound up enough to press the pace, he adds a fourth legitimate lead-seeker to an already chaotic early phase, increasing the probability of a pace collapse that benefits hold-up horses.
WATCH
Scottys Rocket and Tiggywinkle are both flagged as horses that fade in the finish — if either gets into a prominent position early due to the congestion of 14 runners, they risk creating a traffic jam for hold-up horses finishing strongly behind them in the final furlong.
NOTE
True Charm's best effort was a 2nd over 6f on good ground, and dropping back to 5f is an untested angle; watch how Warren Fentiman positions him — if he sits prominently rather than tracking midfield, the shorter trip could expose a horse whose best form came when given more time to build momentum.
2:45 — 911 At Porsche Centre Hull EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)
7½f · Good · CLS4 · 13 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
3:15 — Clearanswer Call Centres Handicap Stakes
7½f · Good · HCAP · 14 runners
Mister Sky Blue likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
The New Bay Pearl and Ryefield and Willowinghurn and Ganthorpe and Bantz and Dabbling and Mickey Mongoose led; the map had Mister Sky Blue in front.
Sir David won at 10.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Mister Sky Blue
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 9
King SharjaMickey MongooseAlice's InfluenceRyefieldPower Of ChoraGanthorpeBantzFurrst LadyElettaria
Hold Up · 4
WillowinghurnThe New Bay PearlSir DavidDabbling
Mister Sky Blue is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 14-runner handicap over 7½f at Beverley, and with just one genuine pace-setter he is likely to control proceedings from the front at a sustainable, uncontested tempo on good-to-firm ground. The bulk of the field — King Sharja, Mickey Mongoose, Alice's Influence, Bantz, Elettaria, Furrst Lady, Ryefield, Power Of Chora and Ganthorpe — are natural hold-up or rear-of-midfield horses, meaning the midfield section will be densely populated and positional battles will be fought between horses racing outside their comfort zone. This race shape strongly favours horses that can race prominently just off the leader or in the first half of the field, as the lone pace-setter is unlikely to be seriously pressured and those sitting just behind will get a clear run into the straight without burning energy early. True deep closers face a compound problem: the pace is not strong enough to force the race to come back to them, and the traffic through a bunched midfield creates an additional obstacle. The field holds considerably more hold-up types than the race shape can accommodate at the rear; of those, King Sharja and Alice's Influence are best equipped to press forward and are most likely to secure a realistic prominent position, though even they carry redistribution caveats.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Mister Sky Blue Dictates
52% probability
If Mister Sky Blue leads unopposed and sets a controlled, steady tempo that rewards those tracking him closely.
Mister Sky Blue bowls along in front at a comfortable gallop on the good-to-firm surface, and horses able to sit second or third early find themselves in the ideal position as the field fans out turning for home; the sustained pace means stamina counts late but no one benefits from a dramatically slow early pace either.
King SharjaAlice's InfluenceSir DavidWillowinghurn
B
Prominent Duo Dominate
22% probability
If King Sharja or Alice's Influence manage to push forward and sit directly on Mister Sky Blue's heels, controlling the race from the front two or three.
With two or three horses at the head of affairs sharing the work evenly, the tempo ticks along steadily enough to suit those with a turn of foot rather than pure stayers; the horse who can quicken off a sound pace rather than grind wins.
If the early pace proves genuinely fast enough to compromise the prominent horses and a well-timed late challenge lands from the pack.
A competitive early duel for position in the first few furlongs elevates the tempo and the race comes back to the closers in the final two furlongs; however this scenario is tempered by the fact that most supposed hold-up types are redistributed horses not truly suited to hunting from off the pace.
WillowinghurnSir DavidDabblingElettaria
D
Pace Collapse, Winner Plods
10% probability
If the tempo is so slow that it turns into a sprint finish in the final two furlongs and the entire field converges.
A falsely run race sees Mister Sky Blue drift to a crawl, the midfield concertinas and it becomes a 2-furlong dash; superior finishing speed at 7½f over this undulating track counts for little when the race degenerates into a dash, often favouring a horse that sneaks into a pocket and pounces.
GanthorpePower Of ChoraMickey MongooseBantz
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Mister Sky Blue (front runner) — watch whether Conor Whiteley (5lb claimer) settles him quickly out of the gates; if he is pushed along early or caught by King Sharja or Alice's Influence pressing forward, the entire race shape shifts and the steady-pace scenario collapses.
WATCH
King Sharja and Alice's Influence — both are natural hold-up horses being asked to race more prominently; watch at the start to see whether James Sullivan and Clifford Lee actually push for position, as failure to do so will leave them buried in a bunched midfield and unable to land from their preferred angles.
WATCH
The New Bay Pearl and Sir David (joint top weight 135lbs) — top weight on Beverley's undulating 7½f track is a tangible burden in a handicap; if either show signs of labouring through the home straight it confirms weight is biting, and rivals carrying 10-13lbs less will benefit materially.
NOTE
Mickey Mongoose — 67-day layoff for a 6yo wearing blinkers; watch in the paddock for any signs of freshness or edginess, as a horse returning after a long break in a 14-runner competitive handicap with a compromised positional brief is a significant each-way risk that could affect the race if it runs keenly early.
NOTE
Furrst Lady and Ryefield — both flagged as faders and both off for 58 and 11 days respectively; if either weakens dramatically in the closing stages from midfield, they risk hampering horses behind them, particularly relevant in a bunched rear-of-field scenario where closers need a clear passage.
3:45 — Jill Willows Handicap Stakes
7½f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners
4 vying for the leadHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Glenfinnan won at 6.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 4
Bell ShotHighland OllyStyle Of LifeBeyond The Bar
Prominent · 3
Alpha CaptureTattie BogleHomestrait
Midfield · 1
Intervention
Hold Up · 3
ObelixGlenfinnanFlying Fletcher
Bell Shot, Highland Olly, and Style Of Life are all confirmed front-runners, with Beyond The Bar also likely to push forward, creating a genuinely contested pace from the outset over this 7½f at Beverley on Good to Firm ground. With three or four horses demanding the early lead, the gallop will be strong and relentless, compressing the field and burning off runners who cannot settle behind a fast pace. Stamina and resolution in the closing stages will be the decisive factor, making this a race that should suit horses who travel comfortably just off the pace rather than those who have to chase it from the front or produce a late burst from well off it. The field contains more front-running types than can all secure their favoured berths — Bell Shot and Highland Olly are most likely to actually dictate, while Style Of Life and Beyond The Bar may find themselves racing wider or in a more prominent than ideal position. The race shape firmly favours prominent-to-midfield horses with proven stamina at this trip on fast ground, who can track the pace battle and pick up the pieces as the leaders tire.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Pace Battle Suits Chasers
48% probability
If Bell Shot and Highland Olly fight for supremacy and set a strong early gallop that stretches the field and leaves the front-runners vulnerable inside the final furlong.
The contested pace ensures the leaders tie each other up, leaving room for horses sitting just off the pace to deliver their challenge as the leaders empty out late on Beverley's straight finish. Prominent types who settle and travel on Good to Firm ground are the primary beneficiaries of this shape.
Alpha CaptureTattie BogleHomestraitGlenfinnan
B
One Leads, Holds On
28% probability
If Highland Olly or Bell Shot secures the rail and settles into a controlled but still honest gallop that rewards a prominent hold of the pace.
With one clear leader rather than two fighting, the pace is strong but not suicidal, and a front-runner who jumps well and settles can conserve enough to hold on through the final two furlongs. This shape most suits the horse who lands the prominent early position and does not waste energy in a speed duel.
Highland OllyBell ShotStyle Of LifeAlpha Capture
C
Midfield Sweep Late
15% probability
If the pace is truly scorching and leaders overshoot their stamina, allowing midfield runners to close strongly from two furlongs out.
A breakneck gallop from the multiple front-runners would exhaust the principals, but on fast ground at Beverley this shape demands genuine staying power and a clean passage through traffic. Horses with demonstrated ability to finish strongly over 7-8f on good ground are the ones to beat in this shape.
GlenfinnanHomestraitFlying FletcherTattie Bogle
D
Hold-Up Lands Late
9% probability
If the pace implodes into a messy, strung-out affair and a genuine hold-up horse threads through for a late run.
Intervention is the natural hold-up runner but has been mapped to midfield precisely because its true rearward role is impossible to execute with this much pace in the race; this scenario is structurally weak because the hold-up horses are not true closers in this context. Even if a late closer were to benefit, Intervention's recent form of 008770 and a sim-going record of 0W0P makes this the lowest-confidence shape.
GlenfinnanObelixInterventionFlying Fletcher
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Bell Shot and Highland Olly — watch for an immediate early battle for the lead; if both attempt to dominate from the gate the pace will be truly fierce and both may empty before the final furlong, opening the race up for the chasers behind them.
WATCH
Style Of Life returns after 89 days off and Harriet Bethell's yard is 0/6 in the last 14 days — watch her market moves and whether she settles cleanly in the early stages rather than fighting for a position she may not secure.
WATCH
Tattie Bogle ran just four days ago — monitor how sharply he moves in the market and whether there are any visible signs of fatigue in the preliminaries, as a quick turnaround at this level is a real fitness question.
NOTE
Obelix is flagged as fading in the finish — if he appears prominent early, treat that as a warning rather than a positive, as this race shape is likely to expose that tendency over the final two furlongs.|
NOTE
Intervention will almost certainly be unable to race from its natural hold-up position with this much early pace — watch whether Joanna Mason elects to push up sooner than usual, which would represent a significant change of tactics for a nine-year-old set in its ways.
4:15 — Cayenne Electric At Porsche Centre Hull Handicap Stakes
1m2f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners
Ciao Capo likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Bearwith and Princess Niyla led; the map had Ciao Capo in front.
Ciao Capo won at 3.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led.
2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Ciao Capo
Prominent · 2
No Knee NeverKitsune Power
Midfield · 3
Dr RioSunny OrangeLangton Wold
Hold Up · 2
BearwithPrincess Niyla
Ciao Capo is the confirmed front-runner here and, with no genuine challenger willing to press from the front, will dictate a controlled, honest gallop on Good to Firm ground over this flat 1m2f trip at Beverley. The pace is likely to be sustainable rather than scorching — a single leader setting a measured tempo that keeps the field strung out without creating a truly searching test of stamina. No Knee Never and Kitsune Power will look to sit prominently just behind Ciao Capo, giving themselves first run, while the remainder will be forced to work from midfield or further back. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers who can travel smoothly close to the pace and pounce before the closers can mobilise — note that Dr Rio, Sunny Orange, and Langton Wold are all genuine hold-up types pushed forward on the map because the field contains more deep closers than the shape can naturally accommodate, meaning those three are unlikely to secure their preferred position and their redistribution should be discounted accordingly.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Ciao Capo Controls Cleanly
62% probability
If Ciao Capo is allowed to bowl along uncontested and sets a sustainable fractions throughout.
Ciao Capo dictates from flag to finish on a flat track with no rival willing to hunt it down, building a lead that becomes increasingly hard to reel in on fast ground; horses drawn to race prominently just off the pace — No Knee Never and Kitsune Power — are the primary beneficiaries as they get a free passage and first run.
Kitsune PowerNo Knee NeverCiao CapoSunny Orange
B
Prominent Types Dominate
18% probability
If the pace is honest enough that Ciao Capo is caught approaching the final furlong and a prominent tracker pounces.
No Knee Never or Kitsune Power, sitting just off the leader's shoulder, hits the front as Ciao Capo ties up and has enough gas to hold on; Good to Firm ground rewards horses who travel sweetly and produce a clean one-pace finish rather than a sharp burst.
No Knee NeverKitsune PowerSunny OrangePrincess Niyla
C
Hold-Up Horse Swoops Late
13% probability
If the pace quickens enough mid-race to string the field out and leave a gap for a genuine closer to finish through.
Bearwith or Princess Niyla, operating from their natural hold-up position, finds daylight inside the final two furlongs and picks off tired rivals; this scenario is dampened by the fact that Dr Rio, Sunny Orange, and Langton Wold are all redistributed onto the map at midfield rather than being true closers, so only the naturally rearward runners benefit.
BearwithPrincess NiylaSunny OrangeDr Rio
D
Pace Collapses, Chaotic Finish
7% probability
If Ciao Capo goes off too fast for the conditions and stops dramatically in the straight, scrambling the race order.
The field concertinas in the final quarter-mile and a horse who managed energy from midfield — Bearwith or Princess Niyla — benefits from the leader's capitulation; this remains the least likely outcome given Ciao Capo's settled front-running profile and the absence of any rival applying sustained early pressure.
BearwithPrincess NiylaKitsune PowerNo Knee Never
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Kitsune Power and No Knee Never — if either gets loose cover just off Ciao Capo's heels in the first half-mile, they will be ideally positioned for a race shape that strongly rewards prominent, travelling horses.
WATCH
Ciao Capo's lead margin at the two-furlong pole — if it is still a length or more clear, its chances of lasting are materially higher; if it is being pressed, the race opens up significantly for those just behind.
WATCH
Sunny Orange's starting position in the stalls — despite redistribution on the map, if Fentiman elects to drop it out early and ride a waiting race, it could find itself too far back in a muddling pace to ever get competitive.
NOTE
Langton Wold's trip drop — coming down from marathon distances of 16-17f to 1m2f is a significant adjustment; watch whether it travels with any fluency in the early stages or is immediately struggling to find its rhythm at a faster pace than it is used to.
NOTE
Bearwith's jockey claim — Tom Kiely-Marshall's 5lb claim effectively brings this horse in on a very light weight; if the pace is genuinely honest it has the natural hold-up style to finish late, but the claimer's ability to judge pace and position in a compressed finish on this track is a variable worth monitoring.
4:45 — Nation Radio Yorkshire Handicap Stakes
5f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners
Hanney Girl to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Hanney Girl led, as the map showed.
Rumble Ruby won at 17.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Hanney Girl
Prominent · 4
Rumble RubySimba's PrideDragon SpinLamlash Bay
Midfield · 3
Kilfrush DesertBlack MissileUnder The Radar
Hold Up · 3
Straight AheadAngel NumbersQila
Hanney Girl is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with David Allan aboard for Tim Easterby, will stride straight to the lead from the gates on this straight Beverley 5f, setting a genuine but controlled pace on Good to Firm ground. The prominent contingent — Dragon Spin, Simba's Pride, Rumble Ruby, and Lamlash Bay — will press up behind her and create a solid second tier, but with only one horse actively trying to make all, the early fractions should be honest rather than suicidal, leaving Hanney Girl's lead intact into the final furlong. Black Missile is a natural prominent racer who is most likely to find himself shuffled wider and further back than he'd like, while Under The Radar — also a hold-up type redistributed to midfield on the map — will need to produce a sustained effort from behind a compressed field. This race shape — a single uncontested leader dictating a sustainable pace in front of a prominent-heavy chasing pack — strongly favours horses who can race in the slipstream of Hanney Girl and produce a sharp finishing burst in the final two furlongs, making the close-tracking prominent style the dominant profile to follow.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hanney Girl Controls and Holds
62% probability
If Hanney Girl is allowed to stride clear unchallenged and the prominent pack cannot close the gap in the final furlong.
Hanney Girl sets a measured tempo on the Good to Firm ground, and with the chase pack burning energy just to maintain contact, she holds enough in reserve to repel all challengers inside the final 100 yards; Tim Easterby's yard is firing at T14:4/60 and David Allan knows this track intimately.
Hanney GirlDragon SpinSimba's PrideRumble Ruby
B
Prominent Closers Reel Her In
22% probability
If Hanney Girl's pace is just strong enough to set things up but not to sustain, and the close-tracking prominent horses run through her in the final furlong.
Dragon Spin and Simba's Pride, both proven at 5f on Good ground with winning form at this trip, are ideally placed to swoop off the leader's back and quicken past in the closing stages; Dragon Spin's two wins on similar going (sim-going 8/12) and Simba's Pride's consistent form profile (sim-going 10/10) make both live contenders in this shape.
Dragon SpinSimba's PrideRumble RubyLamlash Bay
C
Hold-Up Horses Pounce Late
10% probability
If the pace is faster than expected and the prominent pack ties up, leaving the genuine hold-up horses with a gap to exploit late.
Angel Numbers has won twice at this course and distance on Good ground and showed sharp form last time out (back-to-back 5f wins), and Straight Ahead's hold-up style could deliver a late thrust if the field opens up; however, the compressed nature of a Beverley 5f field and the controlled pace make a clean late run less likely than in a stronger-run scenario.
Angel NumbersStraight AheadQilaUnder The Radar
D
Outsider Capitalises on Chaos
6% probability
If the prominent pack engage in a scrimmage off the pace of Hanney Girl and create a messy, compressed finish with no clear passage.
Kilfrush Desert's unknown style (U) means Kevin Ryan could instruct a flexible ride, slotting into any gap that appears; Rumble Ruby, who has won over 6f on Good ground recently, may find 5f sharp but could benefit if the race falls apart tactically.
Hanney Girl (David Allan) jumps and shows her usual front-running habits — if she opens up a comfortable two-length lead before halfway, she becomes very difficult to peg back on this Good to Firm Beverley 5f straight.
WATCH
Dragon Spin and Simba's Pride are both prominent-style horses with proven 5f Good-ground form — watch whether they can track Hanney Girl within a length through the first two furlongs, as their finish will depend entirely on how close they are at the two-pole.
WATCH
Black Missile's drawn position and the volume of prominent runners mean she may find herself racing wider and further back than connections intend — if she gets shuffled to a midfield position outside her comfort zone, her chance is materially reduced.
NOTE
Angel Numbers' back-to-back wins came on Good ground over 5f but via a hold-up style — watch whether James Sullivan can find a clear run against the far rail in the final furlong, as a traffic problem at Beverley 5f would be race-ending for a hold-up horse.
NOTE
Kilfrush Desert arrives after 56 days off and with all form over 6f — watch the market in the final hour and the way Tom Eaves positions him early; any move to the front would signal a change in tactics and shift the scenario probabilities.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.