Archive›Beverley · 22 September 2026

Beverley

22 September 2026 · 8 races

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1:30 — Churchill Tyres Apprentice Handicap Stakes

1m2f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners

Soham's Roger likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Lightning Galaxy led; the map had Soham's Roger in front.

Snooker McCrew won at 4.33 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Soham's Roger

Prominent · 4

Snooker McCrewGolden SambaQuirke On ParoleStar Suepreme

Midfield · 2

Caledonian DreamFurrst Lady

Hold Up · 6

Lightning GalaxyCaptain BruceDash of ClassTiberio ForceTwin And TonicDandy's Angel

Soham's Roger has led in one of its last two runs and will be ridden positively from stall 1, with a measured 18% chance of securing the lead; Snooker McCrew and Lightning Galaxy offer secondary pace from draws 4 and 3. If Soham's Roger gets away cleanly it should dictate an uncontested tempo, but the field contains more pace than the map can accommodate — Caledonian Dream and Furrst Lady are genuine hold-up types displaced to midfield because this race is overloaded with hold-up runners, making space more competitive than it appears. This soft pace shape strongly favours prominent runners and stalkers who can travel in the slipstream without burning energy; front-runners have a strong record over this trip and ground, but only if genuinely committed to racing, and hold-up horses face a structural disadvantage in a race short of committed pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Soham's Roger leads and dictates

18% probability

If Soham's Roger breaks well and Snooker McCrew and Lightning Galaxy sit within two lengths of it throughout

A soft, uncontested gallop suits a front-runner that can sustain pressure into the final furlong; Soham's Roger is lightly raced and may lack the seasoning to hold on late, but the shape hands it every advantage.

Soham's RogerSnooker McCrewStar SuepremeQuirke On Parole

Prominent runners pick up the pieces

44% probability

If Snooker McCrew or Star Suepreme travel through the race in the slipstream and make their move in the final quarter

Prominent racers have a superior record at this trip and ground compared to horses that held up; the soft tempo creates space for a horse with a turn of foot to attack late without having to make its own running.

Star SuepremeSnooker McCrewDandy's AngelGolden Samba

Quirke On Parole stalks and attacks

21% probability

If Quirke On Parole settles in touch with the pace and angles through at the furlong pole

It has placed twice over this distance on good going and is proven at 1m2f; the one concern is its tendency to fade in finishes, which would be exposed if forced to chase a genuinely strong gallop.

Quirke On ParoleDandy's AngelDash of ClassTiberio Force

Hold-up horses mob the finish

17% probability

If the early pace collapses into a crawl and Dandy's Angel or other rear-division runners get a clear run three furlongs out

Dandy's Angel won twice from three starts at this track and is freshly raced; however, hold-up horses are structurally disadvantaged in a field this short of committed pace, and the presence of redistributed closers fighting for late positions multiplies traffic risk.

Dandy's AngelLightning GalaxyCaptain BruceTwin And Tonic

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Star Suepreme has the clearest credentials as a prominent racer in a field that favours that profile — it has won at 8f on good and is proven over trip and ground.

WATCH

Quirke On Parole fades in finishes and must break this habit to win; if the pace remains soft it will not have enough in reserve to hold on inside the final furlong.

NOTE

Dandy's Angel is freshly raced and Wainwright-trained runners are in form (1 win from 5 in 14 days), but as a genuine hold-up horse displaced by field shape, it faces congestion in the finish.

KEY

The field is overloaded with hold-up types chasing space late; Lightning Galaxy, Furrst Lady and Caledonian Dream all need room that may not exist if the pace collapses in the final quarter.

NOTE

Soham's Roger's 18% chance of the lead assumes it breaks well from stall 1; if crowded away it loses its only edge, and at only two recent runs its stamina at 1m2f is unproven.

2:05 — Old Gravel Pits Lodges EBF Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

1m½f · Good · NOV · 4 runners

No obvious leaderHISTORICDraw: L+M · SLIGHT

How it ran

Austin led.

Bayraktar won at 2.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 0

None

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 2

BayraktarAustin

Hold Up · 2

ArthurianStellar Quest

This is a four-runner novice field with no horse showing genuine front-running credentials in recent form: all four are hold-up types or unproven. The race will drift into a sprint finish with no sustained pressure in the opening mile, allowing the field to settle into a slow tempo. Bayraktar and Austin, both genuine hold-up types, are mapped to midfield only because the field contains too many closers and too few early operators to display them at the rear; neither is likely to secure a natural prominent pitch. Arthurian, who has raced twice on good ground and shown willingness to race in the second division, is the most capable of snatching the lead if pushed, though his draw (2, neutral) offers no advantage. The race shape favours hold-up runners arriving fresh in the closing stages: slow fractions punish nothing, and the absence of a credible pace-maker hands the advantage to the horse that can pick up best in the final furlong.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Closer arrives in sprint

42% probability

If the early pace drifts and no horse takes a strong hold, hold-up types fire late in a slow-run race.

Hold-up runners thrive when the tempo is lenient; front-running is irrelevant and long-striding closers with a turn of foot will find daylight late. Arthurian's recent placed effort at 8f on good suggests he has the engine to finish strongly over 12f if given time to manoeuvre.

ArthurianBayraktarStellar QuestAustin

Stalker picks up pieces

28% probability

If Arthurian or one other runner edges forward early without establishing a dominant lead, creating a target for hold-up runners.

A soft lead invited halfway acts as a springboard for the trailing group; Bayraktar or Austin can hunt down a tiring front-runner without needing to lead themselves. This suits hold-up types pushed into a more active role.

BayraktarAustinArthurianStellar Quest

Arthurian escapes early

20% probability

If Arthurian takes the lead and establishes enough daylight to hold on through the closing furlong.

Arthurian's draw is neutral, and while his form does not scream front-runner, he has shown enough willingness to race prominently to escape an unambitious field. He would need to hold a 2–3 length advantage on the bridle.

ArthurianBayraktarAustin

Stellar Quest revives

10% probability

If Stellar Quest, absent for 115 days, finds his feet faster than expected and the race develops to suit his one prior run.

A long absence and a form line of 9 make revival unlikely; if the race turns into a test of raw pace over a long straight, he could surprise, but this field offers little pace to chase. His drawn draw (1, neutral) and Jack Nicholls' claim on a 3lb allowance offer minimal edge.

Stellar QuestArthurianBayraktar

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Arthurian's early intentions: if he settles off the pace and is not pushed to lead, the slow tempo plays to his strengths; watch whether Hart sends him forward early or rides him from behind.

WATCH

Stellar Quest's freshen-up: 115 days is a long absence; if the track is softer than the going report suggests or he regresses further, he will struggle to land a blow.

NOTE

Pace in the first mile: all four are hold-up types; if none presses forward, tempo will collapse and the winner will almost certainly come from a stalking or closing position.

NOTE

Bayraktar's ground requirements: his sole run came on soft; good ground is unproven and may not suit his racing pattern as well as the soft track he is accustomed to.

2:40 — Christmas Parties R Us Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands A, B, C And D) (GBB Race)

5f · Good · NOV · 13 runners

Star People likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Star People led, as the map showed.

Call Me Tomorrow won at 3.12 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Star People

Prominent · 3

Call Me TomorrowStriking ForceGet On That Baby

Midfield · 3

Ardad ApolloHoward's HobbyTaj Mahal Palace

Hold Up · 6

PerrystonDreamawhileRum PointMuve OnRegal AdventureWalt

Star People is the only confirmed pace type in this field and carries an 11% chance of dictating the lead — a modest expectation that reflects just one lead in six recent runs. Call Me Tomorrow (10% to lead) and Perryston (9% to lead) offer shallow alternatives, but neither has a strong forward record. If Star People does take up the running, the pace will be uncontested and moderate, with little pressure from behind to disrupt it. The field is light on front-runners and heavy on hold-up types (Rum Point, Walt, Taj Mahal Palace, Regal Adventure, Muve On, Perryston, Dreamawhile), which means most runners will be held up waiting for a kick in the closing stages. Front-runners have a strong record at this trip and going, but the lack of a credible pacemaker means the race is more likely to develop as a slow, pedestrian affair that suits a stalker or closer arriving with a late run, rather than a genuine front-runner dictating terms. Hold-up horses will get their chance if the tempo stays modest.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Stalker picks up soft pace

42% probability

If Star People leads but no one presses hard, a prominent racer can position and pounce late.

A soft, uncontested lead creates room for a horse positioned in second or third to slide through in the final furlong. Call Me Tomorrow and Get On That Baby, both with recent evidence of racing prominently, are ideally placed to exploit a lack of pressure.

Call Me TomorrowGet On That BabyStar PeopleStriking Force

Hold-up arrival on moderate tempo

38% probability

If pace remains subdued throughout, a horse held up can arrive fresh in the final strides.

The heavy hold-up bias in this field means multiple runners will be waiting, but the 5f trip leaves little room for error; the winner will need to time a run very precisely. Regal Adventure, Muve On and Dreamawhile all have recent outings at this trip and can pounce if the dawdle creates a gap.

Regal AdventureMuve OnRum PointDreamawhile

Star People leads and holds on

11% probability

If Star People gets the lead early and the field fails to mount a serious challenge.

Star People's modest forward record and the rider's habit of going forward create a scenario where it dictates, but with little tactical pressure from the field it will need to sustain that lead under a hands-and-heels ride. This suits a front-runner's profile at the trip, but the odds are limited by the horse's own likelihood of getting there.

Star PeopleCall Me TomorrowStriking ForceGet On That Baby

Perryston or Call Me Tomorrow controls

9% probability

If either establishes a forward position and the field struggles to respond.

Perryston has 64 days since last run and fades in the final furlong, making it a risky option; Call Me Tomorrow pulled hard recently and also fades, leaving neither as a natural pace anchor. A race controlled by either would rely on mid-race luck rather than tactical strength.

Call Me TomorrowPerrystonGet On That BabyStriking Force

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Star People is the only credible pace provider but has led in only one of six recent runs; if it does not get the lead and Call Me Tomorrow or Perryston are forced forward instead, both will fade in the final stages and leave the race wide open to a closer.

WATCH

Call Me Tomorrow pulled hard recently and fades in finishes; it may establish a prominent position early but will tire if pushed harder than expected, creating chaos in the final furlong.

WATCH

The field contains seven hold-up types competing for the same real estate; a slow pace will reward one of them, but a sudden injection of speed by Get On That Baby or Striking Force could cut down the closers before they land.

NOTE

Taj Mahal Palace is a true hold-up runner mapped to midfield because the balance of the field is weighted to the rear; discount any scenario where it is shown winning from its charted position.

NOTE

Ardad Apollo and Howard's Hobby are unrated debutantes on unknown ground; if either shows early pace, it could steal the race, but they carry no form evidence and should be treated as ballast.

3:15 — Eddie And Violet Smith Conditions Stakes (GBB Race)

5f · Good · CLS2 · 7 runners

Jm Jungle likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Toca Madera and Ain't Nobody led; the map had Jm Jungle in front.

Toca Madera won at 3.25 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Jm Jungle

Prominent · 2

JakajaroToca Madera

Midfield · 2

Wor FaaythBadri

Hold Up · 2

Ain't NobodyOpal Storm

Jm Jungle is the only genuine front-runner in this field, with a 22% measured chance of securing the lead. Jakajaro, Toca Madera and Badri (a redistributed prominent type shown in midfield) will race positively but are unlikely to dictate the tempo themselves if Jungle gets away. If Jm Jungle leads, the pace should be uncontested and modest, suiting a horse that can settle and quicken late or match its fractions. This field contains more pace-oriented runners than can all secure their natural positions, which means front-runners have a tangible edge on Good going at 5f — they won at 1.57 times the expected rate over this trip and ground — but only if one actually gets in front cleanly and controls matters. The most likely outcome is Jm Jungle in a clear lead from early, which would suit any runner capable of tracking and finishing strongly; if Jungle fails to lead, a muddled mid-race contest favours the most tactical, adaptable runner in the mix.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Jungle leads and holds

20% probability

If Jm Jungle breaks well and dictates a steady, uncontested pace from the front.

Front-runners have a strong record at this trip and going, and a clear tempo setter makes their task easier: anything tracking from just behind gets an honest gallop to quicken into. Jm Jungle's own profile suits this role despite recent mid-field runs, as the rider and yard favour forward tactics.

Jm JungleToca MaderaJakajaroBadri

Prominent types vie, closer arrives

35% probability

If Jakajaro, Toca Madera or Badri dispute the lead early and cut out the work, then one of the hold-up horses (Ain't Nobody or Opal Storm) picks them off late.

A contested early pace favours a runner waiting just off the tempo: Ain't Nobody has not won from hold-up in this pattern, but on a quick 5f track with good ground, a stalker timing a move for the final furlong gains real advantage. The shorter trip and genuine pace pressure make late acceleration more potent than sustained front-running.

Ain't NobodyOpal StormJm JungleJakajaro

Badri seizes control

26% probability

If Badri (a true prominent runner forced into a midfield map slot) breaks and forces its way to the front, outpacing Jungle and the other mid-pacers early.

Badri's form on Good ground and 5f is strong — four wins and five places from 15 recent runs — and if allowed to race its natural style without interference, it has both the rating and recent record to see off this field. Its jockey and yard back forward tactics, and at nine years old with a winning profile here, an unimpeded run through to victory becomes viable.

BadriJakajaroJm JungleToca Madera

Chaos, Jakajaro punishes

19% probability

If multiple horses commit forward simultaneously and the race becomes disorganized early, with no clear leader emerging until halfway.

Jakajaro, despite moderate recent form (two wins from eight runs), has proven credentials at this trip on Good and a tactically sharp jockey in Jamie Spencer who can exploit a muddled tempo. Its rating of 108 equals Jm Jungle's, and in an unstructured contest it may slip through and deliver a late run from an uncompromised position.

JakajaroJm JungleAin't NobodyBadri

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Badri is genuinely capable of dictating if allowed to race forward; its 5f and Good-ground record is stronger than the map position suggests, and at 9yo with a jockey prepared to push forward, it could steal this race outright.

WATCH

Jm Jungle must break cleanly and establish the lead early; any hesitation or reluctance at the gate hands the advantage to Jakajaro or Toca Madera, both of which are younger and fresher, and a muddled mid-race plays against the front-runner profile.

NOTE

The field lacks a strong hold-up horse: Ain't Nobody and Opal Storm have poor recent winning records despite the going and trip suiting them, so any late-runner scenario depends entirely on a very soft early pace — unlikely given four genuine pace types in the line-up.

NOTE

Jamie Spencer on Jakajaro and Daniel Tudhope on Toca Madera are both tactical riders who thrive in unstructured races; if neither Jungle nor Badri dominates early, a chaotic tempo could very much suit them over the front-running alternatives.

3:50 — John Allinson 90th Birthday Handicap Stakes

5f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners

Under The Radar likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Under The Radar led, as the map showed.

Go Victor won at 13.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Under The Radar

Prominent · 1

Battenburg Belle

Midfield · 2

Sparkling WineDinamo

Hold Up · 2

Black MissileGo Victor

Under The Radar is the only confirmed front-runner in this six-runner field and will almost certainly dictate if it takes the lead, which its recent record suggests it should — led in three of its last six runs and came home in front last time. Battenburg Belle will race prominently from draw six but lacks the same pattern of going forward; the remaining runners are either hold-up or midfield types with no obvious pace credentials. The uncontested nature of the lead, combined with front-runners' strong record over this trip and ground, strongly favours a horse that can settle in front or close to it early and control the race. Hold-up runners are poorly served by this shape and ground.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Under The Radar leads and dictates

31% probability

If Under The Radar breaks and establishes the lead as its recent form suggests.

The pace will remain steady with no challenger capable of upsetting the tempo; Under The Radar carries the advantage home. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going, and an uncontested lead plays to that strength.

Under The RadarBattenburg BelleSparkling WineGo Victor

Battenburg Belle presses and outkicks late

28% probability

If Battenburg Belle takes the pace battle and finds an extra gear in the final furlong.

Battenburg Belle's recent form shows three wins in the last 15 starts and it has won on Good ground at this distance; it can press from draw six and wear down a tiring front-runner. Prominent runners have delivered solid returns over five furlongs on this surface.

Battenburg BelleSparkling WineUnder The RadarGo Victor

Sparkling Wine or Black Missile steals it at odds

24% probability

If the pace collapses or the leaders falter and a fresher runner capitalizes.

Sparkling Wine has finished in the frame on Good at this trip and Black Missile's hold-up style keeps powder dry; either can pick off tired legs in the closing strides. Midfield and hold-up horses rarely profit over this ground, but a soft pace invites the exception.

Sparkling WineBlack MissileBattenburg BelleGo Victor

Go Victor breaks through from the middle

17% probability

If Go Victor breaks smartly and races into a takeable position three furlongs out.

Go Victor has a win and two places from eight runs on Good ground and showed placing form at six furlongs; it suits a race where the early pace is genuine but contestable. This scenario requires both pace-setters to fade and a midfield runner to find room — an unlikely combination on this ground.

Go VictorBattenburg BelleUnder The RadarSparkling Wine

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Under The Radar has led in three of its last six and came home in front last time; if David Allan and Tim Easterby execute their established tactic, it will be difficult to peg back in an uncontested lead over five furlongs.

WATCH

Dinamo has not raced for over a year and returns with no recent evidence on this ground or trip; monitor the market for signs of a major confidence move, as any smart money would normally be suspect under these circumstances.

NOTE

Battenburg Belle's form at six furlongs (two wins) is markedly stronger than at five furlongs; it may need a searching pace to come from draw six and outkick a front-runner that has an 14-day freshness advantage.

NOTE

The presence of four hold-up or midfield types in a six-runner field leaves little tactical variety; if Under The Radar or Battenburg Belle gets a soft lead, closers will struggle to find cover or ground.

4:25 — Fango Handicap Stakes (Div I)

7½f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Lead contested: This Farh v YaniferHISTORICDraw: L+M · SLIGHT

How it ran

Yanifer led, as the map showed.

Coolree won at 19.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

This FarhYanifer

Prominent · 1

Supreme Clarets

Midfield · 3

CoolreeVixeyCount Palatine

Hold Up · 4

Mythical PhoenixCotai Eye JoeMisunderstoodMr King

This Farh and Yanifer are both confirmed front-runners, and both are likely to press for the lead from the off, creating a contested early pace. This Farh has won twice over this trip on good ground and led in 4 of its last 6 runs; Yanifer has also led in 4 of its last 6, though it fades in the finish and pulled hard recently. The field contains no credible third pace-maker, so the battle between these two will shape the race: if they run hard at each other, they will set an honest tempo that front-runners have historically exploited over this trip and ground, recording a 17.5% win rate from 852 runs. The lack of a prominent challenger means the race will be driven by the leading pair, and a fast early pace will leave room for either a stalker to pick up the pieces late or the leading horse to hold on—favour a runner who can either press both leaders or arrive fresh in the final furlong.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Stalker takes advantage of hot pace

38% probability

If This Farh and Yanifer war for the lead and neither can sustain it past five furlongs.

The early war between the front two will soften both; a horse settled in midfield with a turn of foot profits from the attrition. Over this trip, front-runners have been heavily backed in the market but fail to stay the trip often enough—a fresh runner arriving in the closing stages has the edge.

VixeyCoolreeSupreme ClaretsCount Palatine

This Farh dictates and holds

27% probability

If This Farh steals the lead early and Yanifer cannot match its pace or fades as expected.

This Farh has won twice over 7.5 furlongs on good ground and is the most proven front-runner in the race. If it can establish a clear lead by halfway and control the tempo to its liking, its two-furlong advantage on the form book will be enough to fend off late arrivals.

This FarhMr KingCount PalatineMisunderstood

Yanifer runs on early but fades late

19% probability

If Yanifer forces the pace initially but struggles to hold on in the final furlong as its recent pulling hard and finish-fading pattern recurs.

Yanifer will likely show early speed and may even lead into the straight, but its record of tailing off in the closing stages and recent signs of over-racing mean a more durable rival will find it out. Horses with consistent form over the trip will capitalize as Yanifer weakens.

Supreme ClaretsVixeyCoolreeCount Palatine

Pace collapses; closers prosper

16% probability

If the front two fail to produce a truly fast pace, or if both are quickly swallowed up.

A slow-burn race with fitful early pressure will reward hold-up horses and late-arriving types; Misunderstood and Mr King have solid records at Beverley and on good ground and may never be worse placed. The lack of a third genuine pace-maker means tempo could flatline, negating the front-runner advantage.

MisunderstoodMr KingMythical PhoenixCotai Eye Joe

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

This Farh and Yanifer meeting head-on early will decide whether the pace is truly hot or whether one horse can soak up pressure and build a clear lead—if Yanifer breaks and falls back early, the race becomes a procession.

WATCH

Vixey and Coolree must navigate the early scrap for the lead without being dislodged into a worse position; both are capable of hitting the front late but will waste energy if caught in the midfield traffic created by the warring front two.

NOTE

Supreme Clarets is top-rated and primed to strike late; monitor whether it is allowed to settle in a prominent box or whether the field's tactical complexity forces it to chase from further back.

KEY

Yanifer's recent pulling hard and finish-fading pattern is non-negotiable; it will lead or press hard early but has given every sign it will not sustain that effort, making any plan centred on it holding on a structural risk.

NOTE

If the front two spend themselves and no credible closer is within striking distance by halfway, a mid-paced runner like Count Palatine or Coolree can drift into contention almost by default—watch how the field's shape settles after three furlongs.

5:00 — Fango Handicap Stakes (Div II)

7½f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Style of Life likeliest to leadHISTORICDraw: L+M · SLIGHT

How it ran

Style of Life led, as the map showed.

Mudamer won at 8.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Style of Life

Prominent · 2

GlenfinnanMudamer

Midfield · 2

Light SpeedFolkene

Hold Up · 4

Star MaterialNursiaObelixTattie Bogle

Style of Life has a measured 22% chance of getting the lead; Glenfinnan and Mudamer, both prominent types, together account for another 34% of the lead opportunities in this race. If Style of Life leads, it will set an uncontested pace—the horse has led once in its last three runs and the yard (Bethell, 1 from 8 in 14 days) does not force the issue habitually. Glenfinnan is a pulled-hard recent runner in a form dip (9-4-2 last six), while Mudamer has solid recent form but sits draw 1 (neutral) and must overcome a slight positional disadvantage. The field contains genuine hold-up types—Light Speed and Folkene—redistributed to midfield because there are too many closers and too few shown front-runners; they are unlikely to secure their natural rear position in a race where only one true front-runner is likely to get loose up front. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip here, but the uncontested nature of the probable pace and the presence of strong closing types make this a race where a stalker—Tattie Bogle, the Strand top pick—is better placed to pounce late than a backmarker left chasing shadows. This shape slightly favours prominent racers and stalkers over early leaders and deep closers.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Stalker picks up soft pace

38% probability

If Style of Life leads uncontested and fades in the closing stages

Prominent runners shadowing the pace will move into striking position as the eventual leader tires; Tattie Bogle (2-7-2 last six on good, well-treated by the handicapper) and Mudamer (3 wins, 3 places from 9 on good turf) are ideally placed. The strong record of front-runners here is rendered irrelevant if they cannot maintain pressure, and a professional finisher will punish a lone leader.

Tattie BogleMudamerGlenfinnanObelix

Glenfinnan leads and holds on

22% probability

If Glenfinnan takes the lead early and the field settles into a rhythm chase

Glenfinnan has led once in recent runs (last time out at 8f), pulled hard, and the yard is in modest form; if it gets the break and controls the race, front-runners have won nearly a fifth of races over this trip. The slight draw advantage (3 is neutral but favours left-to-middle) and the absence of a strong challenger up front give it a chance to steal home.

GlenfinnanStyle of LifeMudamerTattie Bogle

Hold-up type storms through

20% probability

If Light Speed or Folkene—true closers forced into midfield—find room and acceleration in the final furlong

Both have led in far fewer races than Tattie Bogle and are racing out of their comfort zone in a field with genuine pace on; however, if the pace collapses and they get a gap, their closing speed could prove decisive. Light Speed has been absent 277 days and Folkene recent (8 days), adding unpredictability to a long-shot profile.

Light SpeedFolkeneNursiaStar Material

Mudamer edges rival pace-setters

20% probability

If Mudamer breaks well from draw 1, shadows Glenfinnan or Style of Life, and outfinishes them

Mudamer holds solid recent form (3-3-6 last six) and handles good ground well (5 wins from 9); draw 1 is neutral, but its profile as a minor prominent type gives it fewer direct advantages than Tattie Bogle. This scenario assumes a two-way tussle at the head rather than a collapse, narrowing its appeal.

MudamerGlenfinnanTattie BogleObelix

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

If Style of Life breaks well and Glenfinnan does not establish early control, the race may fall into a moderate gallop that Tattie Bogle can dominate in the straight.

WATCH

Glenfinnan's recent pulling hard and form dip (9-4-2 last six) suggest it may not have the freshness to hold a lead; a fade late would hand the race to Mudamer or a stalker.

NOTE

Light Speed (277 days off) and Folkene are both true closers mapped to midfield; if neither gets room, the pace scenario collapses and Tattie Bogle's advantage grows.

KEY

Obelix pulled hard 17 days ago and is entered as a hold-up type in decline; monitor for signs of stress in the parade ring or reluctance to settle.

5:35 — End Of Season Handicap Stakes

1m½f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

Snaafy to leadHISTORICDraw: L+M · SLIGHT

How it ran

Amber Hamur led; the map had Snaafy in front.

Horwich won at 10.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Snaafy

Prominent · 4

Amber HamurBuckland BelleBlue MantleOnly Dream Big

Midfield · 3

DalamaraPilgrim's ProgressItszaboy

Hold Up · 3

ElizabettyTurtle ReefHorwich

Snaafy is the only confirmed front-runner and will likely lead from the draw; Kevin Stott's mount has led in four of its last six runs and was in front last time, though it pulled hard and faded in the finish. Amber Hamur and Buckland Belle will race prominently but neither is a natural pace-setter, so if Snaafy takes them on early, the tempo should remain uncontested through the middle stages. The race will almost certainly be decided by mid-field runners and hold-up horses who can pick up a tiring leader: front-runners have won only one in six over this distance and ground in the past year, while closers arrive late to punish a crawling pace. This field contains more prominent types than can all hold that position—Itszaboy is a genuine prominent racer mapped to midfield because Amber Hamur, Buckland Belle and Only Dream Big will occupy the natural stalking slots—and that compression favours late runners. The tactical verdict is clear: hold-up horses and midfield runners will benefit most, because Snaafy is likely to set the tempo alone and fade under pressure in the final furlong.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Late runners profit

44% probability

If Snaafy leads and tires in the final quarter, a hold-up horse arrives to strike.

Fading front-runner hands opportunity to Horwich, Elizabetty or Turtle Reef, who have ground to make up but conserve energy in a slow-to-middle pace. Hold-up horses have won only one in every eighteen races over this trip, but that penalty applies equally to all shapes; the real edge here is tactical—a lone leader burning fuel early will tire.

HorwichElizabettyTurtle ReefBuckland Belle

Prominent racer settles it

35% probability

If Amber Hamur or Buckland Belle break Snaafy's grip in the straight and pull clear.

One of the two most-consistent prominent runners finds a gear Snaafy cannot match and uses superior finishing pace over the final two furlongs. Both have won multiple races on good ground and at this trip; both have jockeys and trainers who get horses ready to strike mid-race.

Amber HamurBuckland BelleOnly Dream BigSnaafy

Snaafy controls throughout

16% probability

If Snaafy settles better than expected and nothing can get close enough to trouble it in the straight.

Stott steadies the colt early, the pace becomes genuinely steady, and Snaafy's lead-from-pace profile—reinforced by Loughnane's yard habit of going forward—holds up. The danger here is that Snaafy's own form (led but faded last time; zero wins in sim-going conditions) argues against this outcome, but if the tempo is slow enough, even a tiring front-runner can hold on.

SnaafyOnly Dream BigAmber HamurBuckland Belle

Midfield horse emerges

5% probability

If the leading group fractures without a clear winner and Pilgrim's Progress or Dalamara finds the gap in the final furlong.

Neutral-drawn midfield types slip through while Snaafy and the prominent brigade cancel each other out; both runners have winning form and suit this ground, but the field is too congested and well-matched for a long-odds midfield coup to look likely.

Pilgrim's ProgressDalamaraOnly Dream BigAmber Hamur

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Snaafy may get the lead but pulled hard and faded badly last time—if Amber Hamur or Buckland Belle settles closer and strikes in the final quarter, it has no answer.

WATCH

Buckland Belle and Amber Hamur have won too recently and too often on this ground to ignore; one of them is the most likely winner if the tempo stays moderate.

NOTE

Itszaboy, a genuine prominent type, is squeezed into midfield and forced to race out of role; discount its impact in any scenario that requires it to get to the front.

NOTE

Elizabetty and Horwich profile as hold-up horses and favour a slow pace with a tiring leader, but Horwich's form (606U29) is patchy and Elizabetty hasn't run in 10 days—timing is uncertain.

NOTE

Blue Mantle's 94-day absence and recent dirt/soft-ground runs suggest this good-ground turf race comes too soon; do not expect a fresh run from an unraced horse in a competitive handicap.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 22 September 2026.

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