1:35 — Lady Jane Bethell Memorial Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes
1m2f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners
Perfidia likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Alazwar led; the map had Perfidia in front.
Alazwar won at 17.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Perfidia
Prominent · 2
Sunny OrangeStar Start
Midfield · 3
Little SheAlazwarThe Pug
Hold Up · 2
SandretStipulation
Perfidia is the sole confirmed front-runner and, on Good to Firm ground at Beverley, is expected to bowl along at a sustainable gallop without any genuine challenger for the lead — Sunny Orange and Star Start are the nearest prominent types but neither has the profile to seriously pressure Perfidia for the front. This creates a controlled, single-file race from flag to flag, with the pace likely to be honest enough on this flat 1m2f trip to keep hold-up horses honest, but not truly searching. The field contains more prominent and hold-up horses than the map can accommodate naturally: Little She, Alazwar, and The Pug are all genuine positional types who will be unable to secure their preferred berths, with Sunny Orange and Star Start most likely to lock in the prominent slots behind Perfidia. The tactical verdict here favours horses who can race close to the controlled pace and travel within themselves — specifically prominent and close-tracking profiles — as the steady but uncontested gallop set by Perfidia will reward those who do not give ground away early and can deliver sustained, rather than explosive, finishes.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Perfidia Controls, Prominent Pair Chase
62% probability
If Perfidia leads uncontested and sets a fair but manageable pace, allowing Sunny Orange and Star Start to track comfortably.
Perfidia dictates every yard from a position of complete authority, and the prominent trackers behind benefit from covering minimal ground and arriving at the business end full of racing; the Good to Firm surface rewards those who have been close throughout rather than those asked to produce a big late run from off the pace. This is the dominant shape — a clean, processional race where positional advantage at halfway translates directly into finishing position.
Sunny OrangeStar StartPerfidiaSandret
B
Perfidia Dictates, Closer Lands Blow
19% probability
If Perfidia's gallop is just fast enough to string out the field, allowing one of the genuine hold-up types to deliver late from a true rearward position.
Sandret, who has the strongest hold-up profile and recent winning form, would be the principal beneficiary if the pace is sufficient to create a gap between the winner and the prominent bunch; on Good to Firm ground she has demonstrated she can finish with purpose. The scenario requires the pace to be faster than expected given Perfidia's tendency to find a comfortable rhythm, making this a secondary rather than primary shape.
SandretStipulationAlazwarThe Pug
C
Contested Early, Prominent Scramble
12% probability
If Sunny Orange or Star Start pushes up to dispute the lead and unsettles Perfidia's rhythm, creating a more pressured gallop.
A faster pace than expected would compress finishing times and reward horses with tactical versatility, potentially exposing Perfidia late; Sunny Orange's consistent prominent form and Tim Easterby's yard in good nick make this a credible if not dominant threat. However this outcome relies on horses racing in a slightly more competitive manner than their individual profiles suggest, and the benefit remains with those positioned ahead of midfield.
Sunny OrangeStar StartPerfidiaSandret
D
Redistribution Chaos, Surprise Closer
7% probability
If the field bunches and jostles for position early, leaving the redistributed types — Alazwar, The Pug, Little She — stuck further back than their adjusted map positions imply.
These three are true hold-up or prominent horses racing out of role, and even in a scrambled race they are unlikely to produce decisive late moves given trip, going, and the steady nature of Perfidia's likely gallop; this scenario is assigned low probability precisely because it depends on horses tagged as out of role delivering against their current positional disadvantage. An unexpected result from this group would require a material pace collapse that the data does not support.
Little SheAlazwarThe PugStipulation
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Perfidia's ability to lead uncontested without any early challenge is the single biggest factor shaping this race — if she clears cleanly from the gates, the entire race is run to her rhythm and the prominent tracking pair become the primary beneficiaries.|
WATCH
Sunny Orange and Star Start could create a mild jostle for the prominent slots behind Perfidia in the first furlong; if either pushes up and forces an earlier-than-expected pace, the race shape shifts meaningfully away from Scenario A.|
WATCH
Sandret's hold-up style is legitimate, but on a flat Beverley track over 1m2f with a steady front-runner, watch whether he gets enough pace to aim at — if the gallop is truly sedate, his finishing effort may arrive too late to matter.|
NOTE
Alazwar, The Pug, and Little She are all racing at least partially out of positional role today — if any one of them gets shuffled wide or loses ground at the start, the gap to bridge on Good to Firm ground will be significant given Perfidia's likely metronomic pace.|
NOTE
The going report consistently lists this 1m2f as Good to Firm, which rewards prominent and pace-positive profiles — horses with a history of finishing strongly on the quicker end of Good ground (Perfidia, Sunny Orange) carry a surface advantage over those whose best form came on Soft or Standard.|
2:10 — Thank You Kathy Burne Selling Handicap Stakes
1m4f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners
No obvious leaderHISTORIC
How it ran
Head Girl led.
Head Girl won at 3.12 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 0
None
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 5
Character TestingHead GirlLa TriniteBlackwater LillyRuler Of The River
Hold Up · 2
Talking In KodePorter's Song
This 1m4f Beverley contest on Good to Firm ground is a peculiar shape: every single runner carries a hold-up profile, meaning there is no confirmed front-runner and the field is likely to crawl into the straight before exploding into a sprint finish over the final two furlongs. With Porter's Song, Talking In Kode, Character Testing, La Trinite, Blackwater Lilly, Ruler Of The River, and Head Girl all preferring to race off the pace, whoever gets shuffled to the front reluctantly will be doing so against their natural instincts, likely producing a falsely slow early tempo. The race will almost certainly be won by whichever horse picks up sharpest from a dawdling gallop, meaning raw acceleration and a high cruising speed into the straight matter far more than stamina here. This shape strongly favours the horse with the best finishing kick from a compact, bunched field — a true hold-up finisher with a sharp turn of foot on quick ground is the profile to side with, while those who lack that late gear will be found out by the sprint nature of the finale.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Sprint Finish From Pack
44% probability
If the field crawls early and explodes into a bunched sprint over the final two furlongs on the Good to Firm surface.
With no pace-setter, the tempo will be pedestrian and the race reduced to a flat-out dash home, rewarding the sharpest accelerator from a tight group; Good to Firm ground amplifies the advantage of a quick-twitch finisher.
Talking In KodeLa TrinitePorter's SongHead Girl
B
Strong Closer Gets Gap
24% probability
If one runner manages to find clear daylight on the outside turning in and sustains a run all the way to the line.
A horse that angles widest into the straight avoids traffic in the bunched finish and sustains momentum on the fast surface; the compressed pace means getting a clean run is the single biggest tactical advantage.
Ruler Of The RiverCharacter TestingBlackwater LillyLa Trinite
C
Reluctant Leader Dictates
20% probability
If one runner is nudged or drifts to the front early and, finding themselves alone, builds a small but decisive lead.
A horse front-running against its nature can still steal the race if rivals are slow to challenge from the back of the pack; the fast ground means any lead built even at a modest pace is hard to reel in if rivals leave their run too late.
Porter's SongHead GirlTalking In KodeBlackwater Lilly
D
Pace Collapse Suits Stoic
12% probability
If the tempo surges mid-race unevenly, stringing the field out and creating a stamina test rather than a sprint.
An uneven gallop with a sustained middle section would suit the horse with the best proven form at a mile and a half on good ground, filtering out those relying purely on acceleration.
Blackwater LillyCharacter TestingRuler Of The RiverLa Trinite
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Talking In Kode is the only three-year-old in the field and carries the lightest weight at 127lbs — in a sprint finish, that allowance could be decisive if Cian Horgan (5lb claimer) times the run well.|
WATCH
With all seven runners holding up naturally, watch for severe traffic problems in the straight as the field bunches — horses on the widest outside draw may have a significant advantage.|
WATCH
Ruler Of The River's cheekpieces and tongue-strap combination (tp) is worth monitoring in the parade ring — if he is fractious or early to settle, that could undermine his chance in a race that requires a clean, controlled hold-up run.|
NOTE
La Trinite and Blackwater Lilly both run for Neil King — if King's two runners track each other, one may block the other's run, so watch how Dougie Costello and Paul Mulrennan position them relative to each other from the outset.|
2:45 — EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Band D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)
5f · Good · CLS5 · 14 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
3:20 — 30 Years Of The Hurn Racing Club EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
7½f · Good · NOV · 4 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
3:55 — Hoof Hustle Handicap Stakes
7½f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners
Napolian likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Carolus Magnus led; the map had Napolian in front.
Norcross Brow won at 2.10 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
0 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Napolian
Prominent · 2
MasabanCarolus Magnus
Midfield · 3
DumfriesWillowinghurnWalk On Walk On
Hold Up · 2
Norcross BrowLady Hornblower
Napolian is the confirmed lone front-runner here, and on Good to Firm at Beverley over 7½f he is expected to bowl along at a sustainable, uncontested gallop without any rival willing or able to press him hard. Masaban and Carolus Magnus are the other prominent types likely to track closely just off the pace, giving the race a compact, bunched look in the early stages rather than a strongly-run affair. With Dumfries redistibuted from his natural prominent berth and the hold-up brigade of Norcross Brow, Lady Hornblower, Willowinghurn and Walk On Walk On all needing something to come back to them late, this is a race that sets up primarily for stalkers who can sit within a length or two of the leader and pounce in the straight. The field contains more prominent/hold-up types than the pace map can naturally accommodate — Dumfries, Willowinghurn and Walk On Walk On are genuine pace or hold-up horses pushed out of their true roles — meaning Napolian's chance of dictating a controlled tempo is high and the race shape strongly favours horses racing prominently in second or third, close to the fractions, rather than closers relying on a truly searching gallop to set up a late run.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Napolian Controls, Stalkers Strike
62% probability
If Napolian leads unmolested and the pace is steady enough to suit horses racing second or third throughout.
Napolian sets a fair clip without being pressed and the prominent trackers Masaban and Carolus Magnus are ideally placed to pounce inside the final furlong; the lack of a genuine pace duel means stamina-sapping fractions never materialise, rewarding horses who can quicken off a sensible tempo.
MasabanCarolus MagnusNapolianNorcross Brow
B
Pace Collapse, Front Pair Clear
18% probability
If Napolian's steady fractions allow him to coast into the straight with Masaban or Carolus Magnus never fully reeled in.
A soft pace turns the final 2½f into a sprint and Napolian, unburdened by a hard early race, finds more in the tank than expected; Carolus Magnus, with two recent wins at 7f Good, is dangerous as a staying-on second if the winner is already gone.
NapolianCarolus MagnusMasabanNorcross Brow
C
Hold-Up Horse Late Surge
13% probability
If the pace is deceptively honest and the hold-up horses, despite being shuffled back, manage to generate genuine late momentum.
Norcross Brow, a genuine hold-up type in natural role, is best placed of the rear contingent having won over 7f Good recently and pairs with Jason Hart's positive forcing tactics; Lady Hornblower's market drift at 67 days off is a concern but her sim-going figures give her a slim claims if stamina counts.
Norcross BrowLady HornblowerWalk On Walk OnWillowinghurn
D
Chaos — Pace Scrambles Early
7% probability
If Dumfries pushes forward against type and creates a contested early pace, unsettling Napolian's rhythm.
A scrappy early pace burns off Napolian sooner than expected and opens the door for a fresher mid-division horse to coast through; Norcross Brow and Walk On Walk On, both with 8f Good form, may benefit marginally but this shape relies on horses racing out of role and is inherently less reliable.
Norcross BrowMasabanWalk On Walk OnCarolus Magnus
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Napolian's early position is critical — if David Nolan settles him cleanly in front without a rival forcing the issue, he dictates the entire race shape; any hesitation or challenge for the lead from Dumfries in the opening furlong would fundamentally alter the pace dynamic.
WATCH
Dumfries is mapped to midfield but is a genuine prominent racer — James Sullivan may attempt to push forward regardless, and if he does he puts pressure on Napolian earlier than expected, potentially compressing the advantage for trackers Masaban and Carolus Magnus.
WATCH
Lady Hornblower's 67-day layoff combined with a trainer who is 0/2 in the 14-day window and ground that may be quicker than her best form warrants makes her a notable risk for those framing multiples — monitor market support at the off.
NOTE
Carolus Magnus's course-and-distance profile is strong (won 7f Good 36 days ago) and Joanna Mason's 3lb claim reduces his topweight burden to an effective competitive level — if the stalker scenario unfolds he should be prominent at the business end.
NOTE
Norcross Brow is the standout hold-up horse with genuine credentials at the trip and going, and Jason Hart will be looking to make ground from the turn in — watch whether any sustainable pace develops in the middle stages to give him something to aim at.
4:30 — It's Ladies Day Next On 12 August Handicap Stakes
5f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners
Empress Olivia likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Without Flaw led; the map had Empress Olivia in front.
Azuinthejungle won at 3.75 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Empress Olivia
Prominent · 1
Azuinthejungle
Midfield · 4
Golden HavanaCrafty SpiritWithout FlawOpal Storm
Hold Up · 3
Le Beau GarconJojo RabbitSpeeding Bullet
Empress Olivia is the lone confirmed front-runner in this 5f Beverley handicap and, with no genuine challenger for the lead, she is set to bowl along at a measured, uncontested gallop on Good to Firm ground that will suit her stamina profile. Azuinthejungle is the only other horse with natural prominent intent and will press forward to track Empress Olivia, but the bulk of the field — Golden Havana, Crafty Spirit, Without Flaw, Opal Storm and Le Beau Garcon — are genuine hold-up types shuffled into midfield by the sheer density of closers in this nine-runner field and will have to navigate traffic rather than simply sit where they please. With pace likely to be controlled and comfortable rather than scorching over 5f on fast ground, the early gallop will not be truly searching, meaning the front two will conserve energy and the closers face an uphill task to generate enough late momentum to run them down. This race shape strongly favours prominent or pace-pressing runners — specifically those with the ability to track a lone leader and quicken from a handy position — over the true hold-up types who are structurally disadvantaged by the lack of a truly contested early pace.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Empress Olivia Dictates Unchallenged
58% probability
If Empress Olivia breaks cleanly and is allowed to set a controlled, solo gallop with Azuinthejungle the only horse in close pursuit, the race is run to suit confirmed front-runners.
Empress Olivia sets an honest but not suicidal tempo on ground that has been riding fast all day, and the hold-up contingent — shuffled into false midfield positions — never generate enough late zip to reel in the front two.
If the pace is faster than expected due to Azuinthejungle pressing hard and the front pair burning out before the furlong pole, creating a true-run race for the closers.
A genuinely contested gallop compresses finish times and allows the legitimate hold-up horses to close with real purpose; those with recent winning form at this trip on similar ground come into their own.
If Azuinthejungle tracks Empress Olivia closely and surges past in the final furlong while the solo leader fades from her uncontested lead.
Azuinthejungle's recent course-and-distance form and good-ground record make her the natural heir to any lead that softens in the closing stages, and she has the class ratings to confirm superiority.
If Empress Olivia misses the break or is forced wider than ideal, scrambling the entire pace shape and triggering a messy, falsely-run race.
In the ensuing chaos, horses with tactical versatility and recent sharp form benefit most, but no single profile holds a clear edge; low-draw handy types are best positioned to capitalise on the disorder.
Empress Olivia's break is pivotal — if she misses the stalls or is crowded early, the entire race shape collapses and every probability shifts dramatically toward the hold-up horses.
WATCH
Crafty Spirit and Opal Storm are both genuine hold-up types running just 8-14 days after their last start — monitor them in the paddock for signs of freshness or fatigue, as their form reads well but their natural style is disadvantaged by the likely pace scenario.
WATCH
Golden Havana has been placed in five of its last five runs but wears a visor and has a STYLE_FIT flag; if the pace is soft and closers are bottled up in a falsely-run race, its consistent placing record may flatter its actual winning chance here.
NOTE
Azuinthejungle's jockey Alex Jary claims 3lb, which is significant in a compressed handicap range of OR 53-67 — watch whether the claim proves a decisive weight advantage if the race sets up as a prominent duel with Empress Olivia.
NOTE
The going is universally Good to Firm across the card at Beverley today, confirmed by six races — the fast surface will sharpen early fractions and may test the stamina of any hold-up horse that cannot get a prominent enough position to challenge.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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