2:17 — Rob Over The Hill EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)
5f · Good · CLS4 · 10 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
2:52 — Matthew Ireland Memorial EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)
7½f · Good · CLS3 · 6 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
3:24 — George Kilburn Memorial Nursery
7½f · Good · DEFAULT · 5 runners
Tiger In The Tree likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Emerald Bay won at 2.10 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Tiger In The Tree
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 2
Emerald BayHappy Humpo
Hold Up · 2
AmanthaFarndale
Tiger In The Tree is the sole confirmed front-runner in a five-runner field and will attempt to dictate from the front over 7½f at Beverley on Good to Firm ground, setting a sustainable rather than pressured tempo with no rivals likely to seriously contest the early lead. The three genuine hold-up horses — Emerald Bay, Farndale, and Happy Humpo — will track from the rear, while Amantha, also a hold-up type, brings the only recent winning form in the field. Happy Humpo and Emerald Bay are redistributed to midfield on the map because there are more true hold-up types than the rear of the pace picture can accommodate, meaning one or more will race closer to the pace than their natural style dictates. With Tiger In The Tree controlling an uncontested, measured gallop, this race shape strongly favours a progressive hold-up horse with a decisive turn of foot in the final two furlongs — a soft, controlled early pace punishes flat-out closers but rewards those who can quicken through the field once the tempo lifts.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Lead, Closers Strike
68% probability
If Tiger In The Tree sets a comfortable, uncontested pace that sets up a strong finishing burst from the hold-up horses.
Tiger In The Tree dictates throughout on a soft lead, but the measured gallop leaves plenty in the tank for hold-up types turning for home, and the progressive closer with the best turn of foot wins late. This is the dominant shape given the lone front-runner and a field of genuine hold-up horses seeking ground in the final two furlongs.
AmanthaFarndaleEmerald BayHappy Humpo
B
Front-Runner Holds On
16% probability
If Tiger In The Tree bowls along at a genuinely slow pace and the hold-up horses leave themselves too much to do.
With only five runners and no pace rival, Tiger In The Tree could coast through the race in a near-canter, leaving chasers with too much ground to make up in time. Tiger In The Tree's fade tendency is a risk, but a truly dawdling gallop on good-to-firm ground could see the front-runner last home in a slowly-run sprint finish.
Tiger In The TreeAmanthaFarndaleEmerald Bay
C
Midfield Types Improve
10% probability
If Emerald Bay or Happy Humpo, forced to race closer than natural, adapt well and turn their redistribution into a tactical advantage.
Racing closer to the pace than usual could allow either redistributed type to avoid a traffic problem and quicken earlier than rivals who track further back, landing a blow before the true closers get organised. This shape is discounted because both Emerald Bay and Happy Humpo carry style-fit concerns, fading tendencies, and modest form figures.
Emerald BayHappy HumpoAmanthaFarndale
D
Blanket Finish, Chaos
6% probability
If the pace collapses mid-race and several horses hit the front simultaneously in the final furlong.
A messy race shape with no runner properly placed could compress the field into a tight finish where highest-rated or best-weighted horse prevails on raw ability. This remains the least likely scenario given Tiger In The Tree's confirmed front-running role, but the low OR band and juvenile inexperience across the field keeps it non-zero.
AmanthaFarndaleTiger In The TreeEmerald Bay
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Tiger In The Tree has faded in all three career starts — watch whether the unchallenged lead translates to a genuine test of stamina in the final furlong or collapses late, as this will determine whether hold-up horses get to the winner.
WATCH
Emerald Bay and Happy Humpo are both mapped to midfield despite being natural hold-up types — watch their positioning in the early stages to see if either actually races closer than expected, which would change the shape of the finish materially.
WATCH
Amantha's penalty (135lbs) is the highest weight in the field and she is racing 12 days after her win — watch whether she travels with the same fluency she showed last time or looks in need of the run under the extra burden.
NOTE
With only five runners on a Good to Firm surface at Beverley, the pace is unlikely to be truly strong — if the early splits are very slow, the entire hold-up strategy of the field is undermined and Tiger In The Tree's ability to control tempo becomes decisive.
4:02 — Charlie Wood Stakes (Listed)
1m4f · Good · LST · 6 runners
Al Aasy likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
By The Book led; the map had Al Aasy in front.
Al Aasy won at 1.44 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Al Aasy
Prominent · 1
Phantom Flight
Midfield · 3
By The BookInvolvementPercy's Daydream
Hold Up · 1
Miss Wong
Al Aasy is the lone confirmed front-runner here and, with no genuine rival to press him, Cieren Fallon can dictate terms at a controlled, sustainable gallop over this 1m4f trip on Good to Firm ground at Beverley. The field is unusually congested with prominent-style runners — By The Book, Involvement, and Percy's Daydream are all natural forwardly-placed types, but with Al Aasy already filling the lead role, these three are likely to be shuffled back into a midfield pack they would not naturally occupy. That compression in the early stages will create a steady-tempo race with a long, drawn-out finish rather than a lung-bursting sprint, as the backmarkers have limited genuine hold-up horsepower to generate a late surge. This shape strongly favours the horse who can travel prominently just behind Al Aasy and quicken off a soft pace — a true front-running or close-tracking profile that handles Good to Firm ground will be at a premium, while horses pushed out of their natural role in the reshuffle face an uphill task to impose themselves.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Lead, Soft Finish
67% probability
If Al Aasy dictates an uncontested, moderate gallop and the prominent pack settles tamely behind him, favouring whoever can track and quicken.
Al Aasy controls every yard from flag to finish on a comfortable lead, and the horse best placed to track him — ideally one with class and a quick turn of foot on Good to Firm — pounces in the straight; the slow tempo means no advantage to deep hold-up runners.
Al AasyBy The BookInvolvementPercy's Daydream
B
Prominent Pack Shuffles Late
16% probability
If the compressed midfield of By The Book, Involvement, and Percy's Daydream produces a three-way move turning in that swamps a tiring Al Aasy.
The redistribution of prominent types into mid-pack creates a mass challenge in the straight as multiple horses hit the front simultaneously; whoever finds a clear run earliest from that group wins the tactical scrum.
By The BookInvolvementPercy's DaydreamAl Aasy
C
Hold-Up Horse Swoops
10% probability
If the pace is truly falsely slow and collapses late, giving a genuinely held-up runner a rare winning opportunity at Beverley.
Miss Wong, the only true hold-up runner, would need the pace to be slow enough to compress the finish into a short sprint on Good to Firm ground; her best form (2nd, 1st) has come on similar ground but she is giving weight away and her course record is poor.
Miss WongAl AasyBy The Book
D
Race Develops Chaotically
7% probability
If the prominent-heavy field produces early jostling for position that forces a faster-than-expected early pace and tightens the finish to one furlong.
A contested early tempo would expose Al Aasy to pressure he rarely faces and could bring the closers into the race earlier than expected; however, without true hold-up horses to capitalise, the race would likely still fall to a prominent type who had settled best early.
InvolvementPercy's DaydreamBy The BookMiss Wong
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Al Aasy stealing an uncontested lead: if Cieren Fallon is allowed to bowl along in front unchallenged at a dawdle, the rest of the field may find it impossible to reel him in on Good to Firm ground before the straight ends.
WATCH
Percy's Daydream and By The Book crowding the early mid-pack: with three prominent types all seeking the same position behind Al Aasy, watch for bumping or awkward passage in the first half-mile that could compromise any of their runs.
WATCH
Miss Wong's wide draw and hold-up style: Connor Beasley will need a truly compressed, sprint finish to make her hold-up profile relevant — if the gallop is even moderate, she faces too much ground to make up on Good to Firm.
NOTE
Phantom Flight confirmed non-runner: the field has effectively dropped to five, removing one of the higher-weighted runners (133lbs) and tightening the shape analysis to a more straightforward solo-leader dynamic.
NOTE
Trainer freshness flags — By The Book (98 days) and Al Aasy (77 days) both return after significant breaks; Haggas and Appleby both have strong records returning horses fresh, but condition off a long break is worth monitoring on fast ground.
4:35 — Weatherbys Global Stallions App Coconut Cup Fillies' Handicap
1m½f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners
Porth Eilian likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Lexington Express led; the map had Porth Eilian in front.
Porth Eilian won at 4.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Porth Eilian
Prominent · 3
Lexington ExpressSandy CraicSogniamo
Midfield · 3
EnamorusVitalityMa Leila
Hold Up · 3
CancelledAlessia FernandaCome On Eibhlin
Porth Eilian is the confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine challenger for the lead, she can dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop over this 1m½f at Beverley on Good to Firm ground. Lexington Express and Sandy Craic will press from prominent positions, but neither is a natural pace-forcing type, meaning the tempo is unlikely to become truly searching. This setup — a single, uncontested pace-setter over a flat mile-and-a-half on fast ground — classically suits prominent racers who can track close to the pace and pounce in the straight, rather than deep closers who need a truly honest gallop to generate momentum. The field holds more front-running or prominent types than can all realistically slot into their favoured position: Vitality and Ma Leila are natural prominent racers who will find space ahead of them occupied, with Porth Eilian, Lexington Express, and Sandy Craic best-placed to secure the prime early berths.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Porth Eilian Front-Runs Clear
63% probability
If Porth Eilian bowls along uncontested and the pace is conservative enough to preserve her stamina reserves to the line.
Porth Eilian sets a measured fractions, controls the tempo throughout, and has enough left to kick again when challenged in the Beverley straight on Good to Firm ground that she handles; front-runners who can dictate here are notoriously hard to peg back when the pace is honest but not punishing.
Porth EilianSandy CraicLexington ExpressSogniamo
B
Prominent Tracker Pounces
22% probability
If Porth Eilian's lead is swallowed up in the home straight by a horse that has tracked her from just off the pace.
A horse like Lexington Express or Sandy Craic, sitting a length or two off the front throughout, benefits from the controlled fractions and produces a sustained challenge once balanced into the straight; this scenario rewards horses with course-proven stamina at this trip on quick ground.
Lexington ExpressSandy CraicSogniamoVitality
C
Midfield Closer Lands Late
10% probability
If the pace is deceptively strong and the front runners empty, allowing a midfield horse to finish through beaten rivals.
Come On Eibhlin or Cancelled, tracking from midfield, get a smooth run up the straight and arrive in time as the prominently-placed horses tie up; this scenario requires a stronger gallop than Porth Eilian's likely metronomic pace suggests, making it the least natural outcome of the field shape.
Come On EibhlinCancelledAlessia FernandaEnamorus
D
Pace Collapse — Closers Benefit
5% probability
If multiple prominent horses push forward early, creating an unexpectedly contested pace that sees the front rank fold in the final furlong.
Redistributed runners Vitality or Ma Leila, unable to find their natural position, may inadvertently push the pace by crowding the early stages and leave the door ajar for genuine hold-up types; however, this scenario is markedly discounted because neither Vitality nor Ma Leila are true hold-up horses, and the hold-up contingent in this field lacks the depth to capitalise reliably.
VitalityMa LeilaCancelledAlessia Fernanda
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Porth Eilian's lead is entirely unchallenged — if Connor Beasley is allowed to dictate a soft early fractions, the winning margin could be deceptive and front-runners who get away cheaply at Beverley are notoriously hard to reel in.
WATCH
Vitality and Ma Leila are both natural front-runners who will find themselves blocked from their preferred positions; watch for early crowding or jostling as their jockeys attempt to push forward against the natural order of this pace map.
WATCH
Lexington Express is in career-best form with three wins in her last four, and PJ McDonald is likely to track Porth Eilian closely — if she gets a clean slot in second position, she becomes the primary danger to the front-runner in the straight.
NOTE
Cancelled has been off for 48 days and is the heaviest-weighted runner in the field at 142lbs; if she reappears short of peak fitness the hold-up strategy becomes even harder to execute in a moderate pace scenario.
NOTE
Sogniamo's jumping-up win over 9f at Goodwood on Good ground gives her a recent strong form line, but her stable companion Sandy Craic means David O'Meara will have two horses pressing from prominent positions — watch how they are deployed relative to each other early.
5:10 — Weatherbys Racing Bank Handicap
7½f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners
It Just Takes Time likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
It Just Takes Time led, as the map showed.
Highland Olly won at 8.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
It Just Takes Time
Prominent · 2
Highland OllyTattie Bogle
Midfield · 3
CoolreeDegaleBajan Bandit
Hold Up · 2
GlenfinnanCapital Guarantee
It Just Takes Time is the confirmed front runner here and, with no genuine challenger for the lead, Jack Garritty should be able to dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop from the front over this 7½f Beverley straight course on Good to Firm ground. Tattie Bogle and Highland Olly will look to press close to the pace in prominent positions, creating a competitive but not punishing early tempo that should reward those who travel smoothly through the race. Coolree is a natural prominent type but, with Tattie Bogle and Highland Olly also wanting to be forward, Coolree is likely to be shuffled into midfield against his wishes, reducing his effectiveness. This controlled, single-paced shape over a flat track on fast ground favours hold-up horses with a strong finishing kick — provided the pace is genuinely honest — but the predominance of prominent runners at the head of affairs means the race is likely to be won by a horse travelling comfortably just off the pace rather than from the deep rear.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Pace, Late Surge
58% probability
If It Just Takes Time sets a steady, uncontested tempo and the race only quickens in the final two furlongs.
A single, uncontested front runner on fast ground at Beverley over 7½f rarely produces a truly searching gallop, meaning the race compresses into a sprint finish; horses who travel economically just off the pace through the middle of the race will arrive with the most energy.
If the early pace is brisk enough that It Just Takes Time, Tattie Bogle and Highland Olly pull clear early and the hold-up horses are left with too much to do.
A competitive three-way battle for the front two or three positions could generate enough pace to string the field out, rewarding those who took prominent positions and controlled their energy from the front third of the race.
Tattie BogleHighland OllyIt Just Takes TimeCoolree
C
Hold-Up Horse Swoops Late
13% probability
If the pace is genuinely fast and the front runners tie each other up, leaving room for a strong finisher to pick them off.
Glenfinnan or Capital Guarantee, both natural hold-up performers with course-relevant form at this trip on good ground, would benefit if the race is truly run — though the controlled single-paced shape makes this outcome less likely given the true hold-up types have been pushed toward midfield.
GlenfinnanCapital GuaranteeDegaleBajan Bandit
D
Pace Collapse, All-the-Way
7% probability
If It Just Takes Time meets no pressure whatsoever and is allowed to coast in front at a crawl, turning it into a pure sprint.
A virtually uncontested lead at a walk would suit It Just Takes Time to steal the race on the bridle, though its recent form shows limited finishing speed and it carries the highest weight in the field; this scenario requires complete passivity from all other jockeys.
It Just Takes TimeTattie BogleHighland OllyCoolree
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Tattie Bogle has run just three days ago and Jason Hart will need to manage that freshness carefully — if he over-commits chasing It Just Takes Time early, a quick reappearance could find him out late.
WATCH
Coolree's inability to secure its natural prominent position in a field this competitive is a material concern — Oisin Orr will need to make an immediate decision at the start about whether to force the issue or settle for a less comfortable role.
WATCH
Highland Olly's recent winning form over 8-9f on good ground is strong, but dropping back to 7½f on a flat, straight track tests whether that form translates — watch whether Rawlinson opts to press hard or conserve.
NOTE
Bajan Bandit's going record on turf good/good-to-firm (1 run from 15 in similar conditions, no wins or places) is a significant red flag; if the ground remains Good to Firm, expect this runner to be well beaten.
NOTE
With the going described as Good to Firm throughout the card and multiple races already run on the same surface today, monitor any late going updates — faster ground will further compress the finish and increase the advantage of those racing prominently.
5:40 — Happy Birthday Roy Archer Handicap
7½f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners
Battenburg Belle likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Zoulette led; the map had Battenburg Belle in front.
Zoulette won at 5.50 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Battenburg Belle
Prominent · 1
Maid On The Shelf
Midfield · 3
Forever TwentyWalk On Walk OnHood Wink
Hold Up · 2
ZouletteTruly Special
Battenburg Belle is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with only Maid On The Shelf likely to push into a prominent position alongside her, she faces minimal early pressure and should control a sustainable gallop from the front over Beverley's 7½f on Good to Firm ground. That tempo — honest but uncontested — shapes this as a race where the lead is not surrendered cheaply, and the sectionals are unlikely to be severe enough to cause Battenburg Belle to tie up in the straight. The three redistibuted hold-up types (Forever Twenty, Walk On Walk On, Hood Wink) have been pushed forward on the map only because the field contains more natural hold-up horses than the shape can accommodate; in practice all three will race toward the rear, meaning closers must produce a significant finishing kick to reel in a front-runner who is never pressured. The dominant tactical verdict is that a front-running or prominently-raced profile is the one most favoured here — a controlled pace on fast ground with no genuine pace duel gives the leader every chance to last home.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Belle Controls, Holds On
67% probability
If Battenburg Belle dictates an uncontested lead and Maid On The Shelf settles just off her through a measured pace.
Battenburg Belle sets a comfortable rhythm on Good to Firm ground, conserving enough energy to repel any late challengers; her recent sequence of placed and winning efforts at 6f suggests she can sustain pace into 7½f under these conditions. Maid On The Shelf, tracking the leader, is best placed to pounce if Belle weakens but the Charlie Johnston handler is yet to hit form over this trip.
Battenburg BelleMaid On The ShelfZouletteHood Wink
B
Closer Delivers From Rear
16% probability
If the pace proves genuinely strong enough to set up a late finish and one of the genuine hold-up runners produces a sustained run.
Hood Wink has consistent 8f form on Good ground with placed efforts and headgear (b) sharpening focus, making her the most credible of the backmarkers if a closing run is rewarded; however, this scenario requires a faster early tempo than this race shape suggests, making it the second-most-likely but still considerably less probable. Truly Special, who has won over 6f on Soft and placed over 8f on Good, represents the each-way interest if the finish opens up.
Hood WinkTruly SpecialZouletteForever Twenty
C
Midfield Horse Pounces
10% probability
If the pace collapses late and a horse tracking midfield delivers a well-timed challenge through the pack.
Zoulette, operating off a 32-day break, ran second at 7f on Good ground and sits at a workable mark; if she travels well mid-division she could pick off tired rivals late. Walk On Walk On has shown form at this trip and going combination but the Noel Wilson yard is without a recent winner and the horse is out of its natural role here.
ZouletteWalk On Walk OnHood WinkMaid On The Shelf
D
Pace Collapse, Chaos Finish
7% probability
If Battenburg Belle overcooks the fractions on fast ground and fades inside the final furlong, opening the race to a scramble.
Forever Twenty showed a third at 7f on Good and is the most unexposed of the hold-up runners if the race falls apart; however, the yard (Ivan Furtado, 0/20 over 14 days) is not in form and the horse's recent 10th on the same trip and going is a concern. This scenario relies on conditions and tactics conspiring against the favourite and is assigned low probability accordingly.
Forever TwentyTruly SpecialHood WinkZoulette
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Battenburg Belle's ability to stay 7½f is the pivotal question — if she flags inside the final furlong having led throughout, Maid On The Shelf is ideally positioned to capitalise.
WATCH
Hood Wink is the most in-form closer in the field but needs a genuinely strong gallop to close from the rear; watch to see whether the pace Battenburg Belle sets is brisk enough to justify a hold-up ride.
WATCH
The surplus of genuine hold-up types (Forever Twenty, Walk On Walk On, Hood Wink, Truly Special) means the rear of the field will be congested; watch for traffic problems in the straight if the leader is tiring and all four make their challenges simultaneously.
NOTE
Going is Good to Firm across all races at Beverley today — any rain or significant change should be monitored as it would alter sectionals and benefit the hold-up runners more than the front-runner.
NOTE
Tim Easterby's yard strike rate (15/81 over 14 days) stands well above every other trainer represented here — Hood Wink's chance should not be underestimated purely because the pace shape is unfavourable.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.