Archive›Carlisle · 15 June 2026

Carlisle

15 June 2026 · 7 races

✓ Historic — full access

Read from the in-running comments·How often this is right →

1:40 — Racing TV Restricted Maiden Stakes (Band D) (GBB/IRE Incentive Race)

6f · Soft · CLS4 · 10 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

2:10 — Watch Racing TV Live Handicap (Div I)

6f · Soft · HCAP · 9 runners

Ramon Di Loria likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Jack Rabbit Slims led; the map had Ramon Di Loria in front.

Invincible Ruby won at 7.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Ramon Di Loria

Prominent · 1

Rain Cap

Midfield · 4

Rambuso CreekFlybarWait For ItBaby Rover

Hold Up · 3

Invincible RubySunlit SeaJack Rabbit Slims

Ramon Di Loria is the only confirmed front runner in this field and will dictate terms from the start, likely setting a sustainable pace without pressure from other early types. Rain Cap may provide some early company as a prominent runner, but the lack of genuine pace pressure means Ramon Di Loria can control the tempo and kick clear when asked. With seven hold-up horses relying on a strong pace to set up their finishing kicks, the likely modest gallop will severely compromise their chances. This race shape strongly favours front runners and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems behind.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Runner Dominance

45% probability

If Ramon Di Loria gets an easy lead and kicks clear turning for home

The lack of early pace allows him to dictate ideal fractions and have plenty left for a decisive move. The hold-up brigade get caught in traffic as the pace quickens late, unable to make up the ground.

Ramon Di LoriaRain CapRambuso CreekInvincible Ruby

Prominent Pair Clear Away

30% probability

If Ramon Di Loria and Rain Cap work together early then battle clear

These two get first run on the field while the seven hold-up horses are still organising behind them. The tactical advantage of racing handy proves decisive in a slowly-run affair.

Rain CapRamon Di LoriaSunlit SeaRambuso Creek

Traffic Chaos Favours Lucky

15% probability

If the large pack of hold-up horses creates a cavalry charge finish

The bunched field creates interference and only the horses getting clear runs can capitalise. Rambuso Creek and Invincible Ruby have the class edge if finding daylight.

Rambuso CreekInvincible RubyJack Rabbit SlimsSunlit Sea

Surprise Speed From Behind

10% probability

If one of the hold-up horses gets an unusually strong pace to aim at

Despite the tactical disadvantage, superior finishing speed from Sunlit Sea or Rambuso Creek could still prevail. This requires Ramon Di Loria to go too fast early or the field to spread out unusually.

Sunlit SeaRambuso CreekRamon Di LoriaRain Cap

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Ramon Di Loria could get an uncontested lead and prove very hard to peg back given the tactical setup

WATCH

Traffic problems inevitable with seven hold-up horses converging in the straight

NOTE

Rain Cap's return from 70-day absence after showing good form before the break

WATCH

Rambuso Creek needs the pace to develop strongly to offset his hold-up style disadvantage

NOTE

Jack Nicholls riding with only 5% strike rate adds concern for Invincible Ruby backers

2:45 — Watch Racing TV Live Handicap (Div II)

6f · Soft · HCAP · 9 runners

No obvious leaderHISTORIC

How it ran

Howzak led.

Little Beck Annie won at 5.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it.

1 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 0

None

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 6

Wee DresserApril DiamondStormy PearlLittle Beck AnnieBelling The CatInvincible Annice

Hold Up · 3

Great SuccessHowzakMaynora

With no confirmed front runner among nine hold-up horses, this race will see a cautious early gallop as runners settle behind each other waiting for someone to take responsibility. The likely scenario is a slow crawl through the early stages before building into a sprint finish over the final 2-3 furlongs. Howzak and Great Success may find forward positions by default, but neither is a natural pace-setter, creating a muddling tempo that will suit horses with a sharp turn of foot. This tactical setup strongly favours hold-up horses who can produce their best work late, particularly those with proven sprint finishes at this distance.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Slow Burn Sprint Finish

60% probability

If the pace is crawling early and builds into a cavalry charge

The lack of natural pace-setters creates a stop-start gallop that becomes a 2-furlong dash. Sharp finishers like Maynora and Howzak can exploit their sprint speed from off the pace.

MaynoraHowzakGreat SuccessApril Diamond

Steadier Even Gallop

25% probability

If one or two horses commit to making the running

A more honest tempo suits horses who can travel well and sustain their effort. This brings Great Success and April Diamond into calculations with their proven staying power at the trip.

Great SuccessApril DiamondWee DresserStormy Pearl

False Pace Collapse

10% probability

If early leaders set unsustainable fractions then fade

Horses tracking the pace suffer when leaders capitulate, allowing backmarkers to sweep through. Stormy Pearl and Belling The Cat benefit from being held up furthest off the early speed.

Stormy PearlBelling The CatLittle Beck AnnieWee Dresser

Tactical Stalemate

5% probability

If jockeys are too patient and leave it impossibly late

Over-cautious riding leaves all runners with too much to do in the final furlong. The most experienced campaigner Howzak uses his racecraft to edge a messy finish.

HowzakGreat SuccessMaynoraApril Diamond

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Maynora carries a 3-claim jockey who may get swallowed up in a tactical finish if the pace collapses.

WATCH

Great Success has shown recent tendency to fade in finish which could be exposed if this becomes a sprint.

WATCH

Howzak is returning from 101-day absence and may need the run despite his fresh form record.

NOTE

Track any early pace development as runners sort themselves out in the opening two furlongs.

NOTE

Monitor Stormy Pearl for market confidence given David Thompson's modest recent strike rate.

3:20 — racingtv.com Handicap

1m6f · Soft · HCAP · 14 runners

So Alex likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Trojan Sun and Circuit Breaker led; the map had So Alex in front.

Trojan Sun won at 12.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently.

4 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

So Alex

Prominent · 3

Dance TimeTrojan SunMarbuzet

Midfield · 6

Circuit BreakerClansmanScotland The BravePyramid PlaceArctic FoxStand Strong

Hold Up · 4

Ouro PretoGentle WarriorTorcelloBanderas

So Alex will take them along from the front with minimal early pressure, as Dance Time, Marbuzet and Trojan Sun are the only other prominent runners but lack the pace to challenge early. The large field of hold-up horses including Gentle Warrior, Ouro Preto, Banderas and Torcello will settle behind, creating a steady gallop through the first mile. This sets up a classic staying test where the pace will quicken from 3f out as the hold-up brigade fan wide looking for racing room. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can produce a sustained finish, as the uncontested early pace will leave plenty in reserve for the closing stages.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

60% probability

If So Alex sets uncontested fractions and the pace stays steady through the first mile

The large contingent of closers get perfect conditions to unleash finishing kicks, with the early leader vulnerable to multiple challengers in the final 2f. The soft ground will aid stamina-laden finishers who can grind past tiring pace-setters.

Gentle WarriorOuro PretoBanderasTorcello

Front Runners Hold On

20% probability

If So Alex gets an easy lead and Dance Time or Marbuzet apply just enough pressure to keep honest fractions

The modest early pace leaves the leaders with enough left to resist late challenges, particularly if the hold-up horses get caught in traffic or are too far back. Prominent racers benefit from the tactical advantage of racing handy.

So AlexDance TimeMarbuzetTrojan Sun

Mid-Race Injection Changes Dynamic

12% probability

If Dance Time or Trojan Sun decide to take the race to So Alex earlier than expected around the back straight

A faster middle section stretches the field and exposes any fitness doubts, potentially setting up the race for horses who can sit closer and have a shorter sprint finish. This favours the better-rated closers with tactical speed.

Circuit BreakerClansmanGentle WarriorBanderas

Pace Collapses Completely

8% probability

If So Alex goes too slowly and multiple horses start making moves turning for home

A messy, stop-start affair develops where positioning becomes crucial and the first horse to get a clear run wins. This chaotic finish could suit any horse with a clean passage regardless of running style.

TorcelloScotland The BraveArctic FoxStand Strong

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

So Alex could get an uncontested lead that proves impossible to peg back if the hold-up horses are too far behind

WATCH

Banderas returning from a 345-day break faces a fitness test despite his obvious class advantage when fresh

NOTE

Gentle Warrior and Ouro Preto both need clear runs in the straight as hold-up horses in a big field

WATCH

The soft ground may not suit all runners despite the going report showing consistent conditions

NOTE

Torcello at 12 years old represents great value if the pace sets up right for his proven staying ability

3:50 — Follow Racing TV On X Handicap

1m · Soft · HCAP · 12 runners

Hostility likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Runninsonofagun led; the map had Hostility in front.

Hostility won at 7.00 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Hostility

Prominent · 2

BellasioJewel Maker

Midfield · 5

RunninsonofagunBetty BassettBeaming LightAge Of TimeJkr Cobbler

Hold Up · 4

Union IslandSoames ForsyteGainsbourgBetween Me And U

Hostility and Bellasio are the only confirmed early pace horses in a field dominated by hold-up runners, creating a pedestrian gallop from the outset. With just two prominent runners against ten hold-up types, the pace will be moderate to slow, allowing the leaders to conserve energy for the business end. This race shape heavily favours prominent runners who can dictate terms without pressure, as the hold-up brigade will face a wall of horses and limited room for manoeuvre in the straight. The early pace advantage is decisive here - prominent runners should dominate.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent runners dominate

65% probability

If Hostility and Bellasio are allowed to bowl along unchallenged in front

The lack of early pace pressure allows them to quicken when it matters while the hold-up horses get caught in traffic. The two pace-setters have first run on the field when the sprint develops.

HostilityBellasioJewel MakerUnion Island

Hold-up horse finds clear run

20% probability

If one of the better hold-up horses gets a dream passage through

Union Island or Soames Forsyte could capitalise on their class edge if avoiding the inevitable traffic problems. The moderate pace helps their finishing kick but they need serious luck in running.

Union IslandSoames ForsyteRunninsonofagunBetween Me And U

Surprise from back markers

10% probability

If the pace collapses completely and becomes a sprint from the 2f pole

Age Of Time and Jkr Cobbler could exploit their light weights in a cavalry charge finish. Their class disadvantage is negated by the scramble but they need everything to fall right.

Age Of TimeJkr CobblerBetty BassettBeaming Light

Tactical mess benefits outsider

5% probability

If the front two go too slow then suddenly sprint clear unexpectedly

The hold-up horses are caught flat-footed by the sudden injection of pace from the leaders. An each-way outsider like Gainsbourg could sneak through while others are still organising their challenges.

GainsbourgBetty BassettBetween Me And UBeaming Light

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for Hostility and Bellasio getting soft sectionals early - if they're crawling through halfway they'll be very hard to peg back

WATCH

Monitor the pace after 4f - if it's genuinely steady the hold-up horses will struggle to make up the ground in the straight

NOTE

Keep an eye on Union Island's position turning in - needs to be handy to use his class advantage effectively

WATCH

Watch for traffic problems in the straight with so many hold-up runners converging - first clear will have huge advantage

NOTE

Observe Soames Forsyte early - if the tongue-tie works he could be the pick of the hold-up horses but needs to travel smoothly

4:23 — Racing TV Fillies' Handicap

7f · Soft · HCAP · 10 runners

Sandy Craic likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Amelia's Joy led; the map had Sandy Craic in front.

Sandy Craic won at 5.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Sandy Craic

Prominent · 2

Velvet RhythmBlufferonthebus

Midfield · 4

Anorah UnleashedDouwantitrightnowAlbeseeingyerAmelia's Joy

Hold Up · 3

Sailor's ReturnPickersgillSahara Magic

Sandy Craic and Velvet Rhythm will set the early tempo from the front, with Blufferonthebus likely tracking just behind in the prominent positions. The pace should be sustainable rather than fierce given the small field size and lack of multiple confirmed front-runners. From the 3f pole, the hold-up horses like Pickersgill, Amelia's Joy and Sailor's Return will be unleashed from off the pace. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can finish fast, as the early pace will be moderate and create opportunities for closers to pick off the leaders.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If the early pace is moderate as expected with Sandy Craic and Velvet Rhythm setting sustainable fractions

The closers will have too much firepower late and sweep past the early leaders in the final furlong. Pickersgill's recent 7f win and Amelia's Joy's hold-up style perfectly suit this development.

PickersgillAmelia's JoySailor's ReturnDouwantitrightnow

Front-Runners Steal It

25% probability

If Sandy Craic or Velvet Rhythm gets away with soft fractions and kicks clear turning for home

One of the pace-setters will have enough left to hold off the late challenge from the closers. Velvet Rhythm's recent 7f wins show she can sustain her speed over this trip.

Velvet RhythmSandy CraicBlufferonthebusPickersgill

Prominent Tracker Strikes

12% probability

If Blufferonthebus gets the perfect trip tracking the leaders and avoids the early pace battle

She can slip through on the rail or find clear running to outfinish both the pace-setters and late closers. Her recent second over 8f on soft ground is encouraging.

BlufferonthebusVelvet RhythmSandy CraicAlbeseeingyer

Outsider Surprise Package

8% probability

If the pace collapses completely and becomes a sprint finish where early position matters

Anorah Unleashed's light weight and unknown quantity factor could see her spring a shock if getting a dream run. The 7lb claimer takes a valuable chunk off her back.

Anorah UnleashedSahara MagicPickersgillVelvet Rhythm

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Sandy Craic could steal this if getting uncontested lead fractions and David O'Meara's 8/52 record improves

WATCH

Watch for Pickersgill getting strong finishing kick under inexperienced 5lb claimer Lauren Young

NOTE

Velvet Rhythm's early position crucial as she needs to either lead or sit second to be effective

WATCH

Sailor's Return fitness after 91-day layoff is major unknown despite Tudhope booking

NOTE

Track bias development throughout card will determine if early pace or hold-up style gets favoured

4:58 — Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap

7f · Soft · HCAP · 8 runners

The Gay Blade likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Saisons d'Or led; the map had The Gay Blade in front.

The Gay Blade won at 6.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

The Gay Blade

Prominent · 1

Good Karma

Midfield · 4

Saisons d'OrLightning GalaxyEl PintoKing Sharja

Hold Up · 2

Lesley's BoyJamaican Storm

The Gay Blade and Good Karma will take the field along at a steady but not punishing gallop through the soft ground over this 7f trip. With six hold-up horses in the field, there's minimal early pressure on the pace-setters, allowing them to dictate comfortable fractions. The large contingent of hold-up performers will be bunched towards the rear, creating potential traffic problems and leaving them reliant on splits opening in the straight. This race shape strongly favours the prominent racers and those with tactical pace who can avoid the inevitable scramble from the back.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

55% probability

If The Gay Blade and Good Karma maintain their positions without serious pressure

The pace-setters control the tempo and have first run on the field, while the hold-up brigade gets caught in traffic behind them. The tactical advantage of racing handy proves decisive on soft ground where late momentum is harder to generate.

The Gay BladeGood KarmaSaisons d'OrJamaican Storm

Hold-Up Horses Find Gaps

25% probability

If the pace becomes genuinely strong or traffic problems don't materialize for the back markers

Saisons d'Or and Jamaican Storm get clear runs through and benefit from the strong gallop, with their proven ability at this trip coming to the fore. The soft conditions suit their grinding style once they find daylight.

Saisons d'OrJamaican StormLesley's BoyLightning Galaxy

Pace Collapses Early

12% probability

If The Gay Blade and Good Karma go too fast early on the testing ground

The leaders weaken dramatically in the final furlong, allowing the hold-up horses with the best finishing kicks to sweep past. King Sharja and El Pinto emerge from the pack with strong late runs.

King SharjaEl PintoLightning GalaxyLesley's Boy

Tactical Speed Wins

8% probability

If one horse can secure an ideal stalking position just behind the leaders

A horse tracking the pace gets the perfect trip and kicks clear when the leaders tire but before the hold-up horses can organize their challenges. This requires perfect positioning and timing from jockey and horse.

Good KarmaJamaican StormThe Gay BladeSaisons d'Or

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

The Gay Blade could get an uncontested lead if Good Karma doesn't go forward early enough

WATCH

Traffic problems will be severe in the straight with six hold-up horses converging from the rear

NOTE

Good Karma's ability to track the leader without making the running could provide the perfect tactical position

WATCH

Lightning Galaxy's 28-day break and headgear change suggests he may not be ready for this assignment

NOTE

Lesley's Boy's visor application indicates trainer expects sharper performance than recent Curragh run

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 15 June 2026.

Tonight’s free races, in your inbox

Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.

One email a day. Unsubscribe whenever. Every race, every meeting →