Archive›Carlisle · 18 May 2026

Carlisle

18 May 2026 · 7 races

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Read from the in-running comments·How often this is right →

2:00 — British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

5f · Good · NOV · 4 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

2:30 — Racing TV Handicap

5f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

Hurt You Never to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Blue Lakota led; the map had Hurt You Never in front.

Harb won at 12.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.

2 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Hurt You Never

Prominent · 3

KeldeoBlue LakotaHarry Mole

Midfield · 4

FierceImperial GuardDc CogentHarb

Hold Up · 3

AcrisiusWen MoonSpeeding Bullet

Hurt You Never will take this field along as the only confirmed front runner, with Keldeo, Blue Lakota and Harry Mole likely to track him in the early positions. The pace should be sustainable rather than frantic given limited early speed, allowing the large contingent of hold-up horses to get organized behind. This moderate tempo will suit patient riders who can time their runs, as the race will develop into a sprint finish from the 2f pole. The race shape clearly favours hold-up horses who can quicken off a solid pace, with prominent racers also well-placed to strike.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If the pace stays moderate and the field bunches up approaching the final furlong

The lack of early speed allows patient horses to get perfect positions and unleash late kicks. Hold-up specialists with proven finishing speed will have ideal conditions to strike from off the pace.

FierceWen MoonAcrisiusSpeeding Bullet

Prominent Trackers Strike

25% probability

If Keldeo and Blue Lakota can secure perfect stalking positions behind Hurt You Never

These prominent racers avoid the scramble behind and have first run on the leader when the pace lifts. Their tactical positioning gives them the jump on the hold-up brigade.

KeldeoBlue LakotaDc CogentImperial Guard

Front Runner Survives

12% probability

If Hurt You Never gets soft fractions and kicks clear turning for home

The moderate early pace leaves enough in the tank for a sustained drive to the line. Late closers struggle to peg back the advantage from such a position of strength.

Hurt You NeverKeldeoBlue LakotaFierce

Pace Collapses Early

8% probability

If the lack of early speed creates a crawling pace through the first half

The race becomes a pure sprint where early position trumps finishing kick. Horses close to the pace have decisive advantages over those trapped at the back.

Blue LakotaHarry MoleKeldeoHurt You Never

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Hurt You Never could get too easy a lead if no one goes with him early, making him very difficult to peg back

WATCH

Imperial Guard's 210-day absence is a major concern for any horse trying to win first time back from such a layoff

NOTE

The Midgley pair Fierce and Speeding Bullet both arrive in good form and could provide the stable with a strong hand

WATCH

Track the early positioning of Blue Lakota and Keldeo as their prominent styles could prove crucial in a slowly-run race

NOTE

Wen Moon's recent winning form makes him dangerous if he can secure a clear run from his hold-up position

3:00 — Watch Racing TV Live Handicap

6f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Call Me Betty led, as the map showed.

Call Me Betty won at 11.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Call Me BettyMagic BoyIris Dancer

Prominent · 4

Mr DreamsellerCounting CardsInvincible RubyLightning Galaxy

Midfield · 2

ImpressorFan Mail

Hold Up · 4

Ran AmokSurprisedRaft UpMount Ruapehu

Call Me Betty, Magic Boy, and Iris Dancer will ensure a strong gallop from the start with all three confirmed front runners likely to dispute the early lead. This will create a demanding pace over 6f that will test stamina reserves, particularly with Magic Boy showing excellent recent form on good going and Call Me Betty needing to bounce back from a poor last run. The sustained gallop will set up the race perfectly for hold-up horses who can time their challenges late. This race shape strongly favours hold-up performers and prominent racers with tactical speed who can avoid the early pace battle.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Heroes Prevail

55% probability

If the three front runners go too fast early and compromise each other

The strong pace will find out the leaders in the final furlong, allowing patient hold-up horses to sweep past tired front runners. Ran Amok and Surprised have the perfect profiles to capitalise on this scenario.

Ran AmokSurprisedRaft UpFan Mail

Tactical Speed Wins

25% probability

If one of the prominent racers can settle just off the pace and avoid the early battle

A horse like Counting Cards or Mr Dreamseller can track the leaders without getting involved in the pace duel then strike decisively. Their tactical positioning gives them the perfect launching pad for a winning move.

Counting CardsMr DreamsellerLightning GalaxyInvincible Ruby

Front Runner Survives

12% probability

If Magic Boy can establish a clear lead and dictate more sensible fractions

Magic Boy's excellent recent record on good going could see him control the pace better than his rivals and hold on grimly. His proven ability at this distance on similar going makes him the most likely leader to last home.

Magic BoyCall Me BettyIris DancerLightning Galaxy

Closers Arrive Too Late

8% probability

If the pace is more moderate than expected with the leaders going steady early

Without enough pace to aim at, the hold-up horses may find their finishing kicks blunted by a tactical affair. The prominent racers who stayed closer to the action will have the advantage in a sprint finish.

Lightning GalaxyInvincible RubyCounting CardsMr Dreamseller

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if Magic Boy and Call Me Betty clash heads early as both are natural front runners for the same trainer

WATCH

Monitor how Ran Amok handles the return from 206 days absence despite his fresh record

NOTE

Check if the three confirmed front runners actually commit to the early lead or one drops back tactically

WATCH

Observe whether Raft Up can repeat his recent course wins when facing this stronger field

NOTE

Watch for Surprised to be delivered late wide of horses given his hold-up style under Mulrennan

3:30 — Follow Racing TV On X Handicap

1m6f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Lord to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Cascade Hall led; the map had Lord in front.

Loki won at 6.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Lord

Prominent · 1

Haarar

Midfield · 4

LokiCharlie DarlingBilly No MatesCascade Hall

Hold Up · 3

Swinging LondonAshdown ForestAs Fast As Wind

Lord stands alone as the confirmed front runner and will dictate proceedings from the gates, likely getting an uncontested lead with Haarar the only prominent runner sitting behind him. The extensive hold-up brigade of As Fast As Wind, Billy No Mates, Ashdown Forest, Swinging London, Cascade Hall and Charlie Darling will create a bunched field tracking the pace. With minimal early pressure on Lord, he can control the tempo and potentially kick clear, making this a tactical affair that will favour the pace angle over the hold-up merchants who need a strong gallop to be effective.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Lord Controls Throughout

45% probability

If Lord gets his preferred steady tempo and isn't pressured early

Lord can dictate terms from the front and prove hard to peg back, while any prominent runner like Haarar can track him into contention. The hold-up horses will struggle without a strong pace to close into.

LordHaararAs Fast As WindLoki

Hold-Up Brigade Strikes

30% probability

If the early pace becomes genuinely strong with Haarar or others pressing Lord

This creates the conditions the closers need, allowing As Fast As Wind and Billy No Mates to unleash their finishing kicks. The front runners pay for their exertions in a cavalry charge finish.

As Fast As WindBilly No MatesAshdown ForestCharlie Darling

Loki Produces Big Effort

15% probability

If Loki shows his class despite the 199-day layoff and uncertain running style

His superior ability on ratings could shine through with PJ McDonald able to place him perfectly from an uncertain position. The pace scenario becomes secondary to pure class assertion.

LokiLordAs Fast As WindSwinging London

Surprise Package Emerges

10% probability

If one of the outsiders finds significant improvement from recent form

Horses like Cascade Hall or Charlie Darling could capitalise on a messy pace scenario where the fancied runners cancel each other out. The tactical nature creates upset potential.

Cascade HallCharlie DarlingSwinging LondonAshdown Forest

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Lord could steal this if allowed to dictate a steady tempo without serious early pressure from the field

WATCH

The large contingent of hold-up runners creates tactical complexity but they all need a strong pace that may not materialise

WATCH

Loki's 199-day absence and uncertain running style makes him hard to assess despite obvious class advantage on paper

NOTE

Haarar's 559-day layoff represents massive fitness concern despite his tactical advantage as the only prominent runner

NOTE

The good ground throughout the card suggests consistent conditions favouring those who have shown form on similar surfaces

4:00 — racingtv.com Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

7f · Good · NOV · 11 runners

Lunar Melody likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Freddie Steady Go and Golden Harvest led; the map had Lunar Melody in front.

Freddie Steady Go won at 151.00 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Lunar Melody

Prominent · 2

WezzeerDark Sovereign

Midfield · 5

Bee FarmerAlbemagicBlue Boy JuniorRoyal SizzlerTzarmaggedon

Hold Up · 3

Golden HarvestFreddie Steady GoGreat Profit

Lunar Melody is the confirmed early pace angle and will set a sustainable tempo without pressure from the break. Dark Sovereign and Wezzeer may track closely in prominent positions, but neither has shown genuine pace-forcing tendencies. The moderate gallop will suit horses that can travel kindly and produce a turn of foot, with the real action delayed until the final 2f as the field bunches up. This race shape clearly favours prominent runners and those with tactical pace who can position handy and kick - hold-up horses face a significant disadvantage with limited pace to aim at.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Pace Suits Leaders

65% probability

If Lunar Melody dictates uncontested fractions through halfway

The moderate tempo allows prominent runners to travel comfortably before the sprint finish, negating stamina doubts. Horses positioned within 3-4 lengths turning for home can unleash their finishing kick effectively.

Lunar MelodyWezzeerDark SovereignGolden Harvest

Late Dash from Hold-Up

20% probability

If the pace collapses completely in the middle stages creating a cavalry charge

Hold-up horses get the strong tempo they need in the final 3f to showcase their finishing speed. The bunched field provides cover and racing room for swooping challengers.

Freddie Steady GoGreat ProfitTzarmaggedonGolden Harvest

Surprise Pace Duel

10% probability

If multiple horses challenge Lunar Melody for the early lead unexpectedly

A genuine pace battle emerges as prominent runners get drawn into speed, setting up the race for closers. The honest gallop stretches the field and creates opportunities for patient tactics.

Golden HarvestGreat ProfitBlue Boy JuniorRoyal Sizzler

Weak Pace Favours Class

5% probability

If the entire field settles into a pedestrian crawl throughout

The lack of tempo becomes a pure test of class and acceleration from the 2f pole. Higher-rated newcomers with unknown ability can capitalise on superior breeding and fitness.

AlbemagicBee FarmerLunar MelodyWezzeer

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Lunar Melody's jumping and early positioning will determine the entire pace scenario for the field

WATCH

Golden Harvest and Tzarmaggedon both show fading tendencies which could be exposed in a slowly-run race

NOTE

The market moves on unraced duo Albemagic and Bee Farmer will reveal stable confidence levels

WATCH

Freddie Steady Go needs the pace to develop but may struggle if the gallop remains modest throughout

NOTE

Wezzeer's ability to handle the step up to 7f while carrying a penalty after recent 6f success

4:35 — Join Racing TV Now Handicap

1m · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Dandy Orton likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Mereside Princess led; the map had Dandy Orton in front.

Mereside Princess won at 4.50 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Dandy Orton

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 6

HatamotoSmoker BellamyMereside PrincessHelios PathThe Floors MunkyRoyal Baroness

Hold Up · 3

Too Darn SpicyThankfully SimmyCobalt Comet

Dandy Orton will look to take this field along from the front, but with his modest OR 46 rating and 121lbs, he's unlikely to set a scorching gallop over this mile trip. The entire field consists of hold-up horses, meaning Dandy Orton will get an uncontested lead and dictate comfortable fractions throughout. With no natural pace pressers to challenge early, this sets up as a steady-run affair that will turn into a sprint finish where the best staying power and turn of foot will prevail. This race shape strongly favours the classier hold-up horses who can quicken from off the pace, particularly those with proven form at the trip and rating advantages.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Classy Closers Dominate

55% probability

If Dandy Orton sets modest fractions uncontested to the home turn

The race becomes a staying test where superior class tells as the field bunches for a sprint finish. Higher-rated hold-up horses like Thankfully Simmy and Too Darn Spicy can use their rating advantages to outgun the moderate pace-setter.

Thankfully SimmyToo Darn SpicyCobalt CometSmoker Bellamy

Pace Collapse Benefits

25% probability

If Dandy Orton goes too slow early and the field gets bunched approaching the turn

The race becomes a pure sprint from the furlong pole where horses with recent form spikes can capitalise. Fresh legs and those who've shown speed recently get first run on the leader.

Mereside PrincessSmoker BellamyHatamotoThankfully Simmy

Front Runner Holds On

12% probability

If the good going plays faster than expected and Dandy Orton gets away with very soft fractions

His light weight and uncontested lead prove decisive as the closers leave their run too late on ground that doesn't suit late flourishes. The pace-setter has enough left to resist the late charge.

Dandy OrtonRoyal BaronessThe Floors MunkyHelios Path

Pace Quickens Unexpectedly

8% probability

If several hold-up horses move simultaneously turning for home creating a fast finish

The race becomes a stamina test where horses struggle to quicken off the strong pace. Those with proven staying power and fitness advantages come through late.

Cobalt CometHatamotoToo Darn SpicyThankfully Simmy

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Dandy Orton sets the pace uncontested - if fractions are too slow early the race becomes a lottery sprint finish

WATCH

Mereside Princess and Smoker Bellamy both wearing headgear changes and coming off improved recent efforts

NOTE

Thankfully Simmy and Too Darn Spicy represent the in-form Fahey yard with 6 wins from 45 runners in last 14 days

WATCH

Several runners including Hatamoto and Royal Baroness face stamina questions stepping up to this mile distance

NOTE

The good going conditions favour horses with proven form on similar surfaces, eliminating several with limited good going experience

5:10 — Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap

7f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

William Dewhirst likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Black Storm and Wish This led; the map had William Dewhirst in front.

They All Know Me won at 12.00 — was held up, as the map had it.

4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

William Dewhirst

Prominent · 3

Native InstinctThis FarhVince Le Prince

Midfield · 4

Bay BreezeJudicatureWish ThisDetective

Hold Up · 3

They All Know MeGreen PursuitBlack Storm

William Dewhirst will be the primary pace-setter with This Farh, Native Instinct, Vince Le Prince and Bay Breeze all tracking closely in the prominent positions. The early gallop will be solid but not excessive with only one natural front-runner, allowing the pace to build steadily through the middle sections. A large group of hold-up horses including Green Pursuit, Black Storm, Judicature, They All Know Me, Detective and Wish This will be held back for late challenges. This pace dynamic strongly favours the hold-up horses who can finish fastest off what should be a searching but not brutal early tempo.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Pace Collapse

45% probability

If William Dewhirst goes too fast early trying to dominate or the prominent group engages in a speed duel

The pace will be unsustainable allowing the patient hold-up horses to sweep past a weakened field in the final furlong. Green Pursuit and Black Storm are perfectly positioned to capitalize with their proven finishing kicks.

Green PursuitBlack StormDetectiveThey All Know Me

Tactical Slow Pace

30% probability

If the prominent horses settle too quietly behind William Dewhirst creating pedestrian fractions

The race becomes a sprint from the 2f marker where early positioning matters more than finishing kick. This Farh and Native Instinct can use their prominent positions to steal a march on the hold-up brigade.

This FarhNative InstinctVince Le PrinceBay Breeze

Even Gallop Throughout

15% probability

If William Dewhirst sets sensible fractions with the field staying together until the final 2f

The race becomes a test of pure ability rather than tactics with the best handicapped horses prevailing. Native Instinct's recent form improvement and Black Storm's consistency make them the logical beneficiaries.

Native InstinctBlack StormGreen PursuitThis Farh

Front Runner Dominates

10% probability

If William Dewhirst gets loose on the lead with soft fractions and the field fails to close

The pace-setter will have enough left to resist late challenges especially if Paul Mulrennan can dictate terms. William Dewhirst's stamina-laden pedigree suits this scenario perfectly.

William DewhirstVince Le PrinceThis FarhBay Breeze

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

William Dewhirst's early fractions will determine the entire race shape and outcome

WATCH

Green Pursuit's market move given the 30-day absence and strong finishing profile

NOTE

This Farh's ability to handle the step up in class from recent Wolverhampton success

WATCH

Native Instinct building on improved last-time-out second at Newcastle

NOTE

The impact of apprentice riders Jake Dickson and Lauren Young in a competitive handicap

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 18 May 2026.

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