Archive›Carlisle · 30 May 2026

Carlisle

30 May 2026 · 8 races

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1:30 — Betway Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m3f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners

Lead contested: Claymore v TopteamFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Claymore led, as the map showed.

Opportunity won at 2.10 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

ClaymoreTopteam

Prominent · 2

Real DreamGhaiyya

Midfield · 5

TiernanCastle StuartStar HarbourPer ContraHumble Spark

Hold Up · 4

EnemyRogue MillionsDancing In ParisOpportunity

Claymore and Topteam will ensure a genuine pace from the front, with Ghaiyya likely to press them from a prominent position early. The confirmed pace angle from two natural leaders should create an honest gallop over this stamina-testing 1m3f trip, with the tempo likely sustained rather than stop-start given both front-runners' styles. With multiple hold-up horses including Rogue Millions, Dancing In Paris, and Opportunity looking to finish strongly, the combination of genuine pace and the testing distance strongly favours closers who can deliver their challenge late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Pace Suits Closers

55% probability

If Claymore and Topteam go too hard early and Ghaiyya presses them

The genuine pace will stretch the field and create the perfect setup for hold-up horses to deliver telling late runs. Patient tactics will be rewarded as the pace-setters weaken in the final furlong.

Rogue MillionsOpportunityDancing In ParisHumble Spark

Tactical Battle Emerges

25% probability

If one of the pace-setters drops out early leaving moderate tempo

Without sustained pressure, the race becomes more tactical and suits horses that can position closer to the pace. Prominent racers and those with tactical speed gain the advantage.

GhaiyyaTopteamCastle StuartPer Contra

Front-Runner Dominates

12% probability

If Topteam or Claymore gets an easy lead with controlled fractions

The leader can dictate terms and kick clear when the pace lifts, making it difficult for closers to reel them in. Class and stamina reserves prove decisive from the front.

TopteamClaymoreGhaiyyaReal Dream

Stamina Slog Develops

8% probability

If the early pace is moderate but the tempo gradually builds

The race becomes a true staying test where stamina and recent fitness matter most. Horses with proven form at the trip and regular racing gain the edge.

Humble SparkDancing In ParisStar HarbourEnemy

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Claymore and Topteam could go too fast early if both commit to leading, burning each other out

WATCH

Multiple Ian Williams runners in Real Dream, Dancing In Paris and Enemy may struggle with trainer's current form

NOTE

Rogue Millions and Dancing In Paris both return from 266-day breaks, fitness could be major factor

WATCH

Per Contra's habit of slow starts could prove costly in a race likely to be run at genuine pace

NOTE

Opportunity's fitness after 11-month break and gelding operation, debut for Haggas worth noting

2:00 — Betway Reverence Handicap

6f · Good · HCAP · 15 runners

Station X to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Fivethousandtoone and Marty Hopkirk led; the map had Station X in front.

Realign won at 4.33 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up.

5 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Station X

Prominent · 4

Jordan ElectricsDark Cloud RisingMarty HopkirkWild Clary

Midfield · 6

FivethousandtooneHavana RumGrant WoodMister SoxGressingtonNative Honey

Hold Up · 4

RealignBrosayRousing EncoreRecency Bias

Station X is the sole confirmed front-runner and should get an easy lead with no pressure from the 15-runner field. Jordan Electrics, Dark Cloud Rising, and Marty Hopkirk will settle prominently behind him, but none are natural pace-pressers over 6f. The large field means the hold-up horses like Brosay, Mister Sox, Realign, and Wild Clary will be buried deep and need significant luck in running. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers and the lone leader Station X, as the sustainable pace and congested finish will make it difficult for horses coming from the back to make up ground.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Station X Controls All

45% probability

If Station X gets an uncontested lead and kicks clear in the final furlong

The front-runner's sustainable gallop leaves him with enough in reserve to hold off late challengers, while the packed field behind struggles for racing room. His career-best Southwell win shows he can dominate when allowed to dictate.

Station XJordan ElectricsMarty HopkirkWild Clary

Prominent Pair Strike

30% probability

If Jordan Electrics or Dark Cloud Rising track Station X closely and pounce late

The experienced Jordan Electrics uses his class to time his challenge perfectly, or Dark Cloud Rising's early pace helps him strike from a handy position. Both avoid the traffic problems that will plague the hold-up horses.

Jordan ElectricsDark Cloud RisingStation XMarty Hopkirk

Hold-Up Hero Gets Luck

15% probability

If the pace collapses and gaps appear for the closers in the final 2f

Brosay or Wild Clary benefit from their class and get the clear run they need to unleash their finishing kicks. The moderate early pace allows them to close the gap despite their deep positions.

BrosayWild ClaryRealignMister Sox

Chaos Finish Scramble

10% probability

If multiple horses get severely hampered and an outsider finds daylight

The 15-runner field creates a cavalry charge finish where positioning trumps ability. Native Honey or Grant Wood benefit from being in the right place when others are blocked.

Native HoneyGrant WoodRecency BiasRousing Encore

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Station X could steal this if he gets the expected uncontested lead and sustainable fractions that leave him with energy to kick clear

WATCH

Jordan Electrics drops 7lbs from his Victoria Cup run and his prominent style could be perfectly placed to strike behind the leader

WATCH

The 15-runner field will create significant traffic problems for hold-up horses like Brosay and Wild Clary who need clear runs

NOTE

Native Honey's recent 7f Ayr win suggests he's back in form and his 9lb weight advantage could be crucial in a tight finish

NOTE

Dark Cloud Rising showed early pace in his wins last season but needs to bounce back from a disappointing 2024 campaign

2:33 — Betway Achilles Stakes (Listed Race)

5f · Good · LST · 8 runners

Celandine to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Luna A Inbhir Nis led; the map had Celandine in front.

Washington Heights won at 6.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Celandine

Prominent · 3

Washington HeightsTen PoundsLuna A Inbhir Nis

Midfield · 2

Rogue LightningAzure Angel

Hold Up · 2

StarlustRedorange

Celandine will take the field along as the sole confirmed front-runner, with Washington Heights and Ten Pounds likely settling prominently behind her. The presence of just one natural leader means Celandine can dictate terms without pressure, creating a moderate tempo that builds gradually. With multiple hold-up horses including Rogue Lightning, Starlust, Redorange and Azure Angel needing room to maneuver in the short 5f trip, traffic problems are inevitable. This race shape strongly favors front-running and prominent racers who can avoid the scramble and capitalize on a controlled pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Runner

45% probability

If Celandine gets an easy lead with minimal early pressure

She can control fractions perfectly and kick clear when ready, while the hold-up brigade gets caught in traffic behind a strung-out field. The 4yo filly's class edge from her Group 2 Lowther win becomes decisive when she doesn't have to work hard early.

CelandineWashington HeightsTen PoundsLuna A Inbhir Nis

Hold-Up Hero Strikes

30% probability

If the pace becomes genuinely strong or Celandine stops quickly

The closers get the perfect setup to unleash their finishing kicks, with Redorange's recent Windsor win showing his current sharpness. Either Starlust's class or Redorange's form momentum proves decisive in a cavalry charge finish.

RedorangeStarlustRogue LightningAzure Angel

Prominent Tracker Prevails

15% probability

If Washington Heights or Ten Pounds track the leader perfectly and pounce

They get first run on the leaders while avoiding the traffic that snares the hold-up horses behind. Washington Heights' Listed-winning form at this trip gives him the edge if he can find his old spark.

Washington HeightsTen PoundsCelandineLuna A Inbhir Nis

Traffic Chaos Benefits

10% probability

If severe interference occurs in the final furlong creating gaps

Azure Angel or another hold-up horse finds a dream passage through the carnage while others are stopped in their tracks. The 22-1 Bath Listed winner's late kick becomes unstoppable with clear room.

Azure AngelStarlustRedorangeRogue Lightning

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Celandine must break cleanly given her front-running style and awkward start excuse at Newmarket last time

WATCH

Traffic problems developing in final furlong where multiple hold-up horses including Starlust and Redorange need room simultaneously

NOTE

Washington Heights's early position crucial as prominent runner needs to avoid getting squeezed between leader and hold-up horses

WATCH

Redorange and Azure Angel both need significant pace on to be effective, but genuine speed may not materialize

NOTE

Luna A Inbhir Nis showing any early speed could disrupt Celandine's uncontested lead scenario

3:10 — Betway Lester Piggott Fillies' Stakes (Group 3) (Formerly Known As The Pinnacle Stakes)

1m3f · Good · G3 · 8 runners

Azaniya to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Patagonia Girl led; the map had Azaniya in front.

Estrange won at 1.73 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Azaniya

Prominent · 1

Sharpen

Midfield · 4

Crepe SuzetteCoedanaNagaPatagonia Girl

Hold Up · 2

EstrangeWaardah

Azaniya is the sole confirmed front-runner and will dictate terms from flag to finish without pressure, creating a steady, sustainable gallop over this stamina-testing 1m3f trip. With six hold-up horses (Estrange, Waardah, Crepe Suzette, Coedana, Patagonia Girl, Naga) and only Sharpen likely to sit handy, the pace will be moderate early before quickening from the 3f pole. This controlled tempo strongly favours the closers who can unleash late kicks, while the uncontested leader Azaniya faces the tactical disadvantage of making all the running over this demanding distance.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Closers Dominate Late

60% probability

If the pace stays moderate as expected with Azaniya controlling the tempo

The strong group of hold-up horses get the perfect setup to unleash devastating late runs in the final 2f. Estrange and Waardah have the class and finishing kicks to exploit this scenario.

EstrangeWaardahCrepe SuzetteCoedana

Leader Stays Clear

25% probability

If Azaniya sets fractions fast enough to discourage closers or they get locked in traffic

The uncontested leader builds a decisive advantage turning for home and holds off the late challengers. Azaniya's recent Saint-Cloud win shows she can make all effectively when allowed to dictate.

AzaniyaSharpenPatagonia GirlNaga

Mid-Division Strike

10% probability

If the pace collapses completely and Sharpen can position perfectly in behind Azaniya

The prominent runner gets first run on the field from an ideal tracking position while the hold-up horses are caught flat-footed. Sharpen's trainer George Boughey excels with horses returning from breaks.

SharpenCoedanaAzaniyaCrepe Suzette

Pace Fractures Field

5% probability

If Azaniya goes too fast early or the hold-up horses spread wide turning for home

The race becomes a sprint finish between whatever horses have conserved energy best regardless of running style. Form horses with tactical speed like Naga and Patagonia Girl can capitalise on the chaos.

NagaPatagonia GirlEstrangeSharpen

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Azaniya sets unsustainable fractions early as the lone leader, compromising her stamina reserves for the finish

WATCH

Estrange shows any signs of rustiness after 224-day absence despite being defending champion with superior class

NOTE

Sharpen gets prominent position behind Azaniya as the only horse likely to track the leader closely

WATCH

Traffic problems develop in the straight with six hold-up horses all needing room simultaneously

NOTE

Waardah and Azaniya as stablemates create tactical complications for Owen Burrows with conflicting running styles

3:45 — Betway Silver Bowl Handicap (Heritage Handicap)

1m · Good · HCAP · 16 runners

Lead contested: Special Dividend v SponsorHISTORIC

How it ran

Blue Courvoisier and Inishbeg led; the map had Special Dividend and Sponsor in front.

Blue Courvoisier won at 6.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Special DividendSponsor

Prominent · 6

Sir AlbertSuspended SentencePrinclingLangstoneCrest Of FireInishbeg

Midfield · 3

Blue CourvoisierDelinquentAstrazar

Hold Up · 5

Laureate CrownArcher RoyalSynners KidDaydreamaLake Como

Special Dividend and Sponsor will contest the early lead in this 16-runner handicap, with both confirmed front-runners likely to ensure a genuine gallop from the start. The large field means prominent racers like Princling, Blue Courvoisier, and Suspended Sentence will also be positioned handy to the pace, creating a competitive early tempo. This honest pace will set up perfectly for the hold-up horses to deliver their challenge, as the early leaders will have done plenty of work in the opening exchanges. The race shape strongly favours horses with hold-up styles who can finish from off the pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Early Pace

55% probability

If Special Dividend and Sponsor go hard from the flag and maintain a strong gallop

The early leaders will weaken in the final furlong, allowing closers to sweep past with superior finishing kicks. Hold-up horses like Laureate Crown and Daydreama benefit from the strong pace collapse.

Laureate CrownDaydreamaLake ComoAstrazar

Tactical Battle

25% probability

If the pace becomes more measured with neither leader wanting to make the running

The race becomes a sprint finish with prominent racers and those with tactical speed holding sway. Horses like Princling and Blue Courvoisier can dictate from their forward positions.

PrinclingBlue CourvoisierSir AlbertSuspended Sentence

Breakaway Success

12% probability

If one of the front-runners gets an easy lead and controls the fractions

The leader maintains enough energy to hold off late challengers in a front-running success. Special Dividend or Sponsor could exploit their pace advantage if allowed soft fractions early.

Special DividendSponsorDelinquentInishbeg

Wide Open Finish

8% probability

If the pace is chaotic with multiple horses vying for position throughout

The race becomes a scramble where any horse can win regardless of running style. Form horses with recent fitness and good jockeys become crucial factors.

Crest Of FireLangstoneSynners KidArcher Royal

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Special Dividend's fitness after 247 days off the track could see him fade quickly if setting strong pace

WATCH

Archer Royal and Crest Of Fire both return from lengthy breaks and may need the run for future targets

NOTE

Watch the early pace battle between Special Dividend and Sponsor as it will determine the race shape

NOTE

Blue Courvoisier's market position will indicate connections' confidence after recent Ascot disappointment

WATCH

Sir Albert carries top weight and needs Alfie Redman's 7lb claim to prove decisive in this competitive heat

4:20 — Betway Fillies' Handicap

7f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Applesandpears to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Just A Girl and Orchid led; the map had Applesandpears in front.

Albaydaa won at 1.80 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Applesandpears

Prominent · 2

Lady KodiacJust A Girl

Midfield · 3

Jannas JourneyDistant ShoreZiggy's Queen

Hold Up · 3

FouetteOrchidAlbaydaa

Applesandpears will dictate from the front with Lady Kodiac and Just A Girl likely to race prominently behind her, creating a modest but sustainable early gallop. With only one confirmed front-runner and limited early pressure, Applesandpears should get comfortable fractions through the first half of this 7f contest. The lack of genuine pace pressure means the race will develop into a tactical affair where positioning becomes crucial in the straight. This pace setup clearly favours hold-up horses who can pick up the pieces from off the pace, particularly those with finishing kicks over this trip.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Front End

45% probability

If Applesandpears gets uncontested fractions and Lady Kodiac/Just A Girl don't apply early pressure

The pace becomes too slow for closers to make up ground and prominent runners get first run in the straight. Those racing within striking distance can capitalize on the lack of finishing kick from behind.

ApplesandpearsLady KodiacJust A GirlOrchid

Late Closing Surge

35% probability

If the early pace is genuinely steady and the field bunches up turning for home

Hold-up horses with proven finishing speed can exploit the slow pace by unleashing late runs. The race becomes a sprint from the 2f pole where class and acceleration matter most.

AlbaydaaFouetteDistant ShoreZiggy's Queen

Mid Race Injection

15% probability

If Lady Kodiac or Just A Girl decide to challenge Applesandpears before the turn

The increased pace stretches the field and creates a more honest gallop that suits horses with tactical speed. Those able to travel strongly in midfield can strike at the right moment.

Just A GirlOrchidLady KodiacJannas Journey

Front Runner Collapse

5% probability

If Applesandpears stops quickly after setting the pace and prominent runners struggle

The race falls apart from the front creating opportunities for any horse with a turn of foot regardless of position. Form and class become the primary factors in a messy finish.

FouetteAlbaydaaDistant ShoreLady Kodiac

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Applesandpears must be monitored for early pace judgment as she has been keen in the past and could set it up for closers

WATCH

Lady Kodiac's positioning in the first furlong will indicate whether she applies pressure or settles behind the leader

NOTE

Albaydaa's early movement with Marquand aboard could signal connections' confidence in her fitness after 22 days off

WATCH

Orchid's ability to stay this trip remains questionable given her recent struggles beyond 6f on turf

NOTE

Just A Girl's tactical approach with Osborne will show whether she races more patiently than recent efforts

4:55 — Betway Bet £10 Get £60 Handicap

1m · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

St Anton likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Kanishka led; the map had St Anton in front.

St Anton won at 2.75 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

St Anton

Prominent · 2

Sovereign ViewSecret History

Midfield · 3

Blue To BlueKanishkaHoru Kanu

Hold Up · 2

FactualWild Thoughts

St Anton will be the primary pace-setter from the gates, with Secret History and Sovereign View likely to track close behind in prominent positions. The hold-up quartet of Factual, Blue To Blue, Horu Kanu, Kanishka and Wild Thoughts will settle towards the rear, creating a clear split between front and back runners. With only one confirmed front-runner in St Anton, he's unlikely to face early pressure and can dictate a measured gallop. This race shape strongly favours the hold-up horses who can unleash finishing kicks off what should be a sustainable pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If St Anton sets uncontested fractions and the pace becomes pedestrian

The closers get perfect conditions to unleash their turns of foot in the final two furlongs. Multiple hold-up horses can quicken simultaneously off the steady gallop.

FactualWild ThoughtsBlue To BlueKanishka

Prominent Tracker Wins

25% probability

If Secret History or Sovereign View can get first run on the field

The winner gets away from the field before the hold-up horses can respond. St Anton's honest gallop sets up the race but he lacks the class edge at the weights.

Secret HistorySovereign ViewSt AntonFactual

Front Runner Holds On

12% probability

If St Anton kicks clear turning for home and the hold-up horses fail to quicken

The leader's class advantage proves decisive when he finds another gear. The closers are caught flat-footed by the change of pace from the front.

St AntonSecret HistorySovereign ViewFactual

Pace Collapses Completely

8% probability

If the early gallop becomes crawling and turns into a sprint finish

The race becomes a pure speed test over the final three furlongs. The most naturally quick horses benefit regardless of their usual running style.

Wild ThoughtsBlue To BlueSt AntonSecret History

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Wild Thoughts trading short despite rising 28lb in ratings - market confidence could signal another gear

WATCH

St Anton's early position crucial - if others join him up front the race complexion changes completely

WATCH

Secret History and Sovereign View both need to avoid getting trapped behind the slow early pace

NOTE

Blue To Blue's 5lb claimer Jack Nicholls must time his move perfectly against stronger opposition

NOTE

Factual represents the Andrew Balding stable who excel with lightly-raced improvers in competitive handicaps

5:28 — Betway Good Luck Arsenal Handicap

1m · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

Eupator to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Moon Beginnings led; the map had Eupator in front.

Priapos won at 7.50 — raced midfield, as the map had it.

2 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Eupator

Prominent · 3

Moon BeginningsAyr PoetElizabeth Bay

Midfield · 4

PriaposMr KingJez BombMarry The Night

Hold Up · 3

CandonomoreFreddie Steady GoCount Palatine

Eupator will take them along from the front as the only confirmed pace-setter, likely setting a manageable gallop without pressure from Ayr Poet and Elizabeth Bay who can track prominently. The lack of early speed means the tempo will build gradually through the middle sections before quickening from the 3f pole. With most runners coming from off the pace including Count Palatine, Candonomore, and Mr King, this sets up perfectly for hold-up horses who can finish strongly. This race shape clearly favours the patient hold-up merchants who can capitalise on the modest early gallop.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

60% probability

If Eupator sets uncontested fractions and the pace builds late.

The patient closers get the perfect set-up to unleash their finishing kicks from the back, with plenty left in the tank for a sustained drive. Those held up can pick off the early leaders who've had to do too much work in front.

Count PalatineCandonomoreFreddie Steady GoPriapos

Front Runners Steal March

20% probability

If Eupator maintains a strong gallop and isn't caught by the closers.

The lack of early pace pressure allows Eupator to dictate terms and kick clear when the field comes under pressure, with prominent runners like Ayr Poet staying on. The hold-up horses find themselves with too much ground to make up in the closing stages.

EupatorAyr PoetElizabeth BayMoon Beginnings

Mid-Division Surge

12% probability

If the pace collapses completely and those tracking just behind take over.

Runners like Moon Beginnings and Elizabeth Bay who sit in behind the leader can time their move perfectly when Eupator weakens. They avoid the traffic problems that affect the back markers while having enough left to outsprint the tired pace-setters.

Moon BeginningsElizabeth BayJez BombMarry The Night

Tactical Muddle

8% probability

If jockeys get the fractions wrong and create a sprint finish.

The modest pace becomes a crawl before exploding into a cavalry charge where positioning matters more than running style. This creates chaos where any horse in the right place at the right time can capitalise regardless of their preferred tactics.

Mr KingJez BombPriaposMarry The Night

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Eupator without his regular blinkers could either improve or lose focus as the only pace-setter

WATCH

Moon Beginnings and Mr King both show fading tendencies in the finish which could be exposed in a slowly-run race

NOTE

Count Palatine returning to Carlisle where he won over 7f and the stiff track should suit his finishing kick

WATCH

Ayr Poet racing off a 6lb higher mark than his last win and may find this tougher despite recent good form

NOTE

Priapos and Marry The Night both returning to turf after AW success and need to prove the form translates

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 30 May 2026.

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