Archive›Carlisle · 4 April 2026

Carlisle

4 April 2026 · 8 races

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12:43 — Cumberland Show Saturday 6th June Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m3½f · Soft · CLS4 · 10 runners

Jet Noir likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Maccarellu led; the map had Jet Noir in front.

Dream On Mick won at 8.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Jet Noir

Prominent · 2

Tap Tap ShamieMaccarellu

Midfield · 4

Patrick's WellsDream On MickThe ShanachieThe Grey Venture

Hold Up · 3

Last Man StandingAristelleMcElhattan

Jet Noir is the obvious pace-setter with his prominent style and front-running tendencies, likely to dictate from the start with little early pressure from this field. Tap Tap Shamie and Maccarellu may track him in the early stages, but both prefer to come off the pace rather than engage early. The numerous hold-up horses (Aristelle, McElhattan, Last Man Standing, The Grey Venture) will be content to let Jet Noir bowl along unchallenged through the first half of the race. This sets up perfectly for prominent runners and those who can track the pace without getting involved in early battles, as Jet Noir's tendency to fade late will leave the race open for horses positioned just behind him.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Jet Noir Fades Late

45% probability

If Jet Noir sets his usual honest pace but weakens in the final half-mile as his form suggests.

The prominent runners who track him without pressure get first run on the field, while the hold-up horses are left with too much to do on the testing ground. Tap Tap Shamie and Dream On Mick are perfectly positioned to capitalize.

Tap Tap ShamieDream On MickMaccarelluPatrick's Wells

Pace Collapses Early

25% probability

If Jet Noir fails to fire or gets headed early, creating a muddling pace scenario.

The race becomes a sprint from the home turn, heavily favoring the hold-up horses who can produce their best turn of foot. Aristelle and McElhattan can time their challenges perfectly in a slowly-run affair.

AristelleMcElhattanLast Man StandingThe Grey Venture

True Staying Test

20% probability

If the testing ground and trip combine to create a genuine stamina examination throughout.

The ex-point winners come to the fore as their three-mile experience proves crucial over this extended trip. Patrick's Wells and The Grey Venture, despite their flaws, have the background for a proper staying test.

Patrick's WellsThe Grey VentureDream On MickTap Tap Shamie

Shock Outsider Strikes

10% probability

If the market leaders all disappoint and a bigger-priced runner capitalizes on the chaos.

The pace scenario suits an unfancied runner who gets an uncontested run through, with The Shanachie or Last Man Standing picking up the pieces. Their poor recent form masks ability that could surface in these conditions.

The ShanachieLast Man StandingMcElhattanAristelle

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Jet Noir could set unopposed fractions and prove harder to peg back than his fading pattern suggests

WATCH

Dream On Mick making hurdles debut for Philip Kirby could surprise despite lack of experience over obstacles

WATCH

Patrick's Wells returning after 882-day absence faces serious fitness questions regardless of past Irish point ability

NOTE

The pace early on will be crucial - if Jet Noir doesn't go forward immediately the race dynamics change completely

NOTE

Ground conditions favor the Irish point winners who have proven soft ground form over the bumper/hurdles runners

1:13 — Feel Good Friday 29th May Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

3m½f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Benmore likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Orkney Blue led; the map had Benmore in front.

Big Zouk won at 6.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Benmore

Prominent · 2

Loulou MadrikBig Zouk

Midfield · 2

Eaton AnneOrkney Blue

Hold Up · 2

I Wish YouYou Some Girl

Benmore appears the only confirmed front runner in this 7-runner field, likely to get an uncontested lead with Big Zouk and Loulou Madrik settling just behind in prominent positions. The majority of the field (I Wish You, You Some Girl, Orkney Blue, Eaton Anne) are hold-up horses who will need the pace to develop and the race to unfold before making their moves in the straight. With limited early pace and plenty of hold-up horses, this sets up as a steadily-run affair that will turn into a sprint finish. This race shape clearly favours the front runners and prominent racers who can avoid the traffic problems that will inevitably affect the large hold-up contingent.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dominance

45% probability

If Benmore gets an easy lead and isn't pressured early.

The race becomes a procession with Benmore able to dictate fractions and kick clear when the hold-up horses are still organizing behind. The prominent runners get first run on the large pack of hold-up horses who get caught flat-footed.

BenmoreBig ZoukLoulou MadrikI Wish You

Hold-Up Traffic Chaos

30% probability

If the pace is too slow and multiple hold-up horses get trapped behind traffic.

With five hold-up horses all needing room and racing for the same gaps, several get hampered while one or two get clear runs. The ones with clear passage capitalize while others are left with too much to do.

I Wish YouOrkney BlueYou Some GirlEaton Anne

Prominent Pressure Cooker

15% probability

If Big Zouk or Loulou Madrik decide to pressure Benmore early.

The increased pace sets up perfectly for the hold-up horses as the early leaders tire from their battle. One of the prominent racers who stays out of the early battle benefits from the stronger gallop.

Big ZoukLoulou MadrikEaton AnneYou Some Girl

Stamina Test Finish

10% probability

If the pace stays strong throughout and it becomes a true test of staying power.

The 3m½f trip and sustained gallop finds out any with stamina limitations. The more experienced stayers come to the fore while those unproven at the distance fade.

I Wish YouYou Some GirlOrkney BlueEaton Anne

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Benmore gets too easy a lead early and is allowed to dictate the fractions unchallenged

WATCH

Traffic problems develop in the straight with five hold-up horses all looking for racing room simultaneously

WATCH

You Some Girl's fitness after 99 days off and whether the longer trip suits on just her second chase start

NOTE

Big Zouk's jumping under pressure if asked to race more aggressively than on his debut win

NOTE

Eaton Anne's response to first-time blinkers and whether the headgear change improves her fluency

1:48 — Bell & Plate 24th June Handicap Hurdle

3m1f · Soft · HCAP · 11 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Guernesey led; the map had Kyntara and Rocheval and Ballin Bay in front.

Jupiter Des Mottes won at 2.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

KyntaraRochevalBallin Bay

Prominent · 2

RamoGuernesey

Midfield · 3

Robert d'OresMaura JeanneCooler Than Me

Hold Up · 3

Jupiter Des MottesDr SebAdveram

Kyntara, Rocheval and Ballin Bay will ensure a searching gallop from the start over this stamina-sapping trip on testing ground. The three confirmed front-runners will likely go at it from flag-fall, with Ramo and Guernesey tracking close behind in the early stages. The sustained pace over 3m1f on good to soft ground will stretch the field and expose stamina limitations. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses with proven staying power who can pick up the pieces when the early pace takes its toll.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Gallop Collapses

55% probability

If Kyntara, Rocheval and Ballin Bay engage in a pace duel through the middle stages

The relentless early gallop will weaken the leaders turning for home, creating opportunities for patient hold-up horses with superior stamina reserves. Fresh legs and tactical positioning become decisive advantages in the closing stages.

Jupiter Des MottesDr SebCooler Than MeMaura Jeanne

Front Runner Survives

25% probability

If one of the three pace-setters can secure easy leads without serious pressure

Ballin Bay or Kyntara could dominate if allowed to dictate terms without fierce early competition, using their natural speed to build an unassailable advantage. The lack of pace pressure would suit their front-running styles perfectly.

Ballin BayKyntaraRochevalRamo

Prominent Tracker Strikes

12% probability

If Ramo or Guernesey can sit just behind the leaders without getting involved in early pace battles

These prominent racers can track the pace-setters before launching telling challenges when the front-runners begin to tire. Their tactical positioning allows them to benefit from the strong gallop while conserving energy for the finish.

RamoGuerneseyRobert d'OresAdveram

Pace Collapses Completely

8% probability

If all three front-runners go too fast too early and fade dramatically

A tactical crawl would develop in the final mile, favouring horses with turn of foot rather than pure staying power. The race would become more about acceleration than stamina, completely changing the complexion.

Cooler Than MeDr SebJupiter Des MottesMaura Jeanne

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Rocheval and Kyntara could cook each other in a speed duel, opening the door for hold-up horses

WATCH

Ballin Bay's recent chase success may not translate directly back to hurdles competition under pressure

NOTE

Robert d'Ores shows excellent fresh form but 148-day break represents significant time away from competition

WATCH

Adveram's two pull-ups raise serious stamina concerns despite cheekpieces being refitted for this assignment

NOTE

Dr Seb returning from 587-day absence makes his true current ability level difficult to assess accurately

2:23 — Ladies Night 4th July Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle (Div I)

2m3½f · Soft · HCAP · 10 runners

Rock N Roll Champ to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Belvedere Bhoy won at 2.40 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Rock N Roll Champ

Prominent · 3

GonninoTakeyoutotheislandBlended Stealth

Midfield · 3

King KodiakGone With The TideBelvedere Bhoy

Hold Up · 3

Je Mr DawsonSattamKicksaftersix

Rock N Roll Champ will lead from the start with only Gonnino and Takeyoutotheisland providing any early pace pressure, creating a manageable gallop for the leaders. The numerous hold-up horses (Sattam, Kicksaftersix, Je Mr Dawson, Gone With The Tide, Belvedere Bhoy, King Kodiak) will be held back, relying on a finishing kick. With limited early pace, Rock N Roll Champ can dictate terms and stretch the field gradually, making it harder for closers to make up ground on the soft ground. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners and the lone leader, as the hold-up horses will face a tactical disadvantage with insufficient pace to aim at.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Rock N Roll Dictates

45% probability

If Rock N Roll Champ gets an uncontested lead and controls the tempo

He can kick clear turning in before the closers get organized, with Gonnino best placed to capitalize if the leader weakens. The soft ground aids stamina over speed, suiting the patient approach of these front-runners.

Rock N Roll ChampGonninoTakeyoutotheislandSattam

Prominent Battle Emerges

30% probability

If Gonnino and Takeyoutotheisland press Rock N Roll Champ from the start

The increased early pace sets up a genuine staying test where class tells late in the race. Sattam's strong finishing kick becomes more effective with a proper pace to aim at.

SattamKicksaftersixGonninoJe Mr Dawson

Hold-Up Swoop

15% probability

If the early pace completely collapses and becomes crawling

The race becomes a sprint finish where the best finishers can overcome their poor tactical position. Belvedere Bhoy and King Kodiak benefit from their recent course experience.

Belvedere BhoyKing KodiakSattamJe Mr Dawson

Pace Collapse Chaos

10% probability

If Rock N Roll Champ stops suddenly and no other pace emerges

The race turns into a tactical muddle where positioning matters more than ability. Takeyoutotheisland's prominent position gives him first run on the field.

TakeyoutotheislandBlended StealthGonninoBelvedere Bhoy

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Rock N Roll Champ could get an uncontested lead with Edward Austin's 5lb claim making him very competitive

WATCH

Sattam and other hold-up horses may struggle if Rock N Roll Champ dictates a slow early pace

NOTE

Gone With The Tide's return from wind surgery and two pull-ups makes him unreliable

WATCH

Kicksaftersix faces fitness concerns after 294-day absence despite previous winning form

NOTE

King Kodiak's jumping errors last time could prove costly if repeated under pressure

2:57 — Ladies Night 4th July Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle (Div II)

2m3½f · Soft · HCAP · 10 runners

Lord De Vinci likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Au Plaisir and Blazing Court led; the map had Lord De Vinci in front.

Different Drum won at 4.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Lord De Vinci

Prominent · 2

Blazing CourtHobnail

Midfield · 4

Knockeranna RoseShouldvebeenshavOut On Her OwnBray Dale

Hold Up · 3

Hang OnAu PlaisirDifferent Drum

Lord De Vinci will likely lead or press the early pace alongside Blazing Court and Hobnail, creating a moderate gallop over this testing 2m3½f trip on soft ground. The pace should be sustainable rather than punishing, with no confirmed tearaway leaders in the field. The combination of soft going, extended distance, and lack of early pressure will create a steady tempo that builds gradually. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can stay on from off the pace, as they'll have the most petrol left when the real racing begins after the final flight.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If the early pace is steady and the leaders tire after 2m

The lack of genuine speed horses allows patient riders to time their challenges perfectly, with soft ground suiting strong stayers. Hold-up specialists get first run on tiring pace-setters.

Different DrumAu PlaisirOut On Her OwnKnockeranna Rose

Front Rank Stays Strong

25% probability

If Lord De Vinci or Blazing Court maintains stamina to the line

One of the early leaders proves more resilient than expected over this trip, holding off late challengers on the testing ground. Prominent racers benefit from tactical positioning and avoid traffic problems.

Lord De VinciBlazing CourtShouldvebeenshavHang On

Mid-Division Squeeze Play

12% probability

If the pace collapses completely in the final half-mile

Horses positioned in fourth or fifth get caught between fading leaders and late closers, creating a bunched finish. Those with tactical speed from midfield positions can exploit gaps.

Out On Her OwnShouldvebeenshavDifferent DrumKnockeranna Rose

Outsider Surprise Package

8% probability

If Hang On runs fresh after his 837-day break

The veteran shows renewed enthusiasm after his mammoth absence, using class to outbattle lesser rivals in testing conditions. His hold-up style suits if fitness holds.

Hang OnBray DaleHobnailAu Plaisir

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Lord De Vinci could set too strong a pace early given his chasing frustrations and eagerness to dominate

WATCH

Blazing Court's amateur jockey may misjudge the tempo after the horse's long absence and ring-rustiness

NOTE

Different Drum's jumping efficiency will be crucial as any mistakes could compromise his strong finishing kick

WATCH

Hang On's fitness after 837 days off - watch for early signs of wellbeing or laboured breathing

NOTE

Out On Her Own's position turning in will dictate her chances as she needs clear running room late

3:27 — Flat Season Opener Monday 18th May Handicap Chase

3m½f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Voleur De Terres likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Jamesieconn led; the map had Voleur De Terres in front.

Jamesieconn won at 1.91 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Voleur De Terres

Prominent · 2

Steal The MovesTory Hill

Midfield · 3

JamesieconnDon BroccoKingofthegame

Hold Up · 3

Super CitizenBaptism Of FireGirls Best Friend

Voleur De Terres will be the only confirmed leader in this small field, likely to get an uncontested lead with the rest being hold-up horses or occasional prominent runners. With Steal The Moves and Tory Hill the only other prominent types, the pace will be sedate early before quickening from the home turn. This sustainable gallop will allow hold-up horses like Super Citizen, Girls Best Friend and Jamesieconn to position ideally for late strikes. The race shape strongly favours hold-up performers who can deliver finishing kicks from off the pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Pace Suits Closers

65% probability

If Voleur De Terres leads uncontested and the pace stays steady until 4 out

The field will be tightly bunched turning in, allowing the best hold-up horses to unleash late runs and exploit their superior finishing speed. Super Citizen and Girls Best Friend have the class to capitalise on this tactical advantage.

Super CitizenGirls Best FriendJamesieconnDon Brocco

Early Pace Pressure

20% probability

If Steal The Moves or Tory Hill challenge Voleur De Terres early and increase the gallop

The sustained pace will string out the field and favour horses that can travel strongly in midfield before staying on. Jamesieconn's recent front-running form suggests he can adapt to pressing tactics.

JamesieconnSteal The MovesSuper CitizenVoleur De Terres

Wire-to-Wire Leader

10% probability

If Voleur De Terres maintains his February form and dictates throughout without serious challenge

His recent wins at Leicester and Warwick show renewed confidence, and an unchallenged lead could see him stay on strongly up the hill. The prominent runners lack the pace to challenge early enough.

Voleur De TerresDon BroccoSuper CitizenSteal The Moves

Pace Collapse Favours Stamina

5% probability

If the early pace is extremely sedate with no pressure on Voleur De Terres until very late

The race becomes a pure stamina test where the most genuine stayers prevail regardless of position. Don Brocco's recent Hexham run over 4m suggests he relishes these grinding finishes.

Don BroccoSuper CitizenJamesieconnGirls Best Friend

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Baptism Of Fire has pulled up in five consecutive runs since returning and looks a non-runner at the business end

WATCH

Steal The Moves has mixed form this season and needs to reproduce his Ffos Las effort before the unseating rider incident

NOTE

Super Citizen is 12 years old but has thrived at this track recently and the 27-day break should have him spot-on

NOTE

Voleur De Terres must prove his February revival was genuine against this stronger opposition after looking a lost cause

WATCH

Jamesieconn made all last time but faces a stiffer test here and may need to adapt his front-running tactics

4:05 — Book In Advance Save £5 Handicap Hurdle (Div I)

2m3½f · Soft · HCAP · 10 runners

Ryebridge likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Wind Your Neck In led; the map had Ryebridge in front.

Moyganny Phil won at 2.75 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Ryebridge

Prominent · 3

Micks JetMatching EnergyMoyganny Phil

Midfield · 3

The Best WayChumleeHeritier

Hold Up · 3

Two BrothersLas CanalsWind Your Neck In

Ryebridge will take this along at a steady gallop from the front, with Moyganny Phil and Micks Jet tracking close behind in the prominent positions. The pace will be genuine but not frantic over this extended trip, with the hold-up horses including Two Brothers, Wind Your Neck In, and Las Canals settling towards the rear. This setup creates a race where the front-runners may get first run, but the strong finishers will have their chance if they can position well enough. This pace dynamic favours prominent racers who can sit handy and kick when it matters, as they get the best of both worlds.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runners Dominate

45% probability

If Ryebridge maintains control and the pace stays even throughout.

The prominent horses get first run and the hold-up brigade can't make up the ground on the testing ground. Ryebridge and Moyganny Phil benefit from their forward positions.

RyebridgeMoyganny PhilMicks JetMatching Energy

Strong Finisher Prevails

35% probability

If the pace quickens significantly from halfway and the leaders tire.

Two Brothers produces his trademark late surge while Wind Your Neck In also benefits from the strong pace. The hold-up horses get the perfect scenario to unleash their finishing kicks.

Two BrothersWind Your Neck InLas CanalsHeritier

Pace Collapse Scenario

12% probability

If Ryebridge goes too slow and the field bunches up entering the straight.

The race becomes a sprint finish where positioning matters more than running style. Any horse with tactical speed can capitalize regardless of their usual running pattern.

Las CanalsMatching EnergyMoyganny PhilWind Your Neck In

Ryebridge Wires Field

8% probability

If Ryebridge kicks clear turning in and none of the closers respond effectively.

The dead-heat winner repeats his C&D success by dictating terms throughout and finding enough in the tank. His front-running tactics prove too much for the opposition to peg back.

RyebridgeMicks JetTwo BrothersMoyganny Phil

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Ryebridge could steal this if he gets an uncontested lead, as his dead-heat form here gives him a significant tactical edge.

WATCH

Two Brothers dropping cheekpieces after his strong finish last time could blunt his effectiveness in the closing stages.

WATCH

Micks Jet's 349-day absence is a major fitness concern despite his higher rating than most of these rivals.

NOTE

Wind Your Neck In's recent breakthrough win suggests improvement but he needs the pace to develop properly for his hold-up style.

NOTE

Moyganny Phil stepping up significantly in trip for the first time could find the extra distance suits his running style.

4:40 — Book In Advance Save £5 Handicap Hurdle (Div II)

2m3½f · Soft · HCAP · 9 runners

Tarbuck likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Devon Skies led; the map had Tarbuck in front.

Kado Sacree won at 2.10 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Tarbuck

Prominent · 1

Yapper Hill

Midfield · 4

Devon SkiesGuet ApensDisco AnnieHalf Track

Hold Up · 3

Red CadillacRauzanKado Sacree

Tarbuck is the only natural front-runner in this field and should be allowed to dictate terms from the outset without serious early pressure. Yapper Hill may track close but lacks the commitment to truly challenge for the lead, allowing Tarbuck to set a sustainable gallop over this staying trip. The large contingent of hold-up horses including Red Cadillac, Devon Skies, Rauzan and Disco Annie will settle behind and rely on late finishing kicks. This tactical setup strongly favours prominent racers and those with proven finishing speed, as the lack of genuine pace pressure will create a sprint finish that punishes one-paced plodders.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

35% probability

If Tarbuck gets an easy lead and finds his rhythm from his 70-day break...

The lack of pace pressure allows him to dictate throughout and kick clear when the field comes to him. His previous course winner profile at this trip becomes decisive when not bustled for speed early.

TarbuckDevon SkiesRed Cadillac

Hold-Up Brigade Sprint

40% probability

If the slow early pace sets up perfectly for the closers with finishing speed...

Red Cadillac and Devon Skies can unleash their proven finishing kicks from off the pace as Tarbuck's long absence tells in the final furlong. The soft ground amplifies stamina demands that favour the more race-fit runners.

Red CadillacDevon SkiesDisco AnnieRauzan

Pace Collapses Early

15% probability

If Tarbuck's fitness gives way or Yapper Hill applies unexpected early pressure...

The race becomes a test of pure stamina over the final half-mile where class and recent form become paramount. Horses with proven course form like Disco Annie can capitalize on the tactical chaos.

Disco AnnieRauzanHalf TrackKado Sacree

Surprise Improver Strikes

10% probability

If Kado Sacree or Half Track finds significant improvement from their poor recent form...

The step up in trip and headgear changes unlock hidden ability that hasn't been seen in shorter races this season. Their bigger prices reflect overlooked potential rather than true ability.

Kado SacreeHalf TrackYapper HillTarbuck

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Tarbuck's jumping and stamina reserves after 70 days off the track when the field inevitably comes to challenge.

WATCH

Red Cadillac's ability to handle the step back up in trip after his recent 2m4f success at Ayr.

WATCH

Devon Skies' recovery from his Sedgefield pulled-up effort despite the subsequent Catterick win.

NOTE

Yapper Hill's response to first-time tongue-tie and whether it unlocks more consistent jumping.

NOTE

Kado Sacree's market support given his poor recent form but handicapping debut opportunity.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 4 April 2026.

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