Archive›Cartmel · 27 May 2026

Cartmel

27 May 2026 · 6 races

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6:08 — William Hill Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m1f · Good · CLS4 · 7 runners

Etretat to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Masekela led; the map had Etretat in front.

Flying Ace won at 1.73 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Etretat

Prominent · 2

Military CrossFlying Ace

Midfield · 2

MasekelaRibble River

Hold Up · 2

Big Gypsy KingColinski

Etretat is the only confirmed front runner and will dictate terms from the start without pressure in this small field. Military Cross and Flying Ace are likely to sit prominent but neither has shown strong early pace, creating a moderate tempo through the early stages. The lack of genuine pace pressure will allow the leaders to conserve energy for a sustained finish. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can track the modest pace and hold-up horses with a turn of foot, as the gentle gallop will produce a sprint finish where class and acceleration matter most.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Lead Holds

45% probability

If Etretat gets an easy lead and jumps cleanly throughout

The front runner faces no pace pressure and can dictate ideal fractions, making it hard for hold-up horses to reel him in on Cartmel's tight track. His stamina advantage becomes decisive in the final furlong when others tire from their finishing efforts.

EtretatMilitary CrossFlying AceColinski

Prominent Pair Dominate

30% probability

If Military Cross and Flying Ace track Etretat closely and put pressure on turning in

The two higher-rated prominent runners use their class advantage to wear down the leader and pull clear of the hold-up brigade. Their superior form and ratings tell in a sustained battle from three out.

Military CrossFlying AceEtretatColinski

Hold-Up Horse Springs

15% probability

If the pace becomes crawling and sets up a sprint finish from the last hurdle

The lack of early gallop plays into the hands of a hold-up horse with a turn of foot who can quicken dramatically. Colinski's Flat speed or an improving Ribble River could exploit the tactical scenario.

ColinskiRibble RiverMilitary CrossFlying Ace

Outsider Benefits Chaos

10% probability

If multiple horses make jumping errors or the pace collapses completely

The race becomes a lottery where ratings and form count for less than a clear round of jumping and tactical positioning. An unfancied runner like Masekela stays out of trouble and picks up the pieces.

MasekelaRibble RiverEtretatMilitary Cross

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Etretat's jumping ability after flopping badly at Perth - any early mistakes will compromise his front-running tactics completely.

WATCH

Military Cross settling kindly on hurdles debut with Richie McLernon - if he fights for his head early, it ruins his chance.

WATCH

The pace through the first circuit with only one natural leader - a crawling gallop could set up a sprint finish.

NOTE

Colinski's jumping fluency after showing promise but making mistakes on debut at Hexham.

NOTE

Big Gypsy King's fitness levels after 220 days off and whether his finishing kick has returned.

6:38 — In Memory Of Jimmy Latham Selling Handicap Hurdle

2m1f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners

Zhang Fei to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Mr Rumbalicious led; the map had Zhang Fei in front.

Alvesta won at 17.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.

5 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Zhang Fei

Prominent · 4

Book Of SecretsCharacter TestingRestandbethankfulMr Globalist

Midfield · 4

Silent RevolutionAlvestaMr RumbaliciousHashtag Queen

Hold Up · 4

Frank StamperZamondJustlikefireMojo Ego

Zhang Fei will take the field along from the front as the only confirmed leader, likely joined by Book Of Secrets and Character Testing in the early stages. With Zhang Fei struggling over hurdles recently and the prominent runners showing mixed form, the pace should be sustainable rather than punishing. This tactical setup strongly favours hold-up horses like Zamond, Frank Stamper, and Justlikefire who can benefit from the steady gallop and position themselves for late strikes. The race shape clearly suits patient tactics over early positioning.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If Zhang Fei sets a modest pace and the prominent runners fail to sustain pressure

The steady gallop allows the back-markers to get into contention turning for home, with Zamond's class and Frank Stamper's recent placed form proving decisive. Both horses have the tactical speed to win from off the pace when the race develops this way.

ZamondFrank StamperJustlikefireMojo Ego

Prominent Runners Strike

25% probability

If Book Of Secrets or Character Testing can dominate the pace-setting Zhang Fei and maintain strong positions throughout

The early leaders get first run on the field and their superior fitness tells in the closing stages. Book Of Secrets' experience at this level and Character Testing's recent run give them the edge over tiring hold-up horses.

Book Of SecretsCharacter TestingZhang FeiRestandbethankful

Pace Collapses Late

12% probability

If Zhang Fei stops quickly and the prominent runners also weaken, creating a sprint finish from the back

The lack of early pressure means multiple horses arrive with chances, favouring those with the best recent form regardless of style. Mojo Ego's course form and Justlikefire's Uttoxeter second become crucial factors in a bunched finish.

Mojo EgoJustlikefireFrank StamperBook Of Secrets

Front Runner Surprise

8% probability

If Zhang Fei improves dramatically dropping into a seller for the first time and gets an uncontested lead

The lack of early pressure allows Zhang Fei to dictate terms completely and his stamina proves superior to pursuing horses. His recent Flat form suggests untapped potential that this class drop might unlock.

Zhang FeiRestandbethankfulCharacter TestingBook Of Secrets

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Zhang Fei could get an uncontested lead if the other prominent runners fail to go forward early enough

WATCH

Book Of Secrets and Character Testing must show pace early or risk being trapped behind a slow tempo

NOTE

Frank Stamper's recovery from his poor run 10 days ago will indicate if he can bounce back to recent placed form

WATCH

Zamond's fitness after 167 days off will be crucial given his hold-up style requires a strong finishing kick

NOTE

Several horses carrying significant weight penalties or out of the weights could struggle in the closing stages

7:08 — Traffic Management Handicap Hurdle

2m6f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

Lead contested: Musique De Fee v BittalemonHISTORIC

How it ran

Bittalemon led, as the map showed.

Dickens won at 10.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

7 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Musique De FeeBittalemon

Prominent · 4

Sea The CloudsLowlandsRioja AltaSwingingonthesteel

Midfield · 2

RauzanBeny Nahar Road

Hold Up · 3

HillviewDickensGot Grey

Musique De Fee and Bittalemon are the two natural pace-setters, with Musique De Fee running her third race in five days after showing prominent tendencies in blinkers, while Bittalemon has won twice leading at this track over shorter trips. Sea The Clouds, Lowlands, and Rioja Alta will likely sit prominent just behind the leaders, creating a decent gallop over this extended 2m6f trip. The pace should be honest but not frantic, with the real business happening from the final hurdle as the stamina test kicks in. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can stay the trip and finish, as the pace-setters are vulnerable late having had recent hard races.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Prevail

55% probability

If the pace-setters weaken markedly in the final half-mile after setting honest fractions.

The extended trip and recent exertions of the front-runners create perfect conditions for closers to sweep past tired leaders. Horses with tactical speed who can stay this demanding distance will have clear runs through tired horses.

Beny Nahar RoadDickensHillviewGot Grey

Prominent Tracker Strikes

25% probability

If one of the prominent runners can secure the ideal position tracking the pace without getting involved early.

Sea The Clouds or Lowlands can sit in the perfect stalking spot and have enough left to outstay both the pace-setters and hold off the closers. Their recent form and course experience becomes crucial in a tactical finish.

Sea The CloudsLowlandsRauzanRioja Alta

Pace Collapses Early

12% probability

If both Musique De Fee and Bittalemon fail to handle their recent exertions and drop out before halfway.

The race becomes a messy affair with no clear pace, suiting horses who can adapt tactically and quicken when needed. Mid-division runners who can adjust to the changing tempo will benefit most from the lack of early pace.

RauzanGot GreyHillviewRioja Alta

Front-Runner Survives

8% probability

If Musique De Fee's recent runs have actually sharpened her up rather than weakened her for this longer trip.

Despite her heavy schedule, the mare's class tells and she can dictate throughout, with her early pace advantage proving decisive. Only horses who can live with her early speed will have a chance of reeling her in late.

Musique De FeeBittalemonLowlandsSea The Clouds

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Musique De Fee may not handle her third run in five days over this extended trip having raced Monday and Saturday

WATCH

Bittalemon's stamina limitations were exposed over 3m1f on Saturday and this 2m6f trip may still stretch her

NOTE

Beny Nahar Road returning from 253-day absence but Jamie Hamilton's 7lb claim could prove significant if fitness holds

WATCH

Got Grey disappointed badly as favourite in chase here on Monday which suggests current form is questionable

NOTE

Sea The Clouds has strong course form and nearly won this race last year off similar mark under Charlotte Jones

7:38 — Join Rebecca Menzies Racing Club Handicap Hurdle

3m1½f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

Lead contested: Dusky Days v Poetry ManHISTORIC

How it ran

Poetry Man led, as the map showed.

Kingofthegame won at 6.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it.

5 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Dusky DaysPoetry Man

Prominent · 4

Wee AlkiJack SpratEbselyseesSecret Secret

Midfield · 2

KingofthegameDefying Gravity

Hold Up · 3

I Am Spider ManEvenwood SonofagunGustavo Goodway

Poetry Man and Dusky Days will contest the early lead, with both natural front-runners likely to set an honest gallop over this marathon 3m1½f trip. Poetry Man showed renewed vigor in his visor on Monday and should prove the stronger pace-setter, while Dusky Days has been disappointing lately and may fold earlier. The sustained tempo will stretch the field and create a genuine staying test. This honest pace will favor the prominent racers and strong finishers who can close from midfield, disadvantaging pure hold-up horses who need a muddling pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Honest Gallop Benefits

45% probability

If Poetry Man and Dusky Days maintain a true pace through halfway

The sustained tempo plays to the strengths of prominent racers like Wee Alki and Ebselysees who can track the pace and kick when it matters. Hold-up horses struggle to make up ground in the closing stages.

Wee AlkiEbselyseesJack SpratSecret Secret

Front Runner Dominates

25% probability

If Poetry Man gets an easy lead with Dusky Days failing to go the pace early

The visor-wearing Poetry Man gets first run on his rivals and proves hard to peg back despite his modest recent form. His early positioning advantage becomes decisive over this stamina-sapping distance.

Poetry ManEvenwood SonofagunWee AlkiJack Sprat

Late Surge Prevails

20% probability

If the early pace becomes overly strong and the front-runners tire dramatically

The honest gallop sets up perfectly for I Am Spider Man and Evenwood Sonofagun to use their proven staying power. These battle-hardened stayers pick up the pieces when the pace-setters fade in the final half-mile.

I Am Spider ManEvenwood SonofagunEbselyseesJack Sprat

Moderate Pace Setup

10% probability

If both front-runners go off too fast early and subsequently crawl

The lack of sustained pace allows hold-up horses to get into contention but creates a messy tactical affair. The moderate tempo suits versatile sorts who can adapt their position during the race.

Jack SpratSecret SecretKingofthegameDefying Gravity

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Poetry Man could get an uncontested lead if Dusky Days fails to go the early pace and dominate tactically

WATCH

Wee Alki's claimer Rebekah Duffy taking 7lbs off a horse in excellent form makes them very dangerous

NOTE

Evenwood Sonofagun showed a return to form on Monday after wind surgery and loves this course

WATCH

Jack Sprat switching from successful Snowden yard to new connections after 40-day break creates uncertainty

NOTE

Gustavo Goodway's 162-day absence and three successive pull-ups make him hard to trust despite his Ireland win

8:08 — Birchall Trust Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m5f · Good · HCAP · 3 runners

Caughtinyourtrance to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Caughtinyourtrance led, as the map showed.

Off The Jury won at 2.10 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Caughtinyourtrance

Prominent · 1

Hostile Hotelier

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 1

Off The Jury

Caughtinyourtrance will dictate terms from the front in this small field, with his confirmed leading style facing no obvious early pressure from either Hostile Hotelier (prominent) or Off The Jury (hold-up). The pace should be sustainable and measured over 2m5f, allowing the leader to control fractions without being harassed early. Off The Jury will need to rely on his strong staying power from the back, while Hostile Hotelier must position prominently to strike. This controlled tempo clearly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can avoid a finish reliant on pure acceleration.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Caughtinyourtrance Controls All

45% probability

If the leader faces no early pressure and dictates comfortable fractions

Caughtinyourtrance gets an uncontested lead and kicks clear approaching the final fence, with the pace never quick enough to expose his stamina. The hold-up horse Off The Jury cannot generate enough late momentum to reel in the controlling leader.

CaughtinyourtranceHostile HotelierOff The Jury

Prominent Challenge Succeeds

30% probability

If Hostile Hotelier travels strongly and challenges turning for home

The prominent runner gets first run on the leader while Off The Jury is still gathering momentum from the rear. Hostile Hotelier's superior finishing kick from a forward position proves decisive in the final furlong.

Hostile HotelierCaughtinyourtranceOff The Jury

Hold-Up Stays Strongest

15% probability

If the early pace becomes genuinely strong or the leader weakens

Off The Jury's superior stamina comes to the fore as front-runners tire, allowing his patient hold-up tactics to pay dividends. His recent wind operations prove no hindrance as he stays on powerfully past tiring leaders.

Off The JuryCaughtinyourtranceHostile Hotelier

Hostile Falls Again

10% probability

If Hostile Hotelier fails to handle fences under pressure as before

The prominent challenger makes crucial jumping errors when asked to quicken, leaving a straight fight between leader and hold-up horse. Caughtinyourtrance's superior jumping rhythm sees off Off The Jury's late challenge.

CaughtinyourtranceOff The Jury

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Hostile Hotelier's jumping technique under pressure - his 0-6 chase record suggests fundamental issues when asked to quicken

WATCH

Off The Jury's jumping fluency early - any signs of laboured breathing could indicate wind operations haven't fully resolved issues

NOTE

Caughtinyourtrance's stamina reserves in final half-mile - quick return from Saturday's 3m1f defeat may tell late

WATCH

Early pace development - if Hostile Hotelier or Off The Jury show more early speed than expected, it undermines the control scenario

NOTE

Charlotte Jones' front-running tactics on Caughtinyourtrance - any deviation from aggressive leading style would signal stamina concerns

8:38 — JJ Crossfield's Sundowner Handicap Chase

2m1½f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Clean Getaway likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Starman and Beat The Edge led; the map had Clean Getaway in front.

Zumbi won at 2.88 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Clean Getaway

Prominent · 2

ZumbiBeat The Edge

Midfield · 2

StarmanProspect House

Hold Up · 2

GhashamCuzco Du Mathan

Clean Getaway will lead with Zumbi tracking prominently, setting a measured gallop that shouldn't stretch the field early. The majority hold-up horses (Ghasham, Prospect House, Cuzco Du Mathan, Starman) will be content to settle behind this moderate tempo. With no genuine speed horse to inject pressure, the pace will be sustainable throughout the 2m1½f trip. This tactical setup strongly favours the hold-up horses who can produce their finishing kicks from off the steady pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If the early pace remains moderate as expected with Clean Getaway leading uncontested.

The patient hold-up brigade will have too much finishing speed for the prominent runners over this trip. Ghasham and Prospect House particularly benefit from being able to unleash their kicks from the back.

GhashamProspect HouseCuzco Du MathanStarman

Prominent Pair Fight Back

20% probability

If Zumbi and Clean Getaway increase the tempo mid-race to blunt the closers.

The two prominent runners use their tactical positioning to dictate terms and make it a staying test. Their earlier positioning gives them the edge when the hold-up horses come hunting.

ZumbiClean GetawayBeat The EdgeProspect House

Local Specialist Strikes

10% probability

If Cuzco Du Mathan overcomes his moderate recent form to reproduce his Cartmel brilliance.

The triple Cartmel winner uses his intimate course knowledge to find the perfect route through. His proven ability at this unique track trumps current form concerns.

Cuzco Du MathanStarmanGhashamProspect House

Pace Collapse Surprise

5% probability

If the early leaders go too slowly and create a messy sprint finish.

The moderate pace becomes almost pedestrian, leading to a chaotic bunched finish where any horse can win. The superior class horses struggle in the scramble.

Beat The EdgeStarmanClean GetawayZumbi

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Clean Getaway setting too slow a pace early - if he crawls the field home it creates chaos

WATCH

Prospect House fitness after 162-day layoff - any signs of rustiness will end his chances quickly

WATCH

Zumbi handling the quick turnaround from Saturday's narrow defeat in testing conditions

NOTE

Ghasham jumping on chase debut - any novicey errors will cost him in a tight finish

NOTE

Cuzco Du Mathan early positioning - needs to be closer than usual given his poor recent form

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 27 May 2026.

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