Archive›Chepstow · 11 April 2026

Chepstow

11 April 2026 · 7 races

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12:35 — Tiptop Thunder Throne / EBF Junior 'National Hunt' Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m · Soft · CLS4 · 7 runners

Lead contested: Planters Punch v Guts And GloryFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Planters Punch led, as the map showed.

Planters Punch won at 1.44 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Planters PunchGuts And Glory

Prominent · 2

WhitlettsMistral St Georges

Midfield · 1

Longmoor

Hold Up · 2

Look Don't StareEvening Tess

Planters Punch and Guts And Glory will engage early as natural front runners, with Planters Punch the more reliable pace-setter given his consecutive wins leading throughout. The strong gallop they set should stretch the field on good to soft ground over 2 miles at Chepstow's testing track. Mistral St Georges and Whitletts can track prominently behind the leaders while hold-up horses Evening Tess and Look Don't Stare face a tactical disadvantage. This shape clearly favours prominent runners who can stay close to the pace without getting embroiled in the early battle.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Leaders Serve It Up

45% probability

If Planters Punch and Guts And Glory clash heads early and maintain a strong gallop throughout

The sustained pace will expose stamina limitations and favour those tracking just behind the early battle. Prominent runners like Mistral St Georges get the perfect tow into contention.

Mistral St GeorgesWhitlettsLongmoorPlanters Punch

Henderson Horse Dominates

30% probability

If Planters Punch breaks clear early and dictates terms without serious early pressure

The class horse gets an uncontested lead and proves too strong, replicating his recent front-running victories. Guts And Glory tracks in second but cannot match the winner's acceleration.

Planters PunchGuts And GloryMistral St GeorgesWhitletts

Pace Collapses Late

15% probability

If both leaders tire dramatically in the final quarter-mile after their early duel

Hold-up horses get their chance as the early pace takes its toll on front runners. Evening Tess benefits from Dan Skelton's tactical riding and her proven soft ground form.

Evening TessLook Don't StareLongmoorMistral St Georges

Longmoor Surprise Package

10% probability

If the lightly-raced Tizzard runner produces significant improvement from his debut third

Longmoor's inexperience becomes an asset as he travels strongly while others commit too early. His upwardly mobile profile catches seasoned rivals at their most vulnerable.

LongmoorMistral St GeorgesEvening TessWhitletts

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Look Don't Stare has faded badly in recent finishes and faces another tactical disadvantage from her hold-up style

WATCH

Planters Punch carries favourite's pressure with inexperienced apprentice jockey potentially struggling under pressure

NOTE

Longmoor represents the strongest trainer form with Joe Tizzard running at 18% strike-rate versus rivals' struggling yards

WATCH

Both Harriet Dickin runners Look Don't Stare and Whitletts come from a stable completely out of form

NOTE

Evening Tess is the only proven soft ground winner in the field with genuine hold-up tactical speed

1:05 — Tiptop Duel Flush Mares' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m · Soft · NOV · 9 runners

Elated to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Tenter Le Tout won at 1.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Elated

Prominent · 3

Tenter Le ToutNowherenearmilanBurning Embers

Midfield · 2

Ciao BellisimaFootage Detectives

Hold Up · 3

Lakeview LassMolten SeaJollie Dame

Elated will dictate terms from the front with no obvious pace pressure in this small field of nine. Tenter Le Tout and Nowherenearmilan may track prominently but neither appears keen to force the issue early, while the majority including Molten Sea, Jollie Dame and Lakeview Lass will settle further back. This setup creates a controlled tempo that builds gradually, with the real racing beginning from the second-last flight. The lack of genuine pace pressure clearly favours hold-up horses who can produce late momentum over those needing to race handily.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Pace Suits Closers

55% probability

If Elated sets uncontested fractions and the field remains bunched turning in

The patient hold-up horses get perfect conditions to unleash finishing kicks, while prominent racers find themselves outpaced by superior closers. Molten Sea and Jollie Dame benefit most from their tactical positioning.

Molten SeaJollie DameTenter Le ToutLakeview Lass

Prominent Duo Apply Pressure

25% probability

If Tenter Le Tout and Nowherenearmilan push forward to challenge Elated before the straight

The increased pace stretches the field and favours horses with tactical speed who can position close enough to strike. Those settled too far back struggle to make up ground on the testing going.

Tenter Le ToutMolten SeaJollie DameNowherenearmilan

Elated Wires Field

12% probability

If the leader maintains her rhythm and kicks clear approaching the last flight

The lack of serious pace pressure allows Elated to conserve energy for a sustained drive, with only those tracking closest able to respond. Late closers find themselves with too much ground to make up.

ElatedTenter Le ToutMolten SeaJollie Dame

Pace Collapses Late

8% probability

If the moderate early gallop results in a messy sprint finish from the last hurdle

The race becomes a lottery as tired horses battle up the hill, potentially suiting those with recent race fitness over higher-rated but rusty rivals.

Jollie DameNowherenearmilanBurning EmbersMolten Sea

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Elated's 79-day absence could leave her short of peak fitness when challenged in the straight

WATCH

Tenter Le Tout's willingness to press forward early will determine whether this becomes truly run or remains tactical

NOTE

Molten Sea's 5-pound apprentice allowance effectively negates her penalty and makes her well-handicapped

WATCH

Lakeview Lass has faded in both recent soft ground efforts despite getting prominent positions

NOTE

Jollie Dame's 11-day turnaround gives her a fitness edge over several rivals returning from longer breaks

1:40 — Tiptop Riders Restroom Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m · Soft · HCAP · 6 runners

Lead contested: Ostend v Pep TalkingHISTORIC

How it ran

Pep Talking led, as the map showed.

Pep Talking won at 3.50 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

OstendPep Talking

Prominent · 2

KoapeyWhatyouwaitingfor

Midfield · 1

Dj Pete

Hold Up · 1

Ballybreeze

Ostend and Pep Talking will clash from the gates, with both natural leaders unlikely to settle behind others. Ostend has shown recent willingness to lead while Pep Talking's form suggests he needs to bowl along in front to be effective. This dual-speed contest will create an honest tempo throughout, potentially setting up the race for those tracking just behind. The prominent runners like Koapey and Whatyouwaitingfor are perfectly positioned to benefit from this pace scenario, sitting close enough to strike but avoiding the early burn.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runners Clash Hard

45% probability

If Ostend and Pep Talking engage in a serious early battle through the first mile.

Both leaders will compromise each other's finishing kick, creating perfect conditions for the prominent trackers to sweep past in the final furlong. Koapey and Whatyouwaitingfor can time their challenges perfectly from their stalking positions.

KoapeyWhatyouwaitingforBallybreezeDj Pete

One Leader Dominates

30% probability

If either Ostend or Pep Talking secures an uncontested lead while the other settles.

The free-running leader will dictate terms and prove hard to catch, especially with both showing recent form suggesting they can stay strongly when getting their own way. The prominent runners will struggle to bridge a significant gap.

OstendPep TalkingKoapeyBallybreeze

Hold-Up Horses Benefit

15% probability

If the early pace becomes genuinely fast with multiple horses pressing forward.

Ballybreeze's patient hold-up style becomes an asset as the pace collapses in the straight, allowing him to pick off tired leaders. His strong similar going record suggests he can handle these conditions when getting the right race shape.

BallybreezeDj PeteKoapeyWhatyouwaitingfor

Messy Pace Develops

10% probability

If both leaders hesitate or other horses unexpectedly press forward early.

The race becomes tactical and scrappy, suiting horses with tactical speed who can quicken from any position. This unpredictable scenario opens up opportunities for the most adaptable runners.

Dj PeteKoapeyWhatyouwaitingforPep Talking

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Ostend's 45-day absence could leave him vulnerable to sharper rivals despite his natural early speed advantage.

WATCH

Pep Talking's headgear application suggests recent issues, monitor market confidence and early settling behavior.

WATCH

Charlie Longsdon's poor 14-day strike rate (0/15) raises questions about Whatyouwaitingfor's immediate readiness despite solid form.

NOTE

Tom Broughton's 5lb claim on Ostend indicates the handicapper may have found this mark challenging for the selection.

NOTE

Ballybreeze needs the early pace to be genuinely strong to bring his hold-up style into play effectively.

2:15 — Tiptop Clean Convenience Handicap Hurdle

2m · Soft · HCAP · 9 runners

The Kemble Brewery likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Cornish Storm led; the map had The Kemble Brewery in front.

Cosmic Connection won at 3.75 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

The Kemble Brewery

Prominent · 3

AuthodidacteCosmic ConnectionCeltic Art

Midfield · 3

In The AirCornish StormLacrima

Hold Up · 2

Doctors HillZambezi Fix

The Kemble Brewery will likely take them along at a steady gallop with Cosmic Connection, Authodidacte and Celtic Art all content to race prominently behind the leader. With only one confirmed front runner and several prominent racers, this will develop into a moderate pace that shouldn't suit the pure hold-up horses like Doctors Hill and Zambezi Fix who prefer stronger gallops. The lack of pace pressure early means the prominent racers and those able to travel just off the speed will have every chance to quicken when it matters. This race shape clearly favours prominent runners and those with tactical pace over pure hold-up horses.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

45% probability

If The Kemble Brewery sets a steady pace without pressure from behind

The moderate gallop allows prominent racers to conserve energy and time their challenges perfectly from ideal positions. Cosmic Connection, Authodidacte and Celtic Art all benefit from being able to track the pace and strike at the right moment.

Cosmic ConnectionAuthodidacteCeltic ArtIn The Air

Late Surge Succeeds

25% probability

If the early pace becomes even more sedate than expected

The crawling pace negates the prominent racers' positional advantage and allows Doctors Hill to unleash his strong finishing kick from the rear. Zambezi Fix could also benefit from the slower tempo despite his advancing years.

Doctors HillIn The AirZambezi FixCosmic Connection

Front Runner Wires Field

20% probability

If The Kemble Brewery gets an uncontested lead and none of the prominent runners pressure early

The lack of early pressure allows the leader to dictate terms completely and prove hard to peg back up the hill. Lacrima could also benefit if allowed to creep into contention without being asked serious questions.

The Kemble BreweryLacrimaAuthodidacteCosmic Connection

Pace Collapse Benefits Outsider

10% probability

If the tempo becomes overly tactical and the field bunches entering the straight

The stop-start nature creates a sprint finish that could suit Cornish Storm's recent good form or allow Zambezi Fix's light weight to tell. Celtic Art's experience in these conditions becomes crucial.

Cornish StormCeltic ArtZambezi FixLacrima

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

The Kemble Brewery's fitness after 157 days off could see the front runner weaken dramatically in the final half-mile

WATCH

Doctors Hill and Zambezi Fix need a genuine strong pace to be competitive but may struggle if tempo stays moderate

NOTE

Cosmic Connection's prominent style and current form make him ideally suited if positioned tracking the leader early

WATCH

Authodidacte's perfect recent record suggests peak form but the 123-day break needs to be overlooked

NOTE

Celtic Art's recent inconsistency contrasts with his proven ability on soft ground at this distance

2:50 — Tiptop Lavish Latrine Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m7½f · Soft · HCAP · 8 runners

Happy And Fine likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

The Newest One led; the map had Happy And Fine in front.

The Boola Boss won at 2.88 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Happy And Fine

Prominent · 2

Sizable SamBuckna

Midfield · 3

The Newest OneThe Boola BossCamulus

Hold Up · 2

Gris MajeurChoice Runner

Happy And Fine will take them along as the confirmed front runner, likely setting a steady gallop over this extended 2m7½f trip on testing ground. With most runners holding prominent positions rather than true hold-up styles, the pace should be honest but not overly fierce early. The Boola Boss, Buckna, and Sizable Sam will track close behind, with only Gris Majeur and Choice Runner truly held up. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can track the pace and kick - the lack of pace pressure means those sitting handy will have first run on the limited hold-up horses.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Tracker Dominance

55% probability

If Happy And Fine sets sustainable fractions without serious pressure

The prominent horses get ideal positioning to strike turning in, while the two hold-up horses have too much to do from the back. Form horses like The Boola Boss and in-form Buckna benefit most from this tactical setup.

The Boola BossBucknaSizable SamCamulus

Front Runner Wire-to-Wire

25% probability

If Happy And Fine gets soft sectionals and kicks clear approaching the last

The lack of early pace pressure allows the leader to conserve energy for a decisive move, with prominent trackers unable to respond quickly enough. Happy And Fine's recent course form and tactical advantage prove decisive.

Happy And FineThe Newest OneThe Boola BossBuckna

Hold-Up Horse Late Surge

12% probability

If the pace becomes truly crawling and Gris Majeur gets a perfect ride from Houlihan

The slow gallop sets up perfectly for the two hold-up runners to unleash devastating finishes from the rear. Gris Majeur's superior recent form on good ground gives him the edge over Choice Runner.

Gris MajeurChoice RunnerHappy And FineThe Boola Boss

Camulus Class Emergence

8% probability

If Camulus overcomes his 56-day absence and Venetia Williams' poor strike rate

The hat-trick seeker's superior chase form shines through despite fitness concerns, with Charlie Deutsch getting him into contention from a prominent position. His three recent wins suggest class above this grade.

CamulusThe Boola BossBucknaThe Newest One

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Happy And Fine could steal this if allowed to dictate soft fractions without early pressure from the prominent pack

WATCH

Gris Majeur needs close monitoring - if the pace is truly steady he becomes a major threat from the rear

NOTE

The Boola Boss carries strong recent form and gets weight relief, making him dangerous if tracking the leaders well

WATCH

Buckna's fitness after 44 days off Warren Greatrex's yard needs careful assessment in the preliminaries

NOTE

Camulus requires watching for signs of readiness after nearly two months off following his winning streak

3:32 — Tiptop Sensational Shower Mares' Handicap Hurdle

2m7½f · Soft · HCAP · 6 runners

Presenting Doy likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Katie's Melody and I Am The Moon led; the map had Presenting Doy in front.

Harmony Heights won at 4.60 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Presenting Doy

Prominent · 1

I Am The Moon

Midfield · 3

Katie's MelodyLove MeBenignitas

Hold Up · 1

Harmony Heights

Presenting Doy will take the field along at a steady gallop with no natural pace pressers in this small field. I Am The Moon, Love Me, Katie's Melody and Benignitas will all track prominently but none are aggressive early types. Harmony Heights as the sole hold-up horse will be anchored at the back giving her ground to make up. This moderate tempo over an extended trip strongly favours prominent racers who can position handily and kick when the pace lifts, with hold-up horses facing a significant tactical disadvantage.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Racers Dominate

65% probability

If the moderate early pace allows prominent horses to travel comfortably into contention

I Am The Moon and Love Me can position perfectly behind Presenting Doy and have more tactical speed than the leader when the race develops. Their prominent styles are perfectly suited to this race shape with no early pressure to disrupt their rhythm.

I Am The MoonLove MeKatie's MelodyPresenting Doy

Leader Gets Easy Time

20% probability

If Presenting Doy gets uncontested fractions and the field allows her too much rope

The lack of pace pressure lets Presenting Doy dictate terms completely and she proves hard to peg back despite her ordinary recent form. Her superior rating starts to tell when others can't match her sustained gallop.

Presenting DoyI Am The MoonLove MeKatie's Melody

Hold-Up Horse Overcomes

10% probability

If the pace collapses completely in the final half-mile and becomes a sprint

Harmony Heights gets the collapse in pace that her running style desperately needs in this tactical setup. Her superior finishing kick under these circumstances could overcome the positional disadvantage if others stop quickly.

Harmony HeightsLove MeI Am The MoonKatie's Melody

Outsider Benefits From Chaos

5% probability

If the race becomes messy with multiple fallers or significant interference at hurdles

Benignitas or Katie's Melody could benefit from race-changing incidents that disrupt the favourites' chances. The extended trip helps their chances if the race becomes a war of attrition late on.

Katie's MelodyBenignitasLove MeHarmony Heights

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Harmony Heights could be virtually out of contention turning for home if the pace doesn't collapse as expected

WATCH

I Am The Moon has fallen twice this season so jumping execution critical to chances despite ideal race setup

WATCH

Love Me carries headgear changes suggesting recent behavioural issues that could resurface under pressure

NOTE

Presenting Doy's 53-day absence could tell late if others sustain their challenge better than expected

NOTE

Katie's Melody needs to overcome poor recent trainer form despite her own decent individual efforts

4:40 — Tiptop Portable Event Handicap Hurdle

2m3½f · Soft · HCAP · 14 runners

Inion Tiogair to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Raindance Queen led; the map had Inion Tiogair in front.

Inion Tiogair won at 5.50 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Inion Tiogair

Prominent · 2

HillwalkPeace In The Park

Midfield · 7

Triple HaychRapid MissionGolly GoshSaint VicIfan Full PeltRaindance QueenD'Gesteevo

Hold Up · 4

ThorgathShan't WaitBushstreet BowmanSophie Power

Inion Tiogair will lead from the start with no other confirmed front-runners to challenge her early, setting a controlled rhythm over the first mile. Hillwalk and Peace In The Park should track prominently in second and third, but neither will pressure the leader significantly in the early stages. The large field of hold-up horses will settle behind this modest gallop, creating a bunched field approaching the final half-mile where the real racing begins. This shape strongly favours prominent runners who can position close enough to strike when the pace lifts, as the hold-up brigade will face a traffic nightmare in a 14-runner field on soft ground.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Tracker Strikes

45% probability

If Hillwalk or Peace In The Park can track Inion Tiogair within 3-4 lengths turning for home

The moderate early pace suits these prominent runners perfectly, allowing them to conserve energy before unleashing their finishing kick. With most rivals needing gaps from the back, the well-positioned prominent horses avoid the inevitable traffic problems.

HillwalkPeace In The ParkInion TiogairThorgath

Leader Stays Strong

30% probability

If Inion Tiogair maintains her advantage turning in and the chasing pack fails to close decisively

Her excellent soft ground record (2 wins from 15 starts) and lack of early pressure allows her to dictate terms throughout. The hold-up horses struggle to make up ground on the testing surface, leaving the leader to battle home.

Inion TiogairSophie PowerHillwalkPeace In The Park

Late Traffic Jam

15% probability

If the large field bunches turning for home with multiple hold-up horses needing room simultaneously

The 14-runner field creates a cavalry charge scenario where positioning becomes crucial and several fancied runners get shut out. Those already handy or finding clear runs on the outside benefit from others' misfortune.

Peace In The ParkRapid MissionShan't WaitTriple Haych

Class Hold-Up Horse

10% probability

If Thorgath or Shan't Wait get clear runs and the pace collapses completely in the final furlong

Despite the tactical disadvantage, superior class tells when gaps appear and the soft ground becomes a stamina test. These higher-rated horses have the engine to make up significant ground if circumstances align.

ThorgathShan't WaitSophie PowerInion Tiogair

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Inion Tiogair could get an uncontested lead and prove impossible to peg back if no prominent runner challenges early enough

WATCH

Traffic problems will be severe turning for home with 13+ runners bunching - multiple hold-up horses will get completely shut out of contention

WATCH

Bushstreet Bowman and D'Gesteevo both carry fading warnings and may weaken quickly when the pace intensifies

NOTE

Hillwalk has been absent 68 days but trainer Neil Mulholland's 4 from 27 recent record suggests this one is ready

NOTE

Several claimer riders including Daire McConville and Harry Atkins may struggle with tactical positioning in such a large competitive field

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 11 April 2026.

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