Archive›Chepstow · 15 June 2026

Chepstow

15 June 2026 · 8 races

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1:50 — BJ Llewellyn Racing In Memory Of Gwilym Llewellyn Amateur Jockeys' Handicap (Div I)

1m2f · Soft · HCAP · 11 runners

No obvious leaderFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Knightmare and Louie The Legend led.

Pride Of Nepal won at 3.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 0

None

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 8

ShowmedemoneyAlazwarTiger BeetleOlivia JaneKnightmareSummer EveningThe PugPomeriggio

Hold Up · 3

Pride Of NepalLouie The LegendVoix De Bocelli

With no confirmed front runner in this 11-horse field, the early pace will likely be contested by Pride Of Nepal and Knightmare if they break well, though both prefer hold-up tactics which creates uncertainty. The lack of natural pace-setters means the field will bunch together through the early stages, with horses like Louie The Legend and Showmedemoney potentially being niggled along to avoid getting too far back. This sets up a messy, stop-start gallop that will inevitably collapse into a sprint finish over the final 2-3 furlongs. This race shape strongly favours horses with tactical speed and finishing kicks over pure stamina types, benefiting those that can quicken from midfield positions.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Bunched Sprint Finish

55% probability

If the early pace proves genuinely slow with no horse willing to make the running.

The field stays tightly packed until the home turn before exploding into a cavalry charge finish. Horses with tactical speed and recent race fitness will have crucial advantages in the final 200 yards.

Pride Of NepalKnightmareShowmedemoneyLouie The Legend

Moderate Pace Sustained

25% probability

If Pride Of Nepal or Showmedemoney take up the running and maintain steady fractions.

A more conventional race unfolds with even pace throughout, allowing hold-up horses to time their challenges. The winner emerges from those best suited to the soft ground conditions.

ShowmedemoneyVoix De BocelliTiger BeetlePride Of Nepal

Early Scramble Collapses

12% probability

If multiple horses dispute the early lead before the pace falls apart completely.

An unsustainable early battle leaves the leaders vulnerable, creating gaps for late closers. Fresh horses returning from breaks could capitalize on the tactical chaos.

Summer EveningAlazwarOlivia JaneThe Pug

Wire-to-Wire Surprise

8% probability

If an outsider like Tiger Beetle or The Pug makes all the running unexpectedly.

The field fails to organize an effective pursuit of a shock leader who steals crucial lengths. Only horses with genuine finishing speed can reel in the surprise pacesetter.

Tiger BeetleThe PugPride Of NepalKnightmare

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Pomeriggio has a specific weakness of fading in the finish which could be costly in a sprint finale

WATCH

Louie The Legend's 53-day break combined with amateur jockey Fletcher Yarham could prove problematic

NOTE

Pride Of Nepal's recent course and distance wins make him the form horse if handling the tactical scenario

WATCH

Olivia Jane's 305-day absence is extreme even by comeback standards and she could need the run badly

NOTE

Watch for Showmedemoney to be pushed forward early as the most likely horse to ensure a proper gallop

2:20 — BJ Llewellyn Racing In Memory Of Gwilym Llewellyn Amateur Jockeys' Handicap (Div II)

1m2f · Soft · HCAP · 11 runners

Man Is King likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Man Is King led, as the map showed.

Palazzo Persico won at 8.50.

7 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Man Is King

Prominent · 2

ArtavianOffiah's Boy

Midfield · 5

Little SheChange Of FortuneIgnitionResilient LadyBloodhound

Hold Up · 3

San Francisco BayThursdayPalazzo Persico

Man Is King and Artavian will set the early tempo as the only genuine pace-setters in this field, with Man Is King likely to dictate from the front given his confirmed leading tendencies. The moderate early gallop will allow the large pack of hold-up horses including San Francisco Bay, Little She, and Change Of Fortune to stay in touch before launching their challenges. With 8 of 11 runners employing hold-up tactics, the race sets up perfectly for patient types who can quicken late. This pace dynamic strongly favours hold-up horses who can produce a finishing kick over the final two furlongs.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If Man Is King sets sustainable fractions without pressure from Artavian

The large pack of closers get the perfect setup to unleash their finishing kicks simultaneously in the straight. Patient riders on horses like San Francisco Bay, Little She, and Change Of Fortune can time their runs to perfection when the pace collapses.

San Francisco BayLittle SheChange Of FortuneThursday

Front Two Steal March

20% probability

If Man Is King and Artavian open up clear daylight turning for home

The pace-setters get first run on their rivals and the hold-up brigade leave themselves too much to do. Man Is King's recent winning form and Artavian's improved efforts on similar ground give them the edge when they get loose.

Man Is KingArtavianOffiah's BoyLittle She

Midfield Swoop Succeeds

10% probability

If the prominent runners like Offiah's Boy track the leaders perfectly

The horses positioned just behind the pace avoid the traffic problems of the hold-up horses while staying close enough to strike. Offiah's Boy returns from a break in good heart while avoiding the tactical nightmare further back.

Offiah's BoyMan Is KingArtavianSan Francisco Bay

Complete Pace Collapse

5% probability

If both Man Is King and Artavian go too slow early and stop completely

The race becomes a pure sprint finish where the freshest horse wins regardless of position. This suits a horse like Thursday who hasn't been seen for 35 days and could surprise at big odds.

ThursdayIgnitionChange Of FortuneLittle She

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Man Is King could get uncontested lead if Artavian doesn't press early pace

WATCH

San Francisco Bay needs clear running room given hold-up style and amateur jockey Henry Main

NOTE

Change Of Fortune represents Bernard Llewellyn stable hitting form with 2 recent winners

WATCH

Artavian returning from 48-day break for Patrick Chamings who has 0 winners from 7 recent runners

NOTE

Thursday could outrun odds if Simon Dow's recent good form continues after 35-day freshen-up

2:55 — Susan Wastie Memorial / EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB/IRE Incentive Race)

6f · Soft · NOV · 8 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

3:30 — Tom Malone Bloodstock Supports Jamie's Farm Handicap

5f · Soft · HCAP · 7 runners

Connie's Rose likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Sonic Si and Connie's Rose led, as the map showed.

Sonic Si won at 2.62 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Connie's Rose

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 4

Savannah SmilesSonic SiFletcher's FlightSome Nightmare

Hold Up · 2

MoostarLevel Up

Connie's Rose will lead from the front with no other natural pace-setters in this small field, creating an uncontested lead through moderate fractions on the testing ground. The six hold-up horses will track behind in a compact group, setting up a sprint finish from the 2f pole as they all try to time their challenges. Fletcher's Flight, Sonic Si and Level Up have shown the best recent 5f form and will look to quicken late. This pace scenario strongly favours the closers who can produce a sustained finish, as the lone leader will be vulnerable to multiple challengers in the final furlong.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Multiple Closer Finish

55% probability

If Connie's Rose sets steady fractions and fades in the final furlong.

The hold-up horses will have plenty left for a final surge, with Fletcher's Flight and Sonic Si best placed to capitalize on their recent 5f wins. The uncontested pace plays perfectly into the hands of those with late tactical speed.

Fletcher's FlightSonic SiLevel UpMoostar

Front Runner Holds On

25% probability

If Connie's Rose kicks clear at the 2f pole before the closers can respond.

Her 7f background gives stamina reserves that could see off late challenges on this testing ground. The soft conditions may just blunt the finishing kicks of the hold-up brigade.

Connie's RoseFletcher's FlightSonic SiLevel Up

Prominent Tactical Move

12% probability

If one of the hold-up horses positions closer to the pace and kicks early.

Level Up or Moostar could track Connie's Rose more closely and steal a march with a 3f move. This tactical switch would give them first run on their rivals who are held up further back.

Level UpMoostarFletcher's FlightSonic Si

Pace Collapse Finish

8% probability

If Connie's Rose goes too slow early and creates a messy sprint finish.

The race becomes a lottery with all seven runners in contention turning for home, favouring the most naturally quick finishers. Some Nightmare's light weight could prove decisive in a blanket finish.

Some NightmareSavannah SmilesFletcher's FlightLevel Up

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Fletcher's Flight and Sonic Si both won last time at 5f and will be prominent in betting with strong recent form

WATCH

Connie's Rose must be watched for early pace - if she goes too steady the race becomes a sprint lottery

WATCH

Level Up with 7lb claimer McDonnell could be overbet given the booking, but has solid form credentials

NOTE

Some Nightmare's light weight of 120lbs gives her a significant pull with rivals if producing career-best effort

NOTE

Grace Harris saddles two runners with contrasting chances - Connie's Rose leads throughout while Savannah Smiles needs pace to aim at

4:03 — Menzies Recovery Handicap (Chepstow Mile Series Qualifier)

7f · Soft · HCAP · 9 runners

Hint Of The Jungle likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Hint Of The Jungle and Future Cutlet led, as the map showed.

Hint Of The Jungle won at 3.25 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Hint Of The Jungle

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 5

Future CutletSioux WarriorHavanitaRavenglassBelltony

Hold Up · 3

The OrganiserMoonhall LassTerries Royale

Hint Of The Jungle will likely lead uncontested given he's the only confirmed front runner in this field of predominantly hold-up horses. With eight hold-up performers behind him, Hint Of The Jungle can dictate terms and set a sustainable gallop without early pressure. The lack of pace angles means the tempo will be genuine but not frantic, with horses like The Organiser and Moonhall Lass tracking in behind before the field concertinas in the straight. This race shape strongly favours the pace-setter and any prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will arise when eight hold-up horses look for racing room simultaneously.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

45% probability

If Hint Of The Jungle gets an easy lead and kicks clear turning for home

The prominent runner faces no early pressure and has first run on the field when the serious racing begins. Hold-up horses struggle to bridge the gap as they get in each other's way.

Hint Of The JungleThe OrganiserTerries RoyaleFuture Cutlet

Late Traffic Chaos

30% probability

If the field bunches up in the straight creating a cavalry charge finish

Multiple hold-up horses get hampered and only those with clear runs can showcase their ability. The pace-setter gets swamped by sheer weight of numbers.

Sioux WarriorRavenglassMoonhall LassBelltony

Leader Fades Under Pressure

15% probability

If Hint Of The Jungle sets too strong a pace or gets headed early in the straight

The front runner empties out after dictating terms, leaving the door open for closers with tactical speed. Those who can quicken off the bridle gain crucial advantages.

Future CutletTerries RoyaleThe OrganiserHavanita

Slow Pace Sprint

10% probability

If Hint Of The Jungle crawls in front and it becomes a dash from the furlong pole

The race turns into a pure speed test where early position matters less than raw acceleration. Horses with natural pace rather than stamina come to the fore.

Moonhall LassSioux WarriorHint Of The JungleBelltony

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Hint Of The Jungle's early fractions - if he goes too fast early he'll set this up perfectly for closers

WATCH

Traffic problems in the straight with eight hold-up horses converging simultaneously from off the pace

NOTE

The Organiser and Moonhall Lass getting competitive positions early given their higher class ratings

WATCH

Belltony's fitness after 91-day absence despite being the only recent winner in the field

NOTE

How aggressively the hold-up horses are ridden given the likely lack of early pace

4:33 — Engstaff-In Birthday Handicap

6f · Soft · HCAP · 7 runners

Too Much Trevor likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Punchbowl Flyer led; the map had Too Much Trevor in front.

Punchbowl Flyer won at 2.88 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Too Much Trevor

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 4

WhitesnakePoetBlue Point ExpressBama Lama

Hold Up · 2

Punchbowl FlyerAutumn Angel

Too Much Trevor will lead uncontested from the gates, setting a controlled gallop that suits his prominent style perfectly. With five hold-up horses (Punchbowl Flyer, Autumn Angel, Blue Point Express, Bama Lama, Poet) all needing to come from behind and only Whitesnake showing uncertain style, the pace will be pedestrian early. This sustainable tempo allows Too Much Trevor to dictate terms while the pack bunches behind him entering the final two furlongs. This race shape strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will engulf the hold-up brigade.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Runner Wins

55% probability

If Too Much Trevor gets an easy lead without early pressure

Too Much Trevor controls the race at his own tempo and has enough left to resist late challengers. The hold-up horses get trapped behind the wall of runners and cannot mount effective challenges.

Too Much TrevorWhitesnakeAutumn AngelPunchbowl Flyer

Late Charge Succeeds

25% probability

If the pace becomes genuinely slow and hold-up horses get clear runs

The pedestrian gallop sets up perfectly for closers who can unleash devastating finishes. Autumn Angel and Punchbowl Flyer benefit most from their higher ratings in this scenario.

Autumn AngelPunchbowl FlyerToo Much TrevorBlue Point Express

Traffic Chaos Benefits Tracker

12% probability

If the hold-up horses encounter severe interference in the straight

Whitesnake tracks the pace from a handy position and benefits when the field bunches and creates problems for closers. His uncertain style actually helps him avoid the worst traffic.

WhitesnakeToo Much TrevorAutumn AngelBama Lama

Outsider Finds Gaps

8% probability

If Blue Point Express or Bama Lama find dream runs through the field

The long absence works in favour of these unconsidered runners who slip through when others get stopped. Their hold-up styles pay off with perfect timing and clear passages.

Blue Point ExpressBama LamaWhitesnakePoet

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Poet fades badly in the finish as his known weakness for not staying trips combines with wrong running style

WATCH

Too Much Trevor gets uncontested lead through first two furlongs as no other horse challenges his position

NOTE

Punchbowl Flyer and Autumn Angel get trapped behind wall of horses entering final furlong despite their class advantage

WATCH

Whitesnake tracks prominently rather than dropping back, suggesting connections have changed tactics for this race setup

NOTE

Blue Point Express and Bama Lama struggle to make up ground from rear positions due to lack of early pace

5:05 — opx.io Operating System For Continuous Improvement Handicap (Chepstow Mile Series Qual') (Div I)

1m · Soft · HCAP · 11 runners

Ajrad likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Bobby Dassler won at 13.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Ajrad

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 7

Bobby DasslerZambezi DiamondScenarioLhebayebDinah MyteBaynoonaJudge Frank

Hold Up · 3

Sub ThirteenRedhot WhisperMiss Chester

Ajrad is the sole prominent runner in a field of 10 hold-up horses, giving him an uncontested lead over 1m at Chepstow. With no pace pressure whatsoever, Ajrad can dictate comfortable fractions and potentially steal a march on the field. The massive pack of hold-up horses will need to time their runs perfectly from off the pace, but the lack of early speed creates a tactical nightmare for the closers. This race shape strongly favours the lone front-runner Ajrad and any horse capable of tracking him closely early.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Ajrad Gets Away

50% probability

If Ajrad gets soft fractions and kicks clear turning for home.

The veteran can control the pace completely and use his tactical advantage to maximum effect. The wall of hold-up horses gets caught flat-footed by his move.

AjradScenarioBobby DasslerSub Thirteen

Late Cavalry Charge

25% probability

If multiple closers get organised and time their runs together.

Dinah Myte and Bobby Dassler lead a coordinated assault that reels in the front-runner. The superior class of the hold-up horses eventually tells.

Dinah MyteBobby DasslerScenarioRedhot Whisper

Prominent Tracker Wins

15% probability

If one horse breaks from the pack to track Ajrad early.

Scenario or Sub Thirteen sits closer than usual and outfinishes the tiring leader. They get the best of both worlds with a perfect stalking trip.

ScenarioSub ThirteenAjradZambezi Diamond

Chaos Sprint Finish

10% probability

If Ajrad folds early leaving a messy scramble.

The pace collapses completely leaving all 10 hold-up horses in a bunched sprint finish. Pure stamina and a clear run determines the winner.

Redhot WhisperLhebayebJudge FrankBaynoona

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Ajrad completely alone on the lead - if he gets easy fractions he could steal this

WATCH

Watch for any horse breaking from the pack early to track Ajrad - they get the perfect trip

NOTE

Monitor the pace through the first half mile - if it's crawling the closers are in trouble

WATCH

Check if Scenario or Sub Thirteen sit closer than their usual hold-up style

NOTE

Watch for traffic problems in the straight with 10 horses needing racing room simultaneously

5:35 — opx.io Operating System For Continuous Improvement Handicap (Chepstow Mile Series Qual') (Div II)

1m · Soft · HCAP · 11 runners

Diamondsinthesand likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Rival led; the map had Diamondsinthesand in front.

Desert Charm won at 8.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Diamondsinthesand

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 7

Seconds CountHammalRivalA Rose AdaayScarfoDesert CharmHaaf A Diamond

Hold Up · 3

Racing DemonPraise IndeedHomeland

Diamondsinthesand will be the sole pace-setter, dropping back in class and distance after sprinting efforts, with the rest of this field comprised entirely of hold-up performers. With no pace pressure on the leader, Diamondsinthesand can dictate terms through steady fractions, creating a tactical race where positioning becomes crucial. The lack of early pace means the tempo will be modest, building into a sprint finish where horses with tactical speed and good closing kicks will have the advantage. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers who can track the leader closely and hold-up horses with proven finishing kicks.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

45% probability

If Diamondsinthesand gets soft fractions without early pressure

The veteran can control the pace completely and kick clear when the field closes, making use of the tactical advantage. Hold-up horses will find the pace too slow to wind up their finishing efforts effectively.

DiamondsinthesandScarfoA Rose AdaayHomeland

Late Kick Sprint

35% probability

If the pace stays slow and creates a bunched finish

The modest gallop will suit horses with proven finishing speed who can quicken sharply in the final furlong. Quality closers with good recent form will exploit the tactical nature.

Seconds CountHomelandRacing DemonDesert Charm

Pace Collapses Completely

12% probability

If Diamondsinthesand sets crawling fractions and stops quickly

The race becomes a pure sprint from the two-furlong pole where class and finishing speed matter most. Fresh horses with tactical pace will have a significant edge over those coming from too far back.

ScarfoA Rose AdaayRivalHaaf A Diamond

Early Pressure Emerges

8% probability

If prominent runners move up to challenge Diamondsinthesand early

The pace quickens beyond the leader's comfort zone, creating a more honest gallop that suits genuine stayers. This tempo change will expose the non-stayers and favour horses with proven stamina.

Racing DemonSeconds CountRivalHomeland

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Diamondsinthesand sets the entire pace scenario - if the 9-year-old veteran gets easy fractions, the whole race dynamic changes

WATCH

Early positioning will be crucial with 10 hold-up horses - watch for traffic problems and who gets first run

NOTE

Track any early moves to pressure Diamondsinthesand as this would completely alter the tactical complexion

WATCH

Scarfo carries winning form from this exact course and conditions, making any market support significant

NOTE

Seconds Count and Racing Demon represent the strongest recent form lines, watch their market moves for confidence

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 15 June 2026.

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