2:00 — Racing To School Reaches 25 Years Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)
2m7½f · Soft · CLS4 · 7 runners
Tobyshill to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Tobyshill led, as the map showed.
Tobyshill won at 8.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Tobyshill
Prominent · 3
Royal RocketEquity ReleaseJonny Setaside
Midfield · 2
Seven KitesFairye Forth
Hold Up · 1
Country Park
Tobyshill will lead this small field and set his own fractions without early pressure from the prominent runners Royal Rocket, Jonny Setaside and Equity Release. The lack of genuine pace pressure means the tempo will be steady rather than searching, allowing the field to travel comfortably in behind. Seven Kites and Fairye Forth bring unknown pace angles as lightly raced horses, while Country Park sits as the only confirmed hold-up performer. This setup strongly favours prominent runners and those with tactical speed — the modest early pace will keep the field compact and reward horses that can quicken from handy positions rather than those relying on a strong gallop.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Runners Dominate
45% probability
If the early pace stays modest and the field remains bunched turning for home
The lack of early burn-up allows prominent runners to conserve energy and unleash their finishing kicks from ideal positions. Tobyshill's uncontested lead becomes vulnerable when the fresher, higher-rated horses close from just behind.
Royal RocketEquity ReleaseJonny SetasideSeven Kites
B
Leader Holds On
30% probability
If Tobyshill's recent form boost and headgear change help him sustain his kick when challenged
The modest pace plays into his hands as he faces no early pressure, and his RPR 116 rating gives him competitive claims. Country Park and other hold-up types get caught too far back when the sprint develops.
TobyshillSeven KitesRoyal RocketFairye Forth
C
Hold-up Horse Strikes
15% probability
If the pace quickens significantly mid-race and strings out the field more than expected
Country Park's class advantage (RPR 127) and proven hold-up style allow him to pick off tired leaders despite the tactical setup. His trainer's poor recent form becomes irrelevant if the race falls apart up front.
Country ParkFairye ForthTobyshillEquity Release
D
Lightly Raced Surprise
10% probability
If Seven Kites or Fairye Forth possess hidden ability that their limited exposure hasn't revealed
Their unknown pace styles could include tactical speed that suits this race shape perfectly. Sean Bowen's booking of Fairye Forth despite Rebecca Curtis's poor form suggests stable confidence in a horse returning from a long break.
Seven KitesFairye ForthRoyal RocketJonny Setaside
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Country Park needs the pace to quicken significantly mid-race to bring his hold-up style into play against this tactical setup.
WATCH
Tobyshill's first-time headgear and 18-day turnaround suggest connections expect improvement from his recent third place effort.
NOTE
Seven Kites' single career run provides no tactical blueprint, making his pace approach completely unpredictable in a small field.
WATCH
Equity Release returns from a 131-day break with trainers showing 0/2 recent form, raising questions about his fitness levels.
NOTE
Royal Rocket's prominent style and proven soft ground form make him well-suited to exploit any weakening of Tobyshill's early lead.
Hurricane Pat won at 1.22 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Hurricane Pat
Prominent · 4
Play On CourtMistral St GeorgesAre You JokingGood Girl Rachel
Midfield · 3
One For RianCosmic ConnectionBelow The Belt
Hold Up · 4
Modern StyleCrystal BoxBowling ShaneBoth Of Us
Hurricane Pat stands alone as the clear pace-setter with his prominent/lead style and class edge (OR 142), likely to dictate terms from the front without pressure from fellow front runners. The majority of the field comprises hold-up horses (Cosmic Connection, Crystal Box, Modern Style, Both Of Us, Below The Belt, Bowling Shane) who will need the pace to develop and gaps to appear in the straight. With Good Girl Rachel, Are You Joking, and Play On Court providing some prominent cover behind Hurricane Pat, the race will develop into a typical scenario where the leader sets sustainable fractions before the hold-up brigade launches late challenges. This setup strongly favours hold-up horses — Hurricane Pat may go too fast too early under pressure, and the patient riders will benefit from the guaranteed pace and late tactical opportunities.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-up horses dominate
45% probability
If Hurricane Pat goes too keen early or the pace becomes genuine enough to set up the back markers
The class act Hurricane Pat either burns out or gets swamped by fresher finishers who've conserved energy. Hold-up specialists like Cosmic Connection and Both Of Us can unleash their finishing kicks when it matters.
Cosmic ConnectionBoth Of UsCrystal BoxBowling Shane
B
Hurricane Pat wire-to-wire
35% probability
If Hurricane Pat gets an easy lead and controls the pace on his own terms
The class horse uses his superior rating and Tom Cannon's tactical nous to dictate a steady pace before quickening when ready. The hold-up horses are left with too much to do against a horse in career-best form.
Hurricane PatCosmic ConnectionPlay On CourtBoth Of Us
C
Prominent horses bridge gap
15% probability
If the prominent runners (Good Girl Rachel, Are You Joking, Play On Court) track Hurricane Pat closer than expected
A sustained pace develops with the mid-pack runners getting first run on the tiring leader but holding off the hold-up horses. This creates the perfect scenario for horses who can travel and finish without being too far back.
Play On CourtAre You JokingHurricane PatCosmic Connection
D
Pace collapses completely
5% probability
If Hurricane Pat goes very slowly and the prominent horses fail to apply pressure
The race becomes a sprint finish where tactical speed matters more than stamina, potentially suiting horses with natural pace regardless of their usual running style. This could throw up a surprise result from the lower-rated runners.
Modern StyleBoth Of UsOne For RianGood Girl Rachel
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Hurricane Pat may go too keen if challenged early by the prominent runners, compromising his stamina reserves
WATCH
Both Of Us first-time tongue-tie and Kerry Lee's booking of Tom Cannon suggests serious stable confidence
NOTE
Cosmic Connection has perfect course form and Harry Cobden only rides live chances for Chris Gordon
WATCH
Crystal Box and Below The Belt both have warnings for fading in the finish from their previous runs
NOTE
Neil Mulholland's yard is in good form (4/26) making One For Rian interesting at likely big odds
3:00 — South West Rail Solutions Ltd Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
2m · Soft · HCAP · 5 runners
Supreme George to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Touquet led; the map had Supreme George in front.
Supreme George won at 3.75 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Supreme George
Prominent · 1
Touquet
Midfield · 1
Le Gentleman
Hold Up · 2
Diligent MilitiaBrulure Noire
Supreme George will set a controlled pace from the front with no pressure from other front runners. The prominent Touquet should track him, but three hold-up horses (Le Gentleman, Brulure Noire, Diligent Militia) will settle at the back. With Supreme George allowed to dictate terms uncontested, he can set fractions that suit his stamina and kick when he chooses. This setup strongly favours the front runner and any prominent racers who can stay close — the hold-up horses face a tactical disadvantage with no pace pressure to soften up the leaders.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Supreme George Controls
45% probability
If Supreme George gets uncontested lead and dictates fractions
He can quicken off steady pace when ready, making it hard for hold-up horses to peg him back. Touquet tracking closely gives him best chance to respond if leader kicks.
If Touquet can stay close enough and Supreme George's stamina cracks
The in-form gelding has been winning regularly and can use his class edge to wear down the leader. His prominent style lets him pick the right moment to challenge.
TouquetSupreme GeorgeBrulure NoireLe Gentleman
C
Hold-Up Horse Swoops
20% probability
If the early pace becomes faster than expected and leaders weaken
Brulure Noire's excellent soft ground record (4W8P from 15 runs) makes him dangerous if getting the run of the race. His hold-up style benefits from a strong gallop.
Brulure NoireDiligent MilitiaTouquetSupreme George
D
Pace Collapses Early
5% probability
If Supreme George goes too slow and field bunches up turning in
Sprint finish favours horses with tactical speed rather than stamina. Le Gentleman's hold-up style could work if he gets clear run in messy finish.
Le GentlemanTouquetSupreme GeorgeBrulure Noire
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Supreme George gets uncontested lead - if no early pressure he can dictate the race on his terms
WATCH
Touquet's early position - needs to track the leader closely enough to respond when pace lifts
NOTE
First-time tongue-tie on Diligent Militia could spark improvement after recent poor runs
WATCH
Brulure Noire returning from 107-day break - watch for signs of rustiness despite excellent going record
NOTE
Le Gentleman's jumping under pressure - has shown tendency to fade and make mistakes when tired
3:32 — Russell Property Consultants Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
2m3½f · Soft · HCAP · 8 runners
Ben Solo to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Ben Solo and Knight Of Allen led, as the map showed.
Blow Your Wad won at 4.33 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Ben Solo
Prominent · 3
Blow Your WadSoldierofthestormJaipaletemps
Midfield · 2
MiralagoKnight Of Allen
Hold Up · 2
Olivers TravelsTorneo
Ben Solo provides the only confirmed early pace with his leading style, setting up a sustainable tempo without pressure from the field. The prominent runners Blow Your Wad, Miralago, Soldierofthestorm and Jaipaletemps will track in behind, while the hold-up trio of Olivers Travels, Knight Of Allen and Torneo settle towards the rear. With just one front runner and multiple closers, the pace should be measured early before quickening from the home turn. This setup strongly favours hold-up horses — Ben Solo faces no early pressure so the pace will be steady, allowing closers to sweep up late in the straight.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
55% probability
If Ben Solo sets his usual steady pace and the prominent horses don't apply early pressure.
The race becomes a sprint from two out with plenty left in the tank for the closers who have been conserving energy. Knight Of Allen and Torneo use their superior finishing kicks to sweep past tiring front runners.
Knight Of AllenTorneoOlivers TravelsBen Solo
B
Prominent Runners Strike
25% probability
If Blow Your Wad or Soldierofthestorm force the pace and make it a true test of stamina.
The increased tempo plays to horses positioned in the second rank who can respond to pressure while avoiding the worst of the early burn. Soldierofthestorm and Jaipaletemps benefit from their recent winning form and tactical positioning.
SoldierofthestormJaipaletempsBlow Your WadMiralago
C
Front Runner Steals It
15% probability
If Ben Solo gets away with very soft fractions and the field fails to organize a coherent challenge.
The lack of early pace leaves too much to do for the hold-up horses over this shorter trip. Ben Solo uses his head start to hold off late challenges despite his inconsistent recent form.
Ben SoloBlow Your WadSoldierofthestormKnight Of Allen
D
Pace Collapses Completely
5% probability
If multiple horses are pulled up or fall, creating an attritional contest.
The race becomes a survival test rather than a tactical affair, suiting the most reliable jumpers. Horses with solid recent form and jumping records benefit from the chaos ahead of them.
Olivers TravelsMiralagoKnight Of AllenJaipaletemps
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Ben Solo must be watched for early fractions as he faces no pace pressure and could steal a march if allowed soft splits
WATCH
Knight Of Allen's jumping needs monitoring as hold-up horses require clean jumps to deliver their finishing kick from off the pace
NOTE
Olivers Travels returning from 152 days off - watch for signs of rustiness early but could be primed for a big effort fresh
WATCH
The prominent quartet of Blow Your Wad, Miralago, Soldierofthestorm and Jaipaletemps could bunch up and interfere with each other
NOTE
Torneo represents Jamie Snowden who has 3 winners from 15 runners in the last 14 days suggesting stable is in good form
4:07 — South West Rail Solutions Ltd Handicap Hurdle
2m3½f · Soft · HCAP · 13 runners
Bluegrass likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Authentic Legacy and American Land and Lord Of All Saints led; the map had Bluegrass in front.
Authentic Legacy won at 12.00 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Bluegrass
Prominent · 4
Beau QualiAmerican LandSo You KnowIt's Top
Midfield · 4
MarlacooChief SundayLord Of All SaintsHackney Hill
Hold Up · 4
Wolf MoonAuthentic LegacyTorrentGold For Alec
Bluegrass looks the natural pace-setter with a confirmed front-running style and no obvious pressure from the field composition. The prominent runners So You Know, It's Top, Marlacoo, American Land, and Beau Quali are more likely to sit just off the pace rather than challenge Bluegrass for the early lead. This creates a controlled tempo with the large contingent of hold-up horses (Authentic Legacy, Torrent, Gold For Alec, Wolf Moon, Lord Of All Saints, Hackney Hill) positioned to strike late. This setup strongly favours hold-up horses — Bluegrass sets a manageable gallop that allows closers to time their challenges perfectly in the soft ground.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
55% probability
If Bluegrass sets an uncontested lead and the pace stays moderate through the early stages
The soft ground and steady tempo allows the strong contingent of hold-up horses to close powerfully, with Authentic Legacy and Wolf Moon perfectly positioned to exploit their tactical advantage. The pace-setters tire in the testing conditions as the closers sweep past in the final furlong.
Authentic LegacyWolf MoonTorrentGold For Alec
B
Prominent Tracker Wins
25% probability
If the prominent horses apply more pressure to Bluegrass and quicken the tempo approaching the home turn
So You Know and It's Top are ideally placed to capitalize when the early pace increases, sitting close enough to strike but avoiding the worst of any early speed battle. Their forward positions prove decisive as they have first run on the tiring leader while the hold-up horses face too much ground to make up.
So You KnowIt's TopMarlacooBeau Quali
C
Bluegrass Wire-To-Wire
12% probability
If Bluegrass gets completely uncontested fractions and kicks clear approaching the final flight
The front-runner exploits the lack of early pressure to build an insurmountable lead, finding enough stamina reserves in the soft ground to hold off late challengers. Stuart Edmunds' 2/13 recent record suggests the stable is in decent form to execute this front-running plan.
BluegrassAmerican LandSo You KnowIt's Top
D
Pace Collapses Early
8% probability
If multiple prominent runners go too fast early trying to track or challenge Bluegrass through the first half of the race
The unsustainable early gallop sets up a sprint finish where the most patient hold-up horses with the best turn of foot can capitalize on a crawling pace scenario. Lord Of All Saints and Gold For Alec benefit most from this tactical meltdown as fresher finishers.
Lord Of All SaintsGold For AlecHackney HillAuthentic Legacy
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Bluegrass getting an uncontested lead through the early stages — if no prominent runners challenge him the race becomes a sitting duck scenario for hold-up horses
WATCH
Authentic Legacy and Wolf Moon both returning from lengthy breaks exceeding 30+ days — fitness levels uncertain despite their tactical advantages
NOTE
So You Know wearing first-time tongue-tie which could provide the extra sharpening needed to capitalize on his prominent running style
WATCH
Multiple 7lb and 5lb claiming jockeys aboard key contenders including Torrent and Beau Quali may lack tactical nous in a competitive handicap
NOTE
American Land returning from 166-day absence but Joe Tizzard's horses typically come back fit first-time and his front-running style could disrupt the pace
4:39 — UB40 Live After Racing 24th July Handicap Hurdle
2m7½f · Soft · HCAP · 9 runners
Galassian to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
The Italian Fox led; the map had Galassian in front.
Dessie Haze won at 10.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Galassian
Prominent · 4
Home And DryGroom De CotteBobalotThe Italian Fox
Midfield · 1
Kingston Kid
Hold Up · 3
Man MaidDessie HazeFfree Pedro
Galassian looks the lone pace-setter with four horses (Bobalot, Groom De Cotte, Kingston Kid, The Italian Fox, Home And Dry) wanting prominent positions behind him, creating significant traffic issues. The pace should be steady rather than frantic with just one leader, but the prominent congestion will cause interference and positioning problems from 3 out as they fan out for their challenges. This setup moderately favours the hold-up horses who can avoid the scrimmaging and benefit from the solid gallop — Man Maid, Ffree Pedro and Dessie Haze should get the ideal race shape.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-up horses benefit
45% probability
If the prominent pack gets into a battle for position turning in
The pace will be honest enough to set up the race perfectly for the back markers, who avoid all the interference and get first run on a strung-out field. Man Maid and Dessie Haze can use their class to pick off tired leaders.
Man MaidDessie HazeFfree PedroGroom De Cotte
B
Prominent horse wins clear
30% probability
If one of the prominent runners gets a clear run and kicks before the others
They can steal a march on the field while the others are still scrimmaging, with The Italian Fox or Groom De Cotte having the class and recent form to capitalize. The hold-up horses may be left with too much to do.
The Italian FoxGroom De CotteMan MaidGalassian
C
Pace collapses early
15% probability
If Galassian goes too slow or gets headed early by the prominent pack
The race becomes a sprint finish where positioning from the last hurdle is everything, suiting horses who can quicken rather than stay. Bobalot's higher RPR rating could prove decisive in a bunched finish.
BobalotThe Italian FoxKingston KidMan Maid
D
Front runner steals it
10% probability
If Galassian gets an easy lead and the prominent horses fail to pressure him
Despite his modest recent form, he could pinch it if allowed to dictate completely uncontested. The longer distance and soft ground would aid his stamina, though his class looks modest for the grade.
GalassianHome And DryGroom De CotteThe Italian Fox
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Traffic problems 3 out as five prominent runners (Bobalot, Groom De Cotte, Kingston Kid, The Italian Fox, Home And Dry) converge behind Galassian
WATCH
Kingston Kid making debut with tongue-tie and blinkers after poor recent form - equipment changes suggest issues
NOTE
The Italian Fox returning quickly after 7 days with in-form Tizzard stable booking top jockey Powell
WATCH
Home And Dry returning after 403 days off with first-time cheekpieces - huge fitness question
NOTE
Man Maid getting ideal setup as hold-up horse with 3lb claiming allowance in competitive handicap
5:15 — Inittogether Festival 22nd-24th May Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)
2m · Soft · CLS5 · 12 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.