Archive›Chepstow · 29 May 2026

Chepstow

29 May 2026 · 7 races

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Read from the in-running comments·How often this is right →

2:00 — LSL Racing Horse Sales Syndication Leasing Apprentice Handicap

1m4f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Stage Show likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Endofastorm led; the map had Stage Show in front.

Oasis Sunrise won at 4.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Stage Show

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 6

Sea Of CharmTrojan TruthBeauneSapphire SiroccoPaps Of JuraEndofastorm

Hold Up · 2

Oasis SunriseV Power

Stage Show will lead from the start with only Endofastorm capable of providing early company, creating a sustainable gallop rather than frantic early pace. The moderate tempo should suit the large contingent of hold-up horses who can track the leaders without pressure. With most runners preferring to come from off the pace, those able to secure good tracking positions behind the leaders will have tactical advantages. This shape clearly favours prominent racers and patient hold-up horses who can finish strongly, while the confirmed front-runners face the risk of being swamped late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Comfortable Pace Suits Closers

45% probability

If Stage Show and Endofastorm set honest but manageable fractions without early pressure

The steady gallop allows hold-up horses to settle perfectly and unleash sustained finishes, overwhelming the front-runners in the final furlong. Patient tactics and strong finishing kicks prove decisive.

Oasis SunriseTrojan TruthV PowerSea Of Charm

Front-Runners Steal March

30% probability

If Stage Show gets away with soft sectionals and kicks clear turning for home

The leaders build an unassailable advantage while the hold-up horses struggle to close the gap despite late efforts. Early position and tactical speed prove more valuable than raw finishing pace.

Stage ShowEndofastormSapphire SiroccoOasis Sunrise

Modest Pace Favours Veterans

15% probability

If the tempo becomes pedestrian and experience trumps raw ability in a tactical finish

The seasoned campaigners use their race craft to position perfectly for late challenges while younger horses get caught flat-footed. Ring-rust and class tell in a slowly-run contest.

Sea Of CharmTrojan TruthStage ShowPaps Of Jura

Chaotic Finish Benefits Outsiders

10% probability

If pace collapses completely creating a sprint finish from halfway

The race becomes a pure lottery where positioning luck and apprentice claims matter more than form, allowing unconsidered runners to strike. Form lines become meaningless in the scramble.

Sapphire SiroccoPaps Of JuraEndofastormV Power

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Stage Show and Endofastorm could collaborate to set unsustainably strong pace that compromises both front-runners late on.

WATCH

Sea Of Charm's tendency to race too freely could see her waste energy early under pressure from inexperienced apprentice rider.

NOTE

Sapphire Sirocco's market movement will reveal connections' confidence after 142-day absence and stable switch.

WATCH

V Power's unfamiliarity with turf racing could see poor jumping away or positioning errors from claiming rider.

NOTE

Oasis Sunrise's settling ability in calmer waters after two hard-fought recent battles on faster surfaces.

2:30 — Finli Live Your Best Financial Life Handicap

1m2f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Time To Sparkle likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Gnocchi led; the map had Time To Sparkle in front.

Regulus Black won at 2.88 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Time To Sparkle

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 5

Dash Of ClassRegulus BlackGo For GoldLeia AntillesNo Drama Mama

Hold Up · 2

GnocchiEcho Valley

Time To Sparkle will likely take the race to them from the front, with no other obvious pace-setters in this small field of predominantly hold-up horses. With six of the eight runners showing hold-up tendencies, Time To Sparkle should get an uncontested lead and be able to dictate fractions over this 1m2f trip. The lack of pace pressure means the race will likely develop into a sprint from the home turn, with the field bunched behind the leader. This tactical setup strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems, while hold-up horses face the difficult task of making up ground in a slowly-run race.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dominates

45% probability

If Time To Sparkle gets soft fractions and kicks clear turning for home

The lack of early pace allows the leader to conserve energy and prove too strong in the straight. Hold-up horses struggle to make up the deficit against a horse who has had it all his own way.

Time To SparkleRegulus BlackDash Of Class

Late Closer Strikes

30% probability

If the pace collapse allows a strong finisher to sweep past a tired leader

One of the better hold-up horses times their run perfectly and catches Time To Sparkle close home. The winner needs to be drawn well and get a clear run.

Regulus BlackDash Of ClassTime To SparkleGnocchi

Pace Duel Develops

15% probability

If another horse challenges Time To Sparkle early and creates stronger gallop

Unexpected early pressure weakens the front-runner and sets up the race for a closer. The increased pace helps those with finishing kick but hurts the leader.

Regulus BlackGnocchiEcho ValleyDash Of Class

Outsider Benefits

10% probability

If the pace scenario and traffic problems allow a longshot to sneak through

The tactical nature creates opportunities for an unfancied runner who gets the right trip. Chaos in running allows value to emerge from horses switching to turf or trying the trip.

Echo ValleyLeia AntillesTime To SparkleGo For Gold

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Time To Sparkle's position through the first half-mile - if allowed soft lead, becomes very hard to peg back

WATCH

Traffic problems turning for home with seven hold-up horses bunching behind the leader creating potential interference

WATCH

Regulus Black's position entering the straight - needs to be close enough to challenge if pace collapses

NOTE

First-time headgear impact on Gnocchi and No Drama Mama who both show equipment changes

NOTE

Go For Gold's fitness after 174-day layoff in what could become tactical affair requiring sharp acceleration

3:00 — Bill Lewtons 80th Birthday Novice Stakes

1m2f · Good · NOV · 8 runners

Lead contested: Alfaraz v Blue HerculesHISTORIC

How it ran

Blue Hercules led, as the map showed.

Echo Of Stars won at 3.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

AlfarazBlue Hercules

Prominent · 2

Echo Of StarsEl Nay

Midfield · 2

Madame DragonKinetic Impact

Hold Up · 2

Strong Man TomProphet Squeeze

Alfaraz and Blue Hercules will contest the early pace as confirmed front runners, with El Nay and Echo Of Stars likely to track them prominently. The honest gallop these leaders create should set up a tactical finish over Chepstow's testing 1m2f circuit. Strong Man Tom and Prophet Squeeze from the back will need significant pace collapse to feature, while the debutants Madame Dragon and Kinetic Impact represent unknowns. This race shape clearly favours prominent runners who can track the pace and strike in the final two furlongs.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Tracker Prevails

45% probability

If the early pace is honest but sustainable between Alfaraz and Blue Hercules

El Nay or Echo Of Stars can track the leaders before mounting a decisive challenge, benefiting from the perfect tactical position. Their superior class tells in a sustained finish over this demanding track.

El NayEcho Of StarsAlfarazKinetic Impact

Front Runner Survives

30% probability

If Blue Hercules shows significant improvement from his Newbury fourth

The pace becomes more conservative than expected, allowing one of the early leaders to dictate terms and hold on. Alfaraz's proven stamina at this trip gives him the edge over improving Blue Hercules.

AlfarazBlue HerculesEl NayEcho Of Stars

Debutant Surprise

15% probability

If Kinetic Impact or Madame Dragon possess undisclosed ability

The race develops into a messy affair where inexperience matters less, allowing a newcomer with superior raw talent to strike. Charles Hills' Kinetic Impact looks the more likely given his trainer's ability with newcomers.

Kinetic ImpactMadame DragonEl NayEcho Of Stars

Pace Collapse Special

10% probability

If both Alfaraz and Blue Hercules go too fast early on

The leaders tire dramatically in the final furlong, creating an opportunity for the hold-up horses. Strong Man Tom's recent Flat debut experience could prove valuable if the race falls apart.

Strong Man TomProphet SqueezeEl NayEcho Of Stars

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Kinetic Impact's market movements will reveal stable confidence in this expensive Charles Hills newcomer

WATCH

Blue Hercules showed marked improvement last time and could progress again with just two runs under his belt

NOTE

El Nay gets tongue-tie for first time which could sharpen him up after disappointing Chester run

WATCH

Strong Man Tom makes very quick return after poor debut, suggesting connections expect better

NOTE

Alfaraz returns after longest break of career but has proven stamina for this demanding trip

3:30 — 3 Day Pass £30 DragonBet WRF Handicap

5f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

On Edge likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

So Smart led; the map had On Edge in front.

On Edge won at 5.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

On Edge

Prominent · 1

In The City

Midfield · 2

Over SpicedSo Smart

Hold Up · 1

Cayman Tai

On Edge stands as the sole confirmed front runner with his prominent style and recent Bath win from the front. Over Spiced also won from the front at Bath recently and will likely challenge On Edge for the early lead, creating a potentially fast gallop. With In The City, So Smart and Over Spiced all showing prominent tendencies, there will be plenty of early pace pressure. This setup strongly favours Cayman Tai's hold-up style, as the lone closer can benefit from the expected strong gallop and finish fastest of all.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Pace Collapse

65% probability

If On Edge and Over Spiced engage in early pace duel with prominent runners close up

The sustained gallop will set up perfectly for Cayman Tai to sweep past tired leaders in the final furlong. His recent Southwell win showed his devastating finishing kick when things fall right.

Cayman TaiSo SmartIn The City

Controlled Front Running

20% probability

If On Edge gets an easy lead without serious pressure from Over Spiced

The pace will be more manageable allowing the leader to kick clear in the straight. On Edge's consistency and course form make him hard to peg back.

On EdgeOver SpicedCayman TaiSo Smart

Speed Duel Favours Third

12% probability

If On Edge and Over Spiced go too fast early while prominent runners stay closer

The pace setters will weaken but those tracking won't have enough left either. So Smart can benefit from his lower weight and recent course form.

So SmartIn The CityOver SpicedOn Edge

Front Runner Dominance

3% probability

If Over Spiced repeats her Bath front-running victory without serious challenge

She gets first run on the field and her recent win gives her confidence to dominate again. The combination of form and tactics proves unbeatable.

Over SpicedOn EdgeCayman Tai

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

On Edge's 221-day absence could tell in a sprint finish despite his obvious class advantage

WATCH

Over Spiced running again just 3 days after her Bath win may show signs of fatigue in the closing stages

NOTE

Cayman Tai needs the pace to develop strongly early or his hold-up style becomes ineffective

WATCH

So Smart's recent third at course came on softer ground than today's good to firm conditions

NOTE

In The City's seasonal debut flop suggests something was amiss and he needs to prove fitness

4:05 — UB40 Live After Racing 24th July Handicap (Chepstow Mile Series Qualifier)

1m · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Alice's Influence to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Alice's Influence led, as the map showed.

Thanos won at 1.67 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Alice's Influence

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 4

MoojViolet GoldsmithDiamond AuraKarmacy

Hold Up · 2

ThanosLihou Lady

Alice's Influence will lead unchallenged with five hold-up horses (Mooj, Violet Goldsmith, Lihou Lady, Thanos, Diamond Aura, Karmacy) sitting behind her sustainable gallop. The lone front-runner can dictate terms without pressure, setting honest but manageable fractions over this mile trip on good to firm ground. With no prominent racers to apply early heat, Alice's Influence controls the tempo completely while the field bunches behind. This race shape strongly favours the leader Alice's Influence and any hold-up horses with genuine finishing kicks like Thanos.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

45% probability

If Alice's Influence maintains her strong recent form and isn't headed in the straight.

The leader gets perfect fractions and kicks clear turning for home while the hold-up brigade arrives too late. Her recent dead-heat win and close second show she's in career-best form and this tactical advantage seals victory.

Alice's InfluenceThanosMoojKarmacy

Late Closer Prevails

30% probability

If Thanos reproduces his 6-length breakthrough win from ten days ago with another strong finish.

The 4lb penalty proves manageable as he times his challenge perfectly from the back while Alice's Influence weakens late. His trainer Harry Charlton hits 4/13 winners and the cheekpieces continue working.

ThanosMoojAlice's InfluenceLihou Lady

Surprise Hold-Up Winner

15% probability

If Mooj benefits significantly from the step up to a mile having shown early promise over shorter trips.

Her Leicester debut third over 6f suggests untapped potential and this longer distance suits her pedigree better. The sustainable pace allows her to close from the rear under Rossa Ryan.

MoojViolet GoldsmithThanosAlice's Influence

Field Bunches Late Scramble

10% probability

If Alice's Influence sets overly generous fractions and multiple hold-up horses arrive together in a bunch finish.

The race becomes a sprint from the furlong pole with several backmarkers getting competitive simultaneously. Form horses struggle to separate in the final yards.

Lihou LadyKarmacyDiamond AuraViolet Goldsmith

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Alice's Influence if she gets away with slow early fractions - could prove unstoppable from the front

WATCH

Thanos's jumping from the gates - if slowly away his hold-up style becomes compromised in small field

WATCH

Diamond Aura showing any early pace despite hold-up rating after 160-day layoff

NOTE

Mooj's position turning for home - if close enough could benefit most from step up in trip

NOTE

Any jockey making early moves before the 3f pole in this tactical setup

4:40 — LSL Racing Horse Sales Syndication Leasing Maiden Stakes

7f · Good · CLS4 · 7 runners

Guitar Solo to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Brocklesby Bill and Food For Thought led; the map had Guitar Solo in front.

Brocklesby Bill won at 34.00 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Guitar Solo

Prominent · 1

Food For Thought

Midfield · 3

IngemarDiane ChasseresseWatercraft

Hold Up · 2

QuisanaBrocklesby Bill

Guitar Solo will dictate from the front with no obvious competition for the early lead, creating a sustainable tempo that suits his front-running style. Food For Thought may track prominently in second, while hold-up horses Quisana, Brocklesby Bill and Watercraft will settle behind the modest pace. The lack of pace pressure means Guitar Solo can control the fractions and kick clear, while the steady gallop will allow closers to mount challenges but may not provide enough tempo to expose the leader's stamina. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners and the pace-setter, disadvantaging pure hold-up horses who need a stronger gallop.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Guitar Solo Controls

45% probability

If Guitar Solo maintains his front-running advantage without serious early pressure

The leader can dictate comfortable fractions and kick clear when asked, making full use of his tactical advantage. The modest pace suits his stamina while giving him first run on his rivals.

Guitar SoloFood For ThoughtQuisanaIngemar

Closers Find Gear

30% probability

If the hold-up horses can overcome the lack of pace and produce strong late runs

Quisana and Brocklesby Bill benefit from the drop back to 7f and their finishing kicks prove decisive despite the steady tempo. The lack of early speed allows them to get closer and strike late.

QuisanaBrocklesby BillGuitar SoloFood For Thought

Prominent Tracker Strikes

15% probability

If Food For Thought can improve significantly from his promising second at Yarmouth

The Ralph Beckett runner uses his class edge to track Guitar Solo before asserting in the final furlong. His 235-day break may have freshened him up for a bold showing on turf return.

Food For ThoughtGuitar SoloQuisanaIngemar

Lightly-Raced Improver

10% probability

If Ingemar shows significant natural ability on his turf debut for Brian Meehan

The well-bred newcomer overcomes his lack of experience to win with raw talent. His pedigree suggests middle-distance ability but he may have enough speed for this 7f assignment.

IngemarQuisanaGuitar SoloFood For Thought

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Guitar Solo could steal this if allowed uncontested lead as his recent Newbury run showed clear ability

WATCH

Food For Thought's 235-day absence and trip drop create uncertainty despite his obvious class edge

NOTE

Quisana's quick 11-day turnaround after promising Windsor effort could indicate confidence from connections

WATCH

Brocklesby Bill showed inexperience on debut and 5lb apprentice may struggle in tactical finish

NOTE

Ingemar represents powerful Meehan/Bowen combination but breeding suggests he wants further than 7f

5:10 — DragonBet Welsh Racing Festival 9-11th October Handicap

7f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Connie's Rose to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Connie's Rose led, as the map showed.

Northcliff won at 6.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Connie's Rose

Prominent · 4

RedredrobinNorthcliffForever My PrinceVape

Midfield · 2

King Of The DanceToo Much Trevor

Hold Up · 3

AjradRomanovichOviedo

Connie's Rose will likely lead uncontested early with the four prominent runners (Northcliff, Vape, Forever My Prince, Redredrobin) settling just behind rather than challenging for the lead. This creates a sustainable pace through the first 4-5 furlongs before the prominent quartet apply pressure turning for home. The hold-up brigade (Ajrad, Oviedo, King Of The Dance, Too Much Trevor, Romanovich) will need significant pace collapse to be effective over this sharp 7f trip. This race shape clearly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can secure good early positions without excessive effort.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Sustainable Pace Holds

65% probability

If Connie's Rose dictates without serious early pressure and the prominent runners settle kindly

The pace stays honest but not punishing, allowing those with early speed to maintain their advantage through the final 2f when the hold-up horses make their move. Front-runners and prominent racers benefit from avoiding a grueling pace battle while still having enough left to resist late challengers.

Connie's RoseVapeNorthcliffForever My Prince

Late Pace Collapse

20% probability

If the early pace becomes unsustainably fast with prominent runners pressuring Connie's Rose from the 4f pole

The leaders tire dramatically in the final furlong, creating opportunities for patient hold-up horses with strong finishing kicks. This scenario requires significant pace pressure early to set up the collapse.

Too Much TrevorRomanovichKing Of The DanceAjrad

Prominent Traffic Jam

12% probability

If all four prominent runners bunch up behind Connie's Rose creating interference 2-3f out

The pace becomes stop-start in the crucial phase as jockeys struggle for racing room, allowing either a clear leader to escape or patient hold-up horses to sweep past the chaos. Position and luck become critical factors.

Connie's RoseKing Of The DanceAjradToo Much Trevor

Early Leader Cracks

3% probability

If Connie's Rose shows early pace but fades quickly under pressure from the prominent pack

A moderate pace becomes a sprint from the 3f pole when the leader capitulates, but the distance still favours those with early tactical speed over pure hold-up horses. Mid-pack prominent runners benefit most.

VapeNorthcliffForever My PrinceRedredrobin

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Connie's Rose could dictate throughout if prominent runners settle too kindly and allow uncontested fractions

WATCH

Traffic problems likely developing 2-3f out as four prominent runners (Northcliff, Vape, Forever My Prince, Redredrobin) converge behind the leader

NOTE

Vape's fitness after 251-day absence is crucial given his proven course form when ready

WATCH

Too Much Trevor's weight advantage could prove decisive if any pace scenario develops for hold-up horses

NOTE

Trainer form shows Grace Harris (0/21) and Malcolm Saunders (0/1) struggling while Dunn (2/3) and Flint (1/4) show better recent strike rates

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 29 May 2026.

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