Archive›Chester · 6 May 2026

Chester

6 May 2026 · 7 races

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1:30 — CAA Stellar Lily Agnes EBF Conditions Stakes (GBB Race)

5f · Good · CLS2 · 8 runners

3 vying for the leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Adonius led, as the map showed.

Adonius won at 4.33 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Hickory LadAdoniusWait Geordie

Prominent · 3

Final AppealCailin AineFern Clyde

Midfield · 1

Black Treasure

Hold Up · 1

Yahaira

Hickory Lad, Adonius, and Wait Geordie will battle for early supremacy, with all three confirmed front-runners setting a fierce gallop over Chester's tight 5f circuit. This guaranteed strong pace will put maximum pressure on stamina reserves in the closing stages. The relentless tempo created by this trio of speed horses will set up the race perfectly for prominent racers who can track the pace without getting embroiled in the early speed duel. This race shape strongly favours PROMINENT runners who can position themselves just behind the battling leaders.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Pace Collapses Late

45% probability

If the three front-runners burn each other out in a speed duel

The strong early gallop takes its toll and those who raced prominently inherit the lead in the final furlong. Final Appeal and Cailin Aine are perfectly positioned to capitalise.

Final AppealCailin AineBlack TreasureFern Clyde

Front Runner Survives

30% probability

If one of the pace-setters can break clear of the speed battle

Adonius or Hickory Lad proves strongest in the early exchanges and maintains enough for victory. Their proven ability to make all gives them the edge over their front-running rivals.

AdoniusHickory LadWait GeordieFinal Appeal

Newcomer Strikes

15% probability

If Black Treasure shows natural early pace despite inexperience

The Blackbeard filly overcomes her debut status to track the leaders and strike late with fresh legs. Her breeding suggests she has the class to exploit the pace collapse.

Black TreasureFinal AppealCailin AineHickory Lad

Outsider Benefits

10% probability

If the pace is even stronger than expected and catches everyone

Fern Clyde or Yahaira get the perfect tow behind the speed battle and find unexpected improvement. The severe pace allows a horse with lesser form to sneak through.

Fern ClydeYahairaCailin AineBlack Treasure

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if any of Hickory Lad, Adonius or Wait Geordie breaks clear early as this will negate the pace advantage

WATCH

Monitor Black Treasure's market moves as any confidence would suggest she has shown serious ability at home

NOTE

Check Final Appeal's positioning turning in as he's proven on left-handed tracks and suits the pace shape

WATCH

Watch for traffic problems involving the prominent runners if the front three spread across the track

NOTE

Observe if Yahaira gets any early position as her hold-up style faces impossible task in this pace scenario

2:05 — Join Ladbrokes Bet 5 Get 30 Earl Grosvenor Handicap

7½f · Good · HCAP · 14 runners

Lead contested: Snow Master v Partisan HeroHISTORIC

How it ran

Partisan Hero and Percy's Lad led, as the map showed.

Supido won at 8.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.

5 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Snow MasterPartisan Hero

Prominent · 4

Al Shabab StormSolar AclaimBellarchiPercy's Lad

Midfield · 4

God Of WarSupidoLir SpecialeBrighton Boy

Hold Up · 4

Thunder RoarCity HouseDivine LibraThe Angel King

Snow Master and Partisan Hero will ensure a solid early gallop over this testing 7½f trip at Chester. Snow Master has shown a tendency to overrace in Group company but should settle better in handicap grade, while Partisan Hero's front-running style perfectly suits Chester's tight configuration. The sustained pace will create a genuine test of stamina, with the field likely stringing out through the final two furlongs. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses with proven stamina who can finish strongly when others tire.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Gallop Collapse

45% probability

If Snow Master and Partisan Hero maintain a relentless pace through halfway

The early leaders will weaken dramatically in the final furlong, creating gaps for closers with proven stamina. Hold-up horses like Thunder Roar and Divine Libra can exploit their superior finishing kick when the pace collapses.

Thunder RoarDivine LibraSupidoGod Of War

Moderate Pace Kick

30% probability

If the early pace steadies after an initial burst from the front pair

The race becomes more tactical with prominent racers able to track the leaders comfortably before delivering sustained challenges. Percy's Lad and Bellarchi can use their positioning to time their moves perfectly when the real racing begins.

Percy's LadBellarchiAl Shabab StormSolar Aclaim

Front Runner Survives

15% probability

If Snow Master or Partisan Hero finds the right rhythm and the field fails to close

One of the pace-setters maintains their advantage by dictating terms and keeping enough in reserve for the finish. The leader's stamina proves superior to the closing efforts of the hold-up horses behind.

Snow MasterPartisan HeroBrighton BoyCity House

Sprint Finish Chaos

10% probability

If the pace becomes extremely sedate with multiple horses still in contention turning in

The race develops into a cavalry charge with pure speed becoming decisive over stamina. Horses with tactical speed like Lir Speciale can produce devastating late bursts when the field bunches.

Lir SpecialeThe Angel KingAl Shabab StormBellarchi

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Snow Master could over-race early as he did in Group company at Haydock, potentially compromising his stamina reserves

WATCH

Percy's Lad returning from 20-month absence despite being defending champion with excellent Chester record

WATCH

Solar Aclaim stepping up significantly in trip after wind surgery with no recent form guide

NOTE

Divine Libra and Thunder Roar both ideally positioned if the early pace creates the expected collapse scenario

NOTE

Partisan Hero's recent sprint form in Bahrain could translate perfectly to Chester's unique tactical demands

2:35 — Weatherbys Cheshire Oaks (Listed Race) (Fillies)

1m3½f · Good · LST · 5 runners

I'm The One to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Sugar Island led; the map had I'm The One in front.

Amelia Earhart won at 2.62 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

I'm The One

Prominent · 2

Sugar IslandAmelia Earhart

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

A La ProchaineWinged One

I'm The One will dictate terms from the front with no obvious pace pressure in this small field. Sugar Island and Amelia Earhart will likely sit prominent but won't challenge the early gallop, while A La Prochaine and Winged One are confirmed hold-up types who need others to create the pace. With just one natural leader and limited early speed, this sets up a moderate tempo that will quicken late. This tactical scenario strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can control their position early, as the hold-up horses face a searching test to make up ground.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Runner Dominance

45% probability

If I'm The One gets an uncontested lead and sets her own fractions

She can dictate a pace that suits her stamina strengths and prove hard to peg back when the field comes hunting. The lack of early pressure allows her to save energy for a sustained finish that the closers struggle to match.

I'm The OneSugar IslandAmelia EarhartA La Prochaine

Prominent Pair Take Control

30% probability

If Sugar Island or Amelia Earhart press forward to challenge I'm The One early

This creates a more honest gallop that could find out the leader's stamina while setting up perfectly for these proven middle-distance types. The increased pace will make life harder for the hold-up horses to recover from their customary slow starts.

Sugar IslandAmelia EarhartI'm The OneA La Prochaine

Hold-Up Horse Superior Class

15% probability

If the pace collapses completely and becomes a crawl throughout

A La Prochaine and Winged One get the tactical race they need with a sprint finish that allows superior acceleration to triumph. However, both face fitness questions after long layoffs which makes this scenario less reliable than their running styles suggest.

A La ProchaineWinged OneAmelia EarhartI'm The One

Tactical Stalemate Favours Experience

10% probability

If jockeys play waiting games and nobody wants to commit early

The race becomes a test of tactical nous and experience where Amelia Earhart's Group race experience tells. This scrappy scenario could catch out the less experienced runners who haven't faced such tactical battles.

Amelia EarhartSugar IslandI'm The OneA La Prochaine

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

A La Prochaine and Winged One both return from 190+ day breaks making their fitness levels a significant unknown

WATCH

I'm The One faces a massive class jump from maiden company to Listed level against Group-race experienced rivals

NOTE

Sugar Island carries the only penalty in the race which could prove decisive in a tight finish

WATCH

The small field size means any tactical errors or poor breaks will be magnified with limited opportunities to recover

NOTE

Watch for how aggressively the O'Brien pair are ridden as their tactics will shape the entire race narrative

3:05 — Boodles Chester Vase Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings)

1m4½f · Good · G3 · 7 runners

Benvenuto Cellini to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Proposition and Mr Colonel led; the map had Benvenuto Cellini in front.

Benvenuto Cellini won at 1.22 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Benvenuto Cellini

Prominent · 3

Mr ColonelPropositionMr Vettori

Midfield · 1

Royal Standard

Hold Up · 2

Water To WineDel Maro

Benvenuto Cellini is the sole confirmed front runner and should dictate terms without pressure from flag to finish. Mr Colonel, Proposition, and Mr Vettori will sit prominent but none are confirmed pace pressers, meaning the O'Brien runner can bowl along at sustainable fractions. Del Maro and the hold-up horses will need the pace to be strong enough to set up their finishing kicks over Chester's unique sharp turns. This controlled tempo heavily favours the front runner and prominent racers who can stay close to the pace without getting into a battle.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Benvenuto Cellini Dominates

45% probability

If Benvenuto Cellini gets an uncontested lead and maintains his stamina

The Ballydoyle runner can replicate his Leopardstown Group 2 victory where he made all unchallenged. The combination of Ryan Moore's tactical nous and the horse's proven front-running ability makes him extremely hard to peg back on this tight track.

Benvenuto CelliniMr ColonelPropositionMr Vettori

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If one of the prominent runners can sit close enough to challenge turning for home

Mr Colonel or Proposition could track the leader and have enough left to mount a challenge in the final two furlongs. The sustained pace would suit their racing style while not being strong enough to fully set up the closers.

Mr ColonelPropositionBenvenuto CelliniMr Vettori

Hold-up Horse Surprise

15% probability

If the early pace is stronger than expected due to tactical pressure

Del Maro could benefit from a more searching gallop that would stretch Benvenuto Cellini's stamina reserves. His progressive profile and William Buick's big-race experience make him the most likely closer to capitalize.

Del MaroMr VettoriBenvenuto CelliniMr Colonel

Pace Collapse Benefits

10% probability

If the pace becomes crawling slow with no one willing to challenge early

The race could become a sprint finish where tactical positioning matters more than sustained pace. This would open up opportunities for any horse that gets a perfect trip regardless of usual running style.

PropositionDel MaroMr VettoriMr Colonel

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Benvenuto Cellini must be watched for any signs of ring rustiness after 193 days absence from the track

WATCH

Mr Colonel's tendency to race in cheekpieces last time suggests potential focus issues that could resurface

WATCH

Proposition's seasonal reappearance for O'Brien after nearly seven months off needs monitoring for fitness

NOTE

Del Maro requires a strong early pace to set up his finishing kick but may not get it with one front runner

NOTE

Mr Vettori's right-handed hanging tendency could be problematic on Chester's tight left-handed configuration

3:40 — American Holidays Handicap

6f · Good · HCAP · 14 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Ruby's Angel and Temple Of Athena led; the map had Silent Strike and Cherry Baker and Evie Ross in front.

Cherry Baker won at 26.00 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Silent StrikeCherry BakerEvie Ross

Prominent · 6

Temple Of AthenaDo BronxsAlaminosStar MaterialArduis InvictaAngel Love

Midfield · 3

Saffron DandyRuby's AngelTricky Tel

Hold Up · 2

Watcha SnoopGo Vince Go

Silent Strike, Cherry Baker and Evie Ross will ensure a strong gallop from the start, with 6 other prominent runners (Do Bronxs, Tricky Tel, Angel Love, Temple Of Athena, Alaminos, Ruby's Angel) creating significant early congestion. The pace will be honest throughout this 6f test, likely stretching the field and causing traffic problems approaching the final 2f as the prominent pack bunches. This genuine gallop and inevitable crowding will strongly favour the hold-up horses Watcha Snoop and Go Vince Go, who can sit off the pace and find cleaner runs when it matters most.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Prosper

55% probability

If the prominent pack creates the expected traffic jam 2f out...

Watcha Snoop and Go Vince Go benefit from cleaner runs as the pace collapses ahead of them. The strong early gallop sets up perfectly for their patient tactics to pay dividends.

Watcha SnoopGo Vince GoStar MaterialAlaminos

Prominent Tactical Success

25% probability

If one of the prominent runners secures an uncontested position...

Temple Of Athena or Alaminos could profit from tactical speed to avoid the worst congestion. Their experience in competitive handicaps gives them the edge in a messy finish.

Temple Of AthenaAlaminosRuby's AngelStar Material

Pace Collapse Benefits

12% probability

If the front three go too fast and tie each other up...

The moderate pace-setters burn out leaving the race to prominent horses with tactical speed. Angel Love and Ruby's Angel can capitalize on their more patient prominent styles.

Angel LoveRuby's AngelDo BronxsTricky Tel

Front Runner Survives

8% probability

If Cherry Baker or Evie Ross get uncontested leads...

One of the leaders gets first run and holds on despite the strong pace behind them. Their class advantages over this field could see them through in a driving finish.

Cherry BakerEvie RossWatcha SnoopTemple Of Athena

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Silent Strike's non-runner status removes a key front runner, potentially easing the early pace for the remaining leaders

WATCH

Temple Of Athena stretching back up to 6f from 5f specialist campaign may struggle with the longer trip under pressure

NOTE

Watcha Snoop's 200-day absence since Ascot win could blunt his finishing kick despite hold-up advantage

WATCH

Ruby's Angel faces 242-day layoff returning to turf after disappointing all-weather effort last time

NOTE

Star Material's visor application suggests trainer concerns about his focus in the expected crowded finish

4:10 — TMT Group Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

1m2½f · Good · CLS3 · 7 runners

Alfaraz to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

El Nay led; the map had Alfaraz in front.

Tornado Tower won at 2.62 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Alfaraz

Prominent · 3

Arabian DesertEl NayNorman Invasion

Midfield · 2

SottsfieldOutback Legend

Hold Up · 1

Tornado Tower

Alfaraz would have been the sole genuine front-runner but is now a non-runner, leaving Arabian Desert and El Nay as the most likely early leaders in a field lacking natural pace. With both having prominent rather than pure lead styles, they may settle into a steadier rhythm early before quickening. Norman Invasion and Outback Legend will track behind this pair, while Tornado Tower's hold-up style sees him held up for a late challenge. This moderate pace setup strongly favours prominent runners and hold-up horses who can finish, with front-runners having been removed from the equation.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Steady Pace Finish

45% probability

If Arabian Desert and El Nay settle into a comfortable rhythm early without serious pressure.

The lack of genuine pace allows hold-up horses to get into contention as the race develops into a sprint finish. Tornado Tower's Gosden polish and Frankel breeding shine through in this tactical affair.

Tornado TowerArabian DesertEl NayNorman Invasion

Prominent Duel Develops

30% probability

If Arabian Desert and El Nay engage in a sustained battle from the home turn.

Their duel sets up the race perfectly for Norman Invasion and any other closer to sweep past in the final furlong. The early leaders compound each other while opening the door for late runners.

Norman InvasionTornado TowerArabian DesertEl Nay

Arabian Desert Dominates

15% probability

If Arabian Desert can dictate terms from the front without serious challenge.

His superior RPR of 105 tells as he controls the race from pillar to post in a truly-run contest. El Nay and the others struggle to bridge the gap to a horse who has found his level.

Arabian DesertEl NayNorman InvasionTornado Tower

Pace Collapse Benefits

10% probability

If the early pace is exceptionally slow with all prominent horses going too steadily.

The race becomes a messy scramble where any horse can win regardless of ability or style. Outback Legend or even Sottsfield could emerge from the pack in a blanket finish.

Outback LegendNorman InvasionSottsfieldEl Nay

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Tornado Tower's ability to get competitive position from hold-up style in a race lacking genuine pace

WATCH

Arabian Desert's mental attitude after being turned over as strong favourite last time out

WATCH

El Nay making turf debut after two AW starts, surface switch could expose limitations

NOTE

Norman Invasion returning after long absence but previous form suggests he has ability

NOTE

The absence of Alfaraz removes the main pace angle and creates tactical uncertainty

4:45 — Roodee Handicap

7f · Good · HCAP · 14 runners

Bell Shot to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Sujet and Huscal led; the map had Bell Shot in front.

Dance In The Storm won at 3.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Bell Shot

Prominent · 6

Midnight StrikeDance In The StormGoldmoyneSujetA War EagleSilky Wilkie

Midfield · 3

Arctic ThunderRare ChangePietro

Hold Up · 4

Spangled MacCrimson SpiritMiami MatrixHuscal

Bell Shot takes them along as the sole confirmed front runner, setting a sustainable gallop without early pressure. Behind him, six horses (Sujet, Dance In The Storm, Midnight Strike, Silky Wilkie, A War Eagle, Goldmoyne) will create congestion in the prominent positions, leading to inevitable traffic problems turning for home. The large hold-up brigade including Miami Matrix, Arctic Thunder, Crimson Spirit, Spangled Mac, Pietro, Rare Change and Huscal will need significant luck in running on Chester's tight circuit. This race strongly favours prominent racers who can secure a clean passage early and avoid the late scramble for racing room.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Traffic Chaos

45% probability

If the six prominent horses create a wall behind Bell Shot and bunch up approaching the home turn

The hold-up horses get blocked and those with early positioning dominate the finish. Clean journeys from the prominent group prove decisive on Chester's unique layout.

SujetDance In The StormA War EagleGoldmoyne

Bell Shot Wire Job

25% probability

If Bell Shot gets an uncontested lead and kicks clear turning for home

The front runner exploits the lack of early pace pressure and holds off late challengers who come too late. His stamina from longer trips and tactical advantage prove crucial.

Bell ShotDance In The StormSujetA War Eagle

Hold-Up Hero Lucky

20% probability

If the prominent horses come back to Bell Shot early and create a fast pace that sets up the race for closers

The strong early gallop finds out the prominent horses and allows the best hold-up performers with clean runs to surge late. Class tells in the final furlong.

PietroCrimson SpiritMiami MatrixRare Change

Complete Pace Collapse

10% probability

If Bell Shot goes too slow early and gets swamped by the prominent group before halfway

A tactical mess develops with no genuine pace, turning it into a sprint finish where the best turn of foot wins. The race becomes a lottery decided by position at the furlong pole.

Dance In The StormPietroCrimson SpiritMiami Matrix

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for Bell Shot getting loose on the lead - if uncontested he could steal this from the front

WATCH

Monitor the prominent group (Sujet, Dance In The Storm, A War Eagle, Goldmoyne) for early positioning battles that could compromise them all

NOTE

Pietro and Crimson Spirit need watching for clean passages - both have the class but need racing room at Chester

WATCH

Dance In The Storm's tendency to race too freely could be amplified after 221 days off under Oisin Murphy

NOTE

First-time headgear on Bell Shot (blinkers) and Huscal (tongue-tie) could significantly alter their performances

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 6 May 2026.

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