Maxxum won at 4.33 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 3
MaxxumLook To The WestMount Frisco
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 0
None
Hold Up · 2
Dee CapoAlong The Way
Maxxum, Look To The West, and Mount Frisco will ensure a strong gallop from the start, with all three natural front runners unlikely to give each other an easy lead. The pace will be genuine throughout this 2m4f chase on soft ground, stretching the field and testing stamina reserves. With three confirmed pace-setters and only two hold-up horses (Dee Capo and Along The Way), the early tempo will be demanding. This setup strongly favours hold-up horses — the genuine pace will string out the field and allow closers to pick up the pieces.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-up horses dominate
55% probability
If the three front runners go too fast early and tire
The strong early pace will take its toll on Maxxum, Look To The West and Mount Frisco, allowing the two hold-up horses to come through with late runs. Dee Capo has the class advantage with an OR of 150 and should benefit most from the predicted pace collapse.
Dee CapoAlong The WayMount FriscoLook To The West
B
Front runner survives
25% probability
If one of the leaders gets first run and maintains kick
Maxxum or Look To The West could use their class edge to break clear before the closers can respond effectively. The winner would need to be the most economical of the three pace-setters to have enough left for the finish.
MaxxumLook To The WestDee CapoMount Frisco
C
Mount Frisco rebounds
15% probability
If Mount Frisco improves sharply from last disappointing effort
Despite his lower rating, Mount Frisco's recent Gowran win and quick return suggest connections are confident of a bounce-back performance. His front-running style could steal a march if the other pace-setters neutralize each other.
Mount FriscoMaxxumLook To The WestDee Capo
D
Pace collapses completely
5% probability
If all three front runners tie up badly in the closing stages
The demanding early pace on soft ground could see all pace-setters struggle home, leaving Along The Way to benefit despite his modest ability. This would require a complete pace meltdown but is possible given the setup.
Along The WayDee CapoMount FriscoMaxxum
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch for Maxxum and Look To The West setting unsustainable fractions early as neither will want to give the other an easy lead.
WATCH
Monitor Mount Frisco's jumping after his disappointing effort here last time - any early mistakes would end his chances quickly.
NOTE
Check if Dee Capo travels smoothly in behind - his hold-up style needs the race to unfold as expected to be effective.
WATCH
Look for Along The Way to be niggled along early to stay in touch as his modest ability could see him detached if not positioned well.
NOTE
Watch the pace through the first mile - if it's not genuinely strong, the front runners' chances improve significantly.
5:00 — KEP Italia Handicap Chase
2m7½f · Soft · HCAP · 17 runners
Made In The Woods to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Mount Shenshan and Is Charlie Around and Long Road led; the map had Made In The Woods in front.
Roc My Haarth won at 7.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently.
4 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Made In The Woods
Prominent · 7
RusheenIs Charlie AroundSnow PuntMy CullenBaldur's GateRoc My HaarthReve Inoui
Midfield · 4
Mount ShenshanCarlas Big JimWithout ExceptionLove Like This
Hold Up · 5
The Rebel CountyRhythmic TuneNorth Of NashvilleWyoming BabyLong Road
Made In The Woods will attempt to lead but faces no real pressure early, creating a sustainable gallop that suits patient types. The seven prominent runners (Baldur's Gate, Mount Shenshan, Is Charlie Around, My Cullen, Rusheen, Carlas Big Jim, Roc My Haarth, Snow Punt, Reve Inoui) will create traffic congestion approaching the business end, with scrimmaging likely from 3 furlongs out as they jostle for position. This leaves a clear path for the six hold-up horses (Rhythmic Tune, North Of Nashville, Long Road, The Rebel County, Without Exception, Wyoming Baby) to make their challenge in cleaner air. This setup strongly favours hold-up horses — the controlled pace will leave them with plenty to aim at and the prominent pack will create interference.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
55% probability
If the pace stays controlled and the prominent pack creates traffic problems as expected
The patient horses will have too much ammunition late and sweep past the struggling prominent group. Wyoming Baby, Rhythmic Tune and The Rebel County can exploit their tactical advantage with clean runs.
Wyoming BabyRhythmic TuneThe Rebel CountyNorth Of Nashville
B
Prominent Pack Prevails
25% probability
If the prominent runners can organize themselves and avoid significant interference
One of the well-positioned prominent horses will kick clear before the hold-up horses can respond. Is Charlie Around or Snow Punt have the class to capitalize on their forward positions.
Is Charlie AroundSnow PuntRusheenMount Shenshan
C
Made In The Woods Steals It
12% probability
If no horse applies serious pressure to the leader throughout
The front runner will have saved enough energy to resist the late challenges, particularly on this stamina-testing trip. Made In The Woods gets a soft lead and finds extra when challenged.
Made In The WoodsLong RoadWithout ExceptionRhythmic Tune
D
Complete Pace Collapse
8% probability
If the prominent horses go too fast trying to catch Made In The Woods early
The field will come back to the most patient finishers who were held up furthest off the pace. The Rebel County and Without Exception will benefit from an overly aggressive middle section.
The Rebel CountyWithout ExceptionNorth Of NashvilleLove Like This
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Made In The Woods could get such an easy lead that he proves impossible to peg back despite moderate recent form
WATCH
Traffic problems likely to develop between Is Charlie Around, Snow Punt and Rusheen as they converge 3 furlongs out
NOTE
Wyoming Baby's tendency to fade in finish could be crucial given the stamina demands of this 2m7½f trip
WATCH
Carlas Big Jim has no declared jockey which suggests stable problems and makes him a non-runner risk
NOTE
Mount Shenshan wearing headgear for first time after string of poor runs could signal significant improvement expected
5:30 — KEP Italia Maiden Hurdle
2m3½f · Soft · MDN · 12 runners
Drombane to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Kaiser De Chanay led; the map had Drombane in front.
Kaiser De Chanay won at 2.38 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Drombane
Prominent · 2
Lord Of The LockeFabhcun
Midfield · 5
Lord De ChoiselDeebertCourageous CleoSam's FavouriteWildhorserider
Hold Up · 4
Shine BrightKaiser De ChanayKeep Em QuiteLunar Majesty
Drombane will take them along from the front as the sole confirmed leader, setting a sustainable gallop over this extended trip on soft ground. With no obvious pace pressure from the field full of hold-up merchants like Kaiser De Chanay, Shine Bright, and Keep Em Quite, plus prominent runners Fabhcun and Lord Of The Locke sitting in behind, Drombane can dictate terms throughout. The lack of early pace will see the field bunch up turning for home, creating a tactical finish where positioning and timing become crucial. This setup strongly favours the front runner and prominent racers — the soft pace allows them to control their effort and kick clear when the hold-up horses are still getting organized.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Drombane Controls Throughout
45% probability
If Drombane gets an easy lead and times his effort perfectly from the front
Paul Townend can dictate every fraction and kick clear when the field is still getting organized behind him. The Mullins runner's class edge shows when he's allowed to use his tactical speed.
DrombaneFabhcunKaiser De ChanayLord Of The Locke
B
Prominent Pair Strike
30% probability
If Fabhcun and Lord Of The Locke track Drombane closely and pounce late
The Elliott and Byrnes runners can use their handy positions to challenge the leader in the final furlong when he's done his work. Their fresher finishes prove decisive in a tactical finish.
FabhcunLord Of The LockeDrombaneKaiser De Chanay
C
Hold-Up Hero Emerges
20% probability
If the pace becomes even slower and the field compacts further
Kaiser De Chanay or Keep Em Quite can use their superior finishing kicks from off the pace. The bunched field suits horses with turn of foot who can weave through traffic.
Kaiser De ChanayKeep Em QuiteDrombaneFabhcun
D
Shock Outsider Strikes
5% probability
If the favorites fail to fire and traffic causes chaos
Lord De Choisel or Deebert can capitalize on a messy finish where class doesn't tell. Fresh legs and a clear run prove more valuable than ratings.
Lord De ChoiselDeebertLunar MajestyCourageous Cleo
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Drombane's jumping under pressure - hasn't won for nearly two months and needs to handle Townend's tactical ride
WATCH
Kaiser De Chanay wearing first-time tongue tie which could sharpen him up significantly from his handy mark
NOTE
Lord De Choisel with apprentice Paddy Cody taking 7lbs off - unusual booking often signals stable confidence
WATCH
Keep Em Quite was pulled up last time which raises fitness concerns despite trainer persisting
NOTE
Fabhcun and Courageous Cleo both from Elliott's yard running different tactics - stable may fancy the prominent runner more
6:00 — KEP Italia Superior Helmets Maiden Hurdle
2m · Soft · MDN · 7 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
6:30 — KEP Italia Mares Handicap Hurdle
2m · Soft · HCAP · 17 runners
Concert Party likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Liss Eile and Volez Vous led; the map had Concert Party in front.
Ellies Rock won at 4.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.
3 of 16 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Concert Party
Prominent · 1
Evelyn
Midfield · 10
Might Be The OneGrace's LegacyOde To JoyLiss EileVolez VousBallinearla GirlFinnicky FillyWild Wild WindQuestion AskedEllies Rock
Hold Up · 5
Bearami CreekDolly WatkinsMidnight EaglePowerful RosieCry Before Dawn
Concert Party is the lone confirmed front runner in this large field and will dictate proceedings from the outset, with Evelyn likely to track in second early on. With 15 hold-up horses behind them, Concert Party can set a sustainable tempo without early pressure, potentially getting an easy lead through the first mile. The pace will be steady rather than strong early, but the sheer volume of hold-up horses means a cavalry charge from the back straight as traffic problems develop. This setup strongly favours prominent runners who can track the pace and avoid the inevitable late traffic — hold-up horses will struggle to get clear runs in time.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Pace Tracking Victory
45% probability
If Concert Party sets steady fractions and prominent runners avoid trouble
The early leaders get first run on the field while hold-up horses get shuffled back in traffic. Evelyn and any others who can sit handy benefit from clear sailing while the pack behind struggles for room.
Concert PartyEvelynDolly WatkinsCry Before Dawn
B
Late Charge Succeeds
30% probability
If the pace becomes genuinely strong or Concert Party weakens turning in
The hold-up brigade gets organized despite the numbers and the best stayers come through late. Superior horses like Bearami Creek and Midnight Eagle use their class to navigate traffic and finish strongest.
If favorites hit trouble and an outsider gets the perfect trip tracking Concert Party
A mid-range horse sitting in the right position capitalizes on a clean run while higher-rated rivals get compromised. The pace setup allows a tactical ride to triumph over pure ability.
Might Be The OneBallinearla GirlEllies RockLiss Eile
D
Complete Chaos
10% probability
If Concert Party goes too fast early or there are multiple fallers at hurdles
The race becomes a scramble where anything can happen and surviving horses with stamina prevail. Form goes out the window as only those who avoid trouble and stay on their feet matter.
Volez VousOde To JoyGrace's LegacyPowerful Rosie
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Concert Party must handle the 2m trip as previous wins came over shorter - any signs of weakening turning in could collapse the pace scenario
WATCH
Traffic problems are inevitable with 15 hold-up horses - watch for which runners get clear runs versus those trapped on the inner
NOTE
First-time headgear on Finnicky Filly, Evelyn and Cry Before Dawn suggests trainers expect improvement from these three
WATCH
Dolly Watkins running back after just 2 days indicates strong stable confidence but quick turnaround is unusual
NOTE
Multiple apprentice and conditional jockeys booked suggests several trainers are not fully confident in their chances
7:00 — KEP Italia Handicap Hurdle
2m · Soft · HCAP · 14 runners
Marlpark to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Marlpark led, as the map showed.
Blue Train won at 3.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up.
3 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Marlpark
Prominent · 5
Stay In The GameTingarran ExpressGino BellaKeiths BoyElbow Lane
Midfield · 4
Silent SelectorMarket ReadyWise ManOld Kenmare
Hold Up · 4
Our Uncle JackPalace BoyBlue TrainCrohan Lady
Marlpark will make the running from the outset with his natural front-running style, likely getting an uncontested lead early. Stay In The Game, Tingarran Express, Gino Bella and Keiths Boy will track in prominent positions but none are confirmed pace pressers. The large field of hold-up horses including Palace Boy, Our Uncle Jack, Silent Selector, Blue Train and Market Ready will settle towards the rear, creating a strung-out field as Marlpark dictates terms. This setup strongly favours hold-up horses — the pace will be genuine enough to set up a finish for closers, and the field will stretch out over 2 miles on soft ground.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
55% probability
If Marlpark sets steady fractions without early pressure from prominent runners
The lone leader will come back to the field in the straight as the soft ground takes its toll, allowing the army of hold-up horses to close strongly. Palace Boy and Our Uncle Jack have the class and tactical advantage to capitalize on this patient ride setup.
Palace BoyOur Uncle JackBlue TrainMarket Ready
B
Prominent Tracker Strikes
25% probability
If Stay In The Game or Tingarran Express apply early pressure to Marlpark
The pace quickens beyond sustainable levels, stretching the field and creating gaps for the prominently-raced horses to exploit before the hold-up brigade can get organized. Tingarran Express has been running well lately and can bridge the gap between pace and closers.
Tingarran ExpressStay In The GameGino BellaKeiths Boy
C
Front Runner Survives
15% probability
If Marlpark gets completely uncontested fractions and kicks clear turning in
The leader builds an unassailable advantage on horses that are poorly positioned to respond quickly enough over this shorter trip. Marlpark's recent second at soft Tramore shows he handles these conditions and can sustain a gallop.
MarlparkGino BellaStay In The GameTingarran Express
D
Pace Collapses Early
5% probability
If multiple prominent runners converge on Marlpark before halfway
The early burn-out creates a messy, stop-start affair that suits nothing in particular but may favor the most talented on ratings. Our Uncle Jack's class could shine through tactical chaos given his recent winning form.
Our Uncle JackPalace BoySilent SelectorBlue Train
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Marlpark must be monitored for early pace — if he goes too fast early the race falls apart tactically
WATCH
Palace Boy returning from 115-day break with amateur jockey could be rusty despite previous winning form
NOTE
Our Uncle Jack's recent winning form and preference for testing ground makes him the one to beat
WATCH
Multiple first-time tongue-ties on Crohan Lady and Gino Bella suggest stable concerns about breathing
NOTE
Stay In The Game represents the Hanlon stable who are running well but this horse has been off since August
7:30 — Happy Easter To All Our Patrons INH Flat Race
2m3½f · Soft · DEFAULT · 10 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.