Max MeridiusFrontier RoseBenzineKeep It TogetherDontdooddson
Hold Up · 5
Small BucksHatfield HammerTimurshahBoogie InthejungleTheanniversary Man
Marlpark is the confirmed front runner and will dictate terms from the start, with Tingarran Express, Gino Bella, Gentle Annie and Mon Sheriffe likely to settle prominently behind him. With only one genuine pace-setter in a field of 17, Marlpark can control the tempo without pressure and kick for home when ready. The large field of hold-up horses including Hatfield Hammer, Small Bucks and Dontdooddson will need the race to develop into a sprint finish to be effective. This setup strongly favours prominent racers and the lone leader, as they can dictate a sustainable pace and have positional advantage when the field bunches up in the straight.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Marlpark Controls Tempo
45% probability
If Marlpark gets an uncontested lead and the prominent horses don't pressure him early
The leader can dictate a steady pace before quickening, while the prominent horses get first run on the packed hold-up brigade. Late runners struggle to make ground through the large field bunching in the straight.
MarlparkTingarran ExpressGino BellaGentle Annie
B
Prominent Pressure Cooker
30% probability
If Tingarran Express and Gino Bella press Marlpark early and create a stronger gallop
The increased pace will suit the more progressive prominent types who can travel well before striking, while Marlpark may crack under pressure and hold-up horses get a better target. The race becomes more tactical with multiple pace angles.
Gino BellaHatfield HammerSmall BucksIshan
C
Early Pace Collapse
15% probability
If Marlpark goes too slow early and the race becomes a sprint from the back of the last hurdle
The hold-up horses finally get their preferred scenario with a slow pace turning into a dash, allowing class to tell. Prominent horses may find themselves flat-footed when the pace suddenly lifts.
Small BucksHatfield HammerDontdooddsonBenzine
D
Traffic Chaos
10% probability
If the large field causes significant interference in the straight as runners fan out
Horses drawn wide or with clear runs benefit most while those trapped on the rail struggle to get daylight. Running style becomes secondary to position and luck in running.
Urban WarMon SheriffeIshanTimurshah
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Marlpark could get an uncontested lead with his front-running style and dictate the entire race from pillar to post
WATCH
Traffic problems likely in straight with 17 runners fanning out, watch for horses getting clear runs wide
NOTE
Several hold-up horses carry warnings for fading in finish including Small Bucks, Benzine and Frontier Rose
WATCH
Multiple horses returning from long layoffs including Hatfield Hammer (197d), Gentle Annie (213d) and Timurshah (190d)
NOTE
Theanniversary Man is first reserve and may not run, which would reduce field size and tactical complications
6:10 — Bulmers Berries Handicap Hurdle (Div II)
2m½f · Good · HCAP · 17 runners
Must Meet Cecil likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Must Meet Cecil led, as the map showed.
Getaway Henry won at 23.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
8 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Must Meet Cecil
Prominent · 5
Fedneys ParkYou Done WellKp's LadyofknockThe Cheeky PupMagnificent Era
Midfield · 6
He Who DaresGetaway HenryWestern OperaCrypto CrashFalcon ParkSidiriya
Hold Up · 5
Go To TownRogue SeaI'm FlatteredBoltlanderLiss Eile
Must Meet Cecil and You Done Well will set a sustainable early gallop with Kp's Ladyofknock, The Cheeky Pup and Fedneys Park tracking prominently. The pace will be honest but not breakneck with 17 runners spread across 2m½f on good ground. The large field creates natural compression and positioning battles, while multiple hold-up horses (Go To Town, Getaway Henry, I'm Flattered, Rogue Sea, Falcon Park, Sidiriya, Liss Eile) will look to time late challenges. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can pick off tired leaders and benefit from the strong gallop over this stamina-testing trip.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
65% probability
If the pace proves testing enough to set up the closers properly
The sustained gallop weakens the prominent runners in the final half-mile, allowing patient hold-up types to sweep past tired leaders. Horses with tactical speed who can pick their way through traffic will have decisive advantages.
Getaway HenryGo To TownI'm FlatteredSidiriya
B
Prominent Runners Hang On
20% probability
If the early pace is more sedate than expected with less pressure
The leaders get an easier time of it and can dictate terms, making it harder for hold-up horses to close the gap effectively. Those who race handily without over-exerting early gain crucial positional advantages.
You Done WellKp's LadyofknockMust Meet CecilMagnificent Era
C
Traffic Chaos Benefits Outsiders
10% probability
If the large field creates significant interference and positioning problems in the straight
Well-positioned mid-division horses avoid the worst of the trouble while market leaders get shuffled back or blocked for runs. Horses drawn well and ridden with urgency can capitalize on others' misfortune.
Falcon ParkCrypto CrashLiss EileWestern Opera
D
Front-Runner Steals It
5% probability
If Must Meet Cecil gets an uncontested lead and the field switches off behind
The confirmed pace-setter gets first run on the field and builds an unassailable lead when the chasers realize too late. His drop in class combined with tactical advantage proves decisive despite recent poor form.
Must Meet CecilThe Cheeky PupFedneys ParkBoltlander
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Must Meet Cecil could steal this if getting uncontested lead - watch if others allow him easy time in front
WATCH
Rogue Sea making stable debut for Donoghue after 243-day break - any market support would be significant
WATCH
Multiple horses carry fading warnings (I'm Flattered, Kp's Ladyofknock, The Cheeky Pup, Fedneys Park) - pace crucial for their chances
NOTE
Several horses returning from layoffs including I'm Flattered (95 days) and Magnificent Era (221 days) may need the run
NOTE
Large field of 17 over 2m½f at Clonmel creates positioning challenges - draw and early pace crucial for hold-up horses
6:45 — Talbot Hotel Clonmel (C & G) Maiden Hurdle
2m½f · Good · MDN · 15 runners
Welcome Back to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
This Songisforyou led; the map had Welcome Back in front.
Holy Joe won at 26.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it.
3 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Welcome Back
Prominent · 1
It's All Clear
Midfield · 9
Riverstown BoyQuest With CopperCare To DifferThetwocharliesHoly JoeChina GrillSecret OrderSlowdownbarneyIt's Time To Leave
Hold Up · 4
WhoyougonnacallThis SongisforyouIn The TrenchesMarket Ready
Welcome Back is the sole confirmed front runner in this 15-runner maiden hurdle and should get an uncontested lead, setting a sustainable gallop without pressure. The large field includes predominantly hold-up horses like Holy Joe, This Songisforyou, In The Trenches, and Market Ready, with only It's All Clear likely to race prominently behind Welcome Back. This tactical setup strongly favours prominent racers and those who can travel well in behind, as they can position ideally off the lone leader without getting caught in traffic problems that will plague the many hold-up horses in the big field. The race shape clearly benefits horses who can race handily rather than from the rear.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Tracker Wins
45% probability
If It's All Clear jumps fluently and travels well behind Welcome Back.
The improving bumper winner can utilise the perfect tactical position in second/third, avoiding traffic problems that will trap the hold-up brigade. His recent third place form at this course gives him a solid platform to build from on hurdles debut.
It's All ClearMarket ReadyIn The TrenchesHoly Joe
B
Leader Goes All Way
25% probability
If Welcome Back improves significantly from his disappointing recent effort and gets an easy lead.
The front runner faces no pressure early and can dictate terms throughout, potentially finding enough improvement to fend off late challengers. His point-to-point win shows he has ability when right.
Welcome BackIt's All ClearMarket ReadyThis Songisforyou
C
Hold-Up Horse Overcomes Traffic
20% probability
If one of the higher-rated hold-up horses gets a clean run through the field.
Market Ready or This Songisforyou could have the class edge if avoiding the inevitable traffic problems, with their experience advantage telling late. The pace scenario suits them if they can navigate the crowded field.
Market ReadyThis SongisforyouIn The TrenchesHoly Joe
D
Maiden Shock Winner
10% probability
If the pace collapses completely and a lightly-raced runner finds dramatic improvement.
Quest With Copper or one of the point-to-point graduates could spring a surprise if the race falls apart tactically. The large field and potential lack of pace could create chaos that suits an outsider.
Quest With CopperCare To DifferRiverstown BoyIt's All Clear
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Welcome Back could get such an easy lead that he proves hard to peg back if finding any improvement from recent poor form.
WATCH
Traffic problems are inevitable with so many hold-up horses in a 15-runner field, potentially causing interference in the straight.
WATCH
It's All Clear jumping on hurdles debut will be crucial given his prominent racing style leaves little margin for error.
NOTE
This Songisforyou carrying a penalty after 264 days off may need this run despite his higher class credentials.
NOTE
Several lightly-raced point-to-point graduates could find significant improvement but most have shown disappointing recent form.
7:20 — Bulmers Strawberry & Lime Hurdle
2m3½f · Good · DEFAULT · 6 runners
King Of Kingsfield likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Thecompanysergeant led; the map had King Of Kingsfield in front.
Thecompanysergeant won at 1.36 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
King Of Kingsfield
Prominent · 1
Thecompanysergeant
Midfield · 2
Encanto BrunoCrohan Lady
Hold Up · 2
Farren GloryMighty Tom
King Of Kingsfield will take them along at a sensible gallop with Thecompanysergeant and Encanto Bruno tracking prominently behind. The pace will be sustainable rather than searching given the small field and limited early speed, creating a tactical affair that builds gradually. Hold-up horses Farren Glory and Mighty Tom will get the patient ride they need before launching late challenges. This race shape strongly favours the closers and hold-up horses who can benefit from the steady gallop and time their runs perfectly.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Closers Take Control
45% probability
If the pace stays modest and the field bunches into the straight
The hold-up horses get ideal positioning to unleash finishing kicks while the prominent racers find little to aim at. Farren Glory and Mighty Tom can exploit their class edge with well-timed challenges.
Farren GloryMighty TomKing Of KingsfieldThecompanysergeant
B
Prominent Persistence Pays
30% probability
If King Of Kingsfield maintains strong gallop throughout without folding
The early leaders sustain their effort and the closers struggle to make up ground on ground that's riding a touch slower. King Of Kingsfield's proven stamina and Thecompanysergeant's recent Ballinrobe form prove decisive.
King Of KingsfieldThecompanysergeantFarren GloryEncanto Bruno
C
Mighty Tom Returns
15% probability
If the veteran shows he's retained his ability after 607 days off
His superior rating tells and the patient tactics suit perfectly as he sweeps past tiring leaders. The extended break becomes irrelevant as class shines through in a slowly-run contest.
Mighty TomFarren GloryKing Of KingsfieldThecompanysergeant
D
Encanto Bruno Upset
10% probability
If the Cheltenham winner rediscovers his 2023 peak form
His prominent style catches the closers napping while avoiding the sustained pressure that might undo the leaders. The step back to hurdles from disappointing chase form sparks revival.
Encanto BrunoKing Of KingsfieldFarren GloryThecompanysergeant
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Mighty Tom's fitness after 607 days absence - any signs of ring-rustiness or breathing issues will end his chances quickly
WATCH
King Of Kingsfield's jumping fluency early on as any hesitation will compromise his front-running tactics immediately
NOTE
Farren Glory's position turning for home - needs to be within striking distance to utilize his proven finishing kick
WATCH
Thecompanysergeant's stamina reserves in final furlong as this trip tests his limits beyond previous winning distances
NOTE
Encanto Bruno's jumping rhythm throughout - any mistakes will derail his chances of staying competitive with these ratings
7:55 — Bulmers Zero Handicap Hurdle
2m3½f · Good · HCAP · 17 runners
Ned In The Park likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Ned In The Park led, as the map showed.
Global Skies won at 4.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
9 of 16 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Ned In The Park
Prominent · 6
ChurchwardenCoded WelderThe Monkey PolePortarlingtonHidalgo Des MottesStonecarthy
In For The NightInthenickoftimeMister VicTakarengoLe Diablo
Ned In The Park stands out as the only confirmed front runner in this 17-runner field, likely to dominate the early pace with Churchwarden, Coded Welder and Hidalgo Des Mottes tracking prominently. The sustainable gallop suits the prominent racers who can position handy without pressure, while the large field creates tactical complications for the hold-up horses at the back. This pace scenario strongly favours prominent racers who can travel sweetly in behind Ned In The Park and strike turning for home, rather than hold-up horses who face traffic problems in such a big field.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Racers Dominate
60% probability
If Ned In The Park sets a steady tempo without getting away from the field
The handy horses can travel comfortably and have first run on the leaders, with hold-up horses struggling to get clear runs in the big field. Coded Welder and Global Skies can capitalise on their tactical positioning.
Coded WelderGlobal SkiesHidalgo Des MottesThe Monkey Pole
B
Front Runner Gets Away
20% probability
If Ned In The Park is allowed an easy lead and builds an unassailable advantage
The lack of early pace pressure allows him to dictate completely, with only the handiest of his rivals able to respond when he quickens. His course form and tactical advantage prove decisive.
Ned In The ParkChurchwardenCoded WelderPortarlington
C
Hold-Up Horse Weaves Through
12% probability
If the pace becomes truly run and the front runners weaken significantly
A patient hold-up horse with a strong finish can navigate through the tiring leaders in the closing stages. Inthenickoftime's class and Global Skies' recent C&D second make them the most likely beneficiaries.
InthenickoftimeGlobal SkiesLe DiabloBoujee
D
Pace Collapses Completely
8% probability
If no one wants to make the running early and they crawl along
A messy, slowly-run affair turns into a sprint finish where class tells and positioning becomes crucial. The better-handicapped horses can capitalise on the tactical free-for-all.
Le DiabloHidalgo Des MottesGlobal SkiesInthenickoftime
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Ned In The Park could get an uncontested lead with no other obvious pace makers in this big field
WATCH
Several runners including Inthenickoftime, Boujee and In For The Night are returning from lengthy layoffs questioning their fitness
NOTE
Multiple horses including Coded Welder, Churchwarden and Portarlington are making stable debuts which adds uncertainty to their chances
WATCH
The big 17-runner field creates significant traffic problems for hold-up horses like Le Diablo and Takarengo who need clear runs
NOTE
Ground conditions remain consistently good across the card which should suit the majority of these runners
8:30 — Paul Kavanagh Memorial Handicap Hurdle
2m6½f · Good · HCAP · 19 runners
Fire Coral to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Rizedda and Fire Coral led, as the map showed.
Sallap won at 13.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
9 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Fire Coral
Prominent · 6
Last NoteOogum BoogumIt's Time AgainRizeddaThewaybackhomeLily Milan
Midfield · 6
Love Like ThisSpellacy's CrossThree County StarMiss DonnaQueen KulinaAppian Way
Hold Up · 6
CulligWhere Are You NowWhoswhointhezooNashville NotionsZolpharineSallap
Fire Coral is the only confirmed front-runner and should get an uncontested lead with It's Time Again, Oogum Boogum, Lily Milan and Last Note in the prominent positions. The pace will be sustainable rather than demanding given the extended trip and lack of early pressure on Fire Coral. Most of the field are hold-up horses including Zolpharine, Where Are You Now, Nashville Notions and Whoswhointhezoo who will need the race to develop. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can track the pace and kick from the final hurdle, as the lone leader may be vulnerable to strong finishers if the pace is too steady.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Sustainable Pace Battle
45% probability
If Fire Coral sets an even gallop and prominent runners get first run
The moderate early pace allows prominent horses to conserve energy and strike decisively from the home turn. Hold-up horses struggle to make up ground as the race becomes tactical rather than a stamina test.
It's Time AgainOogum BoogumLast NoteThewaybackhome
B
Hold-Up Horse Surge
30% probability
If the early pace is too slow and backmarkers get room to challenge
Fire Coral's soft lead creates opportunities for strong late finishers who can produce sustained runs up the hill. The in-form hold-up horses capitalize on the weak tempo with decisive moves.
ZolpharineWhere Are You NowNashville NotionsQueen Kulina
C
Front-Runner Dominance
15% probability
If Fire Coral jumps well and kicks clear turning for home
The leader's class tells as she utilizes her uncontested position to build an unassailable advantage. Chasers struggle to close the gap as Fire Coral's stamina reserves prove decisive on the extended trip.
Fire CoralSallapIt's Time AgainLove Like This
D
Pace Collapse Chaos
10% probability
If Fire Coral stops or falls and the field bunches entering the straight
The race becomes a messy sprint finish with no clear pace-setter throughout most of the contest. Horses that can adapt quickly to the changed dynamics and have tactical speed benefit from the scramble.
Miss DonnaThree County StarRizeddaAppian Way
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Fire Coral jumping - any mistake early could eliminate the only pace-setter and create chaotic race dynamics
WATCH
It's Time Again stamina - pulled-up 10 days ago so any sign of distress approaching final hurdle is significant
NOTE
Zolpharine position turning in - in-form hold-up horse needs room to unleash finishing kick from final half-mile
WATCH
Rizedda and Three County Star fading pattern - both show tendency to weaken in finish so watch for early signs
NOTE
Lily Milan and Whoswhointhezoo headgear impact - both wearing equipment changes that could transform their performance
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.