Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
5:45 — DNG John Ryan Auctioneer Maiden Hurdle
2m1f · Good · MDN · 20 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
6:15 — Kelkab Ltd. Handicap Hurdle (0-100)
2m1f · Good · HCAP · 26 runners
Gino Bella likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Gino Bella led, as the map showed.
Gino Bella won at 4.33 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
10 of 23 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Gino Bella
Prominent · 4
CloudioJay Pee MGetaway HenryStily
Midfield · 13
Dictionary CornerFootstepstogloryMaxicourtLet It SettleTheanniversary ManBob The BuilderDrumadeiseBruise HillLunar LandscapeEl RegaloMaralingaDoyen OgAvandra
Hold Up · 8
EaglewoodSmall BucksNorthern RulerMiss GitanaLaurie BlueRay GunKelly's CosmosUrban War
Gino Bella is the one confirmed front-runner in a 26-runner field, and with no genuine challenger for the lead, Alan O'Sullivan can dictate a controlled, unhurried gallop from the front — a sustainable pace that is unlikely to be pressured into anything punishing. Cloudio and Jay Pee M are the most credible prominent horses capable of tracking Gino Bella through the race, while Getaway Henry and Stily add further mid-to-front presence. The field is heavily loaded with hold-up types, but the sheer volume means horses such as Footstepstoglory, Maxicourt, Let It Settle, Theanniversary Man, and Bob The Builder — all true closers by nature — cannot get to the rear of a 26-runner field in their natural role and will be shuffled into a midfield they do not truly own. With one front-runner setting a measured pace on good ground over 2m1f, this race shape strongly favours prominent horses that can travel close to the steady tempo and produce their effort when the leader quickens, rather than closers who will face a wall of traffic and a pace that is unlikely to soften the ground for a sustained late surge.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Gino Bella Controls Cleanly
48% probability
If Gino Bella jumps fluently and is allowed to bowl along unchallenged, setting a true but sustainable tempo that suits those tracking closely.
Gino Bella dictates from the front on a good surface over a trip he has placed over before, controlling the fractions and delivering a measured gallop that asks questions only in the straight; prominent horses that have tracked within two or three lengths are best positioned to pounce. This is the dominant shape given the absence of any pace rival, and it rewards those who can travel prominently without getting into a battle.
Gino BellaGetaway HenryCloudioStily
B
Prominent Pair Grab It
28% probability
If Cloudio or Getaway Henry track the leader throughout and Gino Bella weakens in the straight, allowing a prominent challenger to collar him.
With the pace modest and controlled, a horse that has sat second or third throughout can produce a clean run to the line without needing to navigate traffic; Getaway Henry's recent win at this trip on good ground and Cloudio's form in similar conditions make both credible beneficiaries. The steady gallop means stamina reserves are intact for a prolonged duel in the straight rather than a sprint finish.
Getaway HenryCloudioJay Pee MStily
C
Midfield Horse Splits Them
16% probability
If the pace is slow enough to compress the field and a horse mapped to midfield finds a gap in the straight to mount an unexpected challenge.
A modest tempo in a 26-runner field can create a concertina effect where mid-division horses are closer than their map position suggests at the top of the straight; Eaglewood, fresh from a 277-day absence but with good-ground form, or Theanniversary Man, who has won twice recently, could capitalise if the gaps open. However, the redistribution of true hold-up horses into this zone means genuine closers are competing for the same ground, making clean passages harder to find.
If the pace is surprisingly strong and the field strings out enough for genuine hold-up horses to pick off tired rivals late.
This scenario requires a materially faster gallop than the one lone front-runner is expected to set, and the bulk of the true closers — Footstepstoglory, Let It Settle, Maxicourt — are redistributed out of their natural rear-of-field role, reducing their effectiveness. Even if the pace quickens, 26 runners on good ground over 2m1f is a congested environment that rarely rewards horses coming from the back, and none of the true hold-up types here have the form figures to justify confidence.
6:50 — Sign Up To Our Newsletter Mares Handicap Hurdle
2m4f · Good · HCAP · 18 runners
Brosna Queen likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Arctic Flame won at 7.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
6 of 16 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Brosna Queen
Prominent · 6
Arctic FlameSurfin UsaEarly BirdSomersby RoostDiamond TippGlitz And Glamour
Midfield · 6
CostanuciLakewood RoseBallinearla GirlTudoristaLoughrask JetLiss Eile
Hold Up · 5
PreparationsBossy BirdFelicity SmoakEvelynEllens Pride
Brosna Queen is the single confirmed front-runner in an 18-runner field and, crucially, faces no genuine rival willing to seriously contest the lead — she should dictate from the front at a controlled, sustainable gallop on Good ground over 2m4f. However, this field is overloaded with prominent-types: Arctic Flame, Surfin Usa, Early Bird, Somersby Roost, Diamond Tipp, and Glitz And Glamour all want to race close to the pace, meaning a scrappy early scramble for position is inevitable behind Brosna Queen, with Costanuci, Lakewood Rose, and Ballinearla Girl — all genuine prominent racers — pushed back into midfield against their natural instincts. The field holds more front-running and prominent types than can all secure their favoured berth, with Arctic Flame, Surfin Usa, and Early Bird best-placed by profile and quality to actually hold prominent ground. With Brosna Queen controlling tempo from the front and a cluster of prominent types burning energy to settle into position, this race shape most rewards a well-handicapped runner that can sit comfortably in the first five, conserve energy through the early jostling, and sustain a quality gallop from the home turn — the prominent profile with tactical ease wins here, not the late closer.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Front Sets Up Prominent
52% probability
If Brosna Queen leads unchallenged at a fair clip and the prominent types settle behind without excessive early burn.
Brosna Queen dictates an honest but manageable tempo, and the horses that track her in the first three to five get the perfect low-energy journey before kicking from two out; the redistribution of Costanuci, Lakewood Rose, and Ballinearla Girl into midfield leaves the genuine prominent slots for the likes of Surfin Usa, Arctic Flame, and Early Bird, all of whom have the class and going form to capitalise.
Surfin UsaArctic FlameEarly BirdSomersby Roost
B
Pace Collapses, Front Pair Clear
22% probability
If the early jostling for position burns out the prominent pack and the leader and one tracking rival steal an unassailable advantage from the home turn.
Brosna Queen's controlled lead becomes a race-winning advantage if the field behind her spends energy sorting positions in the first mile; one horse locked onto her immediately — most likely Arctic Flame or Surfin Usa — gets a free rail to the last and holds on as tired rivals fail to close.
Brosna QueenArctic FlameSurfin UsaEarly Bird
C
Midfield Swoopers Land Late
17% probability
If the early pace is genuinely strong enough to compromise the prominent types and leave the race open for a midfield runner finishing best of all.
A truly hot early gallop caused by multiple prominent types refusing to concede position would string the field out and leave energy-efficient midfielders in the best spot turning for home; Evelyn and Felicity Smoak, though genuine hold-up types, need the front end to have run themselves into the ground, and Diamond Tipp — a natural prominent type with Good-ground form — could benefit if dropped slightly off the pace.
Diamond TippEvelynGlitz And GlamourFelicity Smoak
D
Chaos Scramble, Outsider Profits
9% probability
If the large field produces interference, a false pace, or key fancied runners lose their position badly in the early battle.
With 18 runners, a tight Cork track, and multiple misplaced prominent types shuffled into midfield, a chaotic race where form lines are scrambled is a genuine possibility; a lightly-weighted runner like Somersby Roost — who has won on this ground and distance profile and carries a headgear flag — could take advantage if the market leaders all end up in trouble.
Somersby RoostGlitz And GlamourLakewood RoseBallinearla Girl
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Surfin Usa and Brosna Queen — watch for whether Mullins' runner (Surfin Usa) presses the leader early or settles, as any pressure on Brosna Queen could transform the race tempo dramatically.
WATCH
Costanuci, Lakewood Rose, and Ballinearla Girl — all natural prominent types forced into midfield by field congestion; if any of them push forward aggressively in the first half-mile, expect a flashpoint of pace that disrupts the whole field's rhythm.
WATCH
Diamond Tipp — Jack Kennedy represents a significant jockey upgrade but the horse's Good-ground stats are poor; watch whether Kennedy opts to drop it out rather than take its natural prominent position, which would misalign the style profile further.
NOTE
Felicity Smoak and Preparations — both returning from significant absences under trainer yards with recent strike rates to monitor; a well-being check on both at the start is worthwhile before placing these in any race shape.
NOTE
Glitz And Glamour — the 7lb amateur claim in a field this large could create an early positioning problem if the rider struggles to find a clear run from the prominent draw; watch how she settles in the first three furlongs.
7:25 — Follow Us On X Maiden Hurdle
3m · Good · MDN · 13 runners
Young Doran likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Withabitofluk led; the map had Young Doran in front.
Sound Judgement won at 5.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Young Doran
Prominent · 3
Jeroboam MachinWithabitoflukSound Judgement
Midfield · 5
Star CaveRiverstown BoyMind EraserDeerpark LassieC Pas Possible
Hold Up · 4
The BoysofairhillPegasuslaneHowyasoxAjp Falco
Young Doran is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 13-runner maiden hurdle over 3m at Cork on good ground, and with no other natural lead horse to press or challenge him, he is almost certain to control tempo from the outset. Withabitofluk and Sound Judgement are the other prominent-style runners who will track in his slipstream, while the bulk of the field — including Ajp Falco, The Boysofairhill, Howyasox, and Pegasuslane — are hold-up types who will be detached in the pack through the early stages. With a single uncontested pace-setter over a stamina-sapping 3 miles on good ground, the gallop is likely to be measured rather than searching, meaning the race will be won relatively close to the pace and not by horses coming from the rear. This shape heavily favours prominent-to-lead runners who can conserve energy through a controlled early tempo and quicken off it in the home straight, with true hold-up closers facing a stern test of getting competitive from rear if the tempo never truly punishes those up front.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Lead Holds Firm
62% probability
If Young Doran dictates an uncontested, measured tempo and the prominent trackers lack the finishing surge to collar him.
Young Doran sets a sustainable gallop over the 3m trip with no rival bothering him up front, arriving at the final two hurdles full of running; Sound Judgement and Withabitofluk, tracking closely, are best placed to capitalise if Young Doran flattens out but the lead horse's control gives him a significant advantage.
Young DoranSound JudgementWithabitoflukJeroboam Machin
B
Prominent Tracker Pounces
22% probability
If Young Doran's measured pace leaves him vulnerable late and a close tracker lands a decisive blow jumping the last.
Sound Judgement (Jack Kennedy, Gordon Elliott, proven at 3m+ equivalent trips on good) or Withabitofluk move smoothly past a tiring Young Doran from the second-last; the De Bromhead runner showed a placed effort at 2m4f on good and has the fitness and headgear to be sharper this time.
Sound JudgementWithabitoflukJeroboam MachinC Pas Possible
C
Midfield Horse Emerges
11% probability
If the pace is genuinely slow enough to compress the field and a midfield runner with latent ability produces a strong late run.
Jeroboam Machin, with two prior hurdle wins and the most experienced winning profile in the field, travels up from a prominent-midfield position and finds enough to close; C Pas Possible, placed on good ground and lightly raced with scope, also represents a type that could benefit from a compressed finish.
Jeroboam MachinC Pas PossibleWithabitoflukSound Judgement
D
Hold-Up Horse Lands Late
5% probability
If something unexpected forces a faster-than-anticipated pace and the field strings out, allowing a genuine hold-up type to pick off rivals late.
Ajp Falco or The Boysofairhill would need a contested, end-to-end gallop to make their hold-up styles pay, but their recent form figures and tendency to fade in the finish make this outcome the least likely in a single-paced affair.
Ajp FalcoThe BoysofairhillHowyasoxPegasuslane
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Young Doran dictates everything from the front — watch whether Shane O'Callaghan (3) presses or allows a crawl, as the tempo he sets will determine whether hold-up horses have any chance of getting competitive.
WATCH
Sound Judgement is the most interesting market mover to monitor given Jack Kennedy's booking and Gordon Elliott's hot 14-day strike rate; if punted into short odds before the off, it signals stable confidence in this step up to 3m on good.
WATCH
Jeroboam Machin's two wins came on soft and heavy ground — watch the pre-race market for any sign the Mullins camp are confident the good ground won't blunt his finishing effort, as it is a genuine question mark over his profile.
NOTE
Withabitofluk runs in hood and tongue-tie for De Bromhead; headgear retained from last run when second at 2m4f on good — no fitness concern but the hood is not new, so do not over-read it as a wind-up angle.
NOTE
Three runners (Mind Eraser, Deerpark Lassie, Star Cave) arrive with significant unknowns — absence, no data, or point-to-point pull-ups — and any one of them drifting sharply in the market pre-race should be noted as a potential indicator of stable pessimism.
8:00 — RBC Brewin Dolphin Hurdle
3m · Good · DEFAULT · 11 runners
Maxxum likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Desert Cave led; the map had Maxxum in front.
Reverend Hubert won at 2.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up.
3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Maxxum
Prominent · 3
Happy JackyTopgun SimmyDa Capo Glory
Midfield · 4
Roi MageLinden ArdenMousey BrownDesert Cave
Hold Up · 3
HewickSmooth TomReverend Hubert
Maxxum is the confirmed front-runner here and, with Jack Kennedy aboard for Gordon Elliott, he is likely to control this at a manageable, sustainable gallop over 3m on Good ground at Cork — there is no meaningful pace rival to force his hand from the front. The hold-up contingent of Hewick, Reverend Hubert, and Smooth Tom will settle in behind, while Happy Jacky and Topgun Simmy are genuine prominent types who will look to track Maxxum closely. This field holds more prominent and hold-up types than the race shape can naturally accommodate — Roi Mage, Linden Arden, and Da Capo Glory are all genuine pace-pressing horses who will be shuffled into midfield positions against their nature, meaning several will race less than ideally. A controlled, honest gallop over this trip on Good ground with one unchallenged leader sets this race up squarely for horses who can race prominently or travel just off the pace and pick up between the last two flights — the prominent-to-midfield profile is the profile to be on.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Maxxum Controls, Pace Horses Strike
62% probability
If Maxxum leads at his own tempo and the race unfolds at a steady-to-honest gallop with no serious front-end pressure.
Maxxum dictates on a long rein, the prominent trackers get the run of the race jumping fluently, and the winner is likely to come from those travelling just behind the leader from the second half of the race onward; the hold-up brigade are left with too little to pass on Good ground.
MaxxumHappy JackyTopgun SimmyDa Capo Glory
B
Hold-Up Horses Finish Fast
18% probability
If the pace is marginally stronger than expected and the closers get a proper gallop to chase late over this 3m trip.
Hewick, Reverend Hubert, or Smooth Tom get into a rhythm off the pace and produce their best finishes when the tempo stretches the field from three out; on Good ground over 3m this is viable but requires the pace to be genuine rather than dawdled.
HewickSmooth TomReverend HubertMousey Brown
C
Pace Collapses, Front Runner Capitalises
13% probability
If Maxxum is gifted an entirely uncontested lead and the field fails to close the gap at any meaningful point in the race.
Maxxum, unextended and unhurried, simply stays on powerfully and the hold-up horses are stranded too far back having conserved energy through an insufficient gallop; Kennedy's experience in this scenario makes Maxxum a difficult opponent.
MaxxumTopgun SimmyHappy JackyLinden Arden
D
Redistribution Chaos, Outsider Scores
7% probability
If the reshuffled midfielders race keenly out of position and the resulting pace disrupts the race shape unpredictably.
Horses like Roi Mage or Linden Arden, forced to race against their natural instincts, may unsettle the tempo in the final mile, leaving a market outsider to benefit from the ensuing disorder; this is a low-probability scenario but the overcrowded prominent group makes it non-negligible.
Roi MageLinden ArdenDesert CaveReverend Hubert
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Maxxum (Kennedy/Elliott) — watch whether he is allowed to bowl along at his own pace unchallenged; if no rival tests him early, he could control this from the front and prove very hard to peg back.
WATCH
Happy Jacky — a prominent racer at 12 years old who knows his job and has been placed nine times from fifteen on similar going; if he travels smoothly behind Maxxum through the second mile he could be the one to emerge from the chasing pack.
WATCH
Topgun Simmy — 326 days off the track for a 5-year-old is a real unknown, but his 3m wins on Good ground and prominent style put him in the right shape for this race; watch whether he travels with his usual fluency early or shows signs of ring-rustiness.
NOTE
Roi Mage and Linden Arden — both are natural pace-pressers forced into unfamiliar midfield positions by the crowded prominent group; watch for either becoming unsettled or running keenly against their nature, which could unsettle the tempo in the middle portion of the race.
NOTE
Reverend Hubert — 315 days off the track means his jumping sharpness is the key factor to watch in the early stages; if he is fluent and settles well for Phillip Enright he holds Good-ground form, but any early jumping errors will end his chance in a 3m contest at this level.
8:30 — Racing Again July 24th Fillies Flat Race
2m1f · Good · DEFAULT · 16 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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