1:30 — Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Maiden Hurdle
2m1½f · Good · MDN · 17 runners
Manoir De Mirande to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Karlynn led; the map had Manoir De Mirande in front.
Arouet won at 1.67 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Manoir De Mirande
Prominent · 1
Arouet
Midfield · 10
Square JasminMaestro Des PinsLaligurashGregwellFeel Like AshInchidaly RuaGranlahanBetterluckthistimeTake The FreeIvebeenkewadesert
Hold Up · 5
SestiniOn A DiamondMy Girl RobynDromana MistKarlynn
Manoir De Mirande looks the sole confirmed early leader in this 17-runner maiden, giving him a relatively uncontested run to the front through the early stages. With most rivals adopting hold-up tactics and several showing tendencies to fade in the finish, the pace is likely to be steady rather than frantic early on. The large field could create interference and positioning problems turning for home, particularly affecting those trying to come from the back. This race shape clearly favours prominent racers and those with early pace, as getting a clear run from the rear in such a big field will prove difficult.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Leader Dominates
45% probability
If Manoir De Mirande gets an easy lead and Josh Williamson judges the pace correctly
His class advantage (OR 117) and tactical position allow him to control the race from the front, with the large field struggling to reel him in late. The Gordon Elliott runner has placed form over similar trips and can dictate terms.
Manoir De MirandeMaestro Des PinsArouetKarlynn
B
Prominent Tracker Strikes
30% probability
If Arouet or another prominent runner can sit close enough to the leader without doing too much work
They get first run on the leader turning for home while the hold-up horses are still navigating traffic problems in the big field. P Twomey's Arouet has the flat speed and class to capitalize from a tracking position.
ArouetMaestro Des PinsManoir De MirandeKarlynn
C
Mullins Newcomer Improves
15% probability
If Maestro Des Pins shows significant improvement from his AQPS Flat win with Paul Townend able to secure a decent position
The It's Gino gelding has untapped potential and the master trainer's 17/122 recent strike rate suggests patient placing. His breeding suggests he'll handle this step up in class.
Maestro Des PinsArouetKarlynnManoir De Mirande
D
Field Comes Together Late
10% probability
If the early pace is very slow and the field remains tightly bunched turning for home
A scramble develops in the straight where stamina and a clean passage matter most, potentially suiting one of the better-bred hold-up horses. Karlynn's recent Clonmel form gives her an outside chance in such circumstances.
KarlynnSestiniArouetMaestro Des Pins
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Manoir De Mirande must be monitored for any early pressure as he's the only confirmed leader in this big field
WATCH
Watch for Paul Townend's positioning tactics on Maestro Des Pins as any market move would be significant
NOTE
Observe how Arouet breaks from the stalls as his prominent style could be crucial in this tactical race
NOTE
Monitor the early pace setting as a slow tempo would completely change the complexion of this large field
WATCH
Check for any late scratches as non-runners could significantly alter the pace dynamics with only one leader
2:05 — Sean Murphy Plant Hire Ltd. Rated Novice Hurdle
2m1½f · Good · NOV · 8 runners
Shirzan to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Big Dispute led; the map had Shirzan in front.
Moon Mission won at 13.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.
2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Shirzan
Prominent · 2
Le Roi Du LivetBig Dispute
Midfield · 3
Moon MissionThisain'tthatCrohan Lady
Hold Up · 2
Blue TrainRoyal Soldier
Shirzan is the only confirmed front runner and will dictate proceedings without pressure, likely setting a moderate tempo through the early stages. Le Roi Du Livet and Big Dispute will track prominently behind her, but neither has strong early pace to challenge the leader. The midfield and hold-up horses (Royal Soldier, Blue Train, Moon Mission, Thisain'tthat, Crohan Lady) will be content to settle behind what should be an uncontested lead. This race shape strongly favours the front runner and prominent racers, as Shirzan can control the tempo and the hold-up horses will struggle to make up ground against horses that get first run.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Shirzan Leads Throughout
45% probability
If Shirzan maintains her galloping rhythm without pressure and kicks clear approaching the last
She can dictate ideal fractions and use her tactical advantage to repel late challengers. The hold-up horses face too much to do against a controlling performance.
ShirzanLe Roi Du LivetBig DisputeMoon Mission
B
Prominent Pressure Pays
30% probability
If Le Roi Du Livet or Big Dispute apply sustained pressure to Shirzan from the second-last hurdle
The leader's jumping under pressure becomes crucial as the prominent racers get first run on the field. Royal Soldier and Blue Train may lack the tactical position to respond.
Le Roi Du LivetBig DisputeRoyal SoldierBlue Train
C
Hold-Up Horse Strikes
15% probability
If the pace collapses completely and Shirzan stops in the final furlong under pressure
Royal Soldier or Blue Train can use their proven finishing kicks to sweep past tiring leaders. Moon Mission's recent form suggests he could be the beneficiary of a truly-run race.
Royal SoldierBlue TrainMoon MissionCrohan Lady
D
Surprise Package Emerges
10% probability
If the race falls apart completely and an outsider benefits from the tactical chaos
Thisain'tthat's breeding suggests stamina reserves, while Crohan Lady's cheekpieces could spark improvement. Both need everything to fall their way tactically.
Thisain'tthatCrohan LadyMoon MissionBig Dispute
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Shirzan's jumping under any sustained pressure from Le Roi Du Livet, as her tactical advantage disappears if she makes errors
WATCH
Royal Soldier's confidence after falling when leading last time, particularly approaching the final hurdle
NOTE
Le Roi Du Livet's ability to handle the likely faster pace compared to his best heavy ground form
WATCH
Big Dispute's fitness returning from 185 days off despite solid work reports
NOTE
Crohan Lady's response to first-time cheekpieces and whether they spark the improvement needed
2:40 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle
2m3f · Good · MDN · 20 runners
Lead contested: Hillhead Runner v Rebel QueenHISTORIC
How it ran
Miss Georgina led; the map had Hillhead Runner and Rebel Queen in front.
Local News won at 101.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.
5 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Hillhead RunnerRebel Queen
Prominent · 2
La Cote FleurieAnn Bulkley
Midfield · 10
Local NewsEagle RiverDrumadeiseBethpage TheatreEvelynRi RaDictionary CornerTillyiverDarby HillDceilingcantholdus
Hillhead Runner and Rebel Queen are the confirmed front runners who will contest the early lead, with both showing L style tendencies. Their presence ensures an honest gallop from the start, preventing this from becoming a tactical crawl despite the large field of 20. The sustained pace will stretch out the field over this 2m3f trip, creating opportunities for horses that can travel strongly in behind and have a turn of foot. This race shape clearly favours prominent racers and strong-travelling hold-up horses who can capitalize on the genuine pace being set up front.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Genuine Pace Benefits Class
45% probability
If Hillhead Runner and Rebel Queen engage early and maintain honest fractions throughout
The sustained gallop will expose the weaker horses in this maiden field and allow the classier performers like Divaboriva and La Cote Fleurie to demonstrate their superior ability. Their proven form and higher ratings become decisive when the pace is searching.
DivaborivaLa Cote FleurieGolden WingsNoble Name
B
Front Runners Collapse Late
30% probability
If the two pace-setters go too fast early and weaken markedly in the final furlong
The strong early gallop will set up perfectly for the hold-up horses who can stay on strongly when the leaders tire. Fresh legs and stamina become the key factors as the race falls apart up front.
Eagle DollMiss GeorginaGolden WingsNoble Name
C
Tactical Battle Develops
15% probability
If one of the front runners drops out early leaving a more measured pace
The race becomes more tactical with prominent racers able to position perfectly behind a steadier tempo. This allows horses with tactical speed rather than pure stamina to be effective over the extended trip.
Ann BulkleyNoble NameHillhead RunnerGolden Wings
D
Pace Collapses Completely
10% probability
If both front runners are withdrawn or refuse to engage meaningfully
The large field creates a messy, stop-start affair that becomes a sprint finish rather than a test of stamina. Any horse with a turn of foot regardless of rating can capitalize on the chaotic finish.
IsdistheoneDictionary CornerEvelynRi Ra
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Hillhead Runner has changed yards twice and returns from 232-day layoff, pace-setting role demands fitness first time back
WATCH
La Cote Fleurie faces 217-day absence for De Bromhead stable, prominent style requires match fitness after long break
NOTE
Watch betting moves on debutants Bethpage Theatre and Drumadeise as market may reveal stable confidence
WATCH
Eagle Doll pulled up on debut and makes quick return after just 26 days, improvement needed to be competitive
NOTE
Golden Wings returns from injury layoff for Elliott, market support would indicate recovery from overreach problem
Lady Bluebird is the only confirmed front-runner and comes off an easy 13-length wire-to-wire victory at Tramore, creating a tactical advantage with no pressure for the lead. The prominent runners Galavanting George, Swelltime, and Bop Wont Stop will likely sit just behind, but none have shown genuine pace-forcing tendencies. With most of the field preferring hold-up tactics, including the classy Silent Selector and consistent Eastmore, this sets up a moderate gallop that could quicken late. This race shape strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable late traffic problems from a bunched field.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Front Runner Dominates
55% probability
If Lady Bluebird gets an uncontested lead and maintains her Tramore form...
She can dictate fractions and kick clear as the hold-up brigade gets stuck in traffic behind a slowly-run race. The lack of genuine pace pressure allows her to save energy for a telling move approaching the final flight.
Lady BluebirdGalavanting GeorgeSwelltimeBop Wont Stop
B
Late Surge Prevails
25% probability
If the pace collapses completely and becomes a sprint finish...
The hold-up horses get clear runs and their superior class tells in a driving finish. Silent Selector's proven ability on good ground and Eastmore's consistency become decisive factors.
Silent SelectorEastmoreNothing HecticMount Ferns
C
Prominent Tracker Strikes
12% probability
If one of the prominent runners can put pressure on Lady Bluebird mid-race...
Galavanting George or Swelltime force honest fractions that set up their own late kick while compromising the front-runner. The early positioning proves crucial as the back markers struggle to get involved.
Galavanting GeorgeSwelltimeSomersby RoostFairyland Opera
D
Pace Collapse Chaos
8% probability
If Lady Bluebird stops suddenly or makes jumping errors under pressure...
The race becomes a messy scramble where any horse with a decent position can capitalize on the confusion. Form figures become less relevant than luck in running and tactical positioning.
Bearami CreekJay Pee MMinority InterestLiceo
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Lady Bluebird's jumping under any pressure - fell twice in career and needs to stay sound to utilize tactical edge
WATCH
Eastmore's finishing kick after 189-day layoff - historically fades late but freshness could change that pattern
WATCH
Galavanting George's confidence after falling as favourite last time - Cromwell stable in good form but mental aspect crucial
NOTE
Silent Selector's early positioning from hold-up style - needs Flanagan to get him close enough in slowly-run race
NOTE
Traffic problems in home straight with 15+ hold-up horses likely bunched together turning for home
Brianna LilyJaadilMaxicourtCooltubrid EvaKoeur A Prendre
Hold Up · 5
Jisco Du BremWay Down SouthCoolboy ChristySynchronizeBarryroe Madam
Claude stands as the sole confirmed front-runner in this 18-runner handicap hurdle, giving him tactical control from the start. With most runners adopting prominent or hold-up styles, Claude can dictate a sustainable gallop without early pressure, allowing the large field to settle behind him. The numerous hold-up horses (Jaadil, Way Down South, Barryroe Madam, Maxicourt, Jisco Du Brem, Coolboy Christy, Cooltubrid Eva, Synchronize) will create congestion in the pack, making clean passages crucial. This race shape strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems behind.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Claude Controls Uncontested
45% probability
If Claude gets an easy lead and sustainable fractions without pressure
The front-runner can kick clear approaching the final flight while the pack gets stuck behind each other in a sprint finish. This setup perfectly suits horses like Claude who can dictate and prominent racers like Moylussa who track the pace.
ClaudeMoylussaCoded WelderShesakindofmagic
B
Hold-Up Heroes Find Gaps
30% probability
If the pace becomes truly run and gaps appear for late runners
Patient tactics pay off as stamina tells over this extended trip, with hold-up specialists getting clear runs up the inside or wide. Form horses like Jaadil and progressive types like Way Down South can capitalize on their class.
JaadilWay Down SouthMaxicourtJisco Du Brem
C
Mid-Division Muddle
15% probability
If Claude sets moderate fractions but prominent horses press forward creating scrimmaging
The race becomes a messy affair with multiple leaders and no clear advantage, favouring handy horses with racing room. Garnetot and Kelly's Cosmos could benefit from tracking early leaders without getting trapped.
GarnetotKelly's CosmosParkgarveHumble Brag
D
Pace Collapse Surprise
10% probability
If Claude goes too slow early allowing prominent horses to crowd the leader
The lack of true pace creates a bunched field turning for home, potentially suiting any horse with a clean passage. Long shots like Coolboy Christy or even Cooltubrid Eva could sneak through if positioned well.
Claude must handle the pressure of being lone leader - any signs of stopping could see him capitulate quickly
WATCH
Traffic problems inevitable with so many hold-up horses - watch for clean passages turning for home
NOTE
Jaadil and Way Down South both progressive types who could improve again off these marks
WATCH
Several horses returning from long layoffs including Parkgarve (211d) and Garnetot (203d) need market support
NOTE
Ground conditions remain consistently good across the card which should suit most runners here
4:25 — Springfort Hall Country House Hotel Maiden Hurdle
3m½f · Good · MDN · 10 runners
Lead contested: Doctor Du Mesnil v Jeroboam MachinHISTORIC
How it ran
Doctor Du Mesnil led, as the map showed.
Doctor Du Mesnil won at 1.22 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Doctor Du MesnilJeroboam Machin
Prominent · 2
Doctor ElvisLittle John
Midfield · 3
Killowen HouseLoyal PraetorianClone Cross
Hold Up · 3
Zambezi MoonSeek A Richer LifeDeerpark Hill
Doctor Du Mesnil and Jeroboam Machin will contest the early lead, with both confirmed front runners likely to engage from flagfall. The 3m½f trip on good ground should produce an honest gallop with these two setting a steady tempo through the early stages. Little John and Doctor Elvis can track prominently behind the leaders, while the hold-up horses like Zambezi Moon, Seek A Richer Life and Deerpark Hill will need the pace to collapse late. This race shape strongly favours prominent trackers and those with tactical speed to position close to the pace, as pure hold-up horses face a difficult task if the leaders maintain their gallop.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Leaders sustain honest gallop
45% probability
If Doctor Du Mesnil and Jeroboam Machin maintain a solid tempo throughout without collapsing
The sustained pace will find out the stamina reserves and favour those traveling in the first four positions turning for home. Hold-up horses will struggle to make up significant ground in the closing stages.
Doctor Du MesnilDoctor ElvisLittle JohnJeroboam Machin
B
Early pace collapses late
30% probability
If the two front runners engage too keenly early and fade from the final half-mile
The race becomes a sprint finish where tactical speed and class matter more than position, allowing hold-up horses to close effectively. Fresh legs and finishing kick become decisive factors.
Zambezi MoonDoctor ElvisLoyal PraetorianDeerpark Hill
C
Moderate tempo throughout
15% probability
If Doctor Du Mesnil leads uncontested with Jeroboam Machin tracking rather than challenging
The steady pace creates an even-tempo test where the classiest horse wins regardless of tactics. All running styles get their chance in a fair test of ability.
Doctor Du MesnilZambezi MoonDoctor ElvisJeroboam Machin
D
Pace meltdown sprint
10% probability
If both leaders go too fast early and multiple horses are still in contention at the last
The race becomes a pure stamina test where only horses with untapped reserves can respond to pressure. Late closers with the strongest finishing kicks dominate.
Doctor Du Mesnil must prove his hurdles form can match his bumper promise after disappointing in three starts over timber
WATCH
Jeroboam Machin's fitness after 793 days off the track could see him fade quickly despite his front-running style
WATCH
The amateur jockeys on Killowen House and Clone Cross may struggle with tactical positioning in this company
NOTE
Zambezi Moon's price movement will indicate stable confidence given his shock 80-1 bumper win here
NOTE
Little John and Doctor Elvis both carry headgear changes suggesting trainer concerns about their previous efforts
5:00 — Bet With Tote.ie On Racing & Sports Handicap Hurdle
3m½f · Good · HCAP · 24 runners
Lead contested: Made In The Woods v Toor MoonHISTORIC
How it ran
Made In The Woods and Ranger Billy led, as the map showed.
Annie Button won at 6.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.
3 of 21 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Made In The WoodsToor Moon
Prominent · 1
Head For Home
Midfield · 14
Imperial TuneSallapNavy WavesHalsafariThree County StarTantrum BoyMillie BI See FogAnnie ButtonClever CourtMoonshine GirlLarkins LaneBack The WestAppian Way
Hold Up · 7
Only For Our ManEmpire WalkJourney So FarMistyburnRanger BillyHay BabyOrinoco Walk
Made In The Woods and Toor Moon are the confirmed front-runners who will contest the early lead, creating an honest gallop throughout this 3m½f test. With 24 runners and limited pace, the tempo should be manageable early before quickening, allowing the field to stay compact longer than usual. The stamina-sapping distance combined with good ground will stretch the field in the final mile, exposing those without genuine staying power. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses with proven stamina who can finish strongly, as the modest early pace will leave plenty in reserve for a sustained drive from the back.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Strong Stayer Prevails
60% probability
If the pace is modest early and quickens from 2 furlongs out
The genuine stayers positioned mid-pack or towards rear will have energy reserves to mount sustained challenges, while those lacking stamina fade despite good positions. Hold-up horses with proven 3m+ form will thrive as the race becomes a stamina test.
Only For Our ManNavy WavesEmpire WalkThree County Star
B
Front Two Collapse Late
25% probability
If Made In The Woods and Toor Moon set unsustainable fractions
The pace-setters will weaken dramatically in the final furlong, allowing prominent racers who settled just behind to inherit the lead. Horses that can track the leaders without being caught up in their battle will benefit most.
Head For HomeMillie BHalsafariAnnie Button
C
Tactical Kick Wins
10% probability
If the pace becomes crawling and turns into a sprint
The race becomes less about stamina and more about tactical speed, suiting horses that can quicken despite the trip. Those held up too far back may struggle to make up ground in time.
Imperial TuneBack The WestHay BabyOrinoco Walk
D
Front Runners Dominate
5% probability
If Made In The Woods and Toor Moon settle into sustainable rhythm
The leaders maintain their advantage throughout, with one or both staying on strongly to the line. The lack of serious pace pressure allows them to conserve energy for a strong finish.
Made In The WoodsToor MoonJourney So FarAppian Way
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Made In The Woods and Toor Moon must avoid going too fast early as both have stamina to prove over this extended trip
WATCH
Only For Our Man carries 7lb penalty for recent win but claiming allowance negates the rise
WATCH
Several hold-up horses including Moonshine Girl, Three County Star, and Appian Way have concerning fade patterns in their recent form
NOTE
First-time headgear on Navy Waves, Made In The Woods, and Millie B could spark improvement from recent disappointing efforts
NOTE
Journey So Far's trainer Gavin Cromwell operates at 9% strike rate, suggesting the yard is in reasonable form despite horse's struggles
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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