Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
5:22 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Rated Race
5f · Good · DEFAULT · 8 runners
Star Prospect likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Grayrobin and Lars Soldier led; the map had Star Prospect in front.
Grayrobin won at 10.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Star Prospect
Prominent · 2
GrayrobinLa Tache
Midfield · 3
Lars SoldierSirocco SandsBelle Island
Hold Up · 2
Hi Corbett CourtCelestial Crown
Star Prospect is the confirmed front-runner here and, with only one genuine pace-setter in an eight-runner 5f field on Good to Firm ground at Cork, the tempo is likely to be controlled and sustainable rather than searingly contested. Grayrobin and La Tache will press from prominent berths but neither is a natural pace-maker, meaning Star Prospect can dictate terms and avoid a war for the lead. This race shape — a single leader setting a measured gallop on fast ground over a sharp five furlongs — strongly favours prominent and close-tracking profiles that can sit just behind the early pace and pounce in the final furlong, rather than true hold-up horses who need a strong pace to close into. The field holds more prominent types than the race can comfortably accommodate: Sirocco Sands and Lars Soldier are genuine prominent racers mapped to midfield due to congestion, and Star Prospect alongside Grayrobin are best placed to actually secure their preferred positions at the head of affairs.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Lead, Prominent Pounce
62% probability
If Star Prospect dictates a measured gallop and the prominent horses track closely before a sprint finish develops.
Star Prospect sets a sustainable tempo on the Good to Firm ground, and the runners sitting just behind — Grayrobin and La Tache — are perfectly positioned to launch their challenges in the final furlong without having wasted energy fighting for position. This scenario rewards horses that break cleanly, travel with cover close to the pace, and possess a sharp turn of foot over the last 100 yards.
GrayrobinLa TacheStar ProspectSirocco Sands
B
Front Runner Holds On
20% probability
If Star Prospect settles comfortably in front, the pace is genuinely moderate, and no rival lands a telling blow from behind.
With the pack fragmented in pursuit and no horse able to close the gap on a fast surface that rewards early position, Star Prospect's class advantage (OR 120) becomes decisive as those tracking wide or out of position fail to reel it in. A flat-out sprint from the front suits a juvenile that has already won over this trip and surface condition.
Star ProspectGrayrobinLa TacheSirocco Sands
C
Pace Collapse, Midfield Surge
11% probability
If Star Prospect goes too fast early and ties up inside the final furlong, opening the door for runners coming from off the pace.
Lars Soldier or Sirocco Sands, despite being mapped to midfield due to overcrowding of prominent types, could still be travelling strongly if they settle slightly further back than ideal and benefit from a weakening leader. The fast ground does not typically encourage dramatic late surges over 5f at Cork, limiting the scope of this scenario.
Lars SoldierSirocco SandsHi Corbett CourtBelle Island
D
Hold-Up Horses Pounce Late
7% probability
If the pace is genuinely strong and the field strings out, leaving Hi Corbett Court, Celestial Crown or Belle Island with ground to make up in the final stages.
Hi Corbett Court showed a placed effort last time and Wayne Lordan aboard Belle Island provides a strong tactical hand, but true hold-up profiles face a structural disadvantage in a single-paced 5f where the leader controls the fractions. Celestial Crown, fitted with no headgear and carrying a 7lb claim, lacks the form figures to suggest she can make up sufficient ground from the rear.
Hi Corbett CourtBelle IslandCelestial CrownLars Soldier
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Star Prospect's gallop fractions are the engine of this entire race — if Dylan Browne McMonagle sends it clear unchallenged, the race shape will be decided inside the first furlong and prominent rivals must react immediately or lose all chance.
WATCH
Sirocco Sands and Lars Soldier are both natural prominent types who cannot both get their preferred berth; watch the first two furlongs for crowding on the stands rail — any bumping or shuffling back will significantly reduce their chances.
WATCH
La Tache's last run was just five days ago and she steps back to a shorter trip; if there is any residual stiffness or she fails to stride out freely in the early stages, Colin Keane may find himself further back than ideal given the controlled pace.
NOTE
Hi Corbett Court's tongue-tie is noted on only his second career start — if it aids him in settling better and traveling more smoothly than his debut suggests, W J Lee could find himself in a better tactical position than his hold-up tag implies, but he still needs pace to close into.
5:58 — Doneraile Handicap
5f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners
Kendall Roy likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Rosie Frith and Genesis led; the map had Kendall Roy in front.
Ipanema Queen won at 8.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.
4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Kendall Roy
Prominent · 3
Howd'yadoitSarahmaeRosie Frith
Midfield · 4
Ipanema QueenEclairageGenesisFox In Flight
Hold Up · 3
ErosandpsycheChicago CallAllsortz
Kendall Roy is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine pressure expected to materialise immediately, is likely to dictate at a controlled but honest clip on good-to-firm ground — a surface that rewards horses who travel fluently and don't expend energy fighting for position. Sarahmae, Howd'yadoit, and Rosie Frith are the legitimate prominent racers likely to slot in behind the leader, with Colin Keane aboard Rosie Frith and Chris Hayes on the front-running Kendall Roy providing strong positional jockey influence. The field is loaded with natural front-runners — Eclairage, Ipanema Queen, Genesis, and Fox In Flight are all true prominent types who will be unable to secure their preferred position and are mapped to midfield as a consequence, meaning the early portions of this race will see competition for that prominent berth before the field settles. On a flat 5f in good-to-firm conditions with a sustainable pace from the front, this race shape strongly favours horses who can travel prominently without burning themselves out — specifically those with genuine positional claims in the first rank rather than the redistributed types who will find themselves further back than ideal.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Kendall Roy Controls Cleanly
58% probability
If Kendall Roy dictates from the front without significant pressure and the prominent horses behind settle into rhythm.
Kendall Roy leads at a sustainable gallop, the true prominent racers — Sarahmae and Rosie Frith — track in second and third, and the race develops into a test of who can sustain their early position into the final furlong; on good-to-firm ground over 5f the leader earns a significant advantage by avoiding early energy battles.
Kendall RoyRosie FrithSarahmaeHowd'yadoit
B
Prominent Pack Edges It
22% probability
If the genuine prominent racers — Sarahmae, Howd'yadoit, or Rosie Frith — get a clean position early and outstay the leader in the final 1f.
Kendall Roy sets the pace but is challenged by two or three natural prominent types from the 2f pole, and the sustained gallop on quick ground turns it into a flat-out sprint finish that suits those who have tracked with cover rather than led; Sarahmae's recent form and Howd'yadoit's trainer's 7-from-31 strike rate in a 14-day window add meaningful support.
SarahmaeHowd'yadoitRosie FrithKendall Roy
C
Pace Collapse Late Surge
12% probability
If the early pace is stronger than expected — multiple prominent types fighting for position — and the hold-up horses benefit from a compressed finish.
Erosandpsyche or Chicago Call, genuine hold-up types who have the tactical patience to wait for gaps, benefit if the race ignites quickly and the leaders run into a wall inside the final furlong; Chicago Call has strong good-going form and Erosandpsyche has placed three times at this trip and going combination, giving both credible closing claims.
ErosandpsycheChicago CallAllsortzGenesis
D
Redistributed Type Beats Map
8% probability
If one of the pace-pressed prominent horses — Eclairage, Genesis, or Fox In Flight — manages to secure a better position than their mapped midfield slot and travels into contention.
This is a lower-probability shape precisely because those horses are displaced by a crowded prominent berth and will likely expend energy fighting for position rather than conserving it; Genesis has the best recent form of the group and the smallest field gap to overcome, but the style-fit discount is real.
GenesisEclairageFox In FlightIpanema Queen
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Rosie Frith to be tracked from the gates — if Colin Keane secures the prime prominent slot directly behind Kendall Roy without burning energy, the horse's good-to-firm 5f form makes it a principal danger to the leader.
WATCH
Watch for early position chaos between Eclairage, Genesis, Ipanema Queen, and Fox In Flight — all four are natural prominent types who cannot all get their spot, and any pushing-and-shoving in the first furlong could compromise multiple runners and compress the race shape.
WATCH
Chicago Call's 68-day absence is the longest in the field; if the horse is ring-rusty it will not get competitive at the top of the straight and Ben Coen may find there is simply no late sprint available after a break of that length on quick ground.
NOTE
Kendall Roy's STYLE_FIT tag is worth monitoring in-running — if the horse appears to be straining to hold its position rather than relaxed on the front, the prominent pack tracking behind may close faster than the market implies in the final 1f.
NOTE
Genesis's trainer (3/12 last 14 days) and Wesley Joyce's 3lb claim make this one of the better-value watch angles among the redistributed runners — if it does manage to slot into a prominent position early rather than its mapped midfield slot, reassess its live chances immediately.
6:33 — Navigation Road Maiden
6f · Good · MDN · 16 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
7:08 — Follow Us On Social Media Handicap
6f · Good · HCAP · 21 runners
I'm Spartacus likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Platino Bianco and Jampa Ling and Heart Of Eternity led; the map had I'm Spartacus in front.
El Fontenaro won at 4.33 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
6 of 18 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Love BombJazzitCaptain CianoAuguste GusteauNiobiteBallerina DancerYou SmiledSnowballsHastily
Hold Up · 6
Heart Of EternityBillboaThe Cosy CornerAlandownunderDubai OpulencePlatino Bianco
I'm Spartacus is the lone confirmed front-runner in a 21-runner field over 6f at Cork on good-to-firm ground, and with no genuine challenger for the lead, Adam Caffrey can dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop from the front without any pressure forcing the tempo through the first half. The field is loaded with hold-up types — Love Bomb, Jazzit, Captain Ciano, Auguste Gusteau, Snowballs and others — but the pace map cannot accommodate them all at the rear, and several will be forced to race closer than ideal, creating a bunched midfield rather than a truly strung-out field. El Fontenaro, Whatswrongnow and Rosato are the most likely prominent types to secure natural positions just behind the leader, giving them a clean passage against the rail or down the middle. With a single pace-setter setting a measured tempo on fast ground, this race shape strongly favours horses racing prominently or from just off the pace — they will travel into the race without burning energy, find daylight early in the straight, and have first run on the hold-up horses who must come from further back in a compressed field with little room to manoeuvre.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Lead, Prominent Pounce
46% probability
If I'm Spartacus sets an uncontested, even gallop and the prominent horses slot in cleanly behind.
I'm Spartacus dictates the fractions unchallenged and the race develops into a sustained 2f duel from the home bend, favouring those who have tracked the pace throughout; El Fontenaro and Whatswrongnow are ideally placed to challenge first with a clear run, having the fitness and course form to last home on this ground.
El FontenaroWhatswrongnowRosatoJampa Ling
B
Prominent Horses Dominate Finish
28% probability
If the pace is genuinely slow and the leader kicks early, compressing the race into a sprint finish in which prominent types have the positional advantage.
A dawdling pace followed by a sudden injection of pace from the front two furlongs out suits those who have sat just behind the leader and can respond immediately; Rosato has the course and distance form at a lenient mark, and Whatswrongnow's recent 6f good-ground form makes it dangerous in this scenario.
RosatoWhatswrongnowEl FontenaroSovereign Banter
C
Late-Finishing Closer Strikes
16% probability
If the pace quickens sharply from halfway and the front-runners tie up in the final furlong, leaving a gap for a closer who has been produced with a late run.
This is the scenario that benefits Platino Bianco, who has won over 5f on good ground at OR=50 and can produce a powerful late effort if a gap appears; Snowballs and Jazzit are capable of finishing strongly but are racing partially out of their preferred position, reducing the probability of this shape delivering.
Platino BiancoJazzitSnowballsCaptain Ciano
D
Chaos In Large Field
10% probability
If the large field causes trouble in running, checks and shuffling back, creating a race where only a horse with an uninterrupted run survives.
With 21 runners over 6f, interference in the early stages could cause bunching and checks that eliminate hold-up horses entirely, leaving only those with early position to benefit; Whatswrongnow and El Fontenaro, with bang-up-to-date form and prominent styles on good ground, are best equipped to avoid trouble and capitalise.
WhatswrongnowEl FontenaroRosatoI'm Spartacus
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
El Fontenaro and Whatswrongnow are on a collision course for the prominent positions directly behind I'm Spartacus — watch which one secures the cleaner rail berth out of the gates, as that horse gets first run in the straight.
WATCH
The 21-runner field creates significant early congestion risk — hold-up horses like Jazzit, Captain Ciano and Love Bomb are likely to be shuffled even further back than intended, meaning their finishing efforts will be launched from further off the pace than their STYLE_FIT flags already suggest.
WATCH
The Cosy Corner's trainer Patrick Magee is 4/14 in the last 14 days — a live stable indicator that warrants monitoring for any market support, even though the bare form is uninspiring.
NOTE
Sovereign Banter drops to OR=45 with trainer Andrew Slattery riding himself — trainer-jockey combinations in Irish handicaps at this level often signal stable confidence; watch the market for unusual support given the yard's 4/39 recent strike rate.
NOTE
Going is reported Good To Firm for all 6f races on the card today, firmer than the declared Good — any horses with headgear changes (Billboa: tongue-tie/bit; Heart Of Eternity: hood; Captain Ciano: hood; Hastily: hood) should be noted as connections have made interventions that may be going-related or freshness-related.
7:43 — Buy Tickets Online At www.corkracecourse.ie Median Auction Race
1m · Good · DEFAULT · 5 runners
Alphonsus Liguori likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Alphonsus Liguori and Fate's Gambit led, as the map showed.
Alphonsus Liguori won at 1.05 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Alphonsus Liguori
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 2
Holy LettuceFate's Gambit
Hold Up · 2
The Monday ClubLady In The Gods
Alphonsus Liguori is the sole confirmed front-runner in a five-horse field and, with no genuine challenger for the lead, will dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop on good-to-firm ground over a mile at Cork. The three hold-up types — Fate's Gambit, The Monday Club, and Lady In The Gods — will be forced to track closer than their natural style dictates, compressing the field behind a single pace-setter and removing the true waiting game they prefer. Holy Lettuce is an unknown quantity stylistically, adding a degree of uncertainty to how the mid-race positions settle. This race shape heavily favours a horse who can sit just off Alphonsus Liguori's uncontested lead and pounce when the pace is wound up in the final two furlongs — a prominent, close-tracking profile is the primary beneficiary, with genuine deep closers at a structural disadvantage because they will be unable to find their natural rhythm at the rear.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Alphonsus Liguori Dictates
70% probability
If Alphonsus Liguori sets a controlled, unchallenged pace and the small field fails to produce a strong mid-race surge.
Alphonsus Liguori bowls along in front on a sound surface that suits his form profile, and with no rival willing or able to pressure him, he converts his positional advantage into a winning lead entering the straight.
Alphonsus LiguoriHoly LettuceThe Monday Club
B
Close Tracker Pounces
16% probability
If a rival tracks Alphonsus Liguori close enough to strike before the final furlong without getting outsprinted.
The slow early tempo invites a horse to close up travelling strongly at the halfway point and challenge as Alphonsus Liguori ties up, rewarding any runner with enough class to bridge the gap in the straight on good-to-firm ground.
Holy LettuceAlphonsus LiguoriThe Monday Club
C
Closers Storm Late
9% probability
If the pace collapses in the straight and the compressed hold-up runners find an unexpected run of daylight.
With a small field on a flat, fair track, any dramatic fade from the leader opens a brief window for Fate's Gambit or The Monday Club to finish with purpose, though both are racing closer than ideal.
The Monday ClubFate's GambitLady In The Gods
D
Complete Upset
5% probability
If the race falls apart tactically and a rank outsider takes advantage of the chaos created by unsettled positioning.
Lady In The Gods or Fate's Gambit benefit from a messy pace scenario that nullifies Alphonsus Liguori's strengths, though poor recent form and fitness concerns make this the least credible outcome.
Lady In The GodsFate's Gambit
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Alphonsus Liguori's 73-day absence is the primary risk factor — watch for any signs of rustiness in the parade ring or early in the race that could undermine his ability to maintain the front-running role he relies upon.
WATCH
Holy Lettuce is lightly raced and entirely unexposed at this trip — if W.J. Lee decides to track Alphonsus Liguori closely from the outset, this horse could prove a live threat if its single run understated its ability.
WATCH
The Monday Club and Fate's Gambit are both natural hold-up horses forced to race closer than ideal in a five-runner field — watch whether they settle or race keenly in the unfamiliar stalking position, as either outcome changes the closing pace dynamic.
NOTE
Lady In The Gods has a noted tendency to fade in the finish and her trainer has only one runner in the past 14 days — if she shows any early reluctance or trails from the break, she will likely be a non-factor well before the straight.
8:18 — Racing Again August 3rd Handicap
1m4f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners
Point Cartwright likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Canon Law led; the map had Point Cartwright in front.
Amethyst Stone won at 23.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.
3 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Point Cartwright is the sole confirmed front-runner in a 13-runner field and, with no rival willing or able to pressure him from the outset, he should control tempo from the front on good-to-firm ground over 1m4f at Cork. The pace he sets is likely to be honest but not scorching — a single front-runner rarely over-cooks it when unopposed, meaning the race will be run at a sustainable rhythm that keeps the field compact through the early stages. With the field heavily populated by hold-up and prominent types, the midfield will be congested and many runners will find themselves unable to achieve their natural position; Guildhall Graduate, Amethyst Stone, Wingit, Tavarua, Canon Law, Kuma Queen and Cadreville are all redistributed from their true rear-of-field role into a notional midfield slot because there simply is not room for all of them to settle at the back. In a race with one honest pace-setter and a wall of closers unable to get their preferred spot, the tactical verdict is clear: the race shape most favours horses that can travel prominently or just off the pace in second or third, tracking Point Cartwright's controlled tempo and delivering their challenge without fighting traffic — Connecteo and Borora Aura, who can work through the field, and Point Cartwright himself, are the profiles to focus on.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Point Cartwright Controls
52% probability
If Point Cartwright dictates an uncontested, measured gallop and the hold-up brigade cannot get clear runs through a congested field.
Point Cartwright sets a sustainable pace on good-to-firm ground and, with no rival willing to challenge him early, builds an advantage that the closers cannot fully close in time; the compact midfield creates traffic for those coming from off the pace.
Point CartwrightConnecteoBorora AuraMillhone
B
Prominent Tracker Pounces
26% probability
If a horse travelling just off Point Cartwright's pace moves smoothly to challenge entering the straight and wins a two-horse battle.
With the pace honest but not extreme, a prominent mover that has tracked the leader without expending energy in traffic is ideally placed to deliver a clean challenge; Connecteo and Borora Aura both have the positional awareness and recent trip experience to exploit this shape.
ConnecteoBorora AuraPoint CartwrightWingit
C
Late Closer Gets Through
14% probability
If the pace turns unexpectedly strong and the field fans wide in the straight, giving room to those held up rearmost.
Should Point Cartwright quicken the tempo mid-race or the field string out, some of the redistributed hold-up horses might find gaps; Wingit, who ran 2nd over 13f on good ground, is the most credible beneficiary if this rare gap opens, though the STYLE_FIT discount limits confidence.
WingitCadrevilleCanon LawMillhone
D
Staying Grind Suits Outsider
8% probability
If the pace is slow early then the field sprints for home, creating a stamina-sapping finish that catches out prominent types.
A slow-burn race that turns into a test of raw stamina over 1m4f on quick ground could expose surprising form; Cadreville improved to a third over 10f and steps up to a likely career-best trip, while Millhone placed over 11f and handles this going.
CadrevilleMillhoneNathemaCanon Law
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Point Cartwright is the only horse capable of controlling pace from the front — if Ronan Whelan bowls along unopposed and the midfield becomes a traffic jam, the rest of the field is racing for the places at best.
WATCH
Wingit ran just four days ago and Colin Keane's eagerness to take such a quick turnaround with a genuine hold-up horse in a congested 13-runner field is worth monitoring — a short-to-medium term bounce risk exists.
WATCH
Kuma Queen returns from 339 days off and is a completely unknown quantity fitness-wise; she could be significantly undercooked or, in the rare case of a perfect preparation, a sleeper — Leigh Roche's early positioning will be the tell.
NOTE
The going report confirms Good to Firm throughout the evening at Cork — conditions are faster than the declared GOOD, which will shorten strides for hold-up types in a long 1m4f race and further advantage those who can travel close to Point Cartwright's pace.
NOTE
Guildhall Graduate and Amethyst Stone are both Gavin Cromwell and Paul Flynn runners respectively who are in reality back-of-field types navigating a compacted midfield — watch whether their jockeys attempt to push forward early or accept the rear, as either choice carries a trade-off in this race shape.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.