Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
1:50 — BAR 1 Betting Hurdle
2m½f · Good To Soft · DEFAULT · 7 runners
Soir De Garde to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Soir De Garde led, as the map showed.
Ndaawi won at 2.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Soir De Garde
Prominent · 2
NdaawiTherellbguddaysyet
Midfield · 2
SageboroughNo Looking Back
Hold Up · 2
AbsurdeBusselton
Soir De Garde will take this field along from the front with no other confirmed pace-setters to challenge his early lead. The Mullins runner can dictate terms through steady sectionals over this stamina test, while prominent runners Ndaawi and Therellbeguddaysyet sit within striking distance. The majority of this field are hold-up horses (Absurde, Sageborough, Busselton, No Looking Back) who will need the pace to develop properly to get their ground. This race shape strongly favours front runners and prominent racers who can track the modest gallop and kick clear when it matters.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Soir De Garde Dictates
45% probability
If Soir De Garde gets an uncontested lead and maintains control of the gallop
The 8-year-old can string out the field with his relentless galloping style, making it difficult for the hold-up horses to pick up the pieces. His recent wins show he's best when allowed to dominate from the front.
Soir De GardeNdaawiTherellbeguddaysyetAbsurde
B
Prominent Tracker Strikes
30% probability
If Ndaawi or Therellbeguddaysyet can track Soir De Garde and outkick him late
The class horse Ndaawi has the tactical speed to sit prominent and use his superior rating, while the returning Therellbeguddaysyet could benefit from the strong gallop. Both can position themselves perfectly behind the leader.
NdaawiTherellbeguddaysyetSoir De GardeAbsurde
C
Hold-Up Horse Revival
15% probability
If the pace becomes truly testing and allows the back markers to close strongly
Absurde's class could shine through if given the right race shape, though his recent form is questionable. The stamina demands could suit his style if others have gone too hard early.
AbsurdeBusseltonSageboroughNo Looking Back
D
Pace Collapse Surprise
10% probability
If Soir De Garde goes too slow early and gets swamped by a wall of closers
A tactical affair could allow multiple hold-up horses to arrive together, creating chaos in the finish. This would particularly suit horses with a turn of foot over this staying trip.
BusseltonSageboroughNo Looking BackAbsurde
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Soir De Garde jumping fluently and getting an easy lead - if unopposed early he becomes very hard to peg back
WATCH
Ndaawi's positioning through the first mile - if tracking the leader closely he has the class to win this
NOTE
How Therellbeguddaysyet handles the return from his long absence - fitness could be the key factor
WATCH
The pace development after the first circuit - if it's too steady the hold-up horses get into contention
NOTE
Absurde's jumping and enthusiasm early on - recent poor form suggests confidence issues
2:25 — O'Flynn Motors Mallow Mares Maiden Hurdle
2m3f · Good To Soft · MDN · 14 runners
Kimi De Mai likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Crystal Gold led; the map had Kimi De Mai in front.
Tountinna won at 6.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Chosen PrincessToor IdahoQuestionableWings Of Africa
Hold Up · 4
Dictionary CornerArdeen JoyTountinnaQuiet In Bresil
Kimi De Mai will take this race forward from the outset, with Poetic Twist, Crystal Gold and Somersby Roost tracking prominently in the early stages. The pace should be genuine but sustainable given the limited early speed in this maiden field. Dictionary Corner, Tountinna and Ardeen Joy are all confirmed hold-up horses who will need the race to develop, but several of them show concerning finishing tendencies. This race shape clearly favours the prominent racers who can position close to Kimi De Mai and strike when the pace lifts, as the hold-up brigade face too many question marks over their finishing kick.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Tracker Strikes
45% probability
If Kimi De Mai sets steady fractions and gets headed approaching the last
The early pace-setters will come back to the field, allowing the best prominent tracker to time their challenge perfectly. Crystal Gold or Poetic Twist can exploit their superior class ratings in this tactical finish.
Crystal GoldPoetic TwistKimi De MaiCourtmac Gesture
B
Front Runner Dominates
30% probability
If Kimi De Mai gets an uncontested lead and kicks clear turning in
The lack of early pace pressure allows Mullins' mare to build an unassailable advantage, with her proven stamina reserves carrying her home. The hold-up horses leave themselves too much to do from the back.
Kimi De MaiCrystal GoldSomersby RoostPoetic Twist
C
Hold-Up Horse Emerges
15% probability
If the early pace becomes genuinely strong and the front-runners tire
Dictionary Corner or Tountinna could benefit from a strong gallop that sets up their preferred finishing kick. However, both have shown concerning finishing tendencies that make this scenario less reliable.
Dictionary CornerTountinnaArdeen JoyQuiet In Bresil
D
Pace Collapse Surprise
10% probability
If Kimi De Mai goes too slowly and the race becomes a sprint finish
A crawling pace could allow an outsider with tactical speed to steal this, though the prominent runners still hold most of the cards. Courtmac Gesture might find this tactical pattern more suitable.
Wings Of Africa and Toor Idaho both show concerning form patterns with multiple poor efforts and should be avoided completely
WATCH
Dictionary Corner faces a significant test returning after 129 days with limited recent evidence of current ability
NOTE
Watch for how strongly Kimi De Mai goes early - if uncontested she could build a decisive advantage
NOTE
Crystal Gold returning after 87-day break needs to show immediate sharpness to justify highest rating
WATCH
Several hold-up horses including Chosen Princess and Ardeen Joy have shown fading tendencies in recent runs
3:00 — BAR 1 Betting Handicap Hurdle
2m3f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 20 runners
Lead contested: Sainte Lucie v Cappa HillHISTORIC
How it ran
Ifallgoeswell and Pray Tell and Sequoiaspirit led; the map had Sainte Lucie and Cappa Hill in front.
Sainte Lucie won at 6.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
8 of 19 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Sainte LucieCappa Hill
Prominent · 8
Its BilboPray TellMonbeg ParkBalko d'AngeD Art D ArtAutumn TwistCoyote SpiritWholelotofbusiness
Midfield · 4
LarzacSequoiaspiritElusive OgieButter Fingers
Hold Up · 6
Open SecretI'm SlippyCounty FinalTassaroloRockymountainbleuIfallgoeswell
Sainte Lucie and Cappa Hill will dispute the early lead, with Sainte Lucie's Mullins connections likely pushing the tempo from the outset. The prominent brigade of Monbeg Park, Its Bilbo, Coyote Spirit, Balko d'Ange, Pray Tell, Autumn Twist, Sequoiaspirit, Elusive Ogie, D Art D Art, and Larzac creates a wall of 10 runners wanting that second-third position - this will cause significant interference and scrimmaging from 2-3 out. With only 6 hold-up runners (County Final, I'm Slippy, Rockymountainbleu, Ifallgoeswell, Open Secret, Tassarolo, Butter Fingers) in a 20-runner field, the pace will be strong throughout. This congested prominent battle and honest gallop heavily favours the hold-up merchants who can avoid the traffic and finish strongest.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-up horses dominate
55% probability
If the prominent wall creates expected traffic chaos 2-3 out
The 10 prominent runners will interfere with each other while hold-up runners get clear runs down the outside. County Final and I'm Slippy have the class to capitalise on the carnage.
County FinalI'm SlippyOpen SecretRockymountainbleu
B
Early leaders collapse late
25% probability
If Sainte Lucie and Cappa Hill go too fast early
The pace duel will set up the race for closers, with prominent runners also feeling the effects of a strong gallop. Tassarolo's recent Hogan form and Open Secret's Elliott polish make them dangerous.
TassaroloOpen SecretCounty FinalIfallgoeswell
C
Prominent survivors prevail
15% probability
If the prominent pack manages to avoid serious interference
One or two from the prominent wall find clear water and kick away from rivals who get hampered. Its Bilbo's De Bromhead polish and Coyote Spirit's class could see them through.
Its BilboCoyote SpiritWholelotofbusinessMonbeg Park
D
Front runners steal march
5% probability
If both leaders get an uncontested lead and kick clear
Sainte Lucie or Cappa Hill exploit the prominent congestion behind them to build an unassailable advantage. Only viable if the prominent pack neutralises itself completely.
Cappa HillSainte LucieCounty FinalI'm Slippy
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Massive pile-up inevitable 2-3 out when prominent wall of 10 runners hits the business end - Monbeg Park, Its Bilbo, Coyote Spirit most vulnerable
WATCH
Sainte Lucie's 5-pound claimer O'Dwyer may struggle to control early pace against experienced Cappa Hill, creating faster tempo than ideal
NOTE
County Final's 62-day break could leave him short of peak fitness despite hold-up style advantage
NOTE
Open Secret and I'm Slippy drawn to benefit most from anticipated prominent carnage with clear hold-up styles
WATCH
Wholelotofbusiness and Autumn Twist face serious fitness questions after 155 and 192-day absences respectively
3:35 — Hibernian Hotel Mallow Handicap Hurdle
3m · Good To Soft · HCAP · 16 runners
Onlymammycanloveme likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Ossifer Hops led; the map had Onlymammycanloveme in front.
Onlymammycanloveme won at 8.50 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
6 of 16 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Onlymammycanloveme
Prominent · 5
West Cork WildwayToor KhovWhatsavailableIshanGlenmalure Lady
Midfield · 5
SarandonOssifer HopsOne And OnlyCommittee MeetingWest Clare
Hold Up · 5
ThemanintheanorakGetaway CharlieJeriko De BauneWest Is AwakeThegraveyardbookie
Onlymammycanloveme is the sole confirmed front-runner and will dictate terms from the outset in this 16-runner handicap hurdle over three miles. With prominent runners like West Cork Wildway, Toor Khov, and Sarandon likely to track but not pressure early, the pace will be genuine but sustainable. The large field of hold-up horses including Getaway Charlie, Jeriko De Baune, Themanintheanorak, and West Is Awake will create a bunched finish as they try to pick off the leaders. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can track the pace and kick clear before the hold-up brigade arrives.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Runners Prevail
45% probability
If the early pace remains steady without pressure on Onlymammycanloveme
West Cork Wildway, Toor Khov, and Ishan can track the leader and have first run on the field turning for home. The hold-up horses will have too much ground to make up in a large field over this stamina test.
West Cork WildwayToor KhovOnlymammycanlovemeIshan
B
Hold-Up Charge Success
30% probability
If the pace becomes unsustainable with multiple prominent runners pressing forward
The early leaders will tie up in the closing stages, allowing strong finishers like Jeriko De Baune and Themanintheanorak to sweep past. Their fresher legs and tactical positioning will prove decisive in the final furlong.
Jeriko De BauneThemanintheanorakWest Is AwakeOne And Only
C
Front Runner Survives
15% probability
If Onlymammycanloveme faces minimal early pressure and gets loose on the front end
The topweight can dictate his own fractions and prove too tough to peg back despite carrying 167lbs. His recent course and distance victory shows he handles these conditions perfectly.
OnlymammycanlovemeWest Cork WildwayToor KhovJeriko De Baune
D
Outsider Ambush
10% probability
If the pace collapses completely with tactical riding throughout
Lightly-weighted runners like West Clare and Committee Meeting can benefit from the chaos of a slowly-run race. Their lower ratings become less relevant when the race turns into a sprint finish.
West ClareCommittee MeetingSarandonGlenmalure Lady
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Onlymammycanloveme must be allowed easy lead early or his topweight burden becomes insurmountable in finishing straight
WATCH
Jeriko De Baune and Themanintheanorak need strong pace up front to set up their hold-up tactics effectively
NOTE
West Cork Wildway's amateur jockey Andrew Burke-Ott must judge pace correctly from prominent position to maximize 7lb advantage
WATCH
Any early skirmishing between prominent runners would compromise their chances and favor hold-up horses
NOTE
Committee Meeting's trainer P J Rothwell has dismal 1/25 recent record but horse showed improvement when winning last start
4:10 — BAR 1 Betting Chase (Grade 3)
3m½f · Good To Soft · G3 · 4 runners
Classic Getaway likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Classic Getaway led, as the map showed.
Nowwhatdoyouthink won at 1.80 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Classic Getaway
Prominent · 1
Broomfield Bijou
Midfield · 1
Promontory
Hold Up · 1
Nowwhatdoyouthink
Classic Getaway will lead with Broomfield Bijou and Promontory likely to sit prominent in this small field, creating a sustainable pace without early pressure. The lack of genuine front-runners means the gallop will be controlled through the early stages, with the real racing beginning from the final mile. Nowwhatdoyouthink will drop in last from his hold-up position, relying on the pace quickening late to bring his stamina into play. This controlled tempo strongly favours horses with tactical speed and finishing kicks over pure front-runners.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Pace Suits Finishers
55% probability
If the early pace remains steady with Classic Getaway unchallenged
The gallop builds gradually, allowing hold-up horses to close strongly as the leaders tire from the third-last fence. Nowwhatdoyouthink's stamina and tactical positioning prove decisive in this stamina test.
If Broomfield Bijou and Promontory press Classic Getaway from halfway
The increased tempo stretches the field and prevents Nowwhatdoyouthink from getting competitive, with the race won by a horse that travelled kindly in the leading group. The winner emerges from those who stayed prominent throughout.
If no horse challenges Classic Getaway's lead until too late
The Willie Mullins-trained veteran uses his experience to control the fractions and kick clear approaching the final fence. His class advantage over this field proves decisive when allowed to dictate terms.
If the mare travels exceptionally well and quickens best from the second-last
Her recent form improvement continues as she outstays the others in the final furlong, with connections' confidence in stepping her up in class vindicated. The combination of good recent form and race fitness proves crucial.
Classic Getaway's jumping - any early mistakes could compromise his ability to control the pace and hand initiative to others
WATCH
Nowwhatdoyouthink's position after a mile - if too far back in this small field he may struggle to make up ground
NOTE
Broomfield Bijou's travelling - watch for confident body language that would suggest her Thurles form can translate to this higher level
WATCH
The pace through the middle section - if it becomes truly crawling, it could negate stamina advantages
4:45 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase
2m1f · Good To Soft · DEFAULT · 7 runners
Wingmen likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Ocastle Des Mottes led; the map had Wingmen in front.
Funiculi Funicula won at 1.73 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Wingmen
Prominent · 2
Funiculi FuniculaMister Pink
Midfield · 3
Major WellsScalpnagoonThe Burrow
Hold Up · 1
Ocastle Des Mottes
Wingmen appears the most natural front runner in this small field, with his prominent style and Elliott's positive recent form giving him control from the start. Mister Pink and Funiculi Funicula are likely to track closely given their prominent preferences, but neither looks aggressive enough to pressure Wingmen early. The lack of genuine pace pressure should create a steady rhythm that builds gradually, with the real contest developing from the last mile as the prominent runners try to kick clear of hold-up runner Ocastle Des Mottes. This moderate tempo strongly favours the prominent runners who can travel well within themselves before producing their finishing effort.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Wingmen Controls Throughout
45% probability
If Wingmen dictates an uncontested lead and maintains his jumping rhythm
Elliott's charge gets first run on his rivals and proves too strong when pressed, with the controlled pace suiting his front-running style perfectly. Funiculi Funicula and Mister Pink chase him home but can't reel him in despite their class advantages.
WingmenFuniculi FuniculaMister PinkOcastle Des Mottes
B
Mullins One-Two Punch
30% probability
If Funiculi Funicula travels smoothly and Ocastle Des Mottes gets the perfect pace setup
The Mullins pair capitalize on their superior class, with Funiculi Funicula's higher rating telling while Ocastle Des Mottes benefits from the steady gallop to close strongly. Wingmen's honest effort earns him a place but lacks the class to win.
Funiculi FuniculaOcastle Des MottesWingmenMister Pink
C
Mister Pink Returns Winner
15% probability
If O'Sullivan's runner shows no signs of his long absence and jumps fluently throughout
The 441-day break proves irrelevant as Mister Pink's proven class at this level shines through, benefiting from the solid pace to time his challenge perfectly. His superior course form gives him the edge over the Mullins runners in a tight finish.
Mister PinkFuniculi FuniculaWingmenOcastle Des Mottes
D
Outsider Surprise Package
10% probability
If the race develops into a war of attrition with jumping errors or falls affecting the principals
Either Scalpnagoon rediscovers his winning form or Major Wells proves his recent struggles were temporary, capitalizing on a chaotic finish. The moderate gallop allows one of the lesser lights to stay in touch and pounce late.
ScalpnagoonMajor WellsWingmenThe Burrow
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch for Wingmen to get an uncontested lead - if he dictates terms unchallenged, he becomes extremely dangerous
WATCH
Monitor Mister Pink's jumping early - any signs of ring-rustiness after 441 days could end his chances quickly
WATCH
Check if Funiculi Funicula travels smoothly in behind - his higher rating makes him the main danger if getting the right trip
NOTE
Observe Ocastle Des Mottes' position turning in - needs to be within striking distance given small field dynamics
NOTE
Watch for any early casualties at the fences - this small field cannot afford fallers affecting the pace scenario
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.