Archive›Curragh · 13 September 2026

Curragh

13 September 2026 · 8 races

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1:45 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Bold Lad Sprint Handicap

6f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 26 runners

3 vying for the leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Coul Angel won at 4.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

11 of 19 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Rosie FrithChicago PopeGenesis

Prominent · 10

Dark ThirtyUnique JourneyOcean's BreathDmaniacStaysound SusieRed EvolutionLohoobbSommelierThe Piper's CallI Bid You Ajou

Midfield · 5

Tango FlareThunderbearStrike RedBear On The RunSir Les Patterson

Hold Up · 8

SondadKekeCoul AngelToyotomiThe Highway RatHeadmasterDark AceAmiata

Rosie Frith, Chicago Pope, and Genesis ensure this 26-runner sprint is run at a furious gallop from the outset, with all three confirmed front-runners drawn across the track (10, 4, 25) and unlikely to yield an inch to one another. On yielding ground at the Curragh over 6f, a scorching early pace with three genuine tearaways in opposition creates a race that will be run in sections — fast early, with the field strung out and the pace beginning to tell from the 2f pole. The field contains more prominent-type runners than can realistically secure their favoured position — Sir Les Patterson, though mapped to midfield, is a natural hold-up horse pushed forward by the data distribution and is unlikely to be a factor in a pace-dominated shape. This race shape overwhelmingly favours hold-up and late-running profiles who can conserve energy through the first half and unleash off the strong pace in the final furlong, making stamina-tested closers the primary beneficiaries.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Pace Collapse, Closers Win

44% probability

If the three front-runners burn each other out in the first 3f and the field comes back to hold-up horses in the final 100 yards.

The fierce early gallop on yielding ground bleeds the pace horses dry inside the last 2f, opening a clear lane for hold-up horses tracking midfield to sprint through a tiring field; yielding ground amplifies the stamina test and rewards those who have been patient.

SondadCoul AngelKekeDark Ace

Prominent Sits, Pounces

28% probability

If a prominent-style runner settles just off the pace war in the first 2f and times a run to strike before the closers arrive.

With three horses fighting for the lead, a smart prominent type who resists the temptation to lead and parks just behind the chaos at the 4f mark will find their rivals' tanks empty at the crucial moment; Dmaniac and Unique Journey have the tactical profile to execute this.

DmaniacUnique JourneyDark ThirtyStaysound Susie

Front Runner Survives

18% probability

If one of the three pace-setters — most likely Chicago Pope — is allowed to dictate a fraction more controllably than rivals and kicks clear.

In a pace war, the most naturally gifted sprinter among the front trio can occasionally benefit if rivals over-race and come off the bridle earlier; yielding ground is a concern for this scenario as it compounds fatigue for any horse that led throughout.

Chicago PopeRosie FrithGenesisThe Piper's Call

Wide Draw Fades, Rail Wins

10% probability

If the draw becomes decisive and outside-drawn runners lose ground wide throughout, handing the race to low-draw horses who find the rail.

With 26 runners on a flat 6f track in yielding going, outside draws (20+) can find themselves covering extra ground on a rain-softened surface with no obvious bounce; low-draw closers angling to the rail in the straight gain a decisive positional edge.

Ocean's BreathKekeThe Piper's CallI Bid You Ajou

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Dmaniac is the Strand Scorecard top selection but has been absent for 133 days and has just 0W1P from 6 runs on today's ground type — watch for early market support to confirm stable confidence before treating the selection as reliable.|

WATCH

The three-way pace battle between Rosie Frith, Chicago Pope, and Genesis from the break is the defining event of this race — if any one of them fails to load or is slow away, the pace dynamic softens materially and changes the shape.|

2:15 — Tattersalls Ireland Super Auction Sales Stakes

6½f · Good To Soft · DEFAULT · 16 runners

Lead contested: Star Of State v Alpe d'HuezHISTORIC

How it ran

Atlantic Bridge led; the map had Star Of State and Alpe d'Huez in front.

Star Of State won at 1.20 — raced midfield, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Star Of StateAlpe d'Huez

Prominent · 6

Atlantic BridgeSwitching SidesTen ClaretsLord RagnarSapphire SunMehmas Star

Midfield · 5

The WindhoverShe's CoulKnockcurra DreamKillashee SupremeBelle Vision

Hold Up · 3

TreasurerFine LineSeptember Duke

Star Of State (draw 15) and Alpe d'Huez (draw 4) are both confirmed front-runners, meaning the pace will be genuinely contested from the outset over 6½f on yielding ground at the Curragh. Alpe d'Huez will look to establish early from the inside, but Star Of State under Ryan Moore from the far side will push for supremacy, creating an honest, pressured gallop that is unlikely to ease mid-race. The yielding conditions will amplify energy expenditure for those battling for the lead, gradually draining the front two through the final two furlongs. This race shape — a true, competitive pace with no let-up — classically favours prominent racers who can track the duel just off the pace and inherit momentum without burning reserves in the early battle; Switching Sides, who travels prominently and has won on similar going, is ideally positioned to exploit that dynamic.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Two Burn, Tracker Wins

52% probability

If Star Of State and Alpe d'Huez push each other hard enough that both fade inside the final furlong.

The contested pace drains both pace-setters on yielding ground, and a prominent tracker arriving with a clean run inherits the spoils; 6½f on soft-leaning turf suits those who settle just off a genuine gallop rather than making it.

Star Of StateSwitching SidesAtlantic BridgeMehmas Star

Star Of State Dominates Wire

26% probability

If Star Of State presses on from Alpe d'Huez early and Ryan Moore is able to take a comfortable lead mid-race, controlling the tempo.

Moore on a high-OR (107) horse is capable of softening the pace just enough to preserve his mount while still holding rivals wide; Star Of State's three runs in similar going yielding 1W3P confirm genuine aptitude for these conditions.

Star Of StateAtlantic BridgeSwitching SidesTen Clarets

Pace Collapse, Closers Late

14% probability

If the early duel is fierce enough that it causes a tempo collapse in the final quarter-mile, allowing hold-up horses to sweep through.

Treasurer and September Duke, both hold-up types, would be the primary beneficiaries if the race becomes a fast-then-slow accordion shape; however, the 6½f trip limits how much ground true closers can make up on yielding ground.

TreasurerLord RagnarFine LineSeptember Duke

Alpe d'Huez Fronts Up

8% probability

If Alpe d'Huez outbreaks Star Of State early and the Archie Watson runner settles into a controlled lead that demoralises rivals.

Alpe d'Huez won on standard going and placed on soft, and from draw 4 could steal a march before Star Of State (draw 15) gets organised; however, a 25-length thumping on his last run and OR of 85 versus Star Of State's 107 make this the least likely shape to produce the winner.

Alpe d'HuezSwitching SidesTen ClaretsAtlantic Bridge

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Star Of State and Alpe d'Huez are both confirmed front-runners — watch whether Ryan Moore (draw 15) and Colin Keane (draw 4) push each other hard enough to compromise both their finishing efforts, which is the key hinge point for the entire race shape.

WATCH

Switching Sides has 57 days between runs for the Harrington yard — watch the market and early movement to confirm fitness is not an issue, as the race shape suits this runner perfectly if tuned up.

WATCH

Treasurer is fitted with a hood and dropped significantly in class on one occasion — watch for whether David Egan opts to ride more prominently than the horse's hold-up tag suggests, as the 6½f trip on yielding could encourage a different tactical ride.

NOTE

Five unraced or lightly raced runners (The Windhover, Belle Vision, She's Coul, Killashee Supreme, September Duke) with unknown going preferences add traffic risk — watch the first furlong for any early interference that could disrupt the prominent horses tracking the pace-setters.

NOTE

The going report confirms Yielding across the card at the Curragh today — any further overnight rain would tighten the advantage for those proven on soft-leaning ground (Star Of State, Switching Sides) and further penalise the front-running pair.

2:50 — Moyglare Stud Stakes (Group 1)

7f · Good To Soft · G1 · 7 runners

Lead contested: Alpha v Ballinea StarHISTORIC

How it ran

Alpha led, as the map showed.

Sun Goddess won at 1.57 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

AlphaBallinea Star

Prominent · 3

Green EmpressDancing DestinyIbelieveicanfly

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

Sun GoddessControlla

Alpha (draw 2) and Ballinea Star (draw 3) are both confirmed front-runners and will contest the early lead from adjacent stalls, creating a genuine, competitive gallop from the outset over 7f on yielding ground at the Curragh. With two honest pace-setters pushing each other through the early and middle stages, the tempo is unlikely to be manufactured or false — this shapes as a thorough test of stamina and finishing quality rather than a sprint for home from a slow pace. Green Empress will likely sit prominently just behind the two leaders, while Sun Goddess and Dancing Destiny will be ridden to get into contention from midfield and prominent positions respectively in the straight. The honest, end-to-end gallop on yielding ground firmly favours hold-up and late-running profiles who can harness the pace set by others — Sun Goddess, tracking from off the pace with Ryan Moore, is ideally positioned to exploit this shape.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Finisher Strikes

63% probability

If Alpha and Ballinea Star force an honest pace that strings out the field on the yielding ground.

The two front-runners set a genuine gallop that burns off the less durable and leaves a premium on staying power and a well-timed late run; Sun Goddess, with her strong hold-up profile and six-from-six record on similar going, produces her trademark late surge under Moore.

Sun GoddessDancing DestinyGreen EmpressAlpha

Prominent Runner Pounces

19% probability

If the pace proves honest but not blistering, allowing a prominent tracker to conserve energy and quicken decisively in the final two furlongs.

Green Empress, stalking the leaders from second or third, finds a gap turning for home and her course-and-distance form on good-to-soft provides the edge; Dancing Destiny, another prominent type with a strong recent record, also benefits if the pace eases fractionally.

Green EmpressDancing DestinySun GoddessIbelieveicanfly

Front-Runner Outstays Field

11% probability

If Alpha or Ballinea Star controls the fractions cleverly enough to avoid burning out while still maintaining a winning lead into the straight.

On yielding ground over 7f, a front-runner who settles within the lead duel and quickens from the front can steal a march on closers if the pace is misjudged; Alpha's two 7f wins and strong sim-going record make her the most credible beneficiary if this shape materialises.

AlphaBallinea StarGreen EmpressDancing Destiny

Closers Caught Flat

7% probability

If the pace collapses or the race is tactically slow, with the field bunching late and hold-up horses failing to find room or momentum.

A falsely run race on yielding ground could paradoxically favour the prominent types who have tracked a slowing pace and produce a sprint finish from the front; Ibelieveicanfly, despite patchy recent form and the concern of racing just one day ago, and Controlla, returning from 78 days off, are unlikely beneficiaries but could creep into play.

IbelieveicanflyControllaDancing DestinyGreen Empress

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Sun Goddess and Green Empress — watch whether Moore travels ominously behind the pace or gets crowded with Green Empress sitting prominent ahead of her, as a traffic issue in the straight is the main threat to the Strand top selection.

WATCH

Alpha and Ballinea Star — the pace duel between these two adjacent front-runners on yielding ground could either set up the race perfectly for closers or, if one cries enough early, gift the other a soft lead that changes the entire tactical picture.

WATCH

Ibelieveicanfly — running just one day after her last start is highly unusual at Group 1 level; watch the pre-race market move carefully as a drifting price would confirm connections simply needed the run, while any market support would be extraordinary and worth noting.

NOTE

Ballinea Star and Controlla — both return from 78-day breaks under a trainer with zero wins from eight attempts in the past 14 days; fitness and sharpness are questions, particularly over 7f at the highest level, and their early behaviour in the market is worth monitoring.

NOTE

Dancing Destiny — if Green Empress moves for home early in the straight, watch whether Dancing Destiny sits alongside her rather than behind, as a two-pronged Joseph O'Brien challenge from prominent positions could complicate matters for the hold-up horses arriving late.

3:25 — BAR 1 Betting Flying Five Stakes (Group 1)

5f · Good To Soft · G1 · 18 runners

4 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Night Raider led, as the map showed.

Comanche Brave won at 3.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

8 of 17 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 4

Night RaiderJakajaroCharles DarwinIpanema Queen

Prominent · 7

Comanche BraveMission CentralStarlustAmerican AffairJm JungleBig GosseyPartisan Hero

Midfield · 4

RumstarCover UpBrusselsArgentine Tango

Hold Up · 3

Spicy MargTime For SandalsGazelle d'Or

Night Raider, Jakajaro, Charles Darwin, and Ipanema Queen all want to lead, guaranteeing a fierce early battle for supremacy over the first furlong on yielding ground at The Curragh — a surface that will amplify the cost of that energy expenditure significantly. With four genuine front-runners slugging it out, the pace will be searingly fast from the off, compressing the finish and turning this 5f into a genuine stamina examination for sprinters. The field holds more prominent and front-running types than can all secure their preferred position — Brussels and Argentine Tango are natural prominent racers who will be squeezed back into a midfield role they wouldn't ordinarily choose, diminishing their effectiveness. This race shape strongly favours horses with proven hold-up or late-running ability on soft/yielding ground, or prominent types who can sit just off a suicidal pace and pounce — making Comanche Brave's wide draw and Mission Central's closing kick particularly relevant profiles.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Pace Collapse, Closers Win

44% probability

If the four front-runners burn each other out inside two furlongs on yielding ground, creating an unsustainable early gallop that shreds their finishing reserves.

The leaders set a pace they cannot sustain on soft ground, leaving the field stretched and exhausted as the final furlong approaches; horses who have settled off the pace conserve precious energy to unleash a decisive late run.

Comanche BraveMission CentralRumstarCover Up

Leader Hangs On

26% probability

If Night Raider successfully asserts from draw 1 and the other pace horses fail to match his early stride, allowing him to establish a controlling lead.

Night Raider, with a record of winning from the front on soft and good-to-soft ground and drawing widest on the inside, could dictate a controlled pace that flatters his stamina; rivals racing against each other rather than him leaves him undisturbed.

Night RaiderJakajaroStarlustPartisan Hero

Prominent Survivor Prevails

21% probability

If the pace is strong but not catastrophic, and one prominent horse sits just behind the melee and outstays the front-runners in the final furlong.

A horse tracking the fierce early tempo from second or third position without over-committing gets a tow into the race and delivers at the death; soft ground ensures the true galloper rather than the speedster prevails.

Comanche BraveStarlustAmerican AffairJm Jungle

Hold-Up Horse Runs Through

9% probability

If the early pace is so strong that the whole field strings out and a genuine hold-up runner finishes fastest of all.

Spicy Marg or Gazelle d'Or, sitting last or near-last, encounter clear running in the final furlong as the leaders flounder; however, 5f on a flat course with 18 runners makes sustained forward momentum difficult to generate late.

Spicy MargGazelle d'OrTime For SandalsCover Up

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch Night Raider in the first furlong — if he fails to immediately break clear of Jakajaro, Charles Darwin, and Ipanema Queen in a four-way battle for the lead, all four pace-setters risk burning out by the 2f pole on yielding ground, setting up a dramatically fast-finishing scenario.

KEY

Watch Comanche Brave's positioning from stall 15 — if Billy Loughnane settles him smoothly just off the frantic early pace, he is ideally placed to deliver a powerful sustained run down the outside in the final furlong and would be the chief beneficiary of a pace collapse.

WATCH

Watch Mission Central's early behaviour from stall 4 — Ryan Moore must decide immediately whether to push forward into the chaos or drop back, and his record includes a 16th-place finish at 5f on soft, raising doubts about whether he handles this combination under pressure.

WATCH

Watch Argentine Tango and Brussels — both are naturally prominent horses unable to find their preferred position in this crowded pace scenario, and if they are shuffled sideways or back in the opening stages, their already-compromised tactical position will make a winning run extremely difficult to produce.

NOTE

Watch the going underfoot — the official 3:25 going is listed as Yielding rather than Good to Soft as declared, and if the ground is riding more testing than anticipated, the stamina bias will tilt even further toward hold-up horses with proven soft-ground form such as Comanche Brave and Rumstar.

4:00 — Goffs Vincent O'Brien National Stakes (Group 1)

7f · Good To Soft · G1 · 8 runners

Lead contested: Dr Rascal v Florida BayHISTORIC

How it ran

Florida Bay led, as the map showed.

Folsom Blues won at 6.50 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Dr RascalFlorida Bay

Prominent · 3

HaffnerGiant SequoiaPorto Vecchio

Midfield · 1

Trean

Hold Up · 2

Folsom BluesMonogram

Florida Bay and Dr Rascal are both confirmed front-runners and will contest the lead from the off, with Florida Bay drawn widest on the inside (stall 1) and Dr Rascal alongside in stall 3, meaning neither will yield ground easily. On genuine Yielding ground at The Curragh — notably softer in practice than the "Good to Soft" official description given the going reports all return Yielding — that contested early tempo is likely to be honest rather than scorching, testing stamina through the final two furlongs. Prominent racers sitting just behind the duel, particularly Giant Sequoia and Haffner, will be ideally positioned to pounce as the pace-setters tire without having been sucked into the battle themselves. This race shape most favours prominent-to-tracking types with proven seven-furlong stamina on soft ground, who can settle behind the duel and deliver a sustained, ground-eating finish rather than a sharp last-furlong burst.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Stalkers Pounce

58% probability

If Florida Bay and Dr Rascal burn each other off at an honest clip on yielding ground, leaving the race to horses sitting just off the pace.

Giant Sequoia and Haffner are perfectly placed to race prominently in behind the contested lead, switching off early before unleashing their finishing kicks from two furlongs out; both have strong seven-furlong form on similar ground and their trainers (A P O'Brien and A P O'Brien/Joseph O'Brien respectively) are operating from strong stables.

Giant SequoiaHaffnerTreanFolsom Blues

Front Runners Dominate

20% probability

If the pace is more controlled than expected and one front-runner asserts a decisive advantage early, dictating from the front without burning excessive energy.

Dr Rascal's unbeaten three-run record over seven furlongs on good ground makes him the most dangerous if he secures an uncontested lead, potentially winning on class; Florida Bay, the more experienced Ballydoyle lead type, is the alternative if she edges clear in the early exchanges.

Dr RascalFlorida BayHaffnerGiant Sequoia

Hold-Up Closers Land

14% probability

If the pace is genuinely fierce and the yielding ground stretches the field, creating a true test that sees the lead pair capitulate well inside the final two furlongs.

Folsom Blues and Monogram, both hold-up horses with tactical patience, would benefit most in this scenario, switching off wide before picking off the weakening leaders in the final furlong; Folsom Blues's win on soft ground and strong OR of 113 make her the more likely beneficiary.

Folsom BluesMonogramHaffnerTrean

Lightly Raced Improver Strikes

8% probability

If one of the unexposed one-run winners (Monogram or Porto Vecchio) has substantially more ability than their single run suggests and the softer ground unlocks hidden improvement.

Porto Vecchio's Weld stable sends horses primed on return from breaks and a 57-day gap does not concern this trainer; Monogram makes every yard a possibility if Colin Keane gets an uncontested lead but she is not a natural front-runner and is unlikely to get that luxury with two confirmed pacemakers in the field.

Porto VecchioMonogramTreanFolsom Blues

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch Dr Rascal and Florida Bay in the first furlong — if both refuse to yield the pace could be genuinely fierce, which would dramatically undermine both their chances and inflate the probability of SCENARIO_C benefiting Folsom Blues.

WATCH

Ryan Moore on Giant Sequoia is worth tracking through the first three furlongs — if he is able to slot in second or third behind the lead without being squeezed wide, he is perfectly positioned to dictate the outcome of SCENARIO_A from the front of the chasing pack.

WATCH

The going is officially Good to Soft but every race today at The Curragh has returned Yielding — horses who have soft-ground form (notably Folsom Blues) carry a meaningful hidden edge over those whose form is exclusively on good ground.

NOTE

Haffner's low-confidence Strand tag warrants scrutiny: he has been beaten by Giant Sequoia (7f, good) and if Giant Sequoia reproduces that form with Moore aboard, the selection pecking order may invert on the day — watch market moves between the two A P O'Brien runners.

NOTE

Porto Vecchio and Monogram, both one-run winners stepping into Group 1 company, are effectively unknown quantities; if either is backed with unexpected support in the final markets, treat it as a meaningful signal from connections given neither has public form to justify front-rank pricing.

4:35 — Comer Group International Irish St. Leger

1m6f · Good To Soft · DEFAULT · 7 runners

Scandinavia likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Queenstown led; the map had Scandinavia in front.

Scandinavia won at 1.36 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Scandinavia

Prominent · 2

Jan BrueghelTrustyourinstinct

Midfield · 3

QueenstownArabian ForceTennessee Stud

Hold Up · 1

Leinster

Scandinavia is the confirmed front-runner here and, with Ryan Moore in the saddle, will dictate from the outset at a controlled, sustainable gallop over 1m6f on Yielding ground at the Curragh. The field contains a glut of prominent-running types — Queenstown, Arabian Force, and Tennessee Stud are all natural front-to-midfield racers who will be unable to secure their preferred position, forced to race in a compressed group behind Scandinavia rather than alongside him. This means Scandinavia gets a soft, uncontested lead, setting a rhythm entirely of his own choosing, with no genuine pressure from any rival capable of burning him up early. The field's redistribution of prominent types into the pack further compresses the chasing group, making it difficult for hold-up horse Leinster to get a clean run through, and the race shape overwhelmingly favours a front-runner who can dictate and quicken — in this case, a horse with a perfect 5-from-5 record in similar conditions and the same tactical role.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Scandinavia Controls Unchallenged

68% probability

If Scandinavia is allowed to stride clear in front without any rival willing or able to apply sustained early pressure, leaving him to set his own fractions.

Moore dictates a measured pace on Yielding ground, and when he kicks turning for home Scandinavia's class and unbeaten record over this trip and beyond asserts itself decisively. The redistribution of Queenstown, Arabian Force and Tennessee Stud into the chasing pack means no rival is positioned or fresh enough to reel him in.

ScandinaviaJan BrueghelTrustyourinstinctQueenstown

Prominent Trio Apply Pressure

16% probability

If Queenstown, Arabian Force or Tennessee Stud break sharply and push forward to contest the lead, forcing Scandinavia into a faster early pace that takes its toll late.

A genuinely contested gallop on Yielding ground stretches the field more than expected, and a prominent racer who recovers best from the early scrapping claims the prize. In this shape, Jan Brueghel and Trustyourinstinct, both proven at the trip and in similar going, are best placed to capitalise if Scandinavia's finishing kick is blunted.

TrustyourinstinctJan BrueghelQueenstownArabian Force

Late Closers Swoop

10% probability

If the pace is genuinely strong enough to soften up the leaders and Leinster gets a clean passage through the compacted midfield group.

Leinster's hold-up style suits a fast-run race, but the structural problem is that the horses who would create that pace are themselves prominent types mapped out of position, reducing the likelihood of a truly strong gallop developing. Trustyourinstinct, with her sharp form figures and proven Yielding-ground record, is a more likely beneficiary than Leinster if any late opportunity opens up.

TrustyourinstinctLeinsterJan BrueghelArabian Force

Chaos In Compressed Pack

6% probability

If the overflow of prominent types results in positional scrimmaging early, creating a muddling pace that brings the whole field together in a bunched finish.

A scrambled race from which anything might emerge suits longer-priced runners who find clear daylight on the outside, but this outcome requires multiple rivals all refusing to settle — a genuinely low-probability scenario given Moore's ability to manage Scandinavia's position cleanly from the front.

QueenstownTennessee StudArabian ForceTrustyourinstinct

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Trustyourinstinct is the only rival whose style, form trajectory and trainer form profile gives her a genuine winning chance if Scandinavia encounters any interference or underperforms — watch Declan McDonogh for an aggressive early position to stay close to the pace.

WATCH

Queenstown is the redistributed runner most likely to press forward toward Scandinavia early — if Wayne Lordan sends him up to make it a two-horse lead battle, the pace dynamic changes and the scenario probabilities shift toward Scenario B.

WATCH

The Yielding ground is notably softer than the Good conditions Scandinavia has won on in his last three starts — not a concern given his Yielding win over 1m4f in soft, but any late-race softening in the going should be noted when assessing his finishing kick.

NOTE

Tennessee Stud and Arabian Force, both mapped out of their natural position, are worth monitoring in the early stages — if either breaks sharply and goes forward, they could compress the race shape and tighten the margins behind Scandinavia, benefiting Jan Brueghel and Trustyourinstinct in the chasing group.

5:10 — Moyglare ''Jewels'' Blandford Stakes (Group 2)

1m2f · Good To Soft · G2 · 10 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Jennifer Jane led, as the map showed.

Thundering On won at 2.25 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Jennifer JaneLiltSnapretend

Prominent · 3

TimeforshowcasingWemightakedlongwaySpicy Margarita

Midfield · 1

Shaool

Hold Up · 3

Thundering OnRed LetterSymbol Of Majesty

Jennifer Jane, Lilt, and Snapretend are all confirmed front-runners in a 10-runner field at 1m2f on yielding ground, meaning the pace will be genuine from the outset with no tactical dawdling — this is a contested lead that will stretch the field across the Curragh straight early. Jennifer Jane has the widest recent evidence of leading and winning over this trip on good ground, while Lilt and Snapretend will push to get close, creating a strong gallop that will test stamina thoroughly in the soft-trending conditions. The field also holds more hold-up types than can naturally settle at the rear — Shaool is redistributed to midfield on the map but is a genuine sit-and-sprint horse who will be racing out of role if the pace is as fierce as projected, limiting its effectiveness. With yielding ground, a truly-run race, and stamina at a premium, this shape strongly favours quality hold-up and late-running profiles with proven class over this trip and in testing ground — particularly those with the engine to sustain a run from off the pace without needing a slow pace to manufacture a gap.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Pace Suits Closers

48% probability

If Jennifer Jane, Lilt, and Snapretend fight for the lead and set a genuine searching gallop that tests stamina on yielding ground.

The contested early pace burns off the front-runners and weakens those prominent types who followed them into a fast opening, leaving the race open for quality hold-up horses to reel them in from the 2f pole. Red Letter's relentless form record of placing in heavy-traffic races and Thundering On's class and finishing power are ideally positioned to pounce.

Thundering OnRed LetterSymbol Of MajestyTimeforshowcasing

Front-Runner Steals It

25% probability

If one of Jennifer Jane or Lilt breaks cleanly and controls the tempo at a fraction below maximum, conserving enough to kick clear in the straight.

A measured but honest gallop allows the leader to relax in front before quickening off a true pace, punishing closers who must cover extra ground on the yielding surface. Jennifer Jane's recent course-and-distance win on good ground and Lilt's unbeaten record when able to dictate make both live threats if they steal a march on each other.

Jennifer JaneLiltSnapretendTimeforshowcasing

Class Horse Cuts Through

18% probability

If the pace is fierce enough to gut the field but Thundering On, rated highest at OR 117, produces a mid-race move under Ryan Moore that buries the closers before they can respond.

Moore exploits the tactical intelligence advantage, threading Thundering On into striking range at the top of the straight and unleashing a run that the genuine hold-up horses cannot match for sheer class. Timeforshowcasing and Symbol Of Majesty, both stepping up in class and trip, could benefit from a similar mid-race surge if the first two home tire.

Thundering OnTimeforshowcasingSymbol Of MajestyRed Letter

Pace Collapse, Lucky Survivor

9% probability

If the front-runners check each other early but then fatigue on the yielding ground, leaving a prominent tracker to pick through tired rivals without a genuine sustained run.

A messy, uneven gallop with a ragged tempo rewards a horse who sits just off the leaders and avoids the scrimmaging — Wemightakedlongway or Timeforshowcasing could be that beneficiary if the race falls apart tactically. This is the least likely shape given how determined each of the three pace-setters is to lead.

WemightakedlongwayTimeforshowcasingSnapretendLilt

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Jennifer Jane, Lilt, and Snapretend will all break looking to lead — watch for a fierce opening quarter-mile that could burn off the entire field, particularly on yielding ground which will amplify the stamina test significantly.

KEY

Thundering On is the Strand Scorecard top pick but Ryan Moore must thread through a big field from hold-up; watch for traffic at the top of the straight as the pace-setters fan across the course and gaps close quickly on a galloping track like the Curragh.

WATCH

Shaool is a genuine hold-up horse who will be racing out of role in a pace-dominated field — Ben Coen will need to improvise and if Shaool ends up racing closer than ideal his finishing kick will be blunted; watch for him being shuffled into an awkward position early.

WATCH

Lilt returns after 91 days off for Haggas — if she is short of peak fitness and fades after pressing for the lead she will be a false line for those who follow her in the market, but if sharp she could prove seriously underrated at OR 105.

NOTE

Red Letter has a spotless record of placing in this trip and going band (four places from four qualifying runs) — watch whether Colin Keane settles her far enough off the contested pace to save enough for a sustained run in the final 2f, as she consistently delivers without winning.

5:45 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Northfields Handicap

1m2f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 23 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Perry Mason led; the map had High Degree and Sky Captain and Kai Lung in front.

Orandi won at 41.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently.

4 of 22 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

High DegreeSky CaptainKai Lung

Prominent · 9

Summer Is TomorrowAmadeus MozartEastwatchFixationPerry MasonOrandiRibeeIron FistPierre Royal

Midfield · 8

Manton BayLord MassususRetracementBay ColonyGod Of PowerAlphonsus LiguoriApercuGenuine Article

Hold Up · 3

Adelaide RiverLips FreedomJohnny Soda

Three genuine front-runners — High Degree, Sky Captain, and Kai Lung — ensure this 1m2f handicap is run at a relentless gallop from the outset on Yielding ground, with no prospect of a falsely-run race in a field of 23. High Degree (draw 7) and Sky Captain (draw 2) are proven pace-setters at this trip and will press each other from the off, while Kai Lung adds a third early enforcer that will prevent any of them dictating on their own terms — the result is a genuinely searching test of stamina that will expose any horse not truly getting the distance. Yielding ground all day at the Curragh amplifies the stamina demand further, meaning horses who are ridden with restraint from a position just off the pace and can sustain their effort through the final two furlongs hold the clearest structural advantage. Prominent hold-up types who travel well in the slipstream and produce one clean run should dominate; true closers will need daylight in time. The field also holds more prominent-style horses than can all secure their natural position — God Of Power, Alphonsus Liguori, Apercu, Johnny Soda, and Genuine Article are genuine pace-prominent types who are likely to find themselves shuffled wider or further back than ideal, diluting their effectiveness in what is already a crowded early pace scenario.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Pace Suits Stalkers

44% probability

If the High Degree–Sky Captain–Kai Lung trio burn each other out up front, horses who travel prominently just off the pace and sustain their run from 2f out dominate.

The relentless early gallop on Yielding ground sets up a true stamina examination, and horses settled in the first pursuit group — close enough to pounce but not burning fuel — are ideally placed; Ribee, Summer Is Tomorrow, and Fixation all fit this profile with proven form on this going.

RibeeSummer Is TomorrowFixationPerry Mason

Pace Collapses, One Leads

26% probability

If one of the three front-runners establishes a clear advantage early and the others capitulate or miss the break, a controlled lead at a sustainable tempo becomes available.

High Degree is the class act among the pace-setters and has won at 1m on Good and placed at 1m2f, so if Sky Captain and Kai Lung are neutralised, High Degree could dictate at a manageable clip and prove very hard to catch; Summer Is Tomorrow and Amadeus Mozart, who are comfortable tracking a lead, would be the main dangers.

High DegreeAmadeus MozartSummer Is TomorrowPerry Mason

Closers Arrive Too Late

18% probability

If the pace is so fierce that it compresses the field and late-movers find daylight only inside the final furlong.

Adelaide River and Lips Freedom are genuine hold-up types who would need the pace to be truly suicidal and a clean passage through 23 runners — possible but requiring everything to go right; in a field where several nominal hold-up runners are actually pace types pushed back (reducing true cover for closers), this scenario is a secondary chance rather than a structural favourite.

Adelaide RiverLips FreedomManton BayRetracement

Pace Chaos, Flukey Result

12% probability

If the three-way early battle causes interference, bunching, or a chaotic early gallop that disrupts the race shape entirely.

With 23 runners on Yielding ground and multiple jostling front-runners, a messy race can present opportunities for a well-drawn, lightly-raced improver to capitalise on disruption; Alphonsus Liguori (211 form, unbeaten at 1m) and God Of Power are naturally prominent horses squeezed into a less favourable mapped position who could benefit if chaos creates gaps — though their redistributed role materially limits confidence.

Alphonsus LiguoriGod Of PowerPierre RoyalManton Bay

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

High Degree, Sky Captain, and Kai Lung are all confirmed front-runners — watch for a fierce early tussle between them that could cause significant bunching and interference among the 23-runner field in the opening furlongs.

WATCH

Alphonsus Liguori and God Of Power are naturally prominent horses who may attempt to push forward from draws 1 and 12 respectively, creating additional early crowding on the inside rail and potentially blocking midfield runners.

WATCH

Ribee (draw 22) and Genuine Article (draw 23) are drawn very wide and will likely need to make ground laterally in the opening stages on Yielding ground — watch for energy lost crossing to a better racing line.

NOTE

Eastwatch has a history of failing to place on faster going but has a placed effort at 8f on Heavy; if the Yielding ground deteriorates further as the card progresses (all eight races declared Yielding), this horse's chance improves materially late in the day.

NOTE

Several horses including Bay Colony (131 days), Sky Captain (105 days), and Adelaide River (59 days) return from extended absences — watch the market moves on these runners in the final hour before post time for any fitness signals from their connections.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 13 September 2026.

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