1:40 — 1xBet.ie Proud Partners Of Irish Sport Irish EBF Maiden
5f · Good · MDN · 12 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
2:10 — Cavalor Equine Nutrition Irish EBF Fillies Maiden
1m1f · Good · MDN · 8 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
2:40 — 1xBet.ie Supporting Irish Sport Irish EBF Fillies Maiden
7f · Good · MDN · 10 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
3:15 — Glenroyal Hotel And Shoda Café Minstrel Stakes (Group 2)
7f · Good · G2 · 7 runners
Power Blue likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Audience led; the map had Power Blue in front.
Power Blue won at 2.10 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Power Blue
Prominent · 2
East HamptonBig Gossey
Midfield · 3
Zodiac BearDorsetDuckadilly
Hold Up · 1
Audience
Power Blue is the lone confirmed front-runner and, on Good to Firm ground at the Curragh over 7f, is likely to stride straight to the lead and set a controlled, honest but not frenetic gallop — crucially, without a genuine rival to push him along. Big Gossey and East Hampton are the legitimate prominent types who will sit closest to Power Blue, tracking in second and third, while Zodiac Bear, Duckadilly, and Dorset — all natural prominent racers — are squeezed into a midfield cluster they would not naturally occupy because the race simply cannot accommodate five horses in the front three. Audience, a hold-up type, will be last or near-last from the outset and faces the biggest ask on a track that, while fair, rewards those with early position on a fast surface. The tactical verdict is clear: this race shape strongly favours the horse who can dictate or sit closest to a single, uncontested leader, making Power Blue and the tracking pair of Big Gossey and East Hampton the best-placed profiles — true hold-up running is structurally disadvantaged here, and the redistributed prominent types may find themselves in traffic at a critical point.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Power Blue Controls Cleanly
67% probability
If Power Blue is allowed to dictate an uncontested, measured gallop and quickens on his own terms from 2f out.
Power Blue sets fractions he is comfortable with on Good to Firm and never faces a serious challenge for the lead, meaning his stamina reserves are intact when he kicks; the trackers Big Gossey and East Hampton are best placed to benefit if he weakens late, but if his class holds, the leader is very hard to peg back.
Power BlueBig GosseyEast HamptonZodiac Bear
B
Prominent Pair Strike Late
18% probability
If Big Gossey or East Hampton press Power Blue enough to empty him inside the final furlong.
A fractionally stronger pace sees Power Blue tied up close home, handing the initiative to the most alert of the tracking pair; Big Gossey's recent winning form over 6f-7f on Good ground and East Hampton's runner-up profile in similar conditions give both the profile to pick up the pieces.
Big GosseyEast HamptonZodiac BearDorset
C
Redistribution Chaos Mid-Race
9% probability
If the crowded midfield bunch — Zodiac Bear, Duckadilly, Dorset — creates interference or forces a wide passage that burns pace from an unexpected source.
One of the displaced prominent types forces through on the outside earlier than ideal, injecting a mid-race surge that scrambles the race shape and opens a gap for a horse with residual energy; Zodiac Bear, who has the best form figures at this trip and going combination of the three, is most likely to capitalise if he can find daylight.
Zodiac BearDorsetDuckadillyBig Gossey
D
Closer Pounces Late
6% probability
If the pace collapses sharply in the final 2f and Audience is able to weave through a wall of tiring bodies.
Audience would need a combination of fast early fractions exhausting the field and a clear run materialising almost simultaneously — both are unlikely given the controlled single-leader tempo anticipated; a seven-year-old with a recent form string showing double-figure finishes in similar conditions makes this the lowest-probability shape.
AudienceZodiac BearDuckadillyEast Hampton
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Power Blue's early stride pattern — if Rossa Ryan is forced wider than stall position suggests or Big Gossey comes out fast beside him, even a brief early duel could fundamentally change this race shape and undermine the dominant scenario.
WATCH
Zodiac Bear and Duckadilly both attempting to push forward from redistributed midfield positions in the first furlong could create a bunching incident on the stands side, putting East Hampton in particular at risk of a checked run.
WATCH
Dorset's going form — three consecutive finishes of 7th-or-worse on Good ground raise a genuine question about whether Ryan Moore will be able to produce a forward move even if he gets a clean run, potentially turning a tactical note into a form issue.
NOTE
Audience's sectional position in the final 2f is worth monitoring purely as a pace barometer — if she makes any meaningful ground on the leaders, it signals the early pace was stronger than anticipated and that the redistribution chaos scenario (C) carries more live weight than its 9% probability suggests.
NOTE
Big Gossey's age (nine) means his condition sharpness from a 21-day break is a key watch — if he travels smoothly in the first half of the race and his ears are pricked, the tracking scenario is firmly on; if he is ridden along before the turn, discount him quickly.
3:50 — Racing World 50th Anniversary Irish EBF Fillies Handicap
1m · Good · HCAP · 6 runners
Mallavelly likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Kirkland Sioux and Mallavelly led, as the map showed.
Kirkland Sioux won at 6.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Mallavelly
Prominent · 1
Sanctijude
Midfield · 2
Kirkland SiouxGlitter And Glory
Hold Up · 2
OrchidaceaePink Oxalis
Mallavelly is the confirmed front-runner and, with only one genuine pace-setter in a six-runner field, she is set to control this race from the front at a sustainable, unflustered tempo on Good to Firm ground. Sanctijude and Kirkland Sioux carry prominent profiles but, with Mallavelly already occupying that role and the field compressed, they are unlikely to race in their natural position — Mallavelly is most likely to secure the lead uncontested, with Sanctijude potentially slotting in second and Kirkland Sioux and Glitter And Glory, both natural prominent types, pushed back against their instincts into midfield. The hold-up pair Orchidaceae and Pink Oxalis will track from the rear, relying on a strong final-furlong kick on a flat, undemanding track that historically rewards those who can quicken off a steady gallop. This race shape — a controlled, single-pace-setter scenario on fast ground — most favours horses with a proven turn of foot who can pick up off a genuine but uncontested tempo, tilting the tactical balance toward prominent racers who get close to Mallavelly early and stay competitive into the straight.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Mallavelly Controls, Holds On
68% probability
If Mallavelly leads unchallenged throughout and the pace stays honest but not excessive, denying closers a clean run at her.
Mallavelly dictates on the front end with Colin Keane setting a metronomic tempo, and any horse that tracks her closely through the race is best placed to pounce; a flat mile at Curragh in fast ground rewards those who conserve energy near the pace rather than making up ground from far back.
MallavellySanctijudeKirkland SiouxGlitter And Glory
B
Prominent Stalker Pounces Late
16% probability
If a prominent tracker such as Sanctijude or Kirkland Sioux sits a length or two off Mallavelly and produces a clean, well-timed challenge inside the final furlong.
Sanctijude, with winning form over a mile in Good conditions and a strong jockey booking in Dylan Browne McMonagle, is ideally suited to latching onto the leader's heels and overhauling her late; Kirkland Sioux's recent Curragh win over this trip on Good ground also makes her dangerous in this shape if she can recover her natural position.
SanctijudeKirkland SiouxMallavellyGlitter And Glory
C
Hold-Ups Swoop From Rear
10% probability
If Mallavelly's pace proves genuinely quick enough to stretch the field and create a gap for the hold-up horses to exploit late.
Orchidaceae has the best recent form profile in similar going conditions with three wins and three places in nine comparable-going runs, and a strong finishing kick would make her dangerous in this shape; Pink Oxalis has the class to be competitive but her record in similar going is modest and she faces a significant ground to make up from the rear.
OrchidaceaePink OxalisSanctijudeMallavelly
D
Glitter And Glory Finds Rhythm
6% probability
If Glitter And Glory overcomes her natural prominent style being compressed into midfield and produces an uncharacteristically strong sustained run through the straight.
Glitter And Glory has consistent placed form on Good ground and over this trip, but her style-fit concern and a cold trainer strike rate of 0/24 in the last 14 days are material headwinds; this scenario depends on her racing well out of role, which the evidence tags as unlikely.
Glitter And GlorySanctijudeOrchidaceaeKirkland Sioux
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Mallavelly — if Colin Keane finds the front unchallenged as expected, watch whether she is allowed to roll along at her own pace or is pressured early by Sanctijude, as that distinction will determine whether she holds on or fades inside the final furlong.
WATCH
Sanctijude — Dylan Browne McMonagle is likely to try to position her directly behind Mallavelly; if she gets a clean passage into the straight on the flat Curragh mile, she is the most dangerous individual to the leader given her win over this trip and going.
WATCH
Kirkland Sioux and Glitter And Glory — both are genuine prominent types who will not find their natural position in this race; watch whether either attempts to push forward early and thereby inject more pace than the current map assumes, which would reorder the pace scenario entirely.
NOTE
Orchidaceae — with the best sim-going record in the field (8/9), she is the hold-up runner most likely to benefit if the pace collapses late, but she must generate momentum from the back of a small field with few horses to track — her run-style in this shape is inherently high-risk.
NOTE
Pink Oxalis — 37 days off the track is the longest absence in the field; if she shows any fitness concern in the preliminary stages or fails to travel smoothly for Jack Kearney (3), her chances of landing a late blow from the rear diminish sharply.
4:25 — 1xBet.ie Proud Supporters Of Irish Racing Curragh Cup (Group 2)
1m6f · Good · G2 · 8 runners
Al Riffa likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Trustyourinstinct won at 7.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Al Riffa
Prominent · 2
IllinoisTrustyourinstinct
Midfield · 4
Tennessee StudGreen ImpactFlorestaHappy Pharoah
Hold Up · 1
Dallas Star
Al Riffa is the confirmed front-runner here, and with only one genuine pace-setter in an eight-runner field over 1m6f on Good to Firm ground at the Curragh, he is set to control proceedings from the front at a sustainable, measured tempo without significant pressure. Illinois and Trustyourinstinct will look to sit prominently just behind, with the remaining pack — including those redistributed further back — tracking through the middle. The race is likely to develop into a steadily-run affair until Al Riffa quickens entering the straight, where those with the tactical speed to respond from just off the pace will hold a distinct advantage over true hold-up operators. This race shape strongly favours those racing close to, but not at, the pace — horses able to track Al Riffa's controlled gallop and sustain a challenge over the final two furlongs, making Illinois and Trustyourinstinct the best-positioned profiles. Several runners — Tennessee Stud, Green Impact, Floresta, and Happy Pharoah — are naturally prominent types who cannot all secure their preferred position, and one or two will be forced to race in a more restrained role than suits them, compressing the midfield and muddying the hold-up picture.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Lead, Clear Straight
58% probability
If Al Riffa dictates an uncontested, moderate pace and has enough in reserve to quicken decisively once the field turns for home.
Al Riffa controls the tempo entirely, denying rivals a true test of stamina, and his prominent-tracking pursuers Illinois and Trustyourinstinct are best placed to challenge as he turns for home; the Good to Firm ground suits a race run at an honest but not brutal gallop, rewarding tactical speed over pure stayability.
IllinoisTrustyourinstinctAl RiffaHappy Pharoah
B
Pace Collapses, Closers Swoop
18% probability
If Al Riffa sets an overly slow pace that compresses the field and allows genuine hold-up runners to produce a late burst.
A crawl up front bunches the field and turns the race into a sprint over the final furlong, nullifying the prominently-drawn advantage and opening the door for Dallas Star or any runner who can find an unobstructed run late.
Dallas StarIllinoisTrustyourinstinctGreen Impact
C
Contested Gallop Suits Stayer
14% probability
If redistributed prominent types press Al Riffa from early, lifting the tempo and transforming this into a true stamina examination.
A stronger-than-expected gallop filters out the less genuine stayers and rewards runners with the deepest reserves over 1m6f on fast ground; Illinois's recent winning form over this distance and Floresta's progressive profile at the trip make them the prime beneficiaries of a searching pace.
IllinoisFlorestaTrustyourinstinctTennessee Stud
D
Out-of-Role Runners Cause Chaos
10% probability
If multiple redistributed prominent types push to the front early and create an unexpectedly erratic or high-tempo race.
Tennessee Stud, Green Impact or Happy Pharoah force a chaotic early pace that upsets the expected race shape, leaving those who settle smoothly in midfield as the race falls apart in the straight; in this fractured scenario class and finishing power over the trip become the deciding factors.
IllinoisTrustyourinstinctFlorestaHappy Pharoah
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Al Riffa's pace — watch whether Dylan Browne McMonagle sends him clear immediately or allows the field to compress, as that single decision will determine whether this is a true test of stamina or a sprint for home.|
WATCH
Tennessee Stud, Green Impact, and Happy Pharoah are all naturally prominent types who cannot all find their position; jostling in the early stages for the rail or a prominent berth could create a fractured early gallop and cause trouble in the first half-mile.|
WATCH
Trustyourinstinct is unproven beyond 1m2f — watch how he travels as the pace settles over the back straight, as any sign of labouring before the turn will indicate the trip stretching his stamina.|
NOTE
Dallas Star is the only true hold-up runner in the field; if the pace is anything other than very slow he should get his ground-gaining opportunity late, but Rossa Ryan will need a clean run from the outside gate.|
NOTE
Floresta's quick turnaround (11 days) is worth monitoring in the paddock — she won well last time, but back-to-back efforts within a fortnight at Group 2 level against older horses over a longer trip merits observation before the race.|
5:00 — James Nolan Bar Kildare Nursery Handicap
6f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners
Lars Soldier likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Lars Soldier and Belle Island led, as the map showed.
I Ready won at 6.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up.
3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Lars Soldier is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine rival to force the pace, will slide into an uncontested lead from the front, dictating a sustainable gallop on Good to Firm ground over six furlongs. Tradewinds will press from a prominent position to his outside, but without a challenger matching Lars Soldier stride for stride early, the pace is unlikely to be truly searching. Behind them, Seven Nation Army, Belle Island, Lucy's Promise, and Woodlawn Lily are all genuine hold-up types pushed forward on the map because the field carries more off-the-pace runners than can realistically race from the rear — in practice, most will settle in a tightly-bunched midfield group with little genuine cover. This race shape strongly favours Lars Soldier and Tradewinds, who will dictate terms from the front and be hardest to peg back on a flat, fast track where a controlled lead is rarely surrendered cheaply at six furlongs at the Curragh.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Leader Controls
62% probability
If Lars Soldier leads from flag fall and is allowed to dictate a regulated pace with no serious early pressure.
Lars Soldier sets his own fractions on Good to Firm ground, rationing his effort through the first four furlongs before quickening under Wesley Joyce to maintain a decisive advantage; the field, bunched and without a genuine presser, is left chasing shadows. Prominent types nearest to the pace are best placed to chase, but the leader's controlled energy expenditure through the early stages is the decisive tactical edge.
Lars SoldierTradewindsSeven Nation ArmyBelle Island
B
Prominent Pair Grind Out
20% probability
If Tradewinds presses Lars Soldier hard enough to force a genuine pace duel that sets up a straight fight between the two.
The two horses at the head of affairs run a proper race at each other through the middle portion, leaving both slightly vulnerable late — but the strongest of the pair wins a contested finish as the hold-up horses fail to close from too far back on fast ground. Tradewinds, with recent 6f form and a yard in strong shape over the fortnight, is positioned to benefit most if Lars Soldier fades.
If the pace is genuinely strong enough that the leaders tie up inside the final furlong, gifting a late-finishing type a rare winning opportunity.
A true hold-up horse would need to find the field strung out and the front-runners emptying — an unlikely scenario given the lack of natural pace pressure in this race, but Desert Alchemist and Seven Nation Army have both shown the ability to pick up from mid-division on similar ground. The scenario is discounted because the redistributed runners are not true closers in nature and the pace is expected to be steady rather than burning.
If the pace collapses into a muddled, slowly-run affair that sees the whole field race in a cluster and the race becomes a sprint from two furlongs out.
In a race run at modest tempo, raw speed off the bend decides matters and the horse with the clearest passage and most residual energy wins in a bunch finish. Belle Island and Woodlawn Lily hold each-way claims only in this scenario, but their recent form figures make them very marginal beneficiaries at best.
Belle IslandWoodlawn LilyTradewindsLucy's Promise
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Lars Soldier's price and fate hinge on whether Wesley Joyce can find an uncontested lead within the first furlong — watch the draw and early stride, because any crowding away from the gates could cost him the initiative that makes him dangerous.
WATCH
Tradewinds is wearing headgear and represents a yard in form; if she tracks Lars Soldier closely rather than pressing, she becomes the most likely beneficiary if the leader flattens out in the final 100 yards.
WATCH
Seven Nation Army carries a pace-fade flag and has disappointed badly in three straight starts — Dylan Browne McMonagle is an elite jockey but the horse's own pattern of fading late on Good ground should temper any confidence in a revival here at 61 days off.
NOTE
The Going Report confirms Good to Firm at 5:00 rather than the listed Good — this is meaningful for Desert Alchemist, whose sole form hint came on soft ground, and may reduce the likelihood of any late-finishing type sustaining a meaningful challenge in the straight.
NOTE
Four runners in this field are genuine hold-up types all competing for the same ground at the back of the pack; watch for traffic and interference inside the final two furlongs if they all come wide simultaneously in search of a clear run.
5:30 — Final Furlong Podcast With 1xBet.ie Irish EBF Maiden
1m4f · Good · MDN · 7 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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