Archive›Curragh · 22 August 2026

Curragh

22 August 2026 · 8 races

✓ Historic — full access

Read from the in-running comments·How often this is right →

1:05 — Coolmore Stud St Mark's Basilica Irish EBF Maiden

7f · Good · MDN · 16 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

1:40 — Moloney's Bar And Music Venue Maiden

1m2f · Good · MDN · 14 runners

Let's Smash It to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Let's Smash It led, as the map showed.

Acula won at 2.38 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

8 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Let's Smash It

Prominent · 5

SunatiaSaxony CharmsLord DarraghHandaniWill You Stop

Midfield · 4

The AustrianRoyal Ballet BlueGiordanoAcula

Hold Up · 4

ZarenakarenaMontevetroDesert SwingArd Ri Na Heireann

Let's Smash It is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 14-runner maiden and, with no genuine rival to apply early pressure, Ben Coen can dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop from the front on good ground over 1m2f at the Curragh. The prominent contingent — Handani, Lord Darragh, Will You Stop, and Saxony Charms — will press forward to track but none is likely to force the pace into a true test, meaning the tempo will be honest rather than fierce. Acula is a genuine hold-up type redistributed to the midfield on the map because the rear end of this field is oversubscribed with closers; Dylan Browne McMonagle will likely find Acula racing further back than the map suggests, which constrains its chance in a shape that does not generate a strong late sectional. This race shape — a controlled front-runner setting a sustainable pace with a compact prominent group — strongly favours prominent-to-lead profiles that can travel kindly and quicken in the straight without having burned off energy chasing a hot pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Lead, Prominent Win

62% probability

If Let's Smash It sets a measured pace and the prominent group tracks comfortably into the straight.

Let's Smash It dictates a fair gallop and the race assembles itself in a tidy line behind, meaning the horses sitting second to fifth are perfectly positioned to pounce from two furlongs out; on good ground at the Curragh this shape is a classic prominent-runner's race. Handani and Lord Darragh, both with placed form on identical good ground at this trip range, are ideally suited and their jockeys (Hayes, McAteer) have the experience to time the challenge from a tracking position.

HandaniLord DarraghSaxony CharmsSunatia

Pace Collapses, Midfield Swoops

18% probability

If Let's Smash It goes too hard early and ties up in the final furlong, opening the race to midfield runners.

A modest OR-83 front-runner carrying 134lbs over 1m2f on good ground could simply run out of fuel if it overcooks the early fractions under pressure from prominent rivals, creating a vacuum that suckers in the midfield; the straight at the Curragh is long enough for a well-timed run to land. Montevetro, with strong placed form over 10f on Standard and a patient Seamie Heffernan in the plate, is the profile that benefits most from a collapsing pace.

MontevetroAculaArd Ri Na HeireannDesert Swing

Prominent Group Bunches, Chaos

13% probability

If multiple prominent types jostle for position early and create a messy, uneven pace through the first half.

In a 14-runner maiden with four genuine prominent types fighting for the same ground, traffic and interference can disrupt rhythm and produce an uneven tempo that plays into the hands of a horse with tactical versatility; Will You Stop has solid course-and-distance form (3rd and 4th over 10-12f on good at the Curragh) and Andrew Slattery knows his own horse intimately. Saxony Charms, with headgear pointers and two placed runs over 10f on good, also has the gears to exploit a fractured pace.

Will You StopSaxony CharmsLord DarraghSunatia

Lightly Raced Type Improves

7% probability

If one of the unexposed three-year-olds with limited form shows sharp improvement on its previous run.

Royal Ballet Blue is a debutant with unknown going profile, while The Austrian and Giordano have shown modest form but carry the potential of lightly-raced sorts trained by shrewd handlers; a significant step forward from any of these on first or second time at this trip could produce a winner that the market has underestimated. The Austrian, handled by Mrs John Harrington with Shane Foley in the saddle, is the most plausible beneficiary given the stable's record with improvers.

The AustrianRoyal Ballet BlueGiordanoAcula

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Let's Smash It sets the entire pace map — if Ben Coen is unable to find the lead cleanly at the start, the race loses its only confirmed front-runner and the tempo becomes unpredictable with the prominent group potentially bunching.|

WATCH

Acula's redistribution to midfield on the map should be noted: Dylan Browne McMonagle will almost certainly have this hold-up type racing further back than shown, and if the pace is moderate, a late run from the rear may simply not be enough on this track.|

WATCH

Handani and Sunatia are both from the D K Weld yard — watch for any tactical instructions that see one of them ridden more conservatively as a second string, as the stable runs both in the same race with two different jockeys.|

NOTE

Royal Ballet Blue is a debutant with no going profile recorded — any market move in the morning should be treated seriously given the absence of public form and the often-shrewd Jack Foley stable with unexposed types.|

NOTE

The Austrian has had 82 days off since a modest debut seventh, but Mrs John Harrington and Shane Foley rarely appear in maidens without purpose — monitor the market for signs of stable confidence on what would be a significant step forward.|

2:15 — Mitsubishi Electric Handicap

6f · Good · HCAP · 12 runners

Bear On The Run to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Genesis led; the map had Bear On The Run in front.

Bear On The Run won at 15.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Bear On The Run

Prominent · 3

Chicago PopeGenesisRock Iguana

Midfield · 4

FinikaMoltophinoJon RiggensGotta Catch'em All

Hold Up · 4

KekeHowd'yadoitGavooGo Athletico

Bear On The Run is the one confirmed front-runner in this field and, having been off the track for 372 days, will likely be ridden conservatively to dictate on his own terms rather than pressured into a suicidal gallop — the pace will be honest but controlled, creating a single-file, tempo-managed contest rather than a war up front. Chicago Pope and Genesis are the natural prominent horses who will look to track Bear On The Run closely through the first two furlongs, ensuring there is no false dawdle but also no explosive speed surge. The hold-up brigade — Keke, Howd'yadoit, Go Athletico, and Gavoo — will be hunting for momentum off that steady early fractions, but with the pace neither scorching nor falsely slow, they need a genuinely strong gallop to close from the rear in six furlongs. Several horses tagged as redistributed (Finika, Moltophino, Jon Riggens, Gotta Catch'em All) are true hold-up runners forced into a midfield map position because this field contains more horses wanting to race off the pace than the race shape can comfortably accommodate at the rear. The race shape strongly favours prominent racers who can sit just off the lone front-runner and pounce entering the final two furlongs, as the controlled early pace will not burn off hold-up horses completely but will reward those with tactical positioning over those forced wide or deep in the field.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Stalkers Strike

54% probability

If Bear On The Run sets a controlled but honest pace and Chicago Pope or Genesis track him in second or third, enabling a well-timed challenge from two furlongs out.

With a sustainable gallop set by a lone front-runner returning from a lengthy absence, those sat just behind on the bridle get first run at the straight and can repel hold-up horses who need more tempo to close ground on 6f.

Chicago PopeGenesisBear On The RunGavoo

Front Runner Holds On

20% probability

If Bear On The Run is allowed to dictate completely unchallenged and the hold-up horses find insufficient tempo to close down in the straight.

A year off the track could mean Daniel James Murphy sends Bear On The Run out with controlled energy and, with no real pace pressure, he could simply lob along and kick clear; Dylan Browne McMonagle is exactly the jockey who can manage such a ride with authority.

Bear On The RunChicago PopeGenesisGavoo

Hold-Up Closers Pounce

16% probability

If the pace quickens more than expected in the final three furlongs and the genuine hold-up horses find the run of the race from a deep position.

Keke has course-and-distance form and natural finishing speed, while Howd'yadoit has won off this mark before; both need a strong-enough gallop to make their late runs meaningful over only six furlongs.

KekeHowd'yadoitGo AthleticoGavoo

Midfield Shuffle Through

10% probability

If the race becomes congested mid-pack and a redistributed hold-up type manages to thread through for an unlikely prominent challenge.

Horses like Gotta Catch'em All, who is in career-best form having won twice recently, could benefit if gaps open late, though their natural trailing style is compromised by being mapped ahead of their comfort zone.

Gotta Catch'em AllGavooFinikaGo Athletico

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Bear On The Run's returning fitness is the pivotal unknown — if his 372-day absence means he ties up in the final furlong, the race opens dramatically for Chicago Pope and Genesis who are poised just behind.

WATCH

Finika and Gotta Catch'em All are both in excellent recent form but their natural hold-up style is compromised by redistribution to midfield — watch whether Ryan and Rutledge push forward early or drop in regardless, as that decision will define their chance.

WATCH

Chicago Pope has a 70-day break but Ben Coen on a Murtagh-trained horse returning fresh at the Curragh over a trip the horse has won twice on is a combination that demands respect — watch for an aggressive early move to take the prominent berth.

NOTE

Genesis drops in trip from recent 5f outings to 6f today — the stamina question over the longer distance at a pace likely to be honest rather than slow is worth monitoring, especially if Bear On The Run bowls along and the early fractions are quicker than Genesis wants.

NOTE

Rock Iguana's jockey Jared Huggan is a 10-pound claimer operating at a venue and trip with limited relevant course form (2/8 sim-going) — watch for positional errors early if the field compresses behind the front-runner heading into the straight.

2:50 — Alpha Centauri Debutante Stakes (Group 2)

7f · Good · G2 · 5 runners

Alpha to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Alpha led, as the map showed.

Green Empress won at 3.75 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Alpha

Prominent · 2

IbelieveicanflyBlonde Over Blue

Midfield · 1

Green Empress

Hold Up · 1

Dancing Destiny

Alpha is the sole confirmed front-runner in a five-runner field and will stride to the front unchallenged from the outset, setting what is expected to be a sustainable, controlled gallop over Curragh's seven furlongs on good ground. Blonde Over Blue and Ibelieveicanfly are both prominent types who will track Alpha closely through the early stages, but neither has the profile to fire up a pace battle, meaning Alpha dictates tempo entirely on her own terms. Dancing Destiny, a natural prominent racer nudged back on the map due to the field's positional balance, and the unknown Green Empress will race in the rear half, but this is not a true hold-up field — there are more pace-committed types than genuine closers. The race shape overwhelmingly favours an uncontested front-runner allowed to travel sweetly and kick from the front, making prominent-to-lead profiles the clear tactical beneficiaries on this going.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Alpha Controls, Wins

71% probability

If Alpha settles comfortably in front and Lordan times his quickening run from two furlongs out without being pressured through the race.

Alpha dictates a measured pace, turns the race into a test of class and resolution from the front, and her two wins on good going at this trip underline the suitability of conditions. Prominent types tracking her closely have the shortest route to challenging, but without a pace injection from rivals, a front-runner who travels well has every advantage.

AlphaIbelieveicanflyBlonde Over BlueDancing Destiny

Prominent Pair Swamp

15% probability

If Alpha sets a genuinely moderate pace that produces a sprint finish and the prominent trackers have more gas in reserve.

Ibelieveicanfly, whose most recent win came over this exact trip at Curragh on good going, is ideally placed to pounce if the race slows and turns tactical, while Blonde Over Blue's single win also came on soft at seven furlongs showing the trip is within range. A messy, bunched finish from a crawl suits horses racing just off the pace with a finishing kick.

IbelieveicanflyBlonde Over BlueAlphaDancing Destiny

Late Rush From Rear

9% probability

If a genuinely slow early tempo creates a sprint that benefits the horses furthest back, and Green Empress's unknown style maps to hold-up.

Green Empress has placed in both career starts on good ground at six furlongs and stepping up to seven is the key unknown, but if her style proves to be hold-up she arrives with momentum in a sprint finish. Dancing Destiny's versatile form across five placed or winning efforts on good ground gives her the tactical experience to pick off tired rivals late, though neither is a true closer.

Green EmpressDancing DestinyIbelieveicanflyBlonde Over Blue

Pace Collapse, Upsets

5% probability

If Alpha goes off too fast for the conditions, burns through her rivals, and stops abruptly in the final furlong.

This requires Alpha to misjudge her own tempo, which is a low-probability outcome given Lordan's experience and the horse's settled front-running profile over this course and trip. Should it materialise, the two Joseph O'Brien-trained runners tracking closely — Blonde Over Blue and Dancing Destiny — are best placed to collect the pieces.

Blonde Over BlueDancing DestinyIbelieveicanflyGreen Empress

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch whether Ibelieveicanfly attempts to press Alpha for the lead from the gates — if she does, it converts this from a solo-leader race into a contested gallop that changes the entire shape.

WATCH

Green Empress is 56 days off the track and steps up in trip for the first time; if she shows signs of greenness or fails to travel, her chance evaporates quickly in a five-runner field with no pace to hide in.

WATCH

Dancing Destiny's redistribution to the rear of the map is artificial — if she instinctively pushes forward into her natural prominent position, the pace dynamic could compress and favour closers more than the current shape suggests.

NOTE

The going is a consistent Good across all distances at Curragh today, meaning no surface variance to exploit — horses with proven good-ground form hold a clear edge over those relying on easier conditions for their best performances.

3:25 — Coolmore Stud City Of Troy Tom Cooper Irish EBF Futurity Stakes (Group 2)

7f · Good · G2 · 6 runners

Lead contested: Nola Soul v Nail HouseHISTORIC

How it ran

Florida Bay led; the map had Nola Soul and Nail House in front.

Giant Sequoia won at 3.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Nola SoulNail House

Prominent · 2

Green DreamerGiant Sequoia

Midfield · 1

Florida Bay

Hold Up · 1

City of Dubai

Nola Soul and Nail House are confirmed front-runners and will fight for early supremacy over the opening two furlongs of this 7f Curragh contest, creating a genuinely contested gallop that should be honest rather than manic on good ground. Giant Sequoia, Green Dreamer, and City of Dubai are all natural prominent-racers who will track close to the pace, leaving Florida Bay — also a natural prominent type — shuffled back further than ideal given the volume of forward-going horses. The field holds more prominent types than can all secure their natural position, with Nola Soul and Nail House most likely to actually lead, and Giant Sequoia and Green Dreamer best placed to fill the true prominent berths behind them. A competitive, even gallop on a flat track with six runners strongly favours horses capable of travelling prominently and sustaining their effort through the final two furlongs — hold-up tactics are structurally disadvantaged here because there will be no slow early phase to exploit and no congestion to weave through.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Contested Lead, Prominent Wins

62% probability

If Nola Soul and Nail House push each other along and the gallop is honest from the outset, setting up a strongly run race.

The pace duel softens both leaders late, and a horse travelling prominently just off the lead — without expending energy in the battle — picks up most cleanly in the final furlong. Good ground at Curragh 7f rewards horses with a high cruising speed who can switch off slightly before asserting.

Giant SequoiaGreen DreamerNola SoulNail House

Leader Dictates, Stays On

20% probability

If Nola Soul (two wins, unbeaten) is allowed to stride clear without a serious early duel and controls tempo to suit herself.

The pace is comfortable enough that the leader preserves energy for the closing stages, and Nola Soul's unbeaten two-from-two record over this course and trip at Good going becomes the decisive factor. The prominent chasers cannot close the gap on a horse that has never been headed.

Nola SoulNail HouseGiant SequoiaCity of Dubai

Strong Pace Blows Leaders Out

12% probability

If the early duel between Nola Soul and Nail House is more intense than expected, burning both off turning for home.

A horse that has been restrained fractionally off the boil — such as Florida Bay, who has won at this trip and is trained by Aidan O'Brien — gets cover and produces a sustained late run as the front pair fade. Florida Bay's redistribution to midfield is a concern given its natural prominence, but it has the class record to capitalise if the race falls apart.

Florida BayCity of DubaiGreen DreamerGiant Sequoia

Class Edge, Quiet Day

6% probability

If the early gallop is surprisingly moderate and the race turns into a sprint from two furlongs out.

A high-OR prominent horse with tactical speed exploits the compressed pace and sprints clear before rivals can react; City of Dubai's OR of 120 and two-from-two form over 8f suggests class superiority even if the trip is a slight unknown. However this scenario depends on a shape that contradicts the two front-runners' profiles and is the least likely outcome.

City of DubaiGreen DreamerGiant SequoiaNola Soul

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch whether Nail House or Nola Soul blinks first in the opening two furlongs — if one tries to dominate outright rather than share the lead, the race shape changes decisively around both of them.

WATCH

Giant Sequoia is 56 days off the track; watch the market move in the hour before post — any significant support would suggest stable confidence that the layoff is irrelevant.

WATCH

Florida Bay is a natural prominent type buried in midfield by this race's pace volume — if Ronan Whelan cannot find a forward berth in the early strides, the horse will race outside its comfort zone and its chance shrinks accordingly.

NOTE

Green Dreamer drops back from 8f to 7f for the first time since winning at that trip — watch whether McDonogh positions him prominently or allows him to fill the role of a pace-follower, as the latter suits his profile in this shape.

NOTE

City of Dubai, also stepping back to 7f after two wins over 8f, will be worth monitoring for how aggressively W J Lee tries to hold a forward berth given the number of pace rivals; if he is forced wider or back, his chance is reduced.

4:00 — Neville O'Byrne Memorial Irish EBF Fillies Handicap

1m4f · Good · HCAP · 12 runners

4 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Navy Waters and Vanir led; the map had Marazion and Yousaynothingatall and Nellcote and Killyclogher Rose in front.

Yousaynothingatall won at 3.25 — was held up, where the map had it led.

1 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 4

MarazionYousaynothingatallNellcoteKillyclogher Rose

Prominent · 3

VanirNavy WatersNeo Smart

Midfield · 1

Letiza

Hold Up · 4

Denim And DiamondsRailwayview LadyBeauparcMy Girl Grace

Marazion, Yousaynothingatall, Nellcote, and Killyclogher Rose all want to be on or near the lead, creating a genuinely contested gallop from the outset over 1m4f on Good ground at the Curragh — stamina will be tested and the fractions are unlikely to be kind to those who press on without reserve. The pace duel between four legitimate front-runners will stretch the field early, meaning the strong pace is not simply predicted but structurally inevitable given how many horses need that position. Letiza is a genuine hold-up type redistributed to midfield on the map because the rear of the field is already packed; her true running style is rearward and her ability to influence the race from an unnatural position should be discounted. This pace shape emphatically favours resolute, well-stamped closers and strong mid-division travellers who can sit off a genuine gallop and pick up the pieces in the final two furlongs — horses like Navy Waters, Vanir, and Denim And Diamonds are best positioned by profile to capitalise.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Pace, Closers Strike

42% probability

If the four-way pace battle burns out the front-runners and the race sets up for a sustained late charge from behind the tempo.

Marazion, Yousaynothingatall, Nellcote, and Killyclogher Rose fight for position and consume each other's stamina reserves, leaving the race wide open entering the straight; Navy Waters and Vanir, both Good-ground performers with strong recent form, are ideally placed to swoopfrom mid-division with energy in reserve.

Navy WatersVanirDenim And DiamondsBeauparc

One Pace-Setter Dominates

28% probability

If one of the front-runners — most likely Marazion or Nellcote — establishes clear early control and dictates a measured, sustainable tempo.

Rather than burning out in a four-way duel, one leader settles into a controlled gallop that plays to their stamina and makes it harder for closers to close the gap; Marazion has the strongest form in this company at this trip and Nellcote's two-run form over 12f-plus on Good is sharp and progressive.

MarazionNellcoteKillyclogher RoseYousaynothingatall

Prominent Runners Dominate

20% probability

If the pace proves honest but not truly ruinous, and horses racing just off the leaders in the prominent group conserve enough energy to win.

Vanir in particular has an outstanding Good-ground profile at 1m2f-plus and has shown the ability to race prominently before quickening; a race that burns out the true front-runners but leaves the stalkers with enough fuel suits this profile well, and Navy Waters' course form and consistency at this trip make her a natural player.

VanirNavy WatersYousaynothingatallRailwayview Lady

Closers Pounce Very Late

10% probability

If the pace is extreme and the leaders tie up badly inside the final quarter-mile, opening the door for the deepest closers.

Denim And Diamonds and Railwayview Lady would be the beneficiaries of a truly punishing pace collapse, though both have inconsistent form and the latter has struggled in similar race shapes before; this scenario is the least likely because the genuinely held-up types are scarce and the redistributed Letiza cannot be relied upon to execute from her natural rearward position in this field.

Denim And DiamondsRailwayview LadyBeauparcLetiza

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Marazion and Yousaynothingatall may clash aggressively for the lead in the first two furlongs — watch for a fierce pace duel that could compromise both horses' stamina before halfway.

WATCH

Nellcote is lightly raced and steps into a competitive 12-runner handicap for the first time; she may find the pace scenario more turbulent than her small-field maiden form suggests and could be swamped early.

WATCH

Letiza is a genuine hold-up type running out of role in this field — if she is shuffled back to her natural position rather than the midfield shown on the map, she may need an even more extreme pace collapse than Scenario D requires.

NOTE

Navy Waters runs on just 10 days' rest with the tongue-tie retained — confirm market confidence at the off, as W J Lee booking for a horse with eight Good-ground runs at this trip suggests connections are primed for this specific race shape.

NOTE

Vanir's trainer J P Murtagh has only two runners in the 14-day window but this three-year-old's Good-ground record is the cleanest in the field — watch her market move as a possible stable confidence play against older rivals.

4:35 — Comer Group International Irish St. Leger Trial Stakes

1m6f · Good · DEFAULT · 7 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Queenstown won at 10.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

LeinsterAsakirDallas Star

Prominent · 3

CarmersQueenstownKizlyar

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 1

Layfayette

Leinster, Asakir, and Dallas Star all want to lead, guaranteeing an aggressive, front-loaded gallop over this testing 1m6f trip on Good ground at the Curragh. Leinster has the strongest recent front-running credentials, winning over 1m2f last time, while Asakir and Dallas Star will push him every yard from the off, meaning none of the three can settle and conserve energy as they might prefer. The resulting strong tempo will stretch the field early, burning out those who over-commit and playing directly into the hands of hold-up and prominent types with genuine stamina reserves who can produce a sustained late run on the flat. This race shape firmly favours hold-up and midfield runners with proven staying ability — Layfayette, Carmers, and Queenstown profile best off a strong pace set by horses who may have burned too many matches fighting for the front.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Pace Suits Closers

52% probability

If Leinster, Asakir, and Dallas Star burn each other out fighting for the lead, setting a genuinely strong gallop that cracks the pace-setters before the final two furlongs.

The sustained early tempo drains the front-runners before the home straight, opening the race up for those who have settled off the pace and can produce a powerful, relentless late run over the final two furlongs on Good ground. Layfayette (has won twice recently and handles this trip) and Carmers (won over 2m/16f in good form) are ideally placed to swoop, while Queenstown — proven in staying trips — also fits.

LayfayetteCarmersQueenstownKizlyar

One Front-Runner Dictates

25% probability

If Leinster or Asakir breaks cleanly and the others back off, allowing a single front-runner to control a sensible, measured gallop rather than a destructive duel.

A controlled pace would be far kinder to the leader's stamina reserves, potentially allowing them to steal a march turning into the home straight before rivals can close. Leinster, who won over 1m2f and has strong Curragh form, is the likeliest beneficiary if given a soft lead, with Asakir — unexposed at this trip as a 3-year-old — also capable of front-running to victory.

LeinsterAsakirCarmersKizlyar

Prominent Types Prevail

15% probability

If the early pace is strong enough to crack the leaders but not slow enough for pure closers to get back into contention, favouring horses travelling prominently just off the front.

Carmers, who races prominently and has proven form over this distance (won over 2m, placed over 1m6f), could slot in just behind the leader and time a run perfectly, while Kizlyar — prominent in style, with two recent wins and a strong jockey booking in Dylan Browne McMonagle — has the class to pounce.

CarmersKizlyarLeinsterQueenstown

Race Falls Apart Chaotically

8% probability

If the early three-way duel produces a stop-start, uneven pace rather than a true genuine gallop, creating a tactical mess over 1m6f.

An uneven tempo would muddle the race shape, potentially suiting a horse like Queenstown — who has a 300-day absence to overcome but has placed consistently in staying trips on Good ground — or Layfayette, whose recent winning form suggests he retains strong ability when conditions stabilise. Both handle the distance but their chances are tempered by the unpredictability of this scenario.

QueenstownLayfayetteDallas StarCarmers

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch whether Leinster, Asakir, or Dallas Star actually cedes the lead early — if none of them relents, the pace will be so strong that all three are likely to be spent before the final furlong.

WATCH

Queenstown's 300-day absence makes him a significant watch in the paddock and early in the race — if he shows any signs of ring-rustiness or races ungenerously, he can be discounted immediately.

WATCH

Kizlyar has had an inconsistent record in his last five runs including poor efforts at Leopardstown (10th) and the Curragh (9th over 1m6f) — his two recent wins were over shorter trips, so watch whether he sees this trip out fully.

NOTE

Asakir's weight allowance (126lbs vs 135lbs for older rivals) is a meaningful swing over 1m6f on Good ground — if the pace falls apart and becomes tactical, his youth and lighter burden could make him harder to catch than his limited experience suggests.

NOTE

Layfayette's rider Adam Caffrey is a relatively low-profile booking for a race of this nature — watch whether Caffrey tracks the right horses early, as the hold-up style only works here if he is poised to deliver a run between the 3f and 2f poles.

5:08 — Friends Of Moorefield GAA Handicap

6f · Good · HCAP · 31 runners

Glasarmi to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Mint Man led; the map had Glasarmi in front.

Clonmacash won at 7.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

8 of 25 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Glasarmi

Prominent · 9

ClonmacashPinar Del RioKiss Don't TellPoweracclaimOcean EchoCoincidental GloryCaislean Ni CuanRosatoPlatino Bianco

Midfield · 12

Cashel BlueAbsoluteassignmentBeat The DevilBattleforsupremacyAre You In Or OutIrish RumourRaven's CallCaffu ZafeenDe SongbirdFontaine KhaledShe's On The BallLady Landhort

Hold Up · 9

Soulful DivaMint ManTreasured RoyalHugo's GirlBold OptimistUnidosFour BlondesCladachChester Nimitz

Glasarmi is the sole confirmed front-runner in a 31-runner field and, crucially, faces no genuine pace rival who will pressure them from the front — this means a controlled, single-file gallop is the most likely race shape from the outset on Good ground over 6f at the Curragh. With Glasarmi able to dictate a sustainable tempo unchallenged, the race will be set up for horses that can track closely in behind and kick off that steady pace, rather than those waiting for a strong gallop to develop from the rear. The pack of prominent types — Clonmacash, Pinar Del Rio, Poweracclaim, Kiss Don't Tell, Ocean Echo, Coincidental Glory, Caislean Ni Cuan and Rosato — will jostle for position in the first two furlongs, creating some early scrimmaging in midfield even if the lead is uncontested. This race shape strongly favours close-tracking prominent runners who can sit just off the controlled pace and produce their effort from 2f out, rather than genuine hold-up horses needing a strong gallop to close into. Several runners tagged REDISTRIBUTED — including Cashel Blue, Absoluteassignment, Beat The Devil, Are You In Or Out and Battleforsupremacy — are true hold-up types forced into a midfield position on the map because the field holds more off-the-pace horses than the race shape can accommodate at the rear; of these, Cashel Blue and Absoluteassignment are most likely to secure a forward-enough berth given their natural tactical speed.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Glasarmi Dictates, Prominent Win

48% probability

If Glasarmi sets a controlled solo lead and the prominent trackers sit close enough to pounce at the 2f pole.

Glasarmi's uncontested tempo keeps fractions honest and creates a target that close-tracking prominent types can reel in smoothly off the turn; horses like Poweracclaim, Clonmacash and Coincidental Glory, comfortable just off the pace on Good ground, are ideally positioned to accelerate first.

PoweracclaimClonmacashCoincidental GloryPinar Del Rio

Prominent Scrimmage, Midfield Striker

26% probability

If the prominent pack creates enough early pushing and scrapping that a horse sitting just off the melee in midfield finds cleaner air and picks them off late.

The first two furlongs become busy as Clonmacash, Pinar Del Rio, Kiss Don't Tell and others all try to claim their natural ground, burning slightly more energy than the controlled pace suggests; a horse like Mint Man or Hugo's Girl, ridden patiently just behind the leading pack, threads through on the back of a relatively even tempo.

Mint ManHugo's GirlTreasured RoyalSoulful Diva

Glasarmi Goes Wire-To-Wire

17% probability

If Glasarmi, given a solo lead and a sustainable pace, is simply good enough on the day to hold on and run through the line.

On Good ground at 6f with no pressure, Glasarmi could dictate every fraction and still have enough reserve to find something when challenged inside the final furlong; the moderate gallop plays to Glasarmi's stamina-based profile and leaves the hold-up types without the closing pace they need to reel in a well-rated front-runner.

GlasarmiPlatino BiancoRosatoCaislean Ni Cuan

True Closers Overpower Late

9% probability

If the early pace is hotter than expected through the prominent cluster scrimmaging, allowing genuine hold-up horses to sweep past tired rivals late.

This scenario requires Glasarmi or the prominent runners to go faster than their natural rhythm suggests, and with so many of the field's hold-up types forced wide or blocked midfield due to redistribution, a late sweep is the least likely outcome; only a hold-up runner securing genuinely clear ground, like Mint Man or Treasured Royal, could realistically benefit.

Mint ManTreasured RoyalBold OptimistHugo's Girl

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 22 August 2026.

Tonight’s free races, in your inbox

Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.

One email a day. Unsubscribe whenever. Every race, every meeting →