Archive›Curragh · 28 June 2026

Curragh

28 June 2026 · 9 races

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1:10 — GAIN Equine Nutrition Irish European Breeders Fund Fillies Maiden

7f · Good · MDN · 14 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

1:40 — Dubai Duty Free Rockingham Handicap (Premier Handicap)

5f · Good · HCAP · 17 runners

Toca Madera likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Eclairage led; the map had Toca Madera in front.

Genesis won at 26.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.

3 of 16 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Toca Madera

Prominent · 6

Gazelle d'OrStag NightEclairageSarahmaeRed EvolutionDark Ace

Midfield · 5

MoltophinoBack Down UnderCuban GreyBuddy BattGenesis

Hold Up · 5

LikedbymikeErosandpsycheKerdosShadow Of The MoonHarry's Hill

Toca Madera is the lone confirmed front-runner in a 17-horse field on Good to Firm ground at the Curragh over 5f, and with no genuine rival willing to take her on for the lead, she is set to control tempo from the front without being pressured into a suicidal gallop. That said, the pace input behind her is substantial — Gazelle d'Or, Stag Night, Eclairage, Sarahmae, Dark Ace, and Red Evolution are all natural prominent racers who will be pushing for position in the first two furlongs, creating a competitive but not chaotic early dynamic. On Good to Firm ground at the Curragh over a straight 5f, an uncontested lead at a sound but manageable pace strongly favours the front-runner and those tracking closely in the slipstream, as the rail-hugging, prominent-racing profile typically holds an edge when the pace is honest but not extreme. The field contains more genuine prominent types than the race shape can accommodate — Moltophino, Back Down Under, Cuban Grey, and Buddy Batt are all natural front-of-the-field operators who are likely to find themselves shuffled into a midfield position they did not choose, with Gazelle d'Or and Toca Madera best placed to actually secure the coveted early spots.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Toca Madera Leads Unchallenged

52% probability

If Toca Madera gets a clean break and settles in front without a pace duel, controlling the race from flag to finish.

Toca MaderaGazelle d'OrStag NightRed Evolution

Prominent Stalker Pounces

26% probability

If a prominent racer tracks Toca Madera comfortably and pounces inside the final furlong as the leader's stamina is tested.

Gazelle d'OrSarahmaeRed EvolutionStag Night

Hold-Up Horse Storms Home

14% probability

If the early scramble for position burns pace enough to bring genuine closers into the race with a wall of horses to aim at late.

LikedbymikeErosandpsycheShadow Of The MoonKerdos

Chaos Scramble Mid-Pack

8% probability

If the sheer volume of prominent types causes early crowding that disrupts Toca Madera's rhythm and collapses the pace into a muddling contest.

MoltophinoCuban GreyBack Down UnderBuddy Batt

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Toca Madera — watch whether she gets a clean break from the stalls; if she jumps cleanly and establishes the lead uncontested inside the first furlong, the race is set up to her exact strengths and she becomes very difficult to peg back.

WATCH

Moltophino, Back Down Under, Cuban Grey, and Buddy Batt — all genuine prominent types who cannot all land their natural position; watch for crowding and possible interference in the first two furlongs as these four fight for berths they cannot all secure.

WATCH

Red Evolution — the 107-day absence makes fitness a genuine unknown despite the quality jockey booking of McMonagle; if she returns well her 5f Curragh form on Good is strong, but a first-run absence at this level carries real risk.

NOTE

Sarahmae — watch market moves given Hogan's yard is 3 from 13 over the last 14 days; she is lightly weighted at OR=91, has won twice recently, and a prominent draw combined with a quick turnaround could make her bigger in the race than the OR suggests.

NOTE

Dark Ace — stepping back in trip from 6f wins on Synthetic to 5f Good to Firm on turf for the first time; if he handles the faster surface and shorter trip the unexposed profile could be interesting, but both questions need answering simultaneously.

2:10 — Jebel Ali Racecourse & Stables Dash Stakes (Listed)

6f · Good · LST · 10 runners

Silk Braid likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Little Queenie led; the map had Silk Braid in front.

Big Gossey won at 3.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Silk Braid

Prominent · 3

Big GosseyTahcawinBodhi Bear

Midfield · 3

FregadaLittle QueenieTemperance

Hold Up · 3

Oh CeceliaCalifornia DreamerTango Flare

Silk Braid is the confirmed front-runner here, and with Colin Keane in the saddle for G M Lyons, she is likely to stride into a clear lead from the outset on Good to Firm ground over 6f at the Curragh. She faces no genuine front-running challenger in this field, meaning the pace she sets will be self-managed and sustainable rather than pressured — a controlled gallop that could play directly into her hands if she has enough class over these rivals. Big Gossey, Bodhi Bear, and Tahcawin will push forward from the prominent berths, applying some cover pressure but unlikely to match Silk Braid stride-for-stride early. This race shape — a single front-runner with a clear, uncontested lead on fast ground — heavily favours the leader and prominent horses who can travel close to the pace, as genuine hold-up types face a near-impossible task if the early tempo is not scorching. Note that the field holds more hold-up types than can realistically race from the rear: Fregada, Little Queenie, and Temperance are true hold-up horses who are mapped to midfield precisely because they cannot all get to the back of this field, meaning they will race out of their preferred role and their effectiveness in any late-closing shape is materially reduced.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Silk Braid Controls Unchallenged

62% probability

If Silk Braid takes up the lead cleanly and sets a measured, uncontested gallop that suits her natural rhythm.

Silk BraidBig GosseyBodhi BearTahcawin

Prominent Horses Collar Leader

20% probability

If Silk Braid's pace is slightly below optimal and the prominent quartet apply sustained pressure in the final two furlongs.

Bodhi BearBig GosseyTahcawinTango Flare

Hold-Up Horse Threads Through

12% probability

If the pace collapses dramatically in the final furlong and the field bunches, allowing a true closer to pick up ground.

Tango FlareOh CeceliaLittle QueenieFregada

Chaos Blunts The Favourite

6% probability

If Silk Braid misses the break or is crowded early, scrambling the pace and turning this into a rough, unsettled sprint.

TahcawinCalifornia DreamerBodhi BearOh Cecelia

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Silk Braid jumping cleanly — if Colin Keane gets her out smartly from whatever draw she has, the race could be over as a contest by the two-furlong pole; any stumble or crowding at the start is the main single danger to the favourite's chance.

WATCH

Temperance's return after 353 days off is a significant unknown — she carries the shortest race-fitness profile in the field by a wide margin, and if she shows any signs of over-freshness or greenness early, she could cause interference to horses around her in a ten-runner sprint.

WATCH

The three redistributed hold-up horses (Fregada, Little Queenie, Temperance) will all be competing for midfield positions they do not naturally want — watch for crowding or checking on the inside rail in the first two furlongs as they fail to find their preferred spots.

NOTE

California Dreamer's fitness for 6f is worth monitoring in the betting markets — if she drifts significantly pre-race it would confirm punter concern about the trip drop, which would be a useful signal about market confidence in a horse who is technically capable on the going.

NOTE

Bodhi Bear's draw and early position are worth noting at the off — if he can slot into second or third place behind Silk Braid without being shuffled back, his recent winning form and strong record on similar going make him the most likely beneficiary if the favourite is caught near the line.

2:45 — Dubai Duty Free Derby Festival Handicap (Premier Handicap)

1m · Good · HCAP · 13 runners

Perry Mason likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Zarathos led; the map had Perry Mason in front.

Pierre Royal won at 13.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Perry Mason

Prominent · 4

Far From DandyState ActorZarathosOrandi

Midfield · 5

Slieve BinnianCoeur d'OrPlayin CoolPretty Omagh GirlPierre Royal

Hold Up · 3

Lord MassususBooyeaRed Charlie

Perry Mason is the lone confirmed front-runner and, on Good To Firm ground over a flat Curragh mile, is expected to set a controlled, sustainable gallop without meaningful pressure from a genuine pace rival. The field, however, is saturated with prominent-style horses — Slieve Binnian, Coeur d'Or, Playin Cool, Pierre Royal and Pretty Omagh Girl are all natural prominent racers who cannot all occupy their preferred position, meaning several will be forced to race in unfamiliar midfield slots and their effectiveness will be compromised. Perry Mason's uncontested lead at a sensible tempo creates a race that plays squarely into the hands of prominent horses who do secure an early position — specifically Far From Dandy, Zarathos and State Actor — rather than the shuffled-back true hold-up types. The tactical verdict is clear: in a steady, front-runner-controlled mile on fast ground with a packed prominent group behind, horses who travel close to the pace without being caught in traffic — genuine prominent runners who get their position — are the profile to follow, while true hold-up runners must produce their best from the back of a potentially strung-out field.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Perry Mason Dictates Comfortably

52% probability

If Perry Mason secures an uncontested lead and sets a fair but manageable tempo that keeps the race honest without burning off his rivals.

ZarathosFar From DandyState ActorPretty Omagh Girl

Pace Quickens, Closers Strike

22% probability

If the contested prominent group forces a stronger-than-expected pace that sets up a meaningful late run for genuine hold-up horses.

Lord MassususBooyeaRed CharliePlayin Cool

Front Runner Holds On

17% probability

If Perry Mason's controlled pace is so modest that he clears out early, builds a decisive lead and the field cannot reel him in.

Perry MasonFar From DandyZarathosState Actor

Prominent Group Splits, Chaos

9% probability

If the overloaded prominent group causes crowding and interference turning for home, opening the door for a horse who has threaded through cleanly.

Pretty Omagh GirlPierre RoyalRed CharlieCoeur d'Or

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Perry Mason's early sectionals will set the tone for the entire race — if Leigh Roche is allowed to bowl along uncontested at a true pace, the front-runner/prominent profile dominates; watch whether Far From Dandy or Zarathos attempt to press him and alter the tempo.

WATCH

The cluster of displaced prominent horses — Slieve Binnian, Coeur d'Or, Playin Cool, Pierre Royal and Pretty Omagh Girl — all trying to work forward from mapped midfield positions creates a serious crowding risk turning into the straight; any interference here could produce dramatic position changes.

KEY

Zarathos and trainer Dylan Cunha arrive in strong form (4/24 over 14 days) and Dylan Browne McMonagle is a significant booking; watch how quickly he travels in the first two furlongs — if he settles into a prominent position without a fight, he is the one to beat in Scenario A.

WATCH

State Actor's 238-day absence is the longest layoff in the field by a wide margin; Colin Keane is a world-class pilot but even he cannot fully compensate for a horse returning cold into a Premier Handicap, and a slow start or lack of fitness at the two-furlong pole should be flagged early.

NOTE

Pretty Omagh Girl's most recent win came over this exact course, distance and going band — if Ben Coen slots her handy in the first few furlongs rather than accepting a midfield berth, her form profile makes her a live threat that the market may not fully respect.

3:20 — Dubai Duty Free International Stakes (Group 3)

1m2f · Good · G3 · 8 runners

Purview likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Sindria led; the map had Purview in front.

Purview won at 2.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Purview

Prominent · 2

HotazhellTrustyourinstinct

Midfield · 4

Isaac NewtonCrown Of OaksGeryonSindria

Hold Up · 1

Tiberius Thunder

Purview is the confirmed front-runner here and, with no genuine challenger for the lead, Colin Keane can dictate a controlled, sustainable tempo on Good to Firm ground over 1m2f at the Curragh — a track that rewards horses able to conserve energy before the final rise. The pace will be honest but not brutal, set by a horse who has proven he can both lead and quicken, which is a dangerous combination when unopposed. This field holds more prominent-minded types than can physically occupy those early positions: Crown Of Oaks, Sindria, Geryon, and Isaac Newton are all natural prominent racers who are mapped to midfield purely because the space in front is taken, meaning the race shape is unlikely to be genuinely cut up by them. The controlled lead suits a horse with tactical speed and a strong finishing kick — classically advantaging the horse who can travel in the slipstream of an uncontested front-runner and produce a powerful sustained finish, meaning prominent-to-midfield closers with a strong RPR and proven finishing ability on similar going are best placed.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Purview Leads, Kicks Clear

58% probability

If Purview is allowed to dictate an unchallenged, metronomic tempo and quickens decisively before the final furlong.

PurviewTrustyourinstinctHotazhellCrown Of Oaks

Sustained Run Suits Closers

22% probability

If the pace, though controlled, is consistent enough to string the field out and a horse travelling smoothly in midfield pounces on the run to the line.

TrustyourinstinctHotazhellCrown Of OaksIsaac Newton

Breakaway Pace Collapse

12% probability

If Purview goes too fast early under pressure from prominent rivals crowding the early stages, leading to a collapse in the final furlong.

GeryonIsaac NewtonTiberius ThunderSindria

Front-Runners' Day, All Change

8% probability

If the ground proves faster than declared and the early pace advantage compounds into a wire-to-wire runaway for a prominent position.

PurviewCrown Of OaksHotazhellTrustyourinstinct

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Purview's early positioning is everything — if Colin Keane is allowed to stride into a lead of two lengths or more within the first two furlongs, this race shape becomes very difficult for the rest of the field to disrupt.

WATCH

Crown Of Oaks has been off the track for 253 days; watch the market in the final hour for any signs of stable confidence, as a fresh, well-handicapped Haggas runner returning to form at this trip would be a significant threat if ready to run to her best.

WATCH

The redistribution of Isaac Newton, Geryon, Crown Of Oaks and Sindria into midfield positions means the early-race tactical picture could be congested and rougher than a straightforward lead-and-kick scenario — watch how quickly Moore, McMonagle and Carroll settle their mounts in the first two furlongs.

NOTE

Good to Firm conditions at the Curragh over 1m2f historically favour horses who can maintain a strong gallop up the rising ground to the finish — horses whose best form figures come on Soft or Heavy will find the surface quicker than ideal today.

NOTE

Trustyourinstinct's recent win came over 10f and today's step up to 10f+ (1m2f) on identical ground is a direct replay of his favoured conditions — monitor if his market position shortens late as a result.

3:55 — Dubai Duty Free Celebration Stakes (Listed)

1m · Good · LST · 7 runners

Alcantor likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Zodiac Bear led; the map had Alcantor in front.

Zodiac Bear won at 5.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Alcantor

Prominent · 2

TokenomicsZodiac Bear

Midfield · 2

DuckadillyAccredited

Hold Up · 2

CowardofthecountySpicy Margarita

Alcantor is the confirmed front-runner here and, with only one genuine pace-setter in a seven-runner field, is set to control proceedings from the front at a sustainable, uncontested tempo on Good to Firm ground at The Curragh. Tokenomics and Zodiac Bear are the natural prominent challengers who will look to track Alcantor through the early and middle stages, while Cowardofthecounty and Spicy Margarita are the legitimate hold-up horses who will be covered up and rely on a strong late surge. This field contains more prominent types than the map can accommodate — Duckadilly and Accredited are both true front-runners or prominent racers by nature but have been redistributed to midfield given Alcantor's dominance and the congestion near the front; Alcantor and Tokenomics are most likely to actually secure those forward positions. The uncontested, controlled pace on fast ground strongly favours horses that can race close to the pace and sustain their effort through the final furlong, giving a clear edge to prominent-position horses who travel well and quicken — pure hold-up tactics are a harder ask when the pace is not truly searching.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Alcantor Dictates Controlled Pace

68% probability

If Alcantor leads unchallenged and sets a fair-but-not-punishing tempo that stretches the field without exhausting the leaders.

TokenomicsZodiac BearAlcantorDuckadilly

Hold-Up Horses Land Late

14% probability

If the pace is genuinely strong enough to see out the prominent horses and the late closers get an unimpeded run into a weakening field.

CowardofthecountySpicy MargaritaTokenomicsZodiac Bear

Prominent Scrimmage Favours Fresh Legs

11% probability

If the congestion among the displaced prominent types causes interference or checks early, unsettling the rhythm of horses near the pace.

AccreditedDuckadillyTokenomicsZodiac Bear

Tactical Crawl Then Sprint Finish

7% probability

If Alcantor is restrained unexpectedly or the field collectively idles through the early furlongs, turning the race into a sprint from two out.

CowardofthecountyAccreditedZodiac BearSpicy Margarita

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Tokenomics — if it settles in second or third behind Alcantor on Good to Firm ground, its strong mile form gives it the clearest tactical position to pounce if the front-runner fades from two out.|

WATCH

Duckadilly and Accredited — both are natural prominent types mapped to midfield due to overcrowding at the front; watch the early stride for a scramble as they try to reclaim forward positions, which could cause interference.|

WATCH

Cowardofthecounty — returned to winning form last time but is a genuine hold-up horse relying on a pace that may prove insufficient; if Alcantor settles the field too quickly the closer's task becomes increasingly difficult.|

NOTE

Spicy Margarita — the 86-day absence combined with a recent run over 12 furlongs means fitness and the trip back down to a mile are both unknowns; watch market moves late for trainer confidence signals.|

4:35 — Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1)

1m4f · Good · G1 · 8 runners

Christmas Day likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Action and Bunyola Bay led; the map had Christmas Day in front.

Benvenuto Cellini won at 2.75 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Christmas Day

Prominent · 2

Benvenuto CelliniRaaheeb

Midfield · 4

James J BraddockActionShaihaanBunyola Bay

Hold Up · 1

Pierre Bonnard

Christmas Day is the confirmed front-runner here and, with no other horse likely to seriously dispute early, Ronan Whelan can dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop on Good to Firm ground over 1m4f at the Curragh. The pace will be genuine but measured — Christmas Day's record shows a consistent leader who does not capitulate, meaning this is not a dawdle but nor is it a war, and that creates a relatively compressed race shape through the first mile. Horses like James J Braddock, Action, Shaihaan and Bunyola Bay are all natural prominent types in form but cannot all occupy those berths simultaneously; in practice, Christmas Day gets the rail and the lead, while the remaining prominent types jostle for position just behind, burning more energy than they would ideally spend. This race shape — a controlled solo lead on fast ground at a classic trip — most strongly favours a horse with tactical versatility that can sit just off the pace, has proven stamina for 1m4f, and can produce a sustained run rather than a pure sprint finish; Benvenuto Cellini and Raaheeb fit that profile best, while the redistribution of multiple prominent types into the mid-pack slightly compromises their individual chances in slower-run scenario shapes. The field holds more front-running and prominent types than can all get their natural position; Christmas Day is virtually certain to lead, Benvenuto Cellini and Raaheeb are best placed to sit second and third, while Action, James J Braddock, Shaihaan and Bunyola Bay will be shuffled wider and further back than their trainers would choose.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Christmas Day Controls Cleanly

58% probability

If Christmas Day secures an uncontested lead and sets a fair but not punishing gallop, dictating from flag to finish.

Christmas DayBenvenuto CelliniRaaheebJames J Braddock

Strong Pace Plays Into Closers

19% probability

If the congestion behind Christmas Day causes early friction and the pace becomes genuinely strong, burning off several prominent types.

RaaheebPierre BonnardBenvenuto CelliniChristmas Day

Tactical Race, Sprint Finish

14% probability

If Christmas Day is allowed to crawl early and several horses creep up to challenge, turning it into a bunched sprint over 2f.

Benvenuto CelliniBunyola BayChristmas DayJames J Braddock

Outsiders Capitalise on Chaos

9% probability

If the crowded mid-pack causes interference or trouble in running, allowing a horse at long odds to emerge unscathed.

ShaihaanBunyola BayActionPierre Bonnard

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Christmas Day — watch whether Ronan Whelan is able to slot onto the rail uncontested in the first furlong; if another runner challenges him for the lead before the first bend, the pace will lift sharply and alter the entire race shape.

WATCH

James J Braddock, Action and Shaihaan — all natural front-runners forced back; monitor the early jostling between stalls 3 and 8 for potential crowding, bumping or a wide run that costs ground and energy before the race settles.

WATCH

Raaheeb — 65 days off the track is the single biggest unknown; watch his behaviour in the paddock and his early race demeanour for any sign of ring-rustiness before drawing conclusions about his chances.

NOTE

Benvenuto Cellini — Ryan Moore is likely to use his positional experience to slot into second or third on the inner early; if he is blocked or forced wide in the first half-mile by the prominent-type congestion, his race becomes significantly harder to win.

NOTE

Pierre Bonnard — his back-to-back 7th-place finishes at 12f on Softs are a form concern at this trip regardless of pace shape; watch whether Wayne Lordan rides him conservatively from the outset, suggesting the team are managing expectations rather than expecting a big run.

5:15 — Tulfarris Hotel And Golf Resort Maddenstown Handicap (Premier Handicap)

1m1f · Good · HCAP · 18 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Liberation Date led; the map had Listentodwindblow and How'sthebai and Antigua in front.

King Of Earth won at 5.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it.

5 of 16 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

ListentodwindblowHow'sthebaiAntigua

Prominent · 7

SatoyamaSummer Is TomorrowBobby McGeeRolltightManton BayStars Will ShineKing Of Earth

Midfield · 5

SanctijudeAnushkaPunica GranatumRyefield DasherLiberation Date

Hold Up · 3

BrownstownCherry Hill GirlMonvoe

Listentodwindblow, How'sthebai and Antigua are all confirmed front-runners who will contest the lead from the off on Good to Firm ground over 1m1f at the Curragh, virtually guaranteeing a strong, sustained gallop from the outset. With three horses fighting for the front, the pace will be genuine throughout, stretching the field and testing stamina as they turn for home, leaving little room for a tactical dawdle. The field also contains a significant surplus of prominent-running types — Sanctijude, Anushka, Punica Granatum, Liberation Date and Ryefield Dasher are all natural prominent racers who cannot all secure their preferred position and will be shuffled back into midfield, meaning the true pace picture is even more compressed at the front than the map suggests. This race shape strongly favours hold-up or late-finishing profiles who can travel comfortably off the strong pace and produce a sustained run from off the heels of the leaders in the final two furlongs, with genuine front-runners who can handle pressure and prominent horses with stamina reserves also in the mix.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Pace, Closers Land

44% probability

If the three-way battle for the lead produces a truly honest gallop that burns off the prominent pack and leaves the race open for horses coming from off the pace.

Bobby McGeeRolltightBrownstownCherry Hill Girl

Pace-Setter Survives Pressure

26% probability

If one of the three front-runners establishes a fractional lead or conserves enough energy to hold on as rivals burn fuel chasing them.

AntiguaListentodwindblowHow'sthebaiSatoyama

Prominent Hangers-On Prevail

19% probability

If the pace is strong but controlled enough that a well-positioned prominent horse just off the front trio travels into contention and outstays rivals in a grinding finish.

Bobby McGeeSatoyamaRolltightManton Bay

Redistributed Types Grab Position

11% probability

If the early pace is more ragged than expected and horses like Sanctijude or Anushka manage to slot into their natural prominent berths rather than being forced back.

SanctijudeAnushkaPunica GranatumKing Of Earth

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Bobby McGee has won his last three starts all on Good ground at 1m — the step to 1m1f is the only question, but his current form makes him the horse everyone else must beat if he handles the trip.

KEY

Antigua ridden by Ryan Moore could dictate if he gets a clear lead or settles just behind Listentodwindblow; Moore's ability to manage a front-running horse under pressure in a contested pace scenario is the critical variable to watch in the first three furlongs.

WATCH

How'sthebai has a worrying sim-going record on Good (1/5, no wins) and is heading into a three-way battle for the lead — if the ground is riding fast and the pace is fierce, this horse may empty badly in the straight.

WATCH

Liberation Date ran only two days ago and arrives in poor form; watch for any signs of absence or non-participation on the day, and if she does run, monitor how she handles the early pace having had no recovery time.

NOTE

The surplus of prominent-running types forced back — particularly Sanctijude and Anushka — means the midfield section will be congested early; watch for traffic problems on the straight run-in, especially for horses who need a gap to appear late.

5:45 — Dubai Duty Free Irish European Breeders Fund Ragusa Handicap (Premier Handicap)

1m4f · Good · HCAP · 14 runners

In My Teens likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Obscenity led; the map had In My Teens in front.

In My Teens won at 10.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

In My Teens

Prominent · 5

Cloud SeekerThe Real ScreamerMarazionWhat's Your GameFactual Fact

Midfield · 4

RetracementTruth Be ToldObscenityNavy Waters

Hold Up · 4

Dawn RisingThis SongisforyouStar HarbourRailwayview Lady

In My Teens is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with no significant challenger for the lead, will dictate from the front at a sustainable gallop on Good to Firm ground over 1m4f at the Curragh. The pace is unlikely to be truly searching, meaning the race will be set up as a procession from the front with a single sustained burst in the straight rather than a genuine stamina examination. This race shape — controlled, moderate tempo, single pace-setter — strongly favours horses able to track closely or peel off a compact midfield group with a turn of foot, particularly those with proven form on Good to Firm. The field holds more genuine prominent types than the race shape can accommodate: Retracement, Truth Be Told, Obscenity and Navy Waters are all natural front-rank horses who are likely to find themselves shuffled into midfield positions against their nature, making their challenges harder to time; of these, Obscenity and Truth Be Told have the class and recent form to most plausibly secure a forward berth if any do.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Lead, Track And Strike

55% probability

If In My Teens bowls along unchallenged at a measured gallop and those tracking within two lengths into the straight produce the strongest late kick.

MarazionFactual FactThe Real ScreamerObscenity

Prominent Types Surge Forward

20% probability

If several natural prominent horses — Obscenity, Truth Be Told or Retracement — push forward early and a more contested tempo develops, raising the pace.

Factual FactDawn RisingThis SongisforyouStar Harbour

Hold-Up Finishers Pounce Late

15% probability

If the pace is genuinely slow enough that the hold-up horses get a clean late run on the outside and the field fans wide in the straight.

Dawn RisingThis SongisforyouRailwayview LadyStar Harbour

Front Runner Wires Field

10% probability

If In My Teens is allowed a completely uncontested lead with a very slow early tempo and capitalises by quickening sharply two furlongs out.

In My TeensThe Real ScreamerCloud SeekerWhat's Your Game

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

In My Teens is the sole pace-setter — if Gary Carroll is allowed to dictate at a crawl unchallenged, the race could be run at an entirely false tempo that makes it impossible for hold-up horses to close.

WATCH

Retracement, Truth Be Told and Obscenity are all natural front-runners who may be forced wider or further back than they want in the early stages — monitor them jostling for position in the first two furlongs, as that friction could compromise all three.

WATCH

This Songisforyou returns after 287 days away (plus 23 jumps runs); even with Colin Keane aboard, a hold-up horse this far off a flat run is a significant fitness risk on a sharp Good to Firm surface.

NOTE

The going report consistently reads Good to Firm across all nine races today — faster than the advertised Good — which will sharpen the demands on stamina in the closing stages and may particularly disadvantage horses without confirmed fast-ground form.

NOTE

Marazion ran only 14 days ago; watch closely in the paddock and early running for any sign of jaded movement, as a quick turnaround at this level can be a positive (trainer form 6/37) or a fatigue signal.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 28 June 2026.

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