Glory To BeAsdanaTai Tam BayBint Majestic RoiAurora Nova
Hold Up · 5
Nancy JSarahmaeRion RubetteOh CeceliaGoofy Gander
Josh's Joy will set the pace from the front with minimal pressure in this 16-runner handicap, creating a sustainable tempo that allows the field to stay bunched. Glory To Be, Reimagined, Staysound Susie, Varshini and several other prominent runners will track within striking distance, while the hold-up horses Nancy J, Oh Cecelia, Rion Rubette and Goofy Gander will be patient at the back. The lack of genuine pace pressure means the race will develop into a sprint finish with the field tightly packed turning for home. This setup strongly favours prominent runners and those with tactical speed - the steady pace will allow handy horses to kick clear before the hold-up brigade can get into gear.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Horses Dominate
65% probability
If Josh's Joy sets uncontested fractions and the pace stays steady throughout
The lack of pressure allows prominent runners to travel comfortably and strike first when the sprint develops. Hold-up horses find themselves with too much ground to make up when the race quickens.
Glory To BeStaysound SusieReimaginedLikedbymike
B
Late Kick Prevails
20% probability
If the pace is even steadier than expected and the field stays tightly bunched
The sprint finish becomes a pure test of acceleration from the back, suiting horses with the best turn of foot. Nancy J and Oh Cecelia get the perfect setup for their closing kicks.
Nancy JOh CeceliaRion RubetteAurora Nova
C
Josh's Joy Wires Field
10% probability
If Josh's Joy gets completely uncontested lead and kicks clear approaching the furlong pole
The favourite maintains his advantage to the line as the field realizes too late that the pace was genuine. Gavin Ryan's 173-day break timing pays off perfectly.
Josh's JoyVarshiniGlory To BeStaysound Susie
D
Pace Collapses Completely
5% probability
If multiple prominent runners go too slow and create a crawling pace
The race becomes a complete lottery with any horse capable of winning from any position. Form and ratings become largely irrelevant in a bunch finish.
Tai Tam BayAsdanaBint Majestic RoiGoofy Gander
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Josh's Joy could steal this if getting uncontested lead - watch if any prominent runners pressure him early
WATCH
Glory To Be's consistent soft ground form makes her the main danger if getting first run on the field
WATCH
First-time hood on Reimagined could provide significant improvement after poor recent efforts
NOTE
Colin Keane choosing Likedbymike over other options suggests the stable fancy their chances despite the layoff
NOTE
Watch Staysound Susie's early position as the quick turnaround suggests connections are confident
2:32 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Fillies Maiden (Smullen Series)
1m2f · Soft · MDN · 11 runners
Totally Puzzled likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Aravalli led; the map had Totally Puzzled in front.
Chasing Paradise won at 3.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Totally Puzzled
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 7
Stellar MomentPremier PrincessMistress Of TyroneAravalliSofi's GiftMusic And SongArizona Star
Hold Up · 3
Chasing ParadiseChablis RockNathema
Totally Puzzled will lead from the start with her prominent style, setting a sustainable pace without early pressure in this 11-runner maiden. The bulk of the field comprises hold-up horses (Chasing Paradise, Music And Song, Nathema, Sofi's Gift, Chablis Rock, Arizona Star) who will settle behind the modest early gallop. With soft ground adding stamina emphasis over 1m2f, the pace will likely be steady rather than strong, allowing the field to stay compact entering the straight. This setup moderately favours hold-up horses with tactical speed — the steady pace keeps them in touch, while the soft ground and step up in trip should expose any lack of stamina in the early leaders.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-up horses dominate finish
45% probability
If the pace stays modest and the field remains compact turning for home
The soft ground emphasizes stamina over speed, allowing patient riders to time their challenges perfectly. Hold-up specialists with proven form like Chasing Paradise and Chablis Rock can exploit their tactical advantages in the closing stages.
Chasing ParadiseChablis RockNathemaMusic And Song
B
Lightly-raced improver strikes
30% probability
If one of the unexposed fillies shows significant improvement from their debut
The three OR-120 newcomers have untapped potential that debut runs rarely reveal fully. Mistress Of Tyrone with W J Lee or Premier Princess could step forward dramatically having learned from their initial experience.
Mistress Of TyronePremier PrincessStellar MomentChasing Paradise
C
Totally Puzzled wires field
15% probability
If the early pace stays very slow and Totally Puzzled gets an easy lead
Colin Keane can dictate terms from the front without pressure, reserving energy for a sustained kick. Her 177-day break may have freshened her up, and the step up to 1m2f could unlock improvement after her debut sixth.
If the early fractions are exceptionally slow creating a bunched finish
The race becomes a dash from the 2f pole with positioning crucial in a cavalry charge. Horses with any tactical speed regardless of running style can capitalize, making this a lottery finish where traffic and luck determine the outcome.
Celestial Orbit won at 34.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 3
FaiyumCalifornia DreamerMoments Of Joy
Prominent · 4
Bubble GumCelestial OrbitShe's A NationSpicy Margarita
Midfield · 1
Cameo
Hold Up · 2
Princess ChildCatalina Delcarpio
Faiyum, California Dreamer and Moments Of Joy will ensure a strong gallop from the start, with three confirmed front runners guaranteeing a genuine pace over this mile trip on testing ground. The prominent congestion behind them creates tactical complications, as She's A Nation, Bubble Gum, Celestial Orbit, Cameo and Spicy Margarita all want similar positions, setting up potential traffic problems turning for home. The combination of honest early pace and soft going will stretch the field out significantly in the final two furlongs. This setup strongly favours hold-up horses and those with proven stamina reserves — the genuine gallop will expose the front runners and allow closers to pick up the pieces.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-up horses dominate
55% probability
If the pace is genuinely strong and the soft ground takes its toll on the leaders.
The three front runners will burn each other out in the testing conditions, while the prominent runners get caught in traffic. Late-running types with stamina will have clear runs to mow down tired leaders in the final furlong.
If one of the prominent runners can secure the ideal spot just behind the pace without getting trapped.
They avoid the early speed battle but stay close enough to strike when the leaders weaken, benefiting from both the strong pace and avoiding late traffic. The soft ground aids their stamina-laden profiles.
Bubble GumCelestial OrbitShe's A NationSpicy Margarita
C
Front runner survives
12% probability
If one pace-setter gets an easy lead while the other two are pressured or make mistakes.
A lone leader can control the fractions and have enough left to hold off the closers, especially if the ground doesn't play as testing as expected. Class tells in the finish.
FaiyumMoments Of JoyCalifornia DreamerPrincess Child
D
Tactical chaos benefits outsider
8% probability
If the pace collapses early or severe traffic problems develop in the straight.
The well-fancied runners are compromised by positioning or pace issues, allowing a horse with the right trip to emerge from the pack. An unfancied runner gets the perfect run through.
CameoShe's A NationSpicy MargaritaCelestial Orbit
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch California Dreamer's early positioning as her poor soft going record combined with front-running style could see her fade dramatically if pressed hard early.
WATCH
Monitor the prominent runners She's A Nation, Bubble Gum, Celestial Orbit and Spicy Margarita for traffic problems as four horses wanting similar positions creates congestion risk.
NOTE
Observe Princess Child's early positioning as the first-time tongue-tie and hold-up style could see her get further back than ideal if the pace is truly strong.
WATCH
Watch Moments Of Joy for signs of inexperience in a pace battle as the three-year-old hasn't faced this level of early pressure before.
NOTE
Keep an eye on Faiyum's response to pace pressure as she's proven when getting her own way in front but may struggle if harassed early by California Dreamer.
3:42 — 1xBet.ie Proudly Supporting Irish Racing Mile Handicap
1m · Soft · HCAP · 21 runners
Dar Toungi likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Perry Mason led; the map had Dar Toungi in front.
Key Witness won at 17.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.
6 of 21 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Dar Toungi
Prominent · 7
Dos MukasanGenuine ArticleIron FistKibrisPerry MasonDiego El QuesoIndependent Expert
Midfield · 7
Calm The JetsPlayin CoolKey WitnessBlues EmperorLady LilacVain GloriaDaonethatgotaway
Hold Up · 6
Gleneagle BayEngines OnWestminster MoonQuatre BrasFinal VoyageHighbury See See
With only Dar Toungi showing clear front-running intent among 21 runners, this shapes as a moderate pace scenario where the lone leader won't face early pressure. The large field of predominantly prominent and hold-up horses means most will be held up early, creating a bunched field tracking Dar Toungi through steady fractions. The real race begins when the field fans out in the straight, with positioning crucial on the Curragh's wide home turn. This setup moderately favours prominent racers who can secure good positions behind the leader without being too far back in such a large field.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Racers Prevail
45% probability
If Dar Toungi sets steady fractions and the field remains bunched turning for home
The prominent horses get first run on the leader while hold-up horses are caught too far back in traffic. Iron Fist, Independent Expert, and Key Witness are perfectly positioned to strike.
Iron FistIndependent ExpertKey WitnessPerry Mason
B
Hold-up Horse Charges
30% probability
If the pace quickens from the 3f pole and the field strings out significantly
Late runners find clear runs as the prominent horses tire, with the strongest stayers coming through. Westminster Moon and Final Voyage benefit from their patient tactics.
Westminster MoonFinal VoyageGleneagle BayEngines On
C
Front Runner Dominates
15% probability
If Dar Toungi gets uncontested fractions and kicks clear approaching the final furlong
The lack of early pace pressure allows the leader to dictate completely, building an unassailable lead. None of the hold-up horses can reel him in from too far back.
Dar ToungiCalm The JetsKibrisDiego El Queso
D
Midfield Swooper Success
10% probability
If the race becomes a messy affair with interference in the straight affecting the prominent runners
A horse from midfield with a clean passage benefits from others' misfortunes while avoiding the early scrimmaging. Genuine Article or Playin Cool could capitalize.
Genuine ArticlePlayin CoolLady LilacVain Gloria
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Dar Toungi must handle 21-runner field alone upfront - if he goes too fast early or gets companionship, his chance diminishes significantly
WATCH
Track positioning crucial in large field turning for home - horses drawn wide or caught behind early pace may struggle for clear runs
NOTE
Independent Expert's quick 12-day turnaround after soft ground win suggests stable confidence in his current form
WATCH
Several horses returning from lengthy breaks including Westminster Moon (249d), Calm The Jets (448d) and Vain Gloria (697d) need market support
NOTE
Iron Fist's soft ground record stands out with 2 wins and 3 places from 7 soft starts, perfectly suited to conditions
4:17 — 1xBet.ie Emerald Cup Handicap (Premier Handicap)
1m2f · Soft · HCAP · 20 runners
Norwalk Havoc to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Norwalk Havoc led, as the map showed.
Fiver Friday won at 6.50 — raced midfield, as the map had it.
9 of 18 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Norwalk Havoc
Prominent · 5
EastwatchGlen To GlenImmutableDutch GoldChica Guerrera
Midfield · 8
Dark SummitTamam DesertBay ColonyAmplitudeMockingTitaniumNarlitaFiver Friday
Norwalk Havoc is the sole confirmed front-runner and will dictate proceedings from the start, with Eastwatch, Glen To Glen, Dutch Gold and Chica Guerrera likely to track in prominent positions. With only one natural leader in a 20-runner field, Norwalk Havoc can control the tempo without early pressure, setting a sustainable gallop that will allow the field to bunch up entering the final three furlongs. The large field of 16 hold-up horses will be forced to come from off the pace on soft ground that can blunt finishing kicks. This setup strongly favours prominent runners and those that can get into good early positions — the controlled pace means leaders won't stop and the soft going will make it difficult for horses coming from the rear.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Front Runner Dominates
45% probability
If Norwalk Havoc gets an uncontested lead and controls fractions perfectly
Shane Foley can dictate every call from the front, slowing the pace when needed and having plenty left for the finish on ground that suits. The 16 hold-up horses will struggle to make up ground from off such a controlled pace.
Norwalk HavocEastwatchGlen To GlenRibee
B
Prominent Battle
35% probability
If the prominent runners apply early pressure to Norwalk Havoc and create a stronger gallop
Eastwatch, Glen To Glen and Dutch Gold engage the leader earlier than ideal, setting up a tactical battle in the final quarter-mile where class and RPR ratings become decisive. This creates opportunities for the better hold-up horses with high RPRs.
EastwatchCoeur d'OrStarfordAkecheta
C
Hold-up Surge
15% probability
If the pace collapses completely in the middle stages and becomes stop-start
The soft ground won't be as much of a hindrance with such a slow tempo, allowing the classy hold-up horses like Coeur d'Or (RPR 108) and Akecheta to unleash devastating finishing kicks. The prominent runners get caught napping.
Coeur d'OrAkechetaComfort ZoneRibee
D
Pace Meltdown Scramble
5% probability
If Norwalk Havoc goes too fast early under pressure from multiple prominent runners
The entire field comes back to the leaders in the final two furlongs as they all tire on the testing ground. This creates a cavalry charge finish where any horse getting the right run can win.
StarfordAmplitudeMockingNarlita
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Norwalk Havoc could get too easy a lead with only scattered prominent runners to pressure the pace
WATCH
Coeur d'Or returning from 152-day break for Weld but class and RPR suggest major player if fit
NOTE
Multiple Joseph O'Brien runners including Comfort Zone, Glen To Glen, Starford and Cowardofthecounty but stable form is patchy
WATCH
Several horses using claiming jockeys including Immutable and Glen To Glen which could signal value or desperation
NOTE
First-time headgear on Dark Summit (pacifiers), Tamam Desert (hood) and Titanium (visor) suggests connections expect improvement
4:52 — Feel The Rush With 1xBet.ie Easter Irish EBF Maiden
1m1f · Soft · MDN · 9 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
5:27 — Your Game. Your Odds. Your 1xBet.ie Stayers Trophy Race
1m6f · Soft · DEFAULT · 7 runners
Dallas Star to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Dallas Star led, as the map showed.
Layfayette won at 11.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
6 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Dallas Star
Prominent · 3
EmitHappy PharoahA Piece Of Heaven
Midfield · 1
Genealogy
Hold Up · 2
LayfayetteFalcon Eight
Dallas Star will lead from the gates with no other confirmed front runners in this small field, allowing him to dictate terms at a sustainable gallop. The prominent runners Emit, Genealogy, Happy Pharoah and A Piece Of Heaven will settle behind in a compact group, while hold-up horses Layfayette and Falcon Eight drop to the rear. With soft ground extending the finish and only one leader setting honest fractions, the pace will be genuine but not overly strong early. This setup moderately favours hold-up horses and strong finishers — the sustained pace will stretch the field in the closing stages, suiting those with finishing kicks.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-up horses dominate
45% probability
If the pace proves genuinely testing and the field gets strung out in the heavy ground
The soft conditions and honest gallop will find out the stamina reserves, allowing the patient rides on Layfayette and Falcon Eight to pick off tiring leaders. Hold-up specialists will have the tactical advantage with plenty to aim at.
LayfayetteFalcon EightEmitA Piece Of Heaven
B
Prominent horses prevail
30% probability
If the pace is steady enough to allow the prominent group to travel comfortably into contention
Emit and Happy Pharoah can use their class advantage to dominate from good positions, with Ryan Moore's booking of Emit particularly significant. The O'Brien-trained runners have the quality to sustain their effort when the race develops.
EmitHappy PharoahA Piece Of HeavenGenealogy
C
Front runner stays strong
15% probability
If Dallas Star can maintain his gallop and the soft ground doesn't drain his stamina reserves
Having dictated terms throughout, Dallas Star proves hard to pass with recent good form suggesting he handles testing conditions well. His recent proximity to quality opposition gives him every chance if lasting home.
Dallas StarEmitHappy PharoahA Piece Of Heaven
D
Outsider springs surprise
10% probability
If the pace collapses into a sprint finish that doesn't suit the favourites' profiles
The small field and tactical nature could produce a muddling race where an unfancied runner like Genealogy can capitalize on a good position. Hogan's yard is in decent form and this trip suits better than recent shorter efforts.
GenealogyFalcon EightLayfayetteDallas Star
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Dallas Star must be monitored for signs of weakening in the final two furlongs as the sustained gallop takes its toll
WATCH
Emit's fitness levels after 181-day break, though O'Brien runners often perform fresh and Moore rarely takes poor rides
NOTE
Happy Pharoah's jumping off after 187 days absence, particularly whether Harnett can secure a good early position from the gates
NOTE
The pace development in the middle stages - if it becomes pedestrian it will suit the hold-up horses even more
WATCH
Ground conditions deteriorating further, which would particularly impact the stamina reserves of front runner Dallas Star
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.