Meriden won at 4.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 18 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Caitouna
Prominent · 6
Coincidental GloryDawn FlameAmerilisKilmac AirEnthusiasticallyBoston Max
Midfield · 8
Pocket JacksApothic RedPolancoWhats It All AboutGosford QueenDubai OpulenceSchoolyard DaysWindsor Lily
Hold Up · 6
Gonna Be GoldenWild BerriesWhistling JamesieMeridenAurora MistCisterna
Caitouna is the only confirmed front-runner in this 21-runner handicap and will likely dictate terms from the rail without pressure. The prominent runners Coincidental Glory, Amerilis, Kilmac Air, Boston Max, Enthusiastically and Dawn Flame will track behind but none are aggressive pace-pressers. This creates a sustainable gallop over 6½f that will suit horses who can finish strongly from off the pace. The lack of early speed pressure heavily favours hold-up horses and patient rides, as the pace will be manageable and allow closers to unleash their finishing kicks.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Sustainable Pace Suits Closers
60% probability
If Caitouna leads uncontested with moderate fractions through halfway
The pace becomes very manageable allowing hold-up horses to close strongly in the final 2f as the early leaders tire. Patient rides on improving handicappers with finishing speed dominate the finish.
MeridenAurora MistCisternaApothic Red
B
Prominent Trackers Control
25% probability
If the prominent pack of Coincidental Glory and Boston Max apply more pressure than expected
The pace quickens enough to compromise pure hold-up horses but still allows those tracking in 4th-8th to strike. Horses positioned just behind the leaders get first run on the tiring pace-setters.
If Caitouna gets completely uncontested fractions and finds extra stamina
The soft pace allows the leader to kick clear in the final furlong before closers can mount their challenges. Early positioning proves decisive over finishing speed.
CaitounaKilmac AirDawn FlameCoincidental Glory
D
Pace Collapses Completely
5% probability
If the gallop becomes crawling slow with multiple horses still in contention turning for home
The race becomes a pure sprint from 2f out heavily favouring the best raw speed regardless of position. Horses with proven 5f pace dominate over stamina types.
Boston MaxPocket JacksGonna Be GoldenWhistling Jamesie
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Caitouna's fractions through the first 3f will determine whether hold-up horses get their ideal setup or face too much ground to make up
WATCH
Boston Max's early positioning given his tendency to fade - if prominent early his recent 5f form may not translate to 6½f
NOTE
The gap between Caitouna and the first prominent trackers after 2f will indicate whether the pace pressure materializes
WATCH
Meriden and Aurora Mist from the Hogan/Slattery yards respectively need patient rides to maximize their closing kicks in this large field
NOTE
Any significant early pace pressure from Coincidental Glory or Enthusiastically would completely change the tactical complexion
5:10 — TRI Equestrian Maiden
6½f · Good To Soft · MDN · 18 runners
Kula Bula Boyo to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
The Piper's Call won at 3.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 18 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Kula Bula Boyo
Prominent · 1
The Piper's Call
Midfield · 11
Starborn LegendLady MoonForbiddenFinikaAsk Me AgainAestus AsteviasFrosted SkyPick A WindowLittle RoyHighwaymanNiobite
Hold Up · 5
Quinta GirlTide Of FortuneSancerre RockContrary To LawTrek Home
Kula Bula Boyo will take the field along at a sustainable gallop with no other confirmed front-runners in this 18-runner maiden. The Piper's Call may track from prominent while the majority including Trek Home, Tide Of Fortune, Sancerre Rock and Quinta Girl will sit in behind. With such a large field and gentle early pace, this sets up perfectly for hold-up horses to deliver late challenges down the outside. The lack of early pace pressure strongly favours closers who can unleash finishing kicks.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-up horses dominate
65% probability
If the pace stays moderate as expected with only Kula Bula Boyo leading
The field will bunch up turning for home allowing fresh closers to sweep past tired leaders. Trek Home, Tide Of Fortune and the newcomers with stamina pedigrees can time their runs perfectly.
Trek HomeStarborn LegendTide Of FortuneAsk Me Again
B
Prominent trackers prevail
20% probability
If The Piper's Call and other forward types press Kula Bula Boyo harder than anticipated
A stronger gallop will stretch the field and favour horses positioned handily rather than too far back. The Piper's Call can use his class advantage while Sancerre Rock benefits from forward placement.
The Piper's CallSancerre RockContrary To LawQuinta Girl
C
Newcomer shock
10% probability
If one of the well-bred debutants shows unexpected early speed to track the leader
The race becomes a straight battle between experience and raw ability in the final furlong. Starborn Legend or Ask Me Again could capitalise on their superior breeding telling late.
Starborn LegendAsk Me AgainForbiddenFinika
D
Front-runner stays
5% probability
If Kula Bula Boyo improves dramatically with cheekpieces and steals a march
The confirmed leader gets an uncontested lead and holds on as the field struggles to close the gap. His recent prominent running at Cork suggests the ability might be there with headgear help.
Kula Bula BoyoThe Piper's CallTrek HomeStarborn Legend
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
The Piper's Call could be vulnerable after 333-day absence despite his class advantage over this field
WATCH
Several well-bred newcomers from Feane stable running despite trainer's poor recent strike-rate suggesting market moves needed
NOTE
Kula Bula Boyo gets uncontested lead which could prove decisive if cheekpieces sharpen him up significantly
WATCH
Large field of 18 may cause traffic problems for hold-up horses despite the tactical advantage
NOTE
Joseph O'Brien saddles Starborn Legend as expensive purchase making debut for stable in excellent current form
5:40 — Sky Bet Club Irish EBF Maiden
7f · Good To Soft · MDN · 7 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
6:10 — Pension Structures Irish EBF Maiden
6f · Good To Soft · MDN · 14 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
6:45 — Sky Bet Price Boosts Premier Handicap
5f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 12 runners
Ipanema Queen likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Ipanema Queen and Sovereign Cry led, as the map showed.
Amiata won at 8.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Ipanema Queen
Prominent · 4
AllsortzTornado KissSovereign CrySparky Sparky
Midfield · 4
Cool AzulReal EncounterShadow RunFocaccia
Hold Up · 3
AmiataBad Boy RizzFox In Flight
Ipanema Queen is the only confirmed front-runner and should dictate terms from the gates, with prominent runners Cool Azul, Real Encounter, Allsortz and Tornado Kiss tracking behind but unlikely to apply serious early pressure. The pace should be steady rather than fierce over this minimum trip, allowing the leader to control fractions before the field quickens from the 2f pole. With just one natural pacesetter and several hold-up horses needing cover, this race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can sit handy and kick, rather than closers who may find insufficient pace to close into.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Front Running
45% probability
If Ipanema Queen gets soft sectionals and isn't pressed early
The favourite controls the tempo and has enough left to resist late challenges, while prominent trackers get first run but can't quite reel her in. This measured pace suits horses with tactical speed who can dictate.
Ipanema QueenAllsortzReal EncounterCool Azul
B
Prominent Tracker Strikes
30% probability
If the pace is steady but one of the handy runners gets perfect positioning
A prominent runner gets the ideal trip tracking the leader before quickening decisively in the final furlong, exploiting Ipanema Queen's 31-day break. The controlled early pace allows tactical types to finish strongest.
Real EncounterCool AzulAllsortzTornado Kiss
C
Hold-Up Horse Powers Home
15% probability
If the early pace becomes modest and creates a sprint finish
The lack of pressure up front sets up a genuine sprint where closers with the best turn of foot can unleash late runs. Amiata and Bad Boy Rizz benefit from the strongly-run finish this creates.
AmiataBad Boy RizzFox In FlightShadow Run
D
Pace Collapses Early
10% probability
If Ipanema Queen goes too slow and gets swamped by superior handicappers
The front-runner's lack of recent racing shows as she sets crawling fractions, allowing multiple horses to swoop late in a blanket finish. Class rather than position determines the outcome.
Bad Boy RizzAmiataReal EncounterAllsortz
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Ipanema Queen's jumping and early position - if she misses the break, the entire pace scenario changes
WATCH
Bad Boy Rizz and Amiata settling in rear - they need the pace to develop into a sprint to be competitive
NOTE
Cool Azul's positioning in the first furlong - his recent prominent runs suggest he wants to be handy early
WATCH
Real Encounter's finishing kick - his Dundalk 5f win suggests he has the tactical speed for this scenario
NOTE
Allsortz tracking the leader - his front-running style means he needs to avoid getting caught wide or in a speed duel
7:20 — Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Handicap
1m6f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 12 runners
Emit likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Poetic Sound won at 11.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
6 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Emit
Prominent · 4
Holy SeePerry MasonPoetic SoundToo Bossy For Us
Midfield · 3
Granite BayYuliaFactual Fact
Hold Up · 4
Dawn RisingTyson FuryTribal StarEn Or
Emit looks the natural front-runner with Ryan Moore aboard, likely to set a sustainable gallop from the outset with his prominent racing style. Perry Mason showed he can make the running when winning over 1m2f here last month, while Holy See, Yulia, Poetic Sound and Granite Bay will all race prominently behind the leaders. The large field of hold-up horses including Dawn Rising, Tyson Fury, Factual Fact, Tribal Star and En Or suggests the pace will be genuine but not frantic. This race shape strongly favors prominent racers who can position close to the pace without expending excessive energy, as they'll avoid the traffic problems that could compromise the hold-up brigade in a 12-runner field.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Positioning Pays
45% probability
If the pace is genuine but not extreme and the prominent horses avoid early pressure
Emit and Perry Mason can dictate terms from the front while Holy See, Yulia and Granite Bay travel smoothly in the slipstream. The hold-up horses will find too much traffic and ground to make up over this stamina-testing trip.
EmitHoly SeePerry MasonYulia
B
Hold-Up Horses Charge
25% probability
If the early pace becomes unsustainably fast with Emit and Perry Mason going too hard
The prominent runners will tie up in the final furlong, allowing the patient hold-up horses to sweep through. Dawn Rising and Tyson Fury have the class to capitalize if the race unfolds this way.
Dawn RisingTyson FuryFactual FactTribal Star
C
Midfield Mover Strikes
20% probability
If the race develops into a steadily-run affair with tactical positioning crucial
Horses that can improve from midfield without being too far back will have the perfect position to strike. Granite Bay and Poetic Sound can position ideally to pounce when the pace quickens.
Granite BayPoetic SoundHoly SeePerry Mason
D
Pace Collapses Early
10% probability
If Emit fails to go forward or gets headed early, creating a muddling gallop
The race becomes a sprint finish where class and finishing kick matter most. This would suit the higher-rated horses regardless of running style, particularly those with tactical speed.
EmitDawn RisingHoly SeePerry Mason
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Emit could set the race up perfectly for others if Ryan Moore allows him to go too fast early given his front-running style
WATCH
Dawn Rising and Tyson Fury both returning from long breaks which could blunt their finishing kicks in a competitive handicap
NOTE
Perry Mason's ability to repeat his front-running tactics from last month's win here will be crucial to his chances
WATCH
The large contingent of hold-up horses could create a cavalry charge if they all get clear runs in the straight
NOTE
Holy See and Granite Bay both returning from 55-day breaks need to show their fitness translates immediately
7:55 — Try Racing TV For Free Now At racingtv.com/freetrial Fillies Maiden
1m4f · Good To Soft · MDN · 9 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
8:25 — Sky Bet Build A Bet Handicap
6½f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 23 runners
Sommelier likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Sommelier won at 21.00. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 19 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Sommelier
Prominent · 6
Four BlondesCarrigans GroveShamankaDynamic ForceSalah BelleIrish Rumour
Midfield · 9
Angel Of PromisePrime SignRosatoGreen IconJazzitUkiyoDandy LandHot To FoxtrotGegenpressing
Hold Up · 7
Jon RiggensPoweracclaimKitty BearLady Mary HeathEichan SanRappellHugo's Girl
Sommelier is the only confirmed early leader and should get an uncontested lead with Four Blondes, Salah Belle, Carrigans Grove, Dynamic Force, Irish Rumour and Shamanka sitting prominent but none willing to challenge for the early pace. This creates a sustained tempo without early pressure, allowing the pace-setters to dictate through halfway before the large hold-up brigade including Jon Riggens, Hugo's Girl, Kitty Bear, Rosato and Eichan San starts their challenge in the final 2f. With 23 runners and minimal early pace pressure, this race strongly favours prominent runners who can track the pace and kick from 2f out, as the hold-up horses will face traffic problems and the leader may fade late.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Tracker Wins
55% probability
If the large field creates traffic problems for hold-up horses and Sommelier sets steady fractions
The prominent runners get first run at the leader and avoid the scrimmaging behind, with Four Blondes and Carrigans Grove perfectly positioned to strike. Hold-up horses get caught in traffic or arrive too late against the sustained pace.
Four BlondesCarrigans GroveIrish RumourDynamic Force
B
Hold-Up Horse Overcomes
25% probability
If the pace becomes genuinely strong and Sommelier's known stamina limitations kick in
The patient tactics pay off as the early speed collapses, allowing Hugo's Girl and Kitty Bear to weave through and finish strongest. Jon Riggens uses his course experience to find a gap late.
Hugo's GirlKitty BearJon RiggensRosato
C
Sommelier Stays On
12% probability
If no horse challenges Sommelier early and he gets easy fractions throughout
The uncontested leader builds a decisive advantage and his new headgear combination helps him see out the trip better than recent form suggests. The hold-up horses leave their runs too late to catch him.
SommelierFour BlondesCarrigans GroveIrish Rumour
D
Outsider Emerges
8% probability
If the favorites get caught up in traffic or fail to handle the going conditions
Ukiyo continues his recent good form with tactical pace positioning, or Gegenpressing transfers his Sligo form to the Curragh. The race becomes messy and suits an improving outsider.
UkiyoGegenpressingEichan SanHot To Foxtrot
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Sommelier may get uncontested lead and prove hard to peg back if new headgear helps stamina
WATCH
Traffic problems likely in home straight with 23 runners creating chaos for hold-up horses
NOTE
Four Blondes and Carrigans Grove both drawn to track the pace without early interference
WATCH
Jon Riggens needs significant luck in running to utilize his strong course record effectively
NOTE
Kitty Bear's winning streak and rider combination makes her dangerous if getting clear run late
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.