1:15 — Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (IRE Incentive Race)
6f · Good · MDN · 13 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
1:50 — AES Recycling First Flier Stakes (Listed Race)
5f · Good · LST · 7 runners
Blixen Force to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
New Yorker and Rebel Dance led; the map had Blixen Force in front.
Velozee won at 5.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Blixen Force
Prominent · 3
What A Girl WantsNew YorkerMaria Quiteria
Midfield · 1
Rebel Dance
Hold Up · 2
Star ProspectVelozee
Blixen Force will lead uncontested from the gates with no other confirmed front runners in this field. New Yorker, Maria Quiteria, and What A Girl Wants will settle prominently behind the leader, creating a moderate early gallop over this minimum trip. Star Prospect and Velozee will drop out the back as hold-up horses, relying on late kicks. This sustainable early pace followed by tactical positioning battles favours prominent racers who can track the leader and strike decisively in the final furlong.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Strike Home
45% probability
If the pace stays moderate and Blixen Force maintains a steady gallop
The prominent runners get the perfect tow into contention before unleashing their finishing kicks. New Yorker and Maria Quiteria benefit most from this tactical positioning.
New YorkerMaria QuiteriaWhat A Girl WantsStar Prospect
B
Hold-Up Horses Fly
30% probability
If the prominent group goes too early or gets caught in traffic
Star Prospect and Velozee get clear runs from the back to exploit their superior finishing speed. The pace collapses late enough for their devastating kicks to be decisive.
Star ProspectVelozeeNew YorkerMaria Quiteria
C
Front Runner Escapes
15% probability
If Blixen Force gets an easy lead and finds extra improvement
The leader builds an unassailable advantage while the field hesitates behind. Blixen Force holds on grimly as the closers charge too late over this sharp five furlongs.
Blixen ForceNew YorkerWhat A Girl WantsStar Prospect
D
Pace Collapse Chaos
10% probability
If the early pace becomes crawling slow with tactical maneuvering
The race becomes a messy sprint from the two-furlong pole with traffic problems. Any horse finding clear room can capitalize on the bunched field and chaotic finish.
What A Girl WantsVelozeeStar ProspectMaria Quiteria
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Star Prospect could be underestimated after impressive debut win with strong finishing kick from the back
WATCH
Rebel Dance's unraced status makes early market moves significant given the high official rating
NOTE
Blixen Force's early position will dictate the entire race rhythm over this minimum distance
WATCH
Traffic problems likely in the straight with several prominent runners bunching behind the leader
NOTE
Ryan Moore's booking for New Yorker suggests stable confidence after impressive debut success
Lead contested: Greek Mythology v Iron LilyHISTORIC
How it ran
Geryon led; the map had Greek Mythology and Iron Lily in front.
Causeway won at 3.25 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Greek MythologyIron Lily
Prominent · 3
NeolithicCausewayTake Charge Star
Midfield · 1
Redemption Road
Hold Up · 2
GeryonAndab
Greek Mythology and Iron Lily will ensure a genuine pace from the outset, with both confirmed front runners likely to dispute the early lead. Causeway, Take Charge Star and Neolithic will sit prominently behind the leaders, while the hold-up horses Andab, Geryon and Redemption Road will need the pace to develop. With two willing pace-setters and several prominent racers, this should create an honest gallop that will test stamina reserves. This race shape clearly favours the prominent racers and closers who can sit off the early pace and benefit from the strong gallop.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Strong Early Pace
45% probability
If Greek Mythology and Iron Lily engage in a sustained battle from the start
The honest gallop will set up perfectly for the hold-up horses and prominent racers with tactical speed. Andab and Geryon can use their closing kicks while Neolithic can improve from his handy position.
AndabGeryonNeolithicCauseway
B
Tactical Front Running
30% probability
If one pace-setter gets an easy lead while the other settles
The winner will come from those who can sit close enough to strike but avoid the early fractions. Causeway and Neolithic are ideally positioned to capitalize on this scenario from their prominent styles.
CausewayNeolithicTake Charge StarGreek Mythology
C
Slow Burn Finish
15% probability
If both leaders settle into a more conservative rhythm early
The lack of early pace will favour those with natural speed who can quicken decisively. Greek Mythology's finishing kick and Iron Lily's sustained front running could prove decisive in a sprint finish.
Greek MythologyIron LilyCausewayTake Charge Star
D
Messy Pace Collapse
10% probability
If the early leaders go too fast and both fade dramatically
The race will become a pure test of who has the most left in the tank from the back. Redemption Road's hold-up style and Andab's proven finishing ability would benefit most from complete pace collapse.
Redemption RoadAndabGeryonTake Charge Star
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Greek Mythology and Iron Lily's early battle - if they go too fast both could fade and set up the closers
WATCH
Andab's fitness after 31 days off - any signs of rustiness early could compromise his finishing kick
NOTE
Causeway's position turning in - Ryan Moore will need him handy enough to use his tactical speed
WATCH
Geryon's ability to get a clear run - hold-up horses can struggle in small fields if pace collapses
3:00 — Keadeen Hotel Supporting Newbridge Community Day Irish EBF Fillies Handicap
7f · Good · HCAP · 12 runners
3 vying for the leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Anushka and Lamberella led; the map had Institute and Slaney View and Saint Agatha in front.
Spinning Around won at 9.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 3
InstituteSlaney ViewSaint Agatha
Prominent · 3
Green CarreraSanctijudeSpinning Around
Midfield · 2
LamberellaStella Amorosa
Hold Up · 4
JusticiarPrevalenceAnushkaStar Of Beauty
Institute, Saint Agatha, and Slaney View will ensure a genuine gallop from the start, with Institute and Saint Agatha particularly keen early types who rarely settle. Green Carrera, Sanctijude, and Spinning Around will track close behind this fierce pace, creating a strung-out field by halfway. The strong early tempo will test stamina reserves over this 7f trip, potentially causing the leaders to crack in the final furlong. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can finish late, as the sustained pace will set up perfectly for closers with tactical speed.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Pace Collapses Late
60% probability
If the three front runners go too fast early and crack in the final 2f
The strong gallop will find out the leaders' stamina limitations, allowing patient hold-up horses to sweep past tired pace-setters. Late-running types with class will have ideal conditions to unleash their finishing kick.
PrevalenceAnushkaJusticiarStar Of Beauty
B
Front Runner Survives
20% probability
If Institute or Saint Agatha can control the tempo without going suicidal early
One of the pace-setters manages their effort better than rivals and holds on grimly despite late pressure. The winner still comes from the front but only after a tactical battle among the leaders.
InstituteSaint AgathaGreen CarreraSpinning Around
C
Prominent Tracker Wins
12% probability
If Green Carrera or Sanctijude get the perfect stalking position behind the pace
The eventual winner sits in the ideal spot just behind the speed, avoiding the early burn while staying close enough to strike. They get first run on the tiring leaders while holding off the late closers.
Green CarreraSanctijudeSpinning AroundAnushka
D
Muddling Pace Suits
8% probability
If the three leaders surprisingly settle and create a moderate tempo throughout
Without the expected strong gallop, the race becomes more tactical and speed-favoured runners get a better chance. The lack of pace setup doesn't suit the natural hold-up horses as much.
Spinning AroundSanctijudeInstituteSaint Agatha
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Institute and Saint Agatha will likely set a fierce pace that could set up the race perfectly for hold-up horses if they go too fast
WATCH
Green Carrera returns from a long break with headgear changes which could indicate either improvement or problems
NOTE
Prevalence has been off for nearly six months but the booking of Nicola Burns with her 5lb claim suggests confidence
WATCH
Lamberella's tendency to fade in the finish makes her vulnerable even if getting into a winning position
NOTE
The three O'Brien horses (Institute, Green Carrera, Spinning Around) represent different tactical approaches from the powerful stable
Kensington Lane won at 15.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 4
SinmaraKensington LaneWhite Sand BeachSky Watch
Prominent · 5
Black Caviar GoldCaught U SleepingPollencaDrop Dead GorgeousWild Bessie
Midfield · 0
None
Hold Up · 3
Killashee WarriorMayflowerAlphecca
Four confirmed front runners (Sinmara, White Sand Beach, Sky Watch, Kensington Lane) will create a strong gallop from the gate, with Sinmara likely to take them along given her recent form edge. The prominent congestion with Drop Dead Gorgeous, Pollenca, Wild Bessie, Caught U Sleeping and Black Caviar Gold all wanting that position will create traffic problems turning for home. This honest pace over 1m on Good ground will expose stamina limitations and create opportunities for those with tactical speed. The race shape heavily favours hold-up horses who can find clear water late, as the early pace will be genuine and the prominent runners will face congestion issues.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
55% probability
If the four leaders go too fast early and the prominent brigade gets shuffled back in traffic
The strong gallop will set up perfectly for closers who can pick their way through beaten horses in the final two furlongs. Mayflower and Killashee Warrior can exploit their patient tactics while Alphecca benefits from recent race fitness.
If the pace is strong but manageable and one prominent runner finds clear daylight 2f out
The race becomes a tactical affair where positioning matters more than pure stamina, allowing a well-positioned runner to kick clear. Drop Dead Gorgeous has Ryan Moore's guidance while Black Caviar Gold brings the highest rating despite poor recent form.
Drop Dead GorgeousBlack Caviar GoldWild BessieCaught U Sleeping
C
Pace Collapses Late
12% probability
If the four leaders go steady early and it becomes a sprint finish
The lack of early pace allows all runners to stay in contention turning for home, favouring those with tactical speed. Sinmara's recent winning form gives her the edge in a bunch finish while Pollenca can capitalize on her 7f winning form.
SinmaraPollencaWild BessieAlphecca
D
Shock Front Runner
8% probability
If one of the supposed leaders gets an uncontested lead and steals a march
White Sand Beach or Kensington Lane gets first run while the field is still sorting itself out behind. The winner comes from an unexpected front runner who times their move perfectly before the closers can respond.
White Sand BeachKensington LaneSky WatchSinmara
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch for traffic problems in the home straight as five horses want the prominent position with limited racing room
WATCH
Monitor if Sinmara can handle pace pressure from three other confirmed front runners without emptying too early
NOTE
Keep an eye on Black Caviar Gold's early position given her high rating but concerning recent form decline
WATCH
Watch for Ryan Moore's positioning on Drop Dead Gorgeous given her long absence and need for clear running
NOTE
Observe if the pace is genuine early as four front runners could neutralize each other's advantage
Minnie Hauk won at 1.67 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Edward Hamilton
Prominent · 3
Minnie HaukAdelaide RiverBeset
Midfield · 1
Tiberius Thunder
Hold Up · 2
CerceneShaool
Edward Hamilton will lead from the gates with no other confirmed front runners to pressure him, allowing sustainable sectionals through the early stages. The prominent brigade of Minnie Hauk, Adelaide River, Tiberius Thunder and Beset will track within striking distance, while hold-up horses Cercene and Shaool settle towards the rear. Edward Hamilton's tendency to fade in the finish means the pace will likely collapse in the final two furlongs, setting up a tactical sprint. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers who can position handy and quicken, rather than pure front runners or horses needing significant pace to aim at.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Brigade Dominates
60% probability
If Edward Hamilton sets uncontested fractions and fades as expected in the final furlong
The pace collapse will suit horses positioned in the box seat, with Minnie Hauk and Beset perfectly placed to strike when the leader wilts. Their prominent style and class advantage over the hold-up horses becomes decisive in a tactical finish.
Minnie HaukBesetAdelaide RiverTiberius Thunder
B
Hold-Up Horse Strikes
25% probability
If the pace is even more sedate than expected and Edward Hamilton stays on better than usual
Cercene and Shaool will benefit from a truly-run race where their closing kick can be effective over this staying trip. The extra distance of 1m2f plays into their hands if they can pick up the pieces late.
CerceneShaoolMinnie HaukBeset
C
Front Runner Holds On
10% probability
If Edward Hamilton improves markedly on recent fade-in-finish form and finds reserves
Despite his poor recent record when leading, the uncontested lead and good going could see him last home if others are caught flat-footed. His Aidan O'Brien stable form gives him an outside chance.
Edward HamiltonAdelaide RiverMinnie HaukTiberius Thunder
D
Pace Duel Emerges
5% probability
If one of the prominent horses decides to challenge Edward Hamilton early and creates genuine pace
A genuine gallop would completely change the complexion, allowing the hold-up horses to close strongly up the rail. Shaool's recent wins when getting pace to aim at would make him dangerous.
ShaoolCerceneMinnie HaukBeset
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Edward Hamilton's early pace will dictate the entire race - if he goes slower than expected it becomes a pure sprint finish
WATCH
Watch Minnie Hauk's positioning in the first furlong as Ryan Moore may look to sit closer than usual given the lack of pace
WATCH
Cercene and Shaool need to be covered if they're moving strongly at the two-furlong pole in a slowly-run race
NOTE
Adelaide River's fitness after 198 days off will be tested if this becomes a genuine staying test
NOTE
Any prominent horse that tracks wider than Edward Hamilton around the bend will have first strike in the straight
4:45 — PG Duffy & Sons Citroen Apprentice Handicap
7f · Good · HCAP · 16 runners
Free Solo likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Free Solo and La Tulipe Noire led, as the map showed.
Summer Island won at 4.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently.
7 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Free Solo
Prominent · 4
Carrigans GrovePinar Del RioSummer IslandComfort Line
Free Solo stands as the lone confirmed front-runner in this 16-runner field, likely to dictate terms from the rail without serious pressure through the early stages. The prominent runners Pinar Del Rio, Carrigans Grove, Comfort Line and Summer Island will settle just behind, but none are aggressive gate-speed types to challenge Free Solo's lead. This creates a moderate pace scenario where Free Solo can control fractions, with the large field of hold-up horses including Loingseoir, Go Out, Moyassr and Methgal tracking from midfield and rear. The tactical verdict clearly favours prominent runners and those that can position handily, as they'll have first run on a likely bunched field of hold-up horses when the pace lifts.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Fractions Favour Prominent
55% probability
If Free Solo gets uncontested lead and prominent runners position well
Free Solo dictates comfortable sectionals allowing Comfort Line, Carrigans Grove and Summer Island to get first run on the field. The hold-up brigade faces a wall of horses when the pace quickens with two furlongs to run.
Comfort LineCarrigans GroveSummer IslandFree Solo
B
Hold-Up Horses Get Through
25% probability
If the pace genuinely collapses or gaps appear late
Loingseoir, Go Out and Moyassr find racing room as the field spreads in the straight. The class and finishing kick of the hold-up horses overcomes their tactical disadvantage.
LoingseoirGo OutMoyassrMethgal
C
Free Solo Wire-To-Wire
12% probability
If the pace stays very moderate and no horse can quicken past
Free Solo's sustainable galloping style proves too much when he's allowed easy lead. Prominent runners lack the pace to get past while hold-up horses are too far back.
Free SoloPinar Del RioComfort LineCarrigans Grove
D
Messy Pace Benefits Outsiders
8% probability
If early interference or uneven pace creates chaos in running
The race becomes a lottery with Oxford Circus, Roman Harry or Notforalongtime benefiting from clear runs. Form horses get caught in trouble as 16 runners bunch turning for home.
Jon RiggensRappellBlue AnthemIff In DoubtThe Love MachineOppenheimer
Genesis is the only confirmed front-runner in a field where eight horses want prominent positions, creating a congested battle for early real estate. Four Blondes, Imperial Dream, Reposado, Send Harry, This Guy, Tai Tam Bay, I'm Spartacus and Platino Bianco will all be scrapping for spots behind Genesis, likely resulting in a messy, stop-start pace through the first half. The traffic jam 2-3 furlongs out will be severe as these prominent runners fan out seeking room. This chaotic pace scenario strongly favours the hold-up horses who can avoid the early carnage and benefit from a strong gallop once the field spreads out.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Traffic Jam Chaos
65% probability
If the eight prominent runners create the predicted congestion and interference 2-3f out
The pace becomes genuinely run as they jostle for position, setting up perfectly for closers who stayed out of trouble. Hold-up specialists with good acceleration get dream conditions.
Jon RiggensBlue AnthemMasked AngelRappell
B
Genesis Dominates Early
20% probability
If Genesis gets an uncontested lead and the prominent group settles behind
The pace becomes too steady early, allowing Genesis to kick clear or the best prominent runner to challenge smoothly. Those with tactical speed benefit most.
GenesisSend HarryFour BlondesThis Guy
C
Prominent Group Cooperates
12% probability
If the eight prominent runners manage to settle without major interference
A more conventional race unfolds with sustained pace throughout, suiting horses with stamina and tactical nous over pure finishing kick.
Imperial DreamFour BlondesReposadoTai Tam Bay
D
Complete Pace Collapse
3% probability
If Genesis goes too slow and the prominent group also drops the bit completely
The race becomes a sprint from 3f out, favouring horses with natural pace regardless of preferred style.
This GuyAmerilisI'm SpartacusPlatino Bianco
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Eight prominent runners (Four Blondes, Imperial Dream, Reposado, Send Harry, This Guy, Tai Tam Bay, I'm Spartacus, Platino Bianco) creating traffic chaos 2-3f out
WATCH
Genesis getting too easy a lead early if the prominent group doesn't press forward quickly enough
NOTE
Jon Riggens and Blue Anthem positioning themselves off the pace to avoid the early congestion
WATCH
First-time headgear changes on Tai Tam Bay (visor), Amerilis (tongue-tie) and Iff In Doubt (tongue-tie) affecting their settling
NOTE
Multiple horses returning from significant layoffs (Genesis 232d, Four Blondes 203d, Imperial Dream 171d, Send Harry 173d) potentially needing the run
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.