Rosie Frith is the lone confirmed front-runner in a 14-runner field over the Curragh's straight 5f on Good to Firm ground, and with Colin Keane aboard she is likely to stride clear from the gates and set a measured, uncontested tempo rather than a suicidal gallop. The prominent positions will be heavily congested from the outset, with Ipanema Queen, Arugam Bay, Chicago Call, Genesis, Prairie Girl, and Cuban Grey all wanting to race close to the pace — that six-horse scrum creates serious traffic and interference risks between the 2f and 3f markers. Focaccia is a natural prominent type forced into a midfield map position because the prominent berths are already oversubscribed, while Headmaster and Finika are genuine hold-up horses redistributed into midfield on the map, meaning the rear of the field will be less stacked with finishers than it appears. The field holds more prominent-hunting types than can all secure their preferred position, and Rosie Frith is the one horse almost certain to get hers; with a sustainable, uncontested lead on fast ground over a sharp 5f, this race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can sidestep the prominent-group traffic and pick off a front-runner who has controlled her own fractions.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Rosie Frith Dictates Cleanly
54% probability
If Rosie Frith breaks well and settles into an uncontested lead, controlling every fraction without pressure from the prominent group.
Colin Keane steers Rosie Frith to an unchallenged lead and, on quick ground that rewards horses who avoid the midfield scrimmage, she conserves enough energy to hold on through the final furlong. The prominent runners burn energy jostling for position and arrive too late, making a front-runner who controls her own race the primary beneficiary.
Rosie FrithIpanema QueenGenesisSarahmae
B
Hold-Up Fliers Sweep Through
26% probability
If the prominent-group scramble creates a moderately strong pace and the closers find a clean passage down the stands rail or centre.
The Highway Rat, Gazelle d'Or, Erosandpsyche, and Sarahmae sit last or second-last but benefit from the pace injection caused by six horses competing for prominent spots, getting a true run into open ground in the final 2f on fast going. This is the scenario where the deepest-sitting hold-up horses are rewarded, provided their jockeys find clear daylight early enough to launch.
SarahmaeGazelle d'OrThe Highway RatErosandpsyche
C
Prominent Runner Pounces
13% probability
If one prominent horse breaks cleanly ahead of the pack and tracks Rosie Frith at a comfortable distance without getting boxed in.
A single prominent runner who avoids the early traffic — most likely Ipanema Queen or Genesis given their recent Good-ground form — settles just off the leader's shoulder and has enough left to collar Rosie Frith in the final 100 yards. This shape suits horses whose natural prominent style is genuinely their own rather than a map redistribution, and who have the fitness to sustain it on fast ground.
Ipanema QueenGenesisChicago CallArugam Bay
D
Redistribution Chaos Scrambles Result
7% probability
If the prominent-group congestion causes significant interference or checks and several runners are shuffled back, flattening pace and randomising the finish.
With multiple horses forced out of their natural positions, the race loses its anticipated shape entirely and a horse like Finika or Focaccia — natural pace types racing off a low OR — benefits from the disorder by finding an unexpected gap. This low-probability scenario is discounted because it relies on redistributed runners performing outside their mapped role, but a chaotic 5f sprint can occasionally produce exactly this result.
FinikaFocacciaCuban GreyPrairie Girl
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Prominent congestion — Ipanema Queen, Arugam Bay, Chicago Call, Genesis, Prairie Girl, and Cuban Grey all want the same early positions behind Rosie Frith, making a check or interference incident between the 3f and 2f poles a genuine danger for anything caught in the scramble.
KEY
Rosie Frith's early break — if Colin Keane gets her away cleanly and she crosses to the rail uncontested, the entire race shape locks in around her; watch the first 2f to see whether any prominent runner pushes into her space, as that would immediately change the pace dynamic.
WATCH
Prairie Girl's turf debut concern — 170 days off, all recent form on Standard surface, now racing on Good-to-Firm turf; if she breaks sharply and adds to the prominent congestion she could compound the traffic problem, but if she is unable to handle the going she may drift back at a critical moment.
WATCH
Focaccia's quick turnaround — ran only 6 days ago and is a natural prominent type forced into midfield; watch whether Andrew Slattery attempts to push forward early to reclaim her preferred position, which would intensify the prominent-group logjam.
NOTE
Sarahmae hold-up run — she carries the joint-top weight for hold-up horses (136lbs with a 10lb claim reducing the impact) and her two recent wins suggest she is in career form; the key watch point is whether Jared Huggan secures a clean passage down the stands side in the final 2f when the prominent group spreads across the track.
Bucanero Fuerte led; the map had Big Mojo in front.
Big Mojo won at 2.25 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
0 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Big Mojo
Prominent · 1
Big Gossey
Midfield · 2
Bucanero FuerteBodhi Bear
Hold Up · 1
James's Delight
Big Mojo is the lone confirmed front-runner and, with only five runners over 6f on Good to Firm ground at the Curragh, Tom Marquand can expect to dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop without serious challenge for the lead. The field is unusually pace-loaded for its size — Bucanero Fuerte, Bodhi Bear, and James's Delight are all natural prominent types who cannot all occupy their preferred ground, meaning at least two will be shuffled wider or further back than ideal, creating a compressed midpack behind a single pace-setter. Big Gossey, a reliable prominent-to-handy performer, is the one runner most likely to track Big Mojo cleanly without sacrificing position. The race shape strongly favours the horse who can sit closest to a measured, uncontested pace and produce a clean turn-of-foot, making prominent-to-handy runners who secure a position directly behind the leader the primary beneficiaries; true hold-up tactics are structurally disadvantaged here because there is no genuine tempo injection to close into.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Big Mojo Controls Throughout
67% probability
If Big Mojo leads unchallenged and sets a fair but not suicidal clip, allowing Marquand to dictate every fraction.
Big Mojo establishes an uncontested lead and, with no rival willing to burn early energy to close him down, converts a prominent style into a wire-to-wire success on Good to Firm ground where his form figures read best. Horses racing behind a single, unhurried pace-setter on fast ground rarely have enough cover to mount a late assault, and Big Mojo's recent course form and high sim-going strike rate support the view that this surface suits.
Big MojoBig GosseyBodhi BearBucanero Fuerte
B
Closest Chaser Pounces Late
17% probability
If Big Mojo's pace proves just comfortable enough for a well-placed tracker to reel him in across the final furlong.
Big Gossey, travelling prominently and freshened by a 21-day break with a strong recent record on this going, is ideally placed to challenge if Big Mojo's stride shortens late. A nine-year-old who has won over this course and distance on similar ground, Big Gossey's ability to maintain rhythm from a handy position makes him the most natural beneficiary should the leader flatten out.
Big GosseyBodhi BearBig MojoJames's Delight
C
Reshuffled Prominent Lands Blow
11% probability
If one of the redistributed prominent types — Bucanero Fuerte or Bodhi Bear — overcomes their compromised position to storm through.
Racing outside their natural slot carries a meaningful cost in a five-runner sprint where every length of ground lost early is hard to recover, but Bodhi Bear's course-and-distance win and Colin Keane's ability to find a run from an awkward position give this scenario some credibility. Bucanero Fuerte's recent form string of 7-7546 is less persuasive, though a clean break and an uncontested early move could restore his position.
If James's Delight, mapped to a hold-up role out of necessity, produces an exceptional turn of foot from well off the pace.
A 78-day absence and a natural prominent style redistributed to the back of a small field make this a low-probability outcome, though McMonagle's excellent big-race record means the execution risk is limited. James's Delight would need a slow early pace combined with rivals tying each other up — conditions that are structurally unlikely given Big Mojo's uncontested lead.
Big Mojo's early sections bear watching — if Marquand exploits the unchallenged lead to slow the race to a crawl, the compressed pack behind could close rapidly in the final furlong, turning an apparent control scenario into a sprint finish for the chasers.
WATCH
Big Gossey's draw and early movement deserve attention at the start — if he can tuck directly onto Big Mojo's quarters without burning energy, he becomes dangerous; any wide, flat position tracking from outside would erode his late challenge.
WATCH
Bodhi Bear's first 100 yards will reveal whether Colin Keane attempts to push forward and reclaim a prominent position — if he does, it increases the chance of a contested early lead and raises Big Mojo's effort level considerably.
NOTE
James's Delight's return from 78 days is the significant unknown; Cox horses can be fit fresh, but the redistribution to a hold-up role in a race without genuine pace compression is structurally unkind and any sign of ring-rustiness will end his chance immediately.
NOTE
Going described as Good to Firm throughout the card — any additional drying by the 3:25 slot could sharpen sectionals further and increase the advantage of the horse most comfortable bowling along on fast ground, which points back to Big Mojo's sim-going record of 13/15.
4:00 — Keeneland Phoenix Stakes (Group 1)
6f · Good · G1 · 8 runners
4 vying for the leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Carry The Flag led; the map had Celeron and Tribeca and Sun Goddess and Folsom Blues in front.
Sun Goddess won at 2.25 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 4
CeleronTribecaSun GoddessFolsom Blues
Prominent · 3
King Of CloughanThe ScallionatorCarry The Flag
Midfield · 0
None
Hold Up · 1
Velozee
Celeron, Tribeca, Folsom Blues, and Sun Goddess all carry strong front-running credentials, guaranteeing a contested, high-tempo gallop from the outset over 6f on Good to Firm ground at the Curragh — a combination that will stretch this juvenile field from the first furlong. With four legitimate lead horses unable to all secure their preferred position, the early scrimmage will almost certainly produce a genuinely searching pace rather than a controlled, tactical crawl, placing a serious premium on resolution and class in the closing stages. The field holds more front-running and prominent types than can all get their positions cleanly, and Celeron (highest OR, proven 6f winner) and Sun Goddess (Ryan Moore, Aidan O'Brien) are best placed to actually secure rail-side berths, while Folsom Blues and Tribeca are most likely to be shuffled off their ideal spot. This race shape strongly favours a prominent or pace-pressing runner with tactical speed and stamina to sustain a challenge through a hot pace rather than a pure hold-up finisher, meaning runners like Carry The Flag and King Of Cloughan, who can sit handy without burning energy at the front, are ideally positioned to pounce.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Contested Pace, Presser Wins
47% probability
If the four lead horses fight for position early and the pace is truly end-to-end, leaving a prominent pressing horse to pick up the pieces.
The blistering early fractions will drain the true front-runners late, and a horse that sits just off the lead under a cool hand will sprint past spent rivals in the final furlong on this flat, fast Curragh surface.
Carry The FlagKing Of CloughanSun GoddessCeleron
B
Celeron Controls and Kicks
24% probability
If Celeron secures a comfortable lead without serious pressure and is allowed to dictate a measured tempo.
Murphy's Group 1 experience gives Celeron the edge in an early contest for the front, and if he finds a rhythm unchallenged he can produce the turn of foot that powered his two wins at this course and distance.
CeleronSun GoddessTribecaFolsom Blues
C
Closers Exploit Carnage
18% probability
If the pace is so fierce that the entire lead group ties up, allowing a horse to rattle home from off the pace.
Velozee, while repositioned on the pace map, does retain raw finishing speed, and The Scallionator has previously shown ability to close from a stalking position when the tempo is brutal.
VelozeeThe ScallionatorCarry The FlagKing Of Cloughan
D
Sun Goddess Leads, Stays On
11% probability
If Ryan Moore sends Sun Goddess to the front early and the opposition fails to match her finishing effort after a tactical race.
Sun Goddess's consistent Good-to-Firm form (2W from 4 runs), Group-level class, and a confident booking from Moore make her a threat if she can secure a smooth lead and control the fractions.
Sun GoddessFolsom BluesCeleronCarry The Flag
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Celeron and Sun Goddess are both confirmed front-runners drawn in a field of four pace-setters — watch the first furlong for any collision or crowding that disrupts the race's early order and potentially changes the complexion entirely.
WATCH
Velozee is mapped to hold up but her natural style is prominent; if she contests for the lead instead of settling, the field's already intense pace rises further, compounding the risk to every front-runner's stamina in the final 2f.
WATCH
Folsom Blues has only one run over 6f in form and that was a placing rather than a win; his finishing speed relative to this Group 1 field is unproven, and Dylan Browne McMonagle may find him outpaced in the final furlong if the gallop is truly hot.
NOTE
The Good to Firm ground (confirmed in the going report for the 4:00 race) rewards horses with clean, efficient action; any runner who showed preference for softer surfaces in their history — notably Folsom Blues (7f win on Soft) — may not reproduce their best here.
NOTE
The Curragh's flat, straight 6f is unforgiving for horses that lose early position — King Of Cloughan's ability to travel prominently without leading makes him a horse to track through the early stages if the lead group goes off too hard.
4:35 — Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Handicap
6f · Good · HCAP · 15 runners
Nazario likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Hugo's Girl led; the map had Nazario in front.
Mint Man won at 6.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.
5 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Nazario
Prominent · 2
Caislean Ni CuanRosato
Midfield · 8
Jon RiggensAll HailHugo's GirlNouvel EspoirYutoriMint ManBeat The DevilAurora Nova
Hold Up · 4
Go AthleticoSovereign CryGerrit's GemLohoobb
Nazario is the one confirmed front-runner in this 15-runner sprint and, with no serious rival prepared to press hard from the gates, he should be able to control tempo from a prominent position at whatever level of pace suits his rider Rory Mulligan. The going report confirms Good To Firm conditions throughout the card — fast ground that rewards horses who travel strongly mid-race and finish off, rather than those who need soft ground to grind. The field is saturated with hold-up types: Jon Riggens, Hugo's Girl, All Hail, Nouvel Espoir, Mint Man, Yutori, Aurora Nova and Beat The Devil are all genuine closers who cannot all take up their preferred rear positions — several will be shuffled forward into unfamiliar midfield slots, reducing the effectiveness of the late burst the race shape would otherwise generate. With Nazario controlling a sustainable gallop unchallenged and a congested midfield unable to run freely to the rear, this race shape strongly favours horses who travel prominently or in the first half of the field and produce a smooth, uninterrupted run into the straight — the prominent-to-midfield profile that can track the pace without fighting for position is the primary beneficiary.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Nazario Controls, Prominent Win
52% probability
If Nazario dictates an honest but uncontested gallop and the prominent trackers get a clear passage into the Curragh straight.
Nazario sets the fractions from the front with no challenger for the lead, allowing runners like Caislean Ni Cuan and Rosato to track in a position of maximum efficiency before unleashing their finishing kick on fast ground; the uncrowded lead rail rewards these horses over the congested hold-up pack who cannot split.
NazarioCaislean Ni CuanRosatoGo Athletico
B
Closer Finds Gap Late
22% probability
If Nazario's early pace is genuinely strong enough to stretch the field and create a gap down the rail for a hold-up type to thread through.
A true closer like Go Athletico or Gerrit's Gem, given a clear split in the final furlong, could collect horses who have raced prominently and tied up on the good-to-firm ground; this shape requires precise jockeyship from Ronan Whelan or Scott McCullagh to time the run.
Go AthleticoGerrit's GemLohoobbSovereign Cry
C
Modest Pace, Midfield Surge
17% probability
If Nazario's gallop is too conservative and a cluster of midfield horses arrive together at the two-furlong pole.
A compression in the field creates a scramble from two furlongs out with horses like Lohoobb and Hugo's Girl — both consistent placers in similar conditions — able to pick off tiring leaders in the final 100 yards; the good-to-firm surface keeps the race sharp enough that only the most consistent placers profit.
LohoobbHugo's GirlSovereign CryMint Man
D
Pace Collapse, Outsider Pounces
9% probability
If the race shape breaks down entirely and an unconsidered runner finds an uncontested run through a gap.
A horse like Nouvel Espoir or Aurora Nova, shuffled forward from their natural rear position, finds themselves racing closer than usual and simply outstays rivals who have burned energy fighting for position; this shape is low-probability precisely because so many runners are out of role and the race is unlikely to fall this chaotically.
Nouvel EspoirAurora NovaBeat The DevilMint Man
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Nazario's rider Rory Mulligan must manage the pace honestly — if he dawdles in front with 14 hold-up horses hunting him down, he risks being overwhelmed in the final furlong and turning this race into a chaotic pile-up from which any backmarker could profit.
WATCH
Jon Riggens, Hugo's Girl and All Hail are genuine hold-up horses being mapped into midfield positions — watch for significant barging and interference in the first two furlongs as all three attempt to find their natural rhythm in an unusually congested mid-division.
WATCH
Beat The Devil's trip reduction from 18f to 6f is extreme and bears monitoring for distress signals in the early stages — if this horse gets worked up in the preliminaries or breaks poorly, it could cause interference for nearby runners.
NOTE
Yutori has not raced in 177 days and drops dramatically in trip from AW routes to a 6f turf sprint — watch market moves as any significant support would suggest the stable has done specific work for this race, otherwise treat as a likely non-factor.
NOTE
Good-to-firm ground confirmed for this slot throughout the card — horses who have a CONCERN flag on fast ground would be penalised here, but every runner is tagged OK, meaning the draw and jockey positioning across a 15-runner field becomes the primary variable to watch from the stalls.
5:10 — Money Back Daily Specials With Tote.ie Handicap
1m · Good · HCAP · 12 runners
Kalir likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Kalir led, as the map showed.
Kalir won at 7.00 — led, as the map had it.
4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Kalir
Prominent · 3
Playin CoolGlory To BeGlitter And Glory
Midfield · 4
Summer IslandMarmeladovaGoal ExceededNo More Porter
Hold Up · 4
BooyeaFinal VoyageDark ViperHowyoulikethat
Kalir is the one confirmed front-runner in this 12-runner field and, with no direct rival to press him hard from the gates, he is likely to dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop on Good to Firm ground at the Curragh's flat mile. Glory To Be, Playin Cool and Glitter And Glory are genuine prominent types who will push to track Kalir closely, giving the race a clear front group without a true pace battle erupting. The resulting shape — a genuine but unhurried gallop set by Kalir, with a cluster of prominent horses sitting within a length or two — classically favours runners who can sit just off the early pace and produce a sustained finish, rather than deep closers who need a truly honest tempo to generate momentum from behind. Several of the hold-up horses in this field (Summer Island, Marmeladova, Goal Exceeded, No More Porter) are true rear-of-field types who are unlikely to secure their natural position given how many others want to race in a similar area, meaning their finishing kicks may be diluted or compromised by traffic; the prominent runners and those who travel sweetly just off the pace are structurally best placed.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Kalir Controls; Prominent Prevails
55% probability
If Kalir secures a comfortable lead and sets an honest but unhurried pace, allowing the prominent horses to travel on the bridle.
Kalir rolls along at a sustainable clip, the pace cluster of Glory To Be, Playin Cool and Glitter And Glory sit just behind him, and the race develops into a straight-line stamina test where those with positional advantage and good form on Good to Firm simply outrun the closers.
Glory To BePlayin CoolKalirGlitter And Glory
B
Pace Dries Up; Late Surge
20% probability
If Kalir's lead is exceptionally slow and the prominent group overdoses on a false pace, leaving a vacuum for any genuine finisher.
A crawl sets up a bunch finish into the Curragh straight, but only the truest hold-up horses who manage to find clear running will benefit; Dark Viper and Booyea, both proven on this ground and suited to coming from off a slow pace, are best positioned among the back-half types.
Dark ViperBooyeaSummer IslandHowyoulikethat
C
Honest Gallop; Closers Pounce
15% probability
If the prominent group pushes on more assertively than expected, turning the race into a genuine test of stamina and creating ground for hold-up horses.
A stronger pace thins out the prominent group and opens a lane for closers, though this scenario relies on redistributed types like Summer Island and Marmeladova getting a clean passage from compromised positions.
Summer IslandDark ViperMarmeladovaNo More Porter
D
Disrupted Break; Chaos Scenario
10% probability
If a ragged start or early scrimmaging reshuffles the field and negates Kalir's positional advantage.
Kalir loses his uncontested lead and the tactical picture becomes confused, with mid-division horses like Dark Viper or Final Voyage benefiting from any repositioning as the field concertinas entering the straight.
Final VoyageDark ViperGoal ExceededHowyoulikethat
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Kalir's early pace is the race-shaper — watch whether Chris Hayes sends him straight to the front without a challenge, as an uncontested lead at a sustainable gallop maximises the chance of the prominent group finishing fresh and the hold-up horses being left with too much to do.
WATCH
Summer Island, Marmeladova and No More Porter are all genuine hold-up horses competing for the same limited rear-of-field positions; a crowded closing stretch could see legitimate finishing runs shut off — watch the draw and early positioning of all three.
WATCH
Dark Viper's trainer Harrington has had three winners from 36 runs in the last 14 days and Shane Foley rides — this combination from a horse with genuine Curragh form at this trip could be the most dangerous in the prominent-to-midfield switch if the pace lifts in the straight.
NOTE
Final Voyage returns from an 84-day break for the JP Murtagh stable with a 7lb claimer aboard; watch the market move for signals that the yard has this horse ready, as a fresh return to form at 10f Good suggests the ability is there if the fitness is present.
NOTE
Glitter And Glory represents the Harrington yard (same as Dark Viper) and brings the lightest weight in the field at 119lbs — watch whether the apprentice Kennedy settles her prominently, as her consistent recent placing record on Good at this trip makes her a liveweight factor in the straight.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.